Tennis Picks 2019 (July 30th)

There are plenty of matches scheduled for Tuesday at the various tournaments being played and you can read my selections from the First Round below.

I have noted that the ATP Washington event will move onto the Second Round on Tuesday too, but those markets have yet to be formulated and any Picks from those matches scheduled for the day will be added to this thread on the day around lunchtime.

At that point I will also update the weekly totals after a mixed start to the week with two of the three underdogs I picked outright losing in the final set. Hopefully Tuesday will prove to be a much more productive day and get this week moved back into the black.


Cori Gauff - 2.5 games v Zarina Diyas: A huge spotlight shone on Cori Gauff at Wimbledon earlier this month as the 15 year old Qualified for the main draw and then reached the second week of the third Grand Slam of the 2019 season. The potential the young American has shown seemed to come to fruition in SW19, but the new expectations and exposure Gauff had means expectations have been raised and her own fanbase has also increased tremendously.

Cori Gauff is still at an age where she is not allowed to join the Tour full time unlike in past years and that means she has to pick and choose her events. It also means it is difficult for Gauff to improve her immediate World Ranking to ensure automatic entry into some of the tournaments to be played this summer, but Gauff was high enough to enter the Washington Qualifiers and made light work of her two opponents to reach the main draw.

Her peak World Ranking came at the end of Wimbledon, but Cori Gauff is almost certainly going to move above that mark as long as she can win at least one match in the main draw in the nation's capital. She is favoured to see off Zarina Diyas, but the veteran is someone that has to be respected in this First Round match.

There have been some solid numbers produced by Diyas on the hard courts in the last couple of years, but she has not been as strong on the surface at the main WTA level in 2019. Zarina Diyas has played well in a couple of ITF events which have seen her reach 17 hard court wins for the season, but only 6 of those have come at this level as the Kazakhstan player has seen her numbers drop on both the serve and the return compared with 2018.

This is only the second top 100 Ranked player that Gauff would have played on the hard courts in 2019 and she was comfortably beaten by Daria Kasatkina in the Second Round in Miami back in March. It has to be a concern when backing her as the favourite as there is limited numbers that we can look at considering the lack of main Tour tennis the young American has played.

We do know that Cori Gauff has a very good serve that should be very effective on the hard courts if Zarina Diyas is not quite up to her best level on the return. The latter has also been beaten by a couple of young, up and coming opponents already on this surface in 2019 although Diyas has only lost one match out of six played against someone Ranked outside the top 100.

I do think Gauff is going to be over-rated by the layers on the form she showed at Wimbledon, but I think this is a good chance for her to come through the First Round in Washington. The veteran won't roll over easily, but Zarina Diyas has lost to some of the younger players on the Tour who are looking to make their step up onto the main Tour level and I think Gauff can add to that list against her.


Monica Puig - 3.5 games v Allie Kiick: There are some really talented players coming through the ranks in American tennis, but Allie Kiick has been given a Wild Card into the Washington main draw despite not really being amongst the players with big expectations on their shoulders. She is Ranked at Number 130, although Kiick would likely surpass her career best mark of Number 126 if she can win this First Round match.

It won't be easy for the American considering the lack of tennis she has played at this level. Allie Kiick was beaten in the opening Qualifying Rounds in Brisbane, Indian Wells and Miami and also failed to get through the Qualifiers to reach the Australian Open main draw.

A couple of solid runs at the level below the main WTA Tour would have given Kiick some belief, but now she faces a quality operator in Monica Puig in the First Round in Washington.

To be honest this has not been a great season for Puig who won the Olympic Gold Medal on a hard court in 2016. In each of the last three seasons Puig has produced at least 22 wins on the hard courts, but she is 4-7 in 2019 and her service numbers are considerably down on the standards she has set between 2016 and 2018.

Even the return of serve is slightly down on her numbers, but Puig has felt the pressure of not being to get through her service games as effectively as she has previously. It does make her a vulnerable player to back, especially as she has not played any competitive tennis since going out in the Second Round at Wimbledon, but the Puerto Rican should be happy with the match up here.

The Allie Kiick return could be a big weapon for her if the upset is going to be secured, but I also expect her own serve to be challenged by Monica Puig. The key for the latter is to not give her opponent too much confidence by making a slow start in this match and as long as she can avoid doing that, I think Puig can win and cover in this one.


Donna Vekic - 4.5 games v Misaki Doi: At 23 years old it may be something of a surprise to read that I think Donna Vekic needs to start making serious inroads with her career if she is going to fulfil the potential so many believed she had. It does feel like Vekic has been on the Tour forever, but there might not be a big window for her to develop into a top 10 player with a new crop of talented youngsters making the headlines in 2019.

The Croatian is playing arguably her best tennis on the hard courts in her career and she did reach a peak Ranking last month, although the Donna Vekic fans will be disappointed that their player has not been able to crack the top 20 yet.

There has been a clear improvement in the level of performance produced by Vekic in each of the last four years. Her serve has been one that has produced a higher percentage of points on both the first and second serve in each of the past four seasons and Vekic has also improved the percentage of points won against the opponent's serve in each of those years too.

Donna Vekic is winning 46% of return points on the hard courts in 2019 and that is the kind of returning which should put plenty of pressure on Misaki Doi. The Japanese left hander has been pretty average on the hard courts in 2019 and was hammered by Vekic when these players met in Acapulco earlier this year.

A lot of the positives have come against players much lower down the Rankings, but Misaki Doi is only 2-6 on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents in 2019. The serve is not as effective in those matches, but the real slippage comes on the return of serve and I do think Donna Vekic is going to be someone that should be able to run through the majority of her service games without being under immense pressure.

It happened when they met in Acapulco where Vekic did not face a break point in her dominant win over Doi. On that day the Croatian also won 53% of return points played and I think she will have the edge in this one on both sides of the court which should give Donna Vekic a chance to win and cover in this First Round match.

I would be surprised if Vekic only loses three games again, but I think she will still do enough to cover the mark set by the layers.


Miomir Kecmanovic - 1.5 games v Alexei Popyrin: These two players both turn 20 years old in the next month and both have entered the top 100 of the World Rankings thanks to some positive performances in 2019. Both Miomir Kecmanovic and Alexei Popyrin have played plenty of tennis on the hard courts on the main ATP Tour, but it is the Serbian who has perhaps been the more consistent.

I backed Kecmanovic a couple of times with success last week and I do believe he is rightly favoured in this First Round match. That isn't a disrespect to Popyrin who reached the Quarter Final in Atlanta last week along with Kecmanovic, but it is Kecmanovic who has been the more consistent player of the two.

Both have played a fair few matches off the main Tour, but there is enough data to take away from their performances in hard court matches at the highest level. The serve has been key for both Kecmanovic and Popyrin and I expect it is going to be an important part of their success or failure on Tuesday too.

Miomir Kecmanovic has held 85% of his service games played on the hard courts in main Tour events, while Alexei Popyrin is at 83%. The narrow edge also belongs to Kecmanovic as far as service points are concerned having won 67% of the points played behind his serve compared with 66% for Popyrin.

Where the match could be won and lost is the success the two players can have on the return of serve with break point chances expected to be few and far between in hot conditions in Washington. This is an area where Kecmanovic has had a significant edge over Popyrin having broken in 21% of return games on the surface compared with the Australian's number of 15%.

You can't always factor in how a player will perform on the break points, especially when there are not expected to be a host of them either way, but the slightly more productive return of Kecmanovic could be the key to the outcome of this match. It will likely be close and I would not be that surprised if three sets are needed, but I will back the slight favourite to cover in this one.


Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 games v Steve Johnson: On the face of things it is quite stunning to see Grigor Dimitrov outside of the top 50 of the World Rankings, but it says a lot about how his last eighteen months have gone. Another upset last week saw Dimitrov beaten in the First Round in Atlanta, and he really has become a player that I will not back too often as he is over-rated by the layers.

In saying that I do think he could be potentially under-rated in this First Round match against Steve Johnson. The two players have met six times on the Tour and it is Grigor Dimitrov who has won four of those matches, which also includes winning their last three matches on the hard courts.

The last of those was in 2017 and things are much different for Dimitrov these days, although his numbers on the hard courts in 2019 suggests he should have had better than a 6-4 record that he holds. In 2018 the Bulgarian won 16 matches on the hard courts, but he won a fewer percentage of points played behind both serve and return than Dimitrov has in 2018. That suggests he is not playing the big points as well as he should be when seeing he is holding 81% of his service games compared with 83% last year, but he has been much more successful when it comes to breaking an opponent's serve.

The return game is going to be tested by American Steve Johnson who has surprisingly chosen to play in Los Cabos rather than Washington this week. Johnson is playing his first hard court match since the Miami Masters in March and he is just 4-7 on the surface this year, although Johnson has not been playing as poorly as that losing record would suggest.

The American has held 83% of his return games, but Johnson's struggles on the return of serve continues to blight him. Steve Johnson has won 33% of return points played and he has broken in just 15% of return games played compared with Grigor Dimitrov who is at 39% and 25% in those categories respectively.

It is that edge on the return which makes me favour Dimitrov in this match and in their past meetings on the hard courts we have seen the Bulgarian hold 89% of his service games compared with Johnson at 75%. That might not seem a huge difference, but it is significant enough to give Grigor Dimitrov the edge in this one.

He is a vulnerable favourite when you consider the inconsistent results Dimitrov has earned all season, but I think he can edge out Steve Johnson here. I will look for him to cover in very hot conditions in Los Cabos on Tuesday in this First Round match.


Kyle Edmund - 3.5 games v Lloyd Harris: Injuries have been blighting Kyle Edmund's season and it was a factor in his defeat at Wimbledon to Fernando Verdasco when blowing a 2-0 lead in sets. He has had a few weeks to recover and get ready for the hard court season as Edmund looks to reverse his slip down the World Rankings and receiving a bye into the Second Round at Washington means he has had a few more days to get used to the hot conditions at this event.

Having a bye does mean that Edmund is facing an opponent who has the confidence of winning a First Round match and Lloyd Harris will be looking to take advantage of the British player if he is not at 100%.

Kyle Edmund has been able to play some strong hard court tennis in 2019, although his best result has been winning a Challenger event played at Indian Wells at the end of February. When he has played at the main Tour level Edmund has pretty consistent kind of results on the surface with a strong hold percentage but perhaps not being as strong on the return of serve as he would like.

However he should have the edge over Lloyd Harris who has not had as strong a year on the surface as he may have expected, especially as much of his time is still spent below the main Tour level. The South African came from a set behind to beat Ricardas Berankis in the First Round to improve to 2-4 in hard court matches on the ATP Tour, but Harris has only been holding in 63% of service games played and that number is not that much better at 78% overall in 2019.

Like Edmund, Harris is not the best returner on the surface and I do think the British player's superior serve can be the difference on the day. These two players met earlier in the season and it was Edmund who dominated the match despite needing three sets to beat Harris. The difference in serve proved to be the big factor on the day and I think the same may happen in Washington on Tuesday.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Karen Khachanov: At 34 years old you would have to guess that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's best days are now behind him, but he should be able to vastly improve his current World Ranking in the weeks and months ahead. There are very few points for Tsonga to defend from 2018 and he is playing well enough to at least make an impact at the next few events to push up the Rankings from his Number 70 spot.

He was a solid First Round winner on Monday and Tsonga is back in action on Tuesday as a slight underdog in a virtual pick 'em Second Round match against Karen Khachanov. These two players have met twice before, but not since 2017, and Tsonga will be looking for a third win over the young, improving Russian.

Karen Khachanov has seen his numbers drop significantly from the level produced on the hard courts in 2018 compared with 2019. He is just 7-7 in matches on the surface, while Khachanov has seen his percentage of games held behind serve drop from 88% to 83%. The Russian has also seen the return of serve decline with breaks earned in 22% of return games in 2018 dropping to 17% in 2019.

Now he has to face an opponent in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who has been able to produce some big serving and who can expose some of the limitations Khachanov has had on the return of serve. The Frenchman is also a fairly limited returner, but he may have the edge on the serve which can be the difference when it comes to what looks like being a close match.

It can't be ignored that Tsonga is 0-3 on the hard courts against top 20 Ranked opponents in 2019, although he has only faced Daniil Medvedev (twice) and Novak Djokovic. Both of those players are significantly better returners than Khachanov though and I think Tsonga will enjoy this kind of match up a bit more with the aggression coming from the other side of the net meaning points are going to be relatively short.

This Second Round match going the distance would not be a surprise, but I think Tsonga may have the edge with the match under his belt in these conditions. In each of the last two seasons, Karen Khachanov has lost his first hard court match played between Wimbledon and the US Open and a strong serving day from Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will give him a chance to add to that run here.

MY PICKS: Cori Gauff - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-3, - 3.60 Units (8 Units Staked, - 45% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (July 29th)

Leaving last week with a positive number was a surprise considering how the week had developed and it keeps the Tennis Picks chugging along in 2019. Being able to add to what has been a successful season is a good thing and this week we move on to more events ahead of the really big hard court events that take place in early August.

Those events in Canada and Cincinnati are the big warm up events for the top names on the Tour as we approach the final Grand Slam of the 2019 season at the US Open in New York City. That Slam begins in just under a month from now, but there is quite a bit of tennis to get through even though Novak Djokovic announced he won't be playing too much warm up tennis ahead of the US Open.


This week the Tour moves to Washington, San Jose, Los Cabos and Kitzbuhel with the last of those the only one being played on the clay courts. The rest of the tournaments are hard court events and there are a number of players who have shifted from the clay of Umag, Bastad and Hamburg to the hard courts so that is something to be aware of this week.

With the differing time zones of the various events being played, it does mean that the thread is going to have some selections added to it after it has been posted. Those selections will mainly be from Los Cabos and San Jose which are being played at least seven hours behind the London time zone so markets and order of players will be coming out much later than the ones for Kitzbuhel or Washington.


I am looking for a more consistent week than the last one, although I am always pleased if a winning record is produced. That is the minimum I look for in each week as I look for my own momentum to take into the final Grand Slam of the season which begins at the end of next month.

Monday is usually a quiet day compared with Tuesday in these weeks- there are some First Round matches scheduled for Monday, but the majority of them will be played the following day. I do have some selections from the Monday offerings though which can be read below.

I have also updated the season totals at the bottom of this thread.


Lorenzo Sonego v Federico Delbonis: He might have reached a career high Ranking ahead of Wimbledon, but Lorenzo Sonego has not been able to build on that in the last month. A First Round loss in Gstaad last week means the Italian has actually lost his last six matches on the main Tour on the clay courts and it does make Lorenzo Sonego a hard player to back.

However I do think he can find a way to get back to winning ways when he faces Federico Delbonis in the First Round in Kitzbuhel. He has shown better form than Sonego over the last month with a Challenger title secured as well as a run to the Semi Final in Bastad and a tight loss to Alexander Zverev in Hamburg last week.

On the pure numbers you would have to say that Delbonis deserves his spot as the favourite as well as the fact that Sonego has been on the losing run on the clay courts at the main ATP level. The Argentinian has been holding in 76% of his service games played on the clay courts while he has broken in 29% of return games and it is the success on the return that does give him an edge in this one.

While Lorenzo Sonego is a very good server who can build pressure with that shot, he has struggled to breaking in just 19% of return games played on the clay courts. It is a big difference between the two players, but Sonego has been much more comfortable when he has faced Delbonis.

These two players have met twice on the clay courts since September 2018 with the last of those matches coming earlier this year. In those matches the Lorenzo Sonego serve has been the bigger weapon with 95% of his service games being held compared with Federico Delbonis being down at 75%. The Italian has also kept Delbonis under pressure in those return games with 42% of the points won on the Delbonis serve and I do think Sonego will feel his serve can keep his opponent feeling the pressure in this one too.

I think this is going to be a close match and it looks to be one that Sonego will feel comfortable with. That makes the underdog appealing considering how he has played against Federico Delbonis and a strong serving day will give the Italian every chance of earning the upset.


Hugo Dellien v Roberto Carballas Baena: Coming through the Qualifiers to make the main draws of Hamburg and Kitzbuhel will certainly give Hugo Dellien some confidence, but he has not been able to have a deep run in any of the events played since Wimbledon concluded. The draws have not been that kind to the Bolivian who has been beaten by Juan Ignacio Londero in Bastad (who reached the Final there, and then Nikoloz Basilashvili in Hamburg (who won the title there).

Both defeats have been competitive enough to believe Dellien is feeling pretty good about his game and he is looking to surpass his career best World Number 74 position which was earned earlier this year. It will mean Hugo Dellien needs to have a big week to put some strong Ranking points in the bank, but this looks to be another difficult early match in the main draw.

Hugo Dellien has been very comfortable on the clay courts with some strong results, but the majority of those have come under the main Tour. The same can be said for Roberto Carballas Baena, although back to back Quarter Final runs in Bastad and Gstaad will make the Spaniard feel pretty good about his level going into this event.

On the numbers the slight edge has to be given to Carballas Baena who has held onto his serve in 76% of games played on the clay courts in 2019, while Hugo Dellien is at 73%. There is also a slight edge in terms of the return on this surface with Carballas Baena breaking in 33% of return games compared with Dellien being at 32%, but the percentage of points won by the two players are virtually identical.

It is the Bolivian who may hold the mental edge having beaten Carballas Baena in Rio de Janeiro earlier this year in a match where he created three times as many break points as his opponent. Roberto Carballas Baena really struggled with his serve on that day and I do think Hugo Dellien could frank that win having put a couple of wins on the board in the Qualifiers to become accustomed with the conditions in Kitzbuhel.

With very similar numbers, the value seems to be with Hugo Dellien here and I am going to back the underdog to win.


Ivo Karlovic v Bjorn Fratangelo: No one will be doubting that Ivo Karlovic is on the downward slope of his career, but he still possesses a big serve which will give him chances in matches. That is especially the case in matches like this one in the First Round in Washington, and I am not entirely sure Karlovic should be the underdog.

He might be 40 years old, but Ivo Karlovic has held 95% of his service games played on the hard courts and that is a number that surpasses the 2016, 2017 and 2018 season totals on the surface. The return of serve continues to be an issue for Karlovic, but he will be hoping he can build some scoreboard pressure in this one by trying to run through his service games and make Bjorn Fratangelo feel like he is serving all the time.

This has been a difficult season for Fratangelo who has held 81% of the service games he has played on the hard courts while he has broken in 18% of return games. The American will receive the support from the fans, but he has also struggled in his two previous matches against Karlovic and will need some luck to get through this match.

Ivo Karlovic has held in 90% of his service games played against Bjorn Fratangelo in their two previous matches. At the same time the Croatian has broken in just under 20% of return games played and I think that is a significant edge considering the last match between them was less than twelve months ago.

The feeling is that Karlovic can use his serve to edge out Fratangelo in this one and I am not sure he should be the underdog in the match. At the prices I will back Ivo Karlovic in this opening Round match in Washington.

MY PICKS: Lorenzo Sonego @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Hugo Dellien @ 2.37 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 117.55 Units (1389 Units Staked, + 8.46% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (August 3rd)

I have begun writing this post out on Thursday, but the lack of angles from the ATP Kitzbuhel Semi Final matches meant I was always going to wait until Friday before posting any Tennis Picks.

Looking back at the overnight results from Thursday and it has become clear that this week has been turned around effectively after opening up with a 0-4 start.

Since then the Tennis Picks have gone 13-3 to move this week into a positive position, but I do want to put a neat bow on things by making sure there is something to add to the season totals. We still have a couple of days this week before the first of the back to back Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati so there is still work to be done.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: If you're looking for a player to be a genuine contender for the US Open title at the end of this month and want to oppose the favourites then I think Juan Martin Del Potro could be the man you want on your side.

He is currently at double digit quotes to win a second US Open title but that could shorten significantly if he has a strong time on the hard courts over the next three weeks. The Argentinian has already showed how good he can be on this surface by winning titles in Acapulco and Indian Wells already this season, while Del Potro backed those weeks up by reaching the Miami Semi Final.

Being injury free is always the question mark around Del Potro these days, but he is coming into this month as healthy as he has looked all season and is also closing in on his highest ever World Ranking. There also has been no suggestions he has arrived in Los Cabos to only enjoy the beach with a couple of dominating wins, although Damir Dzumhur provides a tougher challenge.

Even then Del Potro has some stunning numbers on the hard courts in 2018 and his return game has been of a similar level to when he won the US Open back in 2009. Those will put some real pressure on Dzumhur who has not been at his best on the hard courts in 2018 and I do think the serve is going to be under attack for much of this match.

Del Potro has won both previous matches against Dzumhur and he has been strong in both of those wins. I anticipate he will have the majority of break point chances in this match and I like Del Potro to cover a big looking number on his way to the Final here.


David Goffin - 1.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: On Thursday I backed David Goffin to cover this same number against another talented youngster coming up on the Tour and he managed to do that very comfortably. I have little doubt it will be tougher for him when he faces Stefanos Tsitsipas, but I will look for the Belgian to do that again.

There is no doubt that Tsitsipas is developing in a manner which will make him a threat to win many Grand Slam titles in the years ahead and he has all the makings of a future World Number 1. However Tsitsipas is still a work in progress and has to get more out of his return game if he is going to take the next step in his very young career.

The serve is a huge weapon for the Greek player though and it is one that can build pressure on opponents when Tsitsipas is at his best. Winning two matches in Washington already suggests he is near his top level especially when you look at the way Tsitsipas has beaten Jared Donaldson and James Duckworth but this is a significant step up in class.

David Goffin might not have the eye-catching serve that some players have, but it has been good enough for him and he is holding almost 80% of his service games on the hard courts. That should be a number he can replicate against Tsitsipas who has struggled on the return, while that also should give Goffin a chance to go on the attack when in his own return games.

The Belgian has a very good return game and I do think he can put some pressure on Tsitsipas in this Quarter Final from that side of things. I expect Goffin to really try and get after the second serve and I like his chances of beating Tsitsipas in a tight match.


Johanna Konta - 3.5 games v Elise Mertens: The Australian Open was a huge tournament for Elise Mertens who reached the Semi Final Down Under, but playing on the hard courts has been much more difficult for her since then.

Since that stunning run through the draw which came up a little short, Mertens' numbers have really declined and it is perhaps no surprise that she is just 4-5 on this surfaced since February.

Now she has to face a confident Johanna Konta who backed up her crushing of Serena Williams with another strong performance in the Second Round. Konta inflicted the worst loss in Serena's career and she is a player that has had considerable success on the hard courts over the last couple of years to believe she could round into some good form over the next month despite a disappointing 2018 so far.

To be fair to Konta, her numbers on the hard courts have been very similar to the last couple of years but she has not been able to win the close matches to prolong her run in tournaments. The win over Serena Williams may be the shot of confidence Konta needed to make those close losses turn into close wins and I think she is the superior hard court player in this match.

These players met at the Miami Premier Event earlier this season and it was Konta who crushed Mertens for the loss of just three games. I doubt it is as straight-forward as that again, but I do think Konta can keep things rolling in San Jose by winning this match and covering the number.


Venus Williams - 1.5 games v Maria Sakkari: I picked Timea Babos to beat Maria Sakkari on Thursday and that has to be the worst pick I have made this week as Babos won a single game in a heavy loss.

However I am not willing to knock my theory on the head that Sakkari is massively overachieving in terms of her results at the moment and her numbers don't back her up.

I have to give her some credit for protecting the second serve as she has done, but Sakkari's return numbers are down and now she faces Venus Williams who is still playing at a decent level. The American is clearly in decline these days but she has managed to produce a solid 10-4 record on the hard courts and the serve remains a decent weapon for her.

The key to this match is that Venus Williams is still returning much better than Sakkari and I don't think the latter will be able to get away with too many second serves in this one. All credit to Sakkari for putting the wins together as she has, but I do want to oppose her here even if I am on the wrong side of things for a second day in a row.

I was expecting Venus Williams to be a much stronger favourite than is the case and I will look for the veteran to get this done and cover the number.

MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-7, + 9.64 Units (40 Units Staked, + 24.10% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (August 2nd)

Monday and Tuesday were disappointing, but Wednesday has proved to be a lot better for the Tennis Picks to begin to turn this week around.

At the time of writing there are still a couple of matches to be completed in the ATP Washington Second Round which will really determine how positive this week has begun to look, but the first four Tennis Picks made on Wednesday have all returned winners.

I was a little lucky with Kyle Edmund covering against Andy Murray despite losing the match, but the other three winners were pretty much deserved even if a couple of the players missed out on winning the match in much easier fashion than it turned out to be. That doesn't matter to me when it comes to finding winners, especially where those players have deservedly moved through, and I have something to build on this week to try and add some positive numbers to the season totals before the move to Canada as the Masters/Premier Events in Toronto and Montreal begin next week.


Timea Babos v Maria Sakkari: This is a Second Round match from San Jose as the Quarter Final line up is put together for Friday and I am going to back the underdog to win this match.

The layers are not finding it easy to split Timea Babos and Maria Sakkari, but I do think the latter is a touch overrated thanks to some stand out wins on the Tour in 2018. Maria Sakkari has been a strong winner against some of the best players on the Tour, but her numbers suggest it is an unsustainable level that she is producing and Babos is a very competent hard court player that could edge her out.

One of the stand out issues Sakkari has had on the hard courts is she has struggled with her return this season compared to the last couple of years. That could be put to the test against a decent server like Babos and I think the Hungarian has an edge here.

I also expect Babos to have enough success against the Sakkari second serve to have every chance of securing the upset in this match.

Babos has also shown herself to be a dangerous player once she puts a couple of wins together in the same tournament and that has especially been the case on the hard courts in 2018. This is a player who has dropped off the standard she set for herself in 2015 and 2016, but Babos has shown signs she is getting back to that kind of level and I expect that will be too much for Sakkari who is a good player, but one who has been overachieving in 2018.


Venus Williams - 4.5 games v Heather Watson: There have been definite signs of slippage in the Venus Williams game in 2018 and I do wonder if the former World Number 1 has missed her best chance to add another Grand Slam to her collection in 2017.

Venus Williams was able to reach the Final of the Australian Open and Wimbledon as well as the US Open Semi Final but she won none of those tournaments and 2018 has been much more difficult all around. At least a move back onto the hard courts can give the elder Williams sister a chance to put some wins together and rebuild her confidence.

In general her hard court numbers have been pretty solid in 2018 and that definitely gives Venus Williams the edge over Heather Watson who has slipped outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings.

Watson began 2018 with a strong run in Hobart having come through the Qualifiers and eventually make the Quarter Final of that tournament. That has helped her produce an 8-10 record for the season, but Watson is just 1-7 since the end of her run in Hobart and her numbers and her numbers have taken a hit right across the board.

The win over Claire Lui in the First Round at least ended her run of losses on the hard courts, but Watson is now facing a much bigger challenge. You have to factor in the fact that Venus Williams is playing her first hard court tournament of the summer, but even that may not be enough to see Watson challenge the American here.


Denis Istomin + 2.5 games v Maximilian Marterer: The clay courts have not been very kind to Denis Istomin in 2018, but his numbers suggested that he had been very unfortunate not to have put some wins up. After losing all 9 matches played on the clay courts in 2018, Istomin has found some form in Kitzbuhel where he has come through the Qualifiers.

Adding a couple more wins in the main draw means Istomin has reached a Quarter Final on the surface and I think he has a better chance of the upset against Maximilian Marterer than the layers believe.

Istomin is serving effectively on the surface although there is no doubt he would like to be a really more dangerous on the return of serve. His actual percentage of points won against the serve are not that bad, but Istomin has not been able to convert the break points he has created and that has put some pressure on the serve.

Even then his return numbers are better looking than those that Marterer has produced and his serve has been a little more solid on this surface. Of course Marterer did reach the Fourth Round at the French Open, but that may have influenced his prices and he is winning less points on serve and return in terms of a percentage than Istomin.

With the momentum the latter has built up he should be confident he can secure an upset, but I will take the games available in case of a tight third set defeat for Istomin.


Jaume Munar - 1.5 games v Taro Daniel: You have got to be impressed with the way both of these players have been playing on the clay courts over the last six weeks. Both Jaume Munar and Taro Daniel have had considerable success on the clay courts at the Challenger level and they have bought that onto the main Tour too.

Even then you would have to say both Munar and Daniel would have hoped for more wins and they also were beaten by the same Roberto Bautista Agut in back to back matches in Gstaad last week.

The key to the match could be how well Daniel serves- he has been producing some of his best tennis of his career as far as the serve has been going and that has been especially true on the clay courts. However this time he is facing a strong returner in Munar who has broken opponents very quickly and who will look to force Daniel to beat him from the back of the court.

Munar may be the more comfortable on the clay courts, but I don't think Daniel will be too scared of having to break the Spaniard's serve considering it is a weapon that can be attacking. He may also have confidence from having beaten Munar in the Barcelona Qualifiers around fifteen months ago but Munar looks an improved player now and I think he edges out Daniel this time.


Cameron Norrie v Adrian Mannarino: This is only the second pick I am making from Los Cabos this week and I am backing the fast improving Cameron Norrie to get the better of his fellow left-handed opponent in Adrian Mannarino in this Quarter Final.

Norrie had a strong run in Atlanta last week and his College experience in the United States should mean he is very comfortable on the hard courts. His numbers have backed that up in 2018 with a slight improvement in his service hold percentage and points won behind serve percentage despite the step up to more regular time on the ATP Tour.

His returning is decent enough on the hard courts too and the results have been good over the last couple of weeks which will have given him confidence.

Adrian Mannarino cannot be underestimated considering all of the veteran experience he has and the Frenchman is a very competent hard court player in his own right. However his returning numbers have taken a hit from previous seasons and that could be the difference in what is expected to be a tight Quarter Final to be played on Thursday.

Those returning numbers have shown a sharp decline when facing opponents Ranked in the top 100 and Cameron Norrie can make another Semi Final on the hard courts this week.


David Goffin - 1.5 games v Francis Tiafoe: The ATP Washington event has had plenty of problems with rain this week and that may be the case on Thursday too so don't be surprised if this match is not in a position to take to the courts.

However at some point David Goffin and Francis Tiafoe will have to play and I am giving the edge to the Belgian in what looks a potentially very good match.

There has been a big improvement from Tiafoe this year and he looks a player that will make some serious strides up the World Rankings in the next twelve months. The American has moved into the top 50 of the World Rankings but there is still some more room for improvement as the 20 year old continues to show some inconsistencies which won't be a massive surprise.

His serve has improved, but Tiafoe is still working on getting the best out of his return game although he may have a few more chances against the David Goffin serve. In saying that, Goffin has been able to look after his serve well enough on the hard courts in 2018 and he will be all the better for battling past Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the Second Round.

Goffin has not been in the best form since the end of the French Open, but he will be happy to be back on the hard courts and I think he will edge out Tiafoe in what could be a very fun match to watch once the rain clears away.

MY PICKS: Timea Babos @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Denis Istomin + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Jaume Munar - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
David Goffin - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-5, + 4.68 Units (26 Units Staked, + 18% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (August 1st)

After the glorious British summer we have been experiencing, and continue to experience, it is frustrating to see all the rain in Washington which is taking its toll on the ATP and WTA event being played there.

To be fair, Tuesday was a much clearer day which has allowed the majority of matches to be completed, but there are expected to be more rain delays on Wednesday and the rest of the week there.

At least the other events being played in Kitzbuhel, Los Cabos and San Jose look to be getting through the schedule as they would like ahead of the move to Canada and the first of two Masters events to be played before the US Open commences.


It has been a frustrating time for the players, but also a frustrating time for the Tennis Picks which opened the week with a 0-4 start. Thankfully there were signs of getting things turned back around later on Tuesday with three winners from four matches played in Washington, and we also have Alexander Zverev 6-2 up in the first set against Malek Jaziri although I hate matches that have the rain break which can see momentum shift very quickly.

Wednesday offers up a large amount of Second Round matches and the selections I have made can be read below.


Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 games v Dennis Novak: After getting through the tough Qualifiers and reaching the Third Round at Wimbledon for a career best performance, Dennis Novak will be a more familiar face in his home tournament in Kitzbuhel these days.

However it is clear that there is still some big improvements the 24 year old can make if he is really going to become a feature on the main Tour in the years ahead. The World Ranking points earned at Wimbledon and winning a First Round match here will give Novak the chance to enter bigger tournaments in the months ahead, although he still has work to do to crack the top 100.

The performances on clay have not been too bad in 2018, but Novak is going to be challenged by someone who is playing very well on the surface and I think Dusan Lajovic will be able to edge him out in straight sets.

Novak will be the new Austrian Number 2 at the end of this week, but his numbers on the clay are not as strong as Lajovic's and that is despite the latter playing mainly on the ATP Tour compared with Novak's time spent on the Challenger circuit. Lajovic has been very strong behind his serve and he has made a small improvement on his return of serve which has paid off for him.

Has Lajovic been overachieving? Maybe a little bit, but his form has remained strong going back onto the clay courts this past month and I like him to win this with a break more in each set of a straight sets victory.


Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 games v Radu Albot: Winning the first Singles and Doubles titles of his career last week will have given Matteo Berrettini a bunch of confidence, but the question is how much tennis does he have left in the tank?

The fight shown to come back and beat Gilles Simon in the First Round in Kitzbuhel suggests the Italian is not going to roll over for anyone and he did crush Radu Albot on his way to success in Gstaad last week.

Berrettini did not drop a set in Gstaad, but it is playing the Doubles and having success in that tournament too which may have drained the energy levels. That has to be the biggest fear in backing him this week in Kitzbuhel, although Berrettini may feel this is an important time to build up his Ranking points which will offer him direct entry into the Masters events in the months ahead.

Albot did crush Josef Kovalik in the First Round, who had tremendous success last week too, but his clay court numbers are simply not on the level of what Berrettini can produce. The serve is one that the Italian had a lot of success against last week when they played in the First Round in Gstaad and the Italian has a serve of his own which can be very effective for him.

It should be the case at this level and backing Berrettini off the same mark as last week is my selection even with the fatigue issues to consider.


Mischa Zverev - 2.5 games v Tim Smyczek: These two players meet for the second week in a row on the Tour and I think Mischa Zverev has enough to frank the victory he had over Tim Smyczek in Atlanta last week. Even though he needed three sets to get the job done, Zverev was the better player on the day and should really have won much more comfortably than it turned out to be on the scoreboard.

Even then it was relatively straight forward for Zverev who could be in line to face brother Alexander in the next Round if both are able to progress through their Second Round matches on Wednesday.

Smyczek is a solid veteran of the Tour and can blow hot and cold which makes him potentially dangerous for an erratic player like Zverev. The key for the German is going to be how well he can serve on the day with that side of his game struggling on the hard courts so far in 2018, although this time of the season tends to be faster than earlier in the campaign.

He put enough pressure on Smyczek last week to believe in his serve, and Zverev has actually been returning pretty effectively which saw him create 17 break points against the American in Atlanta. That is another match to add to the 2018 calendar when Zverev has produced some of his more effective hard court returning games and could be the key here as he edges out Smyczek for a second week in a row.


Kyle Edmund - 1.5 games v Andy Murray: Most would have read Andy Murray was able to show the grit and determination which has helped him have so much success in his career in the First Round win over McKenzie McDonald in Washington. However Murray himself admitted he will have to be a lot better when he faces Kyle Edmund for the second time during his brief return to the Tour.

When they met on the grass in Eastbourne it was Edmund who dominated Murray and was able to underline his current place as the World Number 1. That is arguably on the weakest surface for Edmund, although the worry for him is that this is the first match back on the hard courts compared with Murray who has the win under his belt.

Edmund didn't have a good time in Indian Wells and Miami earlier this year with losses in his first match at both tournaments, but he is a capable hard court player and right now looks the better of the two Brits.

You can never underestimate Murray and I imagine he has been looking forward to playing Edmund again after being beaten so easily by him at Eastbourne. At this moment I am not sure Murray has enough tennis in his legs to really expect to get the better of Edmund and this is all about getting enough matches into the legs to take into the US Open at the end of the month.

The Edmund serve was a big weapon for him when he beat Murray in Eastbourne and he is a big returner when his eye is in. Again it is the first match on the surface which has to be a concern, but Edmund has that strong run in Australia to help himself ignore the losses in North America and I think he can win this one against the former World Number 1.


Steve Johnson - 2.5 games v Alex De Minaur: It was something of a surprise that Steve Johnson did not enter the Atlanta tournament last week but it may have been a time for the American to rest having won the title in Newport following Wimbledon.

The hard courts should be the surface on which Johnson has his most success and his 9-8 record does not indicate how well he has been performing. There have been some disappointing losses in matches Johnson should have won, but the serve continues to be a big weapon for him and he is returning about as well as ever on this surface.

The return game has always held Johnson back, but the numbers there have been strong enough to think he can get the better of Alex De Minaur in what is going to be their third match of the season.

Both have had a win apiece over the other and those wins have come on home soil for the two players with De Minaur winning in Brisbane and Johnson returning the favour in Irving. The Australian has taken in the hard court event in Atlanta and won a First Round match here which should be factored into things when you think Johnson is returning to the hard courts for the first time in a few months.

De Minaur has some strong 2018 hard court numbers, but the successes came very early in the year when playing in Australia. Since then it has been much tougher for him and there has been a noticeable drop in the service and return numbers since the end of the Australian Open.

That includes the heavy loss to Johnson and I think the latter can use the momentum he built in Newport to make a winning return to the hard courts on Wednesday.


Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: Prior to the injury problems, giving birth, and off court issues relating to custody of her son Victoria Azarenka was one of the top WTA players out there. Many would have assumed she would be leading the way for the next generation of players along with Garbine Muguruza and this match up could have been one which featured in multiple Grand Slam Finals in the years ahead.

Both have had their successes on the Tour, but it has been tough work for Azarenka on her return to the Tour following the clearing of the issues with the father of her baby. Her return has not come with the same discussions as to where she should be Seeded as it has with Serena Williams and that has meant a much tougher return for Azarenka.

She has played well but it is clear that Azarenka has yet to reach anything near the level she could play at when a regular on the Tour. It will come with time, but I think Garbine Muguruza can get the better of her here despite being one of the most erratic top players on the Tour.

The lack of matches since Wimbledon has to be a concern when looking to back Muguruza as is the tendency to blow hot and cold on a week to week basis on the Tour. When the Spaniard is good she is very good though and her numbers on the hard courts have been pretty impressive in 2018 which makes her one of the favourites going into the US Open.

The serve is a key weapon for Muguruza and if she is serving well I would expect her to win this match. While Azarenka is still a quality returner, her own serve can be attacked and so a strong display from Muguruza may be enough to beat the former World Number 1 for the first time.

It should be a quality match in the early hours of Thursday morning, but one I am edging towards Muguruza to get the better of Azarenka in.

MY PICKS: Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-5, - 4.4 Units (16 Units Staked, - 27.5% Yield)