FA Cup Final Pick 2017- Arsenal vs Chelsea (May 27th)

The FA Cup Final is played on Saturday 27th May as the English domestic season comes to a close this weekend culminating with the Championship Play Off Final on Monday 29th May.

The season has certainly felt a really good one after coming back from Stockholm and Manchester United having a place in the Champions League secured for the 2017/18 campaign.

I'll have some pictures from my time in Stockholm and a short piece about the 2016/17 Manchester United season in the days following the World Cup Qualifiers in June.

Arsenal

I have been saying for a few weeks that I am not expecting an announcement from Arsene Wenger regarding his future until the season is over. That would mean three months of avoiding the demonstrations we have seen over the last few weeks of the season and I am pretty convinced that he will stay on as manager despite Arsenal missing out on a top four finish for the first time in twenty years.

That means Arsenal will be playing in the Europa League next season and failing to win the FA Cup would underline what a poor season it has been for the club. The Gunners have been hit and miss away from home where they have a 9-3-7 record in the Premier League, although they did have some solid wins on the road in the FA Cup. An extra time win over Manchester City helped Arsenal reach the FA Cup Final, while they also won at Preston North End, Southampton, Sutton United before a home win over Lincoln City.

Arsenal have lost 1 of their last 9 games in all competitions and have bounced back from the 2-0 loss at Tottenham Hotspur by winning 5 in a row in the Premier League, although they still came up short for a top four finish. The side have won 3 of their last 5 games away from the Emirates Stadium and only the loss at White Hart Lane provides a black mark in that run.

Laurent Koscielny is suspended and Gabriel hurt himself and is set to miss out on the Cup Final.


Arsenal Expected Starting Line Up: Cech, Holding, Mustafi, Mertesacker, Bellerin, Monreal, Xhaka, Ramsey, Ozil, Sanchez, Giroud.

Chelsea

Winning the Premier League title is a huge achievement for Antonio Conte in his first season as manager of Chelsea, but the Italian strikes me as someone who won't be patting himself on the back. Instead I think Conte would have turned his focus to the FA Cup Final and securing a debut season Double with Chelsea before preparation begins for the 2017/18 season.

The Blues finished the season with a points total which is the second highest in the Premier League era and they also had the best away record in the Division as they ended the season with a 13-3-3 record. An impressive 4-2 win over Tottenham Hotspur helped Chelsea move into the FA Cup Final while they have also seen off Peterborough United, Brentford, Wolves and Manchester United in the competition this season.

Chelsea ended the season with 6 straight wins in all competitions following the 2-0 loss at Manchester United and they scored plenty of goals in that run. In 5 of the 6 wins, Chelsea scored at least three times with the exception being a 0-1 win at West Brom. The side have won 7 of their last 8 games away from Stamford Bridge.

There don't look to be any injury concerns for Chelsea ahead of the FA Cup Final.


Chelsea Expected Starting Line Up: Courtois, Azpilicueta, Luiz, Cahill, Moses, Alonso, Kante, Matic, Pedro, Hazard, Costa.

Head to Head

Both Arsenal and Chelsea recorded a heavy win over the other in the Premier League- Arsenal won 3-0 at the Emirates Stadium and Chelsea won 3-1 at Stamford Bridge.

Arsenal have won just 2 of 14 games against Chelsea with The Blues winning 9 of those games.


However one of the Arsenal wins came in a 1-0 victory in the Community Shield at the start of the 2015/16 season which was played at Wembley Stadium.

Prediction and Pick

The FA Cup Final is unlikely to be the last time we see Arsene Wenger managing Arsenal, although a defeat is going to ramp up the pressure to unprecedented levels on the manager. Finishing outside of the top four of the Premier League and thus missing out on the Champions League is a huge blow for Arsenal, while the defensive crisis is coming at just the wrong time.

Questions about the future commitments of the manager, Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil will be both in the lead up and the immediate aftermath of this FA Cup Final and it does make it tough preparation for the Arsenal players.

They did end the season in strong form, but they won't find a demotivated opponent in this one as they did in some of their fixtures following the 2-0 loss in the North London derby. That will make the upheaval tough to overcome as they take on the Premier League Champions Chelsea who want to add another piece of silverware to what has already been a successful season for the club.

Antonio Conte doesn't have any real issues when it comes to team selection and the Chelsea players have been producing some top performances down the stretch. Goals have been flowing and a team playing with the confidence they are is tough to oppose in the FA Cup Final.

Chelsea blew Arsenal away when they played at Stamford Bridge back in February and I think they are going to be too strong in the FA Cup Final too. There is quality in the Arsenal ranks through Sanchez and Ozil that can cause problems for Chelsea, but the defensive problems for Wenger's team will likely be exposed by a Chelsea team who have scored 24 goals in their last 7 since the 2-0 defeat at Manchester United.


It would be a real surprise to me if Chelsea are not the winners of this Cup Final and I will back them to do that inside ninety minutes.

MY PICKS: Chelsea to Win @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekend Review (August 17-19)

The first weekend of the Premier League is always too soon to make snap judgements for what is going to happen for the next nine months- I mean the top three contenders for the Premier League title all won, the three promoted sides from last season all lost.

That doesn't mean anything in the long run, but there were still a few things that caught my eye from a long weekend of football and these are below.


Sergio Aguero staying fit could bridge the gap to Manchester United: As a Manchester United fan, I would be the first to tell you that Robin Van Persie's decision to move to Old Trafford rather than Manchester City was a major reason for the title coming back to Manchester United last season.

Van Persie's goals were critical and United managed to score 20 goals more than City over the course of the Premier League season and that definitely made the difference between the teams and is a real reason for such a gap at the end of the season between the two top sides.

Mario Balotelli and Carlos Tevez have both left Manchester City over the last year, while they have signed Stevan Jovetic and Alvaro Negredo have been brought in to help the team get back to scoring ways, but it may be most critical for them to keep Sergio Aguero fit.

Aguero started 22 games last season and was a substitute for a further 8 games, while scoring 12 goals for City, but he had been suffering with a knock during the course of the year and he has the goalscoring knack that could make a big difference in the title race this time around.

I also think City will be boosted by the more attacking mentality that Manuel Pellegrini will employ compared with Roberto Mancini- with the talent they have in forward positions, I think they will score a fair few more than the 66 goals they managed last season and may just make the difference in bridging the 11 point gap between themselves and United.


Arsenal fans booing ridiculous: It is very much a feature of the new world that instance success is all that fans want to see and social networking makes it easier for everyone to voice their opinions.

While reading Twitter is down to each individual, Arsenal fans have a tendency to bring their negative vibes to the Emirates Stadium. It isn't the first time the team have been booed off at home, but that isn't the only reason I find it quite ridiculous.

They boo their OWN players when they may be under-performing... Did anyone else find it quite ironic the cheers and claps Emmanuel Eboue got during a pre-season friendly against Galatasaray, yet this was the same player they would ridicule and boo while he played FOR Arsenal.

Theo Walcott has received the same 'adulation' during his poor runs of form, and it just feels ridiculous that one game into a season they are already on the players backs. Granted there are frustrations in what has been a quiet summer on the transfer front, and the result against Villa was a poor one, but it seems to be a far quicker negative reaction in this stadium than any other.

I don't know whether that is simply down to the fact that the new stadium has only been built in the last few years and the increased attendance from the Highbury days has allowed more 'Soccer Am' watching fans turn up, but the booing comes far too quickly at that stadium.


Promoted sides all lose but some positive signs: I said above that it is too quick to make snap judgements after one game of the season, but I do think all three promoted sides will take some positives from their opening Premier League game.

Cardiff City struggled at West Ham United, but Upton Park is one of the tougher places to play in the Premier League and I think the team will be looking to their home form to provide the real foundation for survival. They will certainly feel better now that the tension of the first game is out of the way, although the next game against Manchester City may give them another rude awakening of the challenges that lie ahead.

While Cardiff have fewer positives, both Crystal Palace and Hull City will feel they showed enough to think they can snare some points this season. Hull were outclassed for the first half at Chelsea, but the second half performance suggests they have made some astute signings, particularly Tom Huddlestone and Jake Livermore from Tottenham Hotspur.

Steve Bruce has experience and I think Hull City will surprise some if they take their second half performance on. Crystal Palace also played well in their game against Spurs, although I do wonder if they have enough goals in the side to survive in the top flight.

Over the last twenty years, all three promoted sides being immediately relegated is almost unheard of and even two of the sides going down would be a surprise. With that in mind, and with the performances on the opening weekend, all three promoted clubs will still have a real belief in what they are trying to achieve this season.


Wigan and the two relegated clubs won't have an easy ride in the Championship: When all three relegated clubs from the Premier League made winning starts in their opening game in the Championship, the general feeling was that all three would have a strong shout for promotion.

The one that most were excited about were Wigan after they won 0-4 at Barnsley, but one point from their next two games shows how tough the Championship is- I wasn't convinced by the appointment of Owen Coyle who had to be sacked by Bolton Wanderers last season as he struggled to make the adjustment to the Championship.

All 3 of the relegated sides are no longer the 'underdog', but a team with a target on their back as others will raise their game against opponents that were Premier League clubs up until May. Wigan have the additional pressure of playing in Europe and being the FA Cup holders which makes them a bigger scalp, although Queens Park Rangers financial clout puts a huge target on them too.

Being immediately promoted following relegation is not an easy task in a competitive Division like this one and all three will have a long, tough season ahead with a lots of ups and downs to reach their goal.


Spurs without Bale could still be a top four club: I have been impressed with the way Tottenham Hotspur have invested in the squad with the imminent departure of Gareth Bale to Real Madrid- they are getting a lot of money for their Welsh winger, but there does seem to be more of a feel of a team being put together and a good one at that.

The latest news that Willian may not be moving to White Hart Lane is a blow to what had looked a very strong summer of business, but I like the signings they have made and there is every chance they could be a top four club even in the absence of his talisman.

The big question may be who Arsenal sign to strengthen their squad to decide which of the North London teams finish in the final coveted Champions League place, but at the moment, players like Roberto Soldado and Paulinho can make a difference for Spurs.

Spurs do look a little short in defensive areas, so staying healthy will be key to their chances of negotiating what is a tough nine months of football, but there are some really positive signs. Andre Villas-Boas has to find the right blend at White Hart Lane where Spurs dropped too many points against teams they would be expecting to beat as they certainly look capable of picking up plenty on their travels and I like the business being done in this part of North London.

Final Thoughts on Weekend Football (September 14-17)

This is a little later than I usually plan it, but between work and actually looking at potential picks, it has been tough to do any sooner.

It was great to have the Premier League and domestic football back in action this week as I am not really a fan of the international breaks and feel there are too many qualifiers, especially with some of the weaker nations being so irrelevant that I think changes should be made to how qualification goes about.

Honestly, I feel the lower Ranked nations should have to go through some sort of 'pre-qualification' before being pitted against the likes of Germany and Spain, even if Georgia showed real heart in a close loss to the Spanish team in the last set of games.

My thoughts on Manchester United in the latest United Corner can be found here

Oh well, here are my Final Thoughts on last weekend:


Arsenal are genuine title contenders?: If you picked up a newspaper (or read an online publication as is the norm these days), you would have noticed a lot of people tipping Arsenal as title contenders following their wins over Liverpool and Southampton in the League.

I know you are only as good as your last performance in this new social networking World, but people have completely forgotten their two draws with Sunderland and Stoke City and are perhaps jumping the gun a little bit.

Arsenal are always likely to put in big performances from time to time with the possession football they play- if everything clicks on the day, they will blitz teams as they did against Southampton, while the win at Liverpool was impressive against perhaps an 'over-rated' side.

I like Santi Cazorla as he looks a real player while Lukas Podolski has made a good start to the season, but before I am ready to call them real contenders, I want to see how they do against the bigger and better Premier League clubs.

It seems the fixture compute has been kind to those thoughts as Arsenal play Manchester City at the Etihad and then host Chelsea in back to back weeks- win those games and I'll say they are title contenders.


Have Southampton come up a season too soon?: Following on from the Arsenal thoughts, it is only fair to think about Southampton and wonder if they have come up too fast following their back to back promotions.

Norwich City were successful in keeping their place in the Premier League when they managed that feat last season, but I think the playing styles of the teams are distinctly different- Southampton like to get the ball down and play while Norwich were a little more direct in their approach and I think the latter style can be a little tougher to get used to for Premier League teams rather than a style where teams look to play you off the park.

However, it would be rash to think Southampton are going doomed on four games, those coming against Manchester City, Wigan Athletic, Manchester United and Arsenal.

The most disappointing result would have been the Wigan loss at home, but they had leads against both Manchester clubs and everything just seemed to go wrong in their game against Arsenal. Southampton play Aston Villa next at St Mary's and it is conceivable they can win that and bring some real positive vibes back into the club.

It will be wise to review Southampton's situation in a months time after they play the likes of Villa, Everton, Fulham and West Ham in the League, although the rumours are that the owners have already got the knives ready to give Nigel Adkins the chop.


Manchester City's home form is going to be crucial again: Manchester City won 18 of their 19 home games last season, drawing the other, and that ultimately secured them the Premier League title and this season has the makings of another where they need to secure a huge amount of points at home to retain their title.

Of course, the Champions will normally have a very strong record at home, but City's away day struggles are very much under the radar at the moment. The dropped points at Stoke City over the weekend means they have won just 12 of their last 30 away games in the Premier League and that will put additional pressure on them winning their home games to make up for it.

This has largely been ignored as they have won some big games at Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, Newcastle United but it is something to consider, especially for those that love backing the short priced 'big name' favourite away from home on your coupons.


Time to bring in goal-line technology: We have to get a rush on goal-line technology as Everton became the latest club to have a clear goal not given in their match against Newcastle United.

The tests are being done and the Premier League are insistent that they will get the technology out sooner rather than later, but there is too much money involved these days on those decisions and it needs to be there.

To be honest, the official that missed the ball going over the line also ruled out another goal when incorrectly ruling Maruoane Fellaini offside, so maybe he has some explaining to do this week.


Blackburn Rovers have a great chance to bounce back to the Premier League immediately: The Championship is a tough Division to get out of as so many teams can beat others on their day, but Blackburn Rovers look to have the best squad in the League and they look like a team that can bounce back to the Premier League at the first attempt.

The likes of Jordan Rhodes and Nuno Gomes look capable of getting the goals to fire them to promotion and the pressure is decreasing on Steve Kean with every passing game.

They have moved to the top of the Championship with a 3-5 win at Bristol City and they do look capable of staying there or thereabouts for much of the season.

A few thoughts from the last week in Football (February 11-19)

It has been two weeks since the last time I put down a few of my thoughts from the week in football so I have a little bit more to look through.

Some of the issues may seem like they happened a lifetime ago now as football moves on so fast, so I won't cover those in great depth.

Hopefully I will be able to get back to doing these on a weekly basis, but that is something that will be dictated by work pressures unfortunately and finding the time between writing previews and thoughts.


1) Where do Arsenal go from here?: For the second season in succession, Arsenal have found their season in tatters before we get to 'squeaky bum time' and the question is relevant as to where they will go from here. The Gunners are effectively out of the Champions League following a crushing defeat in the San Siro last week and have now fallen out of the FA Cup at the 5th Round as they have reached 7 years since they have last won a trophy.

The pressure is on the management and staff to make sure that they get into the Champions League, but the best they can hope for on that front is reaching the Qualifying Round as they had to pass this year.

Even that is no guarantee with a host of clubs queued up behind them and they have to find their form quickly.

The game against Tottenham Hotspur was usually a 'gimme' for Arsenal fans over the years, but this Sunday the tables will be turned as Spurs come to the Emirates intent on keeping their title ambitions alive while denting their North London rivals' own abitions.


2) Fourth place is up for grabs: The Premier League was not in action this weekend, but Newcastle United and Liverpool must feel they have a great chance of securing the coveted Fourth Place in the Premier League as Arsenal and Chelsea continue to show massive vulnerabilities in their own play.

Both London clubs struggled mightily in their respective FA Cup ties, and both have looked vulnerable in the League all season so surely the other two teams in contention for this place will be full of confidence.

Newcastle United would be the surprise package if they could manage it, while Liverpool may just finish with one of their most successful seasons in recent times if they can get back into the Champions League as well as adding a couple of bits of silverware too. They host Arsenal and Chelsea during the remainder of this season and will feel comfortable having already played Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur twice this season.


3) Aston Villa cannot afford to lose at the DW Stadium this weekend: I said, with my tongue in cheek, that Aston Villa fans may have to deal with a relegation scrap if they don't pick up form a couple of weeks ago in my preview for their game with Manchester City, and that could become a real concern if they were to lose at Wigan this weekend.

Villa are currently on 28 points, leaving them 7 clear of those in the relegation zone, but a defeat could suddenly leave them in an extremely uncomfortable position.

Speaking off the top of my head, I believe they are yet to play Manchester United (Away), Liverpool (Away), Arsenal (Away) and Chelsea (Home) in the League this season, so those 7 points could quickly evaparote with a defeat on Saturday.

Alex McLeish has been under pressure even since accepting the job as he came across town from Birmingham City and that could be increased ten-fold with a defeat at the weekend.


4) The Premier League being the best League in the World: Now I personally hate it when the Premier League is described this way, usually by Sky in hyping a game or by fans that haven't visited a stadium more than twice in their lifetime, as I just don't believe it is true.

There was a period recently when the English sides would do very well in Europe, but they never had a sustained period of dominance in actually WINNING the Champions League, with only Liverpool in 2005 and Manchester United in 2008 winning the top prize since the famous Treble-winning United side of 1999. To prove the Premier League was the 'best League', surely English sides should have won more than a couple of titles in the last 12 seasons, especially considering Real Madrid and Barcelona accounted for 4 of those between themselves in that time and the two Milan clubs have shared 3 titles.

On Wednesday last week, we saw one of the two remaining English representatives hammered at the San Siro, while Manchester United and Manchester City were preparing for their first Europa League games.

The Premier League may be the most 'competitive' League, but the League is of a poor standard as far as I am concerned.

I say this as a United fan myself- the fact we are sitting 2 points off the lead with the midfield we have operated this season is a sad indictment of the quality in the Enlish Premier League rather than anything else.


5) And they said Patrice Evra was the liar?: Over the last 3 months since the incident between LS and Patrice Evra, we have heard a bunch of rhetoric coming out of Anfield from people like Kenneth Dalglish straight through to the players and the fans, with most of that people an attempt to discredit Patrice Evra and the allegations he had made.

There have been a number of PR gaffes throughout that time (those T-Shirts being the most embarrassing without a doubt), but it all seemed to come to a head at Old Trafford 10 days ago.

The most influential way Liverpool had felt it was right to defend their own player was to accuse Evra of being a liar, Dalglish in particular saying soon after the allegations had been made that 'he has done this before, hasn't he?'

I even remember people telling me it was Evra's word against LS's word and that Evra was a known liar so how could he be believed...

Since last Saturday, I have heard nothing but radio silence...

You see LS was proven to be an absolute liar when he informed the club and his manager that he intended to shake Evra's hand, only to decide against it at the last minute... He didn't tell anyone, everyone believed LS when he said he would shake hands, so I guess the FA believed the right person after all.

The embarrassment was not complete though for Liverpool as Kenneth decided to blow up live on TV moments after the game (not quite Kevin Keegan levels, but very enjoyable all the same) and then we once again got all the Liverpool fans up in arms that EVRA had refused the handshake and it was all a conspiracy against the club- some even went so far as to say that Rio Ferdinand should have some consequences for his refusal to shake LS's hands (they were being serious too).

The climbdown on Sunday, courtesy of the American owners finally deciding to make a stand, saw a number of apologies come out of the club- far too little and far too late considering there was no apology over the whole incident that began this sorry affair.

Right now, I don't think it is too far fetched to believe that LS will be shipped off in the Summer at the request of the owners, especially since the refusal to shake Evra's hands had reached the New York Times on Sunday morning.

Things we Learned from the Weekend Football (October 1-2)

It was a very interesting weekend for me as Saturday looked to have killed me and left me in a big hole this month, mainly thanks to some sorry officiating and bad luck with injuries. However, the outlook looks much brighter as much of the damage was saved thanks to a strong Sunday when all 3 picks came in, including the biggest pick I made this week.

Below is a few of my thoughts from the weekend as we get ready for a 2 week break from the Premier League:

1) Jack Rodwell's sending off was rightly rescinded, now what happens to Martin Atkinson?: The decision made by Martin Atkinson essentially helped my 'overs' pick fall down, but it was the shocking nature and terrible decision making that was in question.


Everton learned earlier that Jack Rodwell will not be suspended as the FA, rightly, decided to reverse the decision.


All of this means something has to be done about Martin Atkinson, the most card happy referee in the Premier League. He has to be demoted, in my opinion, as he should not be put forward to referee top flight games when he cannot make the simple decisions- if the tackle was made 30 yards from him, I would be more forgiving, but he cocked up from all of 2 feet and that is unacceptable.


Jack Rodwell was going to miss 3 games, I think that suspension should be given to Martin Atkinson and then he should be forced to referee Championship games until he can prove he is good enough not to put his dirty rubber stamp on a Premier League game again.


2) Manchester United have real defensive concerns: The Basel game made it clear that United were having a few problems at the back, but Norwich became the latest team to expose these weaknesses. I am less entitled to blame the defence as I feel they are given little to no protection from the midfield, allowing teams to break with 4-5 players breaking on the back 4.


Nemanja Vidic has been the biggest loss as his experience and leadership quality really would help the younger members of the back 5, and United will be desperate to the get the Captain back in the team ahead of the next 3 Premier League games at Liverpool, at home against Manchester City and at Everton.


3) I have said it before, but Arsenal are going nowhere with that defence: I said after Arsenal made their transfers in August that I didn't believe Arsene Wenger had improved his squad that much and they were panic buys from a manager under pressure.


Arsenal are conceding far too many goals to earn a top 4 place this season, with the 2 goals conceded at Tottenham meaning they have conceded 14 goals in 3 away games since drawing at Newcastle, and the Gunners are well off the pace compared with Liverpool, Spurs and the top 3 from last season.


Bacary Sagna is the latest injury at the back when he unfortunately broke his leg on Sunday, Thomas Vermaelan is a long term absentee, and I see problems for Wenger.


They are coming up to an extremely soft section of the schedule in the next few weeks, facing Sunderland, Stoke, West Brom, Fulham and trips to Norwich and Wigan, with only a trip to Chelsea being a big test.


I would expect Arsenal to start moving up the table, but defensively they need to improve.


4) Wigan and Bolton are both in a bit of bother: Both of these sides look like they are going to be in for a real scrap for their Premier League lives judging from their early season form.


Bolton had ended the season with a really bad run of form and they have lost 11 of 12 games in the Premier League, while Wigan continue to look like a side struggling to score goals.


Wigan had much more of the possession against Villa on Saturday, yet lost without causing too many problems, and it looks like a long season for both of these sides.

Things we Learned from the Weekend Football (September 17-18)

A little later than usual, but these are a few things I have taken away from the results over the weekend in England.

1) Aston Villa struggling for goals: It is not always a good decision to make rash judgements on a team, but Alex McLeish is making Villa into another version of his Birmingham side that could defend well, but not score enough goals.


It is not all the new manager's fault considering Villa have only scored more than 1 goal in 2 of their last 10 home games... In fact they have only scored more than 1 goal in 33% of their last 12 games so they have to be a team I avoid for the next couple of weeks and take a watching interest instead.


2) Titles are won in May, not September: Unbelievably, United have moved to odds on to win the Premier League in many places now, but I am not ready to buy their dominance just yet- anyone who watched the game on Sunday will surely accept United got the breaks and were fortunate to escape with a win.


Patrice Evra agreed that United need to play a lot better and the next month will tell us a lot more about the side after they play League games at Liverpool and Everton and also host Manchester City.


History will also show that titles are not won at this time of the season, with only a look at last season showing that off- at this time last season, Chelsea were 4 points clear having won all 5 opening League games and they had a +20 goal difference, yet ended the season with no trophies and sacking their manager.


While the latter part of that will not happen to Sir Alex Ferguson, it is far too early to be handing out medals just yet.


3) Arsenal will not make the top 4 with THAT defence: I did warn people in my preview of the Arsenal game that they are not a good price at odds on away from home with a defence that had been lucky not to concede more goals in recent weeks, yet other sites had tipped them 'to win to nil'... Win to nil? Did no one else watch them against Swansea and Borussia Dortmund?


Arsenal should have lost in Germany and they were very lucky to beat Swansea at home, yet you would have thought it was the 2nd coming of George Graham's famous defence when reading reports from those games.


There is not enough 'proper' defenders in the Arsenal team, the ones who will happily have their nose broken if it meant keeping a clean sheet, and I am really not convinced with their new signings.


Per Mertesacker supporters keep telling me about the number of caps he has picked up for Germany, but he was criticised in his home country for a 'lack of pace and immobility', 2 elements that will be exploited in the Premier League.


I agree the team will take time to find their defensive shape, but I am not convinced they will be good enough to make the top 4 with the personnel they have.


4) Leicester may have got over the home 'heebie jeebies': Leicester had a very strong home record last season, but, as I have mentioned before, I felt they were struggling a little bit this season because of the expectations that this team will win promotion to the Premier League.


After losing their first 2 League games at the King Power Stadium, they have won back to back games there against Southampton and Brighton, 2 unbeaten teams that were flying high in the League.


I think that could represent a turning point at home for a team that has plenty of Premier League experience and quality to count on and I think the Foxes could start pushing their way up the table, especially if they keep their away form up too.

Things we Learned from the Weekend Football (September 10-12)

Another Premier League weekend has come and gone and there are no signs that the Manchester clubs are deciding to slow down in their fast starts to the season.

So what did I learn from this weekend:

1) Arsenal still have some real issues to resolve: Yes, the team are off the mark in terms of League wins but there was nothing really impressive about the manner of their 1-0 home win over Swansea, with the away side having their chances to grab something from the game with better finishing.

A top 4 place will be a successful season for the Gunners in my opinion. That will still take some effort judging on the first game for the new look team on Saturday.

While I don't think it's wise to judge a team on one game, I maintain that the signings of Mikel Arteta and Yossi Benayoun are significant downgrades compared with Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri and they don't have the same pace and movement in the team.

The next few games will tell us a lot more about the Gunners and how they will fare this season.

2) Both Manchester Clubs look mighty impressive Manchester United and Manchester City continue their game of trying to improve on each other's performances, with United beating Bolton 0-5 away from home after City had destroyed Wigan 3-0 at home earlier in the day.

Both teams are playing some special football at the moment, with the current performances having everyone involved in the clubs looking forward to October 23rd more and more.

3) A lack of goals could cost the promoted clubs this season: All 3 of the promoted clubs are struggling for goals, scoring a combined 3 goals in their 12 League games this season.

I have the most worries for Norwich and Swansea as neither club is likely to break the bank in January and hurt their long term aims, while QPR's new owner is much more likely to flash the cash to ensure they are still in the Premier League next season.

Norwich and Swansea have squads that are unlikely to be heavily broken up if they do get relegated, but it will stand them in good stead to have a good go at returning to the Premier League at the first opportunity.

4) There may be some serious questions about the squad harmony at Chelsea coming out: Fernando Torres was dropped this week after suggesting in an interview that his struggles have been down to the 'older' and 'slower' players at Chelsea.

There are some big egos at Stamford Bridge and this may be a sign that the added tension of a player being signed that was not wanted by the management is causing a disruptive influence as the style of play does not suit him.

A question mark has always been placed around Chelsea's dressing room and how the players get on with one another, especially the big names that considered their place in the starting line up a guarantee,  and it will be interesting to see how that plays out.

Things Learned from the Weekend Football (August 27-28)

A bit later than usual due to my covering of the US Open outright picks and daily picks, but these are my thoughts from the weekend football:

1)Where else to start but Manchester United 8-2 Arsenal: This looks more like a baseball score than it does a football match as United completely and utterly destroyed the Gunners.


I think there is much more to say about Arsenal than there is to say about United. The goals scored by Wayne Rooney and Ashley Young were very good, but the defending of the away side would have looked embarrassing on the Hackney Marshes on a Sunday morning.


The most apt comment I heard following the match from a fellow United fan was 'how could Arsene Wenger allow the Invincibles to become this'- when looking back at that team that remained unbeaten, it was hard to imagine ANY of the starting XI on Sunday being able to break into it.


I know Arsenal have had injuries, but since selling both Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri I don't think it is reasonable to say they were missing enough players to justify the scoreline from Sunday. Alex Song, Thomas Vermaelan and Bacary Sagna would have made a difference, but it has been clear to most Arsenal fans throughout the Summer that they needed reinforcements.


Wenger tried to be clever with the media in suggesting both Fabregas and Nasri were not going to be sold, but did anyone really believe that? And if we didn't believe that, HOW have Arsenal not had replacements lined up?


It seems it will be a busy couple of days in the transfer market for Wenger, and this could be the ultimate test of his management at the club- get these wrong, and it would not be a great surprise if Arsenal decide to move on without him next Summer.


I personally think Wenger deserves a chance to get things right at the club, but his stubbornness may already have cost the club a place in the Champions League next season.




2) It is far too early to put Liverpool down as potential Champions, but they are going the right way: I don't think Liverpool are ready to break their 21 year run without winning the League this season, although I was more than a little impressed with their performance in the win over Bolton at the weekend. The team looks to be settling down nicely for Kopites, but I think the game against Sunderland at the start of the season is more an indication of why they will not win the League this season.


In all honesty, I think Kenny Dalglish's aim this year was to return to the Champions League and Arsenal's problems suggest there will be a chance to grab the 4th place available for English sides.


Luis Suarez looks a handful and Steven Gerrard is yet to play a game this season. However, I still think they need defensive reinforcements although the signing of Sebastien Coates looks a decent one.




3) Chelsea should break the bank to get Luka Modric: Once again, the Chelsea midfield looks pedestrian at best against a side that should not cause too many problems and it was only the introduction of Juan Mata that gave the side an additional cutting edge.


I have no doubt the attackers will get the goals IF they are given the service and so I would do everything to buy Luka Modric, a player that will keep the midfield ticking along. The likes of Ramires and Frank Lampard just do not have the capabilities that a Modric will give the team, especially if Roman Abramhovic has real ambitions of winning one of the two top prizes this season.


With Modric and Mata, Chelsea can prevent a Manchester duopoly- without, I can't see them being creative enough to win the title or the Champions League.




4) Manchester City are the real deal: I was very impressed with the ruthlessness of City at the weekend as they literally took every chance they created in dismantling Tottenham Hotspur at White Hart Lane.


The fluid, interchanging football of David Silva, Samir Nasri and Sergio Aguero will cause most teams plenty of problems, while Edin Dzeko looks like the striker that couldn't stop scoring at Wolfsburg.


They still have other options like Adam Johnson, James Milner, Mario Balotelli and Carlos Tevez and look more than set to go close in both the Premier League and Champions League this season.


Personally, I cannot wait for October 23rd.




5) Blackburn look in a bit of trouble: If Saturday represents the type of luck Blackburn will enjoy this season, they are worth punting on to be relegated.


After missing not one but TWO penalties, Everton were controversially handed one of their own to somehow steal all 3 points at Ewood Park.


Steve Kean may be looking for a new job sooner than later considering the owners expectations of a European berth.




With August drawing to a close, I will not be making any more punts on the football until September so below is the end of month results:

AUGUST FOOTBALL PROFIT/LOSS: 31-29, + 7.94 Units

Saturday 13th August Football Picks (English and Scottish Premier League)

Finally... After 2 loooong months, football is finally back in its finest form as the English Premier League returns to action. After all the riots that broke out up and down the country over the last week, it will be nice to be able to sit down and be entertained for 90 minutes and forget about all the crap... well unless you have a ticket for Ewood Park to see Blackburn play Wolves (sorry Blackburn and Wolves fans).

It is always tough to predict how teams will react at this stage of the season as new signings are blooded and different teams will be at different stages of the return to full match fitness. For that reason alone I would not launch myself into a 2 footed tackle (my fault for following Rio Ferdinand's Twitter page) and dive into big picks.

Instead, I have had a look through the Saturday coupon and picked out the following matches:

Liverpool v Sunderland (http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-11300-Liverpool-v-Sunderland.htm)

Fulham v Aston Villa (http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-11306-Fulham-v-Aston-Villa.htm)

Newcastle United v Arsenal (http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-11301-Newcastle-United-v-Arsenal.htm)

Inverness CT v Rangers (http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-11317-Inverness-CT-v-Rangers.htm)

You can either just skip to the bottom of the post for my picks or read my full thoughts at the links provided in the brackets


MY PICKS: Liverpool win to nil @ 2.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Fulham @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Newcastle United-Arsenal Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Rangers win to nil @ 2.38 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)


AUGUST FOOTBALL UPDATE: 3-4, - 2.1 Units

Who will win the Premier League?

This is a follow up to the post last week trying to predict who will be relegated from the top flight in England this season. With a few days to go until the final furlong is run in the title race, I thought this would be the perfect time to finish the predictions and see if there is any value left in any markets.

Without further ado,

Manchester United, 63 points
West Ham United (A)- a tough fixture for United with injury worries, bad away form and playing against a team who are fighting for their lives. May have to settle for 1 point

Fulham (H)- I expect Mark Hughes to make life difficult for his former club, but United are too strong at Old Trafford, even with the Champions League games with Chelsea on either side of this game, 3 points

Newcastle (A)- again I worry about United's away form, but they do have a strong record at St James' Park and I expect a reaction from the FA Cup Semi Final with Manchester City regardless of the result, 3 points

Everton (H)- a really tough home fixture, but Everton are a little toothless up front so close home win, 3 points

Arsenal (A)- this game could come between a potential Champions League Semi Final, which may make it harder. United do have a good record in this part of London, 1 point

Chelsea (H)- Chelsea seem to have an edge over United in recent games, and could become only the 2nd team to pick up something from Old Trafford, 1 point

Blackburn (A)- a local derby that was the beginning of the end of United's title challenge last season when the game ended 0-0 here. United learn from their mistakes against a potentially relegated rival, 3 points

Blackpool (H)- I would take it now if someone said United have to win this game to win the title for a record 19th time. Entertaining 3 points

Manchester United = 81 points


Arsenal, 58 points
Blackburn (H)- the potential loss of Robin Van Persie will effect the side in the long term, but not for this game, 3 points

Blackpool (A)- much like Arsenal are made for Barcelona's style of football, Blackpool are made for Arsenal's,  3 points

Liverpool (H)- could be a tougher assignment for Arsenal than it may look at first glance, especially with Andy Carroll, Luiz Suarez and Steven Gerrard in the away line up and a surprise drop of 2 points,  1 point

Tottenham (A)- Spurs may only be playing for a top 4 berth by now, and have enough matchwinners to hurt Arsenal as proven in their last 2 League games against one another, 0 points

Bolton (A)- Bolton play good football under Owen Coyle, but the players may be thinking about a FA Cup Final by now, 3 points

Manchester United (H)- 1 point, see United

Stoke (A)- Tony Pulis has no love lost for Arsene Wenger and fires up his side to end the Gunners' title challenge, 1 point

Aston Villa (H)- Arsenal are far too good for a Villa side who have players looking forward to holidays and perhaps moves away from Villa Park in the Summer, 3 points

Fulham (A)- Fulham can make life difficult for any sides at home, and Arsenal have had a tough season, 1 point

Arsenal = 74 points


Chelsea, 54 points
Stoke (A)- Chelsea make a few changes to their line up with the game against Manchester United in mind, but still have enough to match the physicality of Stoke and pick up 3 points

Wigan (H)- Chelsea still have work to do at Old Trafford in the 2nd leg of the Champions League QF, but are too strong for Wigan, 3 points

West Brom (A)- the home side make things difficult, but Chelsea have momentum behind them and pick up yet another 3 points

Birmingham (H)- the home side start believing they can retain the title and grab another 3 points

West Ham (H)- it has to be another 3 points

Tottenham (H)- this game could come between a Semi Final meeting with Inter/Schalke in the Champions League, and Spurs cause a surprise, 1 point

Manchester United (A)- 1 point, see United

Newcastle (H)- Chelsea are too strong again, 3 points

Everton (A)- the title is gone, but Chelsea can still finish above Arsenal with a win. They get 1 point and look to West London rivals Fulham to help out. Now on to Wembley for the Champions League Final with Barcelona

Chelsea = 75 points


Manchester City, 53 points
Sunderland (H)- the two weeks International break helps bring some bodies back and the away side is struggling, 3 points

Liverpool (A)- Liverpool have outside chances of making it to the Champions League place with a win. Roberto Mancini sets his side out to be difficult to beat and grab 1 point

Blackburn (A)- North West Derby a week after the FA Cup Semi Final with United... Tough spot for City, 1 point

West Ham (H)- Carlos Tevez haunts his former club, 3 points

Everton (A)- the home side give City a lot of problems and take the win, 0 points

Tottenham (H)- same scenario as last season as City play NOT TO LOSE rather than win and this comes back to bite them, 0 points

Stoke (H)- Stoke have nothing left to play for, and could have just enjoyed the FA Cup Final, 3 points

Bolton (A)- Bolton's season is over but the home fans demand the best against their North West Rivals, 1 point

Manchester City = 65 points


Tottenham, 49 points
Wigan (A)- Spurs are looking ahead to the Real Madrid game on Tuesday and take their eyes of the ball, 1 point

Stoke (H)- its a difficult game, especially with the 2nd leg with Real Madrid to come on Wednesday at White Hart Lane, but Spurs do enough for 3 points

Arsenal (H), 3 points, see Arsenal

West Brom (H)- the Baggies concede too many goals and are punished here, 3 points

Chelsea (A)- 1 point, see Chelsea

Blackpool (H)- Spurs dont miss the chances they did at Bloomfield Road, 3 points

Manchester City (A)- 3 points, see City

Liverpool (A)- Spurs put in so much effort at City, but cant repeat the trick here as the players are feeling a little tired, 0 points

Birmingham (H)- a week off to refresh, and one final push to try and grab a Champions League spot, 3 points

Tottenham = 69 points


Liverpool, 45 points
West Brom (A)- the surprise return of Steven Gerrard and the lively front two of Luiz Suarez and Andy Carroll  lead to 3 points

Manchester City (H)- 1 point, see City

Arsenal (A)- 1 point, see Arsenal

Birmingham (H)- the Reds have too much in front of the Kop, 3 points

Newcastle (H)- Andy Carroll sends his former club closer to the trapdoor, 3 points

Fulham (A)- Fulham are still fighting for their lives and have enough to take 1 point

Tottenham (H)- 3 points, see Tottenham

Aston Villa (A)- Villa are safe and not focused, Kenny Dalglish just wants his side to give the owners something to think about when they discuss money on his permanent contract, 3 points

Liverpool = 63 points


I would be over the moon if this was to happen as it would mean my beloved Manchester United would be Champions for a record 19th time, while the likes of City and Liverpool remained out of the Champions League.

Don't get me wrong, I genuinely picked the results independently without adding up to make sure City and Liverpool failed and United won the title. I dont have a crystal ball so could be way off, and I have not factored in injuries that could hurt teams (Rooney out for the season, Bale/Van der Vaart, Van Persie, etc).

However, the only pick I will make from this is 1 Unit on Tottenham to finish in the top 4.

Tottenham Hotspur to finish in top 4 @ 3.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)


Let us all hope for an exciting 7 weeks to end this topsy-turvy season!