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Wednesday, 3 September 2014

US Open Day 10 Picks 2014 (September 3rd)

You just know when a Grand Slam tournament is coming towards the end as the matches scheduled on a day reduce and reduce... On Wednesday, day 10 of the US Open, there are only four matches scheduled as Quarter Finals get underway in the men's draw and the second Semi Final is set up in the women's draw.


I said that Caroline Wozniacki is a dangerous player and perhaps a real threat to win the Grand Slam title, her maiden one, for the first time for a number of years. The last two months has seen her concentrate on her tennis in the wake of the break up with Rory McIlroy and she can match the Northern Irishman by winning a Major just weeks after that break up.

Wozniacki is in the weaker half of the draw and might be the best player left in the draw IF Serena Williams is suffering from some sort of foot injury. The Dane crushed Sara Errani in her Quarter Final on Tuesday and I think the belief has reached a level where Wozniacki will be expecting to win the event, although she might appreciate Serena Williams being beaten before their potential meeting in the Final.


It was another positive day for the picks thanks to Tomas Berdych and Roger Federer winning comfortably in their Fourth Round matches, even if Grigor Dimitrov missed numerous opportunities against a sometimes distracted Gael Monfils.

With another positive day behind me, I am having a real hope that this tournament ends with a bang and another profitable Grand Slam has to be appreciated.


Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 games v Kei Nishikori: It was a sloppy Fourth Round win for Stan Wawrinka over Tommy Robredo and making the mistakes he made in that match in a match against Kei Nishikori will be tough to overcome.

However, Wawrinka showed the mental strength that took him to a maiden Grand Slam title earlier this season at the Australian Open, and I think he has a big game that can give him the edge in this match.

Nishikori is also coming off a long Fourth Round win over Milos Raonic which lasted long into the New York night just two days ago and I am interested to know whether he has had enough time to recover. That has been one of the big negatives against Nishikori in the past and I think he is going to have to dig deep again if he is to beat Wawrinka in this one.

That means calling on mental and physical reserves that he hasn't always shown and I think this is likely to finish with a Wawrinka win in four sets as long as he can hold together some of the unforced errors he produced against Robredo in the last Round.


Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Andy Murray: As impressive as Andy Murray was at times in his win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the Fourth Round, I don't think he will get away with giving Novak Djokovic the break advantage in consecutive sets in this huge Quarter Final.

Novak Djokovic has comfortably come through the draw, but I would be surprised if he won this match in straight sets considering how well Murray was playing against Tsonga, although I also don't believe the latter is doing enough to win the match.

This is a good match up for both players as neither has a serve that will produce a lot of free points and they will have to work hard for everything they earn. Murray has the bigger first serve, but Djokovic has the more effective second serve, while the wind could also play its part in a Quarter Final that should produce some very good tennis.

The match takes place in the evening during the cooler part of the day which should help Djokovic and I do think he is in the better place mentally to win the match. However, I think his serve will give Murray some opportunities so I wouldn't be surprised if the Brit wins at least a set in the match.

I just expect Djokovic to tough out the big moments and possibly take a critical set on a tie-break which helps him through to the Semi Final in four sets.


Serena Williams - 6.5 games v Flavia Pennetta: The last two times these players have met have been extremely one-sided, including last month in Cincinnati, but there are some doubts about Serena Williams' fitness coming into this one.

The American needed some work done on her foot in the Doubles defeat she suffered along with her sister Venus yesterday and that has to be a concern for her backers going forward.

However, it might only have been a precaution and Serena has played with some confidence so far this week which should give her every chance of adding to her 17 Grand Slam titles.

The heavier shots will come from her racquet, although the serve has not been as dominant as it can be, and I think she will dictate the points in this match. Flavia Pennetta is very experienced, but that can only take you so far in the face of the firepower that Serena can provide on the court and I think the top player in the women's game comes through 63, 62.

MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Serena Williams - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

US Open Update: 17-12, + 12.76 Units (53 Units Staked, + 24.08% Yield)

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