Week 3 Thoughts
Dallas Cowboys in control of the NFC East: It has been a while since the Dallas Cowboys were in the Play Offs, but they look like they could break that recent streak by winning the NFC East this season, especially if they can consistently perform to the level they did in Week 3.
Dallas are a talented team that has had the problem of playing flawless football one week against a tough opponent, but then making the stupid mistakes that cost them a much more winnable game the week after. The Cowboys moved to 2-1 last weekend, but importantly saw the rest of the NFC East all lose and Dallas do look the best team in the Division.
Two game leads over the New York Giants and the Washington Redskins don't mean anything after three games of the season, but the latter two teams have some serious issues to rectify, while the Philadelphia Eagles haven't played well since Week 1.
On current form and the way these teams are heading, even a late season collapse that has affected Dallas in recent years won't be detrimental to them moving into the post-season. All four NFC East teams are on the road this weekend and Dallas could certainly extend their lead in the Division if they can prove themselves as one of the better teams in the NFL and beat the San Diego Chargers in California.
It's too early to crown the Denver Broncos as the AFC representative in the SuperBowl: I love the way the Denver Broncos have been playing to open the new season and they do look the best team in the AFC at this moment of time, but it's too early to see suggest no other team has a chance in the AFC to play in the SuperBowl.
Peyton Manning has carved up teams in the regular season, but it is hard to ignore the fact that his teams have eight times lost their first game in the Play Offs and they have only reached 2 SuperBowls in his time as a Quarter Back. I love the way Manning plays and his Offensive weapons look incredibly difficult to stop, but Denver were beaten in their first Play Off game last season and it is rare to see teams start off so hot and hold that level for the whole season.
In recent seasons, we have seen teams get hot in December and use that to propel themselves through to the Play Offs so that would be another reason to hold off crowing Denver anything before the end of September, although I do consider them the Number 1 team in my Rankings right now.
Aldon Smith should not have been playing last weekend: It is clear that Aldon Smith has a big future in the NFL, but the recently turned 24 year old has some personal demons to deal with as he was arrested for his second DUI on Friday.
Smith has since checked in to a rehab centre which means he will be missing the next month for the San Francisco 49ers, but that makes me question why he was playing against Indianapolis if there were some question marks as to how he was feeling mentally for that game.
The 49ers were flat and I don't want to put that on the Smith issue (the lack of Offensive weapons was the bigger problem), but you would have expected the young man not to have been put on the field if there was even a suggestion that he wanted to go and get some help in rehab.
I would say that issue was badly handled by San Francisco whose team on the field is also in a spot of bother ahead of a big NFC West game on Thursday Night Football.
Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers getting into it on the bench: There are some people out there that love to make a big thing out of any thing they see and the arrival of mediums like Twitter means there is the instant response of millions of people.
It was no surprise that some believe there is a rift in the Green Bay Packers between Head Coach and Quarter Back, but I am not one of them- these are two competitive men that want to win every game and the Packers are 1-2 so some disagreements are to be expected.
With a bye week up next, I am expecting the Packers to get back into the groove in Week 5 and this incident will long be forgotten by then.
How long before Josh Freeman is benched? There are some issues that Josh Freeman may be going through on a personal level, but it is clear that Greg Schiano isn't a fan and I don't think Freeman sees his contract extended beyond this season at Tampa Bay.
There are times Freeman has looked good, but he makes too many mistakes and misses Receivers- Tampa Bay's Defense has kept them in games this season, bar the idiotic penalty from that unit that cost them their game at the New York Jets in Week 1, but the Offense has failed to put the points on the board which has led the team to a 0-3 start.
I'm not sure Mike Glennon is the answer just yet because of his mobility issues and he is a rookie who you don't want to put in a pressure situation that could slow down his improvement with confidence possibly being affected. Either Tampa Bay could trade for a starter to carry them through this season, or they could use their bye week in Week 5 to help Glennon through but I would be surprised if the move is made this week.
EDIT: I was writing this small section on Tuesday, but have seen that the move to Mike Glennon may have been made on Wednesday.
A possible London franchise by the end of the decade? That was what was written in the Daily Telegraph as the NFL heads to London for the first of two regular season games this time around, but I think one of the main points was ignored and is still to be discussed going forward.
While the London games sell-out, I am still very much convinced it is down to the fact that these are rare games and seen as a 'special event' rather than enough to sustain a franchise. I could be wrong, but I don't know how many fans of the NFL would be willing to set aside their own team to support a new franchise eight times a year.
I particularly would wonder how many people would pay to watch a full season at Wembley Stadium if a team as bad as the Jacksonville Jaguars was the franchise over here- would the ticket sales be adversely affected if the team started 0-4 or had three consecutive losing seasons?
I always would say yes- fans will come to one or two games, maybe where their favourite team is coming to town as the road team, but I can't imagine they would sell enough season tickets to make a franchise sustainable unless they were winning... The bottom line is, a winning franchise is not going to move from their current market (unless Los Angeles put in an offer they couldn't refuse) and that means any London team would likely be a 'bad' team and I don't believe we would see sell outs on a weekly basis unless a big name team was playing here.
London team watch: Talking about the London games, how about those teams going 1-11 heading into Week 4 with half the 0-3 teams in the NFL being scheduled to come over here.
Top Five
1) Denver Broncos (3-0): Even after what I have said above, this Offense looks like it will be very tough to stop, especially if their Running Backs can also get large chunks of yardage off the ground.
2) Seattle Seahawks (3-0): At the moment, there is no better team in the NFC.
3) New England Patriots (3-0): The New England Patriots Offense looked a little better on Sunday and I think they will only improve with the impending return of Rob Gronkowski.
4) New Orleans Saints (3-0): The Offense finally played up to what is expected of them, but there is still more room for improvement while Rob Ryan continues to get the best out of this Defense.
5) Chicago Bears (3-0): There have been a lot of positives on both sides of the ball for the Bears which continued with a total beating of the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road.
Bottom Five
32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3): I'd be surprised if Jacksonville move out of this position during the course of the season and if they don't 'win' the Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft.
31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3): The Defense is better than advertised, but the Offense can't score points and that means they won't be winning games any time soon unless that changes.
30) Minnesota Vikings (0-3): Adrian Peterson's daughter put it best: 'I can't believe you lost to the Browns'.
29) New York Giants (0-3): The Giants hit a real low by failing to score against the Carolina Panthers and ending up on the wrong end of a 38-0 shelling.
28) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3): Pittsburgh have looked old, the Offense has struggled to maintain drives and are making too many mistakes, while the Defense can't win games on their own. London is very lucky to have the Steelers and the Vikings this weekend(!)
Week 4 Picks
Both the NFL and the NCAA College Football picks saw some late touchdowns go against them, but it could have been so much worse this week and I am glad to get out of it with the season still on the right side of zero.
Last weekend was weird in a number of ways- look at some of the strange plays that went against the picks during Week 3: I backed the Houston Texans and if someone had said they had only given up 65 yards at half time, you would never have guessed that they would be down by 11 points.
The Ravens had a pick-six and a punt return for Touchdowns, although they were much improved in the second half.
How about Green Bay leading by 3 with minutes ticking down and fumbling the ball on a fourth and inches when close to field goal range- that ball was returned for the winning Touchdown and saw that pick go down.
San Diego were up 4 points when giving up a Hail Mary Touchdown pass to Tennessee which saw that pick end in a push- it made it worse that the Titans, with Jake Locker, drove the length of the field in 2 minutes with no time outs.
Atlanta were up by 3 points with 4 minutes left and the ball on the Miami 20- Matt Bryant missed the 35 yard field goal that would have meant the Falcons would cover even if the Dolphins scored the winning Touchdown, but the miss and the ensuing Touchdown meant they missed the cover by 1 point.
Even with all that bad luck at the end of games, the picks ended with only a slight loss and that means we still see a profit for the season. Hopefully Week 4 isn't so erratic in terms of those plays at the end of games going against me after last weekend.
San Francisco 49ers @ St Louis Rams Pick: This is a big NFC West battle between two teams that are coming off back to back losses.
With one defeat already to a Divisional rival, the game is arguably more important for the San Francisco 49ers than the St Louis Rams who beat Arizona to open the season. The media have been focusing on Colin Kaepernick this week after his lacklustre performances against Seattle and Indianapolis, but Vernon Davis could be back in the line up and the Rams have given up a lot of yardage through the air.
After the way DeMarco Murray hammered the Rams on the ground, San Francisco's Offense should get on track this week with Kaepernick and Frank Gore being able to run the ball. The 49ers are likely going to stop a St Louis Offense being able to do the same as they are moving the ball at just 3.2 yards per clip this season and that means the pressure will be on Sam Bradford to keep the Offense on the field with his arm.
Bradford should have some success moving the ball through the air, but it is a big ask to do that throughout the game against this pass rush, even in the absence of Aldon Smith.
St Louis did give San Francisco problems last season, but the latter are 5-2-1 against the spread when coming off a loss even after the defeat to Indianapolis and they can bounce back here.
Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have made the change at Quarter Back, but things could easily get worse before they get better for them as they play their last game before the bye.
Everything I have read suggests Mike Glennon is not ready to come in and play, but I believe Josh Freeman had lost all support and the move was always going to be made sooner rather than later. With Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams both a little banged up, it will be tough for Glennon to move the chains through the air in this one, even though Arizona have given up a lot of yards this season albeit against pretty solid signal callers.
Doug Martin may struggle to run the ball meaning the pressure will be on Glennon in this one and that isn't a great spot for the Buccaneers to be in.
The Cardinals stayed on the East Coast last week and I think Carson Palmer can make enough plays to help them come through a tough road game and get back to 2-2 in the NFC West. Arizona are 8-5 against the spread as the road underdog in the last couple of seasons and this Tampa Bay team doesn't deserve to be a favourite on current performances and with a rookie Quarter Back making his first start.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Minnesota Vikings (in London) Pick: I know Minnesota have lost their starting Quarter Back, but it is not like they have a rookie or an inexperienced player taking over and I am not sure Pittsburgh deserve to be a field goal favourite over anyone right now.
I do think the Steelers are the better team in terms of talent, especially on the Defensive side of the ball, but they haven't played well enough to be the favourite by this margin.
Ben Roethlisberger will have success throwing the ball, but he will need his Offensive Line to be at their best and I also believe we are going to see a big game from Adrian Peterson with Jeremy Fulton opening holes for him.
If Peterson gets rumbling, Matt Cassel can make enough plays to help Minnesota cover this spread. Pittsburgh have been a poor favourite over the last twelve months, going 2-9 against the spread in that spot, and I think they've struggled enough this season to think they are laying too much in terms of points.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: I would be surprised if Indianapolis are not able to move the chains all day in this one and they look a team on the up. This could be a perfect letdown spot for them after their success at San Francisco last week, but playing a Divisional rival should keep them focused on the task at hand.
Indianapolis have a pretty balanced Offense, while Jacksonville have struggled in all three facets of an NFL game.
It will be hard for Blaine Gabbert to move the chains considering the pass rush that will likely be in his face, especially if the Jaguars go down by a couple of scores and I like the Colts to cover in this one.
The Jaguars are 5-12 against the spread as the home underdog in recent years and Indianapolis should prove to be good enough to cover for the second season in a row.
Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans Pick: There could be a lot of problems for Houston in this game if Andre Johnson is ruled out and I do think the line movement has changed enough for me to take an interest in the Seattle Seahawks.
Seattle's Defense will give Matt Schaub plenty of problems and this game could be more important to the Seahawks who want to show they are for real, while Houston could be flat after a poor loss in Baltimore.
It is easy to see that Houston could be 0-3 coming into this game as they recovered from a big deficit to beat San Diego in Week 1 and needed overtime after coming back from 8 points down to beat Tennessee before the loss last week.
I do feel Russell Wilson will make a couple more big plays than Matt Schaub in this one and that could be the difference in the game so I will back the Seattle team to win this game and cover the spread.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Denver Broncos Pick: Stopping Peyton Manning is going to be very difficult for the Philadelphia Eagles in this game and I think their Defense could have a hard time catching their breath in the altitude of Colorado. That will only make stopping Manning that much more difficult and there is no doubt that the Broncos will score points in this one.
The Eagles Defense could struggle in this altitude as they may have to last long drives against a methodical Manning, getting no time to recover their breath if the Offense keeps playing as fast as they do. If Michael Vick turns the ball over or the Eagles have a three and out, the Defense will not have much rest and that doesn't bode well for them.
With the way Denver's Offense has clicked early in the season, it is hard to see how they will be stopped in this one and I do like them to record yet another big win.
I just believe the Broncos will force turnovers and use those extra possessions to good advantage which will set them up for a cover of what looks a large spread at first glance.
Denver have improved to 7-2 against the spread as the home favourite with Peyton Manning behind Center.
Dallas Cowboys @ San Diego Chargers Pick: Out of the two teams, the Dallas Cowboys have the talent level and personnel on the Offense to move the chains with more consistency of the two teams and I do like the Cowboys to do that.
There will be times that Philip Rivers gets hot, but his Offensive Line could have at least 2 new starters this week and that doesn't bode well against a Dallas team that has managed to put a lot of pressure on the opposition Quarter Back through the first three weeks of the season.
If Dallas get that push up front, Rivers can get flustered and this Defense has shown a new found love for turning the ball over and that could be a big difference in the game.
As long as the Cowboys avoid mistakes when they have the ball, I see Dallas moving the chains whether they take to the air or pound the ball on the ground and I like the Cowboys to move to 3-1 in this one and perhaps increase their lead in the NFC East.
Miami Dolphins @ New Orleans Saints Pick: As a Miami Dolphins fan, it has been a long time since the team has started 3-0 and earning a place in the Play Offs is the expectation for the team now.
However, I have watched every one of their games this season from start to finish and I have seen a team that has just gotten the breaks at certain times which has helped them get to this record. The game against Atlanta saw Ryan Tennehill engineer an awesome drive that resulted in the winning Touchdown with seconds left to play, but the Dolphins were outgained in yardage for the third straight game and were fortunate to win that game that the Falcons seemed to dominate.
Injuries are also hurting on the Defensive side of the ball in this one and I think it is a big ask for them to come to the Saints home with those injuries and win.
Ryan Tannehill is likely to find himself under pressure all night with the blitzes and pressure the Saints are able to generate and it will be tough for him to keep making plays against this Rob Ryan Defense.
I also have a feeling that this game doesn't matter as much to Miami as it does for New Orleans- the Dolphins host Baltimore next week in what could be a pivotal game for the Wild Card spots, while New Orleans will have seen the Atlanta defeat last night and figure this to be a big opportunity to increase their lead in the NFC South.
New Orleans have been dominant at home under Sean Payton, especially in primetime games. They are 9-3 against the spread in night games at home since Drew Brees signed from the San Diego Chargers, while they are 28-13 against the spread as the home favourite in recent seasons.
The Saints have covered as the home favourite in both games they have played here this season and I like them to make this three in a row.
MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 3 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings + 3 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 8 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 7 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers @ St Louis Rams Pick: This is a big NFC West battle between two teams that are coming off back to back losses.
With one defeat already to a Divisional rival, the game is arguably more important for the San Francisco 49ers than the St Louis Rams who beat Arizona to open the season. The media have been focusing on Colin Kaepernick this week after his lacklustre performances against Seattle and Indianapolis, but Vernon Davis could be back in the line up and the Rams have given up a lot of yardage through the air.
After the way DeMarco Murray hammered the Rams on the ground, San Francisco's Offense should get on track this week with Kaepernick and Frank Gore being able to run the ball. The 49ers are likely going to stop a St Louis Offense being able to do the same as they are moving the ball at just 3.2 yards per clip this season and that means the pressure will be on Sam Bradford to keep the Offense on the field with his arm.
Bradford should have some success moving the ball through the air, but it is a big ask to do that throughout the game against this pass rush, even in the absence of Aldon Smith.
St Louis did give San Francisco problems last season, but the latter are 5-2-1 against the spread when coming off a loss even after the defeat to Indianapolis and they can bounce back here.
Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have made the change at Quarter Back, but things could easily get worse before they get better for them as they play their last game before the bye.
Everything I have read suggests Mike Glennon is not ready to come in and play, but I believe Josh Freeman had lost all support and the move was always going to be made sooner rather than later. With Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams both a little banged up, it will be tough for Glennon to move the chains through the air in this one, even though Arizona have given up a lot of yards this season albeit against pretty solid signal callers.
Doug Martin may struggle to run the ball meaning the pressure will be on Glennon in this one and that isn't a great spot for the Buccaneers to be in.
The Cardinals stayed on the East Coast last week and I think Carson Palmer can make enough plays to help them come through a tough road game and get back to 2-2 in the NFC West. Arizona are 8-5 against the spread as the road underdog in the last couple of seasons and this Tampa Bay team doesn't deserve to be a favourite on current performances and with a rookie Quarter Back making his first start.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Minnesota Vikings (in London) Pick: I know Minnesota have lost their starting Quarter Back, but it is not like they have a rookie or an inexperienced player taking over and I am not sure Pittsburgh deserve to be a field goal favourite over anyone right now.
I do think the Steelers are the better team in terms of talent, especially on the Defensive side of the ball, but they haven't played well enough to be the favourite by this margin.
Ben Roethlisberger will have success throwing the ball, but he will need his Offensive Line to be at their best and I also believe we are going to see a big game from Adrian Peterson with Jeremy Fulton opening holes for him.
If Peterson gets rumbling, Matt Cassel can make enough plays to help Minnesota cover this spread. Pittsburgh have been a poor favourite over the last twelve months, going 2-9 against the spread in that spot, and I think they've struggled enough this season to think they are laying too much in terms of points.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: I would be surprised if Indianapolis are not able to move the chains all day in this one and they look a team on the up. This could be a perfect letdown spot for them after their success at San Francisco last week, but playing a Divisional rival should keep them focused on the task at hand.
Indianapolis have a pretty balanced Offense, while Jacksonville have struggled in all three facets of an NFL game.
It will be hard for Blaine Gabbert to move the chains considering the pass rush that will likely be in his face, especially if the Jaguars go down by a couple of scores and I like the Colts to cover in this one.
The Jaguars are 5-12 against the spread as the home underdog in recent years and Indianapolis should prove to be good enough to cover for the second season in a row.
Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans Pick: There could be a lot of problems for Houston in this game if Andre Johnson is ruled out and I do think the line movement has changed enough for me to take an interest in the Seattle Seahawks.
Seattle's Defense will give Matt Schaub plenty of problems and this game could be more important to the Seahawks who want to show they are for real, while Houston could be flat after a poor loss in Baltimore.
It is easy to see that Houston could be 0-3 coming into this game as they recovered from a big deficit to beat San Diego in Week 1 and needed overtime after coming back from 8 points down to beat Tennessee before the loss last week.
I do feel Russell Wilson will make a couple more big plays than Matt Schaub in this one and that could be the difference in the game so I will back the Seattle team to win this game and cover the spread.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Denver Broncos Pick: Stopping Peyton Manning is going to be very difficult for the Philadelphia Eagles in this game and I think their Defense could have a hard time catching their breath in the altitude of Colorado. That will only make stopping Manning that much more difficult and there is no doubt that the Broncos will score points in this one.
The Eagles Defense could struggle in this altitude as they may have to last long drives against a methodical Manning, getting no time to recover their breath if the Offense keeps playing as fast as they do. If Michael Vick turns the ball over or the Eagles have a three and out, the Defense will not have much rest and that doesn't bode well for them.
With the way Denver's Offense has clicked early in the season, it is hard to see how they will be stopped in this one and I do like them to record yet another big win.
I just believe the Broncos will force turnovers and use those extra possessions to good advantage which will set them up for a cover of what looks a large spread at first glance.
Denver have improved to 7-2 against the spread as the home favourite with Peyton Manning behind Center.
Dallas Cowboys @ San Diego Chargers Pick: Out of the two teams, the Dallas Cowboys have the talent level and personnel on the Offense to move the chains with more consistency of the two teams and I do like the Cowboys to do that.
There will be times that Philip Rivers gets hot, but his Offensive Line could have at least 2 new starters this week and that doesn't bode well against a Dallas team that has managed to put a lot of pressure on the opposition Quarter Back through the first three weeks of the season.
If Dallas get that push up front, Rivers can get flustered and this Defense has shown a new found love for turning the ball over and that could be a big difference in the game.
As long as the Cowboys avoid mistakes when they have the ball, I see Dallas moving the chains whether they take to the air or pound the ball on the ground and I like the Cowboys to move to 3-1 in this one and perhaps increase their lead in the NFC East.
Miami Dolphins @ New Orleans Saints Pick: As a Miami Dolphins fan, it has been a long time since the team has started 3-0 and earning a place in the Play Offs is the expectation for the team now.
However, I have watched every one of their games this season from start to finish and I have seen a team that has just gotten the breaks at certain times which has helped them get to this record. The game against Atlanta saw Ryan Tennehill engineer an awesome drive that resulted in the winning Touchdown with seconds left to play, but the Dolphins were outgained in yardage for the third straight game and were fortunate to win that game that the Falcons seemed to dominate.
Injuries are also hurting on the Defensive side of the ball in this one and I think it is a big ask for them to come to the Saints home with those injuries and win.
Ryan Tannehill is likely to find himself under pressure all night with the blitzes and pressure the Saints are able to generate and it will be tough for him to keep making plays against this Rob Ryan Defense.
I also have a feeling that this game doesn't matter as much to Miami as it does for New Orleans- the Dolphins host Baltimore next week in what could be a pivotal game for the Wild Card spots, while New Orleans will have seen the Atlanta defeat last night and figure this to be a big opportunity to increase their lead in the NFC South.
New Orleans have been dominant at home under Sean Payton, especially in primetime games. They are 9-3 against the spread in night games at home since Drew Brees signed from the San Diego Chargers, while they are 28-13 against the spread as the home favourite in recent seasons.
The Saints have covered as the home favourite in both games they have played here this season and I like them to make this three in a row.
MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 3 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings + 3 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 8 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 7 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units
Season 2013: 14-11-1, + 1.86 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
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