Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (March 7-9)

I was away for a few days which meant I was not able to post a thread here, but Twitter followers would have seen my move from Jack Grealish to James Maddison for the FPL game... A move that didn't work out as well as I would have wanted.

It was still not a bad week, but I will get back to that at the bottom of this post.

Before we get into GW29 of the FPL game I will have my thoughts down for the Weekend Premier League Football, although those are feelings rather than anything more forceful.


Liverpool v Bournemouth Pick: There is no doubt that Liverpool have hit a slightly awkward patch in what has been a strong season for them, and it is going to take a serious turnaround if they are going to at least find some momentum to take into their Champions League Last 16 Second Leg to come.

Losses at Atletico Madrid, Watford and Chelsea would have stung as much for the level of performance as the actual result.

However it should be noted that all have come away from Anfield and this ground is still a fortress for Liverpool even if they had to rely on some big West Ham United mistakes to beat The Hammers 3-2 last time out here. Key players have been rested by Jurgen Klopp for the loss at Chelsea during the week and I expect they will have been itching to get back on the field and make up for the defeat at Vicarage Road last Saturday.

The opponent also looks a good one for Liverpool as Bournemouth continue to look haphazard at the back and have been struggling on the road for much of the last three months. Last weekend Bournemouth almost did enough to beat Chelsea, but the game was at home and they have lost 5 away games in succession while conceding a host of chances in those matches.

Goals have been flowing against Bournemouth too and I do think they could face something of a backlash here. The match up with Liverpool has not been a good one with 5 losses in a row by three or more goal margins, and I do think Liverpool are still playing well enough at Anfield to build some steam behind them.

I can’t completely ignore the form that Liverpool find themselves in, but losing back to back games has been rare for this team and I think they can bounce back with a comfortable win on Saturday afternoon. It is hard to imagine Bournemouth being able to defend well enough to contain the home team and so another big win would not be a surprise in favour of Liverpool.

Score: Liverpool 3-0 Bournemouth


Arsenal v West Ham United Pick: Both of these clubs have shown signs of improvement under new managers at different times, but it may be West Ham United who come into this League game with a little more spring in the step.

A solid performance at Liverpool was followed by a win over Southampton and that has dragged West Ham United out of the bottom three. However you have to be concerned with the amount of goals they continue to ship and now they face an Arsenal team who have looked in decent shape when they go forward.

The bigger issue for Arsenal has also been at the back and making sure they keep the door locked, From set pieces they have been a mess so it would not be a big surprise if David Moyes is able to set something up to give the home team problems to deal with.

Ultimately it feels like an entertaining and goal-filled afternoon is going to develop and that is my feeling from the fixture. Arsenal have scored plenty of goals, but look unlikely to keep a clean sheet, while West Ham United have also struggled at the back.

The level produced at Anfield is encouraging for the visitors, but I think they continue to have problems in conceding too many goals and that is where Arsenal should be able to take advantage. The Gunners have won 4 in a row at home against West Ham United and I think they continue that streak by winning a fixture featuring at least two goals scored on the day.

Score: Arsenal 3-1 West Ham United


Crystal Palace v Watford Pick: If Crystal Palace had not taken maximum points from their last 2 Premier League games they would have been firmly involved in the relegation battle that is developing. Instead they are now likely just a single win away from guaranteeing another season in the top flight, although Roy Hodgson won’t be taking anything for granted.

How could he after seeing the performance Watford produced in their 3-0 hammering of Liverpool last weekend?

Nigel Pearson will hope that gives his team some momentum with four good looking fixtures in front of them. Watford have been much improved under his watch and they have some exciting players that will believe they can win this game having beaten Crystal Palace 3 times last season.

Earlier in this campaign they had to settle for a draw, but Watford won’t be intimidated and they have the pace in the forward areas to cause problems.

Ultimately they have not been at their best at the back and that is where even a goal-shy Crystal Palace team can have some success. Goals have not been the order of the day at Selhurst Park this season, but these teams have tended to match up well with each other and it feels like being the case on Saturday too.

7 of the last 8 between Crystal Palace and Watford at this ground have ended with at least three goals shared out. That may be pushing things a bit, but the 1-1 is a real player and I do think both teams will be looking to get forward and can hurt the other when they do.

Both teams to score looks the play despite the low scores we have seen at this ground this season.

Score: Crystal Palace 1-1 Watford


Sheffield United v Norwich City Pick: Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United all failed to win last weekend while Sheffield United had the time off and that will have given the fans further belief that this could be one of the most memorable seasons in the history of the club.

While no one will be looking too far ahead inside Bramall Lane, you can't help but see there is a real path towards the Champions League places that Sheffield United can perhaps take control of over the next few weeks. They will play the likes of Wolves and Manchester United around them, but those matches will not mean so much if they can't beat Norwich City this weekend.

For all the positives about Chris Wilder and his team, you do have to wonder if they have enough goals in the squad. It is most evident when they have played the 'lesser' clubs in the Division and the likes of Southampton, Newcastle United, Watford and Brighton have all avoided losses here.

West Ham United almost stole a point too before a late VAR intervention, and in all of those five games mentioned Sheffield United have not scored more than one goal.

They might need more to win this game against a Norwich City team who have been creating chances even if they are not as clinical away from Carrow Road as they would like to be. There is a real confidence at the bottom club that they can surprisingly pull away from the bottom three, and Daniel Farke won't lose his principles now which means Norwich City will at least give this a go.

Defensively there remain some major questions that Sheffield United will be looking to have answered and I do think the home team might have just enough. While they are not completely easy to trust with the lack of goals an issue, Sheffield United have beaten Burnley, Bournemouth and Aston Villa here and in all of those games they did find the two goals needed to secure the points.

I will look for them to do that this weekend too.

Score: Sheffield United 2-1 Norwich City


Southampton v Newcastle United Pick: Both Southampton and Newcastle United may look relatively comfortable with ten League games to play, but both Ralph Hasenhuttl and Steve Bruce will be reminding their players how quickly things can change.

Neither team is in great form and the improvements that Bournemouth, Watford and now West Ham United are showing means the 5 points to Newcastle United and 7 points to Southampton is a bridgeable gap.

That makes this a very important game for both teams and I do think there will be chances at both ends.

Newcastle United earned a morale-boosting win at The Hawthorns on Tuesday, but both of these teams look capable of creating chances and struggling defensively at times.

It is particularly the case for Newcastle United away from home and I think it could mean a repeat of the earlier meeting between these teams and at least three goals being shared out. Before the goalless draw last season, that had happened the previous 4 times Southampton had hosted Newcastle United and the defensive performances of the two teams in recent weeks suggest we could see this one go back to that trend.

Tension and fear of a defeat could take some of the effective play out of this fixture, but I can see it ending 2-1 either way and I will back at least three goals to be the outcome of this one.

Score: Southampton 2-1 Newcastle United


Wolves v Brighton Pick: This is a pivotal game at the top and bottom of the Premier League as Wolves continue to chase down a surprise Champions League berth and Brighton look to reverse the slide into the bottom three.

There has been plenty of talk about Manchester United and Chelsea failing to take advantage of the slips each are making, but Wolves have quietly moved into their slipstream. The fixture list looks much kinder to Wolves than United over the next few weeks too and I do think this is a team capable of handling the pressures of Premier League and Europa League Football as they have all season.

A home game with Brighton has to be the kind of fixture Wolves have to take advantage of especially as Manchester United and Chelsea have much tougher looking games this weekend. However it is not always easy to trust Wolves to get the job done as you would imagine.

Newcastle United, Southampton and Burnley have all avoided losses here already this season and Brighton are a team who have been creating chances in recent games despite the 0-1 setback to Crystal Palace last weekend.

Brighton have the character that has seen them come from behind and draw with both West Ham United and Sheffield United in the last couple of away games played in the League, while they are also unbeaten in 5 against Wolves since October 2016.

That has to be respected, but Wolves look to be in good form and scoring plenty of goals. In what could be a surprisingly high-scoring affair, I do think Wolves can edge to a win in a game featuring at least two goals on the day.

Score: Wolves 2-0 Brighton


Burnley v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The live game on Saturday evening comes from Turf Moor and it is a huge test for Jose Mourinho and his Tottenham Hotspur team who have been in a miserable run of form.

They had lost 3 in a row in all competitions prior to the FA Cup Fifth Round tie against Norwich City and Tottenham Hotspur have found themselves dumped out of that on Penalties. Injuries are piling up to the point that Mourinho has suggested he is going to speak to the board and ask them which competition he wants to prioritise this week with a Premier League and Champions League fixture to be played.

After losing 0-1 at home to Leipzig it could be argued the Premier League has to be the priority for Tottenham Hotspur who can close the gap to 4th placed Chelsea by winning twenty-four hours before The Blues are due to kick off against Everton. That makes this game even more important for Spurs to try and regain some lost momentum, but Burnley are anything but a soft touch and especially if the focus is not at 100%.

Tottenham Hotspur will create chances against this Burnley team, but I have little doubt the home team are going to do the same against a team that has just 3 away clean sheets in 20 games played in all competitions (and one of those was at League Two Colchester United). However the other side of the coin shows that Tottenham Hotspur have only failed to score in 4 of those 20 away games and I do think they can cause problems for their hosts too.

Burnley have been in the better form and they have narrowed into the home favourites- winning 4 of 6 Premier League games will do that- and I do think they are the more likely winners on the day.

In saying that I do think the defensive issues have not been underlined as much as they should have been and it may take two goals to win the game. Backing at least three goals to be shared out at odds against is a very appealing price, and 4 of the last 6 between Burnley and Tottenham Hotspur have ended that way.

1-1 is perhaps the most dangerous scoreline, but I can see there being enough chances on the day to see the total goals hitting at least three goals.

Score: Burnley 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur


Chelsea v Everton Pick: The first of the live games to be played on Sunday comes from Stamford Bridge and it may be a big opportunity for Chelsea to pull away from at least Manchester United in the race for the Champions League places.

If Frank Lampard’s men can win, it will put pressure on Manchester United to respond in the derby against Manchester City later in the same day. However it is no guarantee with Chelsea being a little inconsistent as it is and now suffering with a number of key players looking set to miss out.

That will have given Everton a chance anyway, but this is a team in good form and who will take the game to Chelsea.

Under Carlo Ancelotti Everton have been creating chances and they showed that again in the 1-1 draw with Manchester United last weekend. They should have perhaps gotten more out of the 3-2 defeat at Arsenal last month and Everton will certainly believe all the pressure is on their hosts.

A team creating chances like Everton are will be dangerous- but add to that the inconsistency of Chelsea and I can’t help feel they are a touch short here. Everton did beat Chelsea at home already this season and a weaker team earned a result at Stamford Bridge last season.

Being able to back Everton with the start looks very appealing here and I will do that as I look for the underdog to perhaps spring a surprise.

Score: Chelsea 1-1 Everton


Manchester United v Manchester City Pick: In the next few weeks I do think Pep Guardiola will turn his full attention to the Cup competitions Manchester City are involved in as they are closing on a top four finish in the Premier League. At that point they can only await the judgement set out by the CAS in terms of whether they will be playing in the Champions League again next season.

For now there is still motivation to keep the wins being churned out in all competitions which will give the Manchester City squad some momentum. It is a deep squad and that means rotations are being made, but I expect the Manchester derby to earn the full attention of the visitors especially as Manchester United have won 2 of the 3 games between these clubs this season.

The exception did come at Old Trafford where Manchester City ran out 1-3 winners in the League Cup Semi Final First Leg, the foundation for progressing to the Final, and Manchester City have won 4 of the 5 games played at this ground under Guardiola.

However Manchester United are coming into this one in fine form too with a 9 game unbeaten run to protect. They have won 6 of those games including the last 2 at Old Trafford, although it does have to be pointed out that it has been a good portion of the fixture list which has been negotiated and facing their cross city rivals is a different test for them.

Manchester United have looked threatening going forward with the arrival of Bruno Fernandes a real boost, while they have also been pretty effective at the back. Harry Maguire's potential absence is a blow, but I do think Manchester United will be confident regardless and it could be a very good game.

I do think United can have some success playing against this Manchester City defence which has struggled, and they will be even more confident if Kevin De Bruyne is missing. The Belgian is a major creative force and Manchester City have been producing plenty of threatening play in the final third in their wins over Leicester City and Real Madrid away from home.

I'd love to be wrong, but I do think Manchester City will find the win in this one- as well as Manchester United have been playing, they are still a team that looks like they could be vulnerable if Manchester City are at their best. In all of the games played it is Manchester City who have dominated the chance count and I think that is likely to come through for them again.

Sergio Aguero has hit some positive form with goals in the last two games and he has always impressed at Old Trafford. My lean is that Manchester City will win and they can do that in a game featuring two or more goals.

Score: Manchester United 1-2 Manchester City


Leicester City v Aston Villa Pick: Recent form will have made Brendan Rodgers very glad for the long run of wins at the back end of the 2019 calendar year which has given Leicester City some room for error in the race for the Champions League spots.

That room is closing all the time though and Leicester City have to find a way to get back to winning ways after another disappointing Premier League setback at Norwich City last weekend.

At least being at home should give them a real chance to get back on the horse and Leicester City are also going to be benefit from having Jamie Vardy return. This should boost their chances and coupled with the poor run Aston Villa are on it is no surprise the home team are favoured to win this one.

Aston Villa beat Leicester City with a late goal in the League Cup Semi Final Second Leg, but they have lost 4 in a row in all competitions since then and have been conceding far too many goals. Back to back away losses at Bournemouth and Southampton and the kind of performances produced are a massive concern for Dean Smith who saw his team slip to 19th in the Premier League table after results last weekend.

The confidence of beating Leicester City in the League Cup will help, especially as those memories are quite fresh, but this is a tough test for Aston Villa.

Asking relegation threatened clubs to out-score opponents to win games is a hard way to make a living and I do think Leicester City will be too strong. Motivation won't be a problem and the chance to regain complete control of one of the Champions League places on offer in the Premier League should focus the mind too.

The amount of goals conceded by Aston Villa in recent weeks means I will back Leicester City to get back to winning ways in the League and cover the Asian Handicap in the process.

Score: Leicester City 3-1 Aston Villa

Fantasy Football GameWeek 29

*KLAXON* It's time for another DGW!!

Manchester City and Arsenal are both playing twice this week after seeing their Premier League game rescheduled for Wednesday.

Most are going to have at least one player involved, but I would not be surprised if hits have to be taken to bring in a second or third player.

Clouding things is the status of Kevin De Bruyne who was set as a doubt by Pep Guardiola and that has to be a concern for all owners. I am one of those, although it was not enough to make me think removing him from my team was the right play.

Pep Guardiola has taken over from Sir Alex Ferguson in being very difficult to second guess, the new 'Tombola Operator' if you will.

In saying that my decisions were made much easier when the news broke that Alisson had been ruled out- it meant I could bring in a City defender (goalkeeper in this case) which would allow me to have just enough funds to move Roberto Firmino into Sergio Aguero.

Taking a hit is not ideal, but I am comfortable enough doing it in this case even if it is hard to trust Pep Guardiola to resist making wholesale changes between games. However it is a risk worth taking with the way things are shaking up and of course Aguero will be given the Captaincy armband.

Next week I am going to look at potential plans for the chips I have remaining, and that includes holding onto my Triple Captain chip for another week.

My GW29 Team

Ederson- two games this week and needed a definite replacement for an injured Alisson.

Serge Aurier- not sure I think Tottenham Hotspur are a good thing when it comes to clean sheets, but Aurier does produce attacking returns.

Caglar Soyuncu- home game against Aston Villa might see Leicester City turn things around defensively.

Enda Stevens- looks to be passed fit for a Sheffield United home game.

Mohamed Salah- has a good record against Bournemouth.

Kevin De Bruyne- would have been the easy Captain choice if his overall fitness was better going into the weekend.

James Maddison- good fixtures and I do think Leicester City can bounce back.

James Ward-Prowse- home game against Newcastle United and midfielder on set pieces.

Troy Deeney- not an easy game for Watford but Troy Deeney scored and assisted last weekend and will be a threat.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin- a tough away game at Chelsea, but this is a player in the form of his life and can be a threat regardless of fixture.

Sergio Aguero (C)- his record speaks for itself against Manchester United and Arsenal and two goals in two games should mean Aguero is given a chance to play both fixtures.

Bench- Michael McGovern, Adama Traore (injury concern means he might not earn the start), Federico Fernandez, Harry Maguire

Midweek Football Picks 2017 (March 7-9)

The next two midweek dates have been kept aside for the completion of the Champions League Last 16 Round as well as the Europa League Last 16 Round with the draw for the Quarter Final of both competitions being made a week on Friday.

This is the time of the season where every mistake is magnified and the big games come thick and fast.

This week we also have a full round of Championship fixtures as the promotion battle heats up in that Division too, and I will have picks from the next three days of football on this thread.


Arsenal v Bayern Munich Pick: Aside from something incredible happening, this Champions League Second Leg tie looks like a dead rubber with Bayern Munich in a commanding position to move through to the Quarter Final. The 5-1 home win is going to be very difficult for Arsenal to overturn, especially when you consider they have lost 4 of their last 6 games in all competitions and have struggled when facing the best teams in the Champions League and in England.

In saying that, I do think Bayern Munich might be a little short to win the Second Leg despite Arsene Wenger suggesting his team will be set up to attack from the first minute. That might open up the counter attack to Bayern Munich who have some very good players with pace to expose an Arsenal team which presses forward, but I am not convinced Wenger is going to ask his team to go gung-ho.

The importance of a morale boosting performance means Arsenal can't afford to put another loss in the books with the chase for the top four in the Premier League heating up. Defeats to Chelsea, Bayern Munich and Liverpool have dented the confidence and the stories that Alexis Sanchez has fallen out with his manager and teammates has not helped Arsenal who look like they have taken a step backwards.

Looking for a positive result means Arsenal may not be pushing forward to get back into the Champions League Last 16 tie, but instead want to play this as a 'one off' game.

Arsenal have responded to really poor First Leg results at this Stage in the past and I have a feeling they can do that on Tuesday too. Last season they were beaten home and away by Barcelona in the Last 16, but previously they had won Second Legs against Milan, Bayern Munich and Monaco having lost the First Leg, while also earning a draw at Bayern Munich after a First Leg defeat.

This Bayern Munich team have also not been the best travellers in the Champions League with just 3 wins from their last 13 away games in the competition and have lost 3 of their last 4. In fact since beating Arsenal in February 2014, Bayern Munich have won none of their last 8 away Knock Out ties in the Champions League.

There is enough pace to make Bayern Munich dangerous on the counter attack if Arsenal are pushing men forward, but the lead in the First Leg might mean they are perhaps not as sharp as they could be. The poor away record in the Champions League can't be ignored either and Arsenal have lost just 1 of their last 6 home Champions League games here.

That includes a win over Bayern Munich and a draw with Paris Saint-Germain and I will back the home side to avoid defeat in the Second Leg.


Napoli v Real Madrid Pick: The edge has to be given to Real Madrid from the First Leg of this Last 16 tie, but Napoli will feel it is far from over having achieved the task of bringing back an away goal from the Spanish capital. It is still a big task for Napoli because they need to win by two clear goals to give themselves a chance of moving into the Champions League Quarter Final and it is hard to envision a situation where Real Madrid can't score in Naples.

However being at home gives Napoli a chance to put Real Madrid under pressure, especially when you consider they had failed to win 4 away Champions League games in a row before the win in Sporting Lisbon. On the other hand Real Madrid have lost just 1 of their last 9 away games in the Champions League, even if the sole defeat came by a 2-0 scoreline which would put Napoli through to the Quarter Final.

Unfortunately for Napoli they don't do a lot of clean sheets at home and there is every chance this is going to be a high-scoring game as the home team will have to push forward for goals in this one.

High-scoring games has been something of a theme for Napoli in the Champions League with 2 of their 3 home games in the Group Stage featuring at least four goals. In fact 8 of their last 11 home European games have ended with at least four goals shared out as Napoli have shown attacking potential with defensive vulnerabilities in those games.

3 of the last 7 Champions League away games for Real Madrid, including 2 of 3 in the Group Stage, have also featured at least four goals and I do think these teams can match their goal output from the First Leg. Picking a winner in this Second Leg is tough, but I wouldn't be surprised if Real Madrid are able to counter Napoli towards the end of the game to finish them off.

I am not going to be interested in that, but I am simply looking for Napoli and Real Madrid to combine for a high-scoring Second Leg and I will look for at least four goals to be shared out.


Barcelona v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: It would take something very special for Barcelona to turn around their 4-0 deficit from the First Leg because I simply cannot see a way they are able to prevent Paris Saint-Germain scoring here.

In saying that, I do think Barcelona will be much better than they were in Paris in the First Leg and I am expecting them to go out with some pride. They have beaten Paris Saint-Germain the last two times they have visited the Nou Camp and I think there will be times when the French Champions decide that they will sit back and try and protect what they have.

Barcelona have been scoring goals for fun in their last few games at the Nou Camp and they have really responded positively to Luis Enrique's decision to leave as manager. The team have clearly come together for a final push under Enrique and Barcelona look capable of winning a big trophy come the end of the season.

It is unlikely to be in the Champions League, but I am going to back Barcelona to win this Second Leg and perhaps get close to the margin of victory they needed. Ultimately I think a Paris Saint-Germain away goal will end the tie as a contest, but Barcelona will want to restore some pride and I think they win this by a couple of goals on the night.

With that in mind, I will back Barcelona to win the Second Leg on the Asian Handicap.


Borussia Dortmund v Benfica Pick: Anyone who saw the First Leg of the Champions League Last 16 tie between Benfica and Borussia Dortmund must be wondering how the Portuguese Champions have got away with a 1-0 win. They will have to be a lot better if they are going to contain Borussia Dortmund in front of a passionate home support, although Benfica have something to defend here.

An away goal for Benfica will certainly put them in a very strong position in the tie, but Borussia Dortmund will likely be a lot more clinical in front of goal than they were last month. The fact that Borussia Dortmund have scored 12 goals in their last 3 games, and 9 in their last 2 at home will give the home fans plenty of encouragement that they can turn this tie around.

Benfica did score at least twice in every away game in the Group Stage of the Champions League, but they were 4-0 down in Napoli in what turned out to be a 4-2 defeat. They also conceded 3 times to Besiktas so Benfica have to show a lot more defensively if they are going to prevent Borussia Dortmund picking up some momentum in this one.

Ultimately I think Borussia Dortmund are better than Benfica and should have won in Lisbon. You have to respect Benfica for reaching the Quarter Final of the Champions League last season and also scoring goals in away games in the Group Stage, but I think they might just get overrun by the home team in this one.

An early goal for Borussia Dortmund should set them on their way and I will back them to win this game and also move through to the Quarter Final in normal time by asking them to cover the Asian Handicap. Borussia Dortmund are odds on to Qualify for the Quarter Final, but odds against to win this game by two goals in normal time.

I just can't see Borussia Dortmund winning 1-0 in normal time with the goals they have in the side and I think they only go through to the Quarter Final with a win by two or more goals in normal time. With that in mind, I much prefer the odds against quote for Borussia Dortmund to win by at least two goals in normal time and I will back that to happen.


Manchester City v Stoke City Pick: I've been saying for a few weeks that Manchester City look like a team who are rounding into dangerous form at the right time of the season and they have continued producing big results to build the momentum. The next week is a big one for Manchester City who have this Premier League game, the one in hand over Chelsea, as well as a FA Cup Quarter Final and Champions League Last 16 Second Leg to come.

Win those three games and Manchester City will play Liverpool in the final game in March with a real chance to win three competitions this season.

They will need some help in the Premier League to peg back Chelsea, but Manchester City look like a team that could be a threat to win the FA Cup and Champions League. Pep Guardiola has found a system that makes them a really dangerous attacking team and I think Stoke City are going to find it tough to contain them here.

Mark Hughes has to set his side up to do more than contain as Stoke City were hammered at Tottenham Hotspur when they allowed the home team to dictate play ten days ago. In fact Stoke City have had a tough time visiting the teams in the top six all season aside from the 1-1 draw at Manchester United.

Other than that, Stoke City have conceded three goals at Arsenal and four at Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur which doesn't bode well when visiting Manchester City who have scored five goals in their last couple of games at The Etihad Stadium.

Manchester City also have hit four goals in their last couple of games against Stoke City including a 4-0 win here last season. This looks like a fixture that is not coming at a great time for Stoke City and I think Manchester City are going to have too much pace and attacking threat to be contained by a team missing Bruno Martins Indi this week.

I will back Manchester City to win this one by a comfortable margin and will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.


Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City Pick: There has been a real reaction to the arrival of Tony Mowbray at Ewood Park, although that might be discrediting Owen Coyle who had also led Blackburn Rovers to a couple of important wins here. Between the two managers, Blackburn Rovers have won 4 of their last 6 League games at home and also pushed Manchester United in the FA Cup and confidence has to be high from back to back League wins over the last week.

Blackburn Rovers could be catching Cardiff City at the right time if you believe that the players in the away squad might have just eased off a little after moving up the League table. Neil Warnock is not really the kind of manager who will allow that to happen, but the Cardiff City 2-1 loss at Queens Park Rangers on Saturday was a disappointing loss.

I fully expect a reaction to that and Cardiff City had impressed in wins at Leeds United and Derby County prior to that defeat. They also held a strong looking Fulham team at home so Blackburn Rovers will have to work for it if they want to make it 4 straight home League wins.

However I do think Blackburn Rovers are playing with a bit of confidence at the moment and will be tough to beat here. They were only beaten by an 89th minute goal from Leeds United in Blackburn Rovers' last 6 home games in the League and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to perhaps win this one.


Huddersfield Town v Aston Villa Pick: It is hard to know what kind of mindset the Huddersfield Town players have been left in after losing a big game to Newcastle United on Saturday. Mentally it was a blow for the players as they looked to close in on the top two places in the Championship, but Brighton have lost 2 in a row and Huddersfield Town are still close enough to have an assault on the second of the two automatic promotion spots in the League.

Picking up the players is not going to be easy for David Wagner, but being at home where Huddersfield Town have been so successful this season has to help them. The crowd will get behind their team and they are facing an Aston Villa team who have been really poor away from home for much of the season.

Of course Aston Villa have picked up some form which comes with 3 straight wins in the League, and they did snap a 6 game losing run away from home when winning in Yorkshire at Rotherham United on Saturday. The Yorkshire club they play on Tuesday are significantly stronger than Rotherham United though and the lack of Aston Villa goals away from home has to be a big concern that Steve Bruce will want to rectify in the summer.

At this time I do think Huddersfield Town can bounce back from the defeat on Saturday and earn a big win to get the promotion bid back on track. They have overachieved this season, but Wagner won't want the players to feel that way and they have won some big games at home before the loss to Newcastle United.

Wins over Brighton, Reading and Leeds United should mean the players are not overawed by the Aston Villa name coming to town. At odds against, I will back Huddersfield Town to win on Tuesday.


Nottingham Forest v Brentford Pick: Both Nottingham Forest and Brentford have earned some big points over the last seven days which has made sure they are not being sucked back into a relegation battle. For Brentford they are on the brink of being in a position of safety, but there is a lot more work to be done for Nottingham Forest.

The majority of that work is going to be done at The City Ground where Nottingham Forest have been strong for much of the season. The 3-0 win over Brighton was a huge result for them and they will feel they can get the better of Brentford despite the goals that the latter have been producing.

Those goals makes Brentford dangerous and they have scored in their last 6 away games in the Championship and in 4 of those games they have scored at least twice. Nottingham Forest may have had 3 clean sheets in their last 5 at The City Ground, but that has been the exception to the general rule here and the home team will likely need at least two goals to win this game.

The goals have certainly flowed the last two seasons when these teams have met at this ground and I can see both Nottingham Forest and Brentford scoring at least once in this one. Picking a winner is more difficult, even if I am leaning towards the home side, but I think backing at least three goals looks like it will be a safe option as both teams have been creating plenty of chances in recent games.


Sheffield Wednesday v Burton Albion Pick: Sheffield Wednesday and Burton Albion will be heading into this fixture in a desperate search for the three points on offer for differing reasons. While both would be satisfied with their current League position at the end of the season, both clubs will also be aware there is plenty of work to do over the last 11 League games for them to achieve their goals.

Out of the two it is clear that Burton Albion are overachieving by avoiding a place in the bottom three and all credit needs to be given to Nigel Clough for that. They have proven to be a stubborn team to beat in recent games and another point here would be welcomed to keep them ticking along.

That is going to be far from easy against a Sheffield Wednesday team who crushed Norwich City at home on Saturday and have won 8 of their last 10 games at Hillsborough. Sheffield Wednesday are trying to stay ahead of Fulham, who are their closet contenders in the Play Off race, although a consistent end to the season will see The Owls finishing higher than 6th in the table.

I do expect Sheffield Wednesday to have a little bit too much for Burton Albion on Tuesday, although they have to try and break down their visitors as early as possible. Consecutive away clean sheets will have given Burton Albion confidence, but they were beaten 4-1 at Brighton not that long ago and Sheffield Wednesday are considerably stronger at home than they have proven to be on their travels.

Sheffield Wednesday should be able to find a way to break through the Burton Albion defences and they can earn the three points in this one.


Reading v Newcastle United Pick: The last seven days might be looked back as the key time of the season for Newcastle United in their bid to earn promotion back to the Premier League and the players have responded to the big games they have faced. There was an element of fortune in the 1-2 win at Brighton last week, but the 1-3 win at Huddersfield Town was plenty impressive and Newcastle United have to be confident.

The games don't get any easier for The Magpies who travel to Reading before hosting Fulham in the coming days, but the results achieved has to make Newcastle United believe they can win here.

Reading have been very good at The Majedski Stadium all season and have won 4 of their last 5 games here which should mean they won't be afraid of hosting Newcastle United. They are in a strange position where a win might see Reading still get back into the automatic promotion push, but a defeat could see them under pressure from Fulham for a place in the top six.

They have been strong at home to think they can score against Newcastle United, but preventing the quality at the other end has proved tough for teams in recent weeks. Newcastle United have scored at least twice at Brighton, Huddersfield Town and Norwich City in consecutive away games and that just shows they are a team that are too good for this level.

I expect Reading to play a part in this one too and I am going to back goals for the third Newcastle United away game in a row. They have obliged the first two times and have shown they are capable of scoring plenty of goals, but will give Reading a couple of chances too.

At odds against, I will back there being at least three goals in this one.


APOEL v Anderlecht Pick: The oddsmakers are finding it difficult to separate APOEL and Anderlecht in the First Leg of this Last 16 Europa League tie and I do imagine it is going to be a tight game between these clubs.

Both will know it is a long shot for them to win the Europa League, but the chance to potentially play a Quarter Final against the likes of Manchester United, Roma or Lyon cannot be understated. That is the kind of occasion APOEL and Anderlecht don't get to play too often and will certainly inspire the players to produce their best over the next seven days.

I have to say I do edge towards APOEL in the First Leg with home advantage likely to be a big key in both Legs of the tie. APOEL have won all 4 home games in the Europa League and also won 2 in the Champions League Qualifiers, while Anderlecht have been a little more inconsistent away from home.

Anderlecht do have some positive results away from home with the loss at Zenit St Petersburg snapping their 5 game unbeaten run on their travels in European competition this season. Many teams would struggle when travelling to Zenit St Petersburg, but I do think APOEL's win over Athletic Bilbao here is very impressive.

Backing the home team on the Asian Handicap which would return the stake in case of a draw looks a decent way to get behind APOEL at a big price here. This will likely be a close First Leg, but APOEL can make being at home count and can take a narrow lead to Belgium next week.


Rostov v Manchester United Pick: The Europa League has taken on extra importance for Manchester United as they continue to find it difficult to break into the top four of the Premier League with inconsistent results at Old Trafford holding them back. Make no mistake about it, getting back into the Champions League is the only goal for Jose Mourinho this season and he won't care how Manchester United do that.

It does begin to feel like the Europa League might be the best avenue back into the top competition of European football for Manchester United. But those suggesting this is a good draw in the Last 16 against Rostov might be sorely mistaken in believing there is only going to be one winner in the tie.

Rostov have to be respected simply for the fact they have beaten Bayern Munich here this season in the Champions League, although the German giants are playing much better now than they were pre-Christmas. That is one of 3 wins for Rostov at home out of their 6 European games and only Atletico Madrid have left this part of Russia with a victory.

Over two Legs I do think Manchester United will be too good, but this is a tough away game for the side and I can't have them at odds on to win.

Instead I am looking for the First Leg to provide at least three goals despite the Rostov pitch not being in the greatest condition. Goals have flown at this ground all season in European competition as 5 of the 6 Rostov home games have ended with at least three goals shared out.

Rostov themselves have scored at least twice in every home game in Europe aside from the defeat to Atletico Madrid, and this is a good list for Rostov to have scored against when you note it is Anderlecht, Ajax, PSV Eindhoven, Bayern Munich and Sparta Prague.

It should also be noted that Rostov did not have a clean sheet in their home European games until they beat Sparta Prague in the Last 32 and half of their 6 home games have seen them concede at least twice.

Everything does point to goals with both teams likely to hit the net in this one and I do think the Second Leg at Old Trafford will be a live game. Whatever way you look at it, at least three goals being shared out by these teams at odds against looks a big price when you consider how Rostov games have developed even if Manchester United away games have not been free-scoring games.


Gent v Genk Pick: This is a big game for these two teams from Belgium as both would have felt this tie is the most winnable one for them in the Last 16 of the Europa League. Gent and Genk don't have too many opportunities to reach a Quarter Final of a major European competition and so this Last 16 tie has to have raised importance for both.

Initially finishing in the top six in Belgium and playing in the Championship Round would have been the motivation, but Genk are out of contention for those places. Gent, on the other hand, have a big game on Sunday that they have to win to guarantee their place in the top six and they did play a weakened team in the Last 32 against Tottenham Hotspur to ensure they finish high enough in the Belgian top flight.

I don't anticipate that will be the case in this First Leg though as Gent can fight on two fronts over the next two weeks and being at home in the First Leg is very important. Win the next two home games and Gent could be in line for a hugely successful season and I do think they can earn a lead in the First Leg.

Genk have lost some key players in January and I think their goal will be to stay in the tie in the First Leg. They have failed to score in their last 4 visits to Gent though and have already lost here once this season.

I believe the home team will win this one too and I will back Gent to earn a First Leg lead at just under odds against prices.


Olympiacos v Besiktas Pick: The layers have priced up Olympiacos as the favourite in this First Leg but it is Besiktas who come into the Last 16 tie as the favourites to progress to the Quarter Final of the Europa League.

I will admit that I was looking for a couple of ways to back Besiktas in the First Leg as I am convinced they can get a result in Greece. Olympiacos have a poor recent home record in European competition and they are also coming into this one having won just 1 of their last 4 games at home in all competitions.

The problem in backing Besiktas here is that they have been a little erratic away from home in Europe. They have won in Napoli and Hapoel Be'er Sheva, but Besiktas lost 6-0 in Dynamo Kiev which is a result that can be hard to ignore.

I did consider backing Besiktas with the 0.25 start on the Asian Handicap, but 5 of the last 8 Olympiacos home European games have ended in draws. With that in mind I am going to have a small interest in this First Leg ending in a draw which will put Besiktas in a commanding position in the tie.

Both teams should have their chances, but I can see them cancelling each other out in Greece and backing the draw looks the most likely result.


Schalke v Borussia Monchengladbach Pick: Once you reach the Last 16 of the Europa League, country protection is out of the window and that is why we have two German sides meeting at this Stage of the competition. Both Schalke and Borussia Monchengladbach may have been amongst the favourites to win the Europa League if they had not been drawn against one another.

The two League games between these teams were very entertaining in terms of goals scored including just last Saturday when Borussia Monchengladbach beat Schalke 4-2 at home. The reverse fixture had seen Schalke come away with a 4-0 win and having won 3 of their last 4 games at home against Borussia Monchengladbach will mean they should be confident they can take a lead into the Second Leg.

Recent form suggests otherwise though as Schalke have just hit a poor patch of results compared with Borussia Monchengladbach who have won 4 in a row in all competitions. Borussia Monchengladbach have been scoring plenty of goals in that time and they have also won their last 6 away games in all competitions which makes them dangerous.

However Schalke will recognise that the Borussia Monchengladbach defensive vulnerabilities have to be attacked and I can see both managers setting out their teams to get forward and score goals. I am anticipating both Legs to be very entertaining in terms of chances created and goals scored and so I am a little surprised the oddsmakers are offering prices close to odds against for three goals to be shared out.

Despite the Knock Out nature of this tie, I can't imagine either team will change their style too much and that should lead to both teams having their opportunities to score goals.

5 of the last 7 between Schalke and Borussia Monchengladbach have ended with at least three goals shared out including both this season. The last 2 in Schalke have also featured at least three goals shared out and I am going to back this First Leg to end up the same way.

MY PICKS: Arsenal + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet365 (2 Units)
Napoli-Real Madrid Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Barcelona - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.98 Bet365 (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.09 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Blackburn Rovers 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town @ 2.05 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nottingham Forest-Brentford Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sheffield Wednesday @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Reading-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
APOEL 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Rostov-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.38 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Gent @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Olympiacos-Besiktas Draw @ 3.30 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Schalke-Borussia Monchengladbach Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

March Update: 8-6-1, + 6.12 Units (30 Units Staked, + 20.40% Yield)

February Final: 31-50, - 29.34 Units (157 Units Staked, - 18.69% Yield)
January Final: 32-47-1, - 30.88 Units (164 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 243-272-9, - 57.45 Units (1029 Units Staked, - 5.58% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2015 (March 7-9)

There isn't much going on regarding the top of the English game with the FA Cup Sixth Round decimating the Premier League schedule and leaving just one game to play. Out of the four Quarter Final Cup games, the best game has been left to last on the Monday so it is a fairly quiet week all things considered.

All of the top teams in the Premier League won during the week meaning we are as we were in those positions, but the Aston Villa late win over West Brom might be a critical three points that can keep that team in the top flight. There are still plenty of twists and turns to come over the next few weeks, but it does put pressure on Queens Park Rangers to earn something from the home game with Tottenham Hotspur and avoid the bottom three being cut off already.

The three teams that were promoted last season occupy the bottom three places, but I still think Leicester City have the best chance of getting out of trouble with the fixtures they have remaining. Of course that means winning games they are supposed to and it will all depend on whether Nigel Pearson can motivate his players and give them the belief that they are good enough to stay in the Premier League.


Queens Park Rangers v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This is a big game for both Queens Park Rangers and Tottenham Hotspur if they are to achieve their individual goals for the season and the three points should be precious enough to see both Chris Ramsey and Mauricio Pochettino set up their sides to earn those.

It should be an exciting game because Tottenham Hotspur have shown enough going forward to make them a threat to score goals, but have not been very good defensively. The two full-backs are both liabilities when it comes to defending, and that is me being kind about Kyle Walker and Danny Rose, and I do think Queens Park Rangers will create chances.

Charlie Austin has shown he can score goals at this level, but QPR have also been very vulnerable defensively and it would be a real surprise to me if this is a low-scoring game to be perfectly honest.

The feeling is that this will be a 2-1 scoreline either way, but I think Tottenham Hotspur are too short at odds against to trust considering they have only won 1 of their last 6 away games in all competitions. 

The layers have the same expectation for goals, but I can't argue against those and will back there being at least three goals shared by these teams on Saturday.


Bradford City v Reading Pick: This is the opening FA Cup tie of Sixth Round weekend as Bradford City look to earn another surprise win in this competition this season. They have beaten teams from higher Divisions in each of their last three ties and Bradford City's 2-4 win at Stamford Bridge will live long in the memory of the fans that were lucky enough to attend that afternoon.

Phil Parkinson has to think that Bradford City won't have a better chance to reach the Semi Final at Wembley Stadium than this weekend with a home draw against the lowest team left in the competition, aside from themselves of course, and having the home draw.

That is likely the exact way Reading are feeling except not playing at home, but that might also be a benefit for the Royals who have saved their best performances for away from the Majedski Stadium. They have won all three FA Cup ties this season away from home and Reading have only lost 1 of their last 7 away games so may feel they can do enough to get something from Valley Parade and a move into the Semi Final themselves.

The pitch at Valley Parade hasn't been in the best condition so this could be tough for either team to really play their football and I do imagine a tight game developing between them. The prize at the end of ninety minutes is going to create tension of it's own and both Bradford City and Reading will be looking at their home/away forms respectively and feel they can win this game.

It might only take a goal to separate the teams at the end of this one, but there is every chance that Bradford and Reading have to do it again in Berkshire in two weeks time. I'll back this tie to end up being too tight and tense to find a winner and a replay to be the outcome in ten days time.


Aston Villa v West Brom Pick: During the week these two teams came up against one another in the Premier League and I felt it was going to be a tight, tense encounter that might not produce a lot of goals. However, Aston Villa took the game to West Brom and perhaps should have been out of sight by half time, but showed their own vulnerabilities by allowing the Baggies back into the game.

It was a remarkable piece of poor goalkeeping from Ben Foster that cost West Brom from getting anything from that game and now the same two teams meet in the FA Cup Sixth Round with a place at Wembley Stadium on the line.

Out of the two managers, you have to think that Tim Sherwood is likely to stick with a more consistent line up compared with Tony Pulis who may not want to risk players that have been carrying knocks. However, West Brom are in a decent position in the Premier League and fans won't be happy if their manager decides to give up a place in the FA Cup Semi Final without a fight and I do think both teams will be able to play with more freedom than in the Premier League game.

Neither team will really want a replay to congest their Premier League schedule and I think there was enough going forward in the League game to suggest the layers are taking a chance with there being goals in this one. The last 5 Aston Villa games at Villa Park in all competitions have provided at least three goals in them, while 3 of the last 4 West Brom away games have done the same.

I would note that 4 of the last 5 Aston Villa games have seen a 90th minute goal to take it over the two goal mark so the layers are perhaps thinking that kind of luck has to change. However, Aston Villa created enough chances in the game during the week to think they can score in this one, while their own defensive problems mean West Brom will have a chance to score goals themselves.

With the freedom of the Cup rather than priceless points on the line, I think the teams will give this game more of a go and I will back there being at least three goals at a big price.


Liverpool v Blackburn Rovers Pick: I have been warily watching Liverpool from a distance over the last couple of months as a Manchester United fan as each dropped points by my team was seeing Liverpool close in on the top four. They are now the biggest threat to Manchester United making their way into the Champions League places and that form should carry them through to the FA Cup Semi Final with this home tie against Blackburn Rovers to come.

You do have to credit Blackburn Rovers from coming from a goal down to beat Swansea and Stoke City in the previous two Rounds, but they had the benefit of seeing both of those teams reduced to ten men. Swansea lost a player at 0-0, while Stoke City lost a player at 1-1 and I do think something like that will need to happen for Blackburn Rovers to avoid a comfortable loss here.

There is pace in the Blackburn forward line which will give Liverpool some problems, but Jordan Henderson, Raheem Sterling, Philippe Coutinho, Adam Lallana and Daniel Sturridge have all been playing very well and should hurt Blackburn. There is pace, ingenuity and finishing ability amongst those forward players for Liverpool and they have been creating plenty of chances to score goals.

It took an inspired Tom Heaton performance to prevent Burnley taking a real hammering on Wednesday and Blackburn Rovers may be reliant on Jason Steele/Simon Eastwood to prevent them taking that beating instead.

Blackburn Rovers may have some joy going forward, but I fear they are going to be on the defensive for much of this game and an early Liverpool game may see the home team ease through to the Semi Final. With plenty of time to wait before being back in action again, Brendan Rodgers won't want a replay so I expect a strong Liverpool team to be put out and the home team to come through with a win by at least two goals.


Manchester United v Arsenal Pick: This is easily the tie of the Round and both Manchester United and Arsenal will know who their likely Semi Final opponent is before the game kicks off on Monday evening. Both teams have similar aims remaining for the season with the ambition of picking up the FA Cup in May and also securing a top four berth in the Champions League.

The winner of the tie will certainly feel they can go all the way in this competition, but Arsenal look in a stronger position to finish in the top four of the Premier League than Manchester United at this current stage. Their second League meeting in May could have a huge factor in that and this tie could produce a psychological edge for the remainder of the season.

It might be a really big game for Manchester United to prove they can beat the best teams in the Premier League knowing they play Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool in the remainder of the month. Louis Van Gaal's tactics have begun to be criticised for disciplining the players to the extent that their creative freedom is being strangled, but Manchester United have been much more effective at home and that edge might prove to be critical in this one.

Manchester United have won a lot of games at Old Trafford last season and have gotten the better of Arsenal in their games in this Stadium with 9 wins from the last 10 games. That includes beating Arsenal 4-0 and 2-0 in FA Cup ties in recent seasons, although Arsene Wenger can be criticised for making too many changes to his Arsenal team in those games.

I can't imagine that being the case on Monday, although I do think Arsenal have looked a little nervous in their two wins since losing to Monaco. The first goal could be critical in this one and it might mean a nervy first half, but neither side will really want to add extra games to their remaining schedules so I do think both will look to get forward and score goals.

Both teams have match winners in their line up, but both defences seem to be just a moment away from panicking badly if they make one or two mistakes. I do think there will be goals in the game on Monday, but Manchester United look a very big price considering their successes against Arsenal. Even the smash n grab at the Emirates Stadium shows the players still believe they can beat the Gunners and Manchester United have been very good at Old Trafford.

Manchester United are a lot shorter to beat Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League the week after this game and I don't think Arsenal are that much better that the price for the home win is as big as we see.

MY PICK: Queens Park Rangers-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Bradford City-Reading Draw @ 3.40 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Aston Villa-West Brom Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.55 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 2.50 Bet Fred (2 Units)

March Update: 3-4, + 1.70 Units (10 Units Staked, + 17% Yield)

February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 100-144-4, - 26.23 Units (421 Units Staked, - 6.23% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)