The tennis Tour will be moving on to Canada this week, but first we have to complete the tournaments that have been played over the last seven days. Kitzbuhel came to a close on Saturday, but the other six tournaments will have their Finals played on Sunday and so it will still be a busy day, perhaps busier than a usual Sunday.
After a really poor start to this week, things have turned around over the last few days and I am hoping another strong day will help put a third successful week in a row in the books. It is a slow grind turning around the season, but I am happy to take off the negative piece by piece in what has been a tough 2016 so far to follow a poor ending to 2015 which knocked that season down.
Robin Haase + 2.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: This has been an important week for Robin Haase as he looks to prevent a slip outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings, but for now he can concentrate on simply winning another title on the clay. He is a significant underdog against Feliciano Lopez, which has surprised me, and I am happy taking the games with the Dutchman in this one.
It has been a good week for Lopez too who can potentially move back into the top 20 of the World Rankings, although wins over Jan Mertl, Elias Ymer and Dustin Brown is not the most taxing way through to a Final. The clay courts have not really suited Lopez through his career with the way he approaches the game, but Lopez has recorded the most wins in a season on the surface since 2011.
I do think Haase will present the toughest test for Lopez through this week and it can't be ignored that the former has won all three of their previous matches on the clay. Each time Haase has been able to come back from a set down to win the match and he has been serving well enough this week to give Lopez enough issues through this Final.
I have a gut feeling that Haase might actually win the title here, but this could also be an important amount of games for him to be getting in a losing effort. If both players can take a set in this one, Haase can use his big serve to at least keep this very competitive and I will take the games.
Fabio Fognini - 4.5 games v Andrej Martin: This is the first career meeting between Fabio Fognini and Andrej Martin and it might be considered a surprise Final in Umag considering some of the other players in the draw. Fognini is capable of producing really strong form on the clay so his appearance is less of an upset, but Martin has been mainly playing on the Challenger circuit and has some impressive wins under the belt this week.
Perhaps it should not be as much of a surprise as I think it is as Martin did reach the Third Round at the French Open, but some of his losses on the Challenger circuit since then would not have had many rushing him to reach an ATP level Final.
This is going to be a real test for Martin as Fognini looks to be in really good form in Umag. He has looked focused and has been returning well and I think the Italian is going to be a little too good on the day as long as he can maintain his focus.
We can't underestimate how easy it is for Fognini to drop his focus, but I will back the Italian to win his fourth career title and first since 2014 with an impressive 63, 64 victory.
Lauren Davis + 2.5 games v Yanina Wickmayer: Looking at a head to head between players doesn't really give you the full tale of the tape when researching matches. Sometimes a player is performing on a better surface for themselves, while other times the physical effort used in matches also has to be a factor as well as recent form.
Match ups are still important though and it would be foolish to ignore the fact that Lauren Davis has won all three previous matches against Yanina Wickmayer including their two matches in 2016. It has not been a good season for the American overall, but a run to the Final in Washington will have given Davis a chance of getting back into the top 100 of the World Rankings as she moves into what is likely her best time of the season.
Davis doesn't have a lot of points to defend over the next few weeks and she has the game that can extract mistakes from the Wickmayer game. The Belgian does have the power to hammer the Davis serve, although my one issue would be whether she can mentally keep going for the lines as she has been this week.
I can see both players having their opportunities in this one with Wickmayer having the power and Davis the defensive strength which should make it a fascinating match. The mental edge has to be given to Davis considering she has beaten Wickmayer twice already in 2016 and she can make use of the games she is being given after building up some momentum through the week in Washington.
If Wickmayer is firmly on her game, she might be tough to stop, but I will look for the lower Ranked player to keep it tight through to the end even if she doesn't quite have enough to win the title.
MY PICKS: Robin Haase + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Lauren Davis + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 22-15, + 8.08 Units (74 Units Staked, + 10.92% Yield)
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Sunday, 24 July 2016
Saturday, 23 July 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (July 23rd)
I am not able to access a computer on Friday but I wanted to put up my Saturday picks after another solid day of picks.
I don't have the time for a full write up, but I will put up my picks below and add those from Washington and Stanford later as I have all week.
MY PICKS: Julia Goerges + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Robin Haase + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yanina Wickmayer - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 17-12, + 5.42 Units (58 Units Staked, + 9.34% Yield)
I don't have the time for a full write up, but I will put up my picks below and add those from Washington and Stanford later as I have all week.
MY PICKS: Julia Goerges + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Robin Haase + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yanina Wickmayer - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 17-12, + 5.42 Units (58 Units Staked, + 9.34% Yield)
Friday, 22 July 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (July 22nd)
The first couple of days of this week were pretty poor, but there has been some kind of recovery in the last couple of days.
At the time of writing this post, I still have two picks running from Washington and Stanford and if both of those come in I should be very close to getting this week back into the positive.
In the mean time I have started making my picks from the matches to be played on Friday when the Quarter Finals take over in the majority of the tournaments, although Kitzbuhel has already gotten to the Semi Final Round of that event.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: Damir Dzumhur has beaten one Italian already this week, but now he takes on the best player from that nation on the ATP Tour in Fabio Fognini. There will be a revenge element in play for Dzumhur who was beaten in straight sets by Fognini last year in Umag in a Second Round match, although there is more on the line this time around with a Semi Final berth awaiting the winner.
I wasn't sure how Fognini was going to react to losing Rubber 4 in the Davis Cup Quarter Final on Sunday, although it has to be noted he looked the better player for much of that defeat to Federico Delbonis. I think he was struggling physically, but he should be well rested by Friday having needed to win just one match to get to this Quarter Final.
It has been a disappointing season for Fognini on the clay courts and he still has a losing record on the surface going into this match. That is in contrast to Dzumhur who has a winning record even though he has had to come through Qualifiers in a number of big tournaments. However he had lost four in a row on the clay prior to his win here earlier in the week and Dzumhur is not going to overpower Fognini in this one.
There should be some long rallies in this one as both players are capable of producing strong defensive tennis, but I think Fognini is the better player and that should eventually show. Last year he was a fairly comfortable winner, but this year it might be a closer 75, 64 kind of win for the Italian as he gets through to a rare Semi Final in 2016.
Laura Siegemund - 3.5 games v Lara Arruabarrena: It was a withdrawal from Angelique Kerber which allowed Lara Arruabarrena through to the Quarter Final, but she faces another German if she wants to go any further in the draw. Laura Siegemund reached the Semi Final in Bucharest last week and she has had her best results on the clay courts this season which makes her the favourite.
This has already been a career year for Siegemund and she has played some solid tennis to get through to the Quarter Final. Both of her wins have come in straight sets and I think Siegemund has the kind of game that will give Arruabarrena a lot to deal with.
The last seven losses Arruabarrena has had on the clay courts has seen her fail to get within this number and someone like Siegemund can get the better of her here. The Spaniard did reach the Semi Final in Bastad last season which would suggest she is comfortable in the conditions at this tournament, but Arruabarrena is not in really strong form at the moment.
Missing a match might keep her physically ready for this match, but it isn't enough against someone who will be battle hardened and I expect Siegemund to come through 64, 64.
Johanna Larsson - 1.5 games v Annika Beck: This has been a tournament that Johanna Larsson has loved playing at throughout her career with three Final appearances here. The defending Champion plays well in front of her own supporters and I think she can get the better of Annika Beck in what could be a very competitive Quarter Final.
I have to respect what Beck will bring to the table which can cause Larsson some problems. We saw Sara Sorribes Tormo give Larsson a hard time by making a few more balls back in play and Beck will be looking to do that throughout this match and try and break down the home favourite mentally as well as physically.
One difference between the players is that Larsson has a much bigger serve than her opponent and I expect her to get a few more free points in this one. Larsson broke the Sorribes Tormo serve every time on Thursday and she will have a chance to play first strike tennis against the Beck serve in this Quarter Final with much of the match on her racquet.
Larsson has been a dominant force in her home tournament over the seasons and she doesn't drop a lot of sets here in winning efforts. I expect her to win this match and so I will back her to cover this number in a three set win.
Samantha Stosur - 5.5 games v Jessica Pegula: There was an element of fortune about Samantha Stosur's Second Round win over Caroline Wozniacki as the latter had to retire with an injury while leading by a set. Now it is up to the Australian to make use of her reprieve in the draw and look to push on for another title on the hard courts in North America.
She looks to have been given a favourable draw against Jessica Pegula of the United States, even if the latter has produced two quality wins so far this week. This has been the first main Tour hard court tournament that the young American has entered this year and wins over Aleksandra Wozniak and Christine McHale, both in straight sets, are decent results to move forward with.
Some of the other results on the hard courts have been less impressive from Pegula this season but Stosur should give her respect considering she pushed Dominika Cibulkova to three sets last year at the US Open. The difference between Cibulkova and Stosur is the latter will produce some big time serving which will increase the pressure on Pegula who is trying to back up a huge upset win over McHale.
Stosur isn't at the same level that saw her win the US Open and the backhand remains a weakness, while she hasn't been blowing players off court too often on the hard courts. However she does save her best tennis for the US hard court swing and I am going to back her to cover a very big number at odds against.
Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Saisai Zheng: It has been a spectacular twelve months for Johanna Konta who will be amongst the Seeds at the US Open but I think the British Number 1 will be the first to admit to her disappointment with the way the grass court season went for her. A run to the Semi Final in Eastbourne was a solid result, but she was beaten in the Second Round in each of her other three events, including at Wimbledon.
One of the more disappointing defeats had to be the one suffered at the hands of Saisai Zheng, a player Konta had beaten fairly comfortably the previous two times they had met. I am not sure if there was a physical issue there, or whether the mental pressure of playing at home was the reason for that loss, but Konta looked good in her opening win in Stanford.
Both of Zheng's wins this week have looked good too, particularly the way she dismissed Alize Cornet in the last Round. However her game is one that Konta won't be overawed by and the latter has to feel she can get into those service games and earn break points through the contest.
The issue for Konta in Nottingham was that she simply did not serve well enough to keep Zheng under pressure and made too many mistakes through the match. That won't get it done against a solid, if unspectacular, opponent and Konta will know she has to be a little cleverer at the big moments to make this an easier day in the office.
The first serve is the key for Konta- if she can dominate behind that shot, I would expect she will have enough chances to record a 64, 63 win in this one and that is what I will be backing.
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 games v Misaki Doi: A strong end to the tournament in Washington will give Dominika Cibulkova every chance to work her way back into the top 10 of the World Rankings. Cibulkova is now a married player on the Tour and that has worked out well for some of the ATP players over the last couple of years and it will be interesting to see how it works out for her.
She played well in her first win in Washington, but Cibulkova's issue will always be protecting the serve well enough to come through matches on the faster hard courts. Her run to the Australian Open Final suggests she can do that, but the North American hard courts tend to play a little faster than the ones 'Down Under'.
Being overpowered shouldn't be a concern for Cibulkova in this Quarter Final as she meets Misaki Doi for the first time in their careers. Doi has won two matches as a strong favourite, but the First Round was far from straight forward and this is a player that has plenty of issues with her own serve.
The key for Doi is to try and stay in the rallies and look for an aggressive Cibulkova to make a lot of unforced errors as she starts chasing the lines. However I do think Cibulkova will have success on the return against a weak serve and I believe the Slovakian can move through to the Semi Final behind a 76, 62 win.
Coco Vandeweghe - 2.5 games v Alison Riske: There is no doubt that Coco Vandeweghe is still a very erratic player capable of mixing the sublime with the ridiculous, but she needs to find a little more consistency if she is going to be Seeded at the US Open. Her come from behind win over Nicole Gibbs would have given her confidence, but Vandeweghe will have to be a lot stronger in a lot of departments if she is going to see off compatriot Alison Riske in this Quarter Final.
It has been a difficult season for Riske when it comes to trying to find the consistency to improve her own World Ranking, but she does have a few Finals to call upon. Coming off a decent grass court season, although one that saw her disappointingly beaten early at Wimbledon, should have raised the confidence levels backed up by two come from behind wins in Stanford.
However I do wonder if that is going to have a physical effect on Riske having played six sets compared with three Vandeweghe has played. She hasn't played a lot of tennis in recent weeks which should help, but there is only so many times you can go to the well and recover from a set down, with the mental fatigue also a potential factor.
My concern whenever I back Vandeweghe is that her aggressive style will lead to a lot of unforced errors which gifts breaks of serve away. The actual serve is a big weapon, but you have to follow that up correctly and failure to do that will give Riske a way into this match. In saying that, I think the latter has played a lot of tennis already this week and I don't think it will be possible for her to come back from a set behind again and I like Vandeweghe to move through behind a 64, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Laura Siegemund - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson - 1.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Samantha Stosur - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 12-11, - 1.84 Units (46 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
At the time of writing this post, I still have two picks running from Washington and Stanford and if both of those come in I should be very close to getting this week back into the positive.
In the mean time I have started making my picks from the matches to be played on Friday when the Quarter Finals take over in the majority of the tournaments, although Kitzbuhel has already gotten to the Semi Final Round of that event.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: Damir Dzumhur has beaten one Italian already this week, but now he takes on the best player from that nation on the ATP Tour in Fabio Fognini. There will be a revenge element in play for Dzumhur who was beaten in straight sets by Fognini last year in Umag in a Second Round match, although there is more on the line this time around with a Semi Final berth awaiting the winner.
I wasn't sure how Fognini was going to react to losing Rubber 4 in the Davis Cup Quarter Final on Sunday, although it has to be noted he looked the better player for much of that defeat to Federico Delbonis. I think he was struggling physically, but he should be well rested by Friday having needed to win just one match to get to this Quarter Final.
It has been a disappointing season for Fognini on the clay courts and he still has a losing record on the surface going into this match. That is in contrast to Dzumhur who has a winning record even though he has had to come through Qualifiers in a number of big tournaments. However he had lost four in a row on the clay prior to his win here earlier in the week and Dzumhur is not going to overpower Fognini in this one.
There should be some long rallies in this one as both players are capable of producing strong defensive tennis, but I think Fognini is the better player and that should eventually show. Last year he was a fairly comfortable winner, but this year it might be a closer 75, 64 kind of win for the Italian as he gets through to a rare Semi Final in 2016.
Laura Siegemund - 3.5 games v Lara Arruabarrena: It was a withdrawal from Angelique Kerber which allowed Lara Arruabarrena through to the Quarter Final, but she faces another German if she wants to go any further in the draw. Laura Siegemund reached the Semi Final in Bucharest last week and she has had her best results on the clay courts this season which makes her the favourite.
This has already been a career year for Siegemund and she has played some solid tennis to get through to the Quarter Final. Both of her wins have come in straight sets and I think Siegemund has the kind of game that will give Arruabarrena a lot to deal with.
The last seven losses Arruabarrena has had on the clay courts has seen her fail to get within this number and someone like Siegemund can get the better of her here. The Spaniard did reach the Semi Final in Bastad last season which would suggest she is comfortable in the conditions at this tournament, but Arruabarrena is not in really strong form at the moment.
Missing a match might keep her physically ready for this match, but it isn't enough against someone who will be battle hardened and I expect Siegemund to come through 64, 64.
Johanna Larsson - 1.5 games v Annika Beck: This has been a tournament that Johanna Larsson has loved playing at throughout her career with three Final appearances here. The defending Champion plays well in front of her own supporters and I think she can get the better of Annika Beck in what could be a very competitive Quarter Final.
I have to respect what Beck will bring to the table which can cause Larsson some problems. We saw Sara Sorribes Tormo give Larsson a hard time by making a few more balls back in play and Beck will be looking to do that throughout this match and try and break down the home favourite mentally as well as physically.
One difference between the players is that Larsson has a much bigger serve than her opponent and I expect her to get a few more free points in this one. Larsson broke the Sorribes Tormo serve every time on Thursday and she will have a chance to play first strike tennis against the Beck serve in this Quarter Final with much of the match on her racquet.
Larsson has been a dominant force in her home tournament over the seasons and she doesn't drop a lot of sets here in winning efforts. I expect her to win this match and so I will back her to cover this number in a three set win.
Samantha Stosur - 5.5 games v Jessica Pegula: There was an element of fortune about Samantha Stosur's Second Round win over Caroline Wozniacki as the latter had to retire with an injury while leading by a set. Now it is up to the Australian to make use of her reprieve in the draw and look to push on for another title on the hard courts in North America.
She looks to have been given a favourable draw against Jessica Pegula of the United States, even if the latter has produced two quality wins so far this week. This has been the first main Tour hard court tournament that the young American has entered this year and wins over Aleksandra Wozniak and Christine McHale, both in straight sets, are decent results to move forward with.
Some of the other results on the hard courts have been less impressive from Pegula this season but Stosur should give her respect considering she pushed Dominika Cibulkova to three sets last year at the US Open. The difference between Cibulkova and Stosur is the latter will produce some big time serving which will increase the pressure on Pegula who is trying to back up a huge upset win over McHale.
Stosur isn't at the same level that saw her win the US Open and the backhand remains a weakness, while she hasn't been blowing players off court too often on the hard courts. However she does save her best tennis for the US hard court swing and I am going to back her to cover a very big number at odds against.
Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Saisai Zheng: It has been a spectacular twelve months for Johanna Konta who will be amongst the Seeds at the US Open but I think the British Number 1 will be the first to admit to her disappointment with the way the grass court season went for her. A run to the Semi Final in Eastbourne was a solid result, but she was beaten in the Second Round in each of her other three events, including at Wimbledon.
One of the more disappointing defeats had to be the one suffered at the hands of Saisai Zheng, a player Konta had beaten fairly comfortably the previous two times they had met. I am not sure if there was a physical issue there, or whether the mental pressure of playing at home was the reason for that loss, but Konta looked good in her opening win in Stanford.
Both of Zheng's wins this week have looked good too, particularly the way she dismissed Alize Cornet in the last Round. However her game is one that Konta won't be overawed by and the latter has to feel she can get into those service games and earn break points through the contest.
The issue for Konta in Nottingham was that she simply did not serve well enough to keep Zheng under pressure and made too many mistakes through the match. That won't get it done against a solid, if unspectacular, opponent and Konta will know she has to be a little cleverer at the big moments to make this an easier day in the office.
The first serve is the key for Konta- if she can dominate behind that shot, I would expect she will have enough chances to record a 64, 63 win in this one and that is what I will be backing.
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 games v Misaki Doi: A strong end to the tournament in Washington will give Dominika Cibulkova every chance to work her way back into the top 10 of the World Rankings. Cibulkova is now a married player on the Tour and that has worked out well for some of the ATP players over the last couple of years and it will be interesting to see how it works out for her.
She played well in her first win in Washington, but Cibulkova's issue will always be protecting the serve well enough to come through matches on the faster hard courts. Her run to the Australian Open Final suggests she can do that, but the North American hard courts tend to play a little faster than the ones 'Down Under'.
Being overpowered shouldn't be a concern for Cibulkova in this Quarter Final as she meets Misaki Doi for the first time in their careers. Doi has won two matches as a strong favourite, but the First Round was far from straight forward and this is a player that has plenty of issues with her own serve.
The key for Doi is to try and stay in the rallies and look for an aggressive Cibulkova to make a lot of unforced errors as she starts chasing the lines. However I do think Cibulkova will have success on the return against a weak serve and I believe the Slovakian can move through to the Semi Final behind a 76, 62 win.
Coco Vandeweghe - 2.5 games v Alison Riske: There is no doubt that Coco Vandeweghe is still a very erratic player capable of mixing the sublime with the ridiculous, but she needs to find a little more consistency if she is going to be Seeded at the US Open. Her come from behind win over Nicole Gibbs would have given her confidence, but Vandeweghe will have to be a lot stronger in a lot of departments if she is going to see off compatriot Alison Riske in this Quarter Final.
It has been a difficult season for Riske when it comes to trying to find the consistency to improve her own World Ranking, but she does have a few Finals to call upon. Coming off a decent grass court season, although one that saw her disappointingly beaten early at Wimbledon, should have raised the confidence levels backed up by two come from behind wins in Stanford.
However I do wonder if that is going to have a physical effect on Riske having played six sets compared with three Vandeweghe has played. She hasn't played a lot of tennis in recent weeks which should help, but there is only so many times you can go to the well and recover from a set down, with the mental fatigue also a potential factor.
My concern whenever I back Vandeweghe is that her aggressive style will lead to a lot of unforced errors which gifts breaks of serve away. The actual serve is a big weapon, but you have to follow that up correctly and failure to do that will give Riske a way into this match. In saying that, I think the latter has played a lot of tennis already this week and I don't think it will be possible for her to come back from a set behind again and I like Vandeweghe to move through behind a 64, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Laura Siegemund - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson - 1.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Samantha Stosur - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 12-11, - 1.84 Units (46 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Thursday, 21 July 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (July 21st)
The Canadian Masters and Premier Event are being played next week rather than in August and the timing of the event has seen a number of the big names decide to pull out of the event. While many of the top Singles players will be taking part at the Olympic Games, others have decided that this change in their usual schedule is not worth undertaking and the event, particularly the ATP event, has taken a big hit in star power.
The likes of Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have pulled out all citing they need more time to recover physically from Wimbledon/wrist injury and much of that has to be have been affected by this tournament moving forward at least two weeks.
Others have followed suit although notably not Novak Djokovic (not yet anyway) and I think the Toronto Masters now looks a big chance for someone to pick up some huge Ranking points and perhaps the biggest title of their career.
Thursday will see a number of tennis matches played across the seven tournaments being played this week and we are beginning to get to the business end of events. It is the final non-hard court events on the main Tour for the rest of the season and the run to the US Open will begin next week in Canada and take in a number of stops on the road to New York at the end of August.
Robin Haase - 1.5 games v Horacio Zeballos: It might be Horacio Zeballos who is Ranked higher than Robin Haase, but I think the Dutchman is rightly considered the favourite in this Gstaad Second Round match.
Both players have come through their First Round match relatively comfortably and some may look to the underdog considering how well Zeballos has played on the clay courts at the Challenger level. In recent weeks Zeballos has won two Challenger events on this surface and reached the Final in another, but he has not been able to turn that success into wins on the main Tour.
Zeballos did play well in reaching the Second Round at this tournament last season, coming through the Qualifiers to get to that Round. However you have to wonder if he has the consistency to play at the highest level even if he is playing against an opponent that is far from consistent and capable of throwing in an absolute stinker of a match when not expecting him to do so.
2016 has been a tough season for Haase who is in danger of slipping out of the top 100 in the World Rankings, but a strong end to this tournament will get him moving in the right direction. Haase has had some disappointing losses on the clay this season, but the summer months have seen him produce his best tennis and he could be in line for another strong run in this tournament.
I don't think this will be easy and I wouldn't be surprised to see some twists and turns through the match, but I do think Haase is capable of winning this one 64, 36, 63.
Johanna Larsson - 3.5 games v Sara Sorribes Tormo: The Second Round match between Johanna Larsson and Sara Sorribes Tormo will be played in Bastad on Thursday. While Larsson came through her First Round match without too much fuss, Sorribes Tormo had to play three sets in her own First Round encounter after coming through two Qualifiers before that.
The young Spaniard has won a couple of titles at the levels below the WTA Tour and she will clearly favour clay with much of her life seeing her play on this surface. That will make Sorribes Tormo a threat, but she has yet to turn her successful results into deep, positive runs on the main Tour.
Last week it took Timea Bacsinszky to stop Sorribes Tormo's run, and the same player beat Larsson in the Quarter Final. It was a poor serving display from Larsson in that one, but that is one of her big weapons especially the kick she can get out of it, while being at home has proven to be a positive experience in the past.
Larsson won the title here last season without dropping a set and that was after twice previously being a losing Finalist in Bastad. Her game seems to work here and the motivation of playing in front of her home supporters clearly keeps her focused and I think Larsson can use all of her experience to get the better of Sorribes Tormo here too.
As long as she serves well, I think Larsson will have chances to break the Sorribes Tormo serve and come through this one 64, 64.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Lara Arruabarrena: There are times when I have to question the scheduling players have and this is one of those times after seeing Angelique Kerber in the draw. I am not entirely sure what has motivated the Australian Open Champion to take in another clay court tournament in a season where just 6 of her 35 wins have come on the surface, but now she is here I would expect a full effort.
Anything less will mean Kerber is going out of the tournament in the Second Round against Lara Arruabarrena. The latter might be Number 98 in the World Rankings, but Arruabarrena has had her best results on the clay and would have another winning record in a single season on this surface if she can win this match.
Some of the defeats have been disappointing for Arruabarrena and she has been beaten in all three previous matches against Kerber. That includes a tight three set defeat in Charleston earlier this season, but you can't ignore the fact that Kerber had lost four in a row on the clay courts outdoors, even if she did win the title in Stuttgart on an indoor clay court.
Motivation is a concern when backing Kerber this week, but she showed enough in coming back from a set down to beat Cornelia Lister in the First Round. This won't be an easy match for her in any shape or form against a clay court specialist, but I think Kerber can battle through for a 46, 62, 64 win.
Julia Goerges - 3.5 games v Bethanie Mattek-Sands: This is a big match for two players who have perhaps slipped further down the World Rankings than they would like to see. Bethanie Mattek-Sands is hoping to improve her own Ranking to ensure she can earn a direct entry into the US Open played next month, while Julia Goerges has to feel she is much better than her current Number 73 in the World Ranking.
I think Mattek-Sands was fortunate with the draw when meeting Kiki Bertens who reached the Final in a rain hit Gstaad last week. A lot of her matches were played in a short period of time at the end of the rain affected week which would have sapped physical strength as Bertens got through to the Final and I do think the American took advantage of that.
It is a big win and Mattek-Sands is capable of producing some big time tennis when she is in her best form. She will need all of that to beat Goerges in this Second Round match as the latter is the superior clay court player and can match the power that Mattek-Sands will bring to the court.
Goerges will again need to serve well and make sure she remains mentally focused when things are not going completely her way. Keeping unforced errors down and working Mattek-Sands around is important if she is to make it three wins in a row against the American, but I like Goerges' chances to do that.
The German did beat Mattek-Sands in straight sets earlier this season in Rome and I think she can match that with a 75, 64 win.
Coco Vandeweghe - 4.5 games v Nicole Gibbs: Two American players meet in the Second Round in Stanford in the final match of the day and it is Coco Vandeweghe who is a healthy favourite against Nicole Gibbs. I can't disagree with that even if Gibbs is in the midst of her best season on the Tour.
As well as Gibbs has played at times, her serve remains very vulnerable and that has seen her defeats come by wide margins. In her six defeats on the hard courts this season, Gibbs' opponents would have covered this number four times and Coco Vandeweghe has the kind of firepower that will cause her a few problems.
That will only be amplified if Vandeweghe is serving as well as she can and the pressure on Gibbs will come from the other side of the court and the scoreboard. It will be tough to ignore that on the faster surfaces where one break could be enough for someone like Vandeweghe to take the set and she can be a strong front runner as confidence builds.
My one concern for Vandeweghe has to be the poor run she had on the North American courts at this time last year and she can be a little loose when the break points come her way. However I think she will create enough chances to win this one 63, 64 and move into the Quarter Finals to be played on Friday.
Steve Johnson - 3.5 games v Ryan Harrison: One of the in-form players on the Tour is Steve Johnson who made a strong start to his hard court season with a convincing win over Adrian Mannarino. He should expect a much stronger challenge from Ryan Harrison, even if the latter is Number 158 in the World Rankings.
Harrison has really struggled for consistency since his breakout year on the Tour in 2012 and the majority of his time is spent on the Challenger circuit these days. However Harrison still has a pretty big serve and can play some strong stuff on the hard courts which makes him a dangerous opponent despite what the World Ranking may indicate.
He has already won three matches here in Washington having come through the Qualifiers and Harrison certainly has an ability to steal sets off of his opponents on the hard courts even if he ultimately comes up short in the match. It has to be a concern in backing Steve Johnson who might be full of confidence, but who has a losing record on the hard courts this season.
Johnson did reach the Semi Final in Washington last season and will be looking to match that performance to make sure he keeps his Ranking high enough to be Seeded at his home Grand Slam next month. The higher Ranked American in this contest has certainly been serving very well and I think he can get the better of Harrison in this one although it is likely to be in two competitive sets as I look for Johnson to come through 76, 63.
Jack Sock - 3.5 games v Daniel Evans: Most of the players left in the men's draw in Washington are Seeded players, but part of the reason we haven't seen a clean sweep is because of Daniel Evans. The British player was a deserving winner over an out of form Grigor Dimitrov in the last Round and he will be looking to back that up when he faces Jack Sock on Thursday.
A place in the Quarter Final is at stake and it would be a huge boost for Evans in terms of his World Ranking which was at a career high just last week. He is still inside the top 100 and Evans will be looking to keep that Ranking trending in the right direction, but the win over Dimitrov might make him a little over-rated in this one.
There is no doubting that Jack Sock has plenty of room for improvement including backing up his serve more effectively than he does and improving his return game. However the American does have some heavy groundstrokes, particularly the forehand wing, and Sock will be looking for a run that could potentially see him move inside the top 20 in the World Rankings.
Sock had a tough win over Lukas Lacko in the last Round and the next few weeks present him a real chance to put up some big Ranking points with nothing much to defend. He did reach the Quarter Final in Washington last season and Evans hasn't played too many matches at this level over the last few seasons. I respect how well he played to see off Dimitrov, but Sock should be a much more confident player and can win this one 76, 63.
John Isner - 2.5 games v Marcos Baghdatis: At Wimbledon, John Isner made it seven straight wins over Marcos Baghdatis and I think the American will have his chances to make it eight in a row on Thursday. His serve will always give him a chance to win matches, but the key to this one is that Baghdatis is likely to throw in a cheap service game or two which can be difficult to retrieve on the faster hard courts.
Their match at Wimbledon was close, but I do think Baghdatis is more comfortable on the grass than Isner, whereas the hard courts are much more to Isner's liking. Both players performed well to win their Second Round matches on Wednesday, but this is a step up in competition for both and the mental edge has to be given to Isner considering their previous head to head match ups.
When Baghdatis builds up some momentum he can be tough to stop, but there are plenty of early exits on the hard courts that the Cypriot has experienced over the last few seasons. Too many second serves gives players a chance to have a real swing against him and Baghdatis has to be mentally right at the races to stay with Isner in this one.
The Davis Cup loss to Marin Cilic was a big disappointment for Isner but he has an easier way to get over those mental blows with his serve being a huge weapon on the hard courts. He might need a tie-breaker to win the first set, but I think Isner will then have a few chances against the Baghdatis serve as tiredness and scoreboard pressure build up which will lead to a 76, 64 win for the Number 1 Seed.
Sam Querrey - 1.5 games v Alexandr Dolgopolov: One of the most frustrating players on the Tour has to be Alexandr Dolgopolov who has all the talent, but rarely makes the right shot selection. He looks like a player that simply goes out on the court and will play his own way regardless of whether it is the right tactic for the day and Dolgopolov will take his chances whether he wins or loses.
I don't know if it matters to him so much if he doesn't win and so it can be hard to know what exactly you are going to see from the Dolgopolov racquet on any given day.
That is not the case with Sam Querrey who will look to dominate behind a big serve and heavy forehand wherever possible. The win over Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon has raised his stock, but it is important for Querrey to back that up over the next few weeks on what should be his favoured hard courts.
Querrey has had an inconsistent year on the hard courts with early losses in Indian Wells and Miami, but winning a title in Delray Beach. He doesn't have a lot of points to defend over the next few weeks which will give him a chance to really improve his Number 29 position in the World Rankings and the American has won his last three matches against Dolgopolov including both matches last season.
I just believe Querrey won't be as erratic as Dolgopolov who had success at this stage of the Tour last year but who has been very inconsistent through 2016. It should be an interesting match while it lasts but I think Querrey can come through and cover this number.
MY PICKS: Robin Haase - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-9, - 7.66 Units (30 Units Staked, - 25.53% Yield)
The likes of Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have pulled out all citing they need more time to recover physically from Wimbledon/wrist injury and much of that has to be have been affected by this tournament moving forward at least two weeks.
Others have followed suit although notably not Novak Djokovic (not yet anyway) and I think the Toronto Masters now looks a big chance for someone to pick up some huge Ranking points and perhaps the biggest title of their career.
Thursday will see a number of tennis matches played across the seven tournaments being played this week and we are beginning to get to the business end of events. It is the final non-hard court events on the main Tour for the rest of the season and the run to the US Open will begin next week in Canada and take in a number of stops on the road to New York at the end of August.
Robin Haase - 1.5 games v Horacio Zeballos: It might be Horacio Zeballos who is Ranked higher than Robin Haase, but I think the Dutchman is rightly considered the favourite in this Gstaad Second Round match.
Both players have come through their First Round match relatively comfortably and some may look to the underdog considering how well Zeballos has played on the clay courts at the Challenger level. In recent weeks Zeballos has won two Challenger events on this surface and reached the Final in another, but he has not been able to turn that success into wins on the main Tour.
Zeballos did play well in reaching the Second Round at this tournament last season, coming through the Qualifiers to get to that Round. However you have to wonder if he has the consistency to play at the highest level even if he is playing against an opponent that is far from consistent and capable of throwing in an absolute stinker of a match when not expecting him to do so.
2016 has been a tough season for Haase who is in danger of slipping out of the top 100 in the World Rankings, but a strong end to this tournament will get him moving in the right direction. Haase has had some disappointing losses on the clay this season, but the summer months have seen him produce his best tennis and he could be in line for another strong run in this tournament.
I don't think this will be easy and I wouldn't be surprised to see some twists and turns through the match, but I do think Haase is capable of winning this one 64, 36, 63.
Johanna Larsson - 3.5 games v Sara Sorribes Tormo: The Second Round match between Johanna Larsson and Sara Sorribes Tormo will be played in Bastad on Thursday. While Larsson came through her First Round match without too much fuss, Sorribes Tormo had to play three sets in her own First Round encounter after coming through two Qualifiers before that.
The young Spaniard has won a couple of titles at the levels below the WTA Tour and she will clearly favour clay with much of her life seeing her play on this surface. That will make Sorribes Tormo a threat, but she has yet to turn her successful results into deep, positive runs on the main Tour.
Last week it took Timea Bacsinszky to stop Sorribes Tormo's run, and the same player beat Larsson in the Quarter Final. It was a poor serving display from Larsson in that one, but that is one of her big weapons especially the kick she can get out of it, while being at home has proven to be a positive experience in the past.
Larsson won the title here last season without dropping a set and that was after twice previously being a losing Finalist in Bastad. Her game seems to work here and the motivation of playing in front of her home supporters clearly keeps her focused and I think Larsson can use all of her experience to get the better of Sorribes Tormo here too.
As long as she serves well, I think Larsson will have chances to break the Sorribes Tormo serve and come through this one 64, 64.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Lara Arruabarrena: There are times when I have to question the scheduling players have and this is one of those times after seeing Angelique Kerber in the draw. I am not entirely sure what has motivated the Australian Open Champion to take in another clay court tournament in a season where just 6 of her 35 wins have come on the surface, but now she is here I would expect a full effort.
Anything less will mean Kerber is going out of the tournament in the Second Round against Lara Arruabarrena. The latter might be Number 98 in the World Rankings, but Arruabarrena has had her best results on the clay and would have another winning record in a single season on this surface if she can win this match.
Some of the defeats have been disappointing for Arruabarrena and she has been beaten in all three previous matches against Kerber. That includes a tight three set defeat in Charleston earlier this season, but you can't ignore the fact that Kerber had lost four in a row on the clay courts outdoors, even if she did win the title in Stuttgart on an indoor clay court.
Motivation is a concern when backing Kerber this week, but she showed enough in coming back from a set down to beat Cornelia Lister in the First Round. This won't be an easy match for her in any shape or form against a clay court specialist, but I think Kerber can battle through for a 46, 62, 64 win.
Julia Goerges - 3.5 games v Bethanie Mattek-Sands: This is a big match for two players who have perhaps slipped further down the World Rankings than they would like to see. Bethanie Mattek-Sands is hoping to improve her own Ranking to ensure she can earn a direct entry into the US Open played next month, while Julia Goerges has to feel she is much better than her current Number 73 in the World Ranking.
I think Mattek-Sands was fortunate with the draw when meeting Kiki Bertens who reached the Final in a rain hit Gstaad last week. A lot of her matches were played in a short period of time at the end of the rain affected week which would have sapped physical strength as Bertens got through to the Final and I do think the American took advantage of that.
It is a big win and Mattek-Sands is capable of producing some big time tennis when she is in her best form. She will need all of that to beat Goerges in this Second Round match as the latter is the superior clay court player and can match the power that Mattek-Sands will bring to the court.
Goerges will again need to serve well and make sure she remains mentally focused when things are not going completely her way. Keeping unforced errors down and working Mattek-Sands around is important if she is to make it three wins in a row against the American, but I like Goerges' chances to do that.
The German did beat Mattek-Sands in straight sets earlier this season in Rome and I think she can match that with a 75, 64 win.
Coco Vandeweghe - 4.5 games v Nicole Gibbs: Two American players meet in the Second Round in Stanford in the final match of the day and it is Coco Vandeweghe who is a healthy favourite against Nicole Gibbs. I can't disagree with that even if Gibbs is in the midst of her best season on the Tour.
As well as Gibbs has played at times, her serve remains very vulnerable and that has seen her defeats come by wide margins. In her six defeats on the hard courts this season, Gibbs' opponents would have covered this number four times and Coco Vandeweghe has the kind of firepower that will cause her a few problems.
That will only be amplified if Vandeweghe is serving as well as she can and the pressure on Gibbs will come from the other side of the court and the scoreboard. It will be tough to ignore that on the faster surfaces where one break could be enough for someone like Vandeweghe to take the set and she can be a strong front runner as confidence builds.
My one concern for Vandeweghe has to be the poor run she had on the North American courts at this time last year and she can be a little loose when the break points come her way. However I think she will create enough chances to win this one 63, 64 and move into the Quarter Finals to be played on Friday.
Steve Johnson - 3.5 games v Ryan Harrison: One of the in-form players on the Tour is Steve Johnson who made a strong start to his hard court season with a convincing win over Adrian Mannarino. He should expect a much stronger challenge from Ryan Harrison, even if the latter is Number 158 in the World Rankings.
Harrison has really struggled for consistency since his breakout year on the Tour in 2012 and the majority of his time is spent on the Challenger circuit these days. However Harrison still has a pretty big serve and can play some strong stuff on the hard courts which makes him a dangerous opponent despite what the World Ranking may indicate.
He has already won three matches here in Washington having come through the Qualifiers and Harrison certainly has an ability to steal sets off of his opponents on the hard courts even if he ultimately comes up short in the match. It has to be a concern in backing Steve Johnson who might be full of confidence, but who has a losing record on the hard courts this season.
Johnson did reach the Semi Final in Washington last season and will be looking to match that performance to make sure he keeps his Ranking high enough to be Seeded at his home Grand Slam next month. The higher Ranked American in this contest has certainly been serving very well and I think he can get the better of Harrison in this one although it is likely to be in two competitive sets as I look for Johnson to come through 76, 63.
Jack Sock - 3.5 games v Daniel Evans: Most of the players left in the men's draw in Washington are Seeded players, but part of the reason we haven't seen a clean sweep is because of Daniel Evans. The British player was a deserving winner over an out of form Grigor Dimitrov in the last Round and he will be looking to back that up when he faces Jack Sock on Thursday.
A place in the Quarter Final is at stake and it would be a huge boost for Evans in terms of his World Ranking which was at a career high just last week. He is still inside the top 100 and Evans will be looking to keep that Ranking trending in the right direction, but the win over Dimitrov might make him a little over-rated in this one.
There is no doubting that Jack Sock has plenty of room for improvement including backing up his serve more effectively than he does and improving his return game. However the American does have some heavy groundstrokes, particularly the forehand wing, and Sock will be looking for a run that could potentially see him move inside the top 20 in the World Rankings.
Sock had a tough win over Lukas Lacko in the last Round and the next few weeks present him a real chance to put up some big Ranking points with nothing much to defend. He did reach the Quarter Final in Washington last season and Evans hasn't played too many matches at this level over the last few seasons. I respect how well he played to see off Dimitrov, but Sock should be a much more confident player and can win this one 76, 63.
John Isner - 2.5 games v Marcos Baghdatis: At Wimbledon, John Isner made it seven straight wins over Marcos Baghdatis and I think the American will have his chances to make it eight in a row on Thursday. His serve will always give him a chance to win matches, but the key to this one is that Baghdatis is likely to throw in a cheap service game or two which can be difficult to retrieve on the faster hard courts.
Their match at Wimbledon was close, but I do think Baghdatis is more comfortable on the grass than Isner, whereas the hard courts are much more to Isner's liking. Both players performed well to win their Second Round matches on Wednesday, but this is a step up in competition for both and the mental edge has to be given to Isner considering their previous head to head match ups.
When Baghdatis builds up some momentum he can be tough to stop, but there are plenty of early exits on the hard courts that the Cypriot has experienced over the last few seasons. Too many second serves gives players a chance to have a real swing against him and Baghdatis has to be mentally right at the races to stay with Isner in this one.
The Davis Cup loss to Marin Cilic was a big disappointment for Isner but he has an easier way to get over those mental blows with his serve being a huge weapon on the hard courts. He might need a tie-breaker to win the first set, but I think Isner will then have a few chances against the Baghdatis serve as tiredness and scoreboard pressure build up which will lead to a 76, 64 win for the Number 1 Seed.
Sam Querrey - 1.5 games v Alexandr Dolgopolov: One of the most frustrating players on the Tour has to be Alexandr Dolgopolov who has all the talent, but rarely makes the right shot selection. He looks like a player that simply goes out on the court and will play his own way regardless of whether it is the right tactic for the day and Dolgopolov will take his chances whether he wins or loses.
I don't know if it matters to him so much if he doesn't win and so it can be hard to know what exactly you are going to see from the Dolgopolov racquet on any given day.
That is not the case with Sam Querrey who will look to dominate behind a big serve and heavy forehand wherever possible. The win over Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon has raised his stock, but it is important for Querrey to back that up over the next few weeks on what should be his favoured hard courts.
Querrey has had an inconsistent year on the hard courts with early losses in Indian Wells and Miami, but winning a title in Delray Beach. He doesn't have a lot of points to defend over the next few weeks which will give him a chance to really improve his Number 29 position in the World Rankings and the American has won his last three matches against Dolgopolov including both matches last season.
I just believe Querrey won't be as erratic as Dolgopolov who had success at this stage of the Tour last year but who has been very inconsistent through 2016. It should be an interesting match while it lasts but I think Querrey can come through and cover this number.
MY PICKS: Robin Haase - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-9, - 7.66 Units (30 Units Staked, - 25.53% Yield)
Wednesday, 20 July 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (July 20th)
Tuesday was a pretty horrific day for the picks and I have to say I was disappointed in the manner some of the picks went down.
I'll put Grigor Dimitrov on my blacklist going forward and won't be looking to back him again until he begins to string together some consistent results, while Eugenie Bouchard gave away her match with Camila Giorgi.
Donald Young missed his cover by failing to take his chances in the second set and overall it was just a frustrating day all round.
Hopefully Wednesday will be better but my hopes of a third week in a row with a winning record looks in big trouble already.
Nikoloz Basilashvili - 2.5 games v Igor Sijsling: Two players Ranked outside the top 100 in the World Rankings have a big chance to improve their positioning by winning this match. A place in the Quarter Final in Kitzbuhel is available to the winner and those Ranking points could be very important when it comes to Nikoloz Basilashvili and Igor Sijsling perhaps automatically Qualifying for upcoming Grand Slam events.
Both players have recorded solid wins over big servers in their opening matches in Kitzbuhel, but Basilashvili has to hold the mental advantage having beaten Sijsling twice already this season. Both of those wins have come on the clay courts, although they were competitive and tightly contested.
The last match only took place a couple of weeks ago and Basilashvili had to come from a set down to beat Sijsling on that occasion. He was the better player in that match and deserved his comeback win and I think Basilashvili can come through and beat Sijsling for the third time this season.
It will be close as neither player is that confident on the clay courts, even at the lower level. However those wins that Basilashvili has already earned over Sijsling can help him win this one 76, 64.
Daniel Gimeno-Traver - 1.5 games v Gerald Melzer: Another Second Round match at Kitzbuhel featuring two players Ranked outside the top 100 is going to be played on Tuesday. Gerald Melzer came from behind to beat one Spaniard on Tuesday and he will be looking to add Daniel Gimeno-Traver to his list of players beaten.
Once again Melzer is the underdog in this one, but only a slight one, and I was hoping that he might be over-rated after beating Albert Montanes. That doesn't seem to be the case, but I still believe Gimeno-Traver can get the better of him on the clay courts on which the Spaniard plays his best tennis.
Gimeno-Traver has had the better clay court results in recent weeks including reaching the Quarter Final in Hamburg last week and another win would get him very close to cracking back into the top 100 in the World Rankings. As well as Melzer did in turning around his match with Montanes, he will be tested again on Wednesday and I do wonder if that physical exertion will eventually be a telling factor.
The Austrian had lost three in a row before beating Montanes, but I will be looking for Gimeno-Traver to get the better of this one even if it does go three sets.
Sara Errani - 1.5 games v Viktorija Golubic: A winning effort in Gstaad has sent Viktorija Golubic into the top 100 in the World Rankings and any sense of fatigue has been wiped out with an impressive First Round win in Bastad. Her title win last week has to be something of a surprise to most followers of the WTA Tour considering Golubic's lack of consistency on the clay courts and she will be tested to the full in this one.
I won't mince my words here- Sara Errani is very close to my blacklist with her performances this season, but the clay courts should still see her best form. This is the kind of match that Errani would have enjoyed in the past as she would look to wear down Golubic, but she is not at the level she has been playing at in recent seasons.
However I do think there is a case for backing Errani as Golubic has to be feeling all of her exertions of the last ten days. This will be her seventh match in that time, while the rain in Gstaad last week means a lot of her matches were played in a much shorter period, including playing twice on the same day.
That is going to play a part at some point and Errani is the kind of player that should be able to take advantage. She hasn't been in the best form in 2016, but physically she should be stronger than Golubic and I think Errani can win this in three sets and cover this number.
Jiri Vesely - 1.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: I am not buying the Wimbledon run as a true turning point for Jiri Vesely until he can show better consistency, while I think he is heading towards his worst time of the season. Despite the big offensive weapons, Vesely struggles on the faster hard courts and so has to make use of the clay court events he does have left until after the US Open.
The clay has been his most productive surface of the season so far but it hasn't been a great season to this point. Vesely's performances have been given a gloss by the run at Wimbledon to the Fourth Round, otherwise he might have been struggling to match the number of wins from 2015, while he is still only Number 50 in the World Rankings even with a solid Grand Slam run behind him.
That might sound like I am really down on Vesely, but I think much of his issues are between the ears rather than what he can produce on the court. He is taking on a clay court specialist in Carlos Berlocq in the Second Round in Umag, but the veteran Argentinian has struggled with his own consistency back up to the main ATP level after injury.
I don't doubt Berlocq will be confident after some solid runs at Challenger level where he has won a title and reached two Semi Finals in recent weeks on the clay. He was impressive in the First Round too which makes him a danger but I think Vesely might have a little extra pop in his game which can give him the edge.
Berlocq will be strong defensively which is an issue for an inconsistent player like Vesely, but I think the former has a serve which can be attacked and I believe Vesely comes through 75, 46, 64.
Damir Dzumhur - 3.5 games v Thomas Fabbiano: The win over Nicolas Almagro might have opened the door to this draw for Damir Dzumhur who should still receive plenty of support from nearby Bosnia and Herzegovina. He played well to knock off the Spaniard and is a healthy favourite to beat Italian Thomas Fabbiano who was cruising to victory against an injured opponent who eventually retired.
You might think the clay would be Fabbiano's favourite surface considering his nationality, but his best results over the last two seasons have been on the hard courts. Prior to the win in the First Round here, Fabbiano had actually been 1-6 on the clay courts and I do wonder if he can match the consistency that Dzumhur will bring to the court.
It hasn't been the case in recent matches between the two players as Dzumhur has won the last three, all on clay, without dropping a set including in the Qualifiers for Monte Carlo in April. Almost half of Dzumhur's wins in 2016 have come on the clay courts, although he had also lost four in a row before the win over Nicolas Almagro.
Dzumhur has been in Davis Cup action last week from which he should have gained some confidence after helping Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Turkey. The win over Almagro would have boosted that confidence, while his successes against Fabbiano in recent matches as well as the latter's struggles on clay should give him an additional edge. I think that will help Dzumhur come through this match with a 64, 64 win.
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Malek Jaziri: He reached a maiden Grand Slam Quarter Final in what was a career best season for Kevin Anderson, but he hasn't had much luck on the injury front in 2016. After winning 46 matches on the Tour last season, Anderson has won just 5 this season which began with a retirement in Australia that cost him the first quarter of the season.
Missing the early hard court season was a blow to Anderson whose game isn't really suited to the clay courts, while he had a difficult draw at Wimbledon that resulted in a First Round defeat. All of these factors have seen Anderson drop to Number 33 in the World Ranking, but a good few weeks will at least see him Seeded for the US Open where he was a Quarter Finalist last season.
Anderson doesn't have a really strong record in Washington, but he has been a Quarter Finalist on a couple of occasions and his head to head with Malek Jaziri should give him confidence. If Anderson is serving well he should have chances against the Jaziri serve as the latter is always liable to throw in a couple of loose games per set.
This is looking to be the best season Jaziri has produced on the Tour and he reached a career high Ranking just last week. He has played well on the hard courts at the Challenger level, but Jaziri has not been able to produce that regularly at the main Tour level and the big servers do tend to give him mental problems which he struggles to overcome.
Jaziri seems to feel the pressure from the scoreboard and his loose service games tend to cost him against those big servers and I think that might be the case here. I do think Anderson is short of confidence, but knowing his own success rate against this opponent should help his cause and he can win this one 75, 64.
Caroline Wozniacki - 2.5 games v Samantha Stosur: This is a very good looking match for a Second Round at an event like we have in Washington, but much of that is down to the drop in the World Ranking Caroline Wozniacki has suffered. The former World Number 1 is now Number 58 in the World Rankings and that has meant she has been given some tough early draws.
Wozniacki is going to have to overcome those if she is going to recover her Ranking but she will take heart from the fact she beat Samantha Stosur comfortably in their last match at Eastbourne last month. Knocking out the Number 1 Seed might open the draw for Wozniacki, but the Dane will be well aware that facing Stosur on a hard court is a totally different proposition than taking her on on a grass court.
That is clear from the fact that Stosur has won a US Open title in the past and she was a Semi Finalist in Washington last season. However it has to be said that Stosur's performances on the hard courts this season have been a little more inconsistent and Wozniacki will feel she can get enough balls back in play to the Stosur backhand to start to control rallies.
The Wozniacki serve is nothing like the one that Stosur can produce which has to be an issue on the faster surfaces, while Stosur has won three of their five hard court clashes. The last of those was won by Wozniacki though and I think she can battle her way through to a 67, 75, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Nikoloz Basilashvili - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniel Gimeno-Traver - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Damir Dzumhur - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-7, - 10.58 Units (18 Units Staked, - 58.78% Yield)
I'll put Grigor Dimitrov on my blacklist going forward and won't be looking to back him again until he begins to string together some consistent results, while Eugenie Bouchard gave away her match with Camila Giorgi.
Donald Young missed his cover by failing to take his chances in the second set and overall it was just a frustrating day all round.
Hopefully Wednesday will be better but my hopes of a third week in a row with a winning record looks in big trouble already.
Nikoloz Basilashvili - 2.5 games v Igor Sijsling: Two players Ranked outside the top 100 in the World Rankings have a big chance to improve their positioning by winning this match. A place in the Quarter Final in Kitzbuhel is available to the winner and those Ranking points could be very important when it comes to Nikoloz Basilashvili and Igor Sijsling perhaps automatically Qualifying for upcoming Grand Slam events.
Both players have recorded solid wins over big servers in their opening matches in Kitzbuhel, but Basilashvili has to hold the mental advantage having beaten Sijsling twice already this season. Both of those wins have come on the clay courts, although they were competitive and tightly contested.
The last match only took place a couple of weeks ago and Basilashvili had to come from a set down to beat Sijsling on that occasion. He was the better player in that match and deserved his comeback win and I think Basilashvili can come through and beat Sijsling for the third time this season.
It will be close as neither player is that confident on the clay courts, even at the lower level. However those wins that Basilashvili has already earned over Sijsling can help him win this one 76, 64.
Daniel Gimeno-Traver - 1.5 games v Gerald Melzer: Another Second Round match at Kitzbuhel featuring two players Ranked outside the top 100 is going to be played on Tuesday. Gerald Melzer came from behind to beat one Spaniard on Tuesday and he will be looking to add Daniel Gimeno-Traver to his list of players beaten.
Once again Melzer is the underdog in this one, but only a slight one, and I was hoping that he might be over-rated after beating Albert Montanes. That doesn't seem to be the case, but I still believe Gimeno-Traver can get the better of him on the clay courts on which the Spaniard plays his best tennis.
Gimeno-Traver has had the better clay court results in recent weeks including reaching the Quarter Final in Hamburg last week and another win would get him very close to cracking back into the top 100 in the World Rankings. As well as Melzer did in turning around his match with Montanes, he will be tested again on Wednesday and I do wonder if that physical exertion will eventually be a telling factor.
The Austrian had lost three in a row before beating Montanes, but I will be looking for Gimeno-Traver to get the better of this one even if it does go three sets.
Sara Errani - 1.5 games v Viktorija Golubic: A winning effort in Gstaad has sent Viktorija Golubic into the top 100 in the World Rankings and any sense of fatigue has been wiped out with an impressive First Round win in Bastad. Her title win last week has to be something of a surprise to most followers of the WTA Tour considering Golubic's lack of consistency on the clay courts and she will be tested to the full in this one.
I won't mince my words here- Sara Errani is very close to my blacklist with her performances this season, but the clay courts should still see her best form. This is the kind of match that Errani would have enjoyed in the past as she would look to wear down Golubic, but she is not at the level she has been playing at in recent seasons.
However I do think there is a case for backing Errani as Golubic has to be feeling all of her exertions of the last ten days. This will be her seventh match in that time, while the rain in Gstaad last week means a lot of her matches were played in a much shorter period, including playing twice on the same day.
That is going to play a part at some point and Errani is the kind of player that should be able to take advantage. She hasn't been in the best form in 2016, but physically she should be stronger than Golubic and I think Errani can win this in three sets and cover this number.
Jiri Vesely - 1.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: I am not buying the Wimbledon run as a true turning point for Jiri Vesely until he can show better consistency, while I think he is heading towards his worst time of the season. Despite the big offensive weapons, Vesely struggles on the faster hard courts and so has to make use of the clay court events he does have left until after the US Open.
The clay has been his most productive surface of the season so far but it hasn't been a great season to this point. Vesely's performances have been given a gloss by the run at Wimbledon to the Fourth Round, otherwise he might have been struggling to match the number of wins from 2015, while he is still only Number 50 in the World Rankings even with a solid Grand Slam run behind him.
That might sound like I am really down on Vesely, but I think much of his issues are between the ears rather than what he can produce on the court. He is taking on a clay court specialist in Carlos Berlocq in the Second Round in Umag, but the veteran Argentinian has struggled with his own consistency back up to the main ATP level after injury.
I don't doubt Berlocq will be confident after some solid runs at Challenger level where he has won a title and reached two Semi Finals in recent weeks on the clay. He was impressive in the First Round too which makes him a danger but I think Vesely might have a little extra pop in his game which can give him the edge.
Berlocq will be strong defensively which is an issue for an inconsistent player like Vesely, but I think the former has a serve which can be attacked and I believe Vesely comes through 75, 46, 64.
Damir Dzumhur - 3.5 games v Thomas Fabbiano: The win over Nicolas Almagro might have opened the door to this draw for Damir Dzumhur who should still receive plenty of support from nearby Bosnia and Herzegovina. He played well to knock off the Spaniard and is a healthy favourite to beat Italian Thomas Fabbiano who was cruising to victory against an injured opponent who eventually retired.
You might think the clay would be Fabbiano's favourite surface considering his nationality, but his best results over the last two seasons have been on the hard courts. Prior to the win in the First Round here, Fabbiano had actually been 1-6 on the clay courts and I do wonder if he can match the consistency that Dzumhur will bring to the court.
It hasn't been the case in recent matches between the two players as Dzumhur has won the last three, all on clay, without dropping a set including in the Qualifiers for Monte Carlo in April. Almost half of Dzumhur's wins in 2016 have come on the clay courts, although he had also lost four in a row before the win over Nicolas Almagro.
Dzumhur has been in Davis Cup action last week from which he should have gained some confidence after helping Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Turkey. The win over Almagro would have boosted that confidence, while his successes against Fabbiano in recent matches as well as the latter's struggles on clay should give him an additional edge. I think that will help Dzumhur come through this match with a 64, 64 win.
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Malek Jaziri: He reached a maiden Grand Slam Quarter Final in what was a career best season for Kevin Anderson, but he hasn't had much luck on the injury front in 2016. After winning 46 matches on the Tour last season, Anderson has won just 5 this season which began with a retirement in Australia that cost him the first quarter of the season.
Missing the early hard court season was a blow to Anderson whose game isn't really suited to the clay courts, while he had a difficult draw at Wimbledon that resulted in a First Round defeat. All of these factors have seen Anderson drop to Number 33 in the World Ranking, but a good few weeks will at least see him Seeded for the US Open where he was a Quarter Finalist last season.
Anderson doesn't have a really strong record in Washington, but he has been a Quarter Finalist on a couple of occasions and his head to head with Malek Jaziri should give him confidence. If Anderson is serving well he should have chances against the Jaziri serve as the latter is always liable to throw in a couple of loose games per set.
This is looking to be the best season Jaziri has produced on the Tour and he reached a career high Ranking just last week. He has played well on the hard courts at the Challenger level, but Jaziri has not been able to produce that regularly at the main Tour level and the big servers do tend to give him mental problems which he struggles to overcome.
Jaziri seems to feel the pressure from the scoreboard and his loose service games tend to cost him against those big servers and I think that might be the case here. I do think Anderson is short of confidence, but knowing his own success rate against this opponent should help his cause and he can win this one 75, 64.
Caroline Wozniacki - 2.5 games v Samantha Stosur: This is a very good looking match for a Second Round at an event like we have in Washington, but much of that is down to the drop in the World Ranking Caroline Wozniacki has suffered. The former World Number 1 is now Number 58 in the World Rankings and that has meant she has been given some tough early draws.
Wozniacki is going to have to overcome those if she is going to recover her Ranking but she will take heart from the fact she beat Samantha Stosur comfortably in their last match at Eastbourne last month. Knocking out the Number 1 Seed might open the draw for Wozniacki, but the Dane will be well aware that facing Stosur on a hard court is a totally different proposition than taking her on on a grass court.
That is clear from the fact that Stosur has won a US Open title in the past and she was a Semi Finalist in Washington last season. However it has to be said that Stosur's performances on the hard courts this season have been a little more inconsistent and Wozniacki will feel she can get enough balls back in play to the Stosur backhand to start to control rallies.
The Wozniacki serve is nothing like the one that Stosur can produce which has to be an issue on the faster surfaces, while Stosur has won three of their five hard court clashes. The last of those was won by Wozniacki though and I think she can battle her way through to a 67, 75, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Nikoloz Basilashvili - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniel Gimeno-Traver - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Damir Dzumhur - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-7, - 10.58 Units (18 Units Staked, - 58.78% Yield)
Tuesday, 19 July 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (July 19th)
There were plenty of matches being played on Monday but not a lot of angles that I wanted to be involved in, or not many I would have wanted to play with any confidence.
On Tuesday there are another huge round of matches from the events being played in Europe, but once again it looks a difficult day to make picks unless the schedule from the three events in North America are much more appealing.
Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: It was all about representing his country in the Davis Cup last week for Damir Dzumhur who will be playing at the Olympic Games for Bosnia and Herzegovina. It might be a little strange for him not to make the move to the hard courts in preparation for the Olympic Games, especially as Dzumhur has played well on that surface.
The feeling is that Dzumhur probably feels he doesn't have to have the same expenses staying in Europe playing on the clay rather than moving to the United States after playing on Sunday. He will also have to be respected on this surface considering some of his performances on the clay earlier this season, but some of the losses show the limitations he has.
Without a big serve, Dzumhur simply doesn't win a lot of points easily and that is an area Nicolas Almagro should have an edge. However the Spaniard is not as consistent as he used to be, even on the clay courts, and that was shown in his defeat to Paul-Henri Mathieu last week in Hamburg.
However Almagro dominated that match and should really have got it done against the veteran Frenchman. His best results still come on the clay and having a little more power behind the groundstrokes should help Almagro eventually come through 46, 63, 63.
Albert Montanes - 1.5 games v Gerald Melzer: Albert Montanes is a veteran of the Tour these days and his best results do come on the Challenger circuit, but the clay remains his favourite surface and he has performed well on the main Tour when getting into those draws.
There has been one Semi Final and a run to the Last 16 in another tournament this season and Montanes is going up against an opponent who spends the vast majority of his time in draws outside of the main Tour. Gerald Melzer is going to have the support of the home crowd, but he is yet to win a match on the main Tour this season and is 0-3 on the clay.
However Melzer has to be respected for the results he has achieved at the lower level which makes him a threat to Montanes. Both players will believe this is the perfect First Round match for them as they will be accustomed to the level of tennis they will face, but Montanes holds the slight edge for me.
The lefty serve and the fact that Melzer has won a couple of titles in Challenger events on the clay makes him a danger. It has to be noted that those title wins came very early in 2016 and recent form has not been as strong and I think Montanes will be able to hold a narrow edge in the extended rallies which can help him come through in three sets.
Julia Goerges - 2.5 games v Polona Hercog: Julia Goerge was defeated early in Gstaad last week but she wasn't helped by the poor weather which meant playing back to back matches in the same day while her opponent was well rested. The performance in the First Round was encouraging, but Goerges has to find a little more consistency to get her moving back up the World Ranking.
This week she goes to Bastad and will be expected to beat Polona Hercog even though the latter reached the Quarter Final in Bucharest last week. However it was Goerges who got the better of Hercog when these players met on the clay in Rome earlier this year and she will feel she holds the power advantage in this one.
The question mark around the Goerges game is always about how well she is going to serve on a given day and whether she can get a grip on the unforced errors she is likely to make. The clay courts should also give the German the advantage in this one with Hercog struggling outside of her solid run in Bucharest, although it looks like she simply might have a liking for that tournament having reached the Semi Final in 2015.
While Goerges might have some confidence issues, she still has to be in a stronger place than Hercog and I think that will lead her to a 64, 64 win in this First Round match.
Jelena Ostapenko - 3.5 games v Catherine Bellis: Jelena Ostapenko comes into the Stanford tournament as the Number 6 Seed and she will meet an American Wild Card, Catherine Bellis, in the First Round. This won't be an easy match for the Seeded player as Bellis has been playing in a number of hard court tournaments over the last few weeks compared with Ostapenko who will be coming in off the grass courts.
Bellis has played well too, albeit at a lower level than the tournament in Stanford will be. She has won a title and reached the Semi Final of another tournament on the hard courts which will have given her confidence, but none of those wins are against players that regularly play at this level as Ostapenko does.
They did meet last year in the US Open Qualifiers which resulted in a straight sets win for Ostapenko, but Bellis might have improved for her experiences over the last eleven months. However I still think she is growing and the young American might not be fully ready to beat someone with the potential Ostapenko has shown.
The one element that might be to Bellis' favour is that Ostapenko has not had a really strong year on the hard courts outside of her one deep run to the Final in Doha. Take that away and Ostapenko is just 1-3 on the hard courts and she has lost three straight matches on this surface. Both players should have their chances in this one too, but ultimately I think Ostapenko is in a stronger place in her career at this moment and can win 64, 64.
Eugenie Bouchard - 3.5 games v Camila Giorgi: There have been some signs that Eugenie Bouchard is beginning to rediscover some consistency in her game. After a breakthrough year on the Tour which featured a number of strong runs in the Grand Slam events, Bouchard has already doubled the number of wins on Tour than she achieved in 2015.
There is still room for improvement as she begins moving back towards the top 32 in the World Rankings which will have her Seeded for the US Open. A strong run in Washington will give her a chance to do that and the Canadian has put her best results together on the hard courts this season.
Bouchard has reached a couple of Finals on hard courts in 2016 without bringing a title home, but she should be confident she can beat an inconsistent Camila Giorgi who had a poor grass court season. The last two matches between these players have resulted in a couple of wins for Bouchard including in straight sets in Hobart earlier this season.
Giorgi has had some tough draws on the hard courts this season, but even then she is only 14-18 over the last couple of years. If she serves as well as she can, Giorgi will be a big threat to Bouchard, but the latter should have enough success against that shot to extract errors from the Italian's game.
Both players should earn their break point chances, but I think Bouchard will be a little more solid at the big moments considering the recent form of both players. The hard courts should be much more to Bouchard's liking and I like her to come through 75, 64.
Donald Young - 3.5 games v Ernesto Escobedo: These days Donald Young is no longer the upcoming star of American's tennis, but instead a veteran of the Tour who has not achieved the stardom that many expected for him. He is a solid player who can put together really good tournaments, but Young is also capable of throwing in a terrible match against any player he faces, even those he would usually be expected to beat.
Young is coming off the grass courts where he reached the Quarter Final last week in Newport, and that is where Ernesto Escobedo will look to take advantage with his knowledge of the conditions here.
Escobedo has come through two Qualifiers without dropping a set but he is still trying to find his way on the professional circuit. This will be the first match he has played on the hard courts in a main ATP Tour event and Escobedo will have to improve his performances to challenge players at this level with his results on the hard courts at Challenger and Future level a little inconsistent.
A player like Young should be able to expose the inconsistencies as long as he is not giving up a boatload of unforced errors and I think the older American will find his way to break point opportunities. It might take a couple of twists and turns to get to the end, but Young should use all of his experience to help him through to a 64, 64 win in this one.
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Daniel Evans: Last week saw Daniel Evans pull out of the Davis Cup tie for Great Britain with a shoulder issue, but he looked very good in the First Round when dismissing Benjamin Becker very comfortably. Things should be tougher in the Second Round in Washington when Evans faces Grigor Dimitrov, although the latter has been having trouble getting out of a slump in form which has lasted at least twelve months.
That has seen the Dimitrov World Ranking drop to 40 and he is coming off underwhelming clay and grass court season. Being back on the hard courts will suit the Bulgarian as 14 of his 20 wins in 2016 have come on the surface and the next few weeks will be important for Dimitrov as he doesn't have a lot of points to defend and can start moving the right way in the World Rankings.
Dimitrov can't underestimate Evans having played a tight three setter against him on the grass courts a few seasons ago. However he will feel he can get into the Evans service games which will give Dimitrov a chance to dominate the rallies when having the chance to play first strike tennis, although the lack of confidence means unforced errors are likely to be flowing at times too.
I do think Dimitrov has the edge when it comes to the serve and the general power off the ground. A lot of this match is going to do with how Dimitrov copes mentally through his recent form, but I think the hard courts will suit him. Evans had a very strong run on the Challenger Tour at this time last year, but this is a different level for him and I think Dimitrov is able to come through with a 63, 64 win.
Steve Johnson - 2.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: This is a career high Ranking for Steve Johnson after a very successful run on the grass courts over the last month, but he will be looking to kick on back on the North American hard courts. This should be a really strong time of the year for Johnson and he should turn around what has been an inconsistent season on the surface up to now because of the increase in confidence.
He will need all of that confidence against Adrian Mannarino who has the tendency to make players perform at a lower level than they have been with his ability to get plenty of balls back in play. The Mannarino service is still a weakness which can be exploited on the faster surfaces but he has had some decent results on the hard courts which includes beating Sam Querrey.
On the other hand, Mannarino did go 1-4 in North America on the hard courts at this time last year and he was 4-3 the year before which suggests it might not be his favoured time of the year. His lefty serve can cause some problems, but Johnson has to believe he can get plenty of balls back and pressure Mannarino with his serve if he is getting plenty of firsts in play.
Their two previous matches have both gone the distance with one win apiece, the most recent coming just last month when Johnson beat Mannarino at Queens. The underdog has won both matches which might concern me a little, but I am looking for Johnson to frank his win with another here and move past Mannarino 63, 36, 63.
MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Albert Montanes - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Donald Young - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)
On Tuesday there are another huge round of matches from the events being played in Europe, but once again it looks a difficult day to make picks unless the schedule from the three events in North America are much more appealing.
Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: It was all about representing his country in the Davis Cup last week for Damir Dzumhur who will be playing at the Olympic Games for Bosnia and Herzegovina. It might be a little strange for him not to make the move to the hard courts in preparation for the Olympic Games, especially as Dzumhur has played well on that surface.
The feeling is that Dzumhur probably feels he doesn't have to have the same expenses staying in Europe playing on the clay rather than moving to the United States after playing on Sunday. He will also have to be respected on this surface considering some of his performances on the clay earlier this season, but some of the losses show the limitations he has.
Without a big serve, Dzumhur simply doesn't win a lot of points easily and that is an area Nicolas Almagro should have an edge. However the Spaniard is not as consistent as he used to be, even on the clay courts, and that was shown in his defeat to Paul-Henri Mathieu last week in Hamburg.
However Almagro dominated that match and should really have got it done against the veteran Frenchman. His best results still come on the clay and having a little more power behind the groundstrokes should help Almagro eventually come through 46, 63, 63.
Albert Montanes - 1.5 games v Gerald Melzer: Albert Montanes is a veteran of the Tour these days and his best results do come on the Challenger circuit, but the clay remains his favourite surface and he has performed well on the main Tour when getting into those draws.
There has been one Semi Final and a run to the Last 16 in another tournament this season and Montanes is going up against an opponent who spends the vast majority of his time in draws outside of the main Tour. Gerald Melzer is going to have the support of the home crowd, but he is yet to win a match on the main Tour this season and is 0-3 on the clay.
However Melzer has to be respected for the results he has achieved at the lower level which makes him a threat to Montanes. Both players will believe this is the perfect First Round match for them as they will be accustomed to the level of tennis they will face, but Montanes holds the slight edge for me.
The lefty serve and the fact that Melzer has won a couple of titles in Challenger events on the clay makes him a danger. It has to be noted that those title wins came very early in 2016 and recent form has not been as strong and I think Montanes will be able to hold a narrow edge in the extended rallies which can help him come through in three sets.
Julia Goerges - 2.5 games v Polona Hercog: Julia Goerge was defeated early in Gstaad last week but she wasn't helped by the poor weather which meant playing back to back matches in the same day while her opponent was well rested. The performance in the First Round was encouraging, but Goerges has to find a little more consistency to get her moving back up the World Ranking.
This week she goes to Bastad and will be expected to beat Polona Hercog even though the latter reached the Quarter Final in Bucharest last week. However it was Goerges who got the better of Hercog when these players met on the clay in Rome earlier this year and she will feel she holds the power advantage in this one.
The question mark around the Goerges game is always about how well she is going to serve on a given day and whether she can get a grip on the unforced errors she is likely to make. The clay courts should also give the German the advantage in this one with Hercog struggling outside of her solid run in Bucharest, although it looks like she simply might have a liking for that tournament having reached the Semi Final in 2015.
While Goerges might have some confidence issues, she still has to be in a stronger place than Hercog and I think that will lead her to a 64, 64 win in this First Round match.
Jelena Ostapenko - 3.5 games v Catherine Bellis: Jelena Ostapenko comes into the Stanford tournament as the Number 6 Seed and she will meet an American Wild Card, Catherine Bellis, in the First Round. This won't be an easy match for the Seeded player as Bellis has been playing in a number of hard court tournaments over the last few weeks compared with Ostapenko who will be coming in off the grass courts.
Bellis has played well too, albeit at a lower level than the tournament in Stanford will be. She has won a title and reached the Semi Final of another tournament on the hard courts which will have given her confidence, but none of those wins are against players that regularly play at this level as Ostapenko does.
They did meet last year in the US Open Qualifiers which resulted in a straight sets win for Ostapenko, but Bellis might have improved for her experiences over the last eleven months. However I still think she is growing and the young American might not be fully ready to beat someone with the potential Ostapenko has shown.
The one element that might be to Bellis' favour is that Ostapenko has not had a really strong year on the hard courts outside of her one deep run to the Final in Doha. Take that away and Ostapenko is just 1-3 on the hard courts and she has lost three straight matches on this surface. Both players should have their chances in this one too, but ultimately I think Ostapenko is in a stronger place in her career at this moment and can win 64, 64.
Eugenie Bouchard - 3.5 games v Camila Giorgi: There have been some signs that Eugenie Bouchard is beginning to rediscover some consistency in her game. After a breakthrough year on the Tour which featured a number of strong runs in the Grand Slam events, Bouchard has already doubled the number of wins on Tour than she achieved in 2015.
There is still room for improvement as she begins moving back towards the top 32 in the World Rankings which will have her Seeded for the US Open. A strong run in Washington will give her a chance to do that and the Canadian has put her best results together on the hard courts this season.
Bouchard has reached a couple of Finals on hard courts in 2016 without bringing a title home, but she should be confident she can beat an inconsistent Camila Giorgi who had a poor grass court season. The last two matches between these players have resulted in a couple of wins for Bouchard including in straight sets in Hobart earlier this season.
Giorgi has had some tough draws on the hard courts this season, but even then she is only 14-18 over the last couple of years. If she serves as well as she can, Giorgi will be a big threat to Bouchard, but the latter should have enough success against that shot to extract errors from the Italian's game.
Both players should earn their break point chances, but I think Bouchard will be a little more solid at the big moments considering the recent form of both players. The hard courts should be much more to Bouchard's liking and I like her to come through 75, 64.
Donald Young - 3.5 games v Ernesto Escobedo: These days Donald Young is no longer the upcoming star of American's tennis, but instead a veteran of the Tour who has not achieved the stardom that many expected for him. He is a solid player who can put together really good tournaments, but Young is also capable of throwing in a terrible match against any player he faces, even those he would usually be expected to beat.
Young is coming off the grass courts where he reached the Quarter Final last week in Newport, and that is where Ernesto Escobedo will look to take advantage with his knowledge of the conditions here.
Escobedo has come through two Qualifiers without dropping a set but he is still trying to find his way on the professional circuit. This will be the first match he has played on the hard courts in a main ATP Tour event and Escobedo will have to improve his performances to challenge players at this level with his results on the hard courts at Challenger and Future level a little inconsistent.
A player like Young should be able to expose the inconsistencies as long as he is not giving up a boatload of unforced errors and I think the older American will find his way to break point opportunities. It might take a couple of twists and turns to get to the end, but Young should use all of his experience to help him through to a 64, 64 win in this one.
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Daniel Evans: Last week saw Daniel Evans pull out of the Davis Cup tie for Great Britain with a shoulder issue, but he looked very good in the First Round when dismissing Benjamin Becker very comfortably. Things should be tougher in the Second Round in Washington when Evans faces Grigor Dimitrov, although the latter has been having trouble getting out of a slump in form which has lasted at least twelve months.
That has seen the Dimitrov World Ranking drop to 40 and he is coming off underwhelming clay and grass court season. Being back on the hard courts will suit the Bulgarian as 14 of his 20 wins in 2016 have come on the surface and the next few weeks will be important for Dimitrov as he doesn't have a lot of points to defend and can start moving the right way in the World Rankings.
Dimitrov can't underestimate Evans having played a tight three setter against him on the grass courts a few seasons ago. However he will feel he can get into the Evans service games which will give Dimitrov a chance to dominate the rallies when having the chance to play first strike tennis, although the lack of confidence means unforced errors are likely to be flowing at times too.
I do think Dimitrov has the edge when it comes to the serve and the general power off the ground. A lot of this match is going to do with how Dimitrov copes mentally through his recent form, but I think the hard courts will suit him. Evans had a very strong run on the Challenger Tour at this time last year, but this is a different level for him and I think Dimitrov is able to come through with a 63, 64 win.
Steve Johnson - 2.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: This is a career high Ranking for Steve Johnson after a very successful run on the grass courts over the last month, but he will be looking to kick on back on the North American hard courts. This should be a really strong time of the year for Johnson and he should turn around what has been an inconsistent season on the surface up to now because of the increase in confidence.
He will need all of that confidence against Adrian Mannarino who has the tendency to make players perform at a lower level than they have been with his ability to get plenty of balls back in play. The Mannarino service is still a weakness which can be exploited on the faster surfaces but he has had some decent results on the hard courts which includes beating Sam Querrey.
On the other hand, Mannarino did go 1-4 in North America on the hard courts at this time last year and he was 4-3 the year before which suggests it might not be his favoured time of the year. His lefty serve can cause some problems, but Johnson has to believe he can get plenty of balls back and pressure Mannarino with his serve if he is getting plenty of firsts in play.
Their two previous matches have both gone the distance with one win apiece, the most recent coming just last month when Johnson beat Mannarino at Queens. The underdog has won both matches which might concern me a little, but I am looking for Johnson to frank his win with another here and move past Mannarino 63, 36, 63.
MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Albert Montanes - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Donald Young - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)
Monday, 18 July 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (July 18th)
The change in the summer calendar on the ATP Tour to accommodate the Olympic Games means this week is another loaded with tournaments from across the globe. In total there are seven different draws taking place this week, even more than there were last week, with organisers making sure their event is not dropped from the calendar.
That means we get some weaker draws too as most of the top names will look to wait until the big event in Canada begins later this month, while those that are playing this week are spread across the various events.
It does give the chance to players who might not usually get into a main draw of a ATP Tour event, but the quality of that event is clearly lessened at the same time.
Last week was a solid one keeping the picks totals moving in a positive direction after a tough start to the season. A third winning week will be most welcome as we move on to the first of the two Masters events being played on the hard courts in preparation for the US Open. The first of those begins on Monday in Canada which will be the sole event taking place next week, but first we have to get through plenty of tennis this week.
Mischa Zverev + 1.5 Games v Facundo Bagnis: It wasn't the best home tournament for Mischa Zverev last week in Hamburg as he was beaten in the First Round by a Qualifier, but that was a really close match. A similar performance would give him a chance to spring a surprise against Facundo Bagnis who reached the Quarter Final in Bastad, especially if his lefty serve gives the Argentinian as many problems as Fernando Verdasco's did last week.
My concern in backing Zverev has to be the fact he has won just one main Tour clay court match since 2011 and spends the majority of his time in Challenger level events these days. The German did win one of those Challenger events on this surface though and he is facing an opponent who generally plays at that level himself, although Bagnis has at least put together some wins at the main Tour level.
Bagnis has won three titles at the Challenger level on clay this season and he has shown he can win matches at the higher level on the red dirt as we only need to look at Bastad last week to see that.
This has all the hallmarks of being a very close match and this isn't a lot of games to be given, but I think they could be enough to keep the older player competitive. Zverev did beat Bagnis in a Challenger event just a couple of weeks ago in what was a match decided by a couple of points here and there. I expect this match to be similar and I am looking for Zverev to keep things close even if he does end up losing the match.
Alex Kuznetsov + 3.5 games v Bjorn Fratangelo: His best days are likely behind him and Alex Kuznetsov is Ranked outside the top 300 in the World Rankings, but I still feel he might be under-rated in this First Round match in Washington. Kuznetsov has come through two Qualifiers without dropping a set and he has a more wins in Challenger events/Qualifiers than he managed in the whole of 2015 already.
A couple of strong runs on the hard courts over the last month will have improved his confidence and I don't think Kuznetsov will be intimidated by Bjorn Fratangelo having played three competitive matches against him in 2015.
The younger American reached the top 100 in the World Rankings last month and he has been an improving player on the Tour. Anyone who can beat Novak Djokovic 62 in a set of tennis, as Fratangelo did in Indian Wells, has to be respected, but he does remain inconsistent on the hard courts and that is where Kuznetsov has to feel he will have his chances.
To me this looks a match where Fratangelo is being asked to cover too many games. It was only last week he was beaten outright by a player Ranked lower than Kuznetsov and the latter this week has already put together two wins in Washington to boost confidence. Their previous matches have generally been very competitive and I don't think there is a lot between them even if you consider the 200 places in the World Ranking. All in all I think Kuznetsov will keep this competitive and will take the games on offer.
MY PICKS: Mischa Zverev + 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alex Kuznetsov + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
That means we get some weaker draws too as most of the top names will look to wait until the big event in Canada begins later this month, while those that are playing this week are spread across the various events.
It does give the chance to players who might not usually get into a main draw of a ATP Tour event, but the quality of that event is clearly lessened at the same time.
Last week was a solid one keeping the picks totals moving in a positive direction after a tough start to the season. A third winning week will be most welcome as we move on to the first of the two Masters events being played on the hard courts in preparation for the US Open. The first of those begins on Monday in Canada which will be the sole event taking place next week, but first we have to get through plenty of tennis this week.
Mischa Zverev + 1.5 Games v Facundo Bagnis: It wasn't the best home tournament for Mischa Zverev last week in Hamburg as he was beaten in the First Round by a Qualifier, but that was a really close match. A similar performance would give him a chance to spring a surprise against Facundo Bagnis who reached the Quarter Final in Bastad, especially if his lefty serve gives the Argentinian as many problems as Fernando Verdasco's did last week.
My concern in backing Zverev has to be the fact he has won just one main Tour clay court match since 2011 and spends the majority of his time in Challenger level events these days. The German did win one of those Challenger events on this surface though and he is facing an opponent who generally plays at that level himself, although Bagnis has at least put together some wins at the main Tour level.
Bagnis has won three titles at the Challenger level on clay this season and he has shown he can win matches at the higher level on the red dirt as we only need to look at Bastad last week to see that.
This has all the hallmarks of being a very close match and this isn't a lot of games to be given, but I think they could be enough to keep the older player competitive. Zverev did beat Bagnis in a Challenger event just a couple of weeks ago in what was a match decided by a couple of points here and there. I expect this match to be similar and I am looking for Zverev to keep things close even if he does end up losing the match.
Alex Kuznetsov + 3.5 games v Bjorn Fratangelo: His best days are likely behind him and Alex Kuznetsov is Ranked outside the top 300 in the World Rankings, but I still feel he might be under-rated in this First Round match in Washington. Kuznetsov has come through two Qualifiers without dropping a set and he has a more wins in Challenger events/Qualifiers than he managed in the whole of 2015 already.
A couple of strong runs on the hard courts over the last month will have improved his confidence and I don't think Kuznetsov will be intimidated by Bjorn Fratangelo having played three competitive matches against him in 2015.
The younger American reached the top 100 in the World Rankings last month and he has been an improving player on the Tour. Anyone who can beat Novak Djokovic 62 in a set of tennis, as Fratangelo did in Indian Wells, has to be respected, but he does remain inconsistent on the hard courts and that is where Kuznetsov has to feel he will have his chances.
To me this looks a match where Fratangelo is being asked to cover too many games. It was only last week he was beaten outright by a player Ranked lower than Kuznetsov and the latter this week has already put together two wins in Washington to boost confidence. Their previous matches have generally been very competitive and I don't think there is a lot between them even if you consider the 200 places in the World Ranking. All in all I think Kuznetsov will keep this competitive and will take the games on offer.
MY PICKS: Mischa Zverev + 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alex Kuznetsov + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Season 2016: - 31.68 Units (1123 Units Staked, - 2.82% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
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