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Tuesday, 2 September 2014

US Open Day 9 Picks 2014 (September 2nd)

It has been a fascinating US Open to this point with some big matches in prospect in the men's draw as all the contenders move into the final few days of the tournament. On the other hand, the women's draw has been fascinating for the fact that the majority of the top seeds are out of the tournament and a new name could be etched on a Grand Slam trophy.

The scheduling for the final few days always baffles me and on Tuesday we will see the conclusion of the men's Fourth Round matches and the start of the women's Quarter Finals. Of course, the men's Final doesn't take place until Monday and hopefully will be all but concluded by the time the first NFL Monday Night Football kicks off.

It was a positive day for the picks, but could have been a lot better if Jo-Wilfried Tsonga could have held on to his break advantages in the second and third set against Andy Murray as I needed him to win a set in that match. Kei Nishikori then saw off Milos Raonic in five sets to leave a small profit for Monday but another tick upwards for the tournament.

I don't want to give anything back and look to move a little further ahead on Tuesday with picks from the men's Fourth Round event only as both women's Quarter Finals look tough to find real markets to back.

Marin Cilic-Gilles Simon Over 39.5 Games: These two have met four times in the past and Gilles Simon has come through with the win four times, although it has to be noted that all four matches have gone the distance. That includes their two previous Grand Slam matches including a five-set encounter in Australia earlier this season.

I can actually understand why Simon has had as much success against Cilic as he has simply because he can force enough balls back into play to break down the Croatian's forehand and earn errors.

On the other hand, Cilic's power has helped him fight through some sets as he can get a strong look at the return game and there is every chance we will see at least four sets in this one.

They have played a lot of close sets and even going four sets will give this every chance of surpassing the number of games in the match, but I have a feeling we may need five sets to separate them again.

Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 games v Gael Monfils: This should be a really entertaining match between two players that are capable of making flashy winners and both are willing to entertain the crowd.

However, I do think Grigor Dimitrov is the one with the 'bigger ambition' from the sport of tennis than Gael Monfils and genuinely believes that he is able to win the Grand Slam events.

As naturally gifted Monfils is, I don't necessarily get the same feeling from the Frenchman and I think that will prove to be the difference between the players on Tuesday in this Fourth Round encounter.

Both have decent serves and are able to prolong rallies with their defence, but Dimitrov might have a little more aggression and is willing to get to the net when he needs to and should come through in four tight sets.

Tomas Berdych - 5.5 games v Dominic Thiem: It has been a strong run from Dominic Thiem who looks like being part of the next generation that can reach the top of the men's game, but it may come to an end against the veteran Tomas Berdych who has quietly moved through the draw.

Both players have come through tough Second Round matches where they needed five sets to get through, but I think Berdych's power is going to make the difference in this match.

There is no doubt that Thiem is a real shot-maker in the times I have seen him play and I do think he is destined to be one of the top ten players in the men's game as he builds experience. However, he may find himself on the back foot when it comes to returning Berdych's serve and I think he may offer the Czech player enough encouragement to attack on the returns to move through the match.

Thiem may just run out of resolve as this match goes on and Berdych could come through with a 63, 46, 64, 63 win.

Roger Federer - 7.5 games v Roberto Bautista-Agut: Roger Federer suffered a slight scare in the last Round against Marcel Granollers, but will be expecting to have a more successful evening against Roberto Bautista-Agut in this Fourth Round match.

Federer may appreciate the fact that Bautista-Agut hits the ball a little flatter as that should help the rhythm of the 17 time Grand Slam Champion in this encounter.

I respect the way that Bautista-Agut battles, but I think he will find it hard to get under the skin of Federer who should be able to dictate the majority of the rallies with his aggression. As long as he serves well, Federer should prove too strong when it is all said and done.

The games look tough to cover, but I can see Federer taking one set with a 61 or 62 scoreline and come through 63, 76, 62 to cover here.

MY PICKS: Marin Cilic-Gilles Simon Over 39.5 Total Games @ 1.75 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 7.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)

US Open Update: 14-11, + 9.56 Units (45 Units Staked, + 21.24% Yield)

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