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Wednesday, 17 September 2014

Tennis Picks 2014 (September 17th)

This is one of those weeks where there isn't the range of tennis matches that have appealed to me and so Tuesday proved to be a day where I didn't have any picks. That came after the sole pick from Monday's tennis proved to be a winning one as Gilles Muller did have enough to beat Edouard Roger-Vasselin and I do think the big man could be worth following in the Second Round too.

There are a few tournaments being played on the WTA Tour in Asia, but I am sticking to the ATP Metz event for my picks this week so far.

Jan-Lennard Struff - 2.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: These two players are only separated by one position in the World Rankings, but I think it is the slightly lower Ranked player, Jan-Lennard Struff, that can come through this First Round match.

It would certainly have made me feel better if Struff wasn't coming off a tournament on the clay courts, a tournament where he was beaten in the Final by Dustin Brown. Struff hasn't really pushed on to the same extent as he would have wanted with a lot of losses on his record over the last three months, but he did reach a Semi Final on the indoor hard courts earlier this year.

The next couple of months could be critical for Struff as he doesn't have a lot of points to defend and can make a real move up the Rankings. The German has a decent serve that should set him up, while the biggest benefit for him is that Dusan Lajovic is coming off a long Davis Cup tie.

Serbia's tie with India had to be prolonged until Monday and Lajovic has had a long journey to France and could be undercooked for this tournament. With the Asian swing upcoming, I was surprised Lajovic wanted to come to Europe for one event, and I am not sure how prepared he can be for this match.

If tiredness also plays a part, it might be tough for Lajovic to stay with Struff and eventually see the latter move through in two tight sets.

Gilles Muller + 3.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Gilles Muller should be better prepared for this Second Round match than Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who had to play a Davis Cup tie on the clay courts of Paris over the weekend. With the serve that Muller possesses, he could make life very difficult for the home favourite despite Tsonga being very capable on the indoor hard courts.

There will be the opportunity for the Frenchman to take his shots against Muller and I do think his own serve will help him get through his own service games, but this match has all the hallmarks of tight tie-breaks making the difference.

An early break would give Tsonga a real chance to cover if he is serving first like he prefers, but I also think he may have to warm into the match on the conditions that will be different to what he has seen of late.

By that time, the first set could have whizzed by to a tie-break and this could easily be a 76, 64 win for Tsonga although Muller will feel he has a big opportunity to cause another surprise win over a French player this week.

MY PICKS: Jan-Lennard Struff - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gilles Muller + 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-0, + 2.10 Units (2 Units Staked, + 105% Yield)

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