It seems there are not a lot of markets to open up this week which is usually the case at the beginning of the week before a Grand Slam. That means there are going to be limited choices throughout the week and I will only get involved if I think there is a decent pick to be made.
Dmitry Tursunov v Philipp Petzschner: This is the only pick I will be making to open up the week and that is backing the defending Champion, Dmitry Tursunov, to get his defence off to a good start by moving into the Second Round.
Philipp Petzschner is no mug on the grass and his game does translate well onto the surface, while he will also have an edge on the current conditions having come through three qualifying matches to reach the main draw. However, the German had been on a long losing run before these wins in the qualifiers and confidence cannot be that great, especially if he falls behind in this match.
Tursunov has reached the Final at a Challenger event on the grass this season, but he was a surprise loser to Ryan Sweeting at Queens last week and he does struggle for consistency. The Russian has usually been a really tough test on the grass as his big serve and heavy groundstrokes give him an edge on the surface.
He also has won his only previous meeting with Petzschner and I will back him to double that by winning this one at the pick 'em price.
MY PICK: Dmitry Tursunov @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Featured post
NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4 (Monday 18th May-Monday 25th May)
We are going to be down to the final four teams in the NBA once Game 7 of the Second Round Series between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland ...
Monday, 18 June 2012
Tennis Recap (June 11-17)
Another week has gone by on the Tour and we are now just seven days from the start of the third Grand Slam of the season at Wimbledon. That means we have the last of the grass court events starting this week before Wimbledon and most of the top players will be playing exhibition events rather than proper tournaments.
It was a controversial end to the tournament at Queens this week and where else can I start?!
David Nalbandian is disqualified in the Final at Queens: I haven't seen anything like what happened on Sunday as David Nalbandian was forced to default the Final at Queens even though he was leading 1-0 in sets and was a break down in the second set.
I am sure most of you would have seen the incident when Nalbandian kicked the sponsors panel that shattered and ended up cutting a line judge's leg- it was a really unfortunate incident, but I can't excuse it and there could really have only been one way that match was going to go as soon as he did what he did.
I do think it was out of order to get Nalbandian to have an immediate interview on court where the questions were too much when someone is still in an emotional state. All they had to do was to get Nalbandian to apologise and move on rather than pushing for him to answer questions- how many of us would be in a position to speak at such an emotional juncture?
I am glad to see that Nalbandian has since released a couple of statements showing how apologetic he is about the whole situation, while he was the same in the press interview afterwards when he was a little calmer.
It is already a shame that Nalbandian will lose his prize money and his ranking points from the event, points that would have seen him likely seeded for Wimbledon.
I don't agree with the numpties who are 'demanding' that he serves a suspension as I think the fact is he has come to Queens and basically played while losing money all week with no prize money or ranking points gained- that is enough punishment, as well as the shame in losing a Final in the manner he did, so the idea that he should be suspended is beyond laughable.
The kick was a mistake and he didn't intend to hit the line judge, so I think the punishment is already complete.
I was fortunate enough to meet Nalbandian this week and have a quick chat with him- he was friendly, happy to sign my ticket and also to have a photo taken and all this was around an hour before he was due on court so I wasn't disappointed in meeting my favourite player of the last ten years- it's a shame that he couldn't get his name on the winners board, but I hope he does come back in the coming years.
Least now I won't hear the numerous people asking who is at the event(!)
The difference in Roger Federer's and Rafael Nadal's defeats at Halle: I have said for some time that I don't think Roger Federer is at 100% with his health and I expect he will take the time off between Wimbledon and the Olympic games. His defeat in the Final at Halle was disappointing and he has looked a little jaded at times during the week.
I find it very hard to imagine that he can go to Wimbledon and have a real chance of winning the tournament with the way he has been playing since winning in Madrid- he struggled to put away lesser opponents at the French Open and he just hasn't looked right to me in using the eye test.
There will be some out there that are wondering why I have these concerns about Federer and not the same thing when it comes to Rafael Nadal and the answer is pretty simple- Nadal has never really had a strong pedigree in the tournament between the French Open and Wimbledon, unlike Federer.
Nadal has won the tournament at Queens, but 4 of his 5 appearances at that tournament has seen him go out at the Quarter Final stage and he has reached the Final at Wimbledon or won that event soon after.
All Nadal considers at this stage is to get a bit of practice on the grass and he has done that and I have no doubt he will be ready for Wimbledon. The draw will still be important to see whether he can get to the Final and win the event, but that will be analysed at the end of the coming week.
Should we read anything into all the seeds falling at Queens?: It was a strange tournament all around at Queens, culminating in the David Nalbandian situation, but the question is what to read into all the top seeds falling so quickly at the tournament.
Andy Murray, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Andy Roddick and Janko Tipsarevic were all early losers, but I don't think we should read anything into it... Well nothing more than it just being one of those tournaments where it happens from time to time.
Murray and Tipsarevic will be going on to The Boodles this week to play some exhibition matches to get up to speed on the grass, while Andy Roddick is playing down in Eastbourne although he has been given a tough draw against Sam Querrey, but the biggest news may be about Tsonga.
Will Jo-Wilfried Tsonga make it to Wimbledon?: This was the biggest news (before the David Nalbandian situation) coming out of Queens as far as I was concerned as the Frenchman has potentially broken a finger and could be forced to miss Wimbledon.
This will be a big shame for the event, especially after Tsonga's performance at the French Open which had seemed to have filled him with confidence for the grass court season.
Outside of the top four players in the World, I thought Tsonga had the best chance to really have an impact at Wimbledon so I am looking forward to hearing what has happened to his finger and whether he is going to be missing.
The suggestions are that he will be fine and will be in the field next Monday, but I think I will keep an eye on him and see if he takes part in any exhibition matches.
If fully fit and ready to go, Tsonga could really make people sit up and take notice in the coming weeks with Wimbledon and the Olympic games both taking place on the grass he loves playing on.
Weekly Final: + 3.76 Units (18 Units Staked)
Season 2012 Update: + 61.74 Units (510 Units Staked, 12.11% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
It was a controversial end to the tournament at Queens this week and where else can I start?!
David Nalbandian is disqualified in the Final at Queens: I haven't seen anything like what happened on Sunday as David Nalbandian was forced to default the Final at Queens even though he was leading 1-0 in sets and was a break down in the second set.
I am sure most of you would have seen the incident when Nalbandian kicked the sponsors panel that shattered and ended up cutting a line judge's leg- it was a really unfortunate incident, but I can't excuse it and there could really have only been one way that match was going to go as soon as he did what he did.
I do think it was out of order to get Nalbandian to have an immediate interview on court where the questions were too much when someone is still in an emotional state. All they had to do was to get Nalbandian to apologise and move on rather than pushing for him to answer questions- how many of us would be in a position to speak at such an emotional juncture?
I am glad to see that Nalbandian has since released a couple of statements showing how apologetic he is about the whole situation, while he was the same in the press interview afterwards when he was a little calmer.
It is already a shame that Nalbandian will lose his prize money and his ranking points from the event, points that would have seen him likely seeded for Wimbledon.
I don't agree with the numpties who are 'demanding' that he serves a suspension as I think the fact is he has come to Queens and basically played while losing money all week with no prize money or ranking points gained- that is enough punishment, as well as the shame in losing a Final in the manner he did, so the idea that he should be suspended is beyond laughable.
The kick was a mistake and he didn't intend to hit the line judge, so I think the punishment is already complete.
I was fortunate enough to meet Nalbandian this week and have a quick chat with him- he was friendly, happy to sign my ticket and also to have a photo taken and all this was around an hour before he was due on court so I wasn't disappointed in meeting my favourite player of the last ten years- it's a shame that he couldn't get his name on the winners board, but I hope he does come back in the coming years.
Least now I won't hear the numerous people asking who is at the event(!)
The difference in Roger Federer's and Rafael Nadal's defeats at Halle: I have said for some time that I don't think Roger Federer is at 100% with his health and I expect he will take the time off between Wimbledon and the Olympic games. His defeat in the Final at Halle was disappointing and he has looked a little jaded at times during the week.
I find it very hard to imagine that he can go to Wimbledon and have a real chance of winning the tournament with the way he has been playing since winning in Madrid- he struggled to put away lesser opponents at the French Open and he just hasn't looked right to me in using the eye test.
There will be some out there that are wondering why I have these concerns about Federer and not the same thing when it comes to Rafael Nadal and the answer is pretty simple- Nadal has never really had a strong pedigree in the tournament between the French Open and Wimbledon, unlike Federer.
Nadal has won the tournament at Queens, but 4 of his 5 appearances at that tournament has seen him go out at the Quarter Final stage and he has reached the Final at Wimbledon or won that event soon after.
All Nadal considers at this stage is to get a bit of practice on the grass and he has done that and I have no doubt he will be ready for Wimbledon. The draw will still be important to see whether he can get to the Final and win the event, but that will be analysed at the end of the coming week.
Should we read anything into all the seeds falling at Queens?: It was a strange tournament all around at Queens, culminating in the David Nalbandian situation, but the question is what to read into all the top seeds falling so quickly at the tournament.
Andy Murray, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Andy Roddick and Janko Tipsarevic were all early losers, but I don't think we should read anything into it... Well nothing more than it just being one of those tournaments where it happens from time to time.
Murray and Tipsarevic will be going on to The Boodles this week to play some exhibition matches to get up to speed on the grass, while Andy Roddick is playing down in Eastbourne although he has been given a tough draw against Sam Querrey, but the biggest news may be about Tsonga.
Will Jo-Wilfried Tsonga make it to Wimbledon?: This was the biggest news (before the David Nalbandian situation) coming out of Queens as far as I was concerned as the Frenchman has potentially broken a finger and could be forced to miss Wimbledon.
This will be a big shame for the event, especially after Tsonga's performance at the French Open which had seemed to have filled him with confidence for the grass court season.
Outside of the top four players in the World, I thought Tsonga had the best chance to really have an impact at Wimbledon so I am looking forward to hearing what has happened to his finger and whether he is going to be missing.
The suggestions are that he will be fine and will be in the field next Monday, but I think I will keep an eye on him and see if he takes part in any exhibition matches.
If fully fit and ready to go, Tsonga could really make people sit up and take notice in the coming weeks with Wimbledon and the Olympic games both taking place on the grass he loves playing on.
Weekly Final: + 3.76 Units (18 Units Staked)
Season 2012 Update: + 61.74 Units (510 Units Staked, 12.11% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Saturday, 16 June 2012
Euro 2012 Group Stages- Round 3 (June 16-19)
The Euro 2012 tournament is already half way through as far as matches are concerned and I have to say I haven't been overly impressed with the quality, although that hasn't dampened the excitement of the matches. There just seems to be very few stand-out players and perhaps it is just me being a little nostalgic for the tournaments I enjoyed when I was growing up.
I also don't believe it is right that the tournament will be extended to 24 teams in four years time as I already feel the talent pool is being stretched with the teams we have here now. Adding the likes of Belgium, Montenegro, Estonia, Turkey, Bosnia and Norway doesn't exactly thrill me that we will be getting any more out of the event, while the potential for the 'best third placed' teams to get through brings its own problems at the group stage.
Don't be surprised if there are more 'convenient' results set up in the final round of games to make sure teams have the 'best third place points' and ensure qualification to the next round, but that is an issue for four years time.
There is still everything to play for in Group A as we reach the final games and a big chance for the co-host nation Poland to get through, although they have to create history by winning their first EVER game at the European Championships. It looks a winnable game against the Czech Republic, but hope and expectations are tough factors to actually determine how much they will affect a game. It may just be how Poland deal with those two issues that will ensure a place in the last eight or an unsatisfying exit from the group stage.
The other game seems a little more clear cut and Russia are the right favourites to get the point necessary to ensure they are playing in the Quarter Finals for the second successive Euro Championships. Greece have looked shaky and it is hard to see them turn that around in their final game, while Russia do look like a side that can score a few goals.
I can't wait for the Portugal-Holland game in Group B on Sunday evening as it should be one where neither team sits back and tries to protect a lead. It has all the makings of an extremely high-scoring game as Holland need to win by at least two goals if they have any hope of getting out of a group where they have lost their first two games. I don't have much faith in either teams ability to defend and I think the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Arjen Robben and Robin Van Persie could be given a few chances to make a real mark at the tournament.
Unfortunately for those two nations, one of them will definitely be exiting on Sunday night, while both could go out if Holland win and Denmark avoid defeat to Germany. The Germans have looked solid and have won the group by beating the two 'better' nations in the group and will be expected to seal their passage into the last eight with another win.
However, am I really the only person that thinks Germany may be happy to play out a draw and hope that Holland beat Portugal to ensure both potential threats are eliminated at the group stage? It is a dangerous game as a Denmark win/Portugal fail to win could see Germany displaced at the top of the group and thus ensure a tougher route to the Final, but it is something worth noting.
For example, imagine if news comes through to the German game that Holland have taken an early lead in their game- would it really be that unimaginable that both Germany and Denmark then settle in and wait to see what happens next? Probably is a little too far into the world of conspiracy theories, but I would be VERY interested to see how the Germany-Denmark game developed IF Holland were winning by two goals before any goals have been scored in Lviv.
Talking about potential conspiracies, how about the fact that if Spain and Croatia draw 2-2, Italy will be out no matter what they do against Ireland in their fixture? Italy will know all about that 2-2 result as it was exactly what Denmark and Sweden played out in 2004 to knock the Italians out of the Euro 2004 tournament at this very stage, and it is clear that a team that has the majority of players in the Serie A League affected by match-fixing scandals are clearly worried about this possibility.
It has gone so far that Italian players like Gianluigi Buffon has been quoted as saying that Spain wouldn't do this for their pride. It has also riled up some of the Spanish and Croatian players who are adamant that they will not do this, but it is definitely a possibility that has to be considered- Spain would still win the group, Croatia would go through and a potential big rival in Italy would be out of the competition so everyone (well not the Italians) would win.
Anyway, this is all suggesting the Italy result over Ireland is a 'gimme' and I don't believe that is the case no matter how bad the Irish have played so far in the tournament. Giovanni Trapattoni will really get his team up for his game and it was the one game the Irish really fancied for some reason so I expect them to put in a big effort.
Add in the fact that Italy have struggled to maintain their tempo and performance for a full game so far in the tournament and there is every chance the Irish can sneak a result that will put Italy out of the competition anyway.
It will be a tough game for the Italians, but it would be made all the tougher if the 2-2 scoreline haunts them again.
France have virtually got two feet into the Quarter Finals of the tournament thanks to their 0-2 win over the Ukraine yesterday and they either need one point from their last game with Sweden OR they need England to avoid defeat to Ukraine to ensure they are going through.
Even if France lost 0-1 to Sweden in their final game, an England loss would also see them through to the next round so they are in a really strong position. Their motivation for the game against Sweden may well be decided on Monday night once they figure out if finishing first or second will avoid meeting Spain in the Quarter Finals- I think the French are likely good enough to decide their own fate in the group and I expect they will do what it takes to avoid playing Spain.
The other game between Ukraine and England will be fascinating as a win would guarantee a place in the last eight, while England can also sit back and avoid defeat to make their way out of the group. It was a dramatic turnaround win over Sweden that has given England this leeway in their final game, but there were some real worries with the way they defended and I think they were fortunate to be playing a poor Swedish side in all honesty.
Ukraine didn't look all that much against France either so I think England, with the returning Wayne Rooney, will do enough to qualify. However, things will get a lot tougher with Spain most likely their opponents in the Quarter Finals so there is plenty to look forward to as the tournament marches on.
June 16th
Poland v Czech Republic Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14476-Poland-v-Czech-Republic.htm)
Greece v Russia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14477-Greece-v-Russia.htm)
June 17th
Denmark v Germany Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14488-Denmark-v-Germany.htm)
Portugal v Holland Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14489-Portugal-v-Holland.htm)
June 19th
Sweden v France Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14506-Sweden-v-France.htm)
Ukraine v England Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14507-Ukraine-v-England.htm)
MY PICKS: Poland to win and at least 3 goals to be scored (Quatro) @ 4.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Russia win both halves @ 5.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Germany to win both halves @ 4.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Portugal-Holland Over 4.5 goals @ 6.00 Bodog (1 Unit)
France to win and 3/4 goals scored @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
England to win and 3/4 goals scored @ 4.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Euro 2012 Update: 6-12, - 0.26 Units (28 Units Staked)
I also don't believe it is right that the tournament will be extended to 24 teams in four years time as I already feel the talent pool is being stretched with the teams we have here now. Adding the likes of Belgium, Montenegro, Estonia, Turkey, Bosnia and Norway doesn't exactly thrill me that we will be getting any more out of the event, while the potential for the 'best third placed' teams to get through brings its own problems at the group stage.
Don't be surprised if there are more 'convenient' results set up in the final round of games to make sure teams have the 'best third place points' and ensure qualification to the next round, but that is an issue for four years time.
There is still everything to play for in Group A as we reach the final games and a big chance for the co-host nation Poland to get through, although they have to create history by winning their first EVER game at the European Championships. It looks a winnable game against the Czech Republic, but hope and expectations are tough factors to actually determine how much they will affect a game. It may just be how Poland deal with those two issues that will ensure a place in the last eight or an unsatisfying exit from the group stage.
The other game seems a little more clear cut and Russia are the right favourites to get the point necessary to ensure they are playing in the Quarter Finals for the second successive Euro Championships. Greece have looked shaky and it is hard to see them turn that around in their final game, while Russia do look like a side that can score a few goals.
I can't wait for the Portugal-Holland game in Group B on Sunday evening as it should be one where neither team sits back and tries to protect a lead. It has all the makings of an extremely high-scoring game as Holland need to win by at least two goals if they have any hope of getting out of a group where they have lost their first two games. I don't have much faith in either teams ability to defend and I think the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Arjen Robben and Robin Van Persie could be given a few chances to make a real mark at the tournament.
Unfortunately for those two nations, one of them will definitely be exiting on Sunday night, while both could go out if Holland win and Denmark avoid defeat to Germany. The Germans have looked solid and have won the group by beating the two 'better' nations in the group and will be expected to seal their passage into the last eight with another win.
However, am I really the only person that thinks Germany may be happy to play out a draw and hope that Holland beat Portugal to ensure both potential threats are eliminated at the group stage? It is a dangerous game as a Denmark win/Portugal fail to win could see Germany displaced at the top of the group and thus ensure a tougher route to the Final, but it is something worth noting.
For example, imagine if news comes through to the German game that Holland have taken an early lead in their game- would it really be that unimaginable that both Germany and Denmark then settle in and wait to see what happens next? Probably is a little too far into the world of conspiracy theories, but I would be VERY interested to see how the Germany-Denmark game developed IF Holland were winning by two goals before any goals have been scored in Lviv.
Talking about potential conspiracies, how about the fact that if Spain and Croatia draw 2-2, Italy will be out no matter what they do against Ireland in their fixture? Italy will know all about that 2-2 result as it was exactly what Denmark and Sweden played out in 2004 to knock the Italians out of the Euro 2004 tournament at this very stage, and it is clear that a team that has the majority of players in the Serie A League affected by match-fixing scandals are clearly worried about this possibility.
It has gone so far that Italian players like Gianluigi Buffon has been quoted as saying that Spain wouldn't do this for their pride. It has also riled up some of the Spanish and Croatian players who are adamant that they will not do this, but it is definitely a possibility that has to be considered- Spain would still win the group, Croatia would go through and a potential big rival in Italy would be out of the competition so everyone (well not the Italians) would win.
Anyway, this is all suggesting the Italy result over Ireland is a 'gimme' and I don't believe that is the case no matter how bad the Irish have played so far in the tournament. Giovanni Trapattoni will really get his team up for his game and it was the one game the Irish really fancied for some reason so I expect them to put in a big effort.
Add in the fact that Italy have struggled to maintain their tempo and performance for a full game so far in the tournament and there is every chance the Irish can sneak a result that will put Italy out of the competition anyway.
It will be a tough game for the Italians, but it would be made all the tougher if the 2-2 scoreline haunts them again.
France have virtually got two feet into the Quarter Finals of the tournament thanks to their 0-2 win over the Ukraine yesterday and they either need one point from their last game with Sweden OR they need England to avoid defeat to Ukraine to ensure they are going through.
Even if France lost 0-1 to Sweden in their final game, an England loss would also see them through to the next round so they are in a really strong position. Their motivation for the game against Sweden may well be decided on Monday night once they figure out if finishing first or second will avoid meeting Spain in the Quarter Finals- I think the French are likely good enough to decide their own fate in the group and I expect they will do what it takes to avoid playing Spain.
The other game between Ukraine and England will be fascinating as a win would guarantee a place in the last eight, while England can also sit back and avoid defeat to make their way out of the group. It was a dramatic turnaround win over Sweden that has given England this leeway in their final game, but there were some real worries with the way they defended and I think they were fortunate to be playing a poor Swedish side in all honesty.
Ukraine didn't look all that much against France either so I think England, with the returning Wayne Rooney, will do enough to qualify. However, things will get a lot tougher with Spain most likely their opponents in the Quarter Finals so there is plenty to look forward to as the tournament marches on.
June 16th
Poland v Czech Republic Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14476-Poland-v-Czech-Republic.htm)
Greece v Russia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14477-Greece-v-Russia.htm)
June 17th
Denmark v Germany Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14488-Denmark-v-Germany.htm)
Portugal v Holland Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14489-Portugal-v-Holland.htm)
June 19th
Sweden v France Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14506-Sweden-v-France.htm)
Ukraine v England Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14507-Ukraine-v-England.htm)
MY PICKS: Poland to win and at least 3 goals to be scored (Quatro) @ 4.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Russia win both halves @ 5.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Germany to win both halves @ 4.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Portugal-Holland Over 4.5 goals @ 6.00 Bodog (1 Unit)
France to win and 3/4 goals scored @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
England to win and 3/4 goals scored @ 4.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Euro 2012 Update: 6-12, - 0.26 Units (28 Units Staked)
Friday, 15 June 2012
Tennis Picks June 15th
It was another day of surprises at the tournament in London as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga became the latest player to exit the Queens Club... It was more worrying hearing that he may have broken a finger and could miss out playing at Wimbledon in a couple of weeks time.
That would be a real disappointment as I think Tsonga is someone that could have caused plenty of problems for the usual suspects at that event and, particularly after the form he showed at the French Open, I think it would be a big loss to the Men's event which will become a little bit predictable otherwise.
With Juan Martin Del Potro already struggling, Robin Soderling unlikely to play before the 2013 season, and now Tsonga, the likes of Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will not see as many threats in the draw and that is an all around disappointment for the fans.
Picks:
Kevin Anderson v Grigor Dimitrov: I might be trying to ride the South African train a little too much, but I have serious reservations that he has been set as the underdog in this match against Grigor Dimitrov who is the up and coming player.
Granted, Dimitrov beat Anderson comfortably on the grass courts in Eastbourne last season, but he has lost the other two meetings against the big server and I think the Queens grass courts are some of the fastest ones that will be seen.
Dimitrov has a lot of shots in his armoury, but he can be a little loose in service games at times and that could be the difference here and I don't believe he is a justified favourite in this contest.
I could be wrong, but Anderson does look the call.
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Tommy Haas: I have a lot of respect for Tommy Haas as he is someone who could live comfortably in retirement, but plays on on the Tour as he wants his son to be able to remember that his father played tennis as a professional.
And it is not as if Haas is taking someone else's place in the draw- he qualified for the French Open by winning three matches and I think tournaments have every right to give him a Wild Card for events as he is a draw for the fans.
However, I like Tomas Berdych in the match against him as the big Czech player is more than comfortable on the grass courts and I think he has the serve that can eventually pressure Haas into mistakes.
Haas has done very well to get to the Quarter Final and he has already been given a Wild Card for Wimbledon, but this does look a step too far for him and I like Berdych to get through to a big Semi Final with potentially Rafael Nadal.
MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-2, + 7.76 Units (14 Units Staked)
That would be a real disappointment as I think Tsonga is someone that could have caused plenty of problems for the usual suspects at that event and, particularly after the form he showed at the French Open, I think it would be a big loss to the Men's event which will become a little bit predictable otherwise.
With Juan Martin Del Potro already struggling, Robin Soderling unlikely to play before the 2013 season, and now Tsonga, the likes of Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will not see as many threats in the draw and that is an all around disappointment for the fans.
Picks:
Kevin Anderson v Grigor Dimitrov: I might be trying to ride the South African train a little too much, but I have serious reservations that he has been set as the underdog in this match against Grigor Dimitrov who is the up and coming player.
Granted, Dimitrov beat Anderson comfortably on the grass courts in Eastbourne last season, but he has lost the other two meetings against the big server and I think the Queens grass courts are some of the fastest ones that will be seen.
Dimitrov has a lot of shots in his armoury, but he can be a little loose in service games at times and that could be the difference here and I don't believe he is a justified favourite in this contest.
I could be wrong, but Anderson does look the call.
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Tommy Haas: I have a lot of respect for Tommy Haas as he is someone who could live comfortably in retirement, but plays on on the Tour as he wants his son to be able to remember that his father played tennis as a professional.
And it is not as if Haas is taking someone else's place in the draw- he qualified for the French Open by winning three matches and I think tournaments have every right to give him a Wild Card for events as he is a draw for the fans.
However, I like Tomas Berdych in the match against him as the big Czech player is more than comfortable on the grass courts and I think he has the serve that can eventually pressure Haas into mistakes.
Haas has done very well to get to the Quarter Final and he has already been given a Wild Card for Wimbledon, but this does look a step too far for him and I like Berdych to get through to a big Semi Final with potentially Rafael Nadal.
MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-2, + 7.76 Units (14 Units Staked)
Thursday, 14 June 2012
Tennis Picks 14th June
I didn't make any picks yesterday as the rain delay meant the layers did not get any prices up so I didn't make enough research into the picks and decided to give it a miss.
It has been a good week for picking the underdogs as I have gone 3-1 with all four picks being the dog in the contest. Not sure that will keep working going forward, but it is always a good policy when the matches are closer as players make the transition from clay to grass.
A quick look at the results from Queens yesterday will show that Andy Murray and Andy Roddick were big surprise losers to Nicolas Mahut and Edouard Roger-Vasselin in their first matches with grass underneath the feet, while Marcos Baghdatis and Gilles Simon were another couple of favourites that lost.
Bare that in mind as players are still trying to get used to the surface with Wimbledon beginning under two weeks time.
Picks:
Kevin Anderson v Feliciano Lopez: I was fortunate enough to see Feliciano Lopez in live action on Wednesday and I was not totally convinced with his win over Steve Darcis as he didn't serve as well as Lopez can on the grass courts.
He could be in a for a really tough test against the big serving South African Kevin Anderson who will put additional pressure on the Lopez serve by generally holding his own and that could be the key in seeing the underdog come through this contest.
I am just not convinced that Lopez is at 100% following his retirement at the French Open and he won't want to exert himself too much with Wimbledon fast approaching. I just feel Anderson may be able to take advantage if Lopez' mind is elsewhere and I don't believe he should be the underdog when the Spaniard has some questions to answer about his fitness and mental state.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Florian Mayer: I know, I know... I said it can be tough to make the transition from clay to grass yet here I am taking a big favourite in his first grass court match of the season. Roger Federer is one of a few players that have usually made the transition fairly well in the past and I think this match up is to his liking.
I have also stated that Federer may be carrying an injury judging from his performances at the French Open and this will be a good test for him. Florian Mayer will enjoy the home support and has the tools to be a really awkward customer on the grass courts but taking on Federer is a different matter altogether.
The World Number 3 has also got a 3-0 head to head record against Mayer, including a straight sets win here at Halle, and he has found a way to get a double-break in a number of sets they have competed against one another... Another set secured by a double-break should see Federer cover this spread.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v Lukas Lacko: It has only been three days since Rafael Nadal completed his seventh win on the clay courts at Roland Garros, but he opens up his singles tournament on the grass courts in this match. Nadal has already partnered Marcel Granollers to a win in the doubles draw and the Spaniard is another of the few players that seamlessly moves from clay to grass as if nothing has changed.
I expect Nadal to play his usual game of fighting for everything on the court and not allowing his opponent to have a minutes rest. That has been the case in 2 of the 3 previous meetings with Lukas Lacko in the past which Nadal has won comfortably, although he did have a struggle in Doha back in January 2011 against the Slovakian.
Lacko has been pretty disappointing since that time and has not progressed as far as he perhaps should have despite being ranked at number 58 right now. He has been a little hit and miss on the grass courts and this could really depend on which side of bed Lacko has got out of ahead of this match.
However, no matter which Lacko turns up, he is going to have a real fight on his hands and a 6-2, 6-4 result looks on the cards.
MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 1.95 Panbet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-1, + 5.26 Units (8 Units Staked)
It has been a good week for picking the underdogs as I have gone 3-1 with all four picks being the dog in the contest. Not sure that will keep working going forward, but it is always a good policy when the matches are closer as players make the transition from clay to grass.
A quick look at the results from Queens yesterday will show that Andy Murray and Andy Roddick were big surprise losers to Nicolas Mahut and Edouard Roger-Vasselin in their first matches with grass underneath the feet, while Marcos Baghdatis and Gilles Simon were another couple of favourites that lost.
Bare that in mind as players are still trying to get used to the surface with Wimbledon beginning under two weeks time.
Picks:
Kevin Anderson v Feliciano Lopez: I was fortunate enough to see Feliciano Lopez in live action on Wednesday and I was not totally convinced with his win over Steve Darcis as he didn't serve as well as Lopez can on the grass courts.
He could be in a for a really tough test against the big serving South African Kevin Anderson who will put additional pressure on the Lopez serve by generally holding his own and that could be the key in seeing the underdog come through this contest.
I am just not convinced that Lopez is at 100% following his retirement at the French Open and he won't want to exert himself too much with Wimbledon fast approaching. I just feel Anderson may be able to take advantage if Lopez' mind is elsewhere and I don't believe he should be the underdog when the Spaniard has some questions to answer about his fitness and mental state.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Florian Mayer: I know, I know... I said it can be tough to make the transition from clay to grass yet here I am taking a big favourite in his first grass court match of the season. Roger Federer is one of a few players that have usually made the transition fairly well in the past and I think this match up is to his liking.
I have also stated that Federer may be carrying an injury judging from his performances at the French Open and this will be a good test for him. Florian Mayer will enjoy the home support and has the tools to be a really awkward customer on the grass courts but taking on Federer is a different matter altogether.
The World Number 3 has also got a 3-0 head to head record against Mayer, including a straight sets win here at Halle, and he has found a way to get a double-break in a number of sets they have competed against one another... Another set secured by a double-break should see Federer cover this spread.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v Lukas Lacko: It has only been three days since Rafael Nadal completed his seventh win on the clay courts at Roland Garros, but he opens up his singles tournament on the grass courts in this match. Nadal has already partnered Marcel Granollers to a win in the doubles draw and the Spaniard is another of the few players that seamlessly moves from clay to grass as if nothing has changed.
I expect Nadal to play his usual game of fighting for everything on the court and not allowing his opponent to have a minutes rest. That has been the case in 2 of the 3 previous meetings with Lukas Lacko in the past which Nadal has won comfortably, although he did have a struggle in Doha back in January 2011 against the Slovakian.
Lacko has been pretty disappointing since that time and has not progressed as far as he perhaps should have despite being ranked at number 58 right now. He has been a little hit and miss on the grass courts and this could really depend on which side of bed Lacko has got out of ahead of this match.
However, no matter which Lacko turns up, he is going to have a real fight on his hands and a 6-2, 6-4 result looks on the cards.
MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 1.95 Panbet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-1, + 5.26 Units (8 Units Staked)
Tuesday, 12 June 2012
Euro 2012 Group Stages Picks- Round 2 (June 12-15)
The first stage of the European Championships were completed last night and it has been a tough tournament to get a full read on at the moment.
Group A started off fairly as expected with the hosts Poland struggling to handle the pressure and being a little fortunate to actually get through the match with a point. The other game in the group saw the Russians totally outplay and dismantle the Czech Republic and put themselves in control of the group after just one game.
Group B saw the biggest surprise so far in the event as Holland were beaten by Denmark- it was another win for luck and fortune as the Danes were outplayed, but the Dutch decided they would miss a number of chances that would have been gobbled up on another day. The defeat has left Holland in a really tough position in the group as anything less than a draw (or possibly a win if Denmark beat Portugal) against Germany will see them exit the tournament before it has really got started.
That would not have been expected by the fans back home considering they had reached the Final of the World Cup just two years ago.
Germany then followed up with a tough and perhaps a little undeserved win over the Portuguese and are now the favourites to win the group and qualify for the last eight. However, they may be a little concerned with the nature of the win as they struggled to break down an organised defence, although the early stages of a tournament are about the three points and getting out of the group rather than any mind blowing performances. The Germans also know avoiding defeat against Holland should put them in the driving seat to qualify as well as putting their rivals in a desperate spot.
Spain and Italy duked out a 1-1 draw in their game in Group C and that was the most entertaining game of the tournament as both teams pushed forward for the win. I am not sure the tactic of playing six midfielders and no striker will work for Spain going forward and I actually think they looked a lot more dangerous when Fernando Torres came on to lead the line. It is much easier for defences against teams that play everything in front of them, like Spain had to with no one leading the line, and the Italians struggled a little to contain Torres' runs once he joined the game. In fact, it took a couple of misses from the striker from good positions that saved Italy a point.
Neither one of those nations can take qualification for granted after Croatia beat the Republic of Ireland 3-1 in the other game in the group. The Irish were a little unfortunate as one goal looked offside, while another saw the ball hit Shay Given on the head after coming off the post.
It was also bad timing that they conceded two minutes either side of half time and the team did look demoralised at the end of the game. I think the result puts pay to the Irish chances of getting through to the Quarter Finals, but also leaves both Italy and Spain in the position of not being able to afford to drop points when they meet Ireland. Croatia's two goal win also gives them a buffer when it comes to goal difference and has made the match between themselves and Italy absolutely huge on Thursday.
Finally, England kicked off their campaign and it is interesting to hear the mixed reaction to their 1-1 draw with France to open Group D. My personal view is that England looked average going forward, but were well organised in defence- that means it will be interesting to see how they react when the onus is on them to attack and win the game rather than avoiding defeat which they clearly were happy to do in the opening game.
France were a very good technically, but I think Karim Benzema needs to make more of an effort to get on the end of the nice passing moves the likes of Samir Nasri and Franck Ribery instigate. Too often, Benzema came far too deep and allowed England to compact the game with no threat of a ball over the top and that needs to change if the French are going to justify dark horse status.
Both England and France, like Italy and Spain, will be wary that Ukraine beat Sweden in the other game and are now top of the group. It does mean that both England and France must also beat Sweden to give themselves a chance of qualifying, although neither the Ukraine or Sweden looked massive threats.
The game between France and Ukraine on Friday will be very interesting to see exactly where the Ukrainians are in terms of actually competing to get out of this group. France provide a real test, but Ukraine have a lot of momentum and it could be tough for Les Bleus who will also know a defeat leaves them in a desperate position.
June 12th
Greece v Czech Republic Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14432-Greece-v-Czech-Republic.htm)
Poland v Russia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14433-Poland-v-Russia.htm)
June 13th
That was the most frustrating day of the tournament as both teams I picked decided to take the ultimate way out... Greece decided to not turn up for the first half and conceded twice in the opening six minutes, while Russia seemed to be playing far too cockily in the second half and screwed up a number of good looking opportunities to grab a vital second goal and ultimately paid the price to a Poland team that may have won the game in the end.
Here is hoping for a better time after a 0-6 run.
Denmark v Portugal Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14437-Denmark-v-Portugal.htm)
Holland v Germany Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14448-Holland-v-Germany.htm)
June 14th
Italy v Croatia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14453-Italy-v-Croatia.htm)
Spain v Republic of Ireland Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14454-Spain-v-Republic-of-Ireland.htm)
June 15th
Ukraine v France Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14464-Ukraine-v-France.htm)
England v Sweden Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14465-England-v-Sweden.htm)
MY PICKS: Greece @ 3.40 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Russia @ 2.50 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Portugal to win and at least 3 goals scored @ 4.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Holland-Germany Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Italy to win by one goal @ 4.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Spain - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
France to win and at least 3 goals scored @ 4.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
England to win by 1 goal (English Handicap Draw) @ 3.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Euro 2012 Update: 5-7, + 1.94 Units (22 Units Staked)
Group A started off fairly as expected with the hosts Poland struggling to handle the pressure and being a little fortunate to actually get through the match with a point. The other game in the group saw the Russians totally outplay and dismantle the Czech Republic and put themselves in control of the group after just one game.
Group B saw the biggest surprise so far in the event as Holland were beaten by Denmark- it was another win for luck and fortune as the Danes were outplayed, but the Dutch decided they would miss a number of chances that would have been gobbled up on another day. The defeat has left Holland in a really tough position in the group as anything less than a draw (or possibly a win if Denmark beat Portugal) against Germany will see them exit the tournament before it has really got started.
That would not have been expected by the fans back home considering they had reached the Final of the World Cup just two years ago.
Germany then followed up with a tough and perhaps a little undeserved win over the Portuguese and are now the favourites to win the group and qualify for the last eight. However, they may be a little concerned with the nature of the win as they struggled to break down an organised defence, although the early stages of a tournament are about the three points and getting out of the group rather than any mind blowing performances. The Germans also know avoiding defeat against Holland should put them in the driving seat to qualify as well as putting their rivals in a desperate spot.
Spain and Italy duked out a 1-1 draw in their game in Group C and that was the most entertaining game of the tournament as both teams pushed forward for the win. I am not sure the tactic of playing six midfielders and no striker will work for Spain going forward and I actually think they looked a lot more dangerous when Fernando Torres came on to lead the line. It is much easier for defences against teams that play everything in front of them, like Spain had to with no one leading the line, and the Italians struggled a little to contain Torres' runs once he joined the game. In fact, it took a couple of misses from the striker from good positions that saved Italy a point.
Neither one of those nations can take qualification for granted after Croatia beat the Republic of Ireland 3-1 in the other game in the group. The Irish were a little unfortunate as one goal looked offside, while another saw the ball hit Shay Given on the head after coming off the post.
It was also bad timing that they conceded two minutes either side of half time and the team did look demoralised at the end of the game. I think the result puts pay to the Irish chances of getting through to the Quarter Finals, but also leaves both Italy and Spain in the position of not being able to afford to drop points when they meet Ireland. Croatia's two goal win also gives them a buffer when it comes to goal difference and has made the match between themselves and Italy absolutely huge on Thursday.
Finally, England kicked off their campaign and it is interesting to hear the mixed reaction to their 1-1 draw with France to open Group D. My personal view is that England looked average going forward, but were well organised in defence- that means it will be interesting to see how they react when the onus is on them to attack and win the game rather than avoiding defeat which they clearly were happy to do in the opening game.
France were a very good technically, but I think Karim Benzema needs to make more of an effort to get on the end of the nice passing moves the likes of Samir Nasri and Franck Ribery instigate. Too often, Benzema came far too deep and allowed England to compact the game with no threat of a ball over the top and that needs to change if the French are going to justify dark horse status.
Both England and France, like Italy and Spain, will be wary that Ukraine beat Sweden in the other game and are now top of the group. It does mean that both England and France must also beat Sweden to give themselves a chance of qualifying, although neither the Ukraine or Sweden looked massive threats.
The game between France and Ukraine on Friday will be very interesting to see exactly where the Ukrainians are in terms of actually competing to get out of this group. France provide a real test, but Ukraine have a lot of momentum and it could be tough for Les Bleus who will also know a defeat leaves them in a desperate position.
June 12th
Greece v Czech Republic Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14432-Greece-v-Czech-Republic.htm)
Poland v Russia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14433-Poland-v-Russia.htm)
June 13th
That was the most frustrating day of the tournament as both teams I picked decided to take the ultimate way out... Greece decided to not turn up for the first half and conceded twice in the opening six minutes, while Russia seemed to be playing far too cockily in the second half and screwed up a number of good looking opportunities to grab a vital second goal and ultimately paid the price to a Poland team that may have won the game in the end.
Here is hoping for a better time after a 0-6 run.
Denmark v Portugal Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14437-Denmark-v-Portugal.htm)
Holland v Germany Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14448-Holland-v-Germany.htm)
June 14th
Italy v Croatia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14453-Italy-v-Croatia.htm)
Spain v Republic of Ireland Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14454-Spain-v-Republic-of-Ireland.htm)
June 15th
Ukraine v France Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14464-Ukraine-v-France.htm)
England v Sweden Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14465-England-v-Sweden.htm)
MY PICKS: Greece @ 3.40 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Russia @ 2.50 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Portugal to win and at least 3 goals scored @ 4.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Holland-Germany Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Italy to win by one goal @ 4.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Spain - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
France to win and at least 3 goals scored @ 4.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
England to win by 1 goal (English Handicap Draw) @ 3.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Euro 2012 Update: 5-7, + 1.94 Units (22 Units Staked)
Tennis Picks June 12th
The entire Monday schedule at Queens fell victim to the poor weather that has been affecting London which means the matches will all have run over to Tuesday from the First Round. However, the weather is not expected to improve enough overnight to suggest we will have much play before the afternoon and that already leaves the tournament playing catch up, particularly as the rest of the week looks like it will see a number of rain delays.
The tournament at Halle is up and running and there is another few First Round matches taking place today, although there is still no word whether or not Rafael Nadal will be taking part having completed his win at Roland Garros on Monday.
Radek Stepanek v Andreas Seppi: I am going to take Radek Stepanek to continue his domination of Andreas Seppi despite the Italian having the better season of the two players.
Seppi won a tournament on the grass courts at Eastbourne last season a week before Wimbledon was to start, but I think Stepanek's game transfers well onto this surface and I do like his chances to record a win, although it could go the distance.
However, Stepanek is set as the underdog and that looks like providing tempting value considering he has won all 4 meetings with Seppi in the past, including twice on the clay courts that should favour the Italian in the last 12 months.
I expect Stepanek's serve-volley game to cause a few problems for Seppi and I think Seppi's serve is always liable to letting him down and that could be the difference between the players in this one.
MY PICKS: Ivo Karlovic @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units) Picked Monday
Lukas Rosol @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units) Picked Monday
Radek Stepanek @ 2.38 Stan James (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)