Week 4 was a tough week for my picks as so many looked to be in a great position only to be blown with 4th Quarter meltdowns.
The picks that hurt the most were the Atlanta - 4.5 and Philadelphia - 8.5 picks, especially considering both had 20 point leads in the 3rd Quarter yet allowed their poorer opponents to come back and cover the spreads.
Tampa Bay decided they would kill themselves considering the Colts were struggling to get much going on Defense on their own.
In saying that, I also made a couple of really bad calls with St Louis being the most obvious one.
The one thing I am holding on to right now is I am reading the games fairly well, I just need that bit of luck to send me going back to the profit side of things.
WEEK 4 THOUGHTS
1) Atlanta have spent too much bringing in Julio Jones: This is absolutely, positively, totally nothing to do against Julio Jones who is really a top WR in the making, but the Falcons gave up a lot to bring him in and the lack of depth in other areas of the team are hurting them.
Atlanta have rolled the dice to win now, but the Offensive Line is struggling, the Defense made Tavaris Jackson (yes, THAT Tavaris Jackson) look like Tom Brady and now they go home to face the Green Bay Packers.
The Falcons are in one of the toughest Divisions in the NFL and could have a hard time making the Play Offs a year after finishing with the best NFC record in the regular season.
2) Miami take the lead in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes: I am a Miami fan so the best thing I can think of this season is that at least there is a good chance of picking up Andrew Luck in the Draft next April.
Chad Henne has struggled as the starter for the Dolphins, but his injury means Matt Moore comes in and I really have no faith in him.
The Dolphins Defense is not as good as people thought it might be at the start of the season (I was not one of those and have not been as surprised as some) and they have a tough schedule.
Add in the problems of winning at home and I can only see them winning 2 games which could be enough to 'win' the overall Number 1 Pick.
3) Philadelphia Eagles are already staring down the barrel: Ok, I am being a little dramatic by saying that, but the Eagles are in a really tough Division and they are 1-3, blowing yet another game with a poor 4th Quarter display.
A real problem is the much vaunted Defense that has been torched this season, and that is something they need to resolve quickly as Washington and the New York Giants both look capable of doing big things this season and the 'Dream Team' could find themselves without any commitments in January.
They face a big game at Buffalo next week and, while not a 'must win', they need to show some real character against a tough opponent on the road.
4) Donovon McNabb is just about done in Minnesota: The Vikings lost again this week to move to 0-4 and effectively end their chances of making the Play Offs in a Division containing Green Bay and Detroit, even though they have had a tougher start to the season in terms of opponents than it may seem.
That start means they may as well give Christian Ponder a chance at QB and see whether he is going to be good enough in the NFL- with someone like Andrew Luck available in the Draft, the Vikings would be foolish to not see what they have in Ponder and they are better off doing that sooner rather than later.
McNabb has had a very good NFL career, but his play has been erratic this season, and he looks like he has lost a couple yards in his play.
I am beginning to think Mike Shanahan was not as silly as some of us thought when he ditched McNabb for Rex Grossman this offseason.
5) The Marion Barber celebration for his first TD as a Chicago Bear really did make me chuckle: This has to be the best thing I saw this weekend... as the boys on ESPN say, C'Mon Man http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3VdgBdkGZ4
POWER RANKINGS TOP 10
1) Green Bay Packers (4-0): As I said last week, this Offense can't be stopped and the only way to beat them right now is to outscore them... Good luck with that.
2) Detroit Lions (4-0): Another huge comeback in the 2nd half in a 2nd consecutive road game shows the heart they have. They have a big night on Monday Night Football against the Bears next.
3) New Orleans Saints (3-1): Only defeat to the Packers prevents them being unbeaten
4) Baltimore Ravens (3-1): As poor as the Offense was, the Defense was impressive
5) New England Patriots (3-1): Impressive win in Oakland
6) New York Giants (3-1): Playing some very good football over the last 2 weeks
7) San Diego Chargers (3-1): A good start under Norv Turner and cream of the crop in AFC West.
8) Houston Texans (3-1): Big win over the Steelers but at a BIG cost if Andre Johnson is out for an extended period of time.
9) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1): Need to cut some of the mistakes if they want to keep tabs with the Saints.
10) Washington Redskins (3-1): The Defense will help keep them in a lot of games this season.
MY TOP 5 and BOTTOM 5
1) Green Bay Packers 32) Miami Dolphins
2) New England Patriots 31) Indianapolis Colts
3) New Orleans Saints 30) St Louis Rams
4) Baltimore Ravens 29) Minnesota Vikings
5) Detroit Lions 28) Seattle Seahawks
WEEK 5 Picks and Previews
The Picks here will be updated as the week progresses right here- you can follow me on Twitter where I update any time I have put some previews and picks up. This is key to grabbing the same lines I will be rather than waiting until Sunday and finding spreads may well have moved over/below key numbers.
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11960-Denver-Broncos-v-San-Diego-Chargers.htm) LOCKED THURSDAY
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11965-Atlanta-Falcons-v-Green-Bay-Packers.htm) LOCKED THURSDAY
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11971-Houston-Texans-v-Oakland-Raiders.htm) LOCKED SATURDAY RIP AL DAVIS 1929-2011
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11972-New-York-Giants-v-Seattle-Seahawks.htm) LOCKED SATURDAY
Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11973-Buffalo-Bills-v-Philadelphia-Eagles.htm) LOCKED SATURDAY
Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11974-Pittsburgh-Steelers-v-Tennessee-Titans.htm)
New York Jets @ New England Patriots Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11975-New-England-Patriots-v-New-York-Jets.htm)
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11979-Detroit-Lions-v-Chicago-Bears.htm) LOCKED IN SUNDAY
MY PICKS: Denver Broncos + 4 Points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders + 6 Points @ 1.85 BetFred (3 Units)
New York Giants - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (3 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 3 Points @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 7.5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Detroit Lions - 5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
WEEK 4: 4-7, - 6.66 Units
WEEK 3: 4-3-1, + 2.77 Units
WEEK 2: 3-5, - 5.03 Units
WEEK 1: 4-2, + 2.53 Units
Featured post
NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4 (Monday 18th May-Monday 25th May)
We are going to be down to the final four teams in the NBA once Game 7 of the Second Round Series between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland ...
Tuesday, 4 October 2011
Things we Learned from the Weekend Football (October 1-2)
It was a very interesting weekend for me as Saturday looked to have killed me and left me in a big hole this month, mainly thanks to some sorry officiating and bad luck with injuries. However, the outlook looks much brighter as much of the damage was saved thanks to a strong Sunday when all 3 picks came in, including the biggest pick I made this week.
Below is a few of my thoughts from the weekend as we get ready for a 2 week break from the Premier League:
1) Jack Rodwell's sending off was rightly rescinded, now what happens to Martin Atkinson?: The decision made by Martin Atkinson essentially helped my 'overs' pick fall down, but it was the shocking nature and terrible decision making that was in question.
Everton learned earlier that Jack Rodwell will not be suspended as the FA, rightly, decided to reverse the decision.
All of this means something has to be done about Martin Atkinson, the most card happy referee in the Premier League. He has to be demoted, in my opinion, as he should not be put forward to referee top flight games when he cannot make the simple decisions- if the tackle was made 30 yards from him, I would be more forgiving, but he cocked up from all of 2 feet and that is unacceptable.
Jack Rodwell was going to miss 3 games, I think that suspension should be given to Martin Atkinson and then he should be forced to referee Championship games until he can prove he is good enough not to put his dirty rubber stamp on a Premier League game again.
2) Manchester United have real defensive concerns: The Basel game made it clear that United were having a few problems at the back, but Norwich became the latest team to expose these weaknesses. I am less entitled to blame the defence as I feel they are given little to no protection from the midfield, allowing teams to break with 4-5 players breaking on the back 4.
Nemanja Vidic has been the biggest loss as his experience and leadership quality really would help the younger members of the back 5, and United will be desperate to the get the Captain back in the team ahead of the next 3 Premier League games at Liverpool, at home against Manchester City and at Everton.
3) I have said it before, but Arsenal are going nowhere with that defence: I said after Arsenal made their transfers in August that I didn't believe Arsene Wenger had improved his squad that much and they were panic buys from a manager under pressure.
Arsenal are conceding far too many goals to earn a top 4 place this season, with the 2 goals conceded at Tottenham meaning they have conceded 14 goals in 3 away games since drawing at Newcastle, and the Gunners are well off the pace compared with Liverpool, Spurs and the top 3 from last season.
Bacary Sagna is the latest injury at the back when he unfortunately broke his leg on Sunday, Thomas Vermaelan is a long term absentee, and I see problems for Wenger.
They are coming up to an extremely soft section of the schedule in the next few weeks, facing Sunderland, Stoke, West Brom, Fulham and trips to Norwich and Wigan, with only a trip to Chelsea being a big test.
I would expect Arsenal to start moving up the table, but defensively they need to improve.
4) Wigan and Bolton are both in a bit of bother: Both of these sides look like they are going to be in for a real scrap for their Premier League lives judging from their early season form.
Bolton had ended the season with a really bad run of form and they have lost 11 of 12 games in the Premier League, while Wigan continue to look like a side struggling to score goals.
Wigan had much more of the possession against Villa on Saturday, yet lost without causing too many problems, and it looks like a long season for both of these sides.
Below is a few of my thoughts from the weekend as we get ready for a 2 week break from the Premier League:
1) Jack Rodwell's sending off was rightly rescinded, now what happens to Martin Atkinson?: The decision made by Martin Atkinson essentially helped my 'overs' pick fall down, but it was the shocking nature and terrible decision making that was in question.
Everton learned earlier that Jack Rodwell will not be suspended as the FA, rightly, decided to reverse the decision.
All of this means something has to be done about Martin Atkinson, the most card happy referee in the Premier League. He has to be demoted, in my opinion, as he should not be put forward to referee top flight games when he cannot make the simple decisions- if the tackle was made 30 yards from him, I would be more forgiving, but he cocked up from all of 2 feet and that is unacceptable.
Jack Rodwell was going to miss 3 games, I think that suspension should be given to Martin Atkinson and then he should be forced to referee Championship games until he can prove he is good enough not to put his dirty rubber stamp on a Premier League game again.
2) Manchester United have real defensive concerns: The Basel game made it clear that United were having a few problems at the back, but Norwich became the latest team to expose these weaknesses. I am less entitled to blame the defence as I feel they are given little to no protection from the midfield, allowing teams to break with 4-5 players breaking on the back 4.
Nemanja Vidic has been the biggest loss as his experience and leadership quality really would help the younger members of the back 5, and United will be desperate to the get the Captain back in the team ahead of the next 3 Premier League games at Liverpool, at home against Manchester City and at Everton.
3) I have said it before, but Arsenal are going nowhere with that defence: I said after Arsenal made their transfers in August that I didn't believe Arsene Wenger had improved his squad that much and they were panic buys from a manager under pressure.
Arsenal are conceding far too many goals to earn a top 4 place this season, with the 2 goals conceded at Tottenham meaning they have conceded 14 goals in 3 away games since drawing at Newcastle, and the Gunners are well off the pace compared with Liverpool, Spurs and the top 3 from last season.
Bacary Sagna is the latest injury at the back when he unfortunately broke his leg on Sunday, Thomas Vermaelan is a long term absentee, and I see problems for Wenger.
They are coming up to an extremely soft section of the schedule in the next few weeks, facing Sunderland, Stoke, West Brom, Fulham and trips to Norwich and Wigan, with only a trip to Chelsea being a big test.
I would expect Arsenal to start moving up the table, but defensively they need to improve.
4) Wigan and Bolton are both in a bit of bother: Both of these sides look like they are going to be in for a real scrap for their Premier League lives judging from their early season form.
Bolton had ended the season with a really bad run of form and they have lost 11 of 12 games in the Premier League, while Wigan continue to look like a side struggling to score goals.
Wigan had much more of the possession against Villa on Saturday, yet lost without causing too many problems, and it looks like a long season for both of these sides.
Saturday, 1 October 2011
Lady Luck, I'm sorry, I REALLY want you back...
This is the latest picture of me this Saturday afternoon:
I cannot believe the kind of luck I am getting from the picks, but I am more pissed off that this week it is not down to a great goal, or a bad defensive mistake, but dumb referees and linesmen who cannot do their simple jobs right.
I knew I should have listened to Lady Luck more often, but she has deserted me and left me with this mess:
Everton v Liverpool (Pick Over 2.5 Goals): Chances at both ends early and it looks set to be an exciting game with a few goals to boot UNTIL the referee inexplicably kills all of Everton's momentum by sending off Jack Rodwell for a tackle where he cleanly won the ball and barely touched Luis Suarez.
An absolutely scandalous decision that put the pick immediately in jeopardy, but then 'Lady Luck' decided to tease me: Liverpool missed a penalty and hit the underside of the bar before half time... They then proceed to score two goals before hitting the inside of the post in the last 2 minutes and there was even time for a possible penalty for Everton.
Blackburn v Man City (Pick Sergio Aguero to score anytime): He starts but is injured after 26 minutes and has to come off... City then proceed to score 4 times and Samir Nasri, who replaced Aguero, is on the scoresheet.
Wolves v Newcastle (Pick Draw): Wolves start of terribly, go 0-2 down at half time and I think the pick is dead... Lady Luck, but mainly the officials, decide to make sure it stays dead.
First Wolves are given a free kick when the incident supposedly occured 2 yards INSIDE the box- so the referee thought it was a foul but couldn't see the player was inside the box.
Wolves pull a goal back late and then score the equaliser... Until 'Lady Luck' decides to screw me again as the linesman thinks the ball has gone off first, a decision being criticised on the BBC and on Sky immediately after it happens... Gee thanks, just wish I had a job where I could completely cock something up and still get paid and possibly promoted a week later.
Now I am not one for whining when things are going wrong, but this kind of crap has been going on for far too long so I want to issue an apology:
Lady Luck, I am truly sorry for thinking I don't need you, but I am lost without and you and will never mess with you again. Tonight I will take you out for a slap up meal, drive you into town for the movie YOU want to watch, and organise a full spa day for you and your best friend.
It's been 6 weeks, I miss you.
(Apology to you guys who have taken these picks, it's been a rough time for all of us and just looking for the Sunday games and American Football picks to recover this week).
I cannot believe the kind of luck I am getting from the picks, but I am more pissed off that this week it is not down to a great goal, or a bad defensive mistake, but dumb referees and linesmen who cannot do their simple jobs right.
I knew I should have listened to Lady Luck more often, but she has deserted me and left me with this mess:
Everton v Liverpool (Pick Over 2.5 Goals): Chances at both ends early and it looks set to be an exciting game with a few goals to boot UNTIL the referee inexplicably kills all of Everton's momentum by sending off Jack Rodwell for a tackle where he cleanly won the ball and barely touched Luis Suarez.
An absolutely scandalous decision that put the pick immediately in jeopardy, but then 'Lady Luck' decided to tease me: Liverpool missed a penalty and hit the underside of the bar before half time... They then proceed to score two goals before hitting the inside of the post in the last 2 minutes and there was even time for a possible penalty for Everton.
Blackburn v Man City (Pick Sergio Aguero to score anytime): He starts but is injured after 26 minutes and has to come off... City then proceed to score 4 times and Samir Nasri, who replaced Aguero, is on the scoresheet.
Wolves v Newcastle (Pick Draw): Wolves start of terribly, go 0-2 down at half time and I think the pick is dead... Lady Luck, but mainly the officials, decide to make sure it stays dead.
First Wolves are given a free kick when the incident supposedly occured 2 yards INSIDE the box- so the referee thought it was a foul but couldn't see the player was inside the box.
Wolves pull a goal back late and then score the equaliser... Until 'Lady Luck' decides to screw me again as the linesman thinks the ball has gone off first, a decision being criticised on the BBC and on Sky immediately after it happens... Gee thanks, just wish I had a job where I could completely cock something up and still get paid and possibly promoted a week later.
Now I am not one for whining when things are going wrong, but this kind of crap has been going on for far too long so I want to issue an apology:
Lady Luck, I am truly sorry for thinking I don't need you, but I am lost without and you and will never mess with you again. Tonight I will take you out for a slap up meal, drive you into town for the movie YOU want to watch, and organise a full spa day for you and your best friend.
It's been 6 weeks, I miss you.
(Apology to you guys who have taken these picks, it's been a rough time for all of us and just looking for the Sunday games and American Football picks to recover this week).
Thursday, 29 September 2011
English Football Weekend Picks (October 1st-2nd)
Wow, September kicked my ass as far as picking English and European football matches were concerned, and it has been tough to take, especially when you look at the number of games that were literally taken away from me in the last 5 minutes.
Unfortunately, football is a 90 minute game, but it has left a sour taste in the mouth and I am hoping the ridiculous amounts of bad luck I feel I have had are no officially over as we move into October.
There are so many sites out there that will boast about wins, yet say nothing when they have a losing run but I don't want to be part of that. I got absolutely killed in September, and I won't lie about that- it's on me to perform better and I will try and do better this month while not chasing my picks.
Fortunately the College Football Picks have really helped me out this month, while I have built a heavy profit from the tennis over the last 3 months that I can take the hit- but only once will I expect to have a month like I just had.
As with my College Football and NFL Picks, these will be staggered over a couple of days as I look my plays in the books.
You can follow me on Twitter where I will also state when more games have been put up, and otherwise let's hope for a happier month to come.
Picks and Previews:
Manchester United v Norwich City Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11865-Manchester-United-v-Norwich-City.htm)
Blackburn Rovers v Manchester City Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11867-Blackburn-Rovers-v-Manchester-City.htm)
Aston Villa v Wigan Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11869-Aston-Villa-v-Wigan.htm)
Wolves v Newcastle United Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11870-Wolves-v-Newcastle-United.htm)
Everton v Liverpool Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11874-Everton-v-Liverpool.htm)
Bolton Wanderers v Chelsea Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11875-Bolton-Wanderers-v-Chelsea.htm)
Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11885-Tottenham-Hotspur-v-Arsenal.htm)
Fulham v QPR Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11904-Fulham-v-QPR.htm)
Barnsley v Coventry Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11889-Barnsley-v-Coventry.htm)
Reading v Middlesbrough Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11892-Reading-v-Middlesbrough.htm)
Crystal Palace v West Ham Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11897-Crystal-Palace-v-West-Ham.htm)
MY PICKS: Nani to score anytime @ 2.88 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Sergio Aguero to score anytime @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Wigan + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)
Wolves-Newcastle United Draw @ 3.40 BetFred (1 Unit)
Everton-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 BetFred (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (4 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.20 BetFred (2 Units)
Fulham-QPR Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Coventry @ 3.30 Stan James (1 Unit)
Reading-Middlesbrough Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Crystal Palace-West Ham Time of last goal 73 minutes or later @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
SEPTEMBER: - 25.31 Units
AUGUST: + 7.94 Units
Unfortunately, football is a 90 minute game, but it has left a sour taste in the mouth and I am hoping the ridiculous amounts of bad luck I feel I have had are no officially over as we move into October.
There are so many sites out there that will boast about wins, yet say nothing when they have a losing run but I don't want to be part of that. I got absolutely killed in September, and I won't lie about that- it's on me to perform better and I will try and do better this month while not chasing my picks.
Fortunately the College Football Picks have really helped me out this month, while I have built a heavy profit from the tennis over the last 3 months that I can take the hit- but only once will I expect to have a month like I just had.
As with my College Football and NFL Picks, these will be staggered over a couple of days as I look my plays in the books.
You can follow me on Twitter where I will also state when more games have been put up, and otherwise let's hope for a happier month to come.
Picks and Previews:
Manchester United v Norwich City Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11865-Manchester-United-v-Norwich-City.htm)
Blackburn Rovers v Manchester City Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11867-Blackburn-Rovers-v-Manchester-City.htm)
Aston Villa v Wigan Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11869-Aston-Villa-v-Wigan.htm)
Wolves v Newcastle United Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11870-Wolves-v-Newcastle-United.htm)
Everton v Liverpool Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11874-Everton-v-Liverpool.htm)
Bolton Wanderers v Chelsea Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11875-Bolton-Wanderers-v-Chelsea.htm)
Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11885-Tottenham-Hotspur-v-Arsenal.htm)
Fulham v QPR Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11904-Fulham-v-QPR.htm)
Barnsley v Coventry Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11889-Barnsley-v-Coventry.htm)
Reading v Middlesbrough Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11892-Reading-v-Middlesbrough.htm)
Crystal Palace v West Ham Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11897-Crystal-Palace-v-West-Ham.htm)
MY PICKS: Nani to score anytime @ 2.88 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Sergio Aguero to score anytime @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Wigan + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)
Wolves-Newcastle United Draw @ 3.40 BetFred (1 Unit)
Everton-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 BetFred (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (4 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.20 BetFred (2 Units)
Fulham-QPR Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Coventry @ 3.30 Stan James (1 Unit)
Reading-Middlesbrough Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Crystal Palace-West Ham Time of last goal 73 minutes or later @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
SEPTEMBER: - 25.31 Units
AUGUST: + 7.94 Units
College Football Week 5 Picks and Previews
It was another decent week for the Picks in Week 4 that has continued the profits rolling in, but it is just making me more and more wary that a bad week is going to catch up with me sooner rather than later.
I will be staggering my Picks for Week 5 over the next couple of days, but I have some early plays out.
Keep checking back on Twitter to see when I have released some more picks- this week the Picks will begin on Thursday with South Florida's visit to Pittsburgh.
Week 5 Picks:
South Florida Bulls @ Pittsburgh Panthers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11840-Pittsburgh-Panthers-v-South-Florida-Bulls.htm)
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Florida Gators Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11842-Florida-Gators-v-Alabama.htm)
Nevada Wolf Pack @ Boise State Broncos Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11845-Boise-State-v-Nevada-Wolf-Pack.htm)
UCLA Bruins @ Stanford Cardinal Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11859-Stanford-Cardinal-v-UCLA-Bruins.htm)
Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Wisconsin Badgers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11861-Wisconsin-Badgers-v-Nebraska-Cornhuskers.htm)
Baylor Bears @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11862-Kansas-State-v-Baylor-Bears.htm)
MY PICKS: South Florida Bulls - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Boise State Broncos - 27 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal - 20 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers - 9 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
WEEK 4: 4-2, + 1.80 Units
I will be staggering my Picks for Week 5 over the next couple of days, but I have some early plays out.
Keep checking back on Twitter to see when I have released some more picks- this week the Picks will begin on Thursday with South Florida's visit to Pittsburgh.
Week 5 Picks:
South Florida Bulls @ Pittsburgh Panthers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11840-Pittsburgh-Panthers-v-South-Florida-Bulls.htm)
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Florida Gators Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11842-Florida-Gators-v-Alabama.htm)
Nevada Wolf Pack @ Boise State Broncos Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11845-Boise-State-v-Nevada-Wolf-Pack.htm)
UCLA Bruins @ Stanford Cardinal Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11859-Stanford-Cardinal-v-UCLA-Bruins.htm)
Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Wisconsin Badgers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11861-Wisconsin-Badgers-v-Nebraska-Cornhuskers.htm)
Baylor Bears @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11862-Kansas-State-v-Baylor-Bears.htm)
MY PICKS: South Florida Bulls - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Boise State Broncos - 27 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal - 20 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers - 9 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
WEEK 4: 4-2, + 1.80 Units
WEEK 3: 5-1, + 3.60 Units
WEEK 2: 3-0, + 2.82 Units
WEEK 1: 4-0, + 3.74 Units
Wednesday, 28 September 2011
NFL Week 4 Picks and Previews
The NFL has had plenty of strange results over the first 3 Weeks of the season, but there is probably nothing more surprising than seeing the Buffalo Bills at 3-0, the only team in the AFC that is yet to be beaten and sitting higher than New England and the New York Jets in the East.
Before I get on with the Picks from this Week, I am going to go over a few points from Week 3, before putting up my top 10 in the Power Rankings, and then my personal top 5 and bottom 5 teams in the NFL.
WEEK 3 Thoughts
1) Michael Vick's complaints about referee treatment: Michael Vick griped that he is not given enough protection from the NFL referees as he doesn't get as many flags for late hits as some other QBs do.
His comments seem to have separated people into two camps- there are some that think Vick is moaning for no reason and others that think he has a point.
I tend to sit with the latter camp- Vick is not protected as much as others as he is a mobile QB, but Ben Roethlisberger is another who could make the complaint but chooses not to. However, Vick was hit late on at least 2 occasions against the Giants last week that should have drawn flags, and you can understand why he was so frustrated after the game, especially as at least one of those hits was a player leading with his helmet.
Steve Young put it best when saying on MNF that the 'more mobile a QB, the less likely he is to get a flag for a late hit', but Vick is at least trying to stay in the pocket and must be offered more protection than he is getting at the moment.
2) 'Suck for Luck' hots up: Andrew Luck is clearly going to be the Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft next April, which means there is a genuine reason to lose games for some teams.
The leading contenders so far are Kansas City, Miami, Indianapolis and Minnesota (I ruled out St Louis who already have their franchise QB settled in Sam Bradford)- all 4 of those teams suffered close losses in Week 3 and there could be some GM's looking ahead to getting a little more 'Luck' in the future.
In my mind, the latter two teams are unlikely to make the play as I think they either win enough games to move away from this discussion (Minnesota) or they have enough faith in the QB they have (Peyton Manning at Indianapolis barring any long term issue with the neck) which leaves Kansas City and the Dolphins.
Mark down November 6th in your diaries as that could be the day this whole issue is decided- that is the day the Chiefs visit Miami.
3) Which team is more likely to sustain early season form- Buffalo or Detroit? Both teams have opened up as 3-0, but it is Buffalo who are the more surprising.
I liked the Lions a lot before the season started so I would pick them, but that is assuming Matt Stafford can remain healthy.
Detroit's Defense looks tough and will only get better when Nick Fairley is good to join Ndamukong Suh in wreaking havoc in the backfield, but the Offense is reliant on Stafford as the drop off to Drew Stanton and Shaun Hill is too much for them to overcome.
Buffalo have been brilliant so far during the first 3 weeks of the season, and Chan Gailey needs to be given a ton of credit for keeping faith with Ryan Fitzpatrick. However, they are in a tough Division and that Defense is giving up far too many points, while it is hard to see them continuously coming back from large half time deficits as they have done in their last 2 games.
4) Phantom call in the Chicago-Green Bay game ruins best Special Teams play I have seen in a long time: I have seen some strange decisions in the NFL over the years, but there was nothing stranger than the 'holding' call given near the end of the Chicago-Green Bay contest.
The Oscar this year must go to Devin Hestor who fakes trying to catch the ball, while Johnny Knox scampers away virtually untouched on the other side of the field.
I got away with a lot of luck that the holding penalty came in (had picked Packers - 3.5 Points), but it was a bogus call and the officials have to be questioned- maybe the umpire also had a - 3.5 point ticket stamped.
5) Green Bay remain the team to beat in the NFL: The SuperBowl Champs are looking unstoppable at this moment, with Aaron Rodgers leading an Offense that can put up a bunch of points on any team they play.
They have found a running game (big criticisms of that last season) and Jermichael Finley really does provide an added bow to the Offense. With a deep receiving corps too and one of the best QB's in the NFL, it was only the Defensive unit that was worrying me.
The first 2 weeks of the season saw the Defense struggle, however they looked better on Sunday and I do think it will be hard for any team to keep up with the Pack at this moment in time.
Power Rankings Top 10
1) Green Bay Packers: Obvious choice, 3-0 to start this season meaning they have now won 9 in a row since last season and looking unbeatable.
2) Buffalo Bills: 3-0 start and beating New England from 0-21 down is impressive
3) Detroit Lions: That Defense is tough, but the Offense looks really good with Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson.
4) Baltimore Ravens: If Joe Flacco and the Offense can keep their high flying start to the season going, the Defense can make enough big plays to keep them winning.
5) New England Patriots: Need the Defense to step up as they face bigger challenges than Chad Henne and Ryan Fitzpatrick this season.
6) New Orleans Saints: Powerful Offense and not far from being 3-0 themselves this season.
7) New York Giants: The last 6 Quarters played have been impressive
8) Pittsburgh Steelers: Need to stop shooting themselves in the foot, particularly the Offense.
9) Oakland Raiders: Should really have started the season 3-0
10) Dallas Cowboys: Overcome injuries on the OL and in the receiving corps to beat Washington on Monday Night and are a fumble in the opponents Red Zone away from being 3-0.
My Top 5 and Bottom 5
1) Green Bay 32) Kansas City
2) New England 31) Indianapolis
3) New Orleans 30) Miami
4) Baltimore 29) Cincinnati
5) Pittsburgh 28) Seattle
WEEK 4 Picks and Preview
My Picks for Week 4 will be appearing below. They will come out in staggered sessions due to work commitments, but I will update on Twitter (@DavAulak) whenever I have put some up.
I will put up picks with the previews available in the links so keep checking out the updates over the next few days.
Week 4 Picks:
New Orleans Saints Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11879-Jacksonville-Jaguars-v-New-Orleans-Saints.htm)- LOCKED IN EARLY FOR THE 6.5 POINT SPREAD
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11880-Houston-Texans-v-Pittsburgh-Steelers.htm) LOCKED IN EARLY FOR THE 4 POINT SPREAD
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11906-Dallas-Cowboys-v-Detroit-Lions.htm) LOCKED IN FRIDAY
Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11908-Seattle-Seahawks-v-Atlanta-Falcons.htm) LOCKED IN FRIDAY
Minnesota Vikings @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11910-Kansas-City-Chiefs-v-Minnesota-Vikings.htm) LOCKED IN FRIDAY
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11914-Philadelphia-Eagles-v-San-Francisco-49ers.htm) LOCKED IN THE 8.5 POINT SPREAD ON FRIDAY
New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11916-Arizona-Cardinals-v-New-York-Giants.htm)
Denver Broncos @ Green Bay Packers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11917-Green-Bay-Packers-v-Denver-Broncos.htm)
Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11918-San-Diego-Chargers-v-Miami-Dolphins.htm)
Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11919-Tampa-Bay-Buccaneers-v-Indianapolis-Colts.htm) LOCKED IN SATURDAY FOR THE 10 POINT SPREAD
Washington Redskins @ St Louis Rams (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11932-St-Louis-Rams-v-Washington-Redskins.htm)
MY PICKS: New Orleans Saints - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (4 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 4 Points @ 1.92 BetFred (2 Units)
Detroit Lions + 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (3 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 BetFred (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New York Giants - 1 Point @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 12 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins + 7 Points @ 1.92 BetFred (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 10 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
St Louis Rams + 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (3 Units)
Before I get on with the Picks from this Week, I am going to go over a few points from Week 3, before putting up my top 10 in the Power Rankings, and then my personal top 5 and bottom 5 teams in the NFL.
WEEK 3 Thoughts
1) Michael Vick's complaints about referee treatment: Michael Vick griped that he is not given enough protection from the NFL referees as he doesn't get as many flags for late hits as some other QBs do.
His comments seem to have separated people into two camps- there are some that think Vick is moaning for no reason and others that think he has a point.
I tend to sit with the latter camp- Vick is not protected as much as others as he is a mobile QB, but Ben Roethlisberger is another who could make the complaint but chooses not to. However, Vick was hit late on at least 2 occasions against the Giants last week that should have drawn flags, and you can understand why he was so frustrated after the game, especially as at least one of those hits was a player leading with his helmet.
Steve Young put it best when saying on MNF that the 'more mobile a QB, the less likely he is to get a flag for a late hit', but Vick is at least trying to stay in the pocket and must be offered more protection than he is getting at the moment.
2) 'Suck for Luck' hots up: Andrew Luck is clearly going to be the Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft next April, which means there is a genuine reason to lose games for some teams.
The leading contenders so far are Kansas City, Miami, Indianapolis and Minnesota (I ruled out St Louis who already have their franchise QB settled in Sam Bradford)- all 4 of those teams suffered close losses in Week 3 and there could be some GM's looking ahead to getting a little more 'Luck' in the future.
In my mind, the latter two teams are unlikely to make the play as I think they either win enough games to move away from this discussion (Minnesota) or they have enough faith in the QB they have (Peyton Manning at Indianapolis barring any long term issue with the neck) which leaves Kansas City and the Dolphins.
Mark down November 6th in your diaries as that could be the day this whole issue is decided- that is the day the Chiefs visit Miami.
3) Which team is more likely to sustain early season form- Buffalo or Detroit? Both teams have opened up as 3-0, but it is Buffalo who are the more surprising.
I liked the Lions a lot before the season started so I would pick them, but that is assuming Matt Stafford can remain healthy.
Detroit's Defense looks tough and will only get better when Nick Fairley is good to join Ndamukong Suh in wreaking havoc in the backfield, but the Offense is reliant on Stafford as the drop off to Drew Stanton and Shaun Hill is too much for them to overcome.
Buffalo have been brilliant so far during the first 3 weeks of the season, and Chan Gailey needs to be given a ton of credit for keeping faith with Ryan Fitzpatrick. However, they are in a tough Division and that Defense is giving up far too many points, while it is hard to see them continuously coming back from large half time deficits as they have done in their last 2 games.
4) Phantom call in the Chicago-Green Bay game ruins best Special Teams play I have seen in a long time: I have seen some strange decisions in the NFL over the years, but there was nothing stranger than the 'holding' call given near the end of the Chicago-Green Bay contest.
The Oscar this year must go to Devin Hestor who fakes trying to catch the ball, while Johnny Knox scampers away virtually untouched on the other side of the field.
I got away with a lot of luck that the holding penalty came in (had picked Packers - 3.5 Points), but it was a bogus call and the officials have to be questioned- maybe the umpire also had a - 3.5 point ticket stamped.
5) Green Bay remain the team to beat in the NFL: The SuperBowl Champs are looking unstoppable at this moment, with Aaron Rodgers leading an Offense that can put up a bunch of points on any team they play.
They have found a running game (big criticisms of that last season) and Jermichael Finley really does provide an added bow to the Offense. With a deep receiving corps too and one of the best QB's in the NFL, it was only the Defensive unit that was worrying me.
The first 2 weeks of the season saw the Defense struggle, however they looked better on Sunday and I do think it will be hard for any team to keep up with the Pack at this moment in time.
Power Rankings Top 10
1) Green Bay Packers: Obvious choice, 3-0 to start this season meaning they have now won 9 in a row since last season and looking unbeatable.
2) Buffalo Bills: 3-0 start and beating New England from 0-21 down is impressive
3) Detroit Lions: That Defense is tough, but the Offense looks really good with Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson.
4) Baltimore Ravens: If Joe Flacco and the Offense can keep their high flying start to the season going, the Defense can make enough big plays to keep them winning.
5) New England Patriots: Need the Defense to step up as they face bigger challenges than Chad Henne and Ryan Fitzpatrick this season.
6) New Orleans Saints: Powerful Offense and not far from being 3-0 themselves this season.
7) New York Giants: The last 6 Quarters played have been impressive
8) Pittsburgh Steelers: Need to stop shooting themselves in the foot, particularly the Offense.
9) Oakland Raiders: Should really have started the season 3-0
10) Dallas Cowboys: Overcome injuries on the OL and in the receiving corps to beat Washington on Monday Night and are a fumble in the opponents Red Zone away from being 3-0.
My Top 5 and Bottom 5
1) Green Bay 32) Kansas City
2) New England 31) Indianapolis
3) New Orleans 30) Miami
4) Baltimore 29) Cincinnati
5) Pittsburgh 28) Seattle
WEEK 4 Picks and Preview
My Picks for Week 4 will be appearing below. They will come out in staggered sessions due to work commitments, but I will update on Twitter (@DavAulak) whenever I have put some up.
I will put up picks with the previews available in the links so keep checking out the updates over the next few days.
Week 4 Picks:
New Orleans Saints Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11879-Jacksonville-Jaguars-v-New-Orleans-Saints.htm)- LOCKED IN EARLY FOR THE 6.5 POINT SPREAD
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11880-Houston-Texans-v-Pittsburgh-Steelers.htm) LOCKED IN EARLY FOR THE 4 POINT SPREAD
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11906-Dallas-Cowboys-v-Detroit-Lions.htm) LOCKED IN FRIDAY
Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11908-Seattle-Seahawks-v-Atlanta-Falcons.htm) LOCKED IN FRIDAY
Minnesota Vikings @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11910-Kansas-City-Chiefs-v-Minnesota-Vikings.htm) LOCKED IN FRIDAY
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11914-Philadelphia-Eagles-v-San-Francisco-49ers.htm) LOCKED IN THE 8.5 POINT SPREAD ON FRIDAY
New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11916-Arizona-Cardinals-v-New-York-Giants.htm)
Denver Broncos @ Green Bay Packers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11917-Green-Bay-Packers-v-Denver-Broncos.htm)
Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11918-San-Diego-Chargers-v-Miami-Dolphins.htm)
Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11919-Tampa-Bay-Buccaneers-v-Indianapolis-Colts.htm) LOCKED IN SATURDAY FOR THE 10 POINT SPREAD
Washington Redskins @ St Louis Rams (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11932-St-Louis-Rams-v-Washington-Redskins.htm)
MY PICKS: New Orleans Saints - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (4 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 4 Points @ 1.92 BetFred (2 Units)
Detroit Lions + 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (3 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 BetFred (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New York Giants - 1 Point @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 12 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins + 7 Points @ 1.92 BetFred (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 10 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
St Louis Rams + 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (3 Units)
Tuesday, 27 September 2011
What to make of Carlos Tevez?
This has to be the strangest night in a long time when a player as good as Carlos Tevez decides that he will not come onto the field of play for whatever reason.
I don't think Tevez will be playing for Manchester City ever again, but this was a situation that needed to be resolved in the Summer when it was clear that the Argentine did not want to stay at the club. City are not in desperate need of money, but they effectively ended chances of Tevez leaving the club when demanding £50 million for the player from other European clubs.
Now I don't think City should have been shortchanged because they are bankrolled by a billionaire, but they clearly overvalued a player that did not want to play for the club- if Fabregas goes for £35 million, there is no way City could have expected £15 million more for a player that everyone knew wanted to leave the club.
So instead of selling him, they keep Tevez as effectively the 4th choice striker which has obviously built frustration and ended in the manner it has tonight. Imagine if Tottenham had treated Luka Modric this way after refusing to sell him in the Summer to Chelsea.
There is also another issue being brought about from this scenario and that is whether Roberto Mancini has the respect of the players that a more experienced manager would have- there were rumours all was not well when he was at Inter Milan with the team being brought together by Jose Mourinho for their big success in Europe.
We have also heard of problems with Mario Balotelli, Edin Dzeko and now Tevez which suggests Jerome Boateng was spot on when he said there was no real team bond at the club.
I think we are going to see an interesting few days from Eastlands and how they will recover with the Manchester Derby approaching this month.
Personally, I think Tevez will end up being loaned to a South American club, most likely sooner than later, but this is an issue built by City and at the end of the day, you reap what you sow.
I don't think Tevez will be playing for Manchester City ever again, but this was a situation that needed to be resolved in the Summer when it was clear that the Argentine did not want to stay at the club. City are not in desperate need of money, but they effectively ended chances of Tevez leaving the club when demanding £50 million for the player from other European clubs.
Now I don't think City should have been shortchanged because they are bankrolled by a billionaire, but they clearly overvalued a player that did not want to play for the club- if Fabregas goes for £35 million, there is no way City could have expected £15 million more for a player that everyone knew wanted to leave the club.
So instead of selling him, they keep Tevez as effectively the 4th choice striker which has obviously built frustration and ended in the manner it has tonight. Imagine if Tottenham had treated Luka Modric this way after refusing to sell him in the Summer to Chelsea.
There is also another issue being brought about from this scenario and that is whether Roberto Mancini has the respect of the players that a more experienced manager would have- there were rumours all was not well when he was at Inter Milan with the team being brought together by Jose Mourinho for their big success in Europe.
We have also heard of problems with Mario Balotelli, Edin Dzeko and now Tevez which suggests Jerome Boateng was spot on when he said there was no real team bond at the club.
I think we are going to see an interesting few days from Eastlands and how they will recover with the Manchester Derby approaching this month.
Personally, I think Tevez will end up being loaned to a South American club, most likely sooner than later, but this is an issue built by City and at the end of the day, you reap what you sow.
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