So where are all the people that complain about the women being paid the same as the men on the tennis Tour? The Final between Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams was full of world class tennis and while the match was completed in two sets, it was still a fascinating two sets that the fans got to enjoy.
Serena Williams winning the title was less of a surprise considering her dominance of Maria Sharapova in the head to head, but it was close a match as they have had in recent seasons and she has to take the positives from the match. Of course the negative view, which I did have immediately after the match, was that Sharapova had given it her absolute best and still couldn't take a set off of Williams.
Hopefully we will get answers to whether Sharapova is getting closer to finally beating Williams for the first time since the end of the 2004 season over the course of the season. With the way these two played in the Final, whose to argue that we won't see at least one more Grand Slam Final competed by the top two players in the World Rankings.
I will be doing a live blog for the men's Final between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray on Sunday morning so hopefully some of you can join me then.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Andy Murray: I remember reading an article last season where Novak Djokovic was essentially implying that him and his team think they have the physical edge over Andy Murray and that is a big reason for his strong winning record against the British Number 1.
However, the big question for me going into the Australian Open Final is what kind of condition does Novak Djokovic feel in at the moment- he admitted there were lapses in the Semi Final win over Stan Wawrinka, although he would have been very pleased to get through the fifth set in timely manner after allowing an early break to get away from him in the fourth set.
Djokovic came into the Grand Slam tournament with doubts about his fitness following an illness and there is a suggestion that he isn't fully recovered. He will also be coming up against Andy Murray who has shown he is close to being back to his best over the last two weeks and looks in great condition.
Murray has been more aggressive in his play and he will have to bring that kind of mentality into this one if he is to win his third Grand Slam title by beating Novak Djokovic. He has done that at the US Open and at Wimbledon, but their most recent Slam encounter came at the US Open last September and was won by Djokovic.
There is no doubt that Murray will believe he is in much better shape than he was in September, and he looks a lot happier on the court than he did at any time during the 2014 season as he recovered from back surgery. He also seems to be playing with a chip on his shoulder surrounding the criticism of his appointing Amelie Mauresmo as his Coach, but all of this won't matter if the World Number 1 is on form.
The match is going to be won or lost by Novak Djokovic in my opinion- if he is physically feeling good, I would think he will come through the tough first couple of sets before pulling away from Murray. This has been a feature of their previous matches at Grand Slam level, outside of that Final at Wimbledon, and Djokovic is more than capable of adding yet another Australian Open trophy to his ever-increasing trophy cabinet.
At the US Open last season, the first two sets were split before Djokovic lost just 6 more games in the final two sets. At the Australian Open two years ago, the first two sets were split before Djokovic went on to lose just 7 more games.
The US Open that Murray won against Djokovic saw Murray win the first two sets 76, 75 before winning just 7 games in the next two sets before the Serb was finally exhausted.
That is becoming something of a trend that Djokovic can come through the long tough sets and be in a better place physically and that is my biggest concern about this match. Andy Murray can win it if Djokovic is feeling tired, but I think they split the first two sets before the World Number 1 takes control and comes through in four sets.
The Final between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray should be a good one between two players that have known each other a long time and faced off in numerous Grand Slam Finals already. The World Number 1 goes off as the favourite, but there are some question marks about his physical shape ahead of the match which will be answered over the next three hours.
Novak Djokovic 1-0* Andy Murray: A comfortable opening service game for Novak Djokovic with some quality tennis to show he has settled in.
Novak Djokovic *1-1 Andy Murray: Andy Murray's second serve lets him down somewhat and that is going to be a key to this match. It is an attackable shot and Djokovic wins three points against it to get to deuce.
However, a bad call from one of the line judges helps Murray get out of that game.
Djokovic 2-1* Murray: A couple of blistering forehands from Andy Murray help him bring up three break points in a row, the first of the match.
But Novak Djokovic shows why he is the World Number 1 with a couple of top serves before Murray misses his third chance by failing to get a ball back in play.
Twice Djokovic gets up to the net to put away a couple of volleys... He also has a drop shot early in the match which will raise some questions about how he is feeling physically.
Djokovic *3-1 Murray: Novak Djokovic doesn't mind trading from the back of the court in this game and he hits three absolutely brilliant winners to bring up three consecutive break points of his own.
He misses the first when perhaps he shouldn't have, but then Djokovic hits a clean winner off yet another wide serve from Andy Murray to the forehand and moves ahead.
Djokovic 4-1* Murray: Andy Murray wins the first point of the game, but Novak Djokovic has really got the shot down the line working from both the forehand and backhand wins.
No moves forward since the third game, but Djokovic still comfortably comes through to hold.
Djokovic*4-2 Murray: It looks like Novak Djokovic is not going to be shy about coming to the net in this one once he has Andy Murray on the move.
Comfortable enough hold for Murray in the end, but the aggressive tennis definitely being played by Djokovic and his shots down the line are still working off both wings.
Djokovic 4-3* Murray: Andy Murray brings up two break points after Novak Djokovic decides to try serve-volley tactics which results in a pass for the British Number 1.
The first of those is saved with another shot down the line bringing an error from the Murray racquet, but I imagine Murray will be a lot more disappointed with the way he missed the second after a forehand error following a dominant rally.
Not the end of this chances though as another break point is brought up and Murray is perhaps a little fortunate to find a couple of lines before another Djokovic error helps Murray bring this back on serve.
Djokovic *5-3 Murray: Just when it looks like Andy Murray is beginning to win the longer rallies, Novak Djokovic digs deep to pull this game back to 30-30.
The Serb is then the beneficiary of a fortunate net cord which bounces out and produces a break point to take command of the set again.
He can't make it four points in a row though with an absolutely stunning miss on a second serve return, just what you wouldn't expect from the best returner on the ATP Tour.
Another break point is earned from a Murray error and this time Djokovic does get the second serve return into play which is quickly followed by another error from the other side of the net.
Djokovic 5-4* Murray: Some great defensive lobs from Andy Murray, plus some poor smash/volleys from Novak Djokovic help build a 15-30 lead.
A wonderful backhand down the line brings up two break points and there is no doubt that Djokovic has some type of problem with his thumb. A tentative rally is finally ended by an injection of pace from Murray which leads to a forced error and going back on serve.
Djokovic *5-5 Murray: Trainer on to see Novak Djokovic who is also pretty disgusted with some loud noises coming from the crowd midway during the last point.
There seem to be a lot of errors ending points, but the quality of tennis can't be under-stated between these two players.
Andy Murray moves through the game comfortably to level the set.
Djokovic 6-5* Murray: It just feels like Andy Murray is building up some steam in this set now as he wins the first point against serve in the eleventh game of the set.
Some big serving gets Novak Djokovic through the game comfortably from there though.
Djokovic 6-6 Murray: This time it is Andy Murray having a little moan at the umpire during the changeover as he comes out to serve to stay in the set.
A brutal opening rally is followed by three quick points for Murray and yet again these two have to go into a tie break in the first set of a Grand Slam Final.
Djokovic 7-6* Murray: This now means four of their last five Grand Slam matches have needed a tie-break to separate these two in the first set.
Novak Djokovic can't make a much worse start by double faulting away the first point, but he retrieves the mini-break before getting the balls back.
Another error from Djokovic and a heavy backhand down the line from Murray means it is the latter who leads on the turnaround by 4 points to 2.
Ouch- Murray with a terrible double fault to hand back the mini-break advantage and then another long, brutal rally ends with Murray dumping the ball into the net and it is back to 4-4. Loads of tension now and the winner of this set is going to strike a significant blow it feels.
Yet another error from Murray gives Novak Djokovic a 5-4 lead, but the British Number 1 isn't taking a backwards step at the moment. There has been some great tennis in this set despite the obvious tension that both players have played with at times.
Great defence from Djokovic, but a really poor miss from Murray at the net and it is the Number 1 Seed with set point. The errors have been streaming from Murray's racquet in the last moments of this set and another on a second serve return gives Djokovic the set.
Djokovic *7-6, 0-1 Murray: So how much of an impact will that have on Andy Murray? It wasn't just losing the set, but the manner of the way he dropped it and the effort, both physical and mental, that he has already exerted in the match.
Murray has to open the second set serving well and he does that with a hold to 15.
Djokovic 7-6, 0-2* Murray: I am still not convinced that Djokovic is at 100% from a physical standpoint and there have been a couple of 'limps' during his first service game of the set.
Two break points for Andy Murray and Djokovic is gesturing uncomfortably to his box- maybe going to need the trainer for a different body part in a moment as it looks he has done something to his ankle.
Murray only needs the first to move ahead in the second set.
Djokovic *7-6, 1-2 Murray: Better movement from Novak Djokovic during this game considering how he was looking five minutes ago and that has brought up a break point.
Poor game from Murray after he dumps the ball into the middle of the net and hands back the initiative to his opponent.
Djokovic 7-6, 2-2* Murray: Andrew Castle and John Lloyd, essentially glorified Murray cheerleaders, seem to be a little critical of Djokovic's body language, but it isn't like Murray hasn't used those 'tactics' in the past.
Match is so up and down at the moment and it is Murray who builds a 0-30 lead in this one, but he just can't stem the errors coming from his racquet.
Four straight points levels up the set for Novak Djokovic.
Djokovic *7-6, 3-2 Murray: The alarm bells must be going off for Andy Murray as he can't stem the tide of errors coming from his racquet and it brings up three break points for Novak Djokovic.
Just needs one of those points and Djokovic is now up a break after being down 2-0 early in the set.
Djokovic 7-6, 4-2* Murray: Andy Murray can't get any control back in this match and the errors continue to stream off the racquet. Ace for Djokovic wraps up hold to love and consolidates his break.
Djokovic *7-6, 4-3 Murray: Ding, ding, ding... Double fault to open the game puts more pressure on Andy Murray, but he does very well to turn it around and win three straight points before a big serve helps him take the game to 30.
Still in this set, but only just at the moment.
Djokovic 7-6, 4-4* Murray: Bit of extra drama off the court as some sort of protest holds things up at the changeover. Bloody fools.
Momentum was all in the direction of Novak Djokovic prior to that, but I do wonder if that has broken that run.
At 15-30, you can't afford to miss the second serve return, but that is what Murray does which is followed by another loud anguished cry. Definitely been a more aggressive Murray in this game and that brings up a break point.
At times Murray can sometimes take a backwards step in the big moments, but not this time and the aggression brings the set level again.
Djokovic *7-6, 4-5 Murray: You can't say that idiotic protest hasn't worked in favour of Andy Murray who comfortably comes through his service game.
Novak Djokovic serving to stay in the set.
Djokovic 7-6, 5-5* Murray: A big miss from Andy Murray at 15-0 sees the British player scolding himself, and helps Novak Djokovic build a 40-0 lead as he serves to stay in this set.
Lots of quality tennis mixed in with some unforced errors as the tension rises.
Poor volleying from Djokovic means we are back at deuce, and another error gives Murray his first set point.
Murray just gets a little tense again at the big moment and dumps a ball into the net.
Long game this one, but Djokovic takes his third chance to get out of it and the quality of tennis is once again getting up to the level of what we saw in the first set.
Djokovic *7-6, 5-6 Murray: No mention from Cheerleader Lloyd or Cheerleader Castle, but the protest break has really helped Andy Murray get back into this set. However, he missed the big chance to move into a third set and all the pressure is on him to make sure he stays ahead and at least forces a tie-breaker.
The net-cord goes Murray's way in this hugely important eleventh game, but a Djokovic service return winner brings it back to 30 all.
The service hold in the last game has brought Djokovic's best tennis back to the fore and he carries that over to earn a break point.
First one is saved with a decent first serve, but Djokovic hits another winner to bring up a second break point although Murray keeps hanging on by his finger tips.
Great defensive skills from Djokovic lead to yet another break point, but Murray's will is yet to shatter.
Two huge points from Murray to hold on to serve and at least earn a tie-break out of set two.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-6 Murray: You can see why so few people who actually follow tennis through the season can take Andrew Castle seriously- he has concluded these two are the top two players in the world, but it seems to be based on this one tournament, a completely false assertion.
On the court, Novak Djokovic serves to love and it is a second tie-breaker in this Final.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7 Murray: This hasn't been an uncommon occurrence either- two of the last three Grand Slam matches between the pair before today saw the first two sets end in tie-breakers. Absolutely vital for Murray to win this one you'd feel and he quickly moves into a 4-1 lead.
A sense of deja vu with Murray leading 4-2 as the players turn around on the court.
Commanding lead for Murray now as he goes a double mini-break up and now has two serves to win the second set.
Four set points for Murray- two go by, but the third is taken and it's 1-1 in set.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 0-1* Murray: Outside of that Final at Wimbledon in 2013, this match has very strong resemblances to three of their last four Grand Slam matches against one another. The first two sets on each of those occasions has lasted 25, 26 and 26 games, but it is Novak Djokovic who has then taken control of the next two sets on each of those occasions by winning sets 62, 64, 62, 63, 62, 63.
Djokovic has noted he feels he can physically out-last Murray if he is in this position so now he has the time to prove it.
It isn't going to plan right now though with Andy Murray bringing up two break points immediately- he takes the first of those and moves ahead in this Final for the first time.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 0-2 Murray: The physical strength is on the side of Andy Murray early in this third set and Novak Djokovic barely made an effort in that game.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 1-2* Murray: Easy game for Novak Djokovic, which is exactly what the doctor would have ordered.
Needs to find some inspiration from somewhere though to get back into this set.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 2-2 Murray: Maybe that return of serve winner will be the inspiration I was talking about! Net cord also doesn't go Andy Murray's way and Novak Djokovic has a slight opening at 0-30.
Well, well, well, it's more than an opening as two break points are brought up by Djokovic- Murray complains about Djokovic perhaps 'faking' which is ironic, and Novak takes a second break point to get back on serve.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 3-2* Murray: Andy Murray is furious at the end of that game as Novak Djokovic battles through to take the lead in this set. Out of the two, Djokovic is showing more signs of tiredness so I am wondering if his Semi Final being played a day later is having an impact.
Momentum back on the Serbian's side though.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 3-3 Murray: Easy hold for Andy Murray, but I think that is also down to the fact that Novak Djokovic is perhaps conserving some energy.
Not the time to be running around, defending, while the score is 40-0.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 4-3* Murray: There just seems to be a little more coming from Andy Murray's side of the court, especially once the rallies move beyond the four/five shots.
Break point but a huge play from Novak Djokovic to hold on with a drop volley that Andy Murray barely missed getting to. Big serving sees the Serb hold serve.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 5-3 Murray:The commentary provided by Andrew Castle is easily the worst aspect of this Final so far as he 'doesn't like' Novak Djokovic celebrating saving the break point with his box... Without swearing.
Unlike Kim Sears abusing Tomas Berdych of course, which was hilarious(!)
Huge start to this game for Novak Djokovic who moves into a 0-30 lead and has Andy Murray complaining to his box about something or other.
Three break points and Andy Murray is absolutely fuming.
Saved the first with a big serve, but pressure gets to Murray and he double faults the game away which means Novak Djokovic serves for the set.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 6-3* Murray: Andy Murray is furious, but his attempted racquet 'smash' is appalling!
Positive sounds from Murray after he takes the first point of this game, but he doesn't build on it as he produces three errors in a row to give Novak Djokovic two set points.
Djokovic takes the third set with a big serve.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 1-0 Murray: I did mention the strength of Novak Djokovic over Andy Murray in their three previous Grand Slam matches that have seen at least 25 games played in the first two sets. It was another 6-3 set for Djokovic and this is the time for Murray to show if he has really improved as a player from a physical standpoint.
He was beginning to show outward signs of tiredness at the end of the third set so opening game of fourth is critical for him to get his nose in front.
Pressure already on Murray as he serves at 30 all and Djokovic pummels a second serve onto the baseline to bring up break point.
Another error from the Murray racquet and it is Djokovic who takes it and moves into a commanding position in the match.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 2-0* Murray: It was 0-15, but Novak Djokovic produces a brilliant pass and then follows it with two big serves.
Great exchange at the net which Murray comes out on top, but those are getting less frequent and Djokovic consolidates the break.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 3-0 Murray: This could be the moment that this Final gets beyond Andy Murray as a couple of tired shots opens the door for Novak Djokovic at 15-30.
Big serve from Murray is returned to the middle of the court, but he inexplicably misses and it is two more break points for Djokovic to take a double break into the changeover.
Second serve is returned for a winner and Novak Djokovic is three games from the title with a double break.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 4-0* Murray: The mishits are more frequent, and the physical strength is definitely on Novak Djokovic's side of the court.
There will be no giving up by Andy Murray as Novak Djokovic makes a couple of really poor decisions to fall back to deuce, but solid serving and dictating the points helps the World Number 1 consolidate the double break.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 5-0 Murray: No one wants to see someone suffer a bagel in a Final, but Andy Murray is going to have to put a lot of effort into this game to prevent that happening.
Any energy levels left for a comeback will have to be used now as Murray goes 0-30 behind and now he has to save two break points.
A huge return from Djokovic lands way in and Murray effectively gives it up by opting to challenge and that looks like game, set and Championship for Novak Djokovic.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 6-0: So Novak Djokovic has won 11 of the last 12 games with his physical strength overmatching Andy Murray again.
Djokovic openly said this after their US Open Quarter Final- as long as Murray doesn't get too big a lead, Djokovic feels he can physically out-last him on a tennis court.
Happened in two of the last three Grand Slam matches they have played, and definitely happened again today.
Novak Djokovic takes the second match point and is the Australian Open Champion for the fifth time in a row.
Novak Djokovic Wins the Australian Open Men's Title: It looked a little iffy for Novak Djokovic at the beginning of the third set, but I think it is a really big worry in the manner that Andy Murray fell apart.
Physically he is unable to stay with someone like Djokovic and that is tough for a player that doesn't always want to take the aggressive approach to matches and settles into these long rallies that is draining him more than the World Number 1.
I don't buy that the negativity cost Andy Murray in that match like John Lloyd was suggesting and I don't blame the fact that he has Amelie Mauresmo in his corner- this isn't about a lack of talent, this is about someone who just doesn't have that extra physicality on the court that Novak Djokovic can bring.
At the very top of sport, these 'minor' differences are the ones that create 'greatness' compared with someone who is 'very good'.
And those gaps are very tough to bridge- the only way for Murray to do that is to shorten points, don't get drawn into the long rallies and try and conserve energy for the latter stages of these matches against the very best players.
It's a good start to the 2015 season for Murray, but he might have to go back to the tactics board when he does run into Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal later in the season.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic Win 3-1 @ 4.20 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Australian Open Update: 35-23, + 26.15 Units (110 Units Staked, + 23.77% Yield)
Saturday, 31 January 2015
Super Bowl XLIX Pick- Seattle Seahawks v New England Patriots (Sunday 1st February 2015)
The time for talking is over as we get set to say goodbye to the 2014 NFL season- the 49th edition of the Super Bowl comes from Arizona as the New England Patriots get set to take on the Seattle Seahawks.
I have taken a few days to really get to grips with my pick and seem to be going with the popular choice from the NFL players and journalists that have made their decision on which team they believe will win the Championship. It is a season when the spread doesn't really matter as the teams can't be separated by the layers so it simply comes down to a choice of which of these teams you believe will win.
I am looking to extend my run to 4 straight Super Bowl winners this season and I have my pick below.
Seattle Seahawks v New England Patriots: For the second season in succession, the Number 1 Seed from the AFC plays the Number 1 Seed from the NFC in the Super Bowl. This year it is the Seattle Seahawks (14-4) taking on the New England Patriots (14-4) in Super Bowl XLIX which will come from the home of the Arizona Cardinals.
Both teams made it to the Super Bowl in contrasting fashion, although the Patriots win has been tainted a little from 'Deflate-Gate' which has dominated the media over the last two weeks. New England crushed the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Conference Championship, but it was later revealed that the balls had not been inflated to the League's minimum requirement, an issue which makes it 'easier' to throw and catch in the rainy conditions we saw at Foxboro two weeks ago.
Most of the Colts team have made it clear that they don't believe there was any reason to think the game would have ended much differently, but the Patriots have previous which has made this a story. It was only a few seasons ago that Bill Belichick was fined half a million dollars and the Patriots lost Draft picks following 'Spy-Gate' when caught filming the signals of their opposition and this is another issue where many are saying the New England successes have not been clean.
The blame on this occasion shifted from Belichick and the spotlight was on Tom Brady, but the NFL have tried to put the issue to bed by saying they will deal with the outcome of their investigation following the Super Bowl. The Patriots may try and use the whole furore to rally the troops together, but they are facing the defending Champions who look to become the first team in ten years to repeat.
The Seattle Seahawks somehow got through the NFC Conference Championship Game against the Green Bay Packers and I am still not sure how they won that game. The Seahawks were down by 12 points with less than five minutes remaining, but it seems the footballing gods were on their side as they converted a number of unbelievable plays to knock off the Packers.
A Touchdown brought Seattle to 5 points behind Green Bay, but they then converted an onside kick, scored another Touchdown before converting a 'Hail Mary' two point play and then scored a winning Touchdown in Overtime. It was one of the most surreal endings to any NFL game that I have seen, let alone one with so much on the line and the Packers must still be wondering how they have lost on 2 of their last 3 visits to the tough Seattle environment.
The big question out of that game against Green Bay was the health of Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas, but both are going to be available this Sunday. Sherman is expected to be a father at some point over the next seven days, but it would be extremely bad timing for him to miss this game.
Sherman has been making himself available to the media all through the week, but one of the more ridiculous stories has been concerning Marshawn Lynch. That isn't me criticising the Running Back either because I think it is a farce to ask Lynch to have to talk to the media when he is clearly not comfortable doing so. We have then been treated to Lynch saying the same thing over and over again for five minutes and writers going home to make headlines about the whole thing... As I said, ridiculous!
The Seattle Seahawks had to come from 13 points behind to beat the New England Patriots when they last met in 2012. That game was played in Seattle and is now known as the 'you mad bro?' Game following a tweet that Richard Sherman sent out after the game.
PICK: I have been going back and forth about this game ever since it was set two weeks ago, but I think I have perhaps been over thinking things. Both the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks match up well against one another, but I was convinced the NFC is the better Conference and I think Seattle prove that by winning back to back Championships.
I will be absolutely honest with you- I don't like either of these teams. Being a Miami Dolphin fan means the New England Patriots will always be a big rival, but they have also been very successful and that does breed a little more dislike. The Seahawks have never really been a team I was overly concerned about, but I can't be the only person who hates seeing any team with their 'bandwagon support' and my dislike comes from the amount of two year fans the Seahawks have picked up.
That does help me clear my head for this game though and look at it from a very cold perspective, which is always the best way when it comes to making picks. I try and put my heart aside when it comes to making picks, but I will admit it couldn't be any easier in this game!
It does seem like the sharps are all over the under at the moment with that total shrinking over the last two weeks and that is understandable. Despite the 40 plus points that New England scored against Indianapolis, the Patriots are not the quick strike Offense that went unbeaten in the regular season in 2007 and instead take a much more methodical approach to their games.
Seattle are the same, although Russell Wilson can air it out at times, and both Defenses are very strong so this game may be 'shortened' with the clock running through plays on the ground and quick passes being completed.
Tom Brady will have success against the Legion of Boom simply because he is unlikely to be testing them deep down the field and instead will look to his possession Receivers like Julian Edelman, Shane Vereen and Rob Gronkowski to take his short passes and produce yards after the catch. LeGarrette Blount is a punishing Running Back, but it won't be easy for him to produce a big game against this Seattle Defense, while the Seahawks will feel they can rattle Brady with their four man pass rush.
I expect the New England Patriots will use the blueprint set out by the San Diego Chargers in a win over Seattle earlier this season, although the Seahawks are playing better now. Philip Rivers used quick plays to prolong drives in a methodical manner which kept the Seattle Defense out of sync and I imagine New England will try and do the same.
If Blount can get something going on the ground, the Patriots will definitely have a chance to win this game, but the feeling is that the Seattle Defense can keep Brady in third and long on enough occasions to force punts or mistakes.
While the Seattle Secondary will receive all the attention thanks to a nice moniker, the New England Secondary is also one of the best in the NFL. Darrelle Revis is very comfortable in the system ran by Bill Belichick and he will take away one Receiver, although Seattle don't have one big threat in those positions. Brandon Browner will want to give away some of the secrets of the Seattle Defense to his team, but the Corner Back can sometimes be a penalty machine in the Secondary and Russell Wilson will know that.
On the other hand, Seattle may not need to make big plays against the Secondary with Marshawn Lynch likely to have a good match up against the Patriots run Defense. New England have actually been an improving unit on the ground, but they haven't faced someone like Lynch who is capable of breaking tackles and creating big gains when there seemingly aren't any.
Lynch might not have the success early in the game, but his style wears down Defenses and the second half might when he explodes for some big gains. The threat is magnified by the fact that Russell Wilson is capable of getting out of the pocket and making gains on the ground and I think it will be tough for the Patriots unless they jump out to a very big lead.
Wilson helped Green Bay do that with his Interceptions thrown, but it is hard to imagine Seattle making those mistakes again and that should keep the running game very much a part of their plans. I also think the Seattle Defense is going to make enough big plays to keep New England from getting too far ahead and my lean is towards Seattle in this game.
Teams playing in back to back Super Bowls haven't played that well in recent seasons, although the last two have managed to win the game. Prior to that, 5 in a row had lost when returning to the Super Bowl, although the Buffalo Bills have accounted for 2 of those back when they reached the Super Bowl in four straight seasons.
There are other trends that really do favour Seattle in this game including the fact that New England have lost the last 2 Super Bowls they have played, both against the New York Giants and one of those in this Stadium. The Patriots also have to overcome the statistic that shows teams scoring 40 or more points in the Play Offs are just 3-22 against the spread in their next game.
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks have also raised their game when they meet teams led by Super Bowl winning Quarter Backs and everything is pointing to them being the right side. I do have respect for Bill Belichick and the Defensive game plan he will have put in place with two weeks preparation for this game, but the NFC is the better Conference and I always felt they are the more likely winner of the Super Bowl this season regardless of which team came through.
The NFC are 4-1 in the Super Bowl over the last five seasons and the only exception was the San Francisco 49ers who had shots at the end zone to beat the Baltimore Ravens two years ago. The spread is virtually a pick 'em now so I will just back the Seattle Seahawks to win.
MY PICK: Seattle Seahawks @ 1.95 Bet Victor (3 Units)
I have taken a few days to really get to grips with my pick and seem to be going with the popular choice from the NFL players and journalists that have made their decision on which team they believe will win the Championship. It is a season when the spread doesn't really matter as the teams can't be separated by the layers so it simply comes down to a choice of which of these teams you believe will win.
I am looking to extend my run to 4 straight Super Bowl winners this season and I have my pick below.
Seattle Seahawks v New England Patriots: For the second season in succession, the Number 1 Seed from the AFC plays the Number 1 Seed from the NFC in the Super Bowl. This year it is the Seattle Seahawks (14-4) taking on the New England Patriots (14-4) in Super Bowl XLIX which will come from the home of the Arizona Cardinals.
Both teams made it to the Super Bowl in contrasting fashion, although the Patriots win has been tainted a little from 'Deflate-Gate' which has dominated the media over the last two weeks. New England crushed the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Conference Championship, but it was later revealed that the balls had not been inflated to the League's minimum requirement, an issue which makes it 'easier' to throw and catch in the rainy conditions we saw at Foxboro two weeks ago.
Most of the Colts team have made it clear that they don't believe there was any reason to think the game would have ended much differently, but the Patriots have previous which has made this a story. It was only a few seasons ago that Bill Belichick was fined half a million dollars and the Patriots lost Draft picks following 'Spy-Gate' when caught filming the signals of their opposition and this is another issue where many are saying the New England successes have not been clean.
The blame on this occasion shifted from Belichick and the spotlight was on Tom Brady, but the NFL have tried to put the issue to bed by saying they will deal with the outcome of their investigation following the Super Bowl. The Patriots may try and use the whole furore to rally the troops together, but they are facing the defending Champions who look to become the first team in ten years to repeat.
The Seattle Seahawks somehow got through the NFC Conference Championship Game against the Green Bay Packers and I am still not sure how they won that game. The Seahawks were down by 12 points with less than five minutes remaining, but it seems the footballing gods were on their side as they converted a number of unbelievable plays to knock off the Packers.
A Touchdown brought Seattle to 5 points behind Green Bay, but they then converted an onside kick, scored another Touchdown before converting a 'Hail Mary' two point play and then scored a winning Touchdown in Overtime. It was one of the most surreal endings to any NFL game that I have seen, let alone one with so much on the line and the Packers must still be wondering how they have lost on 2 of their last 3 visits to the tough Seattle environment.
The big question out of that game against Green Bay was the health of Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas, but both are going to be available this Sunday. Sherman is expected to be a father at some point over the next seven days, but it would be extremely bad timing for him to miss this game.
Sherman has been making himself available to the media all through the week, but one of the more ridiculous stories has been concerning Marshawn Lynch. That isn't me criticising the Running Back either because I think it is a farce to ask Lynch to have to talk to the media when he is clearly not comfortable doing so. We have then been treated to Lynch saying the same thing over and over again for five minutes and writers going home to make headlines about the whole thing... As I said, ridiculous!
The Seattle Seahawks had to come from 13 points behind to beat the New England Patriots when they last met in 2012. That game was played in Seattle and is now known as the 'you mad bro?' Game following a tweet that Richard Sherman sent out after the game.
PICK: I have been going back and forth about this game ever since it was set two weeks ago, but I think I have perhaps been over thinking things. Both the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks match up well against one another, but I was convinced the NFC is the better Conference and I think Seattle prove that by winning back to back Championships.
I will be absolutely honest with you- I don't like either of these teams. Being a Miami Dolphin fan means the New England Patriots will always be a big rival, but they have also been very successful and that does breed a little more dislike. The Seahawks have never really been a team I was overly concerned about, but I can't be the only person who hates seeing any team with their 'bandwagon support' and my dislike comes from the amount of two year fans the Seahawks have picked up.
That does help me clear my head for this game though and look at it from a very cold perspective, which is always the best way when it comes to making picks. I try and put my heart aside when it comes to making picks, but I will admit it couldn't be any easier in this game!
It does seem like the sharps are all over the under at the moment with that total shrinking over the last two weeks and that is understandable. Despite the 40 plus points that New England scored against Indianapolis, the Patriots are not the quick strike Offense that went unbeaten in the regular season in 2007 and instead take a much more methodical approach to their games.
Seattle are the same, although Russell Wilson can air it out at times, and both Defenses are very strong so this game may be 'shortened' with the clock running through plays on the ground and quick passes being completed.
Tom Brady will have success against the Legion of Boom simply because he is unlikely to be testing them deep down the field and instead will look to his possession Receivers like Julian Edelman, Shane Vereen and Rob Gronkowski to take his short passes and produce yards after the catch. LeGarrette Blount is a punishing Running Back, but it won't be easy for him to produce a big game against this Seattle Defense, while the Seahawks will feel they can rattle Brady with their four man pass rush.
I expect the New England Patriots will use the blueprint set out by the San Diego Chargers in a win over Seattle earlier this season, although the Seahawks are playing better now. Philip Rivers used quick plays to prolong drives in a methodical manner which kept the Seattle Defense out of sync and I imagine New England will try and do the same.
If Blount can get something going on the ground, the Patriots will definitely have a chance to win this game, but the feeling is that the Seattle Defense can keep Brady in third and long on enough occasions to force punts or mistakes.
While the Seattle Secondary will receive all the attention thanks to a nice moniker, the New England Secondary is also one of the best in the NFL. Darrelle Revis is very comfortable in the system ran by Bill Belichick and he will take away one Receiver, although Seattle don't have one big threat in those positions. Brandon Browner will want to give away some of the secrets of the Seattle Defense to his team, but the Corner Back can sometimes be a penalty machine in the Secondary and Russell Wilson will know that.
On the other hand, Seattle may not need to make big plays against the Secondary with Marshawn Lynch likely to have a good match up against the Patriots run Defense. New England have actually been an improving unit on the ground, but they haven't faced someone like Lynch who is capable of breaking tackles and creating big gains when there seemingly aren't any.
Lynch might not have the success early in the game, but his style wears down Defenses and the second half might when he explodes for some big gains. The threat is magnified by the fact that Russell Wilson is capable of getting out of the pocket and making gains on the ground and I think it will be tough for the Patriots unless they jump out to a very big lead.
Wilson helped Green Bay do that with his Interceptions thrown, but it is hard to imagine Seattle making those mistakes again and that should keep the running game very much a part of their plans. I also think the Seattle Defense is going to make enough big plays to keep New England from getting too far ahead and my lean is towards Seattle in this game.
Teams playing in back to back Super Bowls haven't played that well in recent seasons, although the last two have managed to win the game. Prior to that, 5 in a row had lost when returning to the Super Bowl, although the Buffalo Bills have accounted for 2 of those back when they reached the Super Bowl in four straight seasons.
There are other trends that really do favour Seattle in this game including the fact that New England have lost the last 2 Super Bowls they have played, both against the New York Giants and one of those in this Stadium. The Patriots also have to overcome the statistic that shows teams scoring 40 or more points in the Play Offs are just 3-22 against the spread in their next game.
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks have also raised their game when they meet teams led by Super Bowl winning Quarter Backs and everything is pointing to them being the right side. I do have respect for Bill Belichick and the Defensive game plan he will have put in place with two weeks preparation for this game, but the NFC is the better Conference and I always felt they are the more likely winner of the Super Bowl this season regardless of which team came through.
The NFC are 4-1 in the Super Bowl over the last five seasons and the only exception was the San Francisco 49ers who had shots at the end zone to beat the Baltimore Ravens two years ago. The spread is virtually a pick 'em now so I will just back the Seattle Seahawks to win.
MY PICK: Seattle Seahawks @ 1.95 Bet Victor (3 Units)
Australian Open Day 13 Picks 2015- Women's Final Live Blog
I am considering doing a live blog for the women's Final between Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams which takes place on Saturday morning and will use this post if I am going to do that.
First of all is my pick for the Final:
Serena Williams - 3.5 games v Maria Sharapova: There is a real feeling that Maria Sharapova won't have a better opportunity to snap her 15 match losing run against Serena Williams than in the Final of the Australian Open when they meet on Saturday.
The form of the two players suggests Sharapova has every chance of finally beating Williams for the first time since the end of the 2004 season, but there is some real mental pressure on the Russian having to overcome all the losses she has taken.
Serena Williams hasn't been at her best in the tournament, but she was producing arguably her best tennis in the last two Rounds and she has only lost one set from the last TWENTY-FOUR that these two have competed against one another. That is another huge mental barrier for Maria Sharapova to break through and she will need Williams to be short of her best if she is going to win this Grand Slam title.
Both players have similarities with the way they approach their tennis- both will look for a big serve to set their points up and have heavy returns off the ground. The forehand and backhands are powerful shots and both players look to dictate the points with those heavy shots to keep their opponent's on the back foot.
So why has Serena Williams dominated the head to head? It does look like Serena has the more consistent serve and won't serve the double faults at the rate that Sharapova does, while her second serve has a little more on it and is tougher to attack. The movement is also in favour of the American who is the slightly better defensive player and even these slight issues give her the edge in the contest.
There is also the added fire that Serena seems to bring to the court when she sees Maria Sharapova on the other side of the net and that has shown up in the head to head. Sharapova will have her chances in this one if she can play first strike tennis, but I do believe Williams is the one that is going to dictate the majority of the rallies and come through this match with a 63, 63 win and add her 19th Grand Slam trophy into the cabinet at home.
It is sod's law that my internet has been playing up a little this morning so I have had to join the live updates after the match has started. Just hit refresh on your browser for the updates.
Serena Williams 4-2* Maria Sharapova: Most people spent the rain delay talking about the illness that Serena Williams has been dealing with and how the delay was going to upset her rhythm.
Coming back out at 30-30 after a short delay is tough to do, but Serena Williams bangs down one big serve and one heavy shot down the line to move ahead by two games.
Serena Williams *5-2 Maria Sharapova: So much for the rain delay being a huge problem for Williams to deal with! Instead it is Sharapova who has been cooled off and who loses 4 straight points on serve to go down a double break.
Serena Williams 5-3* Maria Sharapova: A double fault is followed by a couple of big shots from Maria Sharapova to bring up three break points to save the set.
The first two are saved by big serves from Williams, but another double costs her one of her breaks.
Serena Williams *6-3 Maria Sharapova: I was wondering if that break would be a spark for Sharapova in this set, but Williams brings up three set points and then takes advantage of a net cord to take the first of those chances and put up the first set.
As well as Sharapova has played in that set, you have to wonder what her mind set is going to be as she drops another set against Serena Williams.
Big 'come on' from Williams to end that set too so I guess the coughing and illness is still very much at the back of her mind.
Serena Williams 6-3, 1-0* Maria Sharapova: The pressure is going to begin to build and build if Serena Williams continues serving like this- first game is comfortably held thanks to three big serves and then a big forehand down the line on the run.
Serena Williams *6-3, 1-1 Maria Sharapova: The commentators have just been wondering whether Maria Sharapova 'believes she can win' and are adamant that she does until the final point because of the competitor she is. The problem is that no matter how well you compete, the stats of losing 15 straight times to someone is going to play a part and to put that aside mentally is so tough to do.
Serena Williams has Maria Sharapova on the run again in this service game and the match is taking on a familiar pattern when these two players meet on the court as the heavier hitting from the American takes a toll.
Two more break points for Williams- the first is saved by an ace and the second saved by an unreturnable serve!
Another ace and a big forehand gets Sharapova out of the game and potentially a turning point in the match.
Serena Williams 6-3, 2-1* Maria Sharapova: Big serving has Maria Sharapova guessing a little bit about the direction it is coming in from and it is an easy hold to love for Serena Williams.
Sharapova is going to feel like she is constantly serving the way Serena rolled through the first two service games of this set. That brings its own pressure when you are playing catch up on the scoreboard too.
Serena Williams *6-3, 2-2 Maria Sharapova: Big mistake from Maria Sharapova to not play a Serena Williams mishit that hits the baseline to bring up 15 all.
Another error opened the door for Williams, but big time tennis from Sharapova to stay on serve.
Serena Williams 6-3, 3-2* Maria Sharapova: A huge return winner from Sharapova brings up 0-30 and opens the door for the break which is shut by two aces and an unreturned serve.
Another ace from Serena Williams wins the game and another huge 'come on' from the American which is clearly a response to the Sharapova 'come on' which followed the return winner to bring up 0-30.
If you didn't believe me when I said these two don't get on, that game perhaps highlighted a little of the animosity between them.
Serena Williams *6-3, 3-3 Maria Sharapova: It looks like this could be one of the easier service holds that Sharapova has had in the match as she quickly moves 30-0 up, but Serena Williams is going nowhere.
Some solid defensive play coupled with heavy aggressive ground strokes brings up another break point for the Number 1 Seed.
A very brave second serve prevents Williams from really attacking that break point and Sharapova holds on at the moment.
Serena missed a big chance to bring up a second break point when it looked like her defensive skills had paid off, and another unforced error keeps this match on serve.
Serena Williams 6-3, 4-3* Maria Sharapova: You have to admire the Sharapova mindset to come out of that game when it looked like the break was going to go against her.
A huge error from Serena Williams brings up 0-30 again on serve, the second service game in a row that has happened. A sense of deja vu for Sharapova as two big serves, one unreturned and one ace, levels the game and another ace moves Serena in front.
This time it won't be four straight points for Williams though- and then something completely strange has happened where it looks like Serena has game point but is forced to replay way after the fact.
That leads to a break point for Sharapova, but again it is two big serves that has turned the game around and an ace to wrap up the game.
It turns out Sharapova got the point for hindrance, which was surprising because I didn't notice anything in particular Williams did, but she didn't even make a move to argue the case. Still on serve in the second set, but the scoreboard pressure has to be building on Sharapova who continues to play catch up.
Serena Williams *6-3, 4-4 Maria Sharapova: Tremendous game from Sharapova, even if she did get away with a shocking volley to open it. Hold to 15 at the business end of the set is impressive.
Serena Williams 6-3, 5-4* Maria Sharapova: Anything you can do... Big serving from Serena Williams produce a hold to love and now she is on the brink of winning the Australian Open for the first time since 2010.
Been saying it all set, but pressure on Sharapova serving to stay in the match. She has handled playing from behind so well, but I can't help thinking how the match would have felt right now if Sharapova had forced Williams to serve out the first set rather than being broken.
Serena Williams *6-3, 5-5 Maria Sharapova: The way Sharapova has been handling this second set is impressive- from 0-15, a big second serve helps win one point and a huge forehand down the line helps her move in front.
Lack of first serves is an issue and a double fault means Williams is just two points from the title.
The defence of Williams, which I identified as being one of the key differences between the players that has led to this 15 match winning run for the American against Sharapova, forces an error and match point.
Absolutely stunning tennis from Sharapova has kept her in this set and it was only right that it took that kind of tennis for the Russian to save that match point.
Sharapova has gotten away with another drop shot and holds on- she might not be everyone's cup of team, but Sharapova has played so well and has to be admired no matter how this ends up.
Serena Williams 6-3, 6-5* Maria Sharapova: Some solid defence from Williams again, but eventually she can't keep the ball in play and a sniff of a chance for Sharapova at 30-30.
Take a guess what happens next? Yep, another ace at a big time for Williams to move ahead in the game, but Sharapova not done with this game just yet.
More big serving from the American, this one followed by a heavy forehand down the line, and then an ace to move back to the brink of the title.
This has been a set full of stunning tennis. Engrossing stuff for the play and also the way the two players are trying to dominate with their personalities with the 'come on' shouts.
Serena Williams 6-3, 6-6 Maria Sharapova: It would be disappointing if Sharapova was to break down here and lose the match- she deserves the chance to play a tie-break after the effort she has put into the set.
But it does mean coming through one more service game- two errors from Williams' racquet and an ace bring up three game points and it is a comfortable hold for the Russian.
Really good tennis from both.
Serena Williams 6-3, 6-6 Maria Sharapova: Clean winner from Maria Sharapova to open the tie-breaker, but the mini-break doesn't last very long after an error from the Number 2 Seed.
Williams returns the favour for the clean winner off serve to move up a mini-break in the breaker and uses a big ace and then a strong forehand to move clear for the first time in this set.
The two switch ends with Williams 4-2 up in the breaker, although Serena will feel she missed a big chance to earn a double mini-break in the final point there. How much more fight does Sharapova have in her?
Mistakes from Serena Williams has kept Sharapova in this breaker, and she does look a little tight at the moment.
There is so much emotion on the court and it is fascinating to see both of these players trying to keep a lid on things! Serena battles through a tough point to move 5-3 up, but another tight forehand error which is very wide of the court and we are back on serve with two to come from Sharapova.
Clean winner off the second serve from Serena Williams and that brings up two match points... Total respect for Sharapova in the manner she saves the first off a huge second serve-forehand combination.
But Serena is serving for the match.
Add to the drama with a let cord preventing the ace winner and a stare at the umpire from Serena Williams who had dropped her racquet! Same serve, another ace and Serena Williams has beaten Maria Sharapova for the 16th in a row to win her 19th Grand Slam title.
Serena Williams 6-3, 7-6: I have so much respect for the way that Maria Sharapova hung in during that second set when she was behind throughout and the battling she displayed in the tie-breaker, but it raises some tough questions for her.
The first is how can Maria Sharapova turn the tide after 16 straight losses to Serena Williams? She produced arguably her best tennis, but still couldn't take a set from the American and there is too much motivation for Serena when she steps on the court against Sharapova.
Williams has been caught cold in Grand Slam tournaments over the last two seasons, but Sharapova won't be someone that will ever have that benefit with their meetings likely to come at the business end of events. Add to that the motivation that Serena Williams clearly has behind her when she sees Sharapova on the other side of the court and it is tough to see this trend changing.
Again it was the defensive ability that Williams has compared to Sharapova and the bigger and more consistent serve that saw her come through. The rest of the game is similar, but those slight edges are enough for Williams to hold the key to winning these head to head matches.
It was a great Final and I hope the rest of the Slams live up to it.
MY PICK: Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Australian Open Update: 34-23, + 23.66 Units (107 Units Staked, + 22.11% Yield)
First of all is my pick for the Final:
Serena Williams - 3.5 games v Maria Sharapova: There is a real feeling that Maria Sharapova won't have a better opportunity to snap her 15 match losing run against Serena Williams than in the Final of the Australian Open when they meet on Saturday.
The form of the two players suggests Sharapova has every chance of finally beating Williams for the first time since the end of the 2004 season, but there is some real mental pressure on the Russian having to overcome all the losses she has taken.
Serena Williams hasn't been at her best in the tournament, but she was producing arguably her best tennis in the last two Rounds and she has only lost one set from the last TWENTY-FOUR that these two have competed against one another. That is another huge mental barrier for Maria Sharapova to break through and she will need Williams to be short of her best if she is going to win this Grand Slam title.
Both players have similarities with the way they approach their tennis- both will look for a big serve to set their points up and have heavy returns off the ground. The forehand and backhands are powerful shots and both players look to dictate the points with those heavy shots to keep their opponent's on the back foot.
So why has Serena Williams dominated the head to head? It does look like Serena has the more consistent serve and won't serve the double faults at the rate that Sharapova does, while her second serve has a little more on it and is tougher to attack. The movement is also in favour of the American who is the slightly better defensive player and even these slight issues give her the edge in the contest.
There is also the added fire that Serena seems to bring to the court when she sees Maria Sharapova on the other side of the net and that has shown up in the head to head. Sharapova will have her chances in this one if she can play first strike tennis, but I do believe Williams is the one that is going to dictate the majority of the rallies and come through this match with a 63, 63 win and add her 19th Grand Slam trophy into the cabinet at home.
It is sod's law that my internet has been playing up a little this morning so I have had to join the live updates after the match has started. Just hit refresh on your browser for the updates.
Serena Williams 4-2* Maria Sharapova: Most people spent the rain delay talking about the illness that Serena Williams has been dealing with and how the delay was going to upset her rhythm.
Coming back out at 30-30 after a short delay is tough to do, but Serena Williams bangs down one big serve and one heavy shot down the line to move ahead by two games.
Serena Williams *5-2 Maria Sharapova: So much for the rain delay being a huge problem for Williams to deal with! Instead it is Sharapova who has been cooled off and who loses 4 straight points on serve to go down a double break.
Serena Williams 5-3* Maria Sharapova: A double fault is followed by a couple of big shots from Maria Sharapova to bring up three break points to save the set.
The first two are saved by big serves from Williams, but another double costs her one of her breaks.
Serena Williams *6-3 Maria Sharapova: I was wondering if that break would be a spark for Sharapova in this set, but Williams brings up three set points and then takes advantage of a net cord to take the first of those chances and put up the first set.
As well as Sharapova has played in that set, you have to wonder what her mind set is going to be as she drops another set against Serena Williams.
Big 'come on' from Williams to end that set too so I guess the coughing and illness is still very much at the back of her mind.
Serena Williams 6-3, 1-0* Maria Sharapova: The pressure is going to begin to build and build if Serena Williams continues serving like this- first game is comfortably held thanks to three big serves and then a big forehand down the line on the run.
Serena Williams *6-3, 1-1 Maria Sharapova: The commentators have just been wondering whether Maria Sharapova 'believes she can win' and are adamant that she does until the final point because of the competitor she is. The problem is that no matter how well you compete, the stats of losing 15 straight times to someone is going to play a part and to put that aside mentally is so tough to do.
Serena Williams has Maria Sharapova on the run again in this service game and the match is taking on a familiar pattern when these two players meet on the court as the heavier hitting from the American takes a toll.
Two more break points for Williams- the first is saved by an ace and the second saved by an unreturnable serve!
Another ace and a big forehand gets Sharapova out of the game and potentially a turning point in the match.
Serena Williams 6-3, 2-1* Maria Sharapova: Big serving has Maria Sharapova guessing a little bit about the direction it is coming in from and it is an easy hold to love for Serena Williams.
Sharapova is going to feel like she is constantly serving the way Serena rolled through the first two service games of this set. That brings its own pressure when you are playing catch up on the scoreboard too.
Serena Williams *6-3, 2-2 Maria Sharapova: Big mistake from Maria Sharapova to not play a Serena Williams mishit that hits the baseline to bring up 15 all.
Another error opened the door for Williams, but big time tennis from Sharapova to stay on serve.
Serena Williams 6-3, 3-2* Maria Sharapova: A huge return winner from Sharapova brings up 0-30 and opens the door for the break which is shut by two aces and an unreturned serve.
Another ace from Serena Williams wins the game and another huge 'come on' from the American which is clearly a response to the Sharapova 'come on' which followed the return winner to bring up 0-30.
If you didn't believe me when I said these two don't get on, that game perhaps highlighted a little of the animosity between them.
Serena Williams *6-3, 3-3 Maria Sharapova: It looks like this could be one of the easier service holds that Sharapova has had in the match as she quickly moves 30-0 up, but Serena Williams is going nowhere.
Some solid defensive play coupled with heavy aggressive ground strokes brings up another break point for the Number 1 Seed.
A very brave second serve prevents Williams from really attacking that break point and Sharapova holds on at the moment.
Serena missed a big chance to bring up a second break point when it looked like her defensive skills had paid off, and another unforced error keeps this match on serve.
Serena Williams 6-3, 4-3* Maria Sharapova: You have to admire the Sharapova mindset to come out of that game when it looked like the break was going to go against her.
A huge error from Serena Williams brings up 0-30 again on serve, the second service game in a row that has happened. A sense of deja vu for Sharapova as two big serves, one unreturned and one ace, levels the game and another ace moves Serena in front.
This time it won't be four straight points for Williams though- and then something completely strange has happened where it looks like Serena has game point but is forced to replay way after the fact.
That leads to a break point for Sharapova, but again it is two big serves that has turned the game around and an ace to wrap up the game.
It turns out Sharapova got the point for hindrance, which was surprising because I didn't notice anything in particular Williams did, but she didn't even make a move to argue the case. Still on serve in the second set, but the scoreboard pressure has to be building on Sharapova who continues to play catch up.
Serena Williams *6-3, 4-4 Maria Sharapova: Tremendous game from Sharapova, even if she did get away with a shocking volley to open it. Hold to 15 at the business end of the set is impressive.
Serena Williams 6-3, 5-4* Maria Sharapova: Anything you can do... Big serving from Serena Williams produce a hold to love and now she is on the brink of winning the Australian Open for the first time since 2010.
Been saying it all set, but pressure on Sharapova serving to stay in the match. She has handled playing from behind so well, but I can't help thinking how the match would have felt right now if Sharapova had forced Williams to serve out the first set rather than being broken.
Serena Williams *6-3, 5-5 Maria Sharapova: The way Sharapova has been handling this second set is impressive- from 0-15, a big second serve helps win one point and a huge forehand down the line helps her move in front.
Lack of first serves is an issue and a double fault means Williams is just two points from the title.
The defence of Williams, which I identified as being one of the key differences between the players that has led to this 15 match winning run for the American against Sharapova, forces an error and match point.
Absolutely stunning tennis from Sharapova has kept her in this set and it was only right that it took that kind of tennis for the Russian to save that match point.
Sharapova has gotten away with another drop shot and holds on- she might not be everyone's cup of team, but Sharapova has played so well and has to be admired no matter how this ends up.
Serena Williams 6-3, 6-5* Maria Sharapova: Some solid defence from Williams again, but eventually she can't keep the ball in play and a sniff of a chance for Sharapova at 30-30.
Take a guess what happens next? Yep, another ace at a big time for Williams to move ahead in the game, but Sharapova not done with this game just yet.
More big serving from the American, this one followed by a heavy forehand down the line, and then an ace to move back to the brink of the title.
This has been a set full of stunning tennis. Engrossing stuff for the play and also the way the two players are trying to dominate with their personalities with the 'come on' shouts.
Serena Williams 6-3, 6-6 Maria Sharapova: It would be disappointing if Sharapova was to break down here and lose the match- she deserves the chance to play a tie-break after the effort she has put into the set.
But it does mean coming through one more service game- two errors from Williams' racquet and an ace bring up three game points and it is a comfortable hold for the Russian.
Really good tennis from both.
Serena Williams 6-3, 6-6 Maria Sharapova: Clean winner from Maria Sharapova to open the tie-breaker, but the mini-break doesn't last very long after an error from the Number 2 Seed.
Williams returns the favour for the clean winner off serve to move up a mini-break in the breaker and uses a big ace and then a strong forehand to move clear for the first time in this set.
The two switch ends with Williams 4-2 up in the breaker, although Serena will feel she missed a big chance to earn a double mini-break in the final point there. How much more fight does Sharapova have in her?
Mistakes from Serena Williams has kept Sharapova in this breaker, and she does look a little tight at the moment.
There is so much emotion on the court and it is fascinating to see both of these players trying to keep a lid on things! Serena battles through a tough point to move 5-3 up, but another tight forehand error which is very wide of the court and we are back on serve with two to come from Sharapova.
Clean winner off the second serve from Serena Williams and that brings up two match points... Total respect for Sharapova in the manner she saves the first off a huge second serve-forehand combination.
But Serena is serving for the match.
Add to the drama with a let cord preventing the ace winner and a stare at the umpire from Serena Williams who had dropped her racquet! Same serve, another ace and Serena Williams has beaten Maria Sharapova for the 16th in a row to win her 19th Grand Slam title.
Serena Williams 6-3, 7-6: I have so much respect for the way that Maria Sharapova hung in during that second set when she was behind throughout and the battling she displayed in the tie-breaker, but it raises some tough questions for her.
The first is how can Maria Sharapova turn the tide after 16 straight losses to Serena Williams? She produced arguably her best tennis, but still couldn't take a set from the American and there is too much motivation for Serena when she steps on the court against Sharapova.
Williams has been caught cold in Grand Slam tournaments over the last two seasons, but Sharapova won't be someone that will ever have that benefit with their meetings likely to come at the business end of events. Add to that the motivation that Serena Williams clearly has behind her when she sees Sharapova on the other side of the court and it is tough to see this trend changing.
Again it was the defensive ability that Williams has compared to Sharapova and the bigger and more consistent serve that saw her come through. The rest of the game is similar, but those slight edges are enough for Williams to hold the key to winning these head to head matches.
It was a great Final and I hope the rest of the Slams live up to it.
MY PICK: Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Australian Open Update: 34-23, + 23.66 Units (107 Units Staked, + 22.11% Yield)
Weekend Football Picks 2015 (January 31-February 1)
It has been a busy week with the Australian Open taking most of my attention as well as the Super Bowl, from which I will have my pick up on Saturday evening which is a day before the big game. That means the Weekend Football picks have had to take a back seat somewhat after the surprises of last weekend in the FA Cup Fourth Round which saw some of the biggest names in English football humbled.
Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool were all either beaten or failed to win in the Fourth Round and that has opened up the FA Cup to 'lesser lights'. However, the favourites remain Arsenal along with Manchester United and Liverpool, the latter two playing replays this week, and the Fifth Round draw has suited the former two teams as they face lower League opposition.
Hull City v Newcastle United Pick: The last time Hull City hosted Newcastle United, all of the headlines were about Alan Pardew and his inexplicable reaction in trying to headbutt David Meyler. I still remember being confused even more by the fact that Newcastle United were winning that game and couldn't figure out what must have gone through Pardew's head.
The pantomime villain won't be in town on Saturday having moved to Crystal Palace to take over as manager at Selhurst Park, but John Carver will bring Newcastle United here having been assured he will manage the club until the summer at least. It will be like a four month job application for Carver, who is desperate to be given the permanent job at St James' Park, and that means trying to ensure Newcastle finish as high up as possible.
They have struggled away from home in recent weeks, but the 2-0 defeat at Chelsea doesn't tell the full story as Newcastle created plenty of chances. If they can replicate that at the KC Stadium, the Magpies can certainly pile some more pressure on Geordie Steve Bruce.
Injuries have been a big problem for Bruce through the season, but he will have the services of Nikica Jelavic, Gaston Ramirez and Abel Hernandez to give Hull City a little more bite up front. Against West Ham United, Hull City missed their composure in front of goal in the 3-0 defeat as they did create the chances to get something out of that game.
Goals have been in short supply for both of these sides at home/away respectively this season, but I think this game could reverse that trend. For example, Newcastle United have conceded at least twice in their last 3 away games in the Premier League, albeit against the likes of Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea.
They are playing a Hull City team which is missing a couple of defenders so they will believe they can hurt them on the counter attack and the three games between these teams over the last eighteen months have featured at least 4 goals in each. At the prices, backing at least three goals being shared looks big and might just pay off if both defences are still struggling a little after a two week break.
Crystal Palace v Everton Pick: Look at the recent form of these two teams and try and tell me that the prices for the home/away wins are not based on previous achievements of these sides- how else would Everton be favoured to win at an in-form Crystal Palace?
It has been a difficult second season for Roberto Martinez at Everton where he has not been helped by injuries to unsettle his line up. However, a bigger concern for the fans have to be some of the defensive performances of Everton that bring back memories of Martinez' Wigan Athletic in the Premier League and it does feel they are perhaps lacking a plan B at the moment.
On the other hand, Crystal Palace have been reinvigorated by Alan Pardew's arrival at the club and their belief and determination has been evident from 3 wins in a row despite trailing in all of those games. Dwight Gayle feels wanted and is scoring the goals that Neil Warnock didn't believe he had and Palace have an abundance of pace in forward areas that will cause Everton problems.
It is a shame they are still missing Mile Jedinak and Yannick Bolasie, but Pardew has still found the right formula to win games and I think the pressure is all on Everton to turn around their own form. That has seen them slip into a potential relegation fight that is getting tighter in each passing week, while Everton have lost 5 straight away games in the League.
That run is bound to end sooner or later, but Crystal Palace look a huge price to make it 6 Premier League losses in a row on their travels for Everton. I'd only keep a small interest in this game because of the fact that Palace have been behind in their last 3 games and continuing to dig deep and win games is tough, but I still believe the home side should not be the underdog in this one.
Liverpool v West Ham United Pick: This looks like being one of the more entertaining games of the weekend with both Liverpool and West Ham United in decent form and both managers taking an attacking approach in their tactical decisions. Sam Allardyce might be tempted to make life difficult for Liverpool from the off, but he has taken an attacking approach at Manchester United and Everton earlier in the season and I will say the performance at Chelsea was due to the busy festive period.
There is also no real reason for Allardyce to fear a Liverpool team which has conceded goals regularly at home and one that Andy Carroll will be desperate to impress against. Carroll didn't have a good time while playing for Liverpool, but he has been a real handful of late and the return of Diafra Sakho from injury is another bonus.
However, Allardyce will also want to be careful not to ask his side to push on too much considering the chances that Liverpool have begun to create again. This has resulted from a change in the system and the return of Daniel Sturridge may just give Brendan Rodgers a regular source of goals.
For all the good positions Liverpool found themselves in against Chelsea in the Capital One Cup Semi Final, you do feel that someone like Sturridge would have made the difference in front of goal and the return from injury couldn't have come soon enough.
Liverpool have had a lot of draws at home and are facing a West Ham United team that has scored plenty on their travels during the course of the season. However, I can see Sturridge perhaps coming off the bench and making the difference in this one and improving Liverpool's recent form against West Ham United at Anfield by helping them win their fourth game in five against them.
The attacking philosophy of West Ham United this season has resulted in the side scoring in every away League game outside of Stamford Bridge this season and I will back Liverpool to win a game in which both teams score.
Manchester United v Leicester City Pick: The words 'philosophy' and 'progress' have been used in press conferences through the season by Louis Van Gaal, but there has been little of that of late for Manchester United as they have struggled to turn possession into real chances. Manchester United have had a tough month, but I have to say the majority of those games have been away from Old Trafford and the side have had a hard time on their travels for much of the season.
Aside from the recent disappointing loss to Southampton, Manchester United have been playing effectively at Old Trafford and I think that will be a key for them in this game. Before that defeat, United had won 3 of their last 4 games at Old Trafford by at least two goals and I think they will be too strong for Leicester City.
For all the disappointment in going forward, Manchester United have the third best defensive record in the Premier League and are facing a Leicester City team that has only scored 7 times away from home.
I did consider backing Manchester United to win with a clean sheet to boot, but Louis Van Gaal might be looking for a more positive attacking game in this one and that might leave more spaces for Leicester to exploit. Therefore I am looking for United to get back to winning ways at Old Trafford with another comfortable enough victory by at least two goals which had begun to be a feature of their games before the defeat against Southampton.
Leicester City have also shown improvement in recent away games, but they were 2-0 down at Liverpool and behind at Tottenham Hotspur and I think United have played well enough defensively at home to hold those kinds of leads.
For all the attacking talent at Van Gaal's disposal, he has to get the right fit sooner rather than later if Manchester United are to achieve their top four goal and they can't afford to drop points in this one. At odds against, backing the home team to win by two or more goals looks to be the call.
West Brom v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There is little doubt that West Brom have gone back to basics since Tony Pulis has come into the club and that is focusing on the defensive side of things and making the side hard to beat. They have kept clean sheets in their last two Premier League games, but there will be more expectation when they play at the Hawthornes and that could make this a better game to watch than some Pulis managed games can be.
That is probably a little harsh on Pulis because his teams play with passion and they can ruffle the feathers of some of the best teams in the Premier League. However, the first instance for this West Brom team is picking up any kind of points to make sure they avoid the drop and so Pulis might set them up to be tough to beat in this one.
On the other hand, perhaps the manager has seen the effort that Tottenham Hotspur put into their Capital One Cup Semi Final at Bramall Lane on Wednesday and might want West Brom to take advantage. They will be expected to push forward and pose some problems for a Tottenham defence that struggles for clean sheets.
While West Brom have clean sheets in 3 of their last 4 home games, Spurs are a team that has scored plenty of goals away from home and have shown a determination to win games late. Goals have been a feature of Tottenham Hotspur away games for much of the season and this has all the hallmarks of a 2-1 scoreline either way.
I was surprised that the layers seem to over-estimate what Tony Pulis will be able to do defensively with this West Brom team, especially as they have not faced a team as good as Spurs in his time at the club. At home, West Brom will be expected to get forward and the odds against quote that there are at least three goals in this game looks far too big to ignore.
Chelsea v Manchester City Pick: Diego Costa has been banned for three games which begins in this one and that may even things up a little for Manchester City who continue to miss Yaya Toure as he plays for the Ivory Coast at the African Cup of Nations.
Unfortunately for Manchester City, it seems that Toure has taken the form with him as the side have struggled in his absence, although another week with Sergio Aguero getting healthier will be a bonus for the side. I think City can also take the positives from the chances that Liverpool created against Chelsea over two legs of the Capital One Cup Semi Final as well as the four goals that Bradford scored at Stamford Bridge last weekend in the FA Cup.
Newcastle United were another team that has recently visited Stamford Bridge and had chances to take the lead so Manchester City have to be encouraged about their chances as they look to close the 5 point lead that Chelsea have at the top of the table.
However, City have to play better than they have been as they are without a win in 3 games and were beaten 0-2 by Arsenal in their last Premier League game. Going out of the FA Cup against Middlesbrough is another body blow that they have taken, but this looks a game where Frank Lampard may hurt his former club again.
With the chances that both teams have created and conceded in recent games, this looks like a game that could feature at least three goals shared by the sides. My concern is the nature of Jose Mourinho to set his teams up to not concede too much space, especially as a draw will suit Chelsea a lot more than it does Manchester City, but the away team have the quality to break them down.
If Manchester City can score, Chelsea will have to play more of an open game than expected and I will back there being at least three goals shared in this one with both defences not playing up to the standard expected of late.
Arsenal v Aston Villa Pick: In recent seasons, Aston Villa have had a lot of success at the Emirates Stadium which is a surprise because they haven't really been much better than they are this season.
The absence of Alexis Sanchez is a bitter blow to an Arsenal team that have relied on their new signing far more than their fans would likely want to admit. He has been suffering with a hamstring injury and Arsene Wenger has admitted that he won't be risking him with big Champions League, Premier League and FA Cup games to come this month.
Arsenal will still be expected to win this game in the absence of Sanchez having won 6 in a row in all competitions at the Emirates Stadium. Add to that the fact that Aston Villa have lost 3 in a row away from home and I think the Gunners will likely win this game, although they will need some inspiration from another quarter outside of their Chilean superstar.
Instead of looking at the handicap, I think backing Arsenal to win to nil may be the better option as the side could settle for a 1-0 in this one. Aston Villa have lost by that scoreline in their last 3 away games and have only scored 2 goals in their last 9 away Premier League games and they still look a little goal shy.
MY PICKS: Hull City-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace @ 2.80 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Both Teams to Score and Liverpool to Win @ 3.30 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.07 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Brom-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Chelsea-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal Win to Nil @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
January Update: 6-18-1, - 15.88 Units (45 Units Staked, - 35.29% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 70-98-1, - 18.88 Units (289 Units Staked, - 6.53% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool were all either beaten or failed to win in the Fourth Round and that has opened up the FA Cup to 'lesser lights'. However, the favourites remain Arsenal along with Manchester United and Liverpool, the latter two playing replays this week, and the Fifth Round draw has suited the former two teams as they face lower League opposition.
Hull City v Newcastle United Pick: The last time Hull City hosted Newcastle United, all of the headlines were about Alan Pardew and his inexplicable reaction in trying to headbutt David Meyler. I still remember being confused even more by the fact that Newcastle United were winning that game and couldn't figure out what must have gone through Pardew's head.
The pantomime villain won't be in town on Saturday having moved to Crystal Palace to take over as manager at Selhurst Park, but John Carver will bring Newcastle United here having been assured he will manage the club until the summer at least. It will be like a four month job application for Carver, who is desperate to be given the permanent job at St James' Park, and that means trying to ensure Newcastle finish as high up as possible.
They have struggled away from home in recent weeks, but the 2-0 defeat at Chelsea doesn't tell the full story as Newcastle created plenty of chances. If they can replicate that at the KC Stadium, the Magpies can certainly pile some more pressure on Geordie Steve Bruce.
Injuries have been a big problem for Bruce through the season, but he will have the services of Nikica Jelavic, Gaston Ramirez and Abel Hernandez to give Hull City a little more bite up front. Against West Ham United, Hull City missed their composure in front of goal in the 3-0 defeat as they did create the chances to get something out of that game.
Goals have been in short supply for both of these sides at home/away respectively this season, but I think this game could reverse that trend. For example, Newcastle United have conceded at least twice in their last 3 away games in the Premier League, albeit against the likes of Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea.
They are playing a Hull City team which is missing a couple of defenders so they will believe they can hurt them on the counter attack and the three games between these teams over the last eighteen months have featured at least 4 goals in each. At the prices, backing at least three goals being shared looks big and might just pay off if both defences are still struggling a little after a two week break.
Crystal Palace v Everton Pick: Look at the recent form of these two teams and try and tell me that the prices for the home/away wins are not based on previous achievements of these sides- how else would Everton be favoured to win at an in-form Crystal Palace?
It has been a difficult second season for Roberto Martinez at Everton where he has not been helped by injuries to unsettle his line up. However, a bigger concern for the fans have to be some of the defensive performances of Everton that bring back memories of Martinez' Wigan Athletic in the Premier League and it does feel they are perhaps lacking a plan B at the moment.
On the other hand, Crystal Palace have been reinvigorated by Alan Pardew's arrival at the club and their belief and determination has been evident from 3 wins in a row despite trailing in all of those games. Dwight Gayle feels wanted and is scoring the goals that Neil Warnock didn't believe he had and Palace have an abundance of pace in forward areas that will cause Everton problems.
It is a shame they are still missing Mile Jedinak and Yannick Bolasie, but Pardew has still found the right formula to win games and I think the pressure is all on Everton to turn around their own form. That has seen them slip into a potential relegation fight that is getting tighter in each passing week, while Everton have lost 5 straight away games in the League.
That run is bound to end sooner or later, but Crystal Palace look a huge price to make it 6 Premier League losses in a row on their travels for Everton. I'd only keep a small interest in this game because of the fact that Palace have been behind in their last 3 games and continuing to dig deep and win games is tough, but I still believe the home side should not be the underdog in this one.
Liverpool v West Ham United Pick: This looks like being one of the more entertaining games of the weekend with both Liverpool and West Ham United in decent form and both managers taking an attacking approach in their tactical decisions. Sam Allardyce might be tempted to make life difficult for Liverpool from the off, but he has taken an attacking approach at Manchester United and Everton earlier in the season and I will say the performance at Chelsea was due to the busy festive period.
There is also no real reason for Allardyce to fear a Liverpool team which has conceded goals regularly at home and one that Andy Carroll will be desperate to impress against. Carroll didn't have a good time while playing for Liverpool, but he has been a real handful of late and the return of Diafra Sakho from injury is another bonus.
However, Allardyce will also want to be careful not to ask his side to push on too much considering the chances that Liverpool have begun to create again. This has resulted from a change in the system and the return of Daniel Sturridge may just give Brendan Rodgers a regular source of goals.
For all the good positions Liverpool found themselves in against Chelsea in the Capital One Cup Semi Final, you do feel that someone like Sturridge would have made the difference in front of goal and the return from injury couldn't have come soon enough.
Liverpool have had a lot of draws at home and are facing a West Ham United team that has scored plenty on their travels during the course of the season. However, I can see Sturridge perhaps coming off the bench and making the difference in this one and improving Liverpool's recent form against West Ham United at Anfield by helping them win their fourth game in five against them.
The attacking philosophy of West Ham United this season has resulted in the side scoring in every away League game outside of Stamford Bridge this season and I will back Liverpool to win a game in which both teams score.
Manchester United v Leicester City Pick: The words 'philosophy' and 'progress' have been used in press conferences through the season by Louis Van Gaal, but there has been little of that of late for Manchester United as they have struggled to turn possession into real chances. Manchester United have had a tough month, but I have to say the majority of those games have been away from Old Trafford and the side have had a hard time on their travels for much of the season.
Aside from the recent disappointing loss to Southampton, Manchester United have been playing effectively at Old Trafford and I think that will be a key for them in this game. Before that defeat, United had won 3 of their last 4 games at Old Trafford by at least two goals and I think they will be too strong for Leicester City.
For all the disappointment in going forward, Manchester United have the third best defensive record in the Premier League and are facing a Leicester City team that has only scored 7 times away from home.
I did consider backing Manchester United to win with a clean sheet to boot, but Louis Van Gaal might be looking for a more positive attacking game in this one and that might leave more spaces for Leicester to exploit. Therefore I am looking for United to get back to winning ways at Old Trafford with another comfortable enough victory by at least two goals which had begun to be a feature of their games before the defeat against Southampton.
Leicester City have also shown improvement in recent away games, but they were 2-0 down at Liverpool and behind at Tottenham Hotspur and I think United have played well enough defensively at home to hold those kinds of leads.
For all the attacking talent at Van Gaal's disposal, he has to get the right fit sooner rather than later if Manchester United are to achieve their top four goal and they can't afford to drop points in this one. At odds against, backing the home team to win by two or more goals looks to be the call.
West Brom v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There is little doubt that West Brom have gone back to basics since Tony Pulis has come into the club and that is focusing on the defensive side of things and making the side hard to beat. They have kept clean sheets in their last two Premier League games, but there will be more expectation when they play at the Hawthornes and that could make this a better game to watch than some Pulis managed games can be.
That is probably a little harsh on Pulis because his teams play with passion and they can ruffle the feathers of some of the best teams in the Premier League. However, the first instance for this West Brom team is picking up any kind of points to make sure they avoid the drop and so Pulis might set them up to be tough to beat in this one.
On the other hand, perhaps the manager has seen the effort that Tottenham Hotspur put into their Capital One Cup Semi Final at Bramall Lane on Wednesday and might want West Brom to take advantage. They will be expected to push forward and pose some problems for a Tottenham defence that struggles for clean sheets.
While West Brom have clean sheets in 3 of their last 4 home games, Spurs are a team that has scored plenty of goals away from home and have shown a determination to win games late. Goals have been a feature of Tottenham Hotspur away games for much of the season and this has all the hallmarks of a 2-1 scoreline either way.
I was surprised that the layers seem to over-estimate what Tony Pulis will be able to do defensively with this West Brom team, especially as they have not faced a team as good as Spurs in his time at the club. At home, West Brom will be expected to get forward and the odds against quote that there are at least three goals in this game looks far too big to ignore.
Chelsea v Manchester City Pick: Diego Costa has been banned for three games which begins in this one and that may even things up a little for Manchester City who continue to miss Yaya Toure as he plays for the Ivory Coast at the African Cup of Nations.
Unfortunately for Manchester City, it seems that Toure has taken the form with him as the side have struggled in his absence, although another week with Sergio Aguero getting healthier will be a bonus for the side. I think City can also take the positives from the chances that Liverpool created against Chelsea over two legs of the Capital One Cup Semi Final as well as the four goals that Bradford scored at Stamford Bridge last weekend in the FA Cup.
Newcastle United were another team that has recently visited Stamford Bridge and had chances to take the lead so Manchester City have to be encouraged about their chances as they look to close the 5 point lead that Chelsea have at the top of the table.
However, City have to play better than they have been as they are without a win in 3 games and were beaten 0-2 by Arsenal in their last Premier League game. Going out of the FA Cup against Middlesbrough is another body blow that they have taken, but this looks a game where Frank Lampard may hurt his former club again.
With the chances that both teams have created and conceded in recent games, this looks like a game that could feature at least three goals shared by the sides. My concern is the nature of Jose Mourinho to set his teams up to not concede too much space, especially as a draw will suit Chelsea a lot more than it does Manchester City, but the away team have the quality to break them down.
If Manchester City can score, Chelsea will have to play more of an open game than expected and I will back there being at least three goals shared in this one with both defences not playing up to the standard expected of late.
Arsenal v Aston Villa Pick: In recent seasons, Aston Villa have had a lot of success at the Emirates Stadium which is a surprise because they haven't really been much better than they are this season.
The absence of Alexis Sanchez is a bitter blow to an Arsenal team that have relied on their new signing far more than their fans would likely want to admit. He has been suffering with a hamstring injury and Arsene Wenger has admitted that he won't be risking him with big Champions League, Premier League and FA Cup games to come this month.
Arsenal will still be expected to win this game in the absence of Sanchez having won 6 in a row in all competitions at the Emirates Stadium. Add to that the fact that Aston Villa have lost 3 in a row away from home and I think the Gunners will likely win this game, although they will need some inspiration from another quarter outside of their Chilean superstar.
Instead of looking at the handicap, I think backing Arsenal to win to nil may be the better option as the side could settle for a 1-0 in this one. Aston Villa have lost by that scoreline in their last 3 away games and have only scored 2 goals in their last 9 away Premier League games and they still look a little goal shy.
MY PICKS: Hull City-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace @ 2.80 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Both Teams to Score and Liverpool to Win @ 3.30 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.07 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Brom-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Chelsea-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal Win to Nil @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
January Update: 6-18-1, - 15.88 Units (45 Units Staked, - 35.29% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 70-98-1, - 18.88 Units (289 Units Staked, - 6.53% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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