Weekend Football Picks 2016 (March 11-14)

The schedule in March for the football clubs around Europe is very busy and we have an early start to this weekend with the Friday FA Cup Sixth Round clash opening the weekend and the Leicester City versus Newcastle United Premier League game closing the weekend on Monday.

It is a big moment in the season for a number of managers feeling the pressure from poor results, especially as there isn't a lot of time to rectify those mistakes in the months ahead. The season is winding down and big decisions look like they will have to be taken at Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United to right ships that are lacking direction at this moment.


Reading v Crystal Palace Pick: Two teams that have perhaps had disappointing League campaigns meet for a place in the FA Cup Semi Final on Friday night and I think both Reading and Crystal Palace will feel they can do just that.

On current form it is hard to back Crystal Palace, but they have saved their best performances in the FA Cup and they have beaten Premier League sides all the way through he draw. Two of those wins came away from home so a trip to Reading shouldn't hold a lot of fear for them.

On the other hand, Reading have been tough to beat at home in recent weeks and they did show their quality in coming from a goal down to beat West Brom in the Fifth Round. For all of their success in the FA Cup over the last two seasons, that is the first time Reading have beaten a team playing in the Premier League and there is still a big gap for them to bridge.

Playing away from home should suit Crystal Palace with the pace they have in the forward positions and the ability to play on the counter attack. As poor as the form has been for Crystal Palace in recent weeks in terms of results, the performances have perhaps deserved more and they have shown an ability to win away games in the FA Cup.

I think there will be some looking for the upset because of the lack of wins Crystal Palace have had in the Premier League, but I am not sure Reading are up to the level required. Yes, they beat West Brom at home, but Crystal Palace have put more stock in the FA Cup than Tony Pulis did at West Brom and I think that shows up here and I will back the away team at a very reasonable price.


Everton v Chelsea Pick: Roberto Martinez and Guus Hiddink will be desperate to help their respective clubs to move into the FA Cup Semi Final to give this season some meaning. For Martinez it is a way to validate his time at Everton as the pressure builds on him from the stands, and for Hiddink he can help Chelsea at least put a silver lining in a really terrible season for them by recent standards.

Both Everton and Chelsea will play strong teams and this could be the kind of Cup game that really appeals to the neutrals if their Premier League meetings are any indication. Those two Premier League games saw four goals shared out here and six shared out at Stamford Bridge and the way both Everton and Chelsea have been attacking and defending suggests an attacking game could develop here.

There will be desperation in both clubs that might cause some tension, but I think neither team has defended effectively in recent weeks to think that will change too much. Both Martinez and Hiddink will want their teams to express themselves and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out between them.

The last 3 Chelsea away games have all ended with a 2-1 scoreline, while 3 of the last 4 Everton home games have also reached that number.

At Goodison Park 4 of the last 6 games between Everton and Chelsea have reached the three goal number too and I think the price is good enough to back this FA Cup Sixth Round to do the same.


Arsenal v Watford Pick: The injuries in the Arsenal squad means there is little room for rotation for Arsene Wenger and perhaps they are there for the upset this weekend when they host Watford. There is still plenty of quality in the Arsenal ranks, but the defence is going to be unfamiliar as three centre halves are banged up as well as the goalkeeper and that has to be music to the ears of the Watford forwards.

They might not have scored in their last 3 games, but Watford created plenty of chances against both Manchester United and Leicester City. Troy Deeney and Odion Ighalo will cause Arsenal plenty of problems, and Arsene Wenger could easily think attack is the best form of defence in this one.

With the players that Arsenal can call upon in those forward areas, I think The Gunners will be able to pose problems for Watford too, but they could be in trouble on the counter.

The FA Cup means teams will usually give this a go if they are behind and I can see goals in this one with the injuries in the home squad and the attacking threat they pose. If Watford even create half of what they did at Old Trafford earlier this month, they will likely score here and you can believe Arsenal will find their way to goal too.

I am sure Watford would take a draw now and hope to beat Arsenal in the Sixth Round Replay with the heavy schedule taking a toll on an injury hit squad. However this might be their best chance to beat them and I expect The Hornets to have a go here too in what could be another exciting FA Cup game this weekend.


Manchester United v West Ham United Pick: Before the game at Anfield on Thursday night, I looked at the weekend games and noted that Manchester United were odds on to beat West Ham United this weekend. When the draw was made I tweeted out how difficult it was going to be for Manchester United against an in-form West Ham United team and the layers are beginning to catch up with the home team on the drift.

Louis Van Gaal continues to frustrate the fans as his 'philosophy' continues to take Manchester United one step forward and then two steps back. The 2-0 loss at Liverpool in the Europa League has put Manchester United on the brink of exiting that competition and heading out of the FA Cup while out of the top four in the Premier League is going to ramp up the pressure on the Dutchman.

That makes this a huge game for Van Gaal who was rumoured to have been given assurances that he will be kept on as Manchester United manager for the final year of his three year contract he signed. However a defeat here and then going out to Liverpool in the Europa League will see the fans likely turn their anger towards the dugout.

It will be hard to ignore for Ed Woodward and the watching board if that happens and West Ham United have every chance of winning at Old Trafford for the first time since the 2008/09 season. Slaven Bilic has West Ham United playing at a very high level and this is a team that doesn't know when they are beaten as shown by coming from two goals down at Norwich City and Everton.

There is so much to like about the way West Ham United approach their games with pace and creativity in the forward areas adding to some tough defending when it is called for. They showed that at Liverpool in the Fourth Round when forcing a replay at Anfield and West Ham United also drew at Old Trafford in the Premier League this weekend.

I won't lie, I would love to be proved wrong.

However I think West Ham United are vastly overpriced to win here having already won at Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool in the Premier League. That might happen, but I also think Bilic would take the draw and have the Replay back at Upton Park to decide which of these teams is playing at Wembley Stadium in the Semi Final next month.

At just under odds against, West Ham United have to be backed to avoid defeat at a Manchester United team dealing with injuries and poor form. I won't mind if this is one pick I have read wrong, but The Hammers look to be disrespected at the prices and have to be backed out of principle.


Norwich City v Manchester City Pick: I think Norwich City are in a very difficult position in the Premier League as the team looks short of confidence while they are conceding far too many goals in recent weeks. That isn't a good combination and I think their fixtures aren't offering up too many respites if Norwich City are losing at Aston Villa and Swansea City.

Now they have to raise their game against title chasing Manchester City who have plenty of goals left for the season even if they are 10 points behind Leicester City. it is also important for Manchester City to steer clear of those sides chasing a top four berth and Manuel Pellegrini will play a strong team to back up the win over Aston Villa.

I have been torn which way to go.

On one hand I think Manchester City have the kind of attacking talent to replicate the 0-3 win at Carrow Road they achieved in January in the FA Cup. They have also won 4 of their last 5 visits to this ground but only half of those have come by more than a single goal margin.

Instead I think backing over 2.5 goals is the better play with the way Norwich City have defended as they have conceded at least twice in each of their last 5 home games in all competition. However Norwich City have also scored in 8 of their last 9 home games in the Premier League and I think neither team is really going to be too happy with a single point if more is in the offing.

I do think Manchester City will win here and likely by a couple of goals, but Norwich City should play their part and the last 4 Premier League games have produced at least three goals. Games between Norwich City and Manchester City have produced at least three goals in both games this season and in 4 of the last 5 at Carrow Road between them so that looks the better option from this opening Premier League game of the weekend.


Stoke City v Southampton Pick: The Premier League has not really produced too many teams that you can rely upon from week to week, and that is especially the case for the mid-table teams like Stoke City and Southampton. Both teams have had some really memorable results in the 2015/16 season, but also some pretty terrible performances and it can be difficult to guess which kind of team comes out on Saturday.

The form team going into this one is Stoke City who have earned 10 points from their last 12 available in the Premier League. On the other hand Southampton were very close to losing 3 games in a row last weekend before salvaging a 1-1 draw with Sunderland and confidence has to be hit with the loss of Victor Wanyama and Jose Fonte both missing out.

That is a big defensive issue for Southampton in this game against a Stoke City team that have some very good technical players in the forward areas.

Stoke City should be the more settled side that might only be boosted by a potential return of Ryan Shawcross and I do think they have the confidence to win this one.

They look an intriguing price to do that considering how both teams have played of late, especially if Fraser Forster continues to struggle from set pieces. Stoke City have already beaten Southampton earlier this season and might be catching them at the right time, but I couldn't put in more than a small interest in them considering the erratic performances they have had at The Brittania Stadium this season.


Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Mauricio Pochettino has laid his cards on the table and has effectively gone 'all in' on winning the Premier League title this season. His rotation has cost Tottenham Hotspur a place in the Sixth Round of the FA Cup, while their 3-0 loss in Dortmund on Thursday has almost certainly ended their Europa League run.

The rotation used in what looked a big test at Borussia Dortmund to keep the big players ready for this game in the Premier League at Aston Villa means the fans will be looking for a big push towards the title. There is a 5 point gap between Tottenham Hotspur and Leicester City who are leading the way, but Spurs can make a big dent in that by winning a day before the latter play against Newcastle United.

It is almost a 'must win' game for Tottenham Hotspur after the manager has made the decisions he has in the Cup competitions. Anything other than a win and I think Tottenham Hotspur will have missed their chance to challenge for the Premier League title, but it won't be easy against a desperate Aston Villa team.

While Aston Villa are in need of the points and capable of surviving the drop, they will surely keep going on the field, although they have to be a lot better defensively. Aston Villa are conceding goals for fun in recent games and never seem too far from a complete collapse as shown in their 4-0 loss at Manchester City with all those goals coming in the second half.

They have conceded at least three times in losses against Liverpool and Everton at Villa Park and this Tottenham Hotspur team are solid enough defensively to think that makes the difference. I do wonder if the recent blip in form has dented the Tottenham Hotspur confidence but they should be able to right their ship this weekend with what should be a fairly comfortable win at Villa Park.

Tottenham Hotspur have won 4 in a row at Villa Park and 3 of those have come by more than a single goal margin. I will back Pochettino to make the right team selection and Tottenham Hotspur to win this one by a couple of goals.


Leicester City v Newcastle United Pick: When you look at the remaining games that Leicester City have to play in the Premier League, this has to be one they need to win to make sure they are in a position to win the title the neutrals want them to take home. Facing a team in disarray like Newcastle United should be the kind of match that Leicester City have to win and they have played very well at the King Power Stadium in recent weeks.

Players like Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez are playing with plenty of freedom thanks to Claudio Ranieri, while Leicester City are not facing the same kind of injury issues or scheduling conflict as their rivals. That means they should be well rested on Monday evening for this Premier League game, but they won't be sure which manager will be in the dugout for the away side.

Steve McClaren looks days away from being sacked as manager of Newcastle United after overseeing a really poor season to this point. The big question is whether Rafa Benitez will be put in charge ahead of this game or when the vital Tyne-Wear derby comes around which could determine which of those North East rivals are relegated.

The players don't seem to be responding to the former England manager and I think his time at Newcastle United is over, whether that is now or after this game. However that means the players have to take responsibilities for the results Newcastle United are achieving and they have been particularly poor away from home in recent weeks.

Confidence in defensive positions just isn't there and Newcastle United might not have the capabilities to hold out as they look to keep Leicester City at bay. I do think it will be tougher for The Foxes to win games at the King Power Stadium down the stretch as teams sit back, but this Newcastle United team don't look like they are responding to instructions at the moment and I don't see Leicester City dropping points this weekend.

I can see Leicester City having the lead and being able to pick off Newcastle United as the latter try and push forward for an equaliser as the game wears on. With that in mind, I will back Leicester City to cover the Asian Handicap in this one and maintain their 5 point lead in the Premier League at the very least after this round of games has been completed.

MY PICKS: Crystal Palace @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Everton-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Arsenal-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Coral (2 Units)
West Ham United + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Norwich City-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stoke City @ 2.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)

March Update: 14-9-1, + 9.08 Units (47 Units Staked, + 19.32% Yield)

February Final: 30-23-2, + 20.82 Units (105 Units Staked, + 19.83% Yield)

January Final: 19-13, + 17.56 Units (61 Units Staked, + 28.79% Yield)

December Final: 15-23, - 9.32 Units (64 Units Staked, - 14.56% Yield)

November Final: 11-19-1, - 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, - 25.37% Yield)

October Final: 16-25, - 13.51 Units (79.50 Units Staked, - 16.99% Yield)

September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)

August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 107-151-2, - 17.55 Units (572 Units Staked, - 3.07% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2015 (April 7-8)

After the Manchester City loss at Selhurst Park, the owners and men in a position of power at the Etihad Stadium might have made a shortlist similar to this list of ten men that may take over as manager of the club if Manuel Pellegrini is sacked in the summer.

It is a quiet week in English football after the Easter Weekend, but there are still a couple of matches of interest this week with a Sixth Round FA Cup Replay and a huge Premier League game taking the limelight during the week.


Aston Villa v Queens Park Rangers Pick: A relegation six pointer on Tuesday is a huge game for both Aston Villa and Queens Park Rangers with the team that loses likely going to be one of the teams that will occupy the bottom three come the end of May.

A draw would probably be accepted by Aston Villa a little more than Queens Park Rangers, but I can't imagine Tim Sherwood asking his men to settle for that, although he won't have been impressed to have seen Chris Ramsey's troop picking up such a morale boosting win as they had on Saturday at West Brom.

The FA Cup Semi Final that Aston Villa be playing in means this game has been brought forward a couple of weeks, but the home team have to be wishing it wasn't coming just days after Queens Park Rangers rediscovered some form. The goals scored and the performance at The Hawthornes will give Queens Park Rangers a lot of belief, especially as Aston Villa look short of numbers in defensive positions.

On the other hand, Tim Sherwood has helped Aston Villa produce the goods in front of goal and they have at least hit the target in 6 of their last 8 games. At Villa Park they had scored in 6 consecutive games before the 0-1 defeat to Swansea and Queens Park Rangers have been far from watertight at the back all season.

Aston Villa look short to win this game considering the performance Queens Park Rangers had on Saturday, but one market still stands out to me and that is the chances of there being at least three goals shared. 7 of the last 8 Queens Park Rangers away games have seen that number hit, while Aston Villa had seen 5 straight home games hit that number before their latest 2 games at Villa Park.

At odds against, this looks a big price considering both managers are likely to take an attacking approach to the game where the three points are a huge factor. I can see a 2-1 scoreline either way in this one and backing at least three goals is my call.


Blackburn Rovers v Liverpool Pick: Any time a team reaches the Quarter Final of any Cup competition, they will take it seriously with the smell of silverware very much in the nostrils. However, this FA Cup has taken on extra significance for Liverpool after two Premier League defeats that has likely left them short in their bid to reach the Champions League.

Brendan Rodgers told the press that he thinks the top four is now beyond them and also made it clear that Liverpool do want to win the FA Cup to provide some happiness for their supporters. All in all it has been a disappointing season for Liverpool who were so close to winning the Premier League last season, but they can mainly blame the opening three months of the campaign for their struggles now.

And it is far from a guarantee that Liverpool are going to make their short odds to win at Ewood Park come through, especially in light of the defensive problems they have through suspension and injury. Losing Emre Can for this game to join Martin Skrtel and Steven Gerrard is a big blow for Liverpool, especially if Dejan Lovren is not fit either and it might result in a change of system which has been very productive for Brendan Rodgers in recent weeks.

Even if Lovren is able to take his place in the line up, Blackburn Rovers have shown they have a lot of pace in the forward positions which could trouble a player that has been out through injury for a while. That pace hurt Swansea and Stoke City to the extent that they were reduced to ten men as they couldn't keep up when the play went behind them and Blackburn Rovers will feel they can trouble Liverpool too.

Of course you would have to expect Liverpool will pose problems for Blackburn Rovers through Philippe Coutinho, Raheem Sterling and Daniel Sturridge and this could be an exciting game for the neutrals to watch. Both teams will give this a go and an early goal will only make the team with that advantage very dangerous on the counter-attack and I believe there will be at least three goals shared between the teams.

That has happened in all three away ties Liverpool have played in the FA Cup this season and in both Blackburn Rovers' home games against Swansea and Stoke City and looks a decent price at just under odds against.

MY PICKS: Aston Villa-Queens Park Rangers Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Blackburn Rovers-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

April Update: 3-2, + 1.40 Units (10 Units Staked, + 14% Yield)

March Final: 30-18, + 30.66 Units (88 Units Staked, + 34.84% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 130-162-4, + 4.43 Units (509 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2015 (March 7-9)

There isn't much going on regarding the top of the English game with the FA Cup Sixth Round decimating the Premier League schedule and leaving just one game to play. Out of the four Quarter Final Cup games, the best game has been left to last on the Monday so it is a fairly quiet week all things considered.

All of the top teams in the Premier League won during the week meaning we are as we were in those positions, but the Aston Villa late win over West Brom might be a critical three points that can keep that team in the top flight. There are still plenty of twists and turns to come over the next few weeks, but it does put pressure on Queens Park Rangers to earn something from the home game with Tottenham Hotspur and avoid the bottom three being cut off already.

The three teams that were promoted last season occupy the bottom three places, but I still think Leicester City have the best chance of getting out of trouble with the fixtures they have remaining. Of course that means winning games they are supposed to and it will all depend on whether Nigel Pearson can motivate his players and give them the belief that they are good enough to stay in the Premier League.


Queens Park Rangers v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This is a big game for both Queens Park Rangers and Tottenham Hotspur if they are to achieve their individual goals for the season and the three points should be precious enough to see both Chris Ramsey and Mauricio Pochettino set up their sides to earn those.

It should be an exciting game because Tottenham Hotspur have shown enough going forward to make them a threat to score goals, but have not been very good defensively. The two full-backs are both liabilities when it comes to defending, and that is me being kind about Kyle Walker and Danny Rose, and I do think Queens Park Rangers will create chances.

Charlie Austin has shown he can score goals at this level, but QPR have also been very vulnerable defensively and it would be a real surprise to me if this is a low-scoring game to be perfectly honest.

The feeling is that this will be a 2-1 scoreline either way, but I think Tottenham Hotspur are too short at odds against to trust considering they have only won 1 of their last 6 away games in all competitions. 

The layers have the same expectation for goals, but I can't argue against those and will back there being at least three goals shared by these teams on Saturday.


Bradford City v Reading Pick: This is the opening FA Cup tie of Sixth Round weekend as Bradford City look to earn another surprise win in this competition this season. They have beaten teams from higher Divisions in each of their last three ties and Bradford City's 2-4 win at Stamford Bridge will live long in the memory of the fans that were lucky enough to attend that afternoon.

Phil Parkinson has to think that Bradford City won't have a better chance to reach the Semi Final at Wembley Stadium than this weekend with a home draw against the lowest team left in the competition, aside from themselves of course, and having the home draw.

That is likely the exact way Reading are feeling except not playing at home, but that might also be a benefit for the Royals who have saved their best performances for away from the Majedski Stadium. They have won all three FA Cup ties this season away from home and Reading have only lost 1 of their last 7 away games so may feel they can do enough to get something from Valley Parade and a move into the Semi Final themselves.

The pitch at Valley Parade hasn't been in the best condition so this could be tough for either team to really play their football and I do imagine a tight game developing between them. The prize at the end of ninety minutes is going to create tension of it's own and both Bradford City and Reading will be looking at their home/away forms respectively and feel they can win this game.

It might only take a goal to separate the teams at the end of this one, but there is every chance that Bradford and Reading have to do it again in Berkshire in two weeks time. I'll back this tie to end up being too tight and tense to find a winner and a replay to be the outcome in ten days time.


Aston Villa v West Brom Pick: During the week these two teams came up against one another in the Premier League and I felt it was going to be a tight, tense encounter that might not produce a lot of goals. However, Aston Villa took the game to West Brom and perhaps should have been out of sight by half time, but showed their own vulnerabilities by allowing the Baggies back into the game.

It was a remarkable piece of poor goalkeeping from Ben Foster that cost West Brom from getting anything from that game and now the same two teams meet in the FA Cup Sixth Round with a place at Wembley Stadium on the line.

Out of the two managers, you have to think that Tim Sherwood is likely to stick with a more consistent line up compared with Tony Pulis who may not want to risk players that have been carrying knocks. However, West Brom are in a decent position in the Premier League and fans won't be happy if their manager decides to give up a place in the FA Cup Semi Final without a fight and I do think both teams will be able to play with more freedom than in the Premier League game.

Neither team will really want a replay to congest their Premier League schedule and I think there was enough going forward in the League game to suggest the layers are taking a chance with there being goals in this one. The last 5 Aston Villa games at Villa Park in all competitions have provided at least three goals in them, while 3 of the last 4 West Brom away games have done the same.

I would note that 4 of the last 5 Aston Villa games have seen a 90th minute goal to take it over the two goal mark so the layers are perhaps thinking that kind of luck has to change. However, Aston Villa created enough chances in the game during the week to think they can score in this one, while their own defensive problems mean West Brom will have a chance to score goals themselves.

With the freedom of the Cup rather than priceless points on the line, I think the teams will give this game more of a go and I will back there being at least three goals at a big price.


Liverpool v Blackburn Rovers Pick: I have been warily watching Liverpool from a distance over the last couple of months as a Manchester United fan as each dropped points by my team was seeing Liverpool close in on the top four. They are now the biggest threat to Manchester United making their way into the Champions League places and that form should carry them through to the FA Cup Semi Final with this home tie against Blackburn Rovers to come.

You do have to credit Blackburn Rovers from coming from a goal down to beat Swansea and Stoke City in the previous two Rounds, but they had the benefit of seeing both of those teams reduced to ten men. Swansea lost a player at 0-0, while Stoke City lost a player at 1-1 and I do think something like that will need to happen for Blackburn Rovers to avoid a comfortable loss here.

There is pace in the Blackburn forward line which will give Liverpool some problems, but Jordan Henderson, Raheem Sterling, Philippe Coutinho, Adam Lallana and Daniel Sturridge have all been playing very well and should hurt Blackburn. There is pace, ingenuity and finishing ability amongst those forward players for Liverpool and they have been creating plenty of chances to score goals.

It took an inspired Tom Heaton performance to prevent Burnley taking a real hammering on Wednesday and Blackburn Rovers may be reliant on Jason Steele/Simon Eastwood to prevent them taking that beating instead.

Blackburn Rovers may have some joy going forward, but I fear they are going to be on the defensive for much of this game and an early Liverpool game may see the home team ease through to the Semi Final. With plenty of time to wait before being back in action again, Brendan Rodgers won't want a replay so I expect a strong Liverpool team to be put out and the home team to come through with a win by at least two goals.


Manchester United v Arsenal Pick: This is easily the tie of the Round and both Manchester United and Arsenal will know who their likely Semi Final opponent is before the game kicks off on Monday evening. Both teams have similar aims remaining for the season with the ambition of picking up the FA Cup in May and also securing a top four berth in the Champions League.

The winner of the tie will certainly feel they can go all the way in this competition, but Arsenal look in a stronger position to finish in the top four of the Premier League than Manchester United at this current stage. Their second League meeting in May could have a huge factor in that and this tie could produce a psychological edge for the remainder of the season.

It might be a really big game for Manchester United to prove they can beat the best teams in the Premier League knowing they play Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool in the remainder of the month. Louis Van Gaal's tactics have begun to be criticised for disciplining the players to the extent that their creative freedom is being strangled, but Manchester United have been much more effective at home and that edge might prove to be critical in this one.

Manchester United have won a lot of games at Old Trafford last season and have gotten the better of Arsenal in their games in this Stadium with 9 wins from the last 10 games. That includes beating Arsenal 4-0 and 2-0 in FA Cup ties in recent seasons, although Arsene Wenger can be criticised for making too many changes to his Arsenal team in those games.

I can't imagine that being the case on Monday, although I do think Arsenal have looked a little nervous in their two wins since losing to Monaco. The first goal could be critical in this one and it might mean a nervy first half, but neither side will really want to add extra games to their remaining schedules so I do think both will look to get forward and score goals.

Both teams have match winners in their line up, but both defences seem to be just a moment away from panicking badly if they make one or two mistakes. I do think there will be goals in the game on Monday, but Manchester United look a very big price considering their successes against Arsenal. Even the smash n grab at the Emirates Stadium shows the players still believe they can beat the Gunners and Manchester United have been very good at Old Trafford.

Manchester United are a lot shorter to beat Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League the week after this game and I don't think Arsenal are that much better that the price for the home win is as big as we see.

MY PICK: Queens Park Rangers-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Bradford City-Reading Draw @ 3.40 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Aston Villa-West Brom Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.55 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 2.50 Bet Fred (2 Units)

March Update: 3-4, + 1.70 Units (10 Units Staked, + 17% Yield)

February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 100-144-4, - 26.23 Units (421 Units Staked, - 6.23% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2014 (Match 8-9)

I don't know about you, but I can honestly say I saw about ten minutes of the international matches that were played during the week as I just can't tolerate the friendlies. Like many, I am beginning to look forward to the World Cup in Brazil that is less than 100 days away from now, but friendly games just break up the domestic season for me and that isn't much fun.

It also means that many of the teams in the Premier League have had to work with skeleton squads during the week and that makes it hard to prepare for matches this weekend, while also means some managers will rest players who may have hard workouts during the week.

With the FA Cup Sixth Round to be played days before the Champions League Last 16 second legs are to be played, it will also be interesting to see the kind of teams that Arsenal and Manchester City play knowing they have to overturn 0-2 deficits at two of the toughest European away venues.


With the League Cup already in the bag, some Manchester City fans may already be dreaming of achieving the domestic treble, something not even Manchester United have managed having come closest in 1994 when beaten in the League Cup Final before winning the Premier League and the FA Cup.

It would be a huge achievement if City can achieve that and they have a very winnable game this weekend in the Sixth Round of the FA Cup, but may find themselves 9 points behind Chelsea in the Premier League table if the latter beat Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday afternoon. Manchester City would have three games in hand, but points on the board are much more important at this stage of the season and one of the games in hand is a trip to Old Trafford where Manchester United would be desperate for the three points too.


Personally I still have Chelsea sneaking the Premier League title from Manchester City and the current top four to finish in those positions, although not necessarily in their current order.


West Brom v Manchester United Pick: This should be a very interesting Premier League game on Saturday afternoon although television coverage is going to be shared with the Arsenal-Everton FA Cup Sixth Round game which is surprising to me.

Most Manchester United fans won't be worrying about the Cup as they look to keep the pressure on the top four teams in the Premier League, although that pressure won't be feeling so great for those sides considering the gap there is currently. However, if United have real ambitions of finishing in the top four, they will need to win this game and then try and build some momentum for home games against Liverpool and Manchester City which could present a real chance to close the gap.

I think the fans have already accepted that the top four is likely gone and it will be interesting to see what kind of response David Moyes gets from the players that played so appallingly against Olympiacos in the Champions League. Juan Mata will at least give the team a little more quality, but it is all important for United to take the lead in the game if they are to win the match as confidence quickly erodes if they fall behind.

West Brom have also been having a difficult time with a new manager, but they have proven to be tough to beat at the Hawthornes in the Premier League. They have had a bit of luck go their way to avoid defeat in some of their games, but it is interesting to see they have earned draws against top teams like Everton, Liverpool and Chelsea here in the last six weeks.

Plenty of people would be intrigued by the offer of 6.50 that West Brom come from behind to either draw or win this game, especially considering they have been behind in 5 of their last 6 games at home in the Premier League, a run of games where West Brom remain unbeaten.

That is appealing, but Manchester United have actually played better in some matches than the results would indicate and I also believe this side gains a lot of confidence when they take the lead. It is highlighted by the fact that United have only failed to win 1 game that they have led away from home in the Premier League this season, that coming at Cardiff City.

If United go in front, I expect they will be too strong for West Brom and record the three points in this game, but there is every chance they will concede too even with back to back clean sheets in the Premier League away from home. I like an interest in United winning a fairly high-scoring game which has been a trend when these teams meet at the Hawthornes.


Cardiff City v Fulham Pick: I am not trying to make a huge statement with this, but how could this be anything but a 'must win' game for either of these teams with 9 games left to play for both once this one is in the books.

Both Cardiff City and Fulham have terrible goal differences and will have played at least one game more than the sides above them in the table by Saturday evening so the losing team in this one is going to be a huge favourite to be relegated in May.

That isn't to say that both managers are going to be satisfied with a draw either as that poor goal difference means they are likely going to need more points than at least three other teams to survive in the top flight.

All of that should lead to an attacking game with both teams hoping to avoid the defensive mistakes that have blighted their seasons in a bid to earn the three points. It is hard to imagine either being able to keep a clean sheet with the way they have played to this point, although Cardiff and Fulham could have attacks that are struggling with their confidence too.

However, those attacks could be played into form with the chances they are likely to get in this game and I expect both teams will score at least once. The fact that the three points are as priceless as they are going to be means neither is likely to sit back and accept the draw and I can see this game having at least three goals scored, but picking a winner is beyond me (gun  to the head I would pick Fulham).


Crystal Palace v Southampton Pick: I have to tell you that my immediate reaction was of surprise that Crystal Palace are such a big price to win this game considering how well they have played at Selhurst Park since Tony Pulis took over as manager. Couple that with the lack of form shown by Southampton in the last couple of weeks and I think the away side are being a touch over-rated in this one.

The problem I have for Southampton is how their players can find the motivation to dig deep in games like this which don't mean an awful lot to them in the grand scheme of things. Of course the likes of Adam Lallana and Luke Shaw want to impress for England purposes, but they have bigger games ahead where their talents will be exposed to the nation and they are coming off the high of representing their nation during the week.

On the other hand, Crystal Palace are desperate for points and will have targeted games like this as vital if they want to avoid the drop. They have also played much better of late and have really only lost to the very best teams.

Tactically you can expect Southampton to have a lot of the ball, but Palace have been sound defensively and I expect the likes of Tom Ince and Jason Puncheon to cause some problems for a team that conceded 3 goals at West Ham United. Set pieces will also be critical for Crystal Palace if they are to spring the three points and I am tempted to back them to do so.

However, they are offered at 1.80 to avoid defeat and I think they have the defensive shape to avoid conceding more than one goal in this game and that should be enough for Crystal Palace to at least earn a point.


Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: I am not the biggest fan of Jose Mourinho's proclamations that Chelsea are not capable of winning the Premier League title this season because of the squad he has inherited, although I would agree that they are perhaps a top striker short of being a clear favourite. Chelsea have shown defensive resiliency and have three players in Eden Hazard, Oscar and Willian that will create opportunities.

Hazard in particular has improved as the season has progressed and is capable of producing the magic moment that separates draws from wins, while confidence has to be in a good place following the late winner against Everton, the stuff that Champions are made of.

It won't be an easy game against Tottenham Hotspur who have won the most away games in the Premier League to this point of the season, but one that hit the buffers in recent games. Tim Sherwood is trying to get the best out of his squad, but Tottenham looked poor in a loss at Norwich City and didn't exactly dominate in the 1-0 win over Cardiff City last weekend.

Spurs have struggled at Stamford Bridge, but they have earned draws in their last two games here including a 2-2 draw towards the end of last season and I do see them posing problems.

However, I think Chelsea will prove too strong defensively and will win this game. Chelsea have kept 4 clean sheets in a row at Stamford Bridge and it has to be noted that Spurs have lost all 3 League away games without scoring a goal including the defeat at Norwich City.

In fact, Tottenham Hotspur have lost 5 away games all season and have failed to score in every one of those defeats so backing Chelsea to win this game without conceding is my pick.


Arsenal v Everton Pick: This is quite comfortably the tie of the Round in the FA Cup and the winner will have real ambitions of going all the way and picking up the trophy in May, Manchester City notwithstanding.

The biggest factor that is hard to determine from this game is what kind of team will Arsene Wenger send out onto the field- I think the Frenchman isn't one to give up on a tie and I don't think he really believes Arsenal can't overturn the deficit against Bayern Munich so whether he rests some players will be interesting to see.

That could be a risky approach as Everton have been playing well enough to cause problems especially with a focal point of their attack back in the squad in the form of Romelu Lukaku. There is no doubt that they have missed his presence in games against Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea (although he couldn't play against the latter anyway) and his return paid dividends with the winning goal last weekend.

Lukaku gives Everton some pace and power up front which makes their runners from midfield that much more dangerous and I think they could definitely create chances as they have been in their losses at White Hart Lane and Stamford Bridge. With the Belgian in the line up, Everton should be a little bit more clinical in the forward positions and I think they have every chance of springing the shock in this one if Arsenal rest players for the Champions League game on Tuesday.

Arsenal have failed to score in 5 of their last 30 home games in all competitions so it would still be a surprise if they didn't hit the net against Everton despite the improved defensive play in the last 2 away games for Everton. With the additional forward power back in the line up, I like both teams to score once in this one.

MY PICKS: Manchester United to Win and 3 or 4 Total Goals in the Match @ 4.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Cardiff City-Fulham Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Crystal Palace + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chelsea Win to Nil @ 2.70 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Arsenal-Everton Both Teams to Score @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

March Update: 3-3, + 0.2 Units (11 Units Staked, + 1.81% Yield)

February Final: 12-28, - 16.74 Units (61 Units Staked, - 27.44% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 111-131-3, - 4.03 Units (389 Units Staked, - 1.04% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)