Tennis Picks 2022 (April 7th)

For the second day in a row, a Pick moved into a strong position before seemingly capitulating.

It is frustrating, but part and parcel of the clay court season- my hope is that I will soon be on the right side of the small margins that are going against me right now.

Roberto Carballes Baena - 3.5 games v Joao Sousa: Both of these players were deserving winners in their First Round matches at the ATP Marrakech tournament, but it is Roberto Carballes Baena who has enjoyed much more consistent success on the clay courts.

Unlike Joao Sousa, this is not the first tournament that Roberto Carballes Baena has played on the red dirt and he has produced plenty of positive results on the clay courts so far this season. Ten wins already have come alongside six defeats, but the Spaniard has played pretty consistently and the numbers are similar to the ones that were produced in 2021.

There is room for improvement as far as the return of serve is concerned, but Roberto Carballes Baena has been slightly stronger behind serve.

He is facing a Joao Sousa coming in off a solid win over Federico Delbonis, but it has been a surprising struggle for this player on the clay courts in recent years. Joao Sousa ended up with a losing record in 2019, 2020 and 2021 on the red dirt, but his win in the First Round here in Marrakech may give Sousa a boost in confidence.

Joao Sousa has mainly had issues on the clay courts because of a vulnerable serve and that has put pressure on his return. He handled that in the First Round despite giving up 10 break point opportunities to Federico Delbonis, and Joao Sousa was able to produce 14 of his own, but in recent years the return has been a problem for the Portuguese player.

The head to head has seen Roberto Carballes Baena win the last three between these players and all of those have come on the clay courts. The last of those was played in 2021 and in those matches it cannot be ignored the big edge that the Spaniard has had on serve.

Roberto Carballes Baena has held 79% of his service games played against Joao Sousa in the last three clay court matches between these players, while Sousa is at a 46% mark. The early clay court tournaments can throw up some surprises, but I think Roberto Carballes Baena is very comfortable on the surface and he should be able to back up his First Round victory with another strong performance on his way through to the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Roberto Carballes Baena - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Botic Van De Zandschlup - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Steve Johnson-John Isner Over 25.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Amanda Anisimova @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Madison Keys @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-4, - 6.34 Units (10 Units Staked, - 63.40% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2019 (April 5-8)

I had a very strong Fantasy Football GW32 with 110 points produced through the Double GameWeek, but that means I am going to head into GW33 with slightly fewer than the eleven players you can start in any given week.

With just six Premier League games to be played this weekend I think there will be a number of people in a similar boat, although every point matters at this stage of the season. I would even suggest playing an additional transfer even for the cost of 4 points if you need to, but pick a player that is guaranteed to start as that should mean at least 2 of those points are returned.

I very rarely choose a goalkeeper or defender to lose points on because of their limited chances of a return, but a midfielder and striker can make up for those 'hits' taken very quickly.


The players I identified last week in my Fantasy portion of the thread turned out to be very good selections so I am hoping some readers would have benefited. The outstanding contributions in the Double GameWeek came from the top three Defenders I had selected, while all three higher priced strikers all scored too.

The Defenders were the best on the GW though with Cesar Azpilicueta scoring and keeping a clean sheet, Aymeric Laporte being involved in both clean sheets and adding an assist and Luke Shaw adding an assist even though the late Watford goal at Old Trafford was a blow in taking away the clean sheet.

With a smaller amount of Premier League games to be played this weekend I am going to have fewer players selected, but you can read my thoughts on the Weekend games from the Premier League and FA Cup and the Fantasy thoughts below.


Southampton v Liverpool Pick: The opening Premier League game of the weekend comes on Friday night from St Mary's as both Southampton and Liverpool chase the points they need to fulfil different ambitions.

The home team will be looking for one more win to really begin to feel they have enough points to avoid relegation. The 0-1 win at Brighton last weekend was a big result for Southampton who have won 3 of their last 4 Premier League games and their last 2 at St Mary's against Fulham and Tottenham Hotspur.

While the win over Spurs was a big result, Southampton know they could have been in a big hole by half time as they were being dominated by the top four club. That is a concern when they get ready to take on a Liverpool team who have won 4 in a row in all competitions and seem to have a little bit of fortune on their side as late goals have gone their way.

Liverpool have a solid away record in the Premier League and they are a team who have looked secure defensively, but I expect that to be tested by Southampton who will feel they have nothing to lose here. Any points earned against the top six has to be considered a bonus for Southampton in their fight to avoid the drop, but they have been better at home under Ralph Hasenhuttl and this is a team that can cause problems for the bigger clubs at St Mary's.

Both North London clubs have been beaten here since Hasenhuttl took over as manager of Southampton, while The Saints have also scored against Manchester United in a draw and Manchester City in a defeat at home. I do think they can do the same against a Liverpool team who have not had a clean sheet in 4 games and that includes conceding against Burnley and Fulham who are both below Southampton in the Premier League table.

The Southampton defensive issues makes it very difficult to imagine Liverpool not scoring here themselves so the selection is picking both teams to score at odds against.

Fantasy Star: Sadio Mane- you have to stick with the former Southampton player who has been in hot form.

Alternative: Roberto Firmino- I think Southampton could cause problems for Liverpool, but the latter are playing with a feeling of destiny behind them and someone popping up with a winner would not be a surprise.


Bournemouth v Burnley Pick: This is an interesting fixture with Bournemouth understandably the favourite, but they have a poor recent record against Burnley and that has to be factored into any selection that is made.

I did consider backing Bournemouth on the Asian Handicap which would return half the stakes in the case of a draw, but their recent record has been underwhelming. It would have looked a lot better if they had converted a late penalty to beat Wolves and then held on through injury time in their draw with Newcastle United, but those setbacks and overall recent form has to be a concern.

That is not to say that Burnley have been in great form having had 4 straight League losses prior to the international break, but the 2-0 win over Wolves last weekend at Turf Moor has to be a huge confidence boost. Burnley will make the long trip down to the south coast with very little to lose as they look to move even clearer of the bottom three, while their 3 straight wins over Bournemouth have to give them further belief.

What has been clear in recent games between these clubs is that they match up well and usually produce plenty of goals when they face one another. The last 5 have all ended with at least three goals shared out and I do think Bournemouth and Burnley will be chasing goals to protect what have been vulnerable defences.

Bournemouth have conceded in 3 home games in a row, while Burnley have scored at least once in 3 of their last 4 away Premier League games. The home team have only failed to score in 1 of their last 7 here in all competitions, and Burnley have not had a clean sheet in their last 5 away games.

With recent history and the recent performances of both teams I would not be surprised to see a 2-1 scoreline either way and I am going to recommend looking at three or more goals to be shared out on the day.

Fantasy Star: Callum Wilson- is back leading the line for Bournemouth who should have chances against a Burnley defence that has not looked as strong as previous years.

Alternative: Dwight McNeil- I identified him last week and he came up with an assist and a goal. Key player for Burnley in their fight against relegation.


Huddersfield Town v Leicester City Pick: Relegation has looked inevitable for a number of weeks now at Huddersfield Town, but big decisions look like they will need to be made. There have been reports of the players not being happy under new manager Jan Siewert so the Huddersfield Town board have to decide whether they want to bring someone else in to take the club forward on their return to the Championship.

It is going to be a big season for Huddersfield Town who won't want to spend too long out of the top flight as the return becomes that much more difficult. The Championship is loaded with some quality teams though and earning an immediate return to the top flight is going to be a real challenge for The Terriers.

The fans will begin to worry about that when they complete their Premier League fixture list and Huddersfield Town can play without some pressure now relegation is confirmed. That could free the players up, but they are short of the quality of those in the top flight and I think Leicester City will have too much for them.

Brendan Rodgers has made an immediate impact with the Leicester City players who had been struggling under Claude Puel and the attacking intent of the manager is something the players will enjoy. There is going to be work to mould the squad like Rodgers wants in the summer, but for now they are chasing the top seven finish which may see them playing in the Europa League next season.

3 wins in a row under Rodgers means Leicester City are playing with belief and they have been scoring plenty of goals in that run. They should have enough to see off Huddersfield Town here who have not been able to keep clean sheets and struggling to avoid defeats at the John Smith's Stadium and I will back the visitors to win a game featuring two or more goals.

Fantasy Star: Jamie Vardy- amongst the goals since Claude Puel was sacked and could keep his run going.

Alternative: James Maddison- I am expecting Leicester City to be the stronger team and the English midfielder does play in advanced positions on the pitch.


Newcastle United v Crystal Palace Pick: Both Newcastle United and Crystal Palace look to have enough to steer clear of the bottom three in the Premier League, but both Rafael Benitez and Roy Hodgson will be reminding their players that a win on Saturday will ease any remaining doubts about their ability to survive in the top flight.

There is almost nothing to lose for either team in this fixture with a 7 and 8 point lead over Cardiff City in the bottom three and I think that could see an attacking game develop.

Newcastle United have found a groove at home where they have scored at least twice in 5 successive League games and won each of those. That might be an issue for a Crystal Palace team who have not been defending as well as they would have liked and have conceded at least twice in losing 3 of 4 overall.

That includes losing 2-1 at Watford and 2-0 at Tottenham Hotspur, but the latter is the first away game since late November in which Crystal Palace have failed to score. I do think they can create problems for Newcastle United with the pace and quality they have in the final third and I would not be surprised at all if we see both teams find the net in this one.

While neither will want to lose, I do think the three points will encourage the players to take chances too and I think that is going to produce a decent game of football. With both teams having some defensive problems, I can see this fixture going against the recent trend when these two teams face one another and I will recommend looking for at least three goals to be shared out at odds against.

Fantasy Star: Solomon Rondon- has scored in three of the last four games at St James' Park.

Alternative: Wilfried Zaha- the main threat for Crystal Palace who will be looking to counter attack in this fixture.


Everton v Arsenal Pick: There are some questions for both Everton and Arsenal to answer when they face each other in front of the television cameras on Sunday afternoon.

Marco Silva has been backed by the Everton board and his players seem to be playing hard for him having secured solid wins over Chelsea and West Ham United either side of the international break. The win over Chelsea ended a poor run at home, but Everton also held Liverpool in the Merseyside derby and I think they can cause problems for Arsenal.

One of the main reasons for that is Arsenal have not been as comfortable away from the Emirates Stadium and it is going to be the poorer away form that prevents them making the top four. The Gunners have a chance to make a statement by winning at Goodison Park and that will be a confidence boost for a team who are playing five of their remaining seven League games away from home.

Arsenal do have a decent record against Everton which is another reason they could be as short as they are to win this game. There is no doubt they are a very short price, but Arsenal looked very strong in their 1-1 draw against Tottenham Hotspur at the start of March and I think they have the goals to win this game if at their best.

Goals have been a real feature of Everton versus Arsenal fixtures in recent years and I think this one is going to follow suit. The home team will look to get forward and Arsenal look to be rounding into strong form and I think they can combine to produce at least three goals on Sunday afternoon.

Fantasy Star: Alexandre Lacazette- leading the line for Arsenal more often than not and seemingly involved in plenty of their goals.

Alternative: Gylfi Sigurdsson- I seem to pick him in every Everton game as their main threat and positive returns in three of the last five fixtures suggests that remains the case. Key player if the home team are going to upset Arsenal.


Chelsea v West Ham United Pick: It can be something of an irritation for those clubs playing in the Europa League that they are asked to play on a Monday night ahead of a Thursday European commitment, but Chelsea have to deal with the schedule as it comes.

At this moment they have not prioritised a top four finish over the Europa League or vice versa as they chase a spot in the Champions League and so I do think a strong home team is selected.

They could be facing West Ham United at the right time as the team have perhaps just taken their foot off the pedal with the season coming to a conclusion. A top ten finish would be ideal for the club, but the players don't always think the same way with a number of them considering their future with the club in the summer.

West Ham United could be missing some key players for this trip across London too and they have not been at their best defensively in recent games. Add in the fact that The Hammers have been beaten in 6 of their last 7 away games in all competitions and I think it is going to be very difficult for them to get a result at Stamford Bridge this Monday.

The home team have been in very good form in front of their own fans too and I think they are playing with plenty of confidence even if Chelsea have not been blowing teams away. Maurizio Sarri's tactics have yet to really take hold with the players, but I think Chelsea will dominate the ball and they will likely have too much for a West Ham United team who are perhaps lacking a bit of focus at the moment.

You can't ignore the results West Ham United have had in recent visits to Stamford Bridge with 3 draws from their last 5 trips here, but I think Chelsea will have enough to win by a two goal margin on the day.

Fantasy Star: Eden Hazard- a goal and an assist in Chelsea's win over Brighton, everything goes through Eden Hazard.

Alternative: Olivier Giroud- got the nod ahead of Gonzalo Higuain on Wednesday and scored the opener which may mean another start for the Frenchman.


Manchester City v Brighton Pick: The first FA Cup Semi Final is played between Manchester City and Brighton and the Premier League leaders are a clear favourite to reach the Final that is played next month.

On current form it is very difficult to see anything other than a Manchester City win, but the key question is whether this is going to be a comfortable victory or one where Brighton can make things very difficult and try and earn the upset.

Chris Hughton's game plan has to be frustrate Manchester City for long periods and try and hurt them on the counter attack. As long as Brighton have a chance in the final 20 minutes I think the manager will be very happy, but recent form has been a worry and I do believe it will be very difficult to contain Pep Guardiola's men.

Manchester City have been a little wasteful in front of goal in their last couple of League games although they have comfortably beaten both Fulham and Cardiff City. They could have won both fixtures by wide margins if they had produced better finishing and I do think there will be spaces for them to exploit if they get their noses in front and just show a touch more composure in front of goal.

Brighton are rarely beaten easily, but they looked short of confidence in going down 3-0 at Chelsea during the week. The focus may already be on big League games coming up next weekend as Brighton fight to avoid a relegation to the Championship and I think Manchester City can keep their positive momentum going.

Most markets have been priced down for Manchester City as the layers take no chances with a team chasing an unprecedented Quadruple, but I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap here even if they have fallen short twice in the last week.


Watford v Wolves Pick: This may not be a FA Cup Semi Final that jumps off the page, but the performances of both Watford and Wolves throughout this season suggests it is going to be a decent game of football for the viewers.

Both teams have been able to play good, attacking football that has impressed the neutrals and I think both Watford and Wolves will enjoy playing on the big Wembley pitch. Wolves already showed that when crushing Tottenham Hotspur 1-3 here in the Premier League, but Watford also were leading against Spurs in an eventual 2-1 loss and I think the football that both managers expect their teams to play makes this an intriguing Semi Final.

Watford look a very big price as the underdog considering they deservedly beat Wolves at Molineux earlier this season, but Wolves have had the superior Cup run. That actually doesn't mean anything ahead of the Semi Final and I would be concerned in backing Wolves considering they have not won any of their last 4 away from their own Stadium.

Some will point to Watford losing their last 3 away from Vicarage Road, but those have come at Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United. Compare that to the Wolves run of away games without a victory being at Bournemouth, Huddersfield Town, Chelsea and Burnley and the fact that they have lost half of those fixtures and I was close to suggesting backing Watford to avoid a loss in normal time by backing them as the underdog on the Asian Handicap.

Instead I am going to look for the two teams to combine for at least three goals which is not what the layers are expecting judging by the odds against quotes. Wolves don't score a lot of goals away from Molineux, but they did score three at this Stadium against Tottenham Hotspur and I think their style will be suited to the big surroundings.

Watford have been scoring and conceding goals regularly in recent weeks and I would not be surprised if both teams get on the scoreboard in this one. The nature of the Cup does lead to spaces potentially opening up if a team is chasing the fixture and I will look for three or more goals to be shared out between these teams who are both also chasing a 7th place finish in the Premier League.

Fantasy Football

Only six of the scheduled ten Premier League fixtures are being played in GW33 but that doesn't mean there are not options for people playing the Fantasy game. There may not be as many players identified in this part of the Weekend Football thread as usual, but you can see those I think can be the difference makers in this GW below.

Goalkeeper 4.8 Million and Above

Kepa (Chelsea- 5.4 Million): A home game with a West Ham United team that may already have turned their attention to the summer does offer a real chance of a clean sheet.

Kasper Schmeichel (Leicester City- 5 Million): In recent games Leicester City have struggled for clean sheets, but they earned one last week and a trip to Huddersfield Town does offer an opportunity for another.

Goalkeeper 4.7 Million and Below

Angus Gunn (Southampton- 4.3 Million): Is going to need to be a big influence if Southampton are going to derail the Liverpool title run. Hard to see a clean sheet and in all honesty I think it's going to be tough for a real positive return from this position outside of the bigger investments.

Defender 5.1 Million and Above

Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool- 5.5 Million): A lot cheaper than both Andrew Robertson and Virgil Van Dijk and retains the same kind of attacking threat as those two pose.

Emerson (Chelsea- 5.2 Million): Marcos Alonso has not been in the best form and struggling with an injury. It could mean a run in the team for Emerson who has an attacking threat to his game too.

Ben Chilwell (Leicester City- 5.1 Million): Another defender with an attacking edge and one who could add a clean sheet with the trip to Huddersfield Town to come this weekend.

Defender 5 Million and Below

Jonny Evans (Leicester City- 4.8 Million): A cheaper way into the Leicester City defence although without the same threat as Chilwell.

Florian Lejeune (Newcastle United- 4.4 Million): Been much better at home and Newcastle United have had a couple of clean sheets here in the last few games.

Midfielder 7.1 Million and Above

Eden Hazard (Chelsea- 11.1 Million): At this stage Chelsea are not prioritising the Europa League over the Premier League top four race and everything good for them comes through Eden Hazard.

Sadio Mane (Liverpool- 10.1 Million): The price jump is down to the form Sadio Mane has been in, cheaper option than Mohamed Salah and player in form.

Mesut Ozil (Arsenal- 7.9 Million): Not a bad price for a player who has been in good form and back in the manager's plans. Problem is Arsenal have been poor away from home and Ozil can underline their lethargy on their travels.

Midfielder 7 Million and Below

James Maddison (Leicester City- 6.8 Million): A trip to Huddersfield Town and James Maddison has produced decent returns in three of the five games played since Claude Puel was sacked.

Callum Hudson-Odoi (Chelsea- 4.2 Million): Maurizio Sarri has indicated he will keep the same line up that beat Brighton and Callum Hudson-Odoi had a strong showing that day.

Forward 6.4 Million and Above

Roberto Firmino (Liverpool- 9.3 Million): Scored last week and another alternative to the pricey Mohamed Salah to get involved in the Liverpool attack.

Jamie Vardy (Leicester City- 9.1 Million): He has been a popular pick for me in this section, but the goals being scored makes the England player hard to ignore.

Olivier Giroud (Chelsea- 7.7 Million): Started up front for Chelsea and scored in the win over Brighton. With hints the same team start against West Ham United, Olivier Giroud could be a relatively cheap attacking option.

Forward 6.3 Million and Below

Solomon Rondon (Newcastle United- 5.9 Million): Has scored in three of the last four games at St James' Park.

Ashley Barnes (Burnley- 5.7 Million): Should have chances at Bournemouth and scored twice against them earlier this season.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Everton- 5.4 Million): Has scored in two of the last five games for Everton and playing a vulnerable Arsenal defence this weekend.

MY PICKS: Southampton-Liverpool Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 Bet365
Bournemouth-Burnley Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor
Leicester City to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.15 Bet Fred
Newcastle United-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Ladbrokes
Everton-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet365
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet365
Watford-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Bet Victor

Boxing Picks 2018- Erislandy Lara vs Jarrett Hurd (April 7th)

It has been one week since Anthony Joshua added the WBO Heavyweight Title to the WBA and IBF Titles he held already, but the big question for most is what is next for the British superstar.

There has been a lot of talk about Deontay Wilder, but I remain unconvinced that will be the next fight with both Wilder and Joshua potentially signing a deal to have an interim fight each before meeting for all the belts at the end of the year.

Eddie Hearn would have loved to take Joshua over to the United States for his debut on those shores before the Wilder fight, but Joshua himself poured some cold water on that and I think Jarrell Miller has stepped back as the potential next opponent.

Instead it feels like Alexander Povetkin is next after the WBA called their mandatory and the Russian impressed on the undercard last week with a highlight reel KO of David Price. That fight won't be a hard one to make and I can see Joshua vs Povetkin happening in a big Stadium in the United Kingdom in August before a potential clash with Wilder or the long wanted US debut at the end of the year.

For Wilder it would open the door for a defence against Dominic Breazeale, while Dillian Whyte could have his eliminator against Kubrat Pulev which would make him the mandatory for the IBF Title held by Joshua.

Then we have the winner of the David Haye vs Tony Bellew rematch to add to the mix and let's not forget about Tyson Fury who is rumoured to make his return to the ring in June.


Joseph Parker really did endear himself to the UK crowd and media and despite his loss last week I think there is plenty of scope to come again. He wasn't helped by the overzealous refereeing against Joshua, but there is clearly some room for improvement for Parker if he wants to get into a position to have another crack at the Brit.

Parker will likely try and make a fanbase in the UK in the months and years ahead and that seemed clear by suggestions that he could return on the next Joshua bill on the undercard as he looks to rebuild. That would not be a bad business decision for Parker who will have to travel a tough road back to relevance in a Division which is perhaps booming as much as it has in a generation.


On Saturday the Boxing world moves on to another Unification with this one coming in the Light-Middleweight Division which has come alive over the last year. We also have James DeGale on the undercard as he tries to reclaim the IBF Title he lost at Super-Middleweight in a stunning upset back in December and it should be an intriguing night of Boxing for fans at the beginning of another decent month.

Caleb Truax vs James DeGale

It was the shoulder, it was coming back too early, but the excuses will run out for James DeGale if he is not able to reclaim the IBF Super-Middleweight Title from Caleb Truax who was seen as nothing more than a tune up back in December.

DeGale's threats of retirement if he loses have not been as forceful in recent days as they were a couple of weeks ago, but I do wonder where he will go if he is unable to beat what was a fringe contender before the upset in London in December.

Let's get that straight right away- Truax is not one of the elite performers in a deep Super-Middleweight Division.

The win over DeGale boosted his profile, but this is not a fighter I believe will be a long time Title holder barring some very dubious match-making after this rematch.

Truax has been stopped at Middleweight by Daniel Jacobs and it is perhaps not a huge surprise that he is still considered a pretty big underdog in this rematch despite the manner of his win in the first fight.

Perhaps people are believing the DeGale side of the story about being far from 100%, but I won't deny that I have never been a big DeGale fan. Even in some of his biggest wins he has been fortunate to get away with coasting and someone like Truax is not going to allow DeGale to take off many minutes let alone Rounds in this one.

Last year he was beaten up badly twice which is also going to take a toll on the body and the mind and I am not sure DeGale has enough to keep the Champion off him for long enough to win this fight.

There will still be a chance for DeGale to earn a couple of big paydays in his career even in a defeat, but I do think his stamina issues will show up again and I can see Truax outworking DeGale for the victory. That will lead to calls for retirement for DeGale, which would be a shame when you think of the big domestic battles that could be in front of him in this Division.

I do think Truax is being under-rated again and that is motivation enough for him to outwork DeGale for long enough to win this fight and he is worth a small interest to do that.

Erislandy Lara vs Jarrett Hurd

This may not be a fight I could stay up for in the early hours of Sunday morning in the United Kingdom because Erislandy Lara fights can be a tough watch.

However his younger opponent Jarrett Hurd is the kind of pressure fighter that won't take a backwards step in this one and that could at least make things interesting.

The question that will be answered in this one is whether Lara is still at the peak of his powers or whether the Hurd camp are catching him at the right time.

Ultimately I still think Lara has something in the tank and I think his superior boxing skills will come to the fore in this one, even if the rest of the Division would love to see Hurd knock him off and then freeze Lara out.

A controversial Decision has been something that Lara has been on the wrong end of twice before in his career so there could be some more dubious scoring which costs him here. There is no doubt that Lara is not everyone's cup of tea so anything close is likely to go against him, but I think he will show the cleaner boxing in this one and can pick off Hurd as the aggressive American keeps pressing forward.

Lara should have more left than Austin Trout who was worn down by Hurd and I can see Lara picking up the Decision in this one. However I will only have a small interest in that outcome with the concern that a controversial Decision goes against someone who is not the most liked boxer out there because of a perceived negative style.

MY PICKS: Caleb Truax @ 4.33 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Erislandy Lara by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Boxing 2018 Update: 12-13, + 19.38 Units (39 Units Staked, + 49.69% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (April 7-8)

The 2017/18 season is fast moving towards the end of the campaign and things have begun to be settled in the English Premier League.

Not many are going to back any of the current top four falling out of the Champions League places after Tottenham Hotspur's win at Stamford Bridge last Sunday, while the Premier League title could be decided this weekend.

Even what was once a tight race at the bottom of the table is beginning to separate out with West Brom likely gone and the likes of Stoke City and Southampton in considerable trouble. There is still some juice in that battle though, and it does feel like the remaining weeks of the season in the League will be concentrating on the bottom rather than the top.

For others the FA Cup and Champions League might become the priority going forward and so you have to consider team changes for League games at this time of the season.

This weekend is a prime example of that with both Liverpool and Manchester City tipped to rest big name players for their Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg, yet both are involved in big time derby games too.

It is something to consider as we move into the Weekend Picks from the Premier League with matches taking place on Saturday and Sunday.

Everton v Liverpool Pick: The Merseyside derby opens the Premier League weekend and the big question is how much the Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg is going to be a distraction for Liverpool despite a commanding lead from the First Leg.

Jurgen Klopp has not been happy with the early Saturday kick off for this fixture, but I am not sure where he would have wanted the game placed this weekend? The television companies were obviously going to pick the game for televised selection and the Manchester derby had the late Saturday slot so it seems like just a pointless reason to complain.

At least the manager will be happier with a 3-0 lead over Manchester City in the Champions League Quarter Final and the 10 point lead over Chelsea in the race for the top four in the Premier League. That means Liverpool have every chance to have their most successful season for a number of years, although Everton will come into this one looking to play spoiler for their visitors.

Everton tried to fight fire with fire against Manchester City last weekend and it did not work out for Sam Allardyce like he would have wanted in a 1-3 home defeat. The fans remain unconvinced about Allardyce and it seems more and more likely Everton will be looking for a new manager at the end of the current season.

Allardyce can change some perceptions if he can lead Everton to a first home win over Liverpool since October 2010 and I would be surprised if he decides to change his approach to this fixture markedly from last week. With the away side expected to make some changes, Everton could really try and get after Liverpool and Allardyce could look to earn some big brownie points from the home fans with an upset win on Saturday.

Liverpool look short considering the likes of Mohammad Salah could be rested for the Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg against Manchester City on Tuesday. They also looked vulnerable to Crystal Palace last weekend and I do think Everton can pose problems for Liverpool, although Everton too have lacked defensive discipline and will find it hard to contain Liverpool.

Games between these teams at Goodison Park have been tight affairs in recent years, but Everton's approach could be different this time around and I think they will look to get on the front foot. That will leave spaces for Liverpool too and backing at least three goals to be shared out looks to be the call at a decent looking price.

Bournemouth v Crystal Palace Pick: This is a big game for Crystal Palace who are desperate to try and avoid the drop, but they are not going to have it easy against Bournemouth despite the home team looking like they have pulled away from any real relegation threat.

While Bournemouth are a side who will offer up chances for opponents, Crystal Palace have to respect the fact that their hosts have been scoring goals for fun in recent weeks.

Bournemouth have scored at least twice in 6 of their last 7 home Premier League games and they have won 4 of their last 6 here. While Crystal Palace did earn a clean sheet in their last away game at Huddersfield Town, Bournemouth clearly carry a much greater goal threat than The Terriers and they won't take a backwards step in this one with the way Eddie Howe approaches most fixtures.

On the other hand, Crystal Palace have scored goals away from home and are facing a Bournemouth team who have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 10 home Premier League games. Crystal Palace themselves have scored in 9 straight away games in all competitions and this fixture looks like being one that will produce at least three goals.

Both teams should contribute to a decent game of football and the points on offer are important enough for the teams to chase. Crystal Palace would likely take a point right now, but I think the approach of Bournemouth will mean there are spaces for both teams to exploit and I will back at least three goals shared out for the second time this season between these two teams.

Brighton v Huddersfield Town Pick: There are a couple of fixtures this weekend in the Premier League which are almost 'relegation six pointers' but they do involve a couple of teams who can pull away from any relegation fears with home wins.

Both are on the south coast where Bournemouth host Crystal Palace and Brighton host Huddersfield Town on Saturday afternoon.

In both cases home wins would ease any relegation fears considerable for those teams and Chris Hughton won't ignore how important this game is for Brighton. The remaining fixture list for Brighton is really difficult and a loss would put them in a precarious position, but a win for Brighton may already be good enough to begin planning for Premier League football for another season.

Brighton have been in good form at the Amex Stadium and they will believe only a missed penalty late in the game against Leicester City prevented them winning another fixture. That came when the fixture was still goalless before Brighton were undone by Leicester City, but prior to that Brighton had won 3 straight League wins in this Stadium.

They have been creating chances and scoring goals at home and that should give them the edge against a Huddersfield Town team who have not travelled that well. Huddersfield Town have only scored 10 away goals this season and 9 of those came in their 3 away wins at Crystal Palace, Watford and West Brom.

Those results have to be respected, but Brighton are a team who show decent shape defensively and I think they will be able to do enough to contain Huddersfield Town.

The visitors also have a habit of conceding goals away from home and that is where I like Brighton's chances of earning a vital three points in this fixture. They have beaten Huddersfield Town the last two times they have visited this part of the south coast and I think Brighton's attacking intent in recent weeks has been rewarded with goals.

It will be tight at times, but I will back Brighton to win this one this weekend.

Leicester City v Newcastle United Pick: You have to begin to question the motivation of players in the weeks ahead as their ambitions for the season begin to be achieved.

There is still enough for both Leicester City and Newcastle United to try and produce their best football as they go into the final six weeks of the Premier League season. For the home team the chance to get back into European Football is a big carrot for a strong ending, while Newcastle United still need a few more points to secure their Premier League status for another season.

Both teams have been in decent form in recent weeks which does make this a slightly more difficult game to read.

However I do think home advantage should be enough for Leicester City to earn the three points even if they have drawn their last 3 home Premier League games by the same 1-1 scoreline. Having back to back wins at West Brom and Brighton will have helped the confidence of the players who are trying to finish at least 7th in the Premier League table.

I still have to offer respect for a Newcastle United team who have been difficult to beat in recent matches. They might not be as strong going forward as they would like, but Rafa Benitez keeps them defensively organised which could make it tough for Leicester City to break them down and win the fixture.

The fact Newcastle United are not quite as good away from home and their poor recent record at Leicester City is enough to back the home team for me here. The Foxes have drawn a few too many games at home in recent weeks, but they have the attacking players to find a way past Newcastle United and they have to be worth backing for the three points at the prices available.

Stoke City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Paul Lambert has got his Stoke City playing with a little more confidence than when Mark Hughes left the club, but it was results he was looking for rather than praise.

Unfortunately for Lambert, Stoke City have struggled for consistent results and Charlie Adam should take a large portion of the blame having missed a penalty in one game to drop two points and then being sent off after half an hour of another winnable home game.

Those points have left Stoke City 3 points from safety and with a difficult remaining fixture list and also an inferior goal difference to most above them.

It certainly looks a big task to get out of trouble and now Stoke City have to face a Tottenham Hotspur team who have handed out some real beatings to Stoke City in recent years. The fact that Tottenham Hotspur are also playing with real confidence does not bode well for Stoke City as they have won 3 consecutive games, all away from home and while scoring at least three times each time.

Harry Kane should be back to lead the line and Tottenham Hotspur look a team that could end this season in very strong form with the fixtures remaining for them. Winning the FA Cup would be the icing on the cake for Tottenham Hotspur and I think they are going to be too strong for Stoke City on Saturday in the current form they are in.

Stoke City have lost their last couple of home games in the Premier League and I think Tottenham Hotspur will wear them down. The last 4 between these teams have resulted in wins for Tottenham Hotspur each time and they have outscored Stoke City 17-1 in those games.

Tottenham Hotspur have won 3 consecutive away games while scoring at least three times each time and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap here.

Manchester City v Manchester United Pick: The Manchester derby will always be a big game for the fans of the two clubs involved, but it is hard to get a read on how the players feel about this fixture.

Prior to the Champions League humbling at Liverpool, Manchester City would likely have been very keen to win the title against Manchester United and while that is still the case, I also think the Second Leg of the Champions League tie is going to be a huge distraction for them.

Whether they win this week or not, Manchester City are going to win the Premier League so I can see Pep Guardiola making some big changes to his starting eleven to make sure his key players are mentally ready for a huge challenge they face in the Champions League. A Quarter Final exit simply won't be good enough for Manchester City and they should be completely focused on trying to find a way to turn that tie around.

I can see a number of fringe players being given the chance in this one which makes it tough to really get a feel for a winner.

For Manchester United it can be seen as a chance to lay down the marker for the 2018/19 season by winning at the Champions elect and spoiling the party. However Jose Mourinho has also put some pressure on the players to try and finish 2nd in the Premier League table and that means I can see Mourinho picking a system where he would settle for a point if he can get it.

I would be surprised if Manchester United go gung-ho here but instead I imagine them to be focused defensively and then try and hit Manchester City on the counter attack.

It will be accepted that Manchester City will have more of the ball, but a strong defensive shape can frustrate the home side, especially if they have made a host of changes to keep the big names ready for the Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg.

That may lead to a game that perhaps underwhelms and I think we may not see as many goals as the layers believe. Goals haven't been a problem at Manchester City this season, but they did have to settle for a narrow win over Chelsea who defended in solid numbers and I expect this fixture to develop in a similar way with the likely set up Manchester United take.

Backing less than three goals to be produced in this Saturday late afternoon kick off at odds against looks a generous price.

Arsenal v Southampton Pick: You have to think that all Southampton fans were hoping Arsenal were involved in a scrap in the Europa League Quarter Final against CSKA Moscow so they were almost certainly going to be facing a second string team on Sunday.

Instead Arsenal dominated CSKA Moscow in a 4-1 home win and I think that could mean more familiar names remain on the team sheet for The Gunners.

That is not good news for a Southampton side who have lost back to back away Premier League games by the same 3-0 result and especially when you note how poorly they have played in both games at Newcastle United and West Ham United. Now they face an Arsenal team who have won 4 straight home games and scored at least three times in each of those games.

One glimmer of hope for Southampton is that Arsenal did not play well against Stoke City last weekend before scoring three late goals to beat them. However there is some real momentum behind Arsenal at the moment and I think Southampton are not playing as well as Stoke City have been so confidence is likely going to be in a weaker place.

Southampton have quality in the squad that does make them dangerous if the Arsenal players are not fully focused, but The Gunners played with confidence on Thursday and will want to keep the wins coming to get the fans behind them again.

I would expect Arsene Wenger to play a familiar looking line up and that should be enough to see off The Saints who have not looked like they believe in their ability to avoid the drop. I will back Arsenal to keep the goals coming at the Emirates Stadium and will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.

Chelsea v West Ham United Pick: In recent years Chelsea have struggled to find the consistency from season to season and this looks another year where the defending Champions have failed to reach the heights expected.

Missing out on the Champions League will be a big blow for a club trying to keep hold of the likes of Thibaut Courtois and Eden Hazard, but the 1-3 home loss to Tottenham Hotspur has put their participation in the Champions League on a knife edge.

With 8 points to make up to the top four, Chelsea can't afford to drop more points at Stamford Bridge and it will be interesting to see the reaction of the players. They have been accused of 'downing tools' for previous managers and Chelsea have been in poor form while Antonio Conte is likely going to move on at the end of this current campaign.

West Ham United will be hoping to take advantage of any lack of effort that Chelsea produce on Sunday as they bid to take another big step away from the bottom three in the Premier League.

However they may also be perfect opponents for Chelsea when you think of how poorly West Ham United had been playing prior to the win over Southampton last weekend. The away form has been a particular worry and West Ham United have conceded plenty of goals in recent weeks which could be exposed by a Chelsea team who had looked threatening in the final third last Sunday before their inexplicable capitulation in the second half.

That also came against a much better team than West Ham United and I expect to see a positive reaction from the Chelsea team. There is plenty of talent here and they can become the latest club to really put West Ham United to the sword, although The Hammers could play a part if Chelsea continue to defend as erratically as they have been.

The layers are still asking Chelsea to cover a big number on the handicaps which may have something to do with how poorly West Ham United have defended. However I will back Chelsea to win a game featuring three or more goals with both teams likely to have their opportunities in this one, but the feeling Chelsea are the stronger team and will not have completely given up on a top four bid.

MY PICKS: Everton-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Bournemouth-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Brighton @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Leicester City @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.98 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Manchester City-Manchester United Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Chelsea Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Midweek Football Picks 2015 (April 7-8)

After the Manchester City loss at Selhurst Park, the owners and men in a position of power at the Etihad Stadium might have made a shortlist similar to this list of ten men that may take over as manager of the club if Manuel Pellegrini is sacked in the summer.

It is a quiet week in English football after the Easter Weekend, but there are still a couple of matches of interest this week with a Sixth Round FA Cup Replay and a huge Premier League game taking the limelight during the week.


Aston Villa v Queens Park Rangers Pick: A relegation six pointer on Tuesday is a huge game for both Aston Villa and Queens Park Rangers with the team that loses likely going to be one of the teams that will occupy the bottom three come the end of May.

A draw would probably be accepted by Aston Villa a little more than Queens Park Rangers, but I can't imagine Tim Sherwood asking his men to settle for that, although he won't have been impressed to have seen Chris Ramsey's troop picking up such a morale boosting win as they had on Saturday at West Brom.

The FA Cup Semi Final that Aston Villa be playing in means this game has been brought forward a couple of weeks, but the home team have to be wishing it wasn't coming just days after Queens Park Rangers rediscovered some form. The goals scored and the performance at The Hawthornes will give Queens Park Rangers a lot of belief, especially as Aston Villa look short of numbers in defensive positions.

On the other hand, Tim Sherwood has helped Aston Villa produce the goods in front of goal and they have at least hit the target in 6 of their last 8 games. At Villa Park they had scored in 6 consecutive games before the 0-1 defeat to Swansea and Queens Park Rangers have been far from watertight at the back all season.

Aston Villa look short to win this game considering the performance Queens Park Rangers had on Saturday, but one market still stands out to me and that is the chances of there being at least three goals shared. 7 of the last 8 Queens Park Rangers away games have seen that number hit, while Aston Villa had seen 5 straight home games hit that number before their latest 2 games at Villa Park.

At odds against, this looks a big price considering both managers are likely to take an attacking approach to the game where the three points are a huge factor. I can see a 2-1 scoreline either way in this one and backing at least three goals is my call.


Blackburn Rovers v Liverpool Pick: Any time a team reaches the Quarter Final of any Cup competition, they will take it seriously with the smell of silverware very much in the nostrils. However, this FA Cup has taken on extra significance for Liverpool after two Premier League defeats that has likely left them short in their bid to reach the Champions League.

Brendan Rodgers told the press that he thinks the top four is now beyond them and also made it clear that Liverpool do want to win the FA Cup to provide some happiness for their supporters. All in all it has been a disappointing season for Liverpool who were so close to winning the Premier League last season, but they can mainly blame the opening three months of the campaign for their struggles now.

And it is far from a guarantee that Liverpool are going to make their short odds to win at Ewood Park come through, especially in light of the defensive problems they have through suspension and injury. Losing Emre Can for this game to join Martin Skrtel and Steven Gerrard is a big blow for Liverpool, especially if Dejan Lovren is not fit either and it might result in a change of system which has been very productive for Brendan Rodgers in recent weeks.

Even if Lovren is able to take his place in the line up, Blackburn Rovers have shown they have a lot of pace in the forward positions which could trouble a player that has been out through injury for a while. That pace hurt Swansea and Stoke City to the extent that they were reduced to ten men as they couldn't keep up when the play went behind them and Blackburn Rovers will feel they can trouble Liverpool too.

Of course you would have to expect Liverpool will pose problems for Blackburn Rovers through Philippe Coutinho, Raheem Sterling and Daniel Sturridge and this could be an exciting game for the neutrals to watch. Both teams will give this a go and an early goal will only make the team with that advantage very dangerous on the counter-attack and I believe there will be at least three goals shared between the teams.

That has happened in all three away ties Liverpool have played in the FA Cup this season and in both Blackburn Rovers' home games against Swansea and Stoke City and looks a decent price at just under odds against.

MY PICKS: Aston Villa-Queens Park Rangers Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Blackburn Rovers-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

April Update: 3-2, + 1.40 Units (10 Units Staked, + 14% Yield)

March Final: 30-18, + 30.66 Units (88 Units Staked, + 34.84% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 130-162-4, + 4.43 Units (509 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2015 (April 7th)

The two favourites for the Miami Masters and Premier Event tournaments both came through over the weekend and that means the hard court season has mostly come to an end until July.

With that said, the clay court events have begun this week in Casablanca, Houston and Charleston as the road to Roland Garros begins.

Most of the big name players are not in action this week, but a lot of those on the ATP Tour will return at the Monte Carlo Masters next week. The biggest story about the clay court season that I did read this week was the Novak Djokovic is likely to go into the French Open as the favourite to win that event, although things can quickly change if Rafael Nadal gets back to winning ways on his favourite surface.

It's hard to imagine anyone else challenging for that title at Roland Garros, although Rafael Nadal's slip to Number 5 in the World Rankings means there is the potential that Nadal and Novak Djokovic meet as early as the Quarter Final at the next Grand Slam event. It also makes the draws for the upcoming events very interesting as we could see a lot of Nadal-Djokovic matches on the clay courts at a far earlier time than we have become used to.

That will also put pressure on both players with Ranking points to protect during this clay court season and there is a real potential for Rafael Nadal to drop even further than his current position if he can't return to winning ways over the coming two months.


The picks had a decent return from the tournament in Miami and you can see the season records at the bottom of this post.


Belinda Bencic - 4.5 games v Casey Dellacqua: After a poor start to the 2015 season, Belinda Bencic had a couple of good tournaments at Indian Wells and Miami and she can back that up here in Charleston where she reached the Semi Final last season.

That was about the extent of her success on the clay courts in 2014, but Bencic has more potential to produce her best tennis on the clay courts compared with Casey Dellacqua.

The Australian hasn't been in the best of form this season and I am not sure she has the consistency off the ground to outlast Bencic in this match. The latter also dismissed Dellacqua in Miami and I think the confidence will be higher on her side of the court which should give Bencic the edge in this First Round match.

Her success at this tournament a year ago will also bring good memories and I like Bencic to come through in fairly routine manner.


Nicolas Almagro - 5.5 games v Taro Daniel: All of the qualifiers at these early tournaments should have an edge over their First Round opponents as they are comfortable with the conditions they face, but the change in surface also makes a real difference.

However, Nicolas Almagro has played a lot of tennis on his favoured clay courts since returning from injury and he won't be too disappointed to have the return of the clay court season. He can begin to move up the World Rankings from his current position of 76 and I think Almagro will be a little too strong for Taro Daniel.

You have to respect Daniel for winning three matches here to get into the main draw and he has had success on the clay courts at the level below the main ATP Tour. In saying that, Almagro is a very strong player on the surface who has the power and consistency to trouble players like Daniel for much of the match and I think he will wear down the Japanese player.

The first set should be very competitive as Almagro finds his feet back on the clay courts, but I expect the Spaniard to then move through the gears and come through with a 64, 62 win.


Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: The clay courts in Houston are very different to those that we will see when the Tour moves back to Europe, and I don't just mean the colour. They play a little faster than the traditional red dirt and that is why players like John Isner, Ivo Karlovic and Andy Roddick are previous winners here.

The current defending Champion is actually much more familiar with the normal red dirt clay courts and Fernando Verdasco should prove to be too good for Paolo Lorenzi for the second time this season. Verdasco only lost three games in beating Lorenzi in Quito earlier this season and while I think this will be more competitive, I also think the Spaniard will dictate the tempo of the match and the rallies.

Verdasco has the stronger serve and the heavier groundstrokes, while Lorenzi will look to extract mistakes by getting a lot of balls back in play. That is not the worst way for him to approach this match to be perfectly honest, but I think the match up is one that should be comfortable for Verdasco as he should have time to line up his returns.

If he can keep Lorenzi camped behind the baseline, I would expect Verdasco to come through with a fairly straight-forward 63, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Picks Final: 25-20, + 5.64 Units (90 Units Staked, + 7.45% Yield)

Season 2015: + 36.27 Units (487 Units Staked, + 7.72% Yield)

Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units