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Friday, 26 September 2014

Tennis Picks 2014 (September 26th)

There is still a lot of tennis to play this week as the tournaments in Wuhan, Kuala Lumper and Shenzhen are down to the business end of the events. The focus has already begun to shift to the next two weeks when big tournaments take place in Beijing and Tokyo, but don't say that to Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori who are trying to pick up points that could be vital in the 'Race to London'.

Tommy Robredo - 2.5 games v Andreas Seppi: This is an interesting hard court Quarter Final between two players that are much more comfortable on the slower clay courts. However, both Tommy Robredo and Andreas Seppi have shown they are more than capable of winning matches on the hard courts although I think it will be the Spaniard who moves through to the Semi Final.

I can see this match developing more in the manner you would expect on the clay courts with both players likely to have a few chances to break serve. Neither Robredo nor Seppi have a serve that will offer too many cheap points, but both players are happy to extend the rallies and it should be competitive if the 4-3 lead Robredo has in the head to head is anything to go by.

There is every chance this is a match that could go the distance, but I do think the competitive spirit that Robredo has displayed over the last eighteen months may prove to be the difference. After a tight battle, Robredo should have enough to come through with a 46, 63, 64 win.

Santiago Giraldo v Victor Troicki: It has been felt in some quarters that Victor Troicki was unfairly treated by the ATP when serving a year long suspension for failing to give a blood sample despite an illness. Like Marin Cilic, Troicki may have been using that time off the court to evaluate what tennis has meant to him and the Serbian has come back with some impressive results.

Troicki has won a couple of tournaments at the Challenger level, while he did reach the Quarter Final of his first main Tour event on his return. That has been reached again here in Shenzhen and you have to credit some of the results that he has picked up, but Santiago Giraldo looks a big price to beat him in the Quarter Final.

Giraldo didn't have a good summer, but he is set to have his best season on the Tour if he can add a few more wins over the remaining few weeks and his wins this week should have given him confidence. The Colombian has enjoyed playing on the hard courts in the past and has can sometimes play some really big tennis that is hard to overcome.

Mentally Giraldo is not the best which is a concern for me, but I think a small interest is warranted on him being a little too good for Troicki who is still working his way back to this level.

Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Lukas Lacko: Andy Murray can't afford to take this tournament easy as he is looking to get back to the World Tour Finals and I think he is going to prove again that he is too good for Lukas Lacko.

They have met twice before and Lacko is yet to win more than three games in a set having had five chances to do that. Lacko has also lost the last four sets by either a 62 or a 61 scoreline and I think Murray returns well enough to expose errors in the Slovakian's game and the same is likely to happen in this Quarter Final.

I have seen Lacko play some brilliant tennis at times and I do think he can perhaps surpass some of his previous scores against Murray, but the latter is a man on a mission and should be able to come through without too many worries. Murray might need a 64 set to take the first, but he should then run away with the second set and come through 64, 62.

MY PICKS: Tommy Robredo - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo @ 2.45 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-5, - 2.91 Units (17 Units Staked, - 17.12% Yield)

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