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Sunday, 7 September 2014

US Open Women's Final 2014- Serena Williams v Caroline Wozniacki (September 7th)

I wish I had listened to my gut yesterday that told me both Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic would make it incredibly tough for Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer respectively, but I never thought both men would win those matches.

In fact, after breaking down the matches, I actually believed the top two seeds would prove too good- Kei Nishikori definitely wobbled at the beginning of the third set but managed to hold onto serve in a lengthy game which seemed to give him the belief to kick on; on the other hand, Marin Cilic dominated Roger Federer from start to finish and has now set up the first men's Grand Slam Final not involving Djokovic, Federer, Rafael Nadal or Andy Murray since the Australian Open 2005.

That Final will be played on Monday afternoon, but first we come to the women's Final being competed by two very good friends in Serena Williams and Caroline Wozniacki. Both have spent a lot of time together off the court, but Serena has made a point of mentioning that it won't affect her because if she 'can play Venus, (she) can play anybody'.

The key to the match could be which of the two players hold their nerve the best with big goals being reached by the winner, and their two matches this summer have been incredibly close.

Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: In the two matches this summer, Serena Williams didn't serve as effectively as she can and that could be all that makes the difference in this match.

If Serena serves as well as she has in the latter part of her match with Flavia Pennetta and as well as she did in the Semi Final win over Ekaterina Makarova, Williams should be able to dictate the points more effectively than Wozniacki.

She will have to do that because the Dane has been playing more aggressively than I have seen for some time, although she was a little fortunate to have been ahead in her Semi Final win over Shuai Peng. However, Wozniacki broke an opponent who had won 40 straight service games for fun in that match and I do think she will be able to get into the Williams service games.

On the other hand, it would be a big surprise if Williams is not able to hurt the Wozniacki serve, particularly the second serve, if she brings in the form that kept Pennetta and Makarova on the back foot immediately following serves.

Wozniacki can frustrate with her defensive skills and many of the matches between these players have been very close (3 of last 5 have gone the distance), although Serena does seem to knuckle down just enough to come through.

Handling the nerves hasn't always been something that Serena Williams has done well, despite the 17 Grand Slam titles she has won, but I think there will be plenty on the other side of the net too and I like Williams to win this one 64, 63.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)

US Open Update: 20-17, + 10.86 Units (67 Units Staked, + 16.21% Yield)

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