Aside from the Davis Cup, this is the last tennis match of the season of real importance as only Challenger Events will be taking place this week.
It seems fitting that the top two Men's players in the World will end the season playing for the ATP World Tour Finals Trophy.
Both Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer played some very good tennis yesterday in the Semi Finals and it does look like a fascinating match on Monday night.
Roger Federer v Novak Djokovic: I'll admit it- I thought Roger Federer was there for the taking on Sunday evening when he played Andy Murray, but I was wrong as he looked very good for the most part and outplayed Murray after recovering from an early break of serve.
I still believe that Federer fancies his chances against Novak Djokovic more than any other player in the top 4 and I think it remains the case that Federer is the best indoor player in the World.
Djokovic does show plenty of character in his matches and he back to doing the same on Sunday as he came from a set and a break down against Juan Martin Del Potro before moving through the gears to win that match.
However, I can't help feeling that Djokovic was there for the taking yesterday and I think Federer will feel good about his chances having won the last 2 matches against Djokovic.
Federer is also 3-1 against Djokovic on an indoor hard court, including a straight sets win here in London two seasons ago in the Semi Final on that occasion.
This might be close, but the odds on Federer look to be a joke and I'll back him to win this tournament for the third straight year in a row.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 9-5, + 8.74 Units (25 Units Staked)
Monday, 12 November 2012
Sunday, 11 November 2012
ATP World Tour Finals Semi Final Picks (November 11th)
Remembering all those who gave their lives for the benefit of freedom (11/11 11am)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: This should be a fascinating first Semi Final, but I think Novak Djokovic is playing a little too solid at the moment to be beaten by Juan Martin Del Potro, especially considering the Serb has won the last 5 sets they have competed since the Olympic Games.
The courts here are playing just slow enough to think Djokovic will get enough returns in play and I think he is a little more solid on both wings than the big man and I expect him to win more of the extended rallies.
Del Potro certainly has the ability to take a racquet out of an opponents hands, but the lack of rest since beating Roger Federer in 3 sets means there is more in favour of Djokovic in this one.
The Serb would have covered this spread in the last 2 matches between the players and I'll look for him to make Monday's Final in impressive style, possibly coming through 6-2, 6-4.
Andy Murray - 1.5 games v Roger Federer: Anyone who followed the outright selection earlier in the week may want to hold off on this one as they already have Andy Murray to win the tournament, but I think the layers are over-estimating Roger Federer in the match.
Murray has won the last 5 sets they have competed including that absolute hammering at the Olympic Games and he is playing much better tennis at the moment in my opinion.
To be perfectly honest, Federer has looked a little flat this week and very ratty- he destroyed Janko Tipsarevic who was playing far below his best, but struggled against David Ferrer and was beaten by Juan Martin Del Potro and I have an inkling that the last 12 months of full tennis has caught up with him and he could do with a break.
Federer has put a lot in to the game in that time to make sure he recovered the Number 1 Ranking in the World and the amount of tennis he has played is tough for a 31 year old, especially with the level of competition and the fact he has reached the latter stages in most events in that time.
I just feel he is ready to recharge the batteries and Murray will be able to put enough pressure on his serve to get through to the Final and possibly a repeat of his second match at this tournament against Novak Djokovic.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 8-4, + 8.40 Units (21 Units Staked)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: This should be a fascinating first Semi Final, but I think Novak Djokovic is playing a little too solid at the moment to be beaten by Juan Martin Del Potro, especially considering the Serb has won the last 5 sets they have competed since the Olympic Games.
The courts here are playing just slow enough to think Djokovic will get enough returns in play and I think he is a little more solid on both wings than the big man and I expect him to win more of the extended rallies.
Del Potro certainly has the ability to take a racquet out of an opponents hands, but the lack of rest since beating Roger Federer in 3 sets means there is more in favour of Djokovic in this one.
The Serb would have covered this spread in the last 2 matches between the players and I'll look for him to make Monday's Final in impressive style, possibly coming through 6-2, 6-4.
Andy Murray - 1.5 games v Roger Federer: Anyone who followed the outright selection earlier in the week may want to hold off on this one as they already have Andy Murray to win the tournament, but I think the layers are over-estimating Roger Federer in the match.
Murray has won the last 5 sets they have competed including that absolute hammering at the Olympic Games and he is playing much better tennis at the moment in my opinion.
To be perfectly honest, Federer has looked a little flat this week and very ratty- he destroyed Janko Tipsarevic who was playing far below his best, but struggled against David Ferrer and was beaten by Juan Martin Del Potro and I have an inkling that the last 12 months of full tennis has caught up with him and he could do with a break.
Federer has put a lot in to the game in that time to make sure he recovered the Number 1 Ranking in the World and the amount of tennis he has played is tough for a 31 year old, especially with the level of competition and the fact he has reached the latter stages in most events in that time.
I just feel he is ready to recharge the batteries and Murray will be able to put enough pressure on his serve to get through to the Final and possibly a repeat of his second match at this tournament against Novak Djokovic.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 8-4, + 8.40 Units (21 Units Staked)
Saturday, 10 November 2012
College Football Week 11 Picks 2012
I seriously cannot understand why I am beginning to second guess myself... Hold that thought, I can understand as I have sucked at picking the College Football games this season, but I honestly feel I left so much on the table last week and was mad at myself.
Anyway, I've given up hoping things will turn around as it has just been one of those seasons, but here are the picks I am playing today:
Iowa State Cyclones @ Texas Longhorns Pick: I am taking the Longhorns to put a small smile on their supporters faces after a disappointing season for the most part. I like them to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Texas are on a bye after this game so I fully expect them to be motivated and focused on winning this one.
Second, the Longhorns have dominated the recent series going 8-1 at home against Iowa State and they will also want revenge having lost the last time they played here.
Third, I think there is a chance that the Cyclones are looking ahead to the game with Kansas next on the schedule as the one they can win and book their place as being Bowl eligible.
Wisconsin Badgers @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: This won't be easy for Wisconsin, but I think they can do enough to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Badgers have dominated the recent series, going 5-1 against the spread. They have also won 3 in a row in Indiana, covering the spread twice.
Second, motivation is still extremely high as they will be in the Big Ten Championship Game if they can win this game as both Ohio State and Penn State are ineligible as the two teams above them.
Third, Indiana have been playing a lot of teams tough in the last few weeks and I just think that could catch up with them if Montee Ball gets rolling for the Badgers.
Missouri Tigers @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: I am going to back the Tennessee Volunteers to win their first SEC game of the season and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, home field advantage should be critical when two evenly matched teams contest this game and that goes to the Vols in this one.
Second, Missouri put in a big effort to play Florida incredibly tough last week in the Swamp and that could take its toll against a Tennessee side that played a non-Conference opponent.
Third, I just have more faith in the Tennessee Offense to make enough big plays to see them home in this one, while Missouri have underwhelmed for the most part this season when against SEC foes and may be feeling a little physically worn out after last week.
Arizona St Wildcats @ USC Trojans Pick: I am going to back the USC Trojans to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, despite this being a disappointing season, the USC Trojans are still in a position where they can win the PAC-12 South and get into the Championship Game to gain a bit of revenge over the Oregon Ducks.
Second, the Trojans are playing with revenge on their mind in this one following a loss in Arizona State last season and they are the better team.
Third, both teams have been in poor form, but I have much more faith in USC in this one to turn things around and get ready for their huge game against UCLA next week in style.
Texas A&M Aggies @ Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: After their win in Baton Rouge last weekend, I am backing the Crimson Tide to keep rolling in this one against a tough Aggies team. I like Alabama to cover for the following reasons:
First, Texas A&M have been a big surprise this season as Johnny Manziel has come along brilliantly as a Freshman, but this is the toughest test he would have faced having previously come up against Florida and LSU at home.
Second, the Crimson Tide are rolling along nicely and I think they will be able to shut down the Aggies to some extent, while also creating field advantage opportunities.
Third, I just think this road test will be too much for what is a young Aggies team for the most part.
Georgia Bulldogs @ Auburn Tigers Pick: I like the Georgia Bulldogs to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Auburn are just about to fire Gene Chizik as Head Coach and the team have clearly given up on their Coach and season.
Second, Georgia are absolutely focused on this game with a win securing the SEC East and a place in the Championship Game.
Third, Auburn were blown out in their last 2 games at home against SEC rivals and this is arguably the best team to visit since LSU early in the season.
I was hoping to put up my reasons for my last few picks that I had, but it's not going to be possible this week, although you can find my full picks below... On another note, what a heartbreaking loss for Tennessee and likely the end of the Derek Dooley era after 3 poor seasons with little encouragement of the future.
MY PICKS: Texas Longhorns - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers - 7 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
USC Trojans - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 13.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 14.5 Points @ 1.92 Labrokes (1 Unit)
SMU Mustangs - 14 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
UCF Knights - 13.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 19.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Anyway, I've given up hoping things will turn around as it has just been one of those seasons, but here are the picks I am playing today:
Iowa State Cyclones @ Texas Longhorns Pick: I am taking the Longhorns to put a small smile on their supporters faces after a disappointing season for the most part. I like them to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Texas are on a bye after this game so I fully expect them to be motivated and focused on winning this one.
Second, the Longhorns have dominated the recent series going 8-1 at home against Iowa State and they will also want revenge having lost the last time they played here.
Third, I think there is a chance that the Cyclones are looking ahead to the game with Kansas next on the schedule as the one they can win and book their place as being Bowl eligible.
Wisconsin Badgers @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: This won't be easy for Wisconsin, but I think they can do enough to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Badgers have dominated the recent series, going 5-1 against the spread. They have also won 3 in a row in Indiana, covering the spread twice.
Second, motivation is still extremely high as they will be in the Big Ten Championship Game if they can win this game as both Ohio State and Penn State are ineligible as the two teams above them.
Third, Indiana have been playing a lot of teams tough in the last few weeks and I just think that could catch up with them if Montee Ball gets rolling for the Badgers.
Missouri Tigers @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: I am going to back the Tennessee Volunteers to win their first SEC game of the season and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, home field advantage should be critical when two evenly matched teams contest this game and that goes to the Vols in this one.
Second, Missouri put in a big effort to play Florida incredibly tough last week in the Swamp and that could take its toll against a Tennessee side that played a non-Conference opponent.
Third, I just have more faith in the Tennessee Offense to make enough big plays to see them home in this one, while Missouri have underwhelmed for the most part this season when against SEC foes and may be feeling a little physically worn out after last week.
Arizona St Wildcats @ USC Trojans Pick: I am going to back the USC Trojans to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, despite this being a disappointing season, the USC Trojans are still in a position where they can win the PAC-12 South and get into the Championship Game to gain a bit of revenge over the Oregon Ducks.
Second, the Trojans are playing with revenge on their mind in this one following a loss in Arizona State last season and they are the better team.
Third, both teams have been in poor form, but I have much more faith in USC in this one to turn things around and get ready for their huge game against UCLA next week in style.
Texas A&M Aggies @ Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: After their win in Baton Rouge last weekend, I am backing the Crimson Tide to keep rolling in this one against a tough Aggies team. I like Alabama to cover for the following reasons:
First, Texas A&M have been a big surprise this season as Johnny Manziel has come along brilliantly as a Freshman, but this is the toughest test he would have faced having previously come up against Florida and LSU at home.
Second, the Crimson Tide are rolling along nicely and I think they will be able to shut down the Aggies to some extent, while also creating field advantage opportunities.
Third, I just think this road test will be too much for what is a young Aggies team for the most part.
Georgia Bulldogs @ Auburn Tigers Pick: I like the Georgia Bulldogs to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Auburn are just about to fire Gene Chizik as Head Coach and the team have clearly given up on their Coach and season.
Second, Georgia are absolutely focused on this game with a win securing the SEC East and a place in the Championship Game.
Third, Auburn were blown out in their last 2 games at home against SEC rivals and this is arguably the best team to visit since LSU early in the season.
I was hoping to put up my reasons for my last few picks that I had, but it's not going to be possible this week, although you can find my full picks below... On another note, what a heartbreaking loss for Tennessee and likely the end of the Derek Dooley era after 3 poor seasons with little encouragement of the future.
MY PICKS: Texas Longhorns - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers - 7 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
USC Trojans - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 13.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 14.5 Points @ 1.92 Labrokes (1 Unit)
SMU Mustangs - 14 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
UCF Knights - 13.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 19.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Weekend Football Picks (November 10-11)
November has not started off that well after the success of the last three months, but hopefully that won't be the case for the whole month.
These are my picks for the weekend football.
Reading v Norwich City Pick: If it wasn't for Norwich City's struggles to score goals away from home, the over 2.5 goals would be a huge price from this game and I still believe it will come in.
Reading have been scoring and conceding goals for fun at the Majedski Stadium this season and they won't be sitting back in this game as it looks a very winnable one to get off the mark in the Premier League, while they have struggled to hold on to leads so will want to keep scoring goals to ensure the three points are earned.
Reading's defensive struggles are well documented, and Norwich have scored in 3 of their last 4 away games so they should be able to get off the mark, while the Canaries haven't kept an away clean sheet since May 2011.
Southampton v Swansea Pick: This is a simple pick for me as I do think Southampton have been playing well enough at home to pick up the three points here, but I think it is worth backing them to win with at least 3 goals scored in the match.
Southampton can't defend effectively and it would be a real surprise to me if they keep a clean sheet against Swansea who have shown they can create chances.
However, the Swans have a number of defensive problems with injuries taking their toll and Southampton are certainly a side that look dangerous going forward and will be able to create chances themselves.
At 4.00 being offered, goals and a home win look like they go hand in hand and I can't imagine the latter happening without the former so looks the best way to attack this game.
Aston Villa v Manchester United Pick: You have to like Manchester United's chances of extending their winning run in the Premier League at Villa Park on Saturday afternoon, particularly with the form that Robin Van Persie and Javier Hernandez have shown in front of goal in recent games.
However, United will need all the goals they can get as they have still looked a little suspect defensively and I have little doubt that Aston Villa can cause problems with Christian Bentenke looking like a bit of a handful.
It was tough to find an angle for this game but seeing a market for both teams to score and United to win looks the best way to get on, especially at 3.00, considering it would have been a winner in 8 of United's last 9 wins.
Newcastle United v West Ham United Pick: Newcastle United are definitely a stronger side in front of their own supporters as shown by 4 wins in their last 5 games in all competitions and I still believe West Ham United are going to struggle on their travels and build their foundation of their survival of their season at Upton Park.
The Hammers haven't really been tested on their travels in terms of strength of teams they have played, but they have already been beaten at Swansea and Wigan Athletic and I would suggest that Newcastle have a stronger home advantage than those two sides.
Newcastle do have a couple of injury concerns and suspensions in defensive areas, but they have a front three that can cause problems for any team and I expect them to be on the front foot for much of this game.
I imagine Newcastle are going to finish in the top 7 this season and I don't think many, if any at all, of those sides will be odds against to beat West Ham this season so this price has to be taken.
Chelsea v Liverpool Pick: This is a very simple pick for me- I think Chelsea are going to win the game and snap their recent poor run against Liverpool, but I wouldn't be surprised if their defensive vulnerabilities are exposed again and they concede for the fifth straight time at home in all competitions.
Chelsea look like they have enough attacking power to score goals, but they have struggled to find the right balance and we have seen Manchester United and Shakhtar Donetsk come here and expose those issues. Norwich City also scored here so I do expect Liverpool will find their way on to the scoreboard.
However, I think there is enough talent in the home ranks to get through this tricky test and I'll have a small interest in them doing so with both teams scoring at least once.
MY PICKS: Reading-Norwich City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Southampton Win and at least 3 Goals Scored (Quatro) @ 4.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester United Win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Newcastle United @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Chelsea Win @ 3.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
November Update: 2-5, - 1.60 Units (10 Units Staked, - 16% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
These are my picks for the weekend football.
Reading v Norwich City Pick: If it wasn't for Norwich City's struggles to score goals away from home, the over 2.5 goals would be a huge price from this game and I still believe it will come in.
Reading have been scoring and conceding goals for fun at the Majedski Stadium this season and they won't be sitting back in this game as it looks a very winnable one to get off the mark in the Premier League, while they have struggled to hold on to leads so will want to keep scoring goals to ensure the three points are earned.
Reading's defensive struggles are well documented, and Norwich have scored in 3 of their last 4 away games so they should be able to get off the mark, while the Canaries haven't kept an away clean sheet since May 2011.
Southampton v Swansea Pick: This is a simple pick for me as I do think Southampton have been playing well enough at home to pick up the three points here, but I think it is worth backing them to win with at least 3 goals scored in the match.
Southampton can't defend effectively and it would be a real surprise to me if they keep a clean sheet against Swansea who have shown they can create chances.
However, the Swans have a number of defensive problems with injuries taking their toll and Southampton are certainly a side that look dangerous going forward and will be able to create chances themselves.
At 4.00 being offered, goals and a home win look like they go hand in hand and I can't imagine the latter happening without the former so looks the best way to attack this game.
Aston Villa v Manchester United Pick: You have to like Manchester United's chances of extending their winning run in the Premier League at Villa Park on Saturday afternoon, particularly with the form that Robin Van Persie and Javier Hernandez have shown in front of goal in recent games.
However, United will need all the goals they can get as they have still looked a little suspect defensively and I have little doubt that Aston Villa can cause problems with Christian Bentenke looking like a bit of a handful.
It was tough to find an angle for this game but seeing a market for both teams to score and United to win looks the best way to get on, especially at 3.00, considering it would have been a winner in 8 of United's last 9 wins.
Newcastle United v West Ham United Pick: Newcastle United are definitely a stronger side in front of their own supporters as shown by 4 wins in their last 5 games in all competitions and I still believe West Ham United are going to struggle on their travels and build their foundation of their survival of their season at Upton Park.
The Hammers haven't really been tested on their travels in terms of strength of teams they have played, but they have already been beaten at Swansea and Wigan Athletic and I would suggest that Newcastle have a stronger home advantage than those two sides.
Newcastle do have a couple of injury concerns and suspensions in defensive areas, but they have a front three that can cause problems for any team and I expect them to be on the front foot for much of this game.
I imagine Newcastle are going to finish in the top 7 this season and I don't think many, if any at all, of those sides will be odds against to beat West Ham this season so this price has to be taken.
Chelsea v Liverpool Pick: This is a very simple pick for me- I think Chelsea are going to win the game and snap their recent poor run against Liverpool, but I wouldn't be surprised if their defensive vulnerabilities are exposed again and they concede for the fifth straight time at home in all competitions.
Chelsea look like they have enough attacking power to score goals, but they have struggled to find the right balance and we have seen Manchester United and Shakhtar Donetsk come here and expose those issues. Norwich City also scored here so I do expect Liverpool will find their way on to the scoreboard.
However, I think there is enough talent in the home ranks to get through this tricky test and I'll have a small interest in them doing so with both teams scoring at least once.
MY PICKS: Reading-Norwich City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Southampton Win and at least 3 Goals Scored (Quatro) @ 4.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester United Win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Newcastle United @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Chelsea Win @ 3.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
November Update: 2-5, - 1.60 Units (10 Units Staked, - 16% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
ATP World Tour Finals Day 6 Picks (November 10th)
I do understand the need of the television companies to tell us how 'good' this round robin stage of the tournament is, but they must thing the fans are complete and utter morons with that drivel... Let's face facts for a minute- my memory isn't what it was, but how long ago was it that the round robin was trialed in the smaller ATP tournaments and quickly removed.
The bottom line is that players can effectively tank matches at certain stages and we did elements of that in both matches last night. Don't get me wrong, both favourites won easily enough, but there is no doubt that both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray had reduced energy levels in the second set of their matches one qualification to the Semi Finals was assured.
In a regular tournament, you can't decide to coast through matches if you are to get through and win a tournament so the round robin is a bit of a nonentity.
For this tournament, I accept this is the best way of using the top 8 players, but it isn't a good method that needs to be used ever again on the main tour outside of this World Tour Finals.
Juan Martin Del Potro v Roger Federer: After Roger Federer beat David Ferrer in straight sets and Juan Martin Del Potro did the same against David Ferrer, it meant the World Number 2 had booked his Semi Final place and now it is a matter of whether he would prefer playing Novak Djokovic or Andy Murray.
Federer does have a chance of 'picking' his opponent as a defeat to Juan Martin Del Potro will mean Federer finishes second in the Group, while a win sees him knock out the Argentine if David Ferrer beats Janko Tipsarevic.
It might not be in Federer's hands anyway as Del Potro has certainly got closer and closer to beating him all season before eventually cracking that in Basle last month.
Del Potro should have beaten Federer at both the French Open and the London Olympics also and I think his motivation is much higher than Federer's in this particular match, even if the World Number 2 would likely want to see the Argentine out of the tournament as he is a major threat.
However, it may also work for Federer who certainly feels he has the beating of Djokovic, perhaps even more than Murray, and would be rewarded with a Semi Final against the World Number 1 if he fails to win this match. With all this added intrigue in mind, backing the Argenitne at big odds looks the call.
David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Janko Tipsarevic: This could be a meaningless match if Juan Martin Del Potro has beaten Roger Federer earlier in the day, but David Ferrer will still want to maintain some form ahead of the Davis Cup Final next weekend against the Czech Republic.
Janko Tipsarevic has just been happy to get through an hour on court in each match he has played and he has looked far short of his best form as an illness and a long season has taken its toll on the Serb.
Ferrer has had the better of the matches they have played and I just think he will be a little too strong here and will likely get through with a 6-4, 6-2 win, although I am only having a small interest as it is potentially a meaningless match.
MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro @ 3.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
David Ferrer - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 6-4, + 5.30 Units (19 Units Staked)
The bottom line is that players can effectively tank matches at certain stages and we did elements of that in both matches last night. Don't get me wrong, both favourites won easily enough, but there is no doubt that both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray had reduced energy levels in the second set of their matches one qualification to the Semi Finals was assured.
In a regular tournament, you can't decide to coast through matches if you are to get through and win a tournament so the round robin is a bit of a nonentity.
For this tournament, I accept this is the best way of using the top 8 players, but it isn't a good method that needs to be used ever again on the main tour outside of this World Tour Finals.
Juan Martin Del Potro v Roger Federer: After Roger Federer beat David Ferrer in straight sets and Juan Martin Del Potro did the same against David Ferrer, it meant the World Number 2 had booked his Semi Final place and now it is a matter of whether he would prefer playing Novak Djokovic or Andy Murray.
Federer does have a chance of 'picking' his opponent as a defeat to Juan Martin Del Potro will mean Federer finishes second in the Group, while a win sees him knock out the Argentine if David Ferrer beats Janko Tipsarevic.
It might not be in Federer's hands anyway as Del Potro has certainly got closer and closer to beating him all season before eventually cracking that in Basle last month.
Del Potro should have beaten Federer at both the French Open and the London Olympics also and I think his motivation is much higher than Federer's in this particular match, even if the World Number 2 would likely want to see the Argentine out of the tournament as he is a major threat.
However, it may also work for Federer who certainly feels he has the beating of Djokovic, perhaps even more than Murray, and would be rewarded with a Semi Final against the World Number 1 if he fails to win this match. With all this added intrigue in mind, backing the Argenitne at big odds looks the call.
David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Janko Tipsarevic: This could be a meaningless match if Juan Martin Del Potro has beaten Roger Federer earlier in the day, but David Ferrer will still want to maintain some form ahead of the Davis Cup Final next weekend against the Czech Republic.
Janko Tipsarevic has just been happy to get through an hour on court in each match he has played and he has looked far short of his best form as an illness and a long season has taken its toll on the Serb.
Ferrer has had the better of the matches they have played and I just think he will be a little too strong here and will likely get through with a 6-4, 6-2 win, although I am only having a small interest as it is potentially a meaningless match.
MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro @ 3.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
David Ferrer - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 6-4, + 5.30 Units (19 Units Staked)
Friday, 9 November 2012
ATP World Tour Finals Day 5 Picks (November 9th)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Tomas Berdych: The final round robin matches at this tournament can be hard to read as motivations of the players can be questioned, but this is not one of those matches as neither player is through to the Semi Final just yet.
I wondered about Novak Djokovic's mentality for this tournament as he has much bigger concerns with his father's health being the foremost thing in his mind, but it clear that he is very much here to win the tournament with the way he played against Andy Murray in the second game in the Group.
That means Djokovic is the only player with 2 wins to his name, but there are some crazy permutations that could potentially see him knocked out of the tournament, although it would take a straight sets defeat to put him in trouble.
Berdych has played a couple of solid games in the tournament, but Djokovic does have his number more than most players with a 10-1 record against the big serving Czech, and 6 of those wins have come since the beginning of 2011.
If anyone saw the Berdych match with Andy Murray, they would have noticed that he did offer the British Number 1 a few chances to break serve and I think the slower conditions here will favour Djokovic to create some chances in the match too. However, he looks capable of taking those chances and I'll back him to win this with maybe a 6-4, 6-3 scoreline.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 games v Andy Murray: Talking about motivation, it is hard to guess what the motivation of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will be now that he is very close to going out of the tournament, although he would have a sneaky chance of getting through if Berdych loses the earlier match and if Tsonga can beat Andy Murray handily.
Even without massive incentive, Tsonga is an entertainer and he will be happy to see an opportunity to perform against the home player here and the lack of pressure on his shoulders may make him a very dangerous opponent for Murray in this match.
They have played some really close matches in the past, but also some easy wins for Andy Murray so I'll only have a small interest in this one. Personally, I believe that Tsonga can at least push one set very close and he would be in a very strong position if he can sneak a set.
Murray can still sometimes lose serve at inopportune times and he will have a lot more pressure on his back in this one, pressure that may see him come through a tight, tough encounter.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 5-3, + 4.10 Units (16 Units Staked)
I wondered about Novak Djokovic's mentality for this tournament as he has much bigger concerns with his father's health being the foremost thing in his mind, but it clear that he is very much here to win the tournament with the way he played against Andy Murray in the second game in the Group.
That means Djokovic is the only player with 2 wins to his name, but there are some crazy permutations that could potentially see him knocked out of the tournament, although it would take a straight sets defeat to put him in trouble.
Berdych has played a couple of solid games in the tournament, but Djokovic does have his number more than most players with a 10-1 record against the big serving Czech, and 6 of those wins have come since the beginning of 2011.
If anyone saw the Berdych match with Andy Murray, they would have noticed that he did offer the British Number 1 a few chances to break serve and I think the slower conditions here will favour Djokovic to create some chances in the match too. However, he looks capable of taking those chances and I'll back him to win this with maybe a 6-4, 6-3 scoreline.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 games v Andy Murray: Talking about motivation, it is hard to guess what the motivation of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will be now that he is very close to going out of the tournament, although he would have a sneaky chance of getting through if Berdych loses the earlier match and if Tsonga can beat Andy Murray handily.
Even without massive incentive, Tsonga is an entertainer and he will be happy to see an opportunity to perform against the home player here and the lack of pressure on his shoulders may make him a very dangerous opponent for Murray in this match.
They have played some really close matches in the past, but also some easy wins for Andy Murray so I'll only have a small interest in this one. Personally, I believe that Tsonga can at least push one set very close and he would be in a very strong position if he can sneak a set.
Murray can still sometimes lose serve at inopportune times and he will have a lot more pressure on his back in this one, pressure that may see him come through a tight, tough encounter.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
ATP World Tour Finals Update: 5-3, + 4.10 Units (16 Units Staked)
Thursday, 8 November 2012
NFL Week 10 Picks
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: I am going to have a small interest in the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover the spread in the Thursday night game for the following reasons:
First, I know there is a lot of hype, rightly for the most part, around Andrew Luck, but his touchdown-interception ratio is 2:6 on the road compared with 8:2 at home.
Second, are the Indianapolis Colts really playing that well to be favoured by more than a field goal on the road? They are facing a different pressure having won the last two games as the underdog.
Third, I know the Jaguars stunk for most of the game against the Lions last weekend, but I would not all be surprised if a team with one win was looking ahead to a Divisional game at home where they can put a dent in the Colts Play Off chances.
Fourth, the Jags beat the Colts on the road earlier this season meaning they have improved to 4-1 in the last 5 games in the series.
Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: I am going to back to Oakland Raiders to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, this is a horrible spot for the Ravens as they are between Divisional contests and could easily be looking ahead to the huge game with Pittsburgh next week.
Second, the Ravens are only 3-4 against the spread as the home favourite against non-Divisional teams and added to the poor spot, it makes the Oakland team more appealing.
Third, the Raiders are 8-4 against the spread as the road underdog since the beginning of last season.
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers Pick: This was going to be a no-pick game for me, but I have changed my mind and will have a small interest on Denver Broncos covering the spread:
First, John Fox was fired by the Panthers before last season- I have absolute faith that he is going to get his team fired up to win this one for him despite it being a non-Conference game and San Diego next on slate.
Second, the Broncos are on a bit of a roll at the moment, covering in 4 of their last 5 games, and Carolina have struggled at home for the most part.
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins Pick: I am backing the Tennessee Titans to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, Miami are an awful home favourite, going 9-32 against the spread in that spot over the last ten years.
Second, another factor is Miami have a big Divisional game against Buffalo on Thursday nights and teams have struggled as the favourite ahead of that new game on the schedule this season.
Third, Tennessee were blown out last week, but teams generally respond favourably in that situation in their next game.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: I like the Lions to cover in this game and put themselves back in the mix for a Wild Card berth in the NFC for the following reasons:
First, Adrian Peterson will have success for the Vikings, but the absence of Percy Harvin is huge for their Offense and Special Teams and puts Christian Ponder in a tough spot.
Second, the Lions have enjoyed their last 2 visits to Minnesota, winning both and they look a team on the rise.
Third, Detroit have covered the spread in 4 straight games and the Offense is finding their feet, making them too strong for the Vikings to keep up.
Fourth, the Vikings are 1-3-1 against the spread as the home underdog against Divisional rivals.
San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: I am going to take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Tampa Bay have been playing really good football over the last couple of weeks and I think they will want this game 'more' with a gap to Atlanta to make up.
Second, San Diego are in a tough spot as they travel across the country and face Denver on the road in their next game so this could be a 'meaningless' contest for them.
Third, San Diego are 2-5 against the spread as the road underdog over the last couple of seasons.
Fourth, Tampa aren't a great home favourite, but Vincent Jackson should help the Offense know the nuances of the Defense and I think he'll have a big game against his old club.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: I'll back the Eagles to cover as the underdog in this one for the following reasons:
First, these two teams are the biggest fools in the NFL- both spend more time making mistakes and killing themselves than losing to the opposition so home field advantage could be critical for Philadelphia.
Second, the Eagles have won 3 of their last 4 games against Dallas.
Third, the Cowboys are not really a great road favourite to be backing, going 3-8-1 against the spread in that spot over the last few seasons.
Fourth, both teams are in a must win spot, both are playing badly, both are making mistakes, so taking the points looks the best option.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: I hate laying double-digit points, but I am going to back the Pittsburgh Steelers in this game to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Todd Haley factor can't be underplayed in this one... I have heard the Chiefs might be extra focused against their former Head Coach, but I am thinking he won't play a conservative game plan in this one and will ask his Steelers Offense to take deep shots and put up a lot of points on the Chiefs.
Second, the Chiefs just don't take care of the ball and that isn't good news against a Steelers Defense that will be able to limit the impact of the Kansas City Offense.
Third, the Steelers are just on a bit of a roll right now and will not want to lose momentum ahead of the big clash against Baltimore next Sunday night.
Other Picks: Cincinnati Bengals + 4.5 Points; Buffalo Bills + 13.5 Points; New Orleans Saints + 1 Point; New York Jets + 6.5 Points; San Francisco 49ers - 12 Points; Houston Texans + 1 Point
MY PICKS: Jacksonville Jaguars + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet 365 (1 Unit)
Oakland Raiders + 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Tennessee Titans + 6 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Detroit Lions - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles + 2 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 12.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
First, I know there is a lot of hype, rightly for the most part, around Andrew Luck, but his touchdown-interception ratio is 2:6 on the road compared with 8:2 at home.
Second, are the Indianapolis Colts really playing that well to be favoured by more than a field goal on the road? They are facing a different pressure having won the last two games as the underdog.
Third, I know the Jaguars stunk for most of the game against the Lions last weekend, but I would not all be surprised if a team with one win was looking ahead to a Divisional game at home where they can put a dent in the Colts Play Off chances.
Fourth, the Jags beat the Colts on the road earlier this season meaning they have improved to 4-1 in the last 5 games in the series.
Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: I am going to back to Oakland Raiders to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, this is a horrible spot for the Ravens as they are between Divisional contests and could easily be looking ahead to the huge game with Pittsburgh next week.
Second, the Ravens are only 3-4 against the spread as the home favourite against non-Divisional teams and added to the poor spot, it makes the Oakland team more appealing.
Third, the Raiders are 8-4 against the spread as the road underdog since the beginning of last season.
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers Pick: This was going to be a no-pick game for me, but I have changed my mind and will have a small interest on Denver Broncos covering the spread:
First, John Fox was fired by the Panthers before last season- I have absolute faith that he is going to get his team fired up to win this one for him despite it being a non-Conference game and San Diego next on slate.
Second, the Broncos are on a bit of a roll at the moment, covering in 4 of their last 5 games, and Carolina have struggled at home for the most part.
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins Pick: I am backing the Tennessee Titans to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:
First, Miami are an awful home favourite, going 9-32 against the spread in that spot over the last ten years.
Second, another factor is Miami have a big Divisional game against Buffalo on Thursday nights and teams have struggled as the favourite ahead of that new game on the schedule this season.
Third, Tennessee were blown out last week, but teams generally respond favourably in that situation in their next game.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: I like the Lions to cover in this game and put themselves back in the mix for a Wild Card berth in the NFC for the following reasons:
First, Adrian Peterson will have success for the Vikings, but the absence of Percy Harvin is huge for their Offense and Special Teams and puts Christian Ponder in a tough spot.
Second, the Lions have enjoyed their last 2 visits to Minnesota, winning both and they look a team on the rise.
Third, Detroit have covered the spread in 4 straight games and the Offense is finding their feet, making them too strong for the Vikings to keep up.
Fourth, the Vikings are 1-3-1 against the spread as the home underdog against Divisional rivals.
San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: I am going to take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Tampa Bay have been playing really good football over the last couple of weeks and I think they will want this game 'more' with a gap to Atlanta to make up.
Second, San Diego are in a tough spot as they travel across the country and face Denver on the road in their next game so this could be a 'meaningless' contest for them.
Third, San Diego are 2-5 against the spread as the road underdog over the last couple of seasons.
Fourth, Tampa aren't a great home favourite, but Vincent Jackson should help the Offense know the nuances of the Defense and I think he'll have a big game against his old club.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: I'll back the Eagles to cover as the underdog in this one for the following reasons:
First, these two teams are the biggest fools in the NFL- both spend more time making mistakes and killing themselves than losing to the opposition so home field advantage could be critical for Philadelphia.
Second, the Eagles have won 3 of their last 4 games against Dallas.
Third, the Cowboys are not really a great road favourite to be backing, going 3-8-1 against the spread in that spot over the last few seasons.
Fourth, both teams are in a must win spot, both are playing badly, both are making mistakes, so taking the points looks the best option.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: I hate laying double-digit points, but I am going to back the Pittsburgh Steelers in this game to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Todd Haley factor can't be underplayed in this one... I have heard the Chiefs might be extra focused against their former Head Coach, but I am thinking he won't play a conservative game plan in this one and will ask his Steelers Offense to take deep shots and put up a lot of points on the Chiefs.
Second, the Chiefs just don't take care of the ball and that isn't good news against a Steelers Defense that will be able to limit the impact of the Kansas City Offense.
Third, the Steelers are just on a bit of a roll right now and will not want to lose momentum ahead of the big clash against Baltimore next Sunday night.
Other Picks: Cincinnati Bengals + 4.5 Points; Buffalo Bills + 13.5 Points; New Orleans Saints + 1 Point; New York Jets + 6.5 Points; San Francisco 49ers - 12 Points; Houston Texans + 1 Point
MY PICKS: Jacksonville Jaguars + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet 365 (1 Unit)
Oakland Raiders + 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Tennessee Titans + 6 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Detroit Lions - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles + 2 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 12.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
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