US Open Day 10 Picks 2013 (September 4th)

We were treated to the best match at the US Open, that I've seen any road, so far this tournament as Mikhail Youzhny took out Lleyton Hewitt in five sets.

It was a match that had everything from the tense, long rallies, to special winners, and to the shots that you just can't believe you saw being hit. I have been a little underwhelmed as a viewer so far as there haven't been those edge of the seat matches that this Grand Slam tends to throw out, but I am hoping for a couple of special matches over the last few days here.

The tournament has reached the latter stages of the event and that usually means some more close, interesting matches to watch, although you wouldn't have guessed that when seeing the wins Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams produced on Tuesday evening. The pair won all 5 sets they competed in and lost a combined 3 games in those sets in very one-sided matches.

Both Djokovic and Williams are considered as leading contenders to win the titles here, although Rafael Nadal and Victoria Azarenka will both feel they have a lot to say about that.


Today we will see the women's Semi Final line up being completed and will also find out which two players will be competing in the first men's Semi Final. Anyone who has taken the outright picks that were put up ahead of the tournament may want to lay the price they have for Richard Gasquet, who will be the underdog in his Quarter Final against David Ferrer.

The picks for Wednesday will be up in the hours ahead of play on Wednesday as we get down to the nitty-gritty of the event.


David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Richard Gasquet: I had picked Richard Gasquet to make it through as a surprise Semi Finalist in the tournament this year, but a lot of that was predicated on the fact that David Ferrer would not be his opponent at this stage.

That is because Ferrer has dominated Gasquet in their head to head meetings including beating him on the hard courts at the Australian Open and the US Open last season and he has now won 12 setsin a row since his sole loss to the Frenchman back in 2008.

I have no doubt that Ferrer is beginning to slow down and he hasn't looked his 'warrior' self in recent weeks, but his game matches up well against Gasquet as he can outlast him from the back of the court and has a little more consistency.

Gasquet also came through a tough Fourth Round match against Milos Raonic and he has had fitness problems in the past which has prevented him from making a real breakthrough at Grand Slam level. If there is going to be a surprise in this one, Gasquet has to get off to a fast start as Ferrer has been looking a little tired himself at times, but I can imagine this ending quite badly for the Frenchman if he loses the first set.

That is the point that tiredness begins to set in and Gasquet won't fancy another long match after his exploits in the last Round and it is where I give Ferrer the edge to come through the match.


Rafael Nadal - 8.5 games v Tommy Robredo: I was not the only person surprised to see Tommy Robredo beat Roger Federer in the last Round, but he was aided hugely by the Swiss man who is still trying to find the form that took him to 17 Grand Slam titles.

That won't be the case on Wednesday night as he faces Rafael Nadal in this Quarter Final- Nadal is the most in-form player on the Tour having won back to back titles in Montreal and Cincinnati and he has looked in dominant form in New York over the last ten days with the real goal of going all the way to his second US Open title.

Nadal is yet to drop his serve this week, although I expect Robredo to test him on that front... The problem for the older Spaniard will be making sure he looks after his serve consistently and that is an area I think Nadal will definitely make some hay.

I don't believe Nadal will be as kind as Federer when it comes to break points (Federer was 2/16 in the Fourth Round on those points against Robredo) and I also think there is a different pressure put on Robredo in this one and he can't have the same belief he may have brought into the last Round.

I still believe Federer would have won that match if he had taken the first set and I think Nadal will take a close first set tonight, demoralise Robredo and then move away from his compatriot with a 64, 63, 62 win.


Roberta Vinci v Flavia Pennetta: I expected to see a battle between two Italians at the Quarter Final stage for the second year in succession at the US Open, but I had tipped Sara Errani to come through this Quarter of the draw, although her run was ended by Flavia Pennetta who has taken advantage by reaching the Quarter Final instead.

Now Pennetta has the chance to beat Errani's doubles partner Roberta Vinci, but I was surprised that this has been set as a pick 'em match considering the consistency that Vinci has shown in the last couple of years.

Vinci has played well this week to get back to the Quarter Final where she was beaten last season, and she has consistent results across the board this season so it is no surprise to see her up at Number 13 in the World Rankings. It has been a long season, but Vinci has lost pretty much all of her matches to those players she wouldn't have really been expected to beat or those that were in strong form at the time.

There is no doubt that Pennetta, who has won as an underdog in the last three Rounds, is in very good form this week, but I am not convinced she has enough tennis in her legs to come through this match having had a number of losses in the lead up to the US Open.

The hard courts do favour the Pennetta game who has power off both wings, and she did crush the variation that Sara Errani brought to the table. However, Vinci has a better serve and it will be interesting to see how Pennetta deals with the slice backhand that can cause problems and I do think Vinci is going to prove her Ranking advantage and make the Semi Final.


MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Stan James (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 8.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roberta Vinci @ 1.97 Pinnacle (2 Units)

US Open Update: 26-32, - 4.98 Units (96 Units Staked, - 5.19% Yield)