The last two months have been the most frustrating time for me in the last three years of making picks in tennis matches and has seen the success of the first seven months being obliterated in a terrible run of bad luck and back form.
I am not foolish enough to suggest it has all been down to bad luck, because that would just be far too arrogant, but some of the picks have come so close and that makes the difference when they go for you, as they did last two years, and when they don't as has been the case in the last two months.
Those are the ones that really hurt in the long run and it was more of the same yesterday- an example of players not quite doing what I expect came in the David Ferrer match.
Ferrer finished 8/26 on break point conversions but allowed Mikhail Kukushkin to grab 6/8 and that is clearly enough to make a difference between covering spreads or not.
So many times I have also seen players play unbreakable tennis in matches I have picked them to lose, but them produce complete tosh in their next match and all in all it has been irritating/frustrating/disappointing.
I pride myself of judging how tennis matches will develop by looking at the match up on the court, but I need players to start completing the jobs now- reaching match points and choking, having meltdowns in one set and dominating three, and missing numbers of break points are issues you can't factor in because something is clearly right in the thinking if the players are getting into those positions.
I have already accepted this is not going to be a great season compared with the last two seasons, but this is also shaping up to be my worst record from a Grand Slam tournament just to make matters a little worse. I don't feel good about it at all and hope long-term followers will at least give me the benefit of the doubt for the poor run.
We have reached the seventh day at the US Open and I will have my picks up far earlier than I have the last few days as I will be busy for the whole afternoon tomorrow. The markets should all be available by then, although the rain may delay a lot of the matches if it arrives as expected.
Stanislas Wawrinka win 3-1 v Marcos Baghdatis: I wasn't aware of any injury that Kevin Anderson was suffering prior to his Second Round match against Marcos Baghdatis, but it was revealed afterwards that he has been suffering a wrist problem and that does take away some of the kudos that the Cypriot deserved for that win.
In saying that, he did play well in the match, although it was Anderson's glut of mistakes that made the difference and I expect Stanislas Wawrinka to provide a much sterner test.
I was worried pre-tournament about whether Wawrinka's back was feeling comfortable after retiring in Gstaad and losing 2 of 3 matches since, but he has come through his first two Rounds fairly comfortably. He has the consistency of both wings to hurt Baghdatis in this match and his serve can also produce the short ball which Wawrinka can put away.
It would be a surprise if the match goes straight-forward for the Swiss man though as Baghdatis can play some flawless tennis at times and I would expect the first two sets to be split. At that point, Wawrinka should find a way to tough out a third set before pulling away for the win in four sets.
He will see plenty of second serves and that is an area Wawrinka needs to make hay from if he is to come through as I expect.
Andreas Seppi-Denis Istomin Over 40.5 games: Andreas Seppi holds a 5-1 head to head record against Denis Istomin, but these two have had some titanic clashes recently, all coming at the Grand Slam events.
They have met in the First or Second Round at Wimbledon 2012, Australian Open 2013 and Wimbledon 2013 and all three of those matches have ended in five sets with Seppi winning twice and Istomin winning the other.
9 of those 15 sets played has seen at least 12 games played and that puts them in a strong position to cover this total of games even if the match ends in four sets. The value lies in taking the over and I will be hoping for yet another tight match between these two players with the potential of another fifth set decider in a Grand Slam taking place.
Andy Murray - 8.5 games v Florian Mayer: Anyone who has watched tennis for a significant period of time knows that Florian Mayer is one of the more awkward players to face on the Tour with his slice, moving forward to the net and strange choice of shots of both wings.
Andy Murray won't mind the sort of tennis that will be played in this one as he is comfortable using a variation of shots in his own matches, but he will also be focused on seeing off this threat in easier fashion than he may Leonardo Mayer in the last Round.
The key points will be important for the cover of this spread and Murray will have to serve better than he did in the last Round. He should also be aware of the conditions that are due to hit Flushing Meadows either today or tomorrow and he won't want to spend a lot of time on the court with the chance of having his Third Round match delayed until tomorrow, while his rivals all move through to the Fourth Round.
If Mayer doesn't serve well, it can be a very attackable shot and I expect Andy Murray to come through 64, 62, 63.
Tommy Haas - 1.5 sets v Mikhail Youzhny: It is funny to see Mikhail Youzhny come through the first two matches here without dropping a set and barely being in a spot of bother, but the competition level raises up in this one and I expect Tommy Haas to be too good for him.
Haas is definitely the better hard court player in my opinion and he has been playing well enough to take advantage of Juan Martin Del Potro's exit from this section and reach another Grand Slam Quarter Final following his exploits at the French Open.
At that event, Haas crushed Youzhny for the loss of 5 games, but I am expecting a much tighter battle this time with the way the Russian has been playing so far. Even though it will be closer, I think Haas is the better player off the ground and he can match the Youzhny backhand with his own.
The German also has the more effective serve and I do think he will have enough pressure supplied on the Youzhny serve to come through in three or four sets.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: This is a battle of two left-handers and one that should favour the former US Open Semi Finalist Angelique Kerber.
I believe Kerber is the better hard court player compared with Carla Suarez Navarro and I expect she will end up being a little too good for the Spaniard. Both players have been fairly comfortable this week through their first three matches, but Kerber should have a touch too much consistency to come through this match.
The one concern I have is that Kerber can sometimes lose focus in her matches as we saw in the Second Round, while Suarez Navarro could steal a set with a more level standard of play. As long as Kerber doesn't give up two breaks of serve in a set she may drop, I would still expect the German to come through 62, 36, 63.
MY PICKS: Stanislas Wawrinka win 3-1 @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Andreas Seppi-Denis Istomin Over 40.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 1.5 Sets @ 1.92 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
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