Australian Open Outright Picks 2013

Last season was an interesting season for my tennis picks as a quick look at the records showed a really positive first six months of the season followed by a sub-standard second half of the season. I have made a few adjustments to how I will make the picks and so far so good in the new season which has started positively enough.

Now we get to the first Grand Slam event of the season and I think it is an unfortunate spot that both Men's and Women's Draws look like they will be processions by the favourites. However, that may be too simply of a way of looking at things so below I will break down the draw and any outright picks I make from the tournament ahead of the Midnight start in the UK.

Men's Draw

First Quarter

Let's face facts for a minute- Novak Djokovic couldn't have asked for a better draw if he had hand picked it himself and I see very few problems for him in this quarter.

The only potential issues for Djokovic before the Quarter Final are matches against Ryan Harrison and Stanislas Wawrinka in the Second and Fourth Round respectively, but the World Number 1 is going to be far too strong for them as long as he handles the weather which is supposed to be scorching during the first week of the tournament.

Novak has had issues with the weather in the past, but nothing like that in the last couple of seasons and winning this event the last two years suggests he is very comfortable playing in Melbourne.

The biggest threat to Djokovic in this section is Tomas Berdych, but the Czech player hasn't really opened 2013 firing on all cylinders and he doesn't have a good record against the World Number 1. Berdych has lost 9 in a row against Djokovic and I would be very surprised if anyone but Novak Djokovic is playing in the Semi Final in under two weeks time.

Pick: Novak Djokovic, who else?

Second Quarter

The biggest news in the Men's side of the draw remains the continued absence of Rafael Nadal and that means one quarter is always looking a little 'weaker' than the others... It is the second quarter that looks very open in this tournament.

David Ferrer is the top seed in the section in the absence of Nadal and he actually has a real chance of overtaking his compatriot into the official World Number 4 Ranking. So I guess Ferrer is going through to the Semi Final with the open nature of the draw? Not in my opinion anyway...

There are a number of very awkward matches for Ferrer and I have to say there is every chance he won't even reach the Quarter Final, let alone the Semi Final. The Spaniard could face Ivo Karlovic in the Second Round, Marcos Baghdatis in the Third Round and a very awkward Kei Nishikori in the Fourth Round and there is a chance that the latter two players can cause a surprise in my opinion.

Baghdatis' sole win over Ferrer came at the Australian Open in 2010, while Nishikori has beaten Ferrer in 2 of their 3 meetings, including at the US Open when he outlasted Ferrer in a five setter. I am expecting big things of Nishikori this season and I think he has the talent to break into the top ten this season and could be the man to take advantage of the section.

There are also a couple of other dangerous players in this section with Janko Tipsarevic and Grigor Dimitrov in the lower half and it will be interesting to see if the latter can make his first big breakthrough at Grand Slam level.

Pick: Might be a surprise in Kei Nishikori making his breakthrough at Grand Slam level


Third Quarter
After winning the US Open to take home his maiden Grand Slam title, it is no surprise that Andy Murray is a leading contender to win the Australian Open this time. Murray can't be too disappointed with the early draw for him and I fancy the British player to get through to the Quarter Final without too much difficulty at all.

The biggest disappointment for Murray will be the fact that he has been drawn in the same half of the draw as Roger Federer, while the big threat in this section is Juan Martin Del Potro... There were definite signs in 2012 that Del Potro is recovering something of the form that took him to the US Open title in 2009 and I do believe he is the biggest threat to win a Grand Slam outside of the top four.

Murray has dominated the head to head between the players, but the Argentine does have the weapons that can cause a lot of problems for the World Number 3 and it should be a very fascinating Quarter Final if both come through their early matches.

To be honest, there aren't too many threats in my opinion with Marin Cilic likely the one player that could put a spanner in the works- however, he was beaten heavily by Juan Martin Del Potro throughout 2012 and I would fancy something similar here so the two top seeded players clash.

Pick: Andy Murray likely to be a little too consistent for Juan Martin Del Potro in the Quarter Final


Fourth Quarter
The final quarter is where Roger Federer has been placed and I am already looking forward to a potential clash between him and Bernard Tomic in the Third Round. Both have made a few snippy comments about one another in the press and I think that could be a fascinating match to see how far Tomic has come in the last twelve months.

I do have a couple of concerns about Federer ahead of this tournament as he has not taken part in his usual preparations in Doha and there have been suggestions that he isn't at 100% at the moment in terms of his health. Federer should be comfortable early, but matches against Tomic and Milos Raonic could be very awkward and energy sapping both mentally and physically.

Other players that will be looking to take advantage of the quarter are the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Richard Gasquet, but both can be guilty of mental lapses that costs them matches. I do like Tsonga when is on fire and we have seen what he has done in Australia in the past, while he also has had the bettet of Roger Federer in Grand Slam events.

However, we may not see a real change in Tsonga until he has spent a few more months with Roger Rasheed and I still think the section is in Federer's control although I would take a watching brief as to how he looks early on.

Pick: Still got to fancy Roger Federer from the section.


Outright Picks
There really isn't much to say about the Men's draw really this year and I can't see anyone other than the top two favourites, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, winning the tournament.

To that end, I think the better 'value' is picking Andy Murray to that end, but I do think he has a couple of potentially very tough matches whereas I believe Novak Djokovic has a more 'comfortable' path to the Final.

Therefore, taking the evens that Djokovic wins the tournament looks the 'boring' call and the one I will make.

One other pick I will take from the Men's draw is taking Kei Nishikori to be one of the surprise Semi Finalists by winning the second quarter of the draw at a decent price. The Australian Open is famed for a surprise player going deep into the tournament, especially as the early season form can make some of the top players vulnerable.

I think Nishikori could have a big year on the Tour if he stays healthy and he has beaten David Ferrer, the top seed in this section, at a Grand Slam in the past and he looks like someone that could very much go deep in this tournament.

Women's Draw

First Quarter

The top seed at the Australian Open on the Women's side of the draw is also the defending Australian Open Champion and Victoria Azarenka will feel she can go very close again this season.

Azarenka couldn't have asked for a much better way to ease her way into this tournament and I see her barely dropping games, let alone sets, on the way through to a Quarter Final.

At that stage, there are players like Carolina Wozniacki, Sara Errani, Anastasia Pavyluchenkova and Sabine Lisicki that could stand in the way of the World Number 1, but I would favour Azarenka to beat any of those players.

Pick: Not much to say except I think Victoria Azarenka comes through

Second Quarter

While the first quarter of the draw is dominated by the presence of Victoria Azarenka, the second quarter is one where Serena Williams stands out far more than any of her rivals.

Let's face facts- when Serena is fully motivated, no player on the WTA Tour comes close to competing with her... She will have a couple of blips, but mentally she is far stronger than 99% of the players and it does takes all the stars to align to see her beaten.

That is not to say that this is a cakewalk for Serena as we did see her lose surprising matches against Ekaterina Makarova and Virginie Razzano at the Australian Open and French Open respectively, while she could have been upset by Jie Zheng at Wimbledon and Victoria Azarenka at the US Open.

Unfortunately for those waiting for Williams to lose, I don't think there is a player with the combination of mentality and ability to knock her off in this section before the Semi Final. Even the likes of Petra Kvitova have been in such poor form that is hard to see anything but a Serena stroll to a big Semi Final which would decide the World Number 1 Ranking.

Pick: Serena Williams all day long for me

Third Quarter

With the two big stars of the Women's game on one side of the draw, there is every chance for a surprise Finalist from the bottom half of the draw. The third quarter has a few in-form players within it including Na Li, Mona Barthel and Agnieszka Radwanska.

Li and Radwanska have both won tournaments already this season, although it is the latter that has the better form coming into the Australian Open. However, Radwanska could face a real test in the Third Round if she is faced with Mona Barthel, although winning that match could give her the momentum to reach her second Grand Slam Final in the last three tournaments.

Another hope in this section is Samantha Stosur, but her poor record in her home Grand Slam does make it tough to foresee her getting through the section, although she has dominated Na Li, a potential Fourth Round opponent.

With other players like Ana Ivanovic and Julia Goerges amongst the section, it could be the player that comes through who is battle hardened to reach the Final.

Pick: Agnieszka Radwanska has been in fine form and that can continue here

Fourth Quarter

Usually, the first player you would mention in this final quarter of the draw is Maria Sharapova, but there are enough concerns about her fitness to think this could be a section won by another player.

There are plenty of candidates with Venus Williams and Angelique Kerber amongst the players in the section and it is the latter that could be the most interesting. Kerber has really developed as a player over the last 18 months and she could may some hay in this section if Sharapova is not fit to go to deep into the draw.

Kerber should have the better of Tamira Paszek and either Ekaterina Makarova or Marion Bartoli and she definitely looks a live contender in this one. The German also began to show some real form in the Grand Slams last season and some consistency too in reaching the Semi Final at Wimbledon and the Quarter Final at the French Open.

I would favour Sharapova over Kerber if the Russian was at full fitness, but she did withdraw from tournaments this season to get ready for this one and it may just be Kerber who takes advantage.

Pick: I like Angelique Kerber to find her way to the Semi Final

Outright Picks

I think it is really hard to ignore Serena Williams as a winner of the Australian Open, but at odds on it does seem a little pointless to back her to win this tournament.

Instead, it may be an idea to back a couple of the outsiders from the bottom half of the draw at bigger odds- the first of those I will back is Agnieszka Radwanska as she has shown some very good form to open 2013 and could take advantage of the two big favourites being on the other side.

Radwanska has reached a Grand Slam Final before so the mental side should be covered for her and I like the Pole as one of my picks.

The second pick I will make from the Women's draw is taking Angelique Kerber to come through and win the fourth quarter at a decent price. With doubts surrounding the health of Maria Sharapova, Kerber does look the best player in the section to take advantage and did reach a Grand Slam Semi Final last season and she was also a Semi Finalist at the US Open in 2011.

The German could very much do the same thing here and I like the odds on offer for her to be my second pick from the outright markets.

MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Novak Djokovic Winner @ 2.00 Paddy Power (4 Units)
Kei Nishikori Win Second Quarter @ 13.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Agnieszka Radwanska @ 15.00 Coral (1 Unit E/W)
Angelique Kerber Win Fourth Quarter @ 6.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Season 2013: + 5.97 Units (46 Units Staked, + 12.98% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

NFL Divisional Round Play Off Picks 2012

I didn't post up my picks for Saturday's games in the Divisional Round as I wasn't overly convinced about either, but it turned out they went 1-1 (picked Denver on the spread and over 45 points in the San Francisco game).

Both games surprised me yesterday- I was completely bamboozled by John Fox's decision to NOT let Peyton Manning throw the ball and engineer a late drive to put the game to bed, although it wasn't the Head Coach's fault that Raheem Moore took the worst angle possible as a Safety in allowing Baltimore to tie the game with 31 seconds left.

I also thought the San Francisco game would be much closer, but I guess Colin Kaepernick had seen what Joe Webb was able to do against the Green Bay Packers last week and he just took it to the next level. Kaepernick was brilliant, making some clutch throws and the correct decision when to run and when to put the ball into the hands of Frank Gore.

The dominant performance of the San Francisco team also confirmed that Jim Harbaugh was right to make the change from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick and I am beginning to think this will be the team that will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this season.

Harbaugh Bowl is still a possibility in the big game, but I am still holding sway with New England in the AFC, particularly as they will have home field advantage in both games left if they win out.


Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: I really am not a big fan of when one team is being favoured in all quarters, yet they are still being given points as the layers are generally not silly people.

However, there are so many elements of this game that are favouring the Seattle Seahawks that I have to say the points are too appealing to ignore.

Seattle are going to be able to run the ball against the Atlanta Falcons and they should be able to keep Russell Wilson in short yardage situations throughout the game. Marshawn Lynch and Wilson both provide the ammunition to run the ball straight at Atlanta and the Falcons have not been good against the rush all season.

The lack of pressure they get from their Defensive Line will be another issue for Atlanta and Wilson will have time to find receivers downfield and the Quarter Back has looked after the ball enough to think Seattle are going to score at least 21-24 points in this one.

That'll put the pressure on Matt Ryan who has yet to win a Play Off game and who has seen his team beaten heavily in their last 2 Play Off appearances against the Green Bay Packers and the New York Giants.

Ryan is going to be under pressure from a Seattle Defense that has got a lot of pressure on opposition Quarter Backs, while the match up again is in the Seahawks favour. The Seattle Secondary is capable of taking away Roddy White and Julio Jones just enough to force Atlanta to settle for field goals or having to punt the ball away and that is mainly because they will become one-dimensional with their Offense.

It is possible to find some running lanes against Seattle, but Michael Turner may not be the Running Back to expose those flaws and that will mean Matt Ryan is left in long yardage situations and have to move the chains with his arm.

I can see a big turnover going in favour of Seattle in this one and I'll take the field goal worth of points in this one. However, I am limiting my interest simply because this isn't the best spot in terms of time and having to play on the East Coast for Seattle.


Houston Texans @ New England Patriots Pick: I hate big spreads in the Play Offs and I guess I haven't learned my lesson from the Denver Broncos game last night as I am going to back the New England Patriots to win this one and cover the 9.5 point spread.

This pick isn't solely because New England are at home where they absolutely smashed Houston to bits in the regular season, but mainly because I think the Patriots are going to be very tough to stop when they have the ball and they have too many weapons for the Texans Defense.

For Houston to have any chance in the game, they have to get Arian Foster going in a similar manner to how he went off against the Cincinnati Bengals last weekend. The whole Houston Offense is based on the fact that they can get the run established and that opens up the play-action for Matt Schaub, a Quarter Back that can struggle when the pressure is on him to drop back and find receivers in regular formations.

The problem for the Texans is that New England have been very stout against the run this season and Aqib Talib is good enough to at least restrict Andre Johnson in the passing game. If those two players do not get it going, Houston just aren't going to keep up with the Patriots.

I am expecting Tom Brady to dissect this Houston Defense again, especially with Rob Gronkowski back in the line up. While Houston are healthier on that side of the ball, New England have enough weapons that cause match up problems, particularly the two Tight Ends, and they should be able to move the chains fairly comfortably.

The Patriots also have a solid rushing game to complement Brady and they will find running room if Houston decide they are going to drop men into coverage to stop the aerial threat. This should all in all lead to more touchdowns rather than field goals and I like the Patriots to cover.


MY PICKS: Seattle Seahawks + 3 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 9.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekend Football Picks (January 12-13)

Been very late with this thread this week as I have had a lot of work to get through, but these will be the games I play from the action this weekend.


Queens Park Rangers v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This is the grudge match between Andre Villas-Boas and Harry Redknapp with both seemingly taking shots at the other during the course of the season, although all digs have been subtle for the most part.

While the managers might not get on, the game will be decided by the 22 players on the pitch and I can't help but feel Tottenham Hotspur have the match winners... However, that didn't help Chelsea who were beaten 0-1 by Queens Park Rangers a couple of weeks ago so Spurs have to be wary.

Then again, Tottenham do seem a much freer side when they play away from White Hart Lane as the counter-attack ability of Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon can exploit gaps in the home team who are expected to push forward and get in amongst the goals. I expect Spurs to create chances and I still can't get the memory of Liverpool's comprehensive win at Loftus Road out of my mind.

Rangers looked in disarray at the back in that game and Liverpool could have made it much worse than the 0-3 scoreline it finished and I think Spurs will do enough to win this game too. They have the second most away wins in the Premier League this season and have won games at Fulham, Sunderland, Aston Villa, Southampton and Reading so I can see them completing the set against another one of the sides at the bottom of the table.

Instead of playing the odds on card for the away win, I think there is better value picking Tottenham to win the game with at least 3 or 4 goals scored in the match- all of their wins over the bottom clubs would have satisfied that criteria, while QPR have lost 4 of their 5 games at home in the Premier League in the same situation.


Aston Villa v Southampton Pick: Time is seemingly running out for Paul Lambert at Villa Park after their embarrassing 3-1 loss at Bradford in the Capital One Cup Semi Final First Leg on Tuesday night. It isn't just losing to lower League opposition that is piling on the pressure, but the simple fact that Aston Villa are in desperate trouble near the bottom of the Premier League.

That makes this a game a 'must win' for the manager with rumours surrounding his future and the likes of Roberto Di Matteo being linked to the manager job. Lambert has had some successful results and it did seem he was turning a corner for the club around 5 weeks ago, but it has still turned sour.

Going through a run of 3 defeats and conceding 15 goals without reply didn't help, particularly the 0-3 loss to Wigan Athletic. Now they face a Southampton side that is more than capable of scoring goals anywhere and one that will have more 'belief' than their counterparts despite a 1-5 loss in the FA Cup to Chelsea last weekend.

At the end of the day, Southampton have started getting results away from home, beating Queens Park Rangers and drawing at Fulham and Stoke City in their last 4 on their travels. The Saints should have also beaten Stoke when leading 1-3, but they do remain a little vulnerable at the back.

Can Villa exploit these vulnerabilities? They have looked short of confidence up front and have struggled for goals for much of the season and I think the layers are taking a chance by offering Southampton at the big prices they are. It has tempted me too much and I think the value is on the away side in this one so I will have a small interest.


Norwich City v Newcastle United Pick: Both of these sides have taken a number of body blows in recent weeks and that has seen both in the midst of a poor run of form, although I do think Norwich City are in the slightly better position of being able to do something about it this weekend.

Losing to the likes of Chelsea and Manchester City is no disgrace for Norwich, especially not how they pushed the latter, and other losses at West Brom and West Ham United are at least a little understandable. Norwich also beat Peterborough in the FA Cup last weekend so at least aren't coming into this one off a losing run.

The same cannot be said of Newcastle United who have lost 4 in a row in all competitions culminating in that poor effort on the South Coast when beaten 2-0 by Brighton in the FA Cup last weekend. Alan Pardew has mentioned that the squad is beginning to get a little healthier, but it may take Yohan Cabaye a couple of games to get back up to speed, while the sale of Demba Ba does hurt them.

Shola Ameobi is also suspended and I just don't see them scoring enough goals in this one against a Norwich side that had defended well for the most part this season.

My biggest concern is that Norwich come into the game believing a draw is the best way to get off their 4 game losing run in the Premier League, but I think they can create chances and will do just enough to see of Newcastle here at odds against.


Stoke City v Chelsea Pick: Well I guess Sir Alex Ferguson can't be right about everything- Sir Alex insisted that Rafa Benitez was 'lucky' to be able to add a World Club Championship to his CV as well as a chance in the Capital One Cup after the Spaniard took over at Chelsea, but both of those competitions look beyond Benitez' grasp now.

Chelsea have already lost out in the World Club Championship, while a 0-2 loss to Swansea in the First Leg of the Capital One Cup Semi Final at Stamford Bridge puts the Blues in a big hole... I'm pretty sure the Brittania Stadium is the last place they would have wanted to be on Saturday afternoon.

However, Chelsea have shown more toughness on their travels than they have at Stamford Bridge in recent weeks and they are actually riding a 5 game away winning run, which includes ending Everton's unbeaten home record this season.

They will cause problems for Stoke, but I also believe fully that Stoke will cause problems for them and there is every chance that the draw specialists in the Premier League will add another to their list.

Stoke are very tough to play here as shown by the fact that they have held Arsenal (twice), Manchester City (twice), Manchester United, Chelsea all to draws and beaten Everton and Liverpool over the course of 18 months. They have held Chelsea in each of the last 2 Premier League games here at the Brittania and I do think Rafa Benitez would see it as a good point earned rather than two dropped.

All the value is screaming at the draw and that'll be my choice.


Manchester United v Liverpool Pick: The biggest game in English football comes from Old Trafford this week as Manchester United prepare to welcome Liverpool- these two are the most successful clubs and I don't think I am the only United fan that still considers this fixture the most important. Regardless of where Liverpool finish in the League, it remains the first fixture I look for in June when the new season games are released.

The game on the field should be a very interesting one and it is one that I feel Manchester United can go ahead and win as they have dominated the game in recent seasons, particularly at Old Trafford.

I do believe that Liverpool will cause problems for United, particularly for a defence that just hasn't looked right for much of the season, but I also think there are plenty of match winners in the United squad too, no less than Robin Van Persie.

Even in the absence of Wayne Rooney, the Dutchman is fast becoming the main man at Old Trafford and he has the ability to score a goal out of nothing. That could be the difference between the two sides in this one and I think United look a big price to win the game at evens... I was expecting something more along the lines of 1.73 so I'll take United to win this one.


MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur Win and 3 or 4 total goals in match @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Southampton @ 3.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Norwich City @ 2.25 Coral (1 Unit)
Stoke City-Chelsea Draw @ 3.50 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Manchester United @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)


January Update: 3-4, + 0.32 Units (9 Units Staked, + 0.36% Yield)


December Final: 17-24-1, - 0.83 Units (53 Units Staked, - 0.02 % Yield)
November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)

Season 2012/13: + 18.84 Units (203 Units Staked, + 9.28 % Yield)

Tennis Picks (January 11th)

It has been a terrible week for the picks after a really good first week of the season, but that is the way it goes with the tennis season being long and arduous. You have to expect the ups and downs during the course of the season and I was just grateful that Bernard Tomic managed to stop the rot of 6 straight losing picks.

In a few hours, we will also see the draw for the first Grand Slam of the season at the Australian Open and I will look to get out a full preview and breakdown of that tournament by Saturday evening, with Sunday afternoon the time I have set aside for the picks from Day 1 which will begin at Midnight (British time).


Bernard Tomic - 2.5 games v Andreas Seppi: Bernard Tomic came through a test match against Jarkko Nieminen in the last Round and I do think he is in a great position to win this tournament ahead of the Australian Open.

I have been impressed with the more aggressive tennis that Tomic has been playing and he continues serving well, all elements that could make it tough for Andreas Seppi in this one.

Seppi was an impressive winner himself in the Quarter Final, but I think his game isn't quite big enough to trouble Tomic. They also played last week in what was a comfortable win for the young Australian and I think he can record another here to move through to the Final.


David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Gael Monfils: It is funny, but Gael Monfils has a 3-0 head to head record against David Ferrer, with 2 of those wins coming on the clay courts during the French Open and I am sure I am not the only one who is surprised by the success the Frenchman has had against Ferrer.

I would have guessed that Ferrer would be too consistent for Monfils, but I then think Monfils is basically the same player, but less aggressive and thus making less errors. I can't quite put my finger on why Monfils has won all 3 meetings, but I do think Ferrer can get off the mark in this one.

Monfils is still on the road to recovery from injury and he has had a couple of tough matches already this week. I think Ferrer can put some more mental pressure on Monfils and will eventually crack him and I think a 6-4, 6-3 could be on the cards.


Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: Agnieszka Radwanska will have a lot of momentum behind her as she gets set to begin her first Grand Slam tournament of the season and she does have a chance to win back to back tournaments to open 2013.

Radwanska will face Dominika Cibulkova, a player she has beaten in all 3 previous meetings. I respect what Cibulkova has done already this week as she has thumped Petra Kvitova, Sara Errani and Angelique Kerber all while being set as the underdog.

However, she has barely made a dent on Radwanska in previous meetings and I think the World Number 4 will be too consistent for her and eventually that will tell on the scoreboard in a 6-4, 6-2 win.


MY PICKS: Bernard Tomic - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 1-6, - 9.3 Units (13 Units Staked, - 71.5% Yield)

Tennis Picks (January 10th)

Yesterday couldn't really have gone any worse... Two of the picks were just tragic from start to finish, while the other two should have really come in, but it all adds up to a disappointment.

With the Australian Open fast approaching, most of the tournaments are already getting down to final run, allowing any player who goes deep in this one to have enough in the tank to start their Grand Slam run. As expected, most of the big names have given this week a miss.

Bernard Tomic - 3.5 games v Jarkko Nieminen: Bernard Tomic is off an impressive win against Florian Mayer and I think he is going to be too good for Jarkko Nieminen in this Quarter Final.

Tomic has played some solid tennis and I think he can put some real pressure on Nieminen if the Australian continues serving in the manner he has.

I know Nieminen has the experience in this match, but his second serve has always been a bit of a liability and playing catch up against Tomic could lead to pressure which ultimately costs him in this one.

Sam Querrey - 3.5 games v Jesse Levine: While 2012 was year of transition for Sam Querrey as he recovered from injuries, the big serving American has opened 2013 with his first win of the season and I think he will be too strong for his compatriot in this one.

Jesse Levine has actually started to represent Canada these days, and he is clearly in good form having come through qualifiers and a couple of matches in the main draw to reach this Quarter Final. However, his game will hold no mystery for Querrey who has won the last 2 meetings between the players.

I can see Levine making one of the sets a little difficult, but Querrey should ultimately be too strong behind serve and see him off 6-3, 7-6.

Na Li - 1.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: My biggest concern in this match is the fact that Na Li has played a lot of tennis the last ten days after winning a tournament last week and that may take it's toll on her here.

However, it is hard to ignore the fact that she has dominated Agnieszka Radwanska in each of the last 3 matches they have played, all on hard courts. Li has been so good that she has won the last 6 sets and she has lost just 11 games in that time.

Li has the power and consistency to hit through Radwanska, although it will be interesting to see how she has recovered from a long Quarter Final with Madison Keys. If Li is good to go, she can beat Radwanska again in this one.

MY PICKS: Bernard Tomic - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Sam Querrey - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Na Li - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 0-4, - 7 Units (7 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Tennis Picks (January 9th)

I have had a few days off from the early season picks as there just wasn't much I liked in the last three days so there wasn't any real desire to get involved with the Australian Open fast approaching.

That is not the case on this day when I do like a few matches and these are my picks from Sydney and Auckland.


Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games v Denis Istomin: This is a bit of a risky pick as Fernando Verdasco hasn't been in great form in the Hopman Cup last week and the Spaniard is now coming up to a 4 year anniversary since his break out performance at the Australian Open.

Verdasco hasn't reached those same heights after 2009, but I think he still has enough in his game to knock off Denis Istomin, a player that can be very tough on his day but also mentally fragile.

Istomin did win their last meeting at Queens in London on a grass court, but Verdasco had won 3 in a row before that. I just think Verdasco will have enough big shots to see off Istomin in this one, although it might be close up until the end in a 6-4, 7-6 win for the Spaniard.


Florian Mayer v Bernard Tomic: I might be in the minority, but I do feel that Bernard Tomic has been a bit of a disappointment over the last couple of seasons and I think Florian Mayer will cause him a lot of problems in this match.

Mayer is a 'grimy' tennis player that will use a lot of spin and variation in his game and it is clearly something that has bothered Tomic in the past.

The young Australian has lost all 3 previous meetings against Mayer, losing all 7 sets they have competed and that includes a couple of defeats last season. Mayer has been set as the underdog in this one and I am going to have a small interest that he wins for the fourth time in a row against Tomic in this one.


Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 games v Alejandro Falla: Philipp Kohlschreiber received a bye in the First Round in Auckland, but I think he will be too strong for Alejandro Falla as long as he isn't suffering from too much jet lag.

I would suggest Kohlschreiber has adjusted to the time having been beaten early in Doha last week and he will be confident in this one having beaten Falla in all 4 previous meetings in the professional ranks.

The German beat Falla in straight sets at the Australian Open last season meaning he has won 6 consecutive sets and all but one of those sets has come with a 6-3 or better ending.

Falla can cause problems on his day, but it clearly seems Kohlschreiber is content with what the Colombian brings to the table and I would expect a break in each set being the difference between the players.


Na Li - 4.5 games v Madison Keys: Na Li is building some real momentum ahead of the first Grand Slam of the season and she has followed her win in Shenzhen by reaching the Quarter Final here in Sydney.

Li has barely been tested so far and I think she is going to too experienced for the young American Madison Keys.

It has been a productive week so far for Keys as she came through qualifying and she has won a couple of big matches against Lucie Safarova and Jie Zheng, but Li is a lot more consistent than anyone Keys has faced this week.

Sometimes these qualifiers can get a lot of momentum behind them, but I think Li will be too strong and a 6-3, 6-4 win is on the cards for the World Number 6.


MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 2.02 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Florian Mayer @ 2.33 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Na Li - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Season 2013: 10-5, + 9.23 Units (27 Units Staked, + 34.2% Yield)

NFL Play Off Picks Wild Card Round 2012

I have had a busy week with work once again back in full flow, but I had decided I would only make my picks from the Wild Card Round this week.

I have an idea over which teams I think will be competing in the Conference Championship Games in two weeks time, but the NFL season has been more than surprising that I wouldn't be shocked if I was wrong.

Just for arguments sake, I believe we will see Denver taking on New England in the AFC and Atlanta taking on Green Bay in the NFC, but I am a lot more confident in my AFC projections than I am with the NFC ones.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans Pick: It seems the trendy pick this week is the Cincinnati Bengals knocking off the Houston Texans, but I like the home team in this one with home field being the real difference between the teams.

Both teams have powerful Defenses and I think it will be that side of the ball that dominates- both also have one very strong Wide Receiver that could have a big game.

I also think there is a slight question mark on both Quarter Backs in this game so you can see why I like the Defenses in the contest.

Houston and Cincinnati are both amongst the leading teams in amount of sacks generated this season with the Bengals number 1 in that category. However, I think what will stand out at the end of this game is Arian Foster and the Houston Texan rushing game, although it has been faltering in recent weeks.

I trust Foster more than the Bengals Backs and I think he will be able to find enough success to allow Matt Schaub to make his favourite play-action play to Andre Johnson and that should lead Houston to a win in this game.

I remain unconvinced about Cincinnati and it has to be said that Houston have won 4 games in a row in the series, including consecutive blow outs at home. The Texans have also covered the spread in the last 5 in this series between these two teams.

A couple of trends also favour the Houston Texans in this one- first, teams coming off a straight up loss as a favourite are 10-3 against the spread at home in the Wild Card Round.

Second, Wild Card road teams are just 20-40-1 against the spread if they played a Divisional rival in their last game, while that becomes 9-25 against the spread if they are given more than 3 points.


Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Everyone and their mother should know what Minnesota are going to do in this game, although I still think Adrian Peterson will have another big game for them against the Green Bay Packers in the third meeting of the season between these Divisional rivals.

I expect Peterson will have another big game in this one, although Minnesota are facing a tough task having to take on the Packers outdoors this time. While Christian Ponder played pretty well last week, I have little faith that the Quarter Back will be able to make the same throws this week in what could be conditions involving freezing rain.

The Packers are also getting healthier on the Defense and they did make a couple of key mistakes on that side of the ball that cost them the game in Minnesota last week- these are the kind of mistakes that Dom Capers will make sure his unit rectify this week and I think Ponder will be under pressure.

On the other hand, Aaron Rodgers should have yet another big game against the Vikings Secondary, while the return of Randall Cobb will enable him to get the ball out a little quicker and perhaps negate the pass rush Minnesota have, one that will get through this porous Offensive Line.

Green Bay have also found a running game and that balance should mean Rodgers has time to make the big plays downfield. With all his weapons, I do expect Green Bay to put up enough points and put the Vikings away this week.

The Pack have won 3 straight against Minnesota at home and covered the spread in each of those game.

The trends that favour Houston also apply to Green Bay this week- there is one further trend that goes against Minnesota and that is teams off a straight up win as an underdog are 13-20-1 against the spread in their Wild Card game.


Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: There are a lot of emotions involved in this game as the Baltimore crowd have never, and probably never will, forgiven the way the Indianapolis Colts came into being, while the stories surrounding Chuck Pegano and Ray Lewis have also been well established.

Pegano was the former Defensive Co-Ordinator of the Baltimore Ravens before taking the Head Coach role in Indianapolis, while Jim Caldwell will be calling the Offensive plays for Baltimore having been the Head Coach of the Colts last season.

That should prove a lot of emotion in the Stadium throughout this game, but I am like the Baltimore Ravens to find a way to cover the spread which is stuck at 7 points and has been for much of the week.

Andrew Luck should have some success, while the Baltimore Defense is just not as intimidating as they used to be. Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed are all getting old and Luck will make some plays with Reggie Wayne proving his ageless quality.

However, I think the key man in this Play Off game will be Ray Rice and I think the Running Back will be able to take advantage of this Indianapolis Defense that has struggled against the run. That will open up the field for Joe Flacco who has had some big Play Off games in the past and I think he will have a lot of success in this one. The Indianapolis Defense isn't really very good and being on the road, outdoors, looks a big ask for them.

A couple of the big trends I mentioned in the Green Bay and Houston games also apply to Baltimore in this one. Another is that teams coming off games where they have covered the spread by 12 points or more, as Indianapolis did against Houston in Week 17, are just 5-15-1 against the spread in the Wild Card Round when they are sent on the road.


Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins Pick: These two teams are very closely matches in my opinion and it has made picking a winner very, very difficult.

Both Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson are rookie Quarter Backs for these teams and both have been very good this season in leading their teams.

The read option has made it tough for opposition Defenses to focus on, but both are going to be very familiar with that and I think the Defenses will step up in this one.

I think the real difference is that Seattle have the better Secondary and I think that will end up being the difference in this game. I believe Washington have the better receivers, but Seattle will happily leave Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner in one on one coverage on the outside and they should be able to commit more defenders to stop the option.

Griffin is also a little beat up at the moment and I think Wilson will win the battle of the Quarter Backs in this one.

Washington have won 3 in a row at home against Seattle and also won the last 2 in the series at the Seahawks, while the fact that Seattle is on the road is a concern as they are certainly not as good on their travels.

However, I think Seattle will do enough to win this game and I am going to back yet another favourite to win here.


MY PICKS: Houston Texans - 4 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (4 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 7 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 3 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)