It is Quarter Final time at all the tournaments being played this week in what has been a disappointing one on a personal level.
There haven't really been any big stories from the week so far, although there are some very interesting matches in prospect, particularly in the WTA event being held in Doha.
Hopefully the final couple of days will turn out a little more productive than the first few days have been.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 3.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: I saw some of the highlights from Caroline Wozniacki's win over Mona Barthel yesterday, but I am not convinced that the Dane is ready to take out a player with as much consistency as Agnieszka Radwanska.
Wozniacki does have the 5-3 head to head record lead, but I am not that bothered by that considering Radwanska has won their two most recent matches, both of those wins coming on hard courts.
The Wozniacki serve remains a big weakness and we are going to see some long rallies and long games and it will come down to whether Radwanska can convert all the big points she plays- to cover this spread, I'll need her to win 60% of the break points whether she is serving or returning. That rate should enable the Pole not to drop a set and possibly come through with a similar scoreline to the one in Tokyo at the back end of last season which saw Radwanska win 6-3, 6-4.
Players like Wozniacki are generally effected by the big hitters and that won't be the case in this one- however, I still like Radwanska's consistency to be a little too good for the former World Number 1.
Grigor Dimitrov v Marcos Baghdatis: Yesterday I picked Marcos Baghdatis to keep things close against Richard Gasquet but also admitted that I couldn't trust the Cypriot to complete the job in their Second Round match. However, Gasquet seemed almost disinterested, likely the result of mental tiredness, and Baghdatis finished a comfortable winner.
Now he meets Grigor Dimitrov, a player that has already handed Baghdatis a defeat earlier this season and I think the talented Bulgarian can back that up with another win over his more experienced opponent.
I believe Dimitrov will be get a higher first serve percentage in play and that could make all the difference with a few more cheap points ending his way. Marcos Baghdatis is also known for throwing in a number of second serves and that is an area where Dimitrov may end up making hay in this match.
They are closely matched, there is no doubt about that, but I just feel Dimitrov is on the up this season and will be able to book his place in another Semi Final in 2013.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Jarkko Nieminen: Juan Martin Del Potro had a solid win over Ernests Gulbis to book this Quarter Final match with Jarkko Nieminen and I expect Del Potro will be able to extend his 4-0 head to head record against the Finn in this one.
The problem for Nieminen is that he is likely going to be under pressure in a bunch of games in this one and is likely to be on the back foot, defending the big shots that Del Potro will be throwing at him.
While the Argentine can rely on his big first serve to set his attack up, Nieminen doesn't have a serve that will win a lot of free points, and his second serve is going to give Del Potro the chance to attack first in a lot of those rallies.
It doesn't surprise me at all that Del Potro has generally won their matches comfortably and I wouldn't be at all surprised if this turns out to be a fairly routine win for him again.
Milos Raonic - 3.5 games v Denis Istomin: At the start of the week, I mentioned that Milos Raonic seems very comfortable in the San Jose surroundings and he has made his way into the Quarter Final thanks to a comfortable win over Michael Russell last night.
Now he meets Denis Istomin, the player he beat in the Final last season and I think Raonic will be a little too strong in this one too.
In all honesty, Istomin is one of the hardest players to get a read on as sometimes I have seen him play and thought there is a lot of talent there, other times he looks a little better than a decent club player. The problem is that he is going to have a hard time getting involved in the Raonic serve and that will only mean more pressure on his own serve and having to keep holding.
That mental toll saw him collapse in the second set they played in the Final last season and I think something similar will happen in this one, although we may not even see a tie-break. I like the Canadian to come through 7-5, 6-4
MY PICKS: Agnieszka Radwanska - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-7, - 5.36 Units (21 Units Staked, - 25.52% Yield)
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NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4 (Monday 18th May-Monday 25th May)
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Friday, 15 February 2013
Thursday, 14 February 2013
Tennis Picks (February 14th)
The picks from the tennis tournaments will come out in staggered periods simply because of the time zone differences this week.
It was a bit of a tough time over the last 36 hours as Fernando Verdasco went out to destroy one of the outright picks I made this week. The other factor was Ivo Karlovic having 2 match points in the final tie-break before losing 4 points in a row to lose the match, meaning yesterday was another day when the thread suffered a loss.
Hopefully today will prove to be a stronger day.
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Richard Gasquet has moved on to a 15-1 record to open 2013 and he has two tournament wins to his name, but I think he has played a lot of tennis in quick succession and could be found out by Marcos Baghdatis.
The only reason I am recommending taking the games in this one is because I don't fully trust Baghdatis to complete the job in full as he has already had some bad defeats this season and is not the player that reached the Australian Open Final.
However, Baghdatis does have a 2-0 head to head record against Gasquet, and the latter had to play a lot of three set matches last week to progress to the win in Montpellier and I do think Baghdatis is capable of winning a set and that could give him a good chance of covering the spread even if he doesn't win the match.
Gasquet does have 7 wins in a row so I don't have too many worries about his confidence, but a lot of tennis in a short amount of time does catch up with players and that could be the case here.
Juan Monaco - 3.5 games v Simone Bolelli: Juan Monaco suffered a bad loss in Vina Del Mar last week to Guillermo Rufin, but I think he can bounce back and pull out a victory in this one against his Italian opponent Simone Bolelli.
Bolelli surprised Tommy Robredo in the last Round, but he hasn't had too much success on the main ATP circuit over the last couple of seasons and he is playing an opponent in Juan Monaco who should be a little too consistent overall in this one.
It also has to be remembered that Monaco had a very effective season on the clay courts last season and I am going to suggest last week was just a blip and he will come out with a much more positive match this time.
I expect Monaco to win this match with a break in each set, perhaps 7-5, 6-3.
MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 Games @ 1.97 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-6, - 5.30 Units (17 Units Staked, - 31.28% Yield)
It was a bit of a tough time over the last 36 hours as Fernando Verdasco went out to destroy one of the outright picks I made this week. The other factor was Ivo Karlovic having 2 match points in the final tie-break before losing 4 points in a row to lose the match, meaning yesterday was another day when the thread suffered a loss.
Hopefully today will prove to be a stronger day.
Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Richard Gasquet has moved on to a 15-1 record to open 2013 and he has two tournament wins to his name, but I think he has played a lot of tennis in quick succession and could be found out by Marcos Baghdatis.
The only reason I am recommending taking the games in this one is because I don't fully trust Baghdatis to complete the job in full as he has already had some bad defeats this season and is not the player that reached the Australian Open Final.
However, Baghdatis does have a 2-0 head to head record against Gasquet, and the latter had to play a lot of three set matches last week to progress to the win in Montpellier and I do think Baghdatis is capable of winning a set and that could give him a good chance of covering the spread even if he doesn't win the match.
Gasquet does have 7 wins in a row so I don't have too many worries about his confidence, but a lot of tennis in a short amount of time does catch up with players and that could be the case here.
Juan Monaco - 3.5 games v Simone Bolelli: Juan Monaco suffered a bad loss in Vina Del Mar last week to Guillermo Rufin, but I think he can bounce back and pull out a victory in this one against his Italian opponent Simone Bolelli.
Bolelli surprised Tommy Robredo in the last Round, but he hasn't had too much success on the main ATP circuit over the last couple of seasons and he is playing an opponent in Juan Monaco who should be a little too consistent overall in this one.
It also has to be remembered that Monaco had a very effective season on the clay courts last season and I am going to suggest last week was just a blip and he will come out with a much more positive match this time.
I expect Monaco to win this match with a break in each set, perhaps 7-5, 6-3.
MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis + 3.5 Games @ 1.97 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-6, - 5.30 Units (17 Units Staked, - 31.28% Yield)
Wednesday, 13 February 2013
Tennis Picks (February 13th)
It was a disappointing start to the week with Fabio Fognini blowing a winning position and Jelena Jankovic just not turning up her match with Monica Niculescu. However, it wasn't all bad with Juan Martin Del Potro dismissing the challenge of Gael Monfils to keep the outright picks intact, although Fernando Verdasco will be involved in the late match in San Jose.
Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Grega Zemlja: It is always difficult to know how exactly the top players will begin tournaments as this is the time when they are all about moving through to the event and picking up form as they go along.
However, I like Roger Federer in this one to cover the fairly big spread because Grega Zemlja has not been in great form and was comfortably seen off by Marin Cilic last week in Zagreb. Zemlja had some sort of illness to start the 2013 season and he was comfortably beaten by Lukasz Kubot in a Davis Cup tie on these courts and then won just 5 games against Cilic last week.
I don't want to under-estimate Zemjla as he did reach the Final in Vienna on an indoor hard court before finding Juan Martin Del Potro too good for him, but I am not sure he is at peak fitness and that may lead to his downfall in this one.
Federer remains one of the better indoor hard court players in the World and I think he will make a better start to the Rotterdam tournament than he did last season in a tough straight sets win over Nicolas Mahut.
Lucie Safarova v Christine McHale: This has been virtually set as a pick 'em contest and I just believe that Lucie Safarova, despite being a total head case at times, is in the better form on the tennis court than Christine McHale at this moment.
McHale and Safarova both reached the Quarter Final at this tournament last season, but McHale has been on a long run where she has barely won a match since the US Open back in September.
While the American has snapped that poor sequence of results with 2 wins from her last 3 matches, I think Safarova can put some pressure on her and only want a small interest in the Czech player as I don't completely trust her against an opponent that beat her comfortably in their one single professional match.
Petra Kvitova v Ekaterina Makarova: Petra Kvitova has really stumbled since winning Wimbledon in 2011, but I am surprised she is only considered a pick 'em to beat Ekaterina Makarova even if they do have a 1-1 head to head record.
Makarova was a solid hard court player last season and she did reach the Quarter Final at the Australian Open this season, but I am still not convinced she has the consistency to beat someone like Kvitova.
It has been a tough opening to 2013 for Kvitova, I will concede that, but she won a couple of Davis Cup matches last week, including against Sam Stosur and that may give the Czech player enough belief to knock off Makarova here.
There is every chance this one could go three tough sets, but I believe Kvitova will turn her form around in the coming weeks and will win this match.
Jeremy Chardy - 4.5 games v Martin Alund: Martin Alund has got into this tournament as a 'lucky loser' and he did win his first ever match in an ATP main tour tournament when taking over Ricardo Mello in the First Round.
However, that could be as far as it goes for a player that favours the clay courts but has spent his career on the Challenger circuit. He now also faces a player in Jeremy Chardy who has opened 2013 in good form and also one that has won the most of his matches over the last couple of seasons on the clay courts.
Chardy reached the Quarter Final last week in Chile and he should be a little too strong in most aspects of the match to come through with a 6-4, 6-3 win.
Ivo Karlovic v Steve Johnson: I don't like under-estimating players who are playing in their home country as Steve Johnson is doing in San Jose, but I am expecting Ivo Karlovic to have a little too much pressure on his with his serve and knock him off here.
Karlovic has not had the best start to 2013 but showed some signs in Zagreb of recovery, and he is facing an opponent that has really struggled to turn his form from Challengers onto the Main Tour.
Johnson is probably best known for pushing Nicolas Almagro to five sets at the Australian Open and he did also reach the Third Round at the US Open last season, but Steve Darcis beat him in two tie-breaks here last season and the likes of Bobby Reynolds have knocked him off in the last couple of weeks on this surface.
It will need tie-breaks, but the Karlovic serve should be able to make the difference and bring in the win.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Petra Kvitova @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 4.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-3, - 4 Units (8 Units Staked, - 50% Yield)
Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Grega Zemlja: It is always difficult to know how exactly the top players will begin tournaments as this is the time when they are all about moving through to the event and picking up form as they go along.
However, I like Roger Federer in this one to cover the fairly big spread because Grega Zemlja has not been in great form and was comfortably seen off by Marin Cilic last week in Zagreb. Zemlja had some sort of illness to start the 2013 season and he was comfortably beaten by Lukasz Kubot in a Davis Cup tie on these courts and then won just 5 games against Cilic last week.
I don't want to under-estimate Zemjla as he did reach the Final in Vienna on an indoor hard court before finding Juan Martin Del Potro too good for him, but I am not sure he is at peak fitness and that may lead to his downfall in this one.
Federer remains one of the better indoor hard court players in the World and I think he will make a better start to the Rotterdam tournament than he did last season in a tough straight sets win over Nicolas Mahut.
Lucie Safarova v Christine McHale: This has been virtually set as a pick 'em contest and I just believe that Lucie Safarova, despite being a total head case at times, is in the better form on the tennis court than Christine McHale at this moment.
McHale and Safarova both reached the Quarter Final at this tournament last season, but McHale has been on a long run where she has barely won a match since the US Open back in September.
While the American has snapped that poor sequence of results with 2 wins from her last 3 matches, I think Safarova can put some pressure on her and only want a small interest in the Czech player as I don't completely trust her against an opponent that beat her comfortably in their one single professional match.
Petra Kvitova v Ekaterina Makarova: Petra Kvitova has really stumbled since winning Wimbledon in 2011, but I am surprised she is only considered a pick 'em to beat Ekaterina Makarova even if they do have a 1-1 head to head record.
Makarova was a solid hard court player last season and she did reach the Quarter Final at the Australian Open this season, but I am still not convinced she has the consistency to beat someone like Kvitova.
It has been a tough opening to 2013 for Kvitova, I will concede that, but she won a couple of Davis Cup matches last week, including against Sam Stosur and that may give the Czech player enough belief to knock off Makarova here.
There is every chance this one could go three tough sets, but I believe Kvitova will turn her form around in the coming weeks and will win this match.
Jeremy Chardy - 4.5 games v Martin Alund: Martin Alund has got into this tournament as a 'lucky loser' and he did win his first ever match in an ATP main tour tournament when taking over Ricardo Mello in the First Round.
However, that could be as far as it goes for a player that favours the clay courts but has spent his career on the Challenger circuit. He now also faces a player in Jeremy Chardy who has opened 2013 in good form and also one that has won the most of his matches over the last couple of seasons on the clay courts.
Chardy reached the Quarter Final last week in Chile and he should be a little too strong in most aspects of the match to come through with a 6-4, 6-3 win.
Ivo Karlovic v Steve Johnson: I don't like under-estimating players who are playing in their home country as Steve Johnson is doing in San Jose, but I am expecting Ivo Karlovic to have a little too much pressure on his with his serve and knock him off here.
Karlovic has not had the best start to 2013 but showed some signs in Zagreb of recovery, and he is facing an opponent that has really struggled to turn his form from Challengers onto the Main Tour.
Johnson is probably best known for pushing Nicolas Almagro to five sets at the Australian Open and he did also reach the Third Round at the US Open last season, but Steve Darcis beat him in two tie-breaks here last season and the likes of Bobby Reynolds have knocked him off in the last couple of weeks on this surface.
It will need tie-breaks, but the Karlovic serve should be able to make the difference and bring in the win.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Petra Kvitova @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 4.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-3, - 4 Units (8 Units Staked, - 50% Yield)
Tuesday, 12 February 2013
Midweek Football Picks (February 12-14)
There are a lot of people out there looking forward to Valentines Day this week on Thursday evening, but personally I haven't been able to think of anything but the Real Madrid-Manchester United game for weeks now.
That's right, the Champions League is back this week and I am sure UEFA couldn't have asked for a better game to shine a light on the competition than the two most famous clubs in World football.
I have also noticed it is an interesting time that a lot of people pick who they think will win the Champions League this season- I think it is dead right to say it is the most open competition for a few years with the likes of Barcelona, Real Madrid, Manchester United, Juventus, Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund all genuine contenders.
Personally I don't believe United are good enough, but if they can knock out Real Madrid then anything is possible. I have noticed that a lot of people have tipped up Bayern Munich and anyone who has read this blog over the last couple of years will know full well that they are the team I have admired most (not 'supported', I only support Manchester United).
Unsurprisingly, I also think Bayern are more than capable of going all the way this season as they continue to look the most balanced team, while there seems to have been an improvement in their defensive performances. The draw will play a big part in deciding who will get to Wembley with the path set through the Quarter Finals and Semi Finals after this Round, but if I was given a free £1000 and had to pick someone, I would back the Bavarians to go one step further than they did in 2010 and 2012.
The Champions League is actually played over a month with the Second Round games split into 4 games per week- at the same time, we will see the Europa League pick up from the last-32 stage of the competition and they will play through two Rounds to also reach the Quarter Final stage.
Celtic v Juventus Pick: Celtic have already overachieved by reaching the Second Round of the Champions League this season, especially from a Group containing Barcelona and Benfica, but they clearly want more and are not daunted by the prospect of facing Juventus.
Neil Lennon has the luxury of resting his entire team ahead of Champions League ties as Celtic are in a domestic League that has less competition than the majority of those in Europe after Rangers' demotion to the Third Division. It says it all when Celtic make wholesale changes yet are still good enough to win 1-3 away from home against the side that was 2nd as they did at Inverness this weekend.
Fans of the home side will have total belief they can upset the apple-cart again in this one after Celtic beat Barcelona here in the Groups, but they only managed a draw with Benfica and needed a late goal to beat Spartak Moscow so nothing is as clear cut as that.
They are also playing a significantly improved Juventus from the side that has most recently been involved in the Champions League. However, any odds on backers should look at the 1-1 draw the Italians managed in Nordsjaelland as a good reason why they might not be worth backing in this one at the price.
Then again, Juventus showed tremendous heart to earn a 2-2 draw at Chelsea despite being 2-0 down and also beat Shakhtar Donetsk 0-1 to finish top of the Group so do have the pedigree to come into a boisterous Celtic Park and get a result.
I just feel this is a game where both sides may end up being fairly satisfied with a draw as Celtic will feel they are still in with a chance of qualifying for the Quarter Finals and Juventus will feel they can complete the job in their new stadium in Turin. I can see this one finishing 1-1 so the draw could be the way to go.
Valencia v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: This looks like one of the ties that could really go either way as Valencia have the European pedigree, while Paris Saint-Germain have brought in a number of experienced players to help them make an impact in this competition as soon as possible.
I think the extra experience that Valencia have as a team will enable them to take a lead to Paris next month, although this should be a tight contest tonight. Valencia have a very strong home record in recent games in the Champions League and have gone 10 games unbeaten there since Manchester United won 0-1, while they also reached the Semi Final of the Europa League last season with 3 straight wins at the Mestalla before Atletico Madrid won here on their way to winning the trophy.
Paris Saint-Germain have only faced one team with the same kind of level of experience as Valencia in the competition this season and that was Porto. While PSG beat them at home, they did lost 1-0 in Portugal and I can see a similar result being recorded by Valencia in this one.
Real Madrid v Manchester United Pick: Let's not beat around the bush here- I am a proud Manchester United fan whose heart excepts them to win every single game they play and win convincingly... However, my head in this case has been screaming that this could be a bad day in the office for the Red Army as they descend on one of the toughest away European ties they could play.
Even though Barcelona have beaten United in two Finals in recent seasons, I always felt their style of football is a little easier to play against than the direct, pacy style that Real Madrid produce (easier for United and English teams in general rather than just plain easier).
It is that pace and direct style that I think will be too much for United in the Spanish capital- far too often this season I have seen our midfield not be in the correct position in games and unless United plan on loading that area and playing for a low scoring draw, that is an area that concerns me heavily.
Real are going to attack- anyone who points at the fact that City came away with an 'unfortunate' 3-2 loss should go back and watch how City were dominated and I then ask them not to be concerned. The likes of Sporting Braga, Cluj and Galatasaray have created enough chances against United this season, but they don't have Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema, Mezut Ozil or Gonzalo Higuain as players in prominent positions of their sides (well Galatasaray didn't when we played them).
We will have our chances out there to get on the front foot, but that may lead to counter attacking opportunities when Real Madrid are even more dangerous.
No matter which way I look at this game, I can't see anything but a fairly comfortable Real Madrid win and I hope I am completely wrong about my assessment of this game...
Since the draw came out, I have been convinced that Real Madrid are going to expose the short-comings that a lot of United fans know the team have, that lack of midfield control. Hopefully I am wrong, but I can't see anything but a Real win by at least a couple of goals.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Borussia Dortmund Pick: I won't write so much about this game, but I think Borussia Dortmund are worth backing for a small interest to take a lead back to Germany next month.
I am not happy that we have already seen two away wins in the first legs of the Second Round as this is not usually a Round when there are a lot of away wins. However, Dortmund are focusing on the Champions League fully with the Bundesliga likely gone, and they have the counter attacking ability to win here.
Dortmund were unlucky to only draw at Manchester City and Real Madrid with late goals stopping them winning both games, but Shakhtar Donetsk did lose to Juventus here. The other news is their star player Willian has moved on and I just fancy the German side to nick a win here.
I haven't got time to put down my full reasons for the Europa League picks I am making, but those can be seen below.
MY PICKS: Celtic-Juventus Draw @ 3.60 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Valencia @ 2.50 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.45 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund @ 2.88 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Zenit St Petersburg @ 2.50 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Sparta Prague-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Newcastle United @ 2.30 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
February Update: 5-8, - 1.20 Units (21 Units Staked, - 5.71% Yield)
January Final: 10-22, - 10.89 Units (45 Units Staked, - 24.2% Yield)
December Final: 17-24-1, - 0.83 Units (53 Units Staked, - 0.02 % Yield)
November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 7.95 Units (248 Units Staked, + 3.21 % Yield)
That's right, the Champions League is back this week and I am sure UEFA couldn't have asked for a better game to shine a light on the competition than the two most famous clubs in World football.
I have also noticed it is an interesting time that a lot of people pick who they think will win the Champions League this season- I think it is dead right to say it is the most open competition for a few years with the likes of Barcelona, Real Madrid, Manchester United, Juventus, Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund all genuine contenders.
Personally I don't believe United are good enough, but if they can knock out Real Madrid then anything is possible. I have noticed that a lot of people have tipped up Bayern Munich and anyone who has read this blog over the last couple of years will know full well that they are the team I have admired most (not 'supported', I only support Manchester United).
Unsurprisingly, I also think Bayern are more than capable of going all the way this season as they continue to look the most balanced team, while there seems to have been an improvement in their defensive performances. The draw will play a big part in deciding who will get to Wembley with the path set through the Quarter Finals and Semi Finals after this Round, but if I was given a free £1000 and had to pick someone, I would back the Bavarians to go one step further than they did in 2010 and 2012.
The Champions League is actually played over a month with the Second Round games split into 4 games per week- at the same time, we will see the Europa League pick up from the last-32 stage of the competition and they will play through two Rounds to also reach the Quarter Final stage.
Celtic v Juventus Pick: Celtic have already overachieved by reaching the Second Round of the Champions League this season, especially from a Group containing Barcelona and Benfica, but they clearly want more and are not daunted by the prospect of facing Juventus.
Neil Lennon has the luxury of resting his entire team ahead of Champions League ties as Celtic are in a domestic League that has less competition than the majority of those in Europe after Rangers' demotion to the Third Division. It says it all when Celtic make wholesale changes yet are still good enough to win 1-3 away from home against the side that was 2nd as they did at Inverness this weekend.
Fans of the home side will have total belief they can upset the apple-cart again in this one after Celtic beat Barcelona here in the Groups, but they only managed a draw with Benfica and needed a late goal to beat Spartak Moscow so nothing is as clear cut as that.
They are also playing a significantly improved Juventus from the side that has most recently been involved in the Champions League. However, any odds on backers should look at the 1-1 draw the Italians managed in Nordsjaelland as a good reason why they might not be worth backing in this one at the price.
Then again, Juventus showed tremendous heart to earn a 2-2 draw at Chelsea despite being 2-0 down and also beat Shakhtar Donetsk 0-1 to finish top of the Group so do have the pedigree to come into a boisterous Celtic Park and get a result.
I just feel this is a game where both sides may end up being fairly satisfied with a draw as Celtic will feel they are still in with a chance of qualifying for the Quarter Finals and Juventus will feel they can complete the job in their new stadium in Turin. I can see this one finishing 1-1 so the draw could be the way to go.
Valencia v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: This looks like one of the ties that could really go either way as Valencia have the European pedigree, while Paris Saint-Germain have brought in a number of experienced players to help them make an impact in this competition as soon as possible.
I think the extra experience that Valencia have as a team will enable them to take a lead to Paris next month, although this should be a tight contest tonight. Valencia have a very strong home record in recent games in the Champions League and have gone 10 games unbeaten there since Manchester United won 0-1, while they also reached the Semi Final of the Europa League last season with 3 straight wins at the Mestalla before Atletico Madrid won here on their way to winning the trophy.
Paris Saint-Germain have only faced one team with the same kind of level of experience as Valencia in the competition this season and that was Porto. While PSG beat them at home, they did lost 1-0 in Portugal and I can see a similar result being recorded by Valencia in this one.
Real Madrid v Manchester United Pick: Let's not beat around the bush here- I am a proud Manchester United fan whose heart excepts them to win every single game they play and win convincingly... However, my head in this case has been screaming that this could be a bad day in the office for the Red Army as they descend on one of the toughest away European ties they could play.
Even though Barcelona have beaten United in two Finals in recent seasons, I always felt their style of football is a little easier to play against than the direct, pacy style that Real Madrid produce (easier for United and English teams in general rather than just plain easier).
It is that pace and direct style that I think will be too much for United in the Spanish capital- far too often this season I have seen our midfield not be in the correct position in games and unless United plan on loading that area and playing for a low scoring draw, that is an area that concerns me heavily.
Real are going to attack- anyone who points at the fact that City came away with an 'unfortunate' 3-2 loss should go back and watch how City were dominated and I then ask them not to be concerned. The likes of Sporting Braga, Cluj and Galatasaray have created enough chances against United this season, but they don't have Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema, Mezut Ozil or Gonzalo Higuain as players in prominent positions of their sides (well Galatasaray didn't when we played them).
We will have our chances out there to get on the front foot, but that may lead to counter attacking opportunities when Real Madrid are even more dangerous.
No matter which way I look at this game, I can't see anything but a fairly comfortable Real Madrid win and I hope I am completely wrong about my assessment of this game...
Since the draw came out, I have been convinced that Real Madrid are going to expose the short-comings that a lot of United fans know the team have, that lack of midfield control. Hopefully I am wrong, but I can't see anything but a Real win by at least a couple of goals.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Borussia Dortmund Pick: I won't write so much about this game, but I think Borussia Dortmund are worth backing for a small interest to take a lead back to Germany next month.
I am not happy that we have already seen two away wins in the first legs of the Second Round as this is not usually a Round when there are a lot of away wins. However, Dortmund are focusing on the Champions League fully with the Bundesliga likely gone, and they have the counter attacking ability to win here.
Dortmund were unlucky to only draw at Manchester City and Real Madrid with late goals stopping them winning both games, but Shakhtar Donetsk did lose to Juventus here. The other news is their star player Willian has moved on and I just fancy the German side to nick a win here.
I haven't got time to put down my full reasons for the Europa League picks I am making, but those can be seen below.
MY PICKS: Celtic-Juventus Draw @ 3.60 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Valencia @ 2.50 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.45 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund @ 2.88 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Zenit St Petersburg @ 2.50 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Sparta Prague-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Newcastle United @ 2.30 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
February Update: 5-8, - 1.20 Units (21 Units Staked, - 5.71% Yield)
January Final: 10-22, - 10.89 Units (45 Units Staked, - 24.2% Yield)
December Final: 17-24-1, - 0.83 Units (53 Units Staked, - 0.02 % Yield)
November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 7.95 Units (248 Units Staked, + 3.21 % Yield)
Tennis Picks (February 12th)
Today is the day that the majority of the tennis tournaments really get going and that does mean there are a lot of matches going on in the various events around the World. You can find my outright picks here.
All of the events have kicked off and we already have seen one of the big surprises in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga being knocked out of the ATP tournament in Rotterdam in three sets by Igor Sijsling. Tsonga had his chances to win in straight sets, but it was the Dutchman that ended up coming out on top and it has certainly cleared the path to the Final for Roger Federer who will play his First Round match on Wednesday.
Tuesday will see the return to action of the likes of Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams in the Women's events and Juan Martin Del Potro's match against Gael Monfils has also been scheduled this evening so plenty of big names to enjoy.
Michael Llodra v Julien Benneteau: This is an interesting match between two Frenchmen in which I am not quite sure why Michael Llodra is the underdog against Julien Benneteau.
Llodra's best tennis is reserved for the faster courts and the indoor hard courts should suit his game against his friend and often Doubles partner. He should be able to put more pressure on the Benneteau serve of the two players and he also holds a 3-1 head to head record against his compatriot, including 2 wins on the indoor hard courts.
Benneteau is no slouch, but he was worrying about a slight back problem against Richard Gasquet last week and I just think the outsider has to be backed in this one, although there is a chance we could see a three set contest.
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games v Monica Niculescu: There is nothing surprising in saying that Jelena Jankovic is not the same player of a few seasons ago, but she should still be far too good for a player of Monica Niculescu's calibre.
Jankovic had dominated Niculescu in their previous meetings, winning all 5 on the professional Tour and winning every set including a 6-2, 6-1 win in Beijing last season.
Niculescu has a very 'grimy' game- she plays with a lot of variation and looks to befuddle her opponents, but Jankovic can play the exact same way but with a little more conviction behind her shots.
That should prove to be the difference again between the players even if Jankovic is not as solid as she has been in her career, but it should be enough for the Serb to cover this spread.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Guido Pella: Fabio Fognini is a frustrating character to back as he simply puts in too many matches where the effort is not at the necessary level to really have a impact on the ATP Tour.
However, he is playing an opponent he has beaten before and one that is still getting used to playing at the main level in professional tennis. Guido Pella has been raised on the clay courts and has Challenger wins on the surface, but facing someone of the level of Fognini should be a little too much for him just yet.
Fognini did only manage an 11-10 record on the clay courts last season, but I think he will be a little too good in both sets to see him through in this one. There should be a few breaks of serve and I am hoping the Italian doesn't put in a lacklustre display as is his want from time to time.
As a former Semi Finalist and Quarter Finalist at this tournament, I hope Fognini comes out with some seriousness in this one with a chance of improving his Ranking with a decent run.
Carlos Berlocq - 4.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: These two players will be meeting for a second week in a row and I don't think the result will be too much different from the comfortable win for Carlos Berlocq that was recorded last week in Chile.
Berlocq has now won all 3 meetings with Andrey Kuznetsov, while the two meetings on the clay courts has seen the Russian win all of 5 games in 4 losing sets.
There is definitely an edge for Berlocq in terms of talent and experience on the slower clay courts and the Argentine is definitely the one who has been playing against the superior talent over the last couple of seasons.
Kuznetsov did win 4 Challenger titles on the clay courts last season so don't under-estimate him and I do suppose he wins a couple more games than last week when they met, although that should still enable Berlocq to cover.
Ryan Harrison - 3.5 games v Benjamin Becker: Benjamin Becker remains a couple wins short of reaching 100 career wins on the ATP Tour and I think the German will still be a couple wins short after the conclusion of this match with Ryan Harrison.
Harrison hasn't played since his exit against Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open, and the American may only be ranked 4 places above Becker, but he did reach the Semi Final here in San Jose last season and has also beaten Becker in both of their previous meetings.
There have definitely been some signs that Harrison will progress up the World Rankings, although an injury cut his season short last year. The Semi Final appearance here last season was his first real success on an indoor hard court, but he has the consistency to hurt Becker who continues to throw in a poor service game per set.
The American has also won all 4 sets he has played against Becker and I can see him coming through with a 6-3, 7-6 win in this one.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Guido Pella: Fabio Fognini is a frustrating character to back as he simply puts in too many matches where the effort is not at the necessary level to really have a impact on the ATP Tour.
However, he is playing an opponent he has beaten before and one that is still getting used to playing at the main level in professional tennis. Guido Pella has been raised on the clay courts and has Challenger wins on the surface, but facing someone of the level of Fognini should be a little too much for him just yet.
Fognini did only manage an 11-10 record on the clay courts last season, but I think he will be a little too good in both sets to see him through in this one. There should be a few breaks of serve and I am hoping the Italian doesn't put in a lacklustre display as is his want from time to time.
As a former Semi Finalist and Quarter Finalist at this tournament, I hope Fognini comes out with some seriousness in this one with a chance of improving his Ranking with a decent run.
Carlos Berlocq - 4.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: These two players will be meeting for a second week in a row and I don't think the result will be too much different from the comfortable win for Carlos Berlocq that was recorded last week in Chile.
Berlocq has now won all 3 meetings with Andrey Kuznetsov, while the two meetings on the clay courts has seen the Russian win all of 5 games in 4 losing sets.
There is definitely an edge for Berlocq in terms of talent and experience on the slower clay courts and the Argentine is definitely the one who has been playing against the superior talent over the last couple of seasons.
Kuznetsov did win 4 Challenger titles on the clay courts last season so don't under-estimate him and I do suppose he wins a couple more games than last week when they met, although that should still enable Berlocq to cover.
Ryan Harrison - 3.5 games v Benjamin Becker: Benjamin Becker remains a couple wins short of reaching 100 career wins on the ATP Tour and I think the German will still be a couple wins short after the conclusion of this match with Ryan Harrison.
Harrison hasn't played since his exit against Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open, and the American may only be ranked 4 places above Becker, but he did reach the Semi Final here in San Jose last season and has also beaten Becker in both of their previous meetings.
There have definitely been some signs that Harrison will progress up the World Rankings, although an injury cut his season short last year. The Semi Final appearance here last season was his first real success on an indoor hard court, but he has the consistency to hurt Becker who continues to throw in a poor service game per set.
The American has also won all 4 sets he has played against Becker and I can see him coming through with a 6-3, 7-6 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Michael Llodra @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Carlos Berlocq - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Carlos Berlocq - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Sunday, 10 February 2013
Tennis Outright Picks (February 11-17)
After the Australian Open, there are always the two weeks where the ATP Tour shuts down allowing for Davis Cup action, while the WTA Tour closes down for Fed Cup action.
That does mean the first couple of weeks in February can be 'quieter' times of the season and a lot of the main players on both Tours are out of action.
It won't be the case this week as the likes of Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro are taking part in events across the World on the Men's Tour, while the event in Doha has captured 18 of the top 19 Women's players.
Last week, the big story was the aforementioned Rafael Nadal who made his long-awaited return to the Tour and is currently playing in the Final of the Singles event as I am writing this. It wasn't the toughest field that Nadal was up against, especially when Juan Monaco was beaten early, but it is clear that his aura still affects his opponents and I am expecting the Spaniard to have a couple more good weeks on the clay courts.
However, I am not convinced he will be a big player at either Indian Wells or Miami in the first Masters tournaments which begin in March.
The week in general was very good for the blog as both outright picks ended up winning their tournaments in Montpellier and Zagreb respectively. With the daily picks also showing a profit, it turns the seasons results back into black ahead of this week.
ATP Rotterdam
Surprisingly, Roger Federer has decided to return to Rotterdam to defend the title he won last season- I am surprised simply because Federer took part last season with the goal of getting back to Number 1 in the World Rankings and that is clearly not his main ambition going forward, or so I thought at least.
Federer is the short priced favourite to win the tournament, but he looks a little too short for me considering he has the tougher half of the draw with a potential Semi Final against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on the agenda.
We all saw Tsonga push Federer in the Australian Open Quarter Final and the indoor hard courts should help the Frenchman, although I still have Federer as the Number 1 player on these types of courts if I am honest. I would expect the Swiss man to get through, but it's not an easy run like the prices suggest it will be for him to retain his title here.
One man from the other half of the draw that could certainly get the better of Federer in the Final is Juan Martin Del Potro- the Argentine has beaten Federer the last two times they have played, both of those wins coming on the indoor hard courts in Basel and London.
Del Potro hasn't had the best start to his 2013 campaign, especially not with the surprise loss to Jeremy Chardy at the Australian Open, but he could go one better than last season and win this tournament this year if he can take care of a tough First Round opponent in Gael Monfils.
There are some potential dangers in the forms of Andreas Seppi and Richard Gasquet, but I have reasons to oppose both (injury and playing a full week last week respectively), while Del Potro has strong head to head records against both and would be favoured in my opinion.
ATP San Jose
I have mentioned on more than one occasion since beginning the tennis picks on the blog over the last couple of seasons that sometimes the 'horses for courses' term applies to tennis players at particularly events.
Milos Raonic has won back to back titles here in San Jose and he will feel confident he can add to that haul considering the faster indoor hard courts should suit his game down to the ground. The big serving Canadian hasn't had a great start to the 2013 season, but helping Canada to a Davis Cup win over Spain should have inspired him to come back and defend his title here and get the new season going in a positive direction.
It won't be an easy path through to the Final for Raonic as there are some potential dangers in the forms of Ryan Harrison and Sam Querrey with both of those players being a combined 3-1 against Raonic.
With those potential opponents in the way, I feel Raonic is far too short in the outright market and will instead focus on another former winner of this event who is in the bottom half of the draw.
Fernando Verdasco hasn't won a title since 2010 when he took the trophy home here in San Jose and also later in the year at Barcelona and he has been winning fewer and fewer matches over the last few years since his breakout year in 2009.
However, like Raonic, Verdasco seems to very comfortable in San Jose having won the event once and reached the Final in his only other appearance at the tournament. The Spaniard will have a tough Second Round test against likely Ivo Karlovic, while both Tommy Haas and John Isner will pose their own problems, but Verdasco looks a big price to go all the way at the tournament.
The indoor hard courts should still favour Verdasco's game despite a 3-3 record last season, and he has every chance of getting to the Final three straight times he has played here.
The tournaments in Sao Paulo and Doha haven't got prices that have appealed to me for different reasons- the first is that Rafael Nadal's appearance on the clay court swing in South America has meant layers are not offering each way prices and he does look the pick. Also, the bottom half of the draw in Brazil doesn't seem to have a clear cut option to reach the Final, although I would guess at the Number 2 seeded Nicolas Almagro to do so.
Doha is a major event on the WTA Tour as I mentioned that they have 18 of the top 19 players taking part at the tournament. However, there are no outright prices being offered on that one so I will stick with the two picks I have made from Rotterdam and San Jose this week.
MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro @ 5.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit E/W)
Fernando Verdasco @ 11.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit E/W)
Daily Picks: 6-5, + 1.22 Units (19 Units Staked, + 6.42% Yield)
Outright Picks: 2-0, + 8.75 Units (2 Units Staked, + 437.5% Yield)
Season 2013: + 7.35 Units (154 Units Staked, + 4.77% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
That does mean the first couple of weeks in February can be 'quieter' times of the season and a lot of the main players on both Tours are out of action.
It won't be the case this week as the likes of Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro are taking part in events across the World on the Men's Tour, while the event in Doha has captured 18 of the top 19 Women's players.
Last week, the big story was the aforementioned Rafael Nadal who made his long-awaited return to the Tour and is currently playing in the Final of the Singles event as I am writing this. It wasn't the toughest field that Nadal was up against, especially when Juan Monaco was beaten early, but it is clear that his aura still affects his opponents and I am expecting the Spaniard to have a couple more good weeks on the clay courts.
However, I am not convinced he will be a big player at either Indian Wells or Miami in the first Masters tournaments which begin in March.
The week in general was very good for the blog as both outright picks ended up winning their tournaments in Montpellier and Zagreb respectively. With the daily picks also showing a profit, it turns the seasons results back into black ahead of this week.
ATP Rotterdam
Surprisingly, Roger Federer has decided to return to Rotterdam to defend the title he won last season- I am surprised simply because Federer took part last season with the goal of getting back to Number 1 in the World Rankings and that is clearly not his main ambition going forward, or so I thought at least.
Federer is the short priced favourite to win the tournament, but he looks a little too short for me considering he has the tougher half of the draw with a potential Semi Final against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on the agenda.
We all saw Tsonga push Federer in the Australian Open Quarter Final and the indoor hard courts should help the Frenchman, although I still have Federer as the Number 1 player on these types of courts if I am honest. I would expect the Swiss man to get through, but it's not an easy run like the prices suggest it will be for him to retain his title here.
One man from the other half of the draw that could certainly get the better of Federer in the Final is Juan Martin Del Potro- the Argentine has beaten Federer the last two times they have played, both of those wins coming on the indoor hard courts in Basel and London.
Del Potro hasn't had the best start to his 2013 campaign, especially not with the surprise loss to Jeremy Chardy at the Australian Open, but he could go one better than last season and win this tournament this year if he can take care of a tough First Round opponent in Gael Monfils.
There are some potential dangers in the forms of Andreas Seppi and Richard Gasquet, but I have reasons to oppose both (injury and playing a full week last week respectively), while Del Potro has strong head to head records against both and would be favoured in my opinion.
ATP San Jose
I have mentioned on more than one occasion since beginning the tennis picks on the blog over the last couple of seasons that sometimes the 'horses for courses' term applies to tennis players at particularly events.
Milos Raonic has won back to back titles here in San Jose and he will feel confident he can add to that haul considering the faster indoor hard courts should suit his game down to the ground. The big serving Canadian hasn't had a great start to the 2013 season, but helping Canada to a Davis Cup win over Spain should have inspired him to come back and defend his title here and get the new season going in a positive direction.
It won't be an easy path through to the Final for Raonic as there are some potential dangers in the forms of Ryan Harrison and Sam Querrey with both of those players being a combined 3-1 against Raonic.
With those potential opponents in the way, I feel Raonic is far too short in the outright market and will instead focus on another former winner of this event who is in the bottom half of the draw.
Fernando Verdasco hasn't won a title since 2010 when he took the trophy home here in San Jose and also later in the year at Barcelona and he has been winning fewer and fewer matches over the last few years since his breakout year in 2009.
However, like Raonic, Verdasco seems to very comfortable in San Jose having won the event once and reached the Final in his only other appearance at the tournament. The Spaniard will have a tough Second Round test against likely Ivo Karlovic, while both Tommy Haas and John Isner will pose their own problems, but Verdasco looks a big price to go all the way at the tournament.
The indoor hard courts should still favour Verdasco's game despite a 3-3 record last season, and he has every chance of getting to the Final three straight times he has played here.
The tournaments in Sao Paulo and Doha haven't got prices that have appealed to me for different reasons- the first is that Rafael Nadal's appearance on the clay court swing in South America has meant layers are not offering each way prices and he does look the pick. Also, the bottom half of the draw in Brazil doesn't seem to have a clear cut option to reach the Final, although I would guess at the Number 2 seeded Nicolas Almagro to do so.
Doha is a major event on the WTA Tour as I mentioned that they have 18 of the top 19 players taking part at the tournament. However, there are no outright prices being offered on that one so I will stick with the two picks I have made from Rotterdam and San Jose this week.
MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro @ 5.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit E/W)
Fernando Verdasco @ 11.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit E/W)
Daily Picks: 6-5, + 1.22 Units (19 Units Staked, + 6.42% Yield)
Outright Picks: 2-0, + 8.75 Units (2 Units Staked, + 437.5% Yield)
Season 2013: + 7.35 Units (154 Units Staked, + 4.77% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Saturday, 9 February 2013
Weekend Football Picks (February 9-11)
After the brief break thanks to the international action during the week, we can get back to concentrating on those games that actually mean something as the Premier League gets back underway.
I am sure I am not the only one that thinks international friendlies are the biggest waste of time in the football calender, especially not when players are asked to play the full minutes in games that literally don't mean a thing in the grand scheme of things.
Anyway, as a Manchester United fan, this is a big week as we are almost ready for the start of the Champions League Second Round matches with the big game at Real Madrid just days away. The change in the Everton fixture from a Saturday lunchtime to a Sunday afternoon has infuriated Sir Alex Ferguson as United will have a day less to recover between their game with Everton compared with Real Madrid who play Sevilla on Saturday evening.
The bottom line is that the TV companies dictate the time games are played (ask how many United fans are feeling good about the Reading FA Cup tie being moved to a Monday night?) and there is little thought to 'helping big clubs' and even less in helping fans out who make the game what it is.
Chelsea v Wigan Athletic Pick: Chelsea have been in a terrible rut of form but they haven't been too far away from giving someone a right good going over and that could be the case for Wigan Athletic in this one at Stamford Bridge.
To be fair to Wigan, they have performed well at the Bridge for the most part, although they have taken two absolute pastings here too. The last two seasons have seen them lose by a solitary goal, but they have also lost 8-0 here and 4-0 so it could be another one of those occasions.
While Chelsea haven't been performing that well recently, they are capable on their day and they should be able to win this one by a couple of goals as long as they cut out some of the defensive mistakes that have blighted their recent games.
There is still a lot of attacking talent in the Chelsea squad and I think this will be their day to turn around some of the recent negative vibes.
Stoke City v Reading Pick: Stoke City were being lauded as one of the best defensive sides in Europe around six weeks ago, but all that seems to have disappeared in recent games and this is going to be a tough game for them.
Only Asmir Begovic saved Stoke from a real shelling at Arsenal in their last game, while both Southampton and Wigan Athletic have scored freely at the Brittania Stadium in recent League games. That should give Reading a lot of confidence that they can continue their recent revival and perhaps put some more distance between themselves and the relegation zone.
However, the reason Reading have relied on so many late heroics is because their own defence has hardly been playing at a high level and they will allow teams to create chances against them. Stoke might be conceding goals, but they have also been pretty effective going forward against the sides below them in the table and I imagine they will get on the scoreboard too in this one.
It is a hard game to pick a winner, but I do imagine there will be one and the 2-1 scoreline either way looks the call. Therefore, I'll be picking goals in this one.
Sunderland v Arsenal Pick: Arsenal are the absolute favourites in this game, but that looks remarkably short against a Sunderland team that have at least been playing a little better for the most part in recent weeks.
While Sunderland do remain a pretty unattractive team to watch (exhibit A is the recent game against Swansea at the Stadium of Light), they are proving hard to beat and 3 wins from their last 4 Premier League games at home suggests they'll be hard to be again.
The side have also managed to beat Manchester City in that time so playing Arsenal won't hold too many fears for them, while the last 5 games here between the sides have ended with just 1 Arsenal win.
Arsenal have only won 2 of their last 8 away games in the Premier League, but they have also only lost 3 of those games so the draw looks a big call in this game with a lot of signs pointing that way. Even last season, Arsenal needed an injury time goal to grab the three points and it will be close but the draw looks the most reasonable result to go with in this one.
Southampton v Manchester City Pick: Southampton have really played well since Nigel Adkins was unceremoniously dumped as manager, but the players have responded to the new words of Mauricio Pochettino and it is more than arguable that they have deserved a lot more than the 2 points from a possible 9 they have earned in his time as manager.
The Saints outplayed Everton and Wigan Athletic for long periods in games that ended in draws, while they were more than a little unfortunate to lose 2-1 at Manchester United after a terrific second half performance.
Even with that in mind, they are facing a wounded Manchester City team that will be aware that they need the three points to put a bit of pressure on Manchester United who play on Sunday. The City team had just seemed to have found a defensive groove but they were brutally exposed by Liverpool's movement and they could be under some real pressure in this one too.
However, City did earn clean sheets at Stoke City and Queens Park Rangers in their most recent away games, while they have the best away defensive record in the Premier League and should have just enough to prevent Southampton scoring.
I do expect City to win the game in what could be a close game and it might only take a solitary goal to separate the sides.
Aston Villa v West Ham United Pick: The first live game on Sunday doesn't exactly offer too much to look forward to when you see the teams in action, but I actually think it could be a fairly entertaining game.
Aston Villa have had some real struggles defensively, particularly from set pieces, and that doesn't exactly bode well against a West Ham United team that will look to exploit those problems and certainly have the size to do so. I am expecting West Ham to score at least once from a corner or free kick simply because Villa have shown no signs of getting to grips with this area of their defending and players like Andy Carroll and Winston Reid are going to be a danger.
I don't expect Villa just to lie down though as they have a chance to move out of the bottom three with a win- the bottom of the table is looking like we will see 3 teams relegated from 4 at the moment so Villa need to start picking up points and could come to regret the three points they should have had from Everton last weekend.
The side should have some chances if Christian Benteke is in the same form as last weekend, especially considering West Ham have conceded at least 3 goals in each of their last 3 Premier League away games. This game could easily result in a 2-1 win either way and I think we will see goals in this one.
Manchester United v Everton Pick: There has been a little bit of giddyness developing in some Manchester United fans after Manchester City lost at Southampton, so much so that they are hoping Sir Alex Ferguson rests his entire team in preparation for the game at Real Madrid on Wednesday night.
While SAF has admitted he will make changes, I don't believe at all that it will be wholesale as there is a lot of respect for Everton and the job David Moyes has done at Goodison Park this season. The manager has also not forgotten what happened last season when United blew a 4-2 lead in the final minutes of their game with Everton, a result that is blamed for the failure to win the Premier League title.
However, it is hard to get a read on how to grab an angle on the game considering the team selection is something I would like to see first.
Instead, I think it could be worth backing Wayne Rooney to continue his hot streak and open the scoring in this one- Rooney is a player that the gaffer has admitted needs to keep playing games to stay in shape so I am almost certain that the former Everton player will be given a starting spot in this one.
Rooney has scored 5 goals in his last 5 games for United and he also has 4 goals from his last 3 games at Old Trafford... He has also opened the scoring in 2 of the last 5 United games while continuing that form for England by opening the scoring against Brazil on Wednesday night.
MY PICKS: Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Stoke City-Reading Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sunderland-Arsenal Draw @ 3.75 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 3.00 Coral (1 Unit)
Aston Villa-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Wayne Rooney First Goalscorer @ 5.50 Bet 365 (1 Unit)
February Update: 2-5, - 4.30 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35.9% Yield)
January Final: 10-22, - 10.89 Units (45 Units Staked, - 24.2% Yield)
December Final: 17-24-1, - 0.83 Units (53 Units Staked, - 0.02 % Yield)
November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 7.95 Units (248 Units Staked, + 3.21 % Yield)
I am sure I am not the only one that thinks international friendlies are the biggest waste of time in the football calender, especially not when players are asked to play the full minutes in games that literally don't mean a thing in the grand scheme of things.
Anyway, as a Manchester United fan, this is a big week as we are almost ready for the start of the Champions League Second Round matches with the big game at Real Madrid just days away. The change in the Everton fixture from a Saturday lunchtime to a Sunday afternoon has infuriated Sir Alex Ferguson as United will have a day less to recover between their game with Everton compared with Real Madrid who play Sevilla on Saturday evening.
The bottom line is that the TV companies dictate the time games are played (ask how many United fans are feeling good about the Reading FA Cup tie being moved to a Monday night?) and there is little thought to 'helping big clubs' and even less in helping fans out who make the game what it is.
Chelsea v Wigan Athletic Pick: Chelsea have been in a terrible rut of form but they haven't been too far away from giving someone a right good going over and that could be the case for Wigan Athletic in this one at Stamford Bridge.
To be fair to Wigan, they have performed well at the Bridge for the most part, although they have taken two absolute pastings here too. The last two seasons have seen them lose by a solitary goal, but they have also lost 8-0 here and 4-0 so it could be another one of those occasions.
While Chelsea haven't been performing that well recently, they are capable on their day and they should be able to win this one by a couple of goals as long as they cut out some of the defensive mistakes that have blighted their recent games.
There is still a lot of attacking talent in the Chelsea squad and I think this will be their day to turn around some of the recent negative vibes.
Stoke City v Reading Pick: Stoke City were being lauded as one of the best defensive sides in Europe around six weeks ago, but all that seems to have disappeared in recent games and this is going to be a tough game for them.
Only Asmir Begovic saved Stoke from a real shelling at Arsenal in their last game, while both Southampton and Wigan Athletic have scored freely at the Brittania Stadium in recent League games. That should give Reading a lot of confidence that they can continue their recent revival and perhaps put some more distance between themselves and the relegation zone.
However, the reason Reading have relied on so many late heroics is because their own defence has hardly been playing at a high level and they will allow teams to create chances against them. Stoke might be conceding goals, but they have also been pretty effective going forward against the sides below them in the table and I imagine they will get on the scoreboard too in this one.
It is a hard game to pick a winner, but I do imagine there will be one and the 2-1 scoreline either way looks the call. Therefore, I'll be picking goals in this one.
Sunderland v Arsenal Pick: Arsenal are the absolute favourites in this game, but that looks remarkably short against a Sunderland team that have at least been playing a little better for the most part in recent weeks.
While Sunderland do remain a pretty unattractive team to watch (exhibit A is the recent game against Swansea at the Stadium of Light), they are proving hard to beat and 3 wins from their last 4 Premier League games at home suggests they'll be hard to be again.
The side have also managed to beat Manchester City in that time so playing Arsenal won't hold too many fears for them, while the last 5 games here between the sides have ended with just 1 Arsenal win.
Arsenal have only won 2 of their last 8 away games in the Premier League, but they have also only lost 3 of those games so the draw looks a big call in this game with a lot of signs pointing that way. Even last season, Arsenal needed an injury time goal to grab the three points and it will be close but the draw looks the most reasonable result to go with in this one.
Southampton v Manchester City Pick: Southampton have really played well since Nigel Adkins was unceremoniously dumped as manager, but the players have responded to the new words of Mauricio Pochettino and it is more than arguable that they have deserved a lot more than the 2 points from a possible 9 they have earned in his time as manager.
The Saints outplayed Everton and Wigan Athletic for long periods in games that ended in draws, while they were more than a little unfortunate to lose 2-1 at Manchester United after a terrific second half performance.
Even with that in mind, they are facing a wounded Manchester City team that will be aware that they need the three points to put a bit of pressure on Manchester United who play on Sunday. The City team had just seemed to have found a defensive groove but they were brutally exposed by Liverpool's movement and they could be under some real pressure in this one too.
However, City did earn clean sheets at Stoke City and Queens Park Rangers in their most recent away games, while they have the best away defensive record in the Premier League and should have just enough to prevent Southampton scoring.
I do expect City to win the game in what could be a close game and it might only take a solitary goal to separate the sides.
Aston Villa v West Ham United Pick: The first live game on Sunday doesn't exactly offer too much to look forward to when you see the teams in action, but I actually think it could be a fairly entertaining game.
Aston Villa have had some real struggles defensively, particularly from set pieces, and that doesn't exactly bode well against a West Ham United team that will look to exploit those problems and certainly have the size to do so. I am expecting West Ham to score at least once from a corner or free kick simply because Villa have shown no signs of getting to grips with this area of their defending and players like Andy Carroll and Winston Reid are going to be a danger.
I don't expect Villa just to lie down though as they have a chance to move out of the bottom three with a win- the bottom of the table is looking like we will see 3 teams relegated from 4 at the moment so Villa need to start picking up points and could come to regret the three points they should have had from Everton last weekend.
The side should have some chances if Christian Benteke is in the same form as last weekend, especially considering West Ham have conceded at least 3 goals in each of their last 3 Premier League away games. This game could easily result in a 2-1 win either way and I think we will see goals in this one.
Manchester United v Everton Pick: There has been a little bit of giddyness developing in some Manchester United fans after Manchester City lost at Southampton, so much so that they are hoping Sir Alex Ferguson rests his entire team in preparation for the game at Real Madrid on Wednesday night.
While SAF has admitted he will make changes, I don't believe at all that it will be wholesale as there is a lot of respect for Everton and the job David Moyes has done at Goodison Park this season. The manager has also not forgotten what happened last season when United blew a 4-2 lead in the final minutes of their game with Everton, a result that is blamed for the failure to win the Premier League title.
However, it is hard to get a read on how to grab an angle on the game considering the team selection is something I would like to see first.
Instead, I think it could be worth backing Wayne Rooney to continue his hot streak and open the scoring in this one- Rooney is a player that the gaffer has admitted needs to keep playing games to stay in shape so I am almost certain that the former Everton player will be given a starting spot in this one.
Rooney has scored 5 goals in his last 5 games for United and he also has 4 goals from his last 3 games at Old Trafford... He has also opened the scoring in 2 of the last 5 United games while continuing that form for England by opening the scoring against Brazil on Wednesday night.
MY PICKS: Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Stoke City-Reading Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sunderland-Arsenal Draw @ 3.75 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 3.00 Coral (1 Unit)
Aston Villa-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Wayne Rooney First Goalscorer @ 5.50 Bet 365 (1 Unit)
February Update: 2-5, - 4.30 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35.9% Yield)
January Final: 10-22, - 10.89 Units (45 Units Staked, - 24.2% Yield)
December Final: 17-24-1, - 0.83 Units (53 Units Staked, - 0.02 % Yield)
November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 7.95 Units (248 Units Staked, + 3.21 % Yield)
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