Week 2 Thoughts
All the 0-2 teams are in desperation mode when it comes to making the Play Offs: Over the last four years, no team that has begun the season 0-2 have gone on to make the Play Offs and that doesn't bode well for some of the teams in the NFL this time around.
While there are some teams that have unsurprisingly lost two games in a row, for example the Jacksonville Jaguars, but the likes of Washington and Minnesota, who made the Play Offs last season, and Pittsburgh and the New York Giants will be extremely disappointed with their starts.
I think the stat is that only 10% of teams that have started 0-2 have made it to the Play Offs since 1990 and I wouldn't want to back any of these teams bucking the trend. If someone held a gun to my head, I would perhaps say one of the NFC East teams could possibly become one of the few teams that does make the post-season after this start as that Division doesn't look like one that will be dominated by any single team.
The New York Giants started 2007 with this record and won the SuperBowl- while I would be surprised if they manage that again, they and Washington are the teams most likely to get themselves out of this hole in my opinion, but this weekend is huge for both teams with a winnable games at Carolina and hosting Detroit respectively.
New England will get better as their Receivers spend more time in their system: I know a lot of people are down on the New England Patriots, but it seems to have been forgotten that they are 2-0 and they remain the team to beat in the AFC East.
There is a lot of inexperience in the Receiving corps for the Patriots, but you can look at things the other way round and say the Receivers are getting in a position to make catches but are perhaps being hindered by nerves with too many drops.
I can only see that area improving as they get more and more comfortable playing in the system and also having more time spent with Tom Brady in practice. The return of Rob Gronkowski may also relieve some of the pressure on the younger players on the roster and I do expect this Offense to improve as the season goes on.
How much fun to be a London NFL fan: With tickets being priced up to £100, how many people are going to be impressed that the four teams coming over to London are a combined 1-7 after the first two weeks of the season?
You'll get the spin from the TV networks and NFL UK as to the merits of the teams, and I am looking forward to seeing the likes of Troy Polamalu and Adrian Peterson, but these are some bad teams coming over this time around outside of the San Francisco 49ers.
The best thing is London gets to 'enjoy' the terrible Jaguars for another four years after this one and that is a team that looks like it is going to get a lot worse before things turn around.
Trent Richadson traded to the Indianapolis Colts: This was a late piece of business as I was actually putting this thread together and I was stunned by Cleveland's decision to move Trent Richardson on considering he was their first pick in the Draft last year.
To compound things, Cleveland actually gave up a few picks to move up and take St Louis Rams Number 2 Pick last year, but the new regime have made it clear that they need to start all over again on Offense.
The Defense looks good, but the Browns are going to struggle to score a lot of points this season although they are bringing in Willis McGahee in to take over as the starting Running Back by all accounts. Now the fans have to go through a season of struggle after all the excitement in pre-season, but Cleveland could make a real push for the Number 1 pick in the Draft as they 'challenge' Jacksonville for that position.
Indianapolis will be happy with what they have picked up and Trent Richardson is going to be a serviceable Running Back for them, but the Colts have a lot of problems on the Offensive Line and their Defense and I am not sure this move helps them make it back to the Play Offs this season.
However, Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw will give the Colts a strong rushing game and that may give Andrew Luck a little more time in the pocket and this does look a good move for them.
Top Five
1) Denver Broncos (2-0): Another beating was handed out by the Denver Broncos last weekend and there is a lot of positives about this squad.
2) Seattle Seahawks (2-0): After a tough first week of the season, Seattle's second consecutive blowout of the San Francisco 49ers gives them control of the NFC West and potential claim to being the best team in this Conference.
3) New England Patriots (2-0): Despite some of the Offensive mishaps, the Patriots are still unbeaten and the Defense looks like it can contain opponents enough to help New England continue winning.
4) Houston Texans (2-0): Houston could easily be 0-2 as they have recovered to win their first two games and that character and heart is hard to ignore.
5) New Orleans Saints (2-0): New Orleans should have blown out Tampa Bay last week, but they let them hang around as the Offense is still not quite on the same page.
Bottom Five
32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2): The Offense could barely do anything right against Oakland last weekend and the team now go into Week 3 as a massive 20 point underdog at Seattle.
31) Cleveland Browns (0-2): Brandon Weeden is out, Trent Richardson is gone as the two First Round Draft choices from last season are no good for the Browns. The Week 13 home game against Jacksonville may decide which of those teams 'wins' the Number 1 pick in the Draft.
30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2): The Defense kept them in the game against New Orleans last weekend, but the Offense had another terrible game. Josh Freeman wants out by all accounts and the Buccaneers don't seem to be heading anywhere.
29) Carolina Panthers (0-2): What a way to lose a game- Carolina gave up a Touchdown with seconds remaining in Buffalo and this is another Offense not quite on the same page as one another.
28) Washington Redskins (0-2): Robert Griffin is hobbled and the Defense can't stop anybody which leaves the Redskins in a tough spot in the NFC East.
Week 3 Picks
Barring an awful Offensive performance from the New Orleans Saints, it was a very strong week for the picks in Week 2 and that has brought the season back into the black. This week has a lot more close games to pick from and hopefully the picks can continue with the momentum of last week.
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: It is not very often that the SuperBowl Champions and the Baltimore Ravens will be set as an underdog at home, but I still believe that the Houston Texans are going to be a little too good and win this game.
I am not as high on Joe Flacco as some seem to be and Baltimore have lost a lot of key pieces in the off-season and don't quite look themselves at the moment. They were sloppy last week in a win over Cleveland and the Ravens are still getting some kinks out of their performance.
It is not as though the Texans have been winning games easily. but I think they will be able to move the chains a little more consistently of the two teams. Both will likely go to the air to move the Offenses and I like Andre Johnson/DeAndre Hopkins to make more plays than Torrey Smith/Marlo Brown and I like Houston.
However, I don't want to under-estimate a Baltimore team that have to be a little mad that they are dogged at home so I will keep units to a minimum.
New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers Pick: Both of these teams need to win this game desperately, but I do think the New York Giants are going to be a little too good for Carolina this week.
The Panthers are going into a bye to try and right their ship, but they haven't performed well in this spot over the last four years, losing all 4 games against the spread ahead of their bye.
Carolina just haven't looked like they are consistently on the same page and I am expecting a big day from Eli Manning to prove the difference between the teams. It will put Ron Rivera very much on the hot seat in Carolina, but the Giants do look a better team with more upside in this game.
New York are also 18-11 against the spread as the road favourite in recent years.
Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: Green Bay will be going into their bye next week and they have performed well in that position in recent years and I expect them to win this game too.
The Packers should have enough Offense to make life tough for Cincinnati and I still believe the Green Bay Defense is a little under-rated. They played well against Washington last weekend and a lot of the yards they gave up came after Green Bay had built a big lead in the game.
This is also a tough spot for Cincinnati as the game is coming between two Divisional games and the Bengals are also on a short week. They could keep up for a while, but the pressure of being in a shoot-out may work against Andy Dalton in the end and he may make one mistake that leaves Green Bay with the win.
Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The New Orleans Saints have been a strong home favourite under Sean Payton and this is a tough place for any visiting team to play and I expect the same for the Arizona Cardinals this weekend.
I just feel the New Orleans Defense will be able to make enough big plays to set them on their way in this one, while the passing attack led by Drew Brees may be able to get back on track after a couple of inconsistent weeks.
Arizona just haven't defended the pass well enough and Larry Fitzgerald being banged up will make it more difficult for Carson Palmer to keep up in this one.
San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans Pick: This is a tough spot for the Tennessee Titans after they blew a big lead against their Divisional rivals the Houston Texans last week and now they have to deal with Kenny Britt and his throwing his toys out of the pram.
Tennessee are up against a San Diego Defense that has struggled to defend the pass and is playing back to back road games, although I am not convinced that Jake Locker is capable of taking advantage of that consistently.
Philip Rivers is playing very effectively from the Quarter Back position for San Diego and I expect he will make some plays in this one, but he has to be careful of the Tennessee pass rush which has produced 7 sacks already this season. Ryan Mathews should find some running room to ease the pressure on Rivers and the Chargers are 5-2 against the spread as the road underdog since the beginning of last season.
There is every chance Tennessee struggle to get up for this game after coming so close to knocking off Houston and I'll take the points but only for a unit.
Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins Pick: While I have been impressed with the way Miami have begun this season, I don't think I am ready to see the Dolphins as a favourite to beat a team as talented as Atlanta.
Granted, the Falcons are missing a number of key players, while others are banged up, coming into this week, but they have an advantage at the Quarter Back position and I don't like Miami's chances of slowing down Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez in this game.
The Dolphins will get pressure on Ryan and that will give them a real chance to move to 3-0, but Atlanta have such a powerful Offense that you have to think Miami are going to feel the pressure of staying with them at times.
It should be a close game and so taking the points may be the best option.
Chicago Bears @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: It will come down to whether Jay Cutler can steer clear of some of the mistakes that have blighted his career as to whether Chicago can remain unbeaten or whether Pittsburgh can get their own season back on track.
However, it is hard to see how the Steelers move the chains in this one after their poor Offensive showing the first two weeks of the season, especially against a tough Bears Defense.
The Bears have been a decent road favourite in recent years (9-3 against the spread in last few years), while teams playing in London have a poor record against the spread in their final game before travelling to the United Kingdom as the Steelers will be doing next Sunday.
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos Pick: The way the Denver Broncos have played makes them the big favourite to win this game and move to 3-0, but Peyton Manning will have to be careful now the Offensive Line has a new Left Tackle to protect his blind side.
Oakland certainly get some pressure on the Quarter Back having picked up 9 sacks already, but Manning is capable of getting the ball out of his hands quick enough to negate that and he has plenty of weapons to choose from. Knowshon Moreno provided an effective ground game too last week, although it has been tough to run against the Raiders so far. However, I expect Manning throwing the ball will open up the running lanes and the Broncos should be able to score plenty of points against a banged up Secondary.
That means the pressure will be on Terrelle Pryor to keep the Raiders in the game- while he has shown plenty of athleticism behind Center, Pryor will need to make plays with his arm if Oakland are to make this a competitive game. Denver have shut down the running game of Baltimore and the New York Giants this season, but it is possible to move the chains through the air against them.
That is an area that will improve now Champ Bailey is expected to return, while Denver have got some pressure up front. The Oakland Wide Receivers have been guilty of too many drops early in the season and that will be a problem in a game where Denver are unlikely to make those mistakes.
The Broncos beat Oakland comfortably twice last season and they are 3-1 against the spread as a double-digit favourite.
I am not as high on Joe Flacco as some seem to be and Baltimore have lost a lot of key pieces in the off-season and don't quite look themselves at the moment. They were sloppy last week in a win over Cleveland and the Ravens are still getting some kinks out of their performance.
It is not as though the Texans have been winning games easily. but I think they will be able to move the chains a little more consistently of the two teams. Both will likely go to the air to move the Offenses and I like Andre Johnson/DeAndre Hopkins to make more plays than Torrey Smith/Marlo Brown and I like Houston.
However, I don't want to under-estimate a Baltimore team that have to be a little mad that they are dogged at home so I will keep units to a minimum.
New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers Pick: Both of these teams need to win this game desperately, but I do think the New York Giants are going to be a little too good for Carolina this week.
The Panthers are going into a bye to try and right their ship, but they haven't performed well in this spot over the last four years, losing all 4 games against the spread ahead of their bye.
Carolina just haven't looked like they are consistently on the same page and I am expecting a big day from Eli Manning to prove the difference between the teams. It will put Ron Rivera very much on the hot seat in Carolina, but the Giants do look a better team with more upside in this game.
New York are also 18-11 against the spread as the road favourite in recent years.
Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: Green Bay will be going into their bye next week and they have performed well in that position in recent years and I expect them to win this game too.
The Packers should have enough Offense to make life tough for Cincinnati and I still believe the Green Bay Defense is a little under-rated. They played well against Washington last weekend and a lot of the yards they gave up came after Green Bay had built a big lead in the game.
This is also a tough spot for Cincinnati as the game is coming between two Divisional games and the Bengals are also on a short week. They could keep up for a while, but the pressure of being in a shoot-out may work against Andy Dalton in the end and he may make one mistake that leaves Green Bay with the win.
Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints Pick: The New Orleans Saints have been a strong home favourite under Sean Payton and this is a tough place for any visiting team to play and I expect the same for the Arizona Cardinals this weekend.
I just feel the New Orleans Defense will be able to make enough big plays to set them on their way in this one, while the passing attack led by Drew Brees may be able to get back on track after a couple of inconsistent weeks.
Arizona just haven't defended the pass well enough and Larry Fitzgerald being banged up will make it more difficult for Carson Palmer to keep up in this one.
San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans Pick: This is a tough spot for the Tennessee Titans after they blew a big lead against their Divisional rivals the Houston Texans last week and now they have to deal with Kenny Britt and his throwing his toys out of the pram.
Tennessee are up against a San Diego Defense that has struggled to defend the pass and is playing back to back road games, although I am not convinced that Jake Locker is capable of taking advantage of that consistently.
Philip Rivers is playing very effectively from the Quarter Back position for San Diego and I expect he will make some plays in this one, but he has to be careful of the Tennessee pass rush which has produced 7 sacks already this season. Ryan Mathews should find some running room to ease the pressure on Rivers and the Chargers are 5-2 against the spread as the road underdog since the beginning of last season.
There is every chance Tennessee struggle to get up for this game after coming so close to knocking off Houston and I'll take the points but only for a unit.
Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins Pick: While I have been impressed with the way Miami have begun this season, I don't think I am ready to see the Dolphins as a favourite to beat a team as talented as Atlanta.
Granted, the Falcons are missing a number of key players, while others are banged up, coming into this week, but they have an advantage at the Quarter Back position and I don't like Miami's chances of slowing down Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez in this game.
The Dolphins will get pressure on Ryan and that will give them a real chance to move to 3-0, but Atlanta have such a powerful Offense that you have to think Miami are going to feel the pressure of staying with them at times.
It should be a close game and so taking the points may be the best option.
Chicago Bears @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: It will come down to whether Jay Cutler can steer clear of some of the mistakes that have blighted his career as to whether Chicago can remain unbeaten or whether Pittsburgh can get their own season back on track.
However, it is hard to see how the Steelers move the chains in this one after their poor Offensive showing the first two weeks of the season, especially against a tough Bears Defense.
The Bears have been a decent road favourite in recent years (9-3 against the spread in last few years), while teams playing in London have a poor record against the spread in their final game before travelling to the United Kingdom as the Steelers will be doing next Sunday.
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos Pick: The way the Denver Broncos have played makes them the big favourite to win this game and move to 3-0, but Peyton Manning will have to be careful now the Offensive Line has a new Left Tackle to protect his blind side.
Oakland certainly get some pressure on the Quarter Back having picked up 9 sacks already, but Manning is capable of getting the ball out of his hands quick enough to negate that and he has plenty of weapons to choose from. Knowshon Moreno provided an effective ground game too last week, although it has been tough to run against the Raiders so far. However, I expect Manning throwing the ball will open up the running lanes and the Broncos should be able to score plenty of points against a banged up Secondary.
That means the pressure will be on Terrelle Pryor to keep the Raiders in the game- while he has shown plenty of athleticism behind Center, Pryor will need to make plays with his arm if Oakland are to make this a competitive game. Denver have shut down the running game of Baltimore and the New York Giants this season, but it is possible to move the chains through the air against them.
That is an area that will improve now Champ Bailey is expected to return, while Denver have got some pressure up front. The Oakland Wide Receivers have been guilty of too many drops early in the season and that will be a problem in a game where Denver are unlikely to make those mistakes.
The Broncos beat Oakland comfortably twice last season and they are 3-1 against the spread as a double-digit favourite.
MY PICKS: Houston Texans - 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
New York Giants - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers + 3 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 14.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New York Giants - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers + 3 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 14.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units
Season 2013: 11-7, + 2.96 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
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