Leaving last week with a positive number was a surprise considering how the week had developed and it keeps the Tennis Picks chugging along in 2019. Being able to add to what has been a successful season is a good thing and this week we move on to more events ahead of the really big hard court events that take place in early August.
Those events in Canada and Cincinnati are the big warm up events for the top names on the Tour as we approach the final Grand Slam of the 2019 season at the US Open in New York City. That Slam begins in just under a month from now, but there is quite a bit of tennis to get through even though Novak Djokovic announced he won't be playing too much warm up tennis ahead of the US Open.
This week the Tour moves to Washington, San Jose, Los Cabos and Kitzbuhel with the last of those the only one being played on the clay courts. The rest of the tournaments are hard court events and there are a number of players who have shifted from the clay of Umag, Bastad and Hamburg to the hard courts so that is something to be aware of this week.
With the differing time zones of the various events being played, it does mean that the thread is going to have some selections added to it after it has been posted. Those selections will mainly be from Los Cabos and San Jose which are being played at least seven hours behind the London time zone so markets and order of players will be coming out much later than the ones for Kitzbuhel or Washington.
I am looking for a more consistent week than the last one, although I am always pleased if a winning record is produced. That is the minimum I look for in each week as I look for my own momentum to take into the final Grand Slam of the season which begins at the end of next month.
Monday is usually a quiet day compared with Tuesday in these weeks- there are some First Round matches scheduled for Monday, but the majority of them will be played the following day. I do have some selections from the Monday offerings though which can be read below.
I have also updated the season totals at the bottom of this thread.
Lorenzo Sonego v Federico Delbonis: He might have reached a career high Ranking ahead of Wimbledon, but Lorenzo Sonego has not been able to build on that in the last month. A First Round loss in Gstaad last week means the Italian has actually lost his last six matches on the main Tour on the clay courts and it does make Lorenzo Sonego a hard player to back.
However I do think he can find a way to get back to winning ways when he faces Federico Delbonis in the First Round in Kitzbuhel. He has shown better form than Sonego over the last month with a Challenger title secured as well as a run to the Semi Final in Bastad and a tight loss to Alexander Zverev in Hamburg last week.
On the pure numbers you would have to say that Delbonis deserves his spot as the favourite as well as the fact that Sonego has been on the losing run on the clay courts at the main ATP level. The Argentinian has been holding in 76% of his service games played on the clay courts while he has broken in 29% of return games and it is the success on the return that does give him an edge in this one.
While Lorenzo Sonego is a very good server who can build pressure with that shot, he has struggled to breaking in just 19% of return games played on the clay courts. It is a big difference between the two players, but Sonego has been much more comfortable when he has faced Delbonis.
These two players have met twice on the clay courts since September 2018 with the last of those matches coming earlier this year. In those matches the Lorenzo Sonego serve has been the bigger weapon with 95% of his service games being held compared with Federico Delbonis being down at 75%. The Italian has also kept Delbonis under pressure in those return games with 42% of the points won on the Delbonis serve and I do think Sonego will feel his serve can keep his opponent feeling the pressure in this one too.
I think this is going to be a close match and it looks to be one that Sonego will feel comfortable with. That makes the underdog appealing considering how he has played against Federico Delbonis and a strong serving day will give the Italian every chance of earning the upset.
Hugo Dellien v Roberto Carballas Baena: Coming through the Qualifiers to make the main draws of Hamburg and Kitzbuhel will certainly give Hugo Dellien some confidence, but he has not been able to have a deep run in any of the events played since Wimbledon concluded. The draws have not been that kind to the Bolivian who has been beaten by Juan Ignacio Londero in Bastad (who reached the Final there, and then Nikoloz Basilashvili in Hamburg (who won the title there).
Both defeats have been competitive enough to believe Dellien is feeling pretty good about his game and he is looking to surpass his career best World Number 74 position which was earned earlier this year. It will mean Hugo Dellien needs to have a big week to put some strong Ranking points in the bank, but this looks to be another difficult early match in the main draw.
Hugo Dellien has been very comfortable on the clay courts with some strong results, but the majority of those have come under the main Tour. The same can be said for Roberto Carballas Baena, although back to back Quarter Final runs in Bastad and Gstaad will make the Spaniard feel pretty good about his level going into this event.
On the numbers the slight edge has to be given to Carballas Baena who has held onto his serve in 76% of games played on the clay courts in 2019, while Hugo Dellien is at 73%. There is also a slight edge in terms of the return on this surface with Carballas Baena breaking in 33% of return games compared with Dellien being at 32%, but the percentage of points won by the two players are virtually identical.
It is the Bolivian who may hold the mental edge having beaten Carballas Baena in Rio de Janeiro earlier this year in a match where he created three times as many break points as his opponent. Roberto Carballas Baena really struggled with his serve on that day and I do think Hugo Dellien could frank that win having put a couple of wins on the board in the Qualifiers to become accustomed with the conditions in Kitzbuhel.
With very similar numbers, the value seems to be with Hugo Dellien here and I am going to back the underdog to win.
Ivo Karlovic v Bjorn Fratangelo: No one will be doubting that Ivo Karlovic is on the downward slope of his career, but he still possesses a big serve which will give him chances in matches. That is especially the case in matches like this one in the First Round in Washington, and I am not entirely sure Karlovic should be the underdog.
He might be 40 years old, but Ivo Karlovic has held 95% of his service games played on the hard courts and that is a number that surpasses the 2016, 2017 and 2018 season totals on the surface. The return of serve continues to be an issue for Karlovic, but he will be hoping he can build some scoreboard pressure in this one by trying to run through his service games and make Bjorn Fratangelo feel like he is serving all the time.
This has been a difficult season for Fratangelo who has held 81% of the service games he has played on the hard courts while he has broken in 18% of return games. The American will receive the support from the fans, but he has also struggled in his two previous matches against Karlovic and will need some luck to get through this match.
Ivo Karlovic has held in 90% of his service games played against Bjorn Fratangelo in their two previous matches. At the same time the Croatian has broken in just under 20% of return games played and I think that is a significant edge considering the last match between them was less than twelve months ago.
The feeling is that Karlovic can use his serve to edge out Fratangelo in this one and I am not sure he should be the underdog in the match. At the prices I will back Ivo Karlovic in this opening Round match in Washington.
MY PICKS: Lorenzo Sonego @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Hugo Dellien @ 2.37 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Season 2019: + 117.55 Units (1389 Units Staked, + 8.46% Yield)
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Monday, 29 July 2019
Saturday, 16 February 2013
Tennis Picks (February 16th)
It was a very productive day yesterday as all four picks I made came through to the winner's enclosure and turned around what had been a pretty poor week up until that point.
While that was a welcome change in fortunes, the surprise exit of Roger Federer has opened the door for Juan Martin Del Potro in Rotterdam, the outright pick I had made at the start of the week. The Argentine is now the favourite to win the event, although he will have to be careful against Grigor Dimitrov today in the Semi Final.
Other good news was David Nalbandian fighting through to the Semi Final in Sao Paulo after being Nicolas Almagro in three tough sets. Everyone who reads this will know that Nalbandian is my favourite player of the last few years and this win will ensure he will not be dropping out of the top 100 and he should also be making his way up the Rankings.
Another win today would be very good and would make up for the points he lost at Queens last season when his points were taken away for the default he suffered in the Final.
It is Semi Final day today in all the events around the World and the draws for the next tournaments will also be released at some point during the course of the day so it is a busy day. Here are my picks:
Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: Juan Martin Del Potro has made pretty serene progress through the week so far and I am liking him to get through this Semi Final against Grigor Dimitrov, a player that has been forced to win a couple of deciders already including in the Quarter Final against Marcos Baghdatis yesterday.
Dimitrov has been impressive and there are definite signs that the young Bulgarian is going to make a serious move up the Rankings, but I saw a couple of signs from his match with Baghdatis that suggests he will not quite be good enough against Del Potro in this one.
I still think Dimitrov is not pro-active enough when he has the advantage in rallies and he also seems to go through phases where he is not picking the correct shot, all elements that come with experience and physical maturity. Facing someone who hits as big as Del Potro can and the consistency the Argentine can play with might be a little too hard for Dimitrov to break down in this one and I think it will be Del Potro who creates the more break point opportunities.
Del Potro should have the edge in most aspects of this match and I can see him getting away from Dimitrov after what is likely to be a tough opening set.
Gilles Simon v Julien Benneteau: I am a little surprised that Gilles Simon is considered the underdog in this contest and am of the belief that it could be down to the fact that Julien Benneteau beat Roger Federer last night.
It was an impressive performance from Benneteau and one I didn't think was coming after the easy progress Federer had made through the draw at that stage. However, maybe Benneteau has something intangible when he plays the former World Number 1 having beaten him on the indoor courts in Paris a few years ago and having a two set lead at Wimbledon last season before succumbing in five sets.
Benneteau has certainly made some waves early in the 2013 calender with this being his second Semi Final of the season and he does hold a solid 10-4 record, but it will be interesting to see how he can build on his big win from last night.
Facing Gilles Simon, who was up late in a three set win, is not an easy match up for Benneteau as his compatriot certainly can make him play one more ball than he may like and force errors from the Benneteau game.
Simon has the stamina to take Benneteau into the deep waters in this one and while he isn't the player he was four years ago, he still has enough about him to think he can make the underdog status pay in this one. It has been a good start to 2013 for Simon too and he does hold the 4-2 head to head record, despite losing their last meeting in Australia last season.
I'm guessing this will be close, but Simon to do enough to come through in 3 sets is my call.
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Victoria Azarenka may have lost her position as World Number 1, but she will feel she can still prove a lot by retaining her title from twelve months ago and I expect her to be fully focused on this match.
Azarenka has a big 12-3 lead in the head to head with Agnieszka Radwanska and I am expecting her to continue her recent dominance of the Pole against whom she has won 10 sets in a row, mainly in devastatingly easy fashion.
The problem in this match up for Radwanska is Azarenka's consistency off the ground, an area that Radwanska can exploit against 99% of players on the WTA Tour. With Azarenka not making mistakes, it forces Radwanska to push a little more with her own shots, while Azarenka also has the heavier shots allowing her to dictate the tempo of the match.
Both are in excellent form, but Azarenka has the confidence of having won here before and also from her Australian Open win and I think she will be able to come through with a 6-3, 6-3 win.
Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Maria Sharapova: These two players clearly don't have a lot of time for one another and there is definitely an edge when they play one another- another interesting element is the fact that Maria Sharapova is dating Grigor Dimitrov, a person who was romantically linked to Serena Williams just six months ago.
Serena came through a tough battle with Petra Kvitova last night and I do wonder if that was down to the fact that if she won, she would become the oldest Women's World Number 1 in history and whether achieving that goal had made her tentative and a little too emotional.
I don't expect the same today and think Serena will be a lot more focused on this match against an opponent that hasn't beaten her since 2004 and against whom Williams has won 9 matches in a row.
Most of the recent battles have been very one sided in favour of Williams and I don't know what Sharapova will change in her game plan to turn things around in her favour. The Russian believes her 'A' game can beat anyone so I think she will come out and play as she always does and I believe Serena will be a little too strong for her and a little too consistent.
The last four Williams wins have been extremely one sided and I have a feeling this could end up going the same way.
Sam Querrey v Milos Raonic: I am going to take a small interest in the American to surprise Milos Raonic in this one and move through to the Final as the underdog in this Semi Final.
Sam Querrey has the serve that can win him a lot of cheap points in this match and while Raonic will do the same, this is clearly a match that could be decided by literally one or two points per set.
Querrey has the 2-0 head to head record against Raonic and that mental edge could prove to be the difference, especially as both wins came last season including indoors at the Paris Masters in November. However, the statistics from their matches show there isn't a lot between them and that makes me wonder why Querrey is the big underdog in this one.
I am aware that Raonic has owned this tournament with back to back wins in the last couple of seasons, but Querrey looks under-rated and may just pay off backing the dog.
MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gilles Simon @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Querrey @ 2.63 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 8-7, + 2.54 Units (29 Units Staked, 8.76% Yield)
While that was a welcome change in fortunes, the surprise exit of Roger Federer has opened the door for Juan Martin Del Potro in Rotterdam, the outright pick I had made at the start of the week. The Argentine is now the favourite to win the event, although he will have to be careful against Grigor Dimitrov today in the Semi Final.
Other good news was David Nalbandian fighting through to the Semi Final in Sao Paulo after being Nicolas Almagro in three tough sets. Everyone who reads this will know that Nalbandian is my favourite player of the last few years and this win will ensure he will not be dropping out of the top 100 and he should also be making his way up the Rankings.
Another win today would be very good and would make up for the points he lost at Queens last season when his points were taken away for the default he suffered in the Final.
It is Semi Final day today in all the events around the World and the draws for the next tournaments will also be released at some point during the course of the day so it is a busy day. Here are my picks:
Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: Juan Martin Del Potro has made pretty serene progress through the week so far and I am liking him to get through this Semi Final against Grigor Dimitrov, a player that has been forced to win a couple of deciders already including in the Quarter Final against Marcos Baghdatis yesterday.
Dimitrov has been impressive and there are definite signs that the young Bulgarian is going to make a serious move up the Rankings, but I saw a couple of signs from his match with Baghdatis that suggests he will not quite be good enough against Del Potro in this one.
I still think Dimitrov is not pro-active enough when he has the advantage in rallies and he also seems to go through phases where he is not picking the correct shot, all elements that come with experience and physical maturity. Facing someone who hits as big as Del Potro can and the consistency the Argentine can play with might be a little too hard for Dimitrov to break down in this one and I think it will be Del Potro who creates the more break point opportunities.
Del Potro should have the edge in most aspects of this match and I can see him getting away from Dimitrov after what is likely to be a tough opening set.
Gilles Simon v Julien Benneteau: I am a little surprised that Gilles Simon is considered the underdog in this contest and am of the belief that it could be down to the fact that Julien Benneteau beat Roger Federer last night.
It was an impressive performance from Benneteau and one I didn't think was coming after the easy progress Federer had made through the draw at that stage. However, maybe Benneteau has something intangible when he plays the former World Number 1 having beaten him on the indoor courts in Paris a few years ago and having a two set lead at Wimbledon last season before succumbing in five sets.
Benneteau has certainly made some waves early in the 2013 calender with this being his second Semi Final of the season and he does hold a solid 10-4 record, but it will be interesting to see how he can build on his big win from last night.
Facing Gilles Simon, who was up late in a three set win, is not an easy match up for Benneteau as his compatriot certainly can make him play one more ball than he may like and force errors from the Benneteau game.
Simon has the stamina to take Benneteau into the deep waters in this one and while he isn't the player he was four years ago, he still has enough about him to think he can make the underdog status pay in this one. It has been a good start to 2013 for Simon too and he does hold the 4-2 head to head record, despite losing their last meeting in Australia last season.
I'm guessing this will be close, but Simon to do enough to come through in 3 sets is my call.
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: Victoria Azarenka may have lost her position as World Number 1, but she will feel she can still prove a lot by retaining her title from twelve months ago and I expect her to be fully focused on this match.
Azarenka has a big 12-3 lead in the head to head with Agnieszka Radwanska and I am expecting her to continue her recent dominance of the Pole against whom she has won 10 sets in a row, mainly in devastatingly easy fashion.
The problem in this match up for Radwanska is Azarenka's consistency off the ground, an area that Radwanska can exploit against 99% of players on the WTA Tour. With Azarenka not making mistakes, it forces Radwanska to push a little more with her own shots, while Azarenka also has the heavier shots allowing her to dictate the tempo of the match.
Both are in excellent form, but Azarenka has the confidence of having won here before and also from her Australian Open win and I think she will be able to come through with a 6-3, 6-3 win.
Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Maria Sharapova: These two players clearly don't have a lot of time for one another and there is definitely an edge when they play one another- another interesting element is the fact that Maria Sharapova is dating Grigor Dimitrov, a person who was romantically linked to Serena Williams just six months ago.
Serena came through a tough battle with Petra Kvitova last night and I do wonder if that was down to the fact that if she won, she would become the oldest Women's World Number 1 in history and whether achieving that goal had made her tentative and a little too emotional.
I don't expect the same today and think Serena will be a lot more focused on this match against an opponent that hasn't beaten her since 2004 and against whom Williams has won 9 matches in a row.
Most of the recent battles have been very one sided in favour of Williams and I don't know what Sharapova will change in her game plan to turn things around in her favour. The Russian believes her 'A' game can beat anyone so I think she will come out and play as she always does and I believe Serena will be a little too strong for her and a little too consistent.
The last four Williams wins have been extremely one sided and I have a feeling this could end up going the same way.
Sam Querrey v Milos Raonic: I am going to take a small interest in the American to surprise Milos Raonic in this one and move through to the Final as the underdog in this Semi Final.
Sam Querrey has the serve that can win him a lot of cheap points in this match and while Raonic will do the same, this is clearly a match that could be decided by literally one or two points per set.
Querrey has the 2-0 head to head record against Raonic and that mental edge could prove to be the difference, especially as both wins came last season including indoors at the Paris Masters in November. However, the statistics from their matches show there isn't a lot between them and that makes me wonder why Querrey is the big underdog in this one.
I am aware that Raonic has owned this tournament with back to back wins in the last couple of seasons, but Querrey looks under-rated and may just pay off backing the dog.
MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gilles Simon @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Querrey @ 2.63 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 8-7, + 2.54 Units (29 Units Staked, 8.76% Yield)
Tuesday, 12 February 2013
Tennis Picks (February 12th)
Today is the day that the majority of the tennis tournaments really get going and that does mean there are a lot of matches going on in the various events around the World. You can find my outright picks here.
All of the events have kicked off and we already have seen one of the big surprises in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga being knocked out of the ATP tournament in Rotterdam in three sets by Igor Sijsling. Tsonga had his chances to win in straight sets, but it was the Dutchman that ended up coming out on top and it has certainly cleared the path to the Final for Roger Federer who will play his First Round match on Wednesday.
Tuesday will see the return to action of the likes of Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams in the Women's events and Juan Martin Del Potro's match against Gael Monfils has also been scheduled this evening so plenty of big names to enjoy.
Michael Llodra v Julien Benneteau: This is an interesting match between two Frenchmen in which I am not quite sure why Michael Llodra is the underdog against Julien Benneteau.
Llodra's best tennis is reserved for the faster courts and the indoor hard courts should suit his game against his friend and often Doubles partner. He should be able to put more pressure on the Benneteau serve of the two players and he also holds a 3-1 head to head record against his compatriot, including 2 wins on the indoor hard courts.
Benneteau is no slouch, but he was worrying about a slight back problem against Richard Gasquet last week and I just think the outsider has to be backed in this one, although there is a chance we could see a three set contest.
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games v Monica Niculescu: There is nothing surprising in saying that Jelena Jankovic is not the same player of a few seasons ago, but she should still be far too good for a player of Monica Niculescu's calibre.
Jankovic had dominated Niculescu in their previous meetings, winning all 5 on the professional Tour and winning every set including a 6-2, 6-1 win in Beijing last season.
Niculescu has a very 'grimy' game- she plays with a lot of variation and looks to befuddle her opponents, but Jankovic can play the exact same way but with a little more conviction behind her shots.
That should prove to be the difference again between the players even if Jankovic is not as solid as she has been in her career, but it should be enough for the Serb to cover this spread.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Guido Pella: Fabio Fognini is a frustrating character to back as he simply puts in too many matches where the effort is not at the necessary level to really have a impact on the ATP Tour.
However, he is playing an opponent he has beaten before and one that is still getting used to playing at the main level in professional tennis. Guido Pella has been raised on the clay courts and has Challenger wins on the surface, but facing someone of the level of Fognini should be a little too much for him just yet.
Fognini did only manage an 11-10 record on the clay courts last season, but I think he will be a little too good in both sets to see him through in this one. There should be a few breaks of serve and I am hoping the Italian doesn't put in a lacklustre display as is his want from time to time.
As a former Semi Finalist and Quarter Finalist at this tournament, I hope Fognini comes out with some seriousness in this one with a chance of improving his Ranking with a decent run.
Carlos Berlocq - 4.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: These two players will be meeting for a second week in a row and I don't think the result will be too much different from the comfortable win for Carlos Berlocq that was recorded last week in Chile.
Berlocq has now won all 3 meetings with Andrey Kuznetsov, while the two meetings on the clay courts has seen the Russian win all of 5 games in 4 losing sets.
There is definitely an edge for Berlocq in terms of talent and experience on the slower clay courts and the Argentine is definitely the one who has been playing against the superior talent over the last couple of seasons.
Kuznetsov did win 4 Challenger titles on the clay courts last season so don't under-estimate him and I do suppose he wins a couple more games than last week when they met, although that should still enable Berlocq to cover.
Ryan Harrison - 3.5 games v Benjamin Becker: Benjamin Becker remains a couple wins short of reaching 100 career wins on the ATP Tour and I think the German will still be a couple wins short after the conclusion of this match with Ryan Harrison.
Harrison hasn't played since his exit against Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open, and the American may only be ranked 4 places above Becker, but he did reach the Semi Final here in San Jose last season and has also beaten Becker in both of their previous meetings.
There have definitely been some signs that Harrison will progress up the World Rankings, although an injury cut his season short last year. The Semi Final appearance here last season was his first real success on an indoor hard court, but he has the consistency to hurt Becker who continues to throw in a poor service game per set.
The American has also won all 4 sets he has played against Becker and I can see him coming through with a 6-3, 7-6 win in this one.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Guido Pella: Fabio Fognini is a frustrating character to back as he simply puts in too many matches where the effort is not at the necessary level to really have a impact on the ATP Tour.
However, he is playing an opponent he has beaten before and one that is still getting used to playing at the main level in professional tennis. Guido Pella has been raised on the clay courts and has Challenger wins on the surface, but facing someone of the level of Fognini should be a little too much for him just yet.
Fognini did only manage an 11-10 record on the clay courts last season, but I think he will be a little too good in both sets to see him through in this one. There should be a few breaks of serve and I am hoping the Italian doesn't put in a lacklustre display as is his want from time to time.
As a former Semi Finalist and Quarter Finalist at this tournament, I hope Fognini comes out with some seriousness in this one with a chance of improving his Ranking with a decent run.
Carlos Berlocq - 4.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: These two players will be meeting for a second week in a row and I don't think the result will be too much different from the comfortable win for Carlos Berlocq that was recorded last week in Chile.
Berlocq has now won all 3 meetings with Andrey Kuznetsov, while the two meetings on the clay courts has seen the Russian win all of 5 games in 4 losing sets.
There is definitely an edge for Berlocq in terms of talent and experience on the slower clay courts and the Argentine is definitely the one who has been playing against the superior talent over the last couple of seasons.
Kuznetsov did win 4 Challenger titles on the clay courts last season so don't under-estimate him and I do suppose he wins a couple more games than last week when they met, although that should still enable Berlocq to cover.
Ryan Harrison - 3.5 games v Benjamin Becker: Benjamin Becker remains a couple wins short of reaching 100 career wins on the ATP Tour and I think the German will still be a couple wins short after the conclusion of this match with Ryan Harrison.
Harrison hasn't played since his exit against Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open, and the American may only be ranked 4 places above Becker, but he did reach the Semi Final here in San Jose last season and has also beaten Becker in both of their previous meetings.
There have definitely been some signs that Harrison will progress up the World Rankings, although an injury cut his season short last year. The Semi Final appearance here last season was his first real success on an indoor hard court, but he has the consistency to hurt Becker who continues to throw in a poor service game per set.
The American has also won all 4 sets he has played against Becker and I can see him coming through with a 6-3, 7-6 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Michael Llodra @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Carlos Berlocq - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Carlos Berlocq - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Sunday, 10 February 2013
Tennis Outright Picks (February 11-17)
After the Australian Open, there are always the two weeks where the ATP Tour shuts down allowing for Davis Cup action, while the WTA Tour closes down for Fed Cup action.
That does mean the first couple of weeks in February can be 'quieter' times of the season and a lot of the main players on both Tours are out of action.
It won't be the case this week as the likes of Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro are taking part in events across the World on the Men's Tour, while the event in Doha has captured 18 of the top 19 Women's players.
Last week, the big story was the aforementioned Rafael Nadal who made his long-awaited return to the Tour and is currently playing in the Final of the Singles event as I am writing this. It wasn't the toughest field that Nadal was up against, especially when Juan Monaco was beaten early, but it is clear that his aura still affects his opponents and I am expecting the Spaniard to have a couple more good weeks on the clay courts.
However, I am not convinced he will be a big player at either Indian Wells or Miami in the first Masters tournaments which begin in March.
The week in general was very good for the blog as both outright picks ended up winning their tournaments in Montpellier and Zagreb respectively. With the daily picks also showing a profit, it turns the seasons results back into black ahead of this week.
ATP Rotterdam
Surprisingly, Roger Federer has decided to return to Rotterdam to defend the title he won last season- I am surprised simply because Federer took part last season with the goal of getting back to Number 1 in the World Rankings and that is clearly not his main ambition going forward, or so I thought at least.
Federer is the short priced favourite to win the tournament, but he looks a little too short for me considering he has the tougher half of the draw with a potential Semi Final against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on the agenda.
We all saw Tsonga push Federer in the Australian Open Quarter Final and the indoor hard courts should help the Frenchman, although I still have Federer as the Number 1 player on these types of courts if I am honest. I would expect the Swiss man to get through, but it's not an easy run like the prices suggest it will be for him to retain his title here.
One man from the other half of the draw that could certainly get the better of Federer in the Final is Juan Martin Del Potro- the Argentine has beaten Federer the last two times they have played, both of those wins coming on the indoor hard courts in Basel and London.
Del Potro hasn't had the best start to his 2013 campaign, especially not with the surprise loss to Jeremy Chardy at the Australian Open, but he could go one better than last season and win this tournament this year if he can take care of a tough First Round opponent in Gael Monfils.
There are some potential dangers in the forms of Andreas Seppi and Richard Gasquet, but I have reasons to oppose both (injury and playing a full week last week respectively), while Del Potro has strong head to head records against both and would be favoured in my opinion.
ATP San Jose
I have mentioned on more than one occasion since beginning the tennis picks on the blog over the last couple of seasons that sometimes the 'horses for courses' term applies to tennis players at particularly events.
Milos Raonic has won back to back titles here in San Jose and he will feel confident he can add to that haul considering the faster indoor hard courts should suit his game down to the ground. The big serving Canadian hasn't had a great start to the 2013 season, but helping Canada to a Davis Cup win over Spain should have inspired him to come back and defend his title here and get the new season going in a positive direction.
It won't be an easy path through to the Final for Raonic as there are some potential dangers in the forms of Ryan Harrison and Sam Querrey with both of those players being a combined 3-1 against Raonic.
With those potential opponents in the way, I feel Raonic is far too short in the outright market and will instead focus on another former winner of this event who is in the bottom half of the draw.
Fernando Verdasco hasn't won a title since 2010 when he took the trophy home here in San Jose and also later in the year at Barcelona and he has been winning fewer and fewer matches over the last few years since his breakout year in 2009.
However, like Raonic, Verdasco seems to very comfortable in San Jose having won the event once and reached the Final in his only other appearance at the tournament. The Spaniard will have a tough Second Round test against likely Ivo Karlovic, while both Tommy Haas and John Isner will pose their own problems, but Verdasco looks a big price to go all the way at the tournament.
The indoor hard courts should still favour Verdasco's game despite a 3-3 record last season, and he has every chance of getting to the Final three straight times he has played here.
The tournaments in Sao Paulo and Doha haven't got prices that have appealed to me for different reasons- the first is that Rafael Nadal's appearance on the clay court swing in South America has meant layers are not offering each way prices and he does look the pick. Also, the bottom half of the draw in Brazil doesn't seem to have a clear cut option to reach the Final, although I would guess at the Number 2 seeded Nicolas Almagro to do so.
Doha is a major event on the WTA Tour as I mentioned that they have 18 of the top 19 players taking part at the tournament. However, there are no outright prices being offered on that one so I will stick with the two picks I have made from Rotterdam and San Jose this week.
MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro @ 5.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit E/W)
Fernando Verdasco @ 11.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit E/W)
Daily Picks: 6-5, + 1.22 Units (19 Units Staked, + 6.42% Yield)
Outright Picks: 2-0, + 8.75 Units (2 Units Staked, + 437.5% Yield)
Season 2013: + 7.35 Units (154 Units Staked, + 4.77% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
That does mean the first couple of weeks in February can be 'quieter' times of the season and a lot of the main players on both Tours are out of action.
It won't be the case this week as the likes of Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro are taking part in events across the World on the Men's Tour, while the event in Doha has captured 18 of the top 19 Women's players.
Last week, the big story was the aforementioned Rafael Nadal who made his long-awaited return to the Tour and is currently playing in the Final of the Singles event as I am writing this. It wasn't the toughest field that Nadal was up against, especially when Juan Monaco was beaten early, but it is clear that his aura still affects his opponents and I am expecting the Spaniard to have a couple more good weeks on the clay courts.
However, I am not convinced he will be a big player at either Indian Wells or Miami in the first Masters tournaments which begin in March.
The week in general was very good for the blog as both outright picks ended up winning their tournaments in Montpellier and Zagreb respectively. With the daily picks also showing a profit, it turns the seasons results back into black ahead of this week.
ATP Rotterdam
Surprisingly, Roger Federer has decided to return to Rotterdam to defend the title he won last season- I am surprised simply because Federer took part last season with the goal of getting back to Number 1 in the World Rankings and that is clearly not his main ambition going forward, or so I thought at least.
Federer is the short priced favourite to win the tournament, but he looks a little too short for me considering he has the tougher half of the draw with a potential Semi Final against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on the agenda.
We all saw Tsonga push Federer in the Australian Open Quarter Final and the indoor hard courts should help the Frenchman, although I still have Federer as the Number 1 player on these types of courts if I am honest. I would expect the Swiss man to get through, but it's not an easy run like the prices suggest it will be for him to retain his title here.
One man from the other half of the draw that could certainly get the better of Federer in the Final is Juan Martin Del Potro- the Argentine has beaten Federer the last two times they have played, both of those wins coming on the indoor hard courts in Basel and London.
Del Potro hasn't had the best start to his 2013 campaign, especially not with the surprise loss to Jeremy Chardy at the Australian Open, but he could go one better than last season and win this tournament this year if he can take care of a tough First Round opponent in Gael Monfils.
There are some potential dangers in the forms of Andreas Seppi and Richard Gasquet, but I have reasons to oppose both (injury and playing a full week last week respectively), while Del Potro has strong head to head records against both and would be favoured in my opinion.
ATP San Jose
I have mentioned on more than one occasion since beginning the tennis picks on the blog over the last couple of seasons that sometimes the 'horses for courses' term applies to tennis players at particularly events.
Milos Raonic has won back to back titles here in San Jose and he will feel confident he can add to that haul considering the faster indoor hard courts should suit his game down to the ground. The big serving Canadian hasn't had a great start to the 2013 season, but helping Canada to a Davis Cup win over Spain should have inspired him to come back and defend his title here and get the new season going in a positive direction.
It won't be an easy path through to the Final for Raonic as there are some potential dangers in the forms of Ryan Harrison and Sam Querrey with both of those players being a combined 3-1 against Raonic.
With those potential opponents in the way, I feel Raonic is far too short in the outright market and will instead focus on another former winner of this event who is in the bottom half of the draw.
Fernando Verdasco hasn't won a title since 2010 when he took the trophy home here in San Jose and also later in the year at Barcelona and he has been winning fewer and fewer matches over the last few years since his breakout year in 2009.
However, like Raonic, Verdasco seems to very comfortable in San Jose having won the event once and reached the Final in his only other appearance at the tournament. The Spaniard will have a tough Second Round test against likely Ivo Karlovic, while both Tommy Haas and John Isner will pose their own problems, but Verdasco looks a big price to go all the way at the tournament.
The indoor hard courts should still favour Verdasco's game despite a 3-3 record last season, and he has every chance of getting to the Final three straight times he has played here.
The tournaments in Sao Paulo and Doha haven't got prices that have appealed to me for different reasons- the first is that Rafael Nadal's appearance on the clay court swing in South America has meant layers are not offering each way prices and he does look the pick. Also, the bottom half of the draw in Brazil doesn't seem to have a clear cut option to reach the Final, although I would guess at the Number 2 seeded Nicolas Almagro to do so.
Doha is a major event on the WTA Tour as I mentioned that they have 18 of the top 19 players taking part at the tournament. However, there are no outright prices being offered on that one so I will stick with the two picks I have made from Rotterdam and San Jose this week.
MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro @ 5.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit E/W)
Fernando Verdasco @ 11.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit E/W)
Daily Picks: 6-5, + 1.22 Units (19 Units Staked, + 6.42% Yield)
Outright Picks: 2-0, + 8.75 Units (2 Units Staked, + 437.5% Yield)
Season 2013: + 7.35 Units (154 Units Staked, + 4.77% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Thursday, 16 February 2012
Tennis Picks February 16th
It has been a better couple of days, although the curse of the capitulation is still hovering over my head as David Nalbandian lost 8 of 9 games at one point of his match with Benoit Paire and still managed to just miss the cover by half a game.
It was disappointing as he was 5-1 0-40 on the Paire serve, but failed to win the set and then went on to lose 5 games in a row.
Still, I won't complain too much as I had winners with Robby Ginepri, Marcos Baghdatis and Potito Starace to at least recover the bad start to the week.
We still have Nicolas Almagro and Tomas Berdych going in the outright markets, although the latter has taken a hit with the news that Roger Federer has received a bye through to the Quarter Finals as Mikhail Youzhny pulled out of the tournament. That means the former World Number 1 should be very fresh while Berdych still has to negotiate Juan Martin Del Potro if he is to even reach the Final.
Almagro is yet to make his first appearance at the tournament in Brazil, but should be in action tomorrow.
As I have done all week, I am going to make my picks for the day in different periods as the tournaments in the Americas have their markets put up a little later, while the same can be said of Doha which has a full schedule tomorrow.
You can follow me on Twitter where I always post a link to this thread when new picks are made.
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Alex Bogomolov Jr: Now I know Richard Gasquet made tougher work of his 1st Round opponent than he needed to, but this is a match he should be winning with a bit to spare as long as he can serve effectively.
That was Gasquet's problem against Flavio Cipolla in the last Round as he struggled with the serve and winning enough points behind it, but he managed to steel himself on the Italian's serve to earn enough break points to win the match.
Alex Bogomolov had a career season last year, but his a player that can fall apart in matches as we have seen in recent losses to Jurgen Melzer and Lukas Lacko and I think Gasquet can put enough pressure on him to secure a couple of breaks in a set and that should be good enough to cover this spread.
Hopefully Gasquet won't have a loss of concentration as he did in the 1st Round and, in that case, come through 6-3, 6-3.
Marcos Baghdatis + 1.5 sets v Tomas Berdych: I have picked Berdych in the outright market to win the tournament here in Rotterdam, but I think he may have to go the distance to beat Marcos Baghdatis in what looks like being the match of the day in Holland and perhaps in any tournament being played today.
Baghdatis was a solid winner in the 1st Round and has the game to cause anyone problems, even someone in very strong form as Berdych is. If the Cypriot can serve well, I can see him exerting enough pressure to create chances against the Czech's service games and at least push him the whole way.
They have met 5 times previously with Berdych winning 3 of those meetings... Only one, the last, has actually seen both Men win a set, although Baghdatis could be inspired by the fact he has won 3 of the last 5 sets that they have competed.
The players are 2-2 on hard courts against one another, but I just think that at odds against, Baghdatis is perhaps being a little under-rated and is worth chancing to take at least a set.
Yanina Wickmayer - 4.5 games v Ksenia Pervak: Now I am hoping I am not catching Pervak in a breakout week after attempting to fade her in the 1st Round here, but I do believe Yanina Wickmayer has the skills to see off her young challenger here in Doha.
Pervak is coming up against a player that has shown plenty of decent form in recent weeks, while the young Kazakhstan player has usually come up short when playing the better players on the WTA Tour. Whether Wickmayer can be considered in that category may be up for debate, as she has not really pushed on as expected, but a Semi Final run in Paris last week has indicated that she is finding some good tennis.
I can't escape the fact that Pervak had lost her last 4 matches before winning two in a row here this week and feel this could be a hurdle too far. As long as Wickmayer is not in the 'mindless ball-bashing' mode she can sometimes resort to, I think she should be too strong, pulling away in the second set after a tight first.
Albert Ramos - 3 games v Igor Andreev: Igor Andreev had so much potential, but I fear he has missed the boat and it is funny to see him languishing outside of the top 100 now. He beat Fernando Gonzalez in straight sets in the 1st Round here, but this is sure to be a much tougher test for a player that has the tendency to collapse under sustained pressure.
Albert Ramos was predominantly a clay court player in his early career, which is no surprise seeing as he is from Spain, but he seems to have taken the policy to follow the Main Tour a little more closely this season and this is his first clay court tournament of 2012. He had an impressive win over Santiago Giraldo in the last Round as the underdog and has the game that could wear down Andreev here.
I expect Ramos will try and use consistency in his play and hope Andreev loses patience and perhaps becomes a little erratic in his play. The Russian has also failed to progress beyond the 2nd Round at a tournament since before the US Open in 2011 and was heavily beaten by Juan Monaco in Chile a couple of weeks ago at this stage.
Ramos will also feel confidence from having beaten Andreev on a clay court in their only previous meeting and I will look for him to do so again today.
Jeremy Chardy - 2 games v Leonardo Mayer: I am a little unsure as to why, but Jeremy Chardy continues to be underestimated by the layers despite enjoying a decent couple of tournaments on the clay courts of South America and I think he has been overlooked in this market.
Chardy was a Semi Finalist in Chile a couple of weeks ago before being beaten in straight sets by the eventual winner of the tournament in Juan Monaco, and he has already won three matches here as he was forced to come through the Qualifying section. His career had hit the buffers last season after a couple of decent years on the tour, but there are signs that he is getting his act together.
The Frenchman will surely fancy his chances against Leonardo Mayer having beaten the Argentinian a couple of weeks ago in Chile 7-5, 6-2. Mayer enjoys playing on the clay courts, but the majority of his success has come in qualifying campaigns or on the Challenger Tour and I think his win over Juan Carlos Ferrero in the 1st Round is being given a little too much credit considering the Spaniard had travelled over from Europe where he had been having a couple of fitness issues in the Davis Cup.
Chardy has a decent serve and I think that should enable him to win more 'cheap' points and also allow him to pressure the Mayer serve. Chardy won 47% of the points off the Mayer serve and I think he should be a fairly comfortable winner if he can get his own first serve percentage up to around the 60% mark.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 1.5 sets @ 2.10 188Bet (2 Units)
Yanina Wickmayer - 4.5 games @ 1.95 188Bet (2 Units)
Albert Ramos - 3 games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 2 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-6, - 0.26 Units (24 Units Staked)
It was disappointing as he was 5-1 0-40 on the Paire serve, but failed to win the set and then went on to lose 5 games in a row.
Still, I won't complain too much as I had winners with Robby Ginepri, Marcos Baghdatis and Potito Starace to at least recover the bad start to the week.
We still have Nicolas Almagro and Tomas Berdych going in the outright markets, although the latter has taken a hit with the news that Roger Federer has received a bye through to the Quarter Finals as Mikhail Youzhny pulled out of the tournament. That means the former World Number 1 should be very fresh while Berdych still has to negotiate Juan Martin Del Potro if he is to even reach the Final.
Almagro is yet to make his first appearance at the tournament in Brazil, but should be in action tomorrow.
As I have done all week, I am going to make my picks for the day in different periods as the tournaments in the Americas have their markets put up a little later, while the same can be said of Doha which has a full schedule tomorrow.
You can follow me on Twitter where I always post a link to this thread when new picks are made.
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Alex Bogomolov Jr: Now I know Richard Gasquet made tougher work of his 1st Round opponent than he needed to, but this is a match he should be winning with a bit to spare as long as he can serve effectively.
That was Gasquet's problem against Flavio Cipolla in the last Round as he struggled with the serve and winning enough points behind it, but he managed to steel himself on the Italian's serve to earn enough break points to win the match.
Alex Bogomolov had a career season last year, but his a player that can fall apart in matches as we have seen in recent losses to Jurgen Melzer and Lukas Lacko and I think Gasquet can put enough pressure on him to secure a couple of breaks in a set and that should be good enough to cover this spread.
Hopefully Gasquet won't have a loss of concentration as he did in the 1st Round and, in that case, come through 6-3, 6-3.
Marcos Baghdatis + 1.5 sets v Tomas Berdych: I have picked Berdych in the outright market to win the tournament here in Rotterdam, but I think he may have to go the distance to beat Marcos Baghdatis in what looks like being the match of the day in Holland and perhaps in any tournament being played today.
Baghdatis was a solid winner in the 1st Round and has the game to cause anyone problems, even someone in very strong form as Berdych is. If the Cypriot can serve well, I can see him exerting enough pressure to create chances against the Czech's service games and at least push him the whole way.
They have met 5 times previously with Berdych winning 3 of those meetings... Only one, the last, has actually seen both Men win a set, although Baghdatis could be inspired by the fact he has won 3 of the last 5 sets that they have competed.
The players are 2-2 on hard courts against one another, but I just think that at odds against, Baghdatis is perhaps being a little under-rated and is worth chancing to take at least a set.
Yanina Wickmayer - 4.5 games v Ksenia Pervak: Now I am hoping I am not catching Pervak in a breakout week after attempting to fade her in the 1st Round here, but I do believe Yanina Wickmayer has the skills to see off her young challenger here in Doha.
Pervak is coming up against a player that has shown plenty of decent form in recent weeks, while the young Kazakhstan player has usually come up short when playing the better players on the WTA Tour. Whether Wickmayer can be considered in that category may be up for debate, as she has not really pushed on as expected, but a Semi Final run in Paris last week has indicated that she is finding some good tennis.
I can't escape the fact that Pervak had lost her last 4 matches before winning two in a row here this week and feel this could be a hurdle too far. As long as Wickmayer is not in the 'mindless ball-bashing' mode she can sometimes resort to, I think she should be too strong, pulling away in the second set after a tight first.
Albert Ramos - 3 games v Igor Andreev: Igor Andreev had so much potential, but I fear he has missed the boat and it is funny to see him languishing outside of the top 100 now. He beat Fernando Gonzalez in straight sets in the 1st Round here, but this is sure to be a much tougher test for a player that has the tendency to collapse under sustained pressure.
Albert Ramos was predominantly a clay court player in his early career, which is no surprise seeing as he is from Spain, but he seems to have taken the policy to follow the Main Tour a little more closely this season and this is his first clay court tournament of 2012. He had an impressive win over Santiago Giraldo in the last Round as the underdog and has the game that could wear down Andreev here.
I expect Ramos will try and use consistency in his play and hope Andreev loses patience and perhaps becomes a little erratic in his play. The Russian has also failed to progress beyond the 2nd Round at a tournament since before the US Open in 2011 and was heavily beaten by Juan Monaco in Chile a couple of weeks ago at this stage.
Ramos will also feel confidence from having beaten Andreev on a clay court in their only previous meeting and I will look for him to do so again today.
Jeremy Chardy - 2 games v Leonardo Mayer: I am a little unsure as to why, but Jeremy Chardy continues to be underestimated by the layers despite enjoying a decent couple of tournaments on the clay courts of South America and I think he has been overlooked in this market.
Chardy was a Semi Finalist in Chile a couple of weeks ago before being beaten in straight sets by the eventual winner of the tournament in Juan Monaco, and he has already won three matches here as he was forced to come through the Qualifying section. His career had hit the buffers last season after a couple of decent years on the tour, but there are signs that he is getting his act together.
The Frenchman will surely fancy his chances against Leonardo Mayer having beaten the Argentinian a couple of weeks ago in Chile 7-5, 6-2. Mayer enjoys playing on the clay courts, but the majority of his success has come in qualifying campaigns or on the Challenger Tour and I think his win over Juan Carlos Ferrero in the 1st Round is being given a little too much credit considering the Spaniard had travelled over from Europe where he had been having a couple of fitness issues in the Davis Cup.
Chardy has a decent serve and I think that should enable him to win more 'cheap' points and also allow him to pressure the Mayer serve. Chardy won 47% of the points off the Mayer serve and I think he should be a fairly comfortable winner if he can get his own first serve percentage up to around the 60% mark.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 1.5 sets @ 2.10 188Bet (2 Units)
Yanina Wickmayer - 4.5 games @ 1.95 188Bet (2 Units)
Albert Ramos - 3 games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 2 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-6, - 0.26 Units (24 Units Staked)
Sunday, 12 February 2012
Tennis Outright Tournament Picks (February 13-19)
I only took part in the opening day of the Davis Cup ties as that is the one day that most of the layers have their prices up, while there is a lot of confusion in the later days over who is playing and who won't be with teams winning ties after the first three rubbers.
It wasn't a great time picking those games though as we saw some real surprise results (Federer losing to Isner being the biggest), so I was fairly content getting out of the day with a slight loss.
This week the tournaments take a slightly more serious tone, and that is highlighted by the fact that players like Roger Federer are going to be in action as the Rotterdam tournament is also a ATP 500 event. With that in mind, I think I will be playing the week as usual with the outright picks below, and daily picks being posted throughout the week.
ATP Rotterdam
It is actually a surprise, and shows a lot of intention for the 2012 season, that Roger Federer will be taking part in this event this season. The former World Number 1 has already declared his ambition to get the top position back and he will know that he has half a chance if he can increase his schedule and win a few more events. With Novak Djokovic having a tonne of points to defend this year up until the US Open, winning events will help reduce the gap between himself and Federer, while the Number 2 position could also be up for grabs.
Federer has been given a fairly straightforward draw and could have no real complaints about that, so it is no surprise to see him as a short favourite to win the event.
There are a couple of tough looking encounters to negotiate, but I would expect Federer to get through against Nicolas Mahut, Mikhail Youzhny, Alexandr Dolgopolov and Richard Gaquet, with the latter two most likely to cause the most problems.
While I have no doubt that Federer is coming to Holland with the intention of winning (why else would he take part in an event he has mostly missed over the years?), I still think it is a little risk to back him at the short odds being offered.
Instead I am going to look at the bottom half of the draw and Number 2 seed at the event, Tomas Berdych- the big Czech player will not be facing the change of surface that Federer is having played in the Davis Cup on an indoor hard court, and he has started magnificently well this season after an inconsistent and disappointing 2011.
Berdych reached the Quarter Final at the Australian Open and pushed Rafael Nadal heavily in that loss, while following that up with a win at the indoor tournament in Marseille last week. He has been in very solid form and should enjoy playing on the courts here in Rotterdam, although he will have a couple of tough tests in his path to the Final.
The big man has a potentially awkward match with Marcos Baghdatis in the 2nd Round that could cause one or two problems, but Berdych has won 3 of their last 4 meetings and I think he is playing at a much higher level than the Cypriot at the moment.
The biggest problem, however, could come in the form of Juan Martin Del Potro, who is seeded to meet Berdych in the Semi Final. The Argentine had won the last two meetings with Berdych, although suffering a number of injuries since then and he has also been given a tough opening match with Michael Llodra who plays his best tennis indoors.
With that tough opener in mind, I think Berdych looks a decent choice to win his second tournament of the season, especially at the decent looking 5.50 being offered at Bet365.
ATP San Jose
A small field has got together on the American hard courts in San Jose, being led by Gael Monfils and Andy Roddick, both players that look a little vulnerable to me at the top of the market.
Gael Monfils has all the talent in the World, but he is infuriating at times and it is no wonder he has only won 4 career titles and struggles to maintain a presence in the top 10. On paper, it looks like Monfils has been presented with a great opportunity to make it through to the Final here, as he receives a 'bye' in the 1st Round, and then plays a Qualifier before a tough, but winnable, Quarter Final against Ryan Harrison.
However, the biggest danger to Monfils could come from the up and coming Milos Raonic of Canada, a player that had a break out season last year and is looking to push on this while defending his title here.
Raonic is a definite top 20 player in the making and could easily break the top 10 if he can find some consistency in his game and he has already secured a title in Chennai this season. The Canadian is still playing in their Davis Cup tie, but he has been given a 'bye' through the 1st Round and will not have to play here until Wednesday.
He has a tough looking game with Kevin Anderson in the Quarter Final, but I think he will fancy his chances of defending his title here. Raonic lost his only meeting with Monfils on an indoor hard court in 3 sets in Sweden, but that was a close match and he could easily reverse that result on a court he enjoyed playing on in 2011.
The bottom half of the draw is a little harder to separate as there are a number of players that have a few question marks to answer. Andy Roddick is the top player in this half by seeds, but I would be keen to see how he has recovered from the injury that forced him out of the Australian Open last month.
Sam Querrey would have been of interest if he had not been returning from an injury plagued 2011, while Julien Benneteau is another vulnerable seed.
One player who could come of the section is Radek Stepanek, although he is clearly a player coming towards the end of his career. Stepanek helped the Czech Republic to a win over Italy in the Davis Cup and has enjoyed plenty of success in these type of tournaments in the States in the past, including winning a 500 event in Washington last season.
I just think his price is a touch short considering he has not had the best start to the 2012 season, although his draw is decent.
However, the winner looks set to come out of the top half of the draw for me, and Milos Raonic seems to fit the bill in terms of consistency, ability to win on these courts and motivation.
ATP Sao Paulo
The Number 1 seed at the event is Nicolas Almagro and I think he can may hay from this position. He has been playing in the Davis Cup for Spain, but will be given a 'bye' in the 1st Round here so will not have to take to the court until Wednesday at the earliest.
That time will enable Almagro to hopefully get rid of any jetlag from the trip to Brazil from Europe and I think he can go all the way through to the Final, even if that means beating a couple of big obstacles in the way.
The Spaniard shouldn't have too many problems in the 2nd Round, but a potential Quarter Final against the in-form Carlos Berlocq is a worry, before a likely Semi Final with Fernando Verdasco.
Almagro has a winning record against Berlocq and would fancy his chances against him on a clay court, while he has beaten Verdasco in 2 of their last 3 matches. The latter is also in horrible form after a poor 2011 and he may not have the confidence to see off Almagro if it turns into a close encounter.
The bottom half of the draw has some very interesting players, although you could put a question mark beside a few of the names we see. Juan Carlos Ferrero was showing signs of physical incapability while playing for Spain so it hard to imagine him winning 5 matches in a row to take this tournament, while Thomaz Bellucci has been out of form although he could be inspired by playing in front of his own supporters.
David Nalbandian would be an interesting player with the right draw, but he too will be coming over from Europe without the benefit of having a 'bye' in the 1st Round. Nalbandian has also been very inconsistent over the last 12 months and is always susceptible to a pull out through injury.
The Argentine will also run into Gilles Simon in the 2nd Round and it just looks like a tough path through to the Final for him. Nalbandian would be a dangerous opponent for Almagro if he got to the Final as he would be match hardened, but the Spaniard has won 2 of their 3 meetings on clay courts and should be able to beat him at this stage of their respective careers.
MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Tomas Berdych @ 6.50 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Milos Raonic @ 4.50 Stan James (1 Unit) Just as I was about to place this pick, I noticed that Raonic has pulled out of the 4th Rubber in the Davis Cup tie with France and is suffering with a knee issue that could rule him out of this tournament... PICK CANCELLED and I won't be picking another player in the tournament now.
Nicolas Almagro @ 4.33 Stan James (1 Unit)
Davis Cup: 2-3, - 2.4 Units (10 Units Staked, - 24% yield)
2012 Season: + 20.88 Units (87 Units Staked, + 24% yield)
2011 Season: + 82.02 Units
It wasn't a great time picking those games though as we saw some real surprise results (Federer losing to Isner being the biggest), so I was fairly content getting out of the day with a slight loss.
This week the tournaments take a slightly more serious tone, and that is highlighted by the fact that players like Roger Federer are going to be in action as the Rotterdam tournament is also a ATP 500 event. With that in mind, I think I will be playing the week as usual with the outright picks below, and daily picks being posted throughout the week.
ATP Rotterdam
It is actually a surprise, and shows a lot of intention for the 2012 season, that Roger Federer will be taking part in this event this season. The former World Number 1 has already declared his ambition to get the top position back and he will know that he has half a chance if he can increase his schedule and win a few more events. With Novak Djokovic having a tonne of points to defend this year up until the US Open, winning events will help reduce the gap between himself and Federer, while the Number 2 position could also be up for grabs.
Federer has been given a fairly straightforward draw and could have no real complaints about that, so it is no surprise to see him as a short favourite to win the event.
There are a couple of tough looking encounters to negotiate, but I would expect Federer to get through against Nicolas Mahut, Mikhail Youzhny, Alexandr Dolgopolov and Richard Gaquet, with the latter two most likely to cause the most problems.
While I have no doubt that Federer is coming to Holland with the intention of winning (why else would he take part in an event he has mostly missed over the years?), I still think it is a little risk to back him at the short odds being offered.
Instead I am going to look at the bottom half of the draw and Number 2 seed at the event, Tomas Berdych- the big Czech player will not be facing the change of surface that Federer is having played in the Davis Cup on an indoor hard court, and he has started magnificently well this season after an inconsistent and disappointing 2011.
Berdych reached the Quarter Final at the Australian Open and pushed Rafael Nadal heavily in that loss, while following that up with a win at the indoor tournament in Marseille last week. He has been in very solid form and should enjoy playing on the courts here in Rotterdam, although he will have a couple of tough tests in his path to the Final.
The big man has a potentially awkward match with Marcos Baghdatis in the 2nd Round that could cause one or two problems, but Berdych has won 3 of their last 4 meetings and I think he is playing at a much higher level than the Cypriot at the moment.
The biggest problem, however, could come in the form of Juan Martin Del Potro, who is seeded to meet Berdych in the Semi Final. The Argentine had won the last two meetings with Berdych, although suffering a number of injuries since then and he has also been given a tough opening match with Michael Llodra who plays his best tennis indoors.
With that tough opener in mind, I think Berdych looks a decent choice to win his second tournament of the season, especially at the decent looking 5.50 being offered at Bet365.
ATP San Jose
A small field has got together on the American hard courts in San Jose, being led by Gael Monfils and Andy Roddick, both players that look a little vulnerable to me at the top of the market.
Gael Monfils has all the talent in the World, but he is infuriating at times and it is no wonder he has only won 4 career titles and struggles to maintain a presence in the top 10. On paper, it looks like Monfils has been presented with a great opportunity to make it through to the Final here, as he receives a 'bye' in the 1st Round, and then plays a Qualifier before a tough, but winnable, Quarter Final against Ryan Harrison.
However, the biggest danger to Monfils could come from the up and coming Milos Raonic of Canada, a player that had a break out season last year and is looking to push on this while defending his title here.
Raonic is a definite top 20 player in the making and could easily break the top 10 if he can find some consistency in his game and he has already secured a title in Chennai this season. The Canadian is still playing in their Davis Cup tie, but he has been given a 'bye' through the 1st Round and will not have to play here until Wednesday.
He has a tough looking game with Kevin Anderson in the Quarter Final, but I think he will fancy his chances of defending his title here. Raonic lost his only meeting with Monfils on an indoor hard court in 3 sets in Sweden, but that was a close match and he could easily reverse that result on a court he enjoyed playing on in 2011.
The bottom half of the draw is a little harder to separate as there are a number of players that have a few question marks to answer. Andy Roddick is the top player in this half by seeds, but I would be keen to see how he has recovered from the injury that forced him out of the Australian Open last month.
Sam Querrey would have been of interest if he had not been returning from an injury plagued 2011, while Julien Benneteau is another vulnerable seed.
One player who could come of the section is Radek Stepanek, although he is clearly a player coming towards the end of his career. Stepanek helped the Czech Republic to a win over Italy in the Davis Cup and has enjoyed plenty of success in these type of tournaments in the States in the past, including winning a 500 event in Washington last season.
I just think his price is a touch short considering he has not had the best start to the 2012 season, although his draw is decent.
However, the winner looks set to come out of the top half of the draw for me, and Milos Raonic seems to fit the bill in terms of consistency, ability to win on these courts and motivation.
ATP Sao Paulo
The Number 1 seed at the event is Nicolas Almagro and I think he can may hay from this position. He has been playing in the Davis Cup for Spain, but will be given a 'bye' in the 1st Round here so will not have to take to the court until Wednesday at the earliest.
That time will enable Almagro to hopefully get rid of any jetlag from the trip to Brazil from Europe and I think he can go all the way through to the Final, even if that means beating a couple of big obstacles in the way.
The Spaniard shouldn't have too many problems in the 2nd Round, but a potential Quarter Final against the in-form Carlos Berlocq is a worry, before a likely Semi Final with Fernando Verdasco.
Almagro has a winning record against Berlocq and would fancy his chances against him on a clay court, while he has beaten Verdasco in 2 of their last 3 matches. The latter is also in horrible form after a poor 2011 and he may not have the confidence to see off Almagro if it turns into a close encounter.
The bottom half of the draw has some very interesting players, although you could put a question mark beside a few of the names we see. Juan Carlos Ferrero was showing signs of physical incapability while playing for Spain so it hard to imagine him winning 5 matches in a row to take this tournament, while Thomaz Bellucci has been out of form although he could be inspired by playing in front of his own supporters.
David Nalbandian would be an interesting player with the right draw, but he too will be coming over from Europe without the benefit of having a 'bye' in the 1st Round. Nalbandian has also been very inconsistent over the last 12 months and is always susceptible to a pull out through injury.
The Argentine will also run into Gilles Simon in the 2nd Round and it just looks like a tough path through to the Final for him. Nalbandian would be a dangerous opponent for Almagro if he got to the Final as he would be match hardened, but the Spaniard has won 2 of their 3 meetings on clay courts and should be able to beat him at this stage of their respective careers.
MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Tomas Berdych @ 6.50 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Milos Raonic @ 4.50 Stan James (1 Unit) Just as I was about to place this pick, I noticed that Raonic has pulled out of the 4th Rubber in the Davis Cup tie with France and is suffering with a knee issue that could rule him out of this tournament... PICK CANCELLED and I won't be picking another player in the tournament now.
Nicolas Almagro @ 4.33 Stan James (1 Unit)
Davis Cup: 2-3, - 2.4 Units (10 Units Staked, - 24% yield)
2012 Season: + 20.88 Units (87 Units Staked, + 24% yield)
2011 Season: + 82.02 Units
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