The European Champions League and Europa League Group Stage kick off this week and it will be interesting to see if the English sides can improve on their fortunes from last season in the former competition. There were no English teams in the Quarter Finals last year, although Manchester United will still feel aggrieved in the manner in which they were beaten by Real Madrid in the last 16.
Looking at the teams in the Champions League, I would be surprised if we do see an English winner this time around as Borussia Dortmund, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich all look a little too good for the teams from Britain. I believe the likes of Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus could be real dark horses in the competition, although the latter will have to show some marked improvement from their 0-4 aggregate loss to Bayern Munich in the Quarter Final last year.
I am expecting Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea to make it through to the last 16 at the very least this season, although I have made my reservations about thinking the United Group is anything but a walkover before. Arsenal and in particular Celtic are going to have a very tough task in even coming through the Group Stage, but I expect the former to sneak through and the latter to exit Europe completely.
Napoli and Borussia Dortmund will certainly make life tough for Arsenal who could have expected a far easier path through to the next stage as one of the top seeds, but they seem to have taken the place of Manchester City who have had the tough draw in the last two seasons.
The Europa League is always much tougher to predict a winner as some teams really do see it as a distraction, while adding eight teams that finished third in their Group in the Champions League just makes things all the more murkier. Over the last couple of seasons, the likes of Chelsea, Manchester United and Manchester City have all finished in a position to fall into this competition so picking a winner before the knock-out stage is difficult.
Bayern Munich v CSKA Moscow Pick: There have been plenty of changes at Bayern Munich this summer and there are still some adjustments being made by the players now they have a new voice to listen to in the dressing room. Pep Guardiola has taken over from Jupp Heynekes and is demanding a more possession based approach rather than the direct, attacking style that the latter used to win the treble last season.
I still expect Bayern Munich to be too strong for a CSKA Moscow team that will travel to Germany without Alan Dzagoev, but they will have to be patient as the Russian side will look to defend in numbers.
However, Bayern have plenty of match winners in their squad and are going to be tough to contain for 90 minutes as Chelsea found when defending in numbers in their recent European Super Cup game. Bayern won 4 of their 6 home games in the Champions League by at least 2 goals with half of those games ending in 3 + wins.
CSKA were beaten 4-1 in their last Champions League away game at Real Madrid in the last 16 in 2012 and they may just be beaten fairly comfortably in this first game of the Group, although they will already have targeted the other 5 games as the ones where they are most likely to gather points to move on to the last 16.
Manchester United v Bayer Leverkusen Pick: There has to be a real improvement in performance if Manchester United are going to have a productive month with the number of big games coming up.
It was lethargic and uninspired at times on Saturday and I don't know what would have happened if Crystal Palace didn't have a man sent off and conceded a controversial penalty. Palace created enough problems to think United won't have things their own way in this one and a lot will depend on how ambitious Bayer Leverkusen are in this first game of the Group.
European teams have come to Old Trafford and caused problems and that may make life a little more to United's liking as there is more space to create their own chances.
United look incredibly short considering the way they have performed in their opening four League games, but there could be goals in this one if Leverkusen come out to play. The latter won at Bayern Munich so clearly are capable of winning here and this looks like being a game that will end with a 2-1 scoreline.
Olympiacos v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: I really don't like under-estimating a team like Olympiacos at home as they have had some big performances in recent years here in the Champions League. They have scored plenty of goals in front of their own fans and Michel, the manager, has indicated that he will want his side to get on the front foot in this one.
Over the last couple of seasons, Arsenal have lost here twice and Borussia Dortmund have lost here once. That should keep Paris Saint-Germain focused on the task at hand and make it clear that this won't be a walkover of a game.
I was impressed with the way PSG played away from home last season, winning tough games in Dinamo Zagreb, Dynamo Kiev and Valencia and they too were comfortable scoring goals on their travels. That is not a surprise considering the talent they have secured since their Middle East owners took over the club.
I think it is tough to pick a winner, but I think the over 2.5 goals is being priced a tad too high and that is where I will make my pick. It is likely that both teams will score in this one, so a winner would need two goals to take the points and I do think both teams will be looking for those points.
Real Sociedad v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: This is an important game for both teams, even at this early stage of the Group, as both will look to earn their points from games outside of the two they have against Manchester United.
I really like the youthful exuberance of Real Sociedad and I am expecting a lot from this side in the Group and I can see them pose a lot of problems for Shakhtar Donetsk in this one. While the latter has more European experience, they have lost a few really talented pieces of their squad and it will take their new signings a little time to get used to this level of football too.
Real Sociedad play in a tough League and we have seen how well the Spanish sides have done in recent seasons- last year 3 of the 8 Quarter Finalists came from Spain and I do believe the home side are going to get off to a good start.
It will be close, but Real Sociedad to nick a win looks the call at odds against.
Chelsea v Basel Pick: Jose Mourinho hasn't exactly seen his side fire on all cylinders for a prolonged period since returning to Stamford Bridge and I think he will want more from his side after their 1-0 loss at Everton on Saturday.
Basel have proven themselves to be a really awkward side for English sides to play in the last couple of years as they have avoided defeat in 4 games against Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur before Chelsea did the double over them in the Semi Final.
There will be some tension in the home side that they will look to exploit, but Chelsea also do look a little too talented in the forward positions and I expect them to create chances.
It will be close for a while, but I expect Chelsea to pick up another home win in this competition and I will back them to win by a couple of goals at least.
Marseille v Arsenal Pick: This could be a very tense game as both teams know how tough this Group is potentially going to be and I do think it will be decided by a goal for either team.
I can't separate them in terms of a winner, but I don't anticipate a lot of goals in this one and a low-scoring draw is very much in play too. Arsenal have played well in the last few weeks, but I think Marseille present a much stronger challenge than the ones they have faced away from home this season.
I was considering going for under 1.5 goals as that is a big player when English sides visit Marseille in recent years, but Arsenal's attacking potential does make that a little too risky for me and I will instead play under 2.5 goals at a decent looking price.
Atletico Madrid v Zenit St Petersburg Pick: Atletico Madrid have been tipped up as a dark horse to win the Champions League and there is plenty of quality to go with the high work rate in the squad that Diego Simeone has put together at the Vicente Calderon.
Atletico brushed aside most of their competition at home last season, although will have painful memories of the last time a side from Russia visited them as they were beaten 0-2 by Rubin Kazan in the Europa League last 32 while defending their title last season.
However, Zenit St Petersburg haven't been the best travellers in the Champions League and have scored just 1 goal in their last 5 away from home and that means it is no surprise they have lost 3 of those games.
That run includes a 3-0 defeat in Malaga last season and they may return from Spain with nothing again this time around. Hulk has form in scoring here against Atletico during his Porto days, but he may be absent for Zenit and I do think they will have a much tougher scoring goals than they did against Nordsjaelland and Pacos de Ferreira in the qualifiers.
Austria Vienna v Porto Pick: There is a big difference in terms of experience in this match, while I also believe Porto are a lot stronger in terms of the talent they can put on to the field for this Group game.
Credit to this Austria Vienna side for knocking out Dinamo Zagreb and making it through to the Group Stage of the Champions League in its current format for the first time, but Porto are a couple of levels higher in terms of quality.
Porto should be confident from a strong start made to the new season and they did secure a 0-2 win at the aforementioned Dinamo Zagreb in this opening game last season. I expect them to have a similar kind of result in this one and put themselves in a strong position in the Group even at this early point.
MY PICKS: Bayern Munich - 2 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Manchester United-Bayer Leverkusen Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Olympiacos-PSG Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Real Sociedad @ 2.30 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.17 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Marseille-Arsenal Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.90 Stan James (1 Unit)
Atletico Madrid Win to Nil @ 2.40 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Porto - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
September Update: 3-2, + 2.10 Units (11 Units Staked, + 19.09% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment