Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Saturday 2nd August)

The Canadian Masters continues through the weekend with Fourth Round action in Toronto and Montreal.

There are some good matches scheduled for Saturday and there are three selections made, which can be read below.

With the majority of the Tennis Picks from Friday being played in the evening in Canada, the weekly totals will be updated and placed in this thread once they have all been concluded.

Casper Ruud v Karen Khachanov: It was not a surprising decision to see Casper Ruud miss the entirety of the grass court season after suffering an injury issue at the French Open. He has been rehabbing for some time now and the Norwegian has returned to the Tour with two solid wins here in Toronto as he has moved through to the Fourth Round.

Casper Ruud will feel his tennis is well suited to the hard courts and he has had plenty of successes at the US Open in the past.

However, he has been set as the underdog in this match against Karen Khachanov and that is something of a surprise.

Of course you have to acknowledge the fact that Casper Ruud has been out of action for some time, but he should have gotten his legs back under him having put two wins on the board. Karen Khachanov has been playing pretty well himself and he did have a solid showing at Wimbledon, which will have boosted the confidence, but the overall hard courts record is just 7-7 for the season.

It has been a particular struggle for the World Number 16 when facing opponents who are Ranked higher than himself.

He has lost all four hard court matches in that spot this season and Karen Khachanov is just 2-8 in those matches over the last twelve months, which is something he is likely going to have to battle against. The serve has been put under pressure by the fact that Khachanov has really struggled with his return against the higher Ranked opponents faced and Casper Ruud will feel he can exploit that fact.

In two previous matches on the Tour, Casper Ruud has been much the better player although the last of those came at the US Open in 2022. Casper Ruud beat Karen Khachanov in the Semi Final of that Grand Slam, and he has been serving well enough in his two wins at the Canadian Masters to be able to edge through this contest.

Marta Kostyuk - 1.5 games v McCartney Kessler: Both of these players have had to dig in and work hard to move through to the Fourth Round in Montreal, but having a day of rest between matches should help.

There are similarities in the performances that Marta Kostyuk and McCartney Kessler have been able to produce on the hard courts and that should lead to a competitive match.

It is McCartney Kessler who has won a title on the surface earlier this season, and she also reached the Final in Austin, but the most recent hard court results have perhaps been a little disappointing. That makes the two wins in this tournament feel important and she will have the confidence to take on an opponent who beat her convincingly at the US Open last year.

Marta Kostyuk has really been struggling for consistency on the hard courts and she has only reached the Quarter Final in one tournament in 2025.

The second serve has been a vulnerability and that is something that McCartney Kessler has to look to attack and try and build the pressure on the World Number 28.

However, the Kostyk first serve seems to have a bigger impact compared with the American's same delivery and it may give the higher Ranked player a few more cheaper points.

She has the slightly superior returning numbers too and Marta Kostyuk may end up getting better of the match, even if she needs three sets to move through.

Elena Rybakina - 4.5 games v Dayana Yastremska: There are still plenty of wins being produced by Elena Rybakina, but she has dropped out of the top ten in the World Rankings. Off court issues have been affecting her for several months and that has really not helped Elena Rybakina to consistently challenge the very best players on the Tour.

Over the coming weeks, Elena Rybakina has a really good chance to reverse the drop in the World Ranking with very few points to defend and she is already doing a good job of that here in Montreal.

Two solid wins have been earned by the World Number 12 and she has been playing at a pretty consistent level on the hard courts, although Semi Final defeats have been a feature of her season on this surface. Underwhelming showings at Indian Wells and Miami would have hurt too, but there is every chance that Elena Rybakina will make it through to the Quarter Final here.

Dayana Yastremska will have plenty to say about that, although she has not been as convincing in her two wins compared with her opponent.

In both victories, the Ukrainian has actually allowed more Break Points to be created against her serve and that can be tough to sustain if she wants to keep winning matches.

At her best, Dayana Yastremska can be an effective server and she will need to do that if she is going to challenge Elena Rybakina. The latter is not always at her best on the return of serve on the hard courts and it has long felt like an area of her tennis that can be improved, but Elena Rybakina can build plenty of scoreboard pressure with her own serve.

That could be key to the outcome of this match as Rybakina looks to beat this opponent for the second time on the Tour.

Earlier this season, Elena Rybakina beat Dayana Yastremska at the Australian Open and it was a relatively comfortable win too. She had been the much stronger server in that match and created almost three times as many Break Points as she faced and the feeling is that Rybakina can do something similar here to edge past the handicap mark set.

MY PICKS: Casper Ruud @ 2.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Marta Kostyuk - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 8-2, + 4.47 Units (10 Units Staked, + 47% Yield)

Paris Olympics Tennis Day 7 Picks 2024 (Friday 2nd August)

The biggest upset of the Paris Olympics as far as the tennis goes has occurred in the women's Semi Final with Iga Swiatek knocked into the Bronze Medal match instead of the Gold.

This is the first defeat the Pole has suffered on these grounds since 2021 and there would have been considerable disappointment that Swiatek has not been able to add the Gold Medal to the French Open titles she has collected in Paris.

Unlike the vast majority of tournaments that tennis players will play, the loss does not mean the end of the event for Iga Swiatek and the Bronze Medal match will be played on Friday. That means little time to get over the defeat, but she has had several more hours to prepare mentally and physically compared with Anna Schmiedlova who was beaten by Donna Vekic in the last Singles match to be played on Day 6.

The men's Semi Final matches are both scheduled for Friday too and there is still hope for the fans that we will get to see Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz on Sunday. The two opponents facing these players will have something to say about that on Friday and both Lorenzo Musetti and Felix Auger-Aliassime will be playing with the confidence of a strong week behind them.

Once again, the losing players will be in action on Saturday when the Bronze Medal match is played, but the main focus for those men playing on Day 7 will be to earn the right to play for the Gold Medal.

Lorenzo Musetti + 3.5 games v Novak Djokovic: They played in the Wimbledon Semi Final and they also met at the French Open in the Third Round so there will be no issues about familiarity with the tennis expected to be seen by Novak Djokovic and Lorenzo Musetti.

It is Novak Djokovic who won the two Grand Slam matches, although Lorenzo Musetti was leading 2-1 in sets in Paris before falling away over the course of four and a half hours. The match was a close one and it is the second time that Musetti has led Novak Djokovic at the French Open by reaching two sets first, although he has not been able to get over the line.

The Semi Final at Wimbledon was a much more routine win for Novak Djokovic, but the clay courts should mean another very tough, competitive match between these players. Lorenzo Musetti played his part in that Semi Final in SW19, but he will feel these courts offer that much more and momentum is with the Italian.

He reached the Final in Umag last week and Lorenzo Musetti has played well in his four wins in this tournament, especially the manner in which he beat Alexander Zverev in the Quarter Final to end the German's hopes of winning consecutive Gold Medals.

While Lorenzo Musetti will expect to be tested by the Novak Djokovic return, he will also be well aware that he has been serving very well in this tournament. It has led to just five breaks of serve given away in four wins in Paris and it is very important for Musetti to make sure he serves well in this one to just stay with the former World Number 1.

Novak Djokovic had also been playing well in the tournament, but there has to be a concern that a prior knee injury has resurfaced having suffered the initial injury here at the French Open. He needed to have the knee checked against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Quarter Final and the Greek player may have missed a trick having led 4-0 in the second set, but somehow losing that 7-6 to fall to yet another defeat to Djokovic.

There is no doubt that the Serb has an aura on the court and that helped him come through a set in which he was second best for much of the time, and that may help him here. No matter how much Lorenzo Musetti has pushed Novak Djokovic, he has mainly ended up on the wrong side of the result and that has to be playing on the mind of the underdog.

However, the Italian should take confidence from the fact he has reached two sets before Novak Djokovic in each of their two previous matches on the Roland Garros grounds. Lorenzo Musetti has also previously beaten Novak Djokovic on a clay court and that will again give him some belief that Tsitsipas was perhaps lacking at the key moments in the Quarter Final.

The potential issue with the Djokovic knee cannot be ignored with little time to rest between the Quarter Final and Semi Final, and Lorenzo Musetti may make use of the games being given to him on the handicap.

MY PICKS: Lorenzo Musetti + 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Olympic Games Update: 7-9, - 6.50 Units (32 Units Staked, - 20.31% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (August 2nd)

Friday is an important day for me personally so this thread will be the last one of the week.

The next Tennis Picks will come from the Canadian Masters which begin this weekend, although my first selections will be made on Monday. I will update the season totals in that thread and that will include the results from this week as I won't be updating the results from Thursday in the Friday thread.

My selections are based from the matches that have already been set for Friday in the Quarter Finals so that means there won't be anything from ATP Washington or ATP Los Cabos where the Friday line up will be completed during the night in the United Kingdom.


Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 games v Casper Ruud: It has been a very productive month for Albert Ramos-Vinolas between the conclusion of Wimbledon and the main tournaments in the US hard court swing beginning this weekend. The Spaniard entered three clay court events being played with the last two being on the main Tour and he has reached two Semi Finals and won a title in Gstaad last week.

He could have perhaps been feeling a little fatigued after playing as much tennis as he has and I think that was part of the reason Ramos-Vinolas struggled through his First Round win over Marton Fucsovics here in Kitzbuhel. After dropping the first set to the Hungarian, Albert Ramos-Vinolas has won six sets in a row in Austria and he has been playing some of his best tennis of 2019 over the last few weeks.

Albert Ramos-Vinolas has held 86% of his service games played on the clay courts since the start of July and he has also found his feet with the return of serve having broken in 33% of return games played. This week Ramos-Vinolas has won 64% of the service points played and he has won 41% of the return points as confidence continues to flow through the Spaniard as he looks for yet another chance to win a title this weekend.

This is not going to be an easy match against Casper Ruud who is very comfortable on the clay courts and whose best results have been on the surface. He has perhaps not been as consistent as Ramos-Vinolas when playing on the clay over the last month, but the Norwegian has been in fine form in Kitzbuhel which has to be respected.

Like Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Casper Ruud has only dropped one set which came in the First Round. His numbers have been considerably better than what he had been producing on the clay over the last three weeks, and that is both on the serve and return, but Ruud has to forget the fact that he has lost all three previous matches against Ramos-Vinolas and all of those have been on the clay courts.

Their match in Madrid in the Qualifiers was very close and Ramos-Vinolas was perhaps a little fortunate to win when you look at the way the first two sets. However he looks to be in confident mood at the moment and I think he can be backed to see off Casper Ruud in this match and he can cover the number in the victory too.


Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: You could have made a case for three of the Semi Finalists in Kitzbuhel, but I am not sure you could say the same for Lorenzo Sonego. The Italian had been on a losing run on the main Tour in clay court matches, but he has battled through a couple of Rounds where it would have taken one or two points to swing against him. A stronger win over Fernando Verdasco in the Quarter Final will be a boost for Sonego's confidence, but now he has to play a home favourite.

For someone who has the kind of clay results that Dominic Thiem has produced in recent years, it is something of a surprise that he has only ever reached one Final in Kitzbuhel and he is yet to win the title here. Prior to this tournament Thiem was only 8-7 in matches in Kitzbuhel, but he has looked to be in decent form in the first two matches he has won in the 2019 edition.

The Austrian is yet to drop a set, but he will feel he can get more out of his serve having held just 78% of the service games he has played in the tournament. It is something of a surprise when you think he has won 68% of the points played behind the serve, but Dominic Thiem has only saved 3 of the 7 break points he has faced and you would think his serve would be capable of protecting those big points a little better.

Lorenzo Sonego has been slightly better at holding serve with 79% of his games being protected so far in Kitzbuhel. However I have to point out he has won 63% of points behind serve so you would have to think he is going to be challenged by Dominic Thiem who has broken in 45% of return games played having won 47% of return points in the two matches he has won.

The return of serve looks to be a big difference between the players as Sonego has only broken in 20% of return games played. That number is only slightly better than his seasonal number on the clay courts and I do think the Italian will find it difficult to get into a lot of the Dominic Thiem service games as long as the favourite does not feel the pressure of trying to reach a home Final for only a second time in his career at this event.

Dominic Thiem is the superior returner and also has the edge when it comes to the serve and I think that should show up on the day. This is a big number if Thiem is not being a little better when it comes to the big points on his own serve, but he should have the majority of chances in this one to get ahead and I think that will see him break down the Italian who has had a surprising week.

MY PICKS: Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2018 (August 2nd)

Monday and Tuesday were disappointing, but Wednesday has proved to be a lot better for the Tennis Picks to begin to turn this week around.

At the time of writing there are still a couple of matches to be completed in the ATP Washington Second Round which will really determine how positive this week has begun to look, but the first four Tennis Picks made on Wednesday have all returned winners.

I was a little lucky with Kyle Edmund covering against Andy Murray despite losing the match, but the other three winners were pretty much deserved even if a couple of the players missed out on winning the match in much easier fashion than it turned out to be. That doesn't matter to me when it comes to finding winners, especially where those players have deservedly moved through, and I have something to build on this week to try and add some positive numbers to the season totals before the move to Canada as the Masters/Premier Events in Toronto and Montreal begin next week.


Timea Babos v Maria Sakkari: This is a Second Round match from San Jose as the Quarter Final line up is put together for Friday and I am going to back the underdog to win this match.

The layers are not finding it easy to split Timea Babos and Maria Sakkari, but I do think the latter is a touch overrated thanks to some stand out wins on the Tour in 2018. Maria Sakkari has been a strong winner against some of the best players on the Tour, but her numbers suggest it is an unsustainable level that she is producing and Babos is a very competent hard court player that could edge her out.

One of the stand out issues Sakkari has had on the hard courts is she has struggled with her return this season compared to the last couple of years. That could be put to the test against a decent server like Babos and I think the Hungarian has an edge here.

I also expect Babos to have enough success against the Sakkari second serve to have every chance of securing the upset in this match.

Babos has also shown herself to be a dangerous player once she puts a couple of wins together in the same tournament and that has especially been the case on the hard courts in 2018. This is a player who has dropped off the standard she set for herself in 2015 and 2016, but Babos has shown signs she is getting back to that kind of level and I expect that will be too much for Sakkari who is a good player, but one who has been overachieving in 2018.


Venus Williams - 4.5 games v Heather Watson: There have been definite signs of slippage in the Venus Williams game in 2018 and I do wonder if the former World Number 1 has missed her best chance to add another Grand Slam to her collection in 2017.

Venus Williams was able to reach the Final of the Australian Open and Wimbledon as well as the US Open Semi Final but she won none of those tournaments and 2018 has been much more difficult all around. At least a move back onto the hard courts can give the elder Williams sister a chance to put some wins together and rebuild her confidence.

In general her hard court numbers have been pretty solid in 2018 and that definitely gives Venus Williams the edge over Heather Watson who has slipped outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings.

Watson began 2018 with a strong run in Hobart having come through the Qualifiers and eventually make the Quarter Final of that tournament. That has helped her produce an 8-10 record for the season, but Watson is just 1-7 since the end of her run in Hobart and her numbers and her numbers have taken a hit right across the board.

The win over Claire Lui in the First Round at least ended her run of losses on the hard courts, but Watson is now facing a much bigger challenge. You have to factor in the fact that Venus Williams is playing her first hard court tournament of the summer, but even that may not be enough to see Watson challenge the American here.


Denis Istomin + 2.5 games v Maximilian Marterer: The clay courts have not been very kind to Denis Istomin in 2018, but his numbers suggested that he had been very unfortunate not to have put some wins up. After losing all 9 matches played on the clay courts in 2018, Istomin has found some form in Kitzbuhel where he has come through the Qualifiers.

Adding a couple more wins in the main draw means Istomin has reached a Quarter Final on the surface and I think he has a better chance of the upset against Maximilian Marterer than the layers believe.

Istomin is serving effectively on the surface although there is no doubt he would like to be a really more dangerous on the return of serve. His actual percentage of points won against the serve are not that bad, but Istomin has not been able to convert the break points he has created and that has put some pressure on the serve.

Even then his return numbers are better looking than those that Marterer has produced and his serve has been a little more solid on this surface. Of course Marterer did reach the Fourth Round at the French Open, but that may have influenced his prices and he is winning less points on serve and return in terms of a percentage than Istomin.

With the momentum the latter has built up he should be confident he can secure an upset, but I will take the games available in case of a tight third set defeat for Istomin.


Jaume Munar - 1.5 games v Taro Daniel: You have got to be impressed with the way both of these players have been playing on the clay courts over the last six weeks. Both Jaume Munar and Taro Daniel have had considerable success on the clay courts at the Challenger level and they have bought that onto the main Tour too.

Even then you would have to say both Munar and Daniel would have hoped for more wins and they also were beaten by the same Roberto Bautista Agut in back to back matches in Gstaad last week.

The key to the match could be how well Daniel serves- he has been producing some of his best tennis of his career as far as the serve has been going and that has been especially true on the clay courts. However this time he is facing a strong returner in Munar who has broken opponents very quickly and who will look to force Daniel to beat him from the back of the court.

Munar may be the more comfortable on the clay courts, but I don't think Daniel will be too scared of having to break the Spaniard's serve considering it is a weapon that can be attacking. He may also have confidence from having beaten Munar in the Barcelona Qualifiers around fifteen months ago but Munar looks an improved player now and I think he edges out Daniel this time.


Cameron Norrie v Adrian Mannarino: This is only the second pick I am making from Los Cabos this week and I am backing the fast improving Cameron Norrie to get the better of his fellow left-handed opponent in Adrian Mannarino in this Quarter Final.

Norrie had a strong run in Atlanta last week and his College experience in the United States should mean he is very comfortable on the hard courts. His numbers have backed that up in 2018 with a slight improvement in his service hold percentage and points won behind serve percentage despite the step up to more regular time on the ATP Tour.

His returning is decent enough on the hard courts too and the results have been good over the last couple of weeks which will have given him confidence.

Adrian Mannarino cannot be underestimated considering all of the veteran experience he has and the Frenchman is a very competent hard court player in his own right. However his returning numbers have taken a hit from previous seasons and that could be the difference in what is expected to be a tight Quarter Final to be played on Thursday.

Those returning numbers have shown a sharp decline when facing opponents Ranked in the top 100 and Cameron Norrie can make another Semi Final on the hard courts this week.


David Goffin - 1.5 games v Francis Tiafoe: The ATP Washington event has had plenty of problems with rain this week and that may be the case on Thursday too so don't be surprised if this match is not in a position to take to the courts.

However at some point David Goffin and Francis Tiafoe will have to play and I am giving the edge to the Belgian in what looks a potentially very good match.

There has been a big improvement from Tiafoe this year and he looks a player that will make some serious strides up the World Rankings in the next twelve months. The American has moved into the top 50 of the World Rankings but there is still some more room for improvement as the 20 year old continues to show some inconsistencies which won't be a massive surprise.

His serve has improved, but Tiafoe is still working on getting the best out of his return game although he may have a few more chances against the David Goffin serve. In saying that, Goffin has been able to look after his serve well enough on the hard courts in 2018 and he will be all the better for battling past Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the Second Round.

Goffin has not been in the best form since the end of the French Open, but he will be happy to be back on the hard courts and I think he will edge out Tiafoe in what could be a very fun match to watch once the rain clears away.

MY PICKS: Timea Babos @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Denis Istomin + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Jaume Munar - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
David Goffin - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-5, + 4.68 Units (26 Units Staked, + 18% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (August 2nd)

I was really frustrated yesterday morning and felt close to deciding to make a break from the Tennis Picks until next week when the Canadian Masters/Premier Event is due to begin.

While the remainder of Tuesday was better, I still feel something has been left on the court with a couple of players going down in close matches, especially Kei Nishikori who didn't cover despite breaking serve five times against Donald Young. My fears about his serve proved correct, but that is frustrating because Nishikori has no business not winning that match more comfortably, although overall it was a winning day on Tuesday.

Kitzbuhel had a lot of close Second Round matches on Wednesday and I didn't find anything of interest from there on this day. However there look to be better options at the events in Washington and Los Cabos and that is where the picks come from on Wednesday in Second Round action.


Lucas Pouille - 3.5 games v Tommy Paul: One of the main reasons that I can't see Lucas Pouille maintaining his position inside the top 20 of the World Rankings at this moment is the poor return numbers he produces . There is clearly plenty of heart and determination inside of Pouille which sees him play really well at clutch moments, while the serve is better than advertised, but without improving the return there are going to be plenty of chances for his opponents to get the better of him.

The Frenchman is a solid player, but I think you have to be a little ignorant to bypass the fact that his last eight losses have all come as the favourite. If Pouille is slightly below his par level, Tommy Paul could be another who can take advantage, although the young American will have to have a career best performance to do that.

Paul has served well, but I think the movement can be exploited and he might be under pressure if Pouille is serving as well as he can. The first match back on the hard courts might mean Pouille is a little undercooked against an opponent who reached the Quarter Final last week in Atlanta, although Paul's defeat came against the first player he met who is at a similar level to Pouille.

The youngster has played a lot of tennis over the last eight/nine days with a number of his wins last week coming in three sets. Paul also needed to come from behind to beat Casper Ruud on Monday and was helped by the latter being affected by the heat and humidity in Washington on the day.

I do think Paul will have some solid moments, but I think Pouille's experience can tell. While it will need a better than normal returning day from the Frenchman, I do think Pouille is going to be good enough to earn himself a 6-4, 6-4 win.


Gilles Muller - 4.5 games v Dmitry Tursunov: Over the years Dmitry Tursunov has had the better of Gilles Muller, but their last meeting took place twelve months ago and ended in a routine win of the lefty from Luxembourg. While Muller has found an Indian Summer to his career, Tursunov has seen injury knock his World Ranking down outside the top 800 and his 'Protected Ranking' tournaments are beginning to run out too.

The Russian did win his first match since March 2016 in the First Round on Tuesday, snapping a run of nine consecutive losses for Tursunov. The last four losses had been in very comfortable fashion and I do wonder if this is a player that is just playing out the tournaments he can enter at this level before calling it a day in his career.

Muller is thinking of anything other than retirement in what has been a memorable 2017 for him already. Some of the numbers dictate that Muller is perhaps going to go through a difficult patch of results soon with the returning numbers not matching up to the success he has had in breaking serve.

His own serve has been a huge weapon and Muller will have some confidence having reached the Semi Final last week in Atlanta. The return game obviously is a little limited and makes me wonder if he can cover spreads like the one he is faced here, but I am backing Muller to do that against Tursunov who won't be used to playing two matches in quick fashion as he is on Wednesday.

At his peak Tursunov had a huge serve, but this is a less effective shot these days. As long as Muller can make a few effective returns I can see him finding a way to earn at least a couple of breaks of serve and that may be enough to earn a 7-6, 6-2 win.


Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: I am not as high on Kyle Edmund as some in the British media seem to be, but I will say this is a player who has found some of his best tennis when he has been matched up against the top 20 players on the Tour. That makes him a dangerous Second Round opponent for Grigor Dimitrov who is making his first appearance on the hard courts this summer.

The Dimitrov numbers in 2017 have actually been pretty good as he looks to make a move back up the World Rankings and he has been particularly good when facing the players Ranked lower down. The serve has been well protected, while the Dimitrov return has been more effective when playing those Ranked outside the top 20 of the World Rankings.

He will need to be at his best because he is facing a player who reached the Semi Final in Atlanta and Edmund also had an impressive First Round win here. There is still room for improvement on the return of serve if Edmund is going to reach the top 20 of the World Rankings, but he does seem to thrive on matches against the best players.

Edmund may only have a 6-17 record against top 20 players, but that becomes 5-11 when looking at the last twelve months and that has to be respected. While the return numbers are not overly impressive, Edmund seems to be very good at converting the break point chances he does earn and that has led to some sets being stolen.

That makes him dangerous when you think of the number he is being given in this one, but Dimitrov is 11-1 against players outside the top 20 of the World Rankings on the hard courts in 2017. The return has been very effective in those matches and Dimitrov has served well which can help him get the better of Edmund in a 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 win.


Gael Monfils - 4.5 games v Yuki Bhambri: The defending Champion is a very popular figure with fans around the world and that is no different in Washington where Gael Monfils feels comfortable. Monfils won the title here last year and in two previous visits to Washington he has reached the Semi Final and finished Runner Up in those two trips.

It is clear Monfils enjoys the conditions and he will come in with the confidence of being the defending Champion. The first match back on the hard courts is a factor for Monfils this week, but he has played well against those players Ranked outside the top 100 like he is facing on Wednesday.

Monfils has a 18-2 record against players Ranked outside the top 100 on the hard courts over the last four years including a 3-0 record this season. The service numbers have been steady, but Monfils has improved his returning numbers in each of the last three years in this situation.

You can see why that would be the case with his defensive ability meaning lower Ranked players have to hit more quality shots than they will be used to at their usual level. That may be a problem for Yuki Bhambri who has only played thirty-two matches at the main ATP level and is 3-7 when facing top 50 Ranked opponents.

That becomes 1-7 on the hard courts and Bhambri struggles to hold the serve while also having real issues getting his teeth into return games. Even though I do feel Monfils is the kind of player who can leave the door open for opponents when he is not fully motivated, I don't think that will be the case here and I imagine he is capable of around four breaks of serve leading to a 6-4, 6-3 win.


Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Vincent Millot: There is no doubt that Fernando Verdasco took victory from the jaws of defeat in the First Round as he recovered from 6-7, 3-5 to beat Ernesto Escobedo 6-7, 7-5, 6-2. While Verdasco is playing on back to back days, I think that is the kind of win that will give him confidence to take into the rest of the tournament.

The match in the Second Round should be one Verdasco is comfortable win as he faces Vincent Millot who is Ranked outside the top 100 and also off a three set win. It was an upset win for the Frenchman and he is going to need to be at his very best, and Verdasco way under par, for him to earn another one of those.

His serve is going to be challenged by Verdasco who continues to find the solid returning games in 2017 to protect the declining service numbers. The Spaniard is still capable of rattling through the service games, but he seems to face some real pressure on a couple of those which he can't escape.

It may be a little easier against Millot whose returning stats are not that impressive despite playing at the lower level for much of the season. These factors should come together in this one and that is why I think Verdasco is going to find his way to a much more routine win than the one he had in the First Round.

As long as Verdasco takes the chances that he will create, I think the Spaniard is able to move into the Quarter Final behind a 7-5, 6-3 win.


Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Akira Santillon: The decline of Tomas Berdych has been noticeable but it has not been a quick one and he is still very capable of producing some big time tennis on his day. He is once again threatening to get back inside the top 10 of the World Rankings and his performances on the grass courts will encourage him.

There is no doubt the returning stats have declined and that has to be a worry for Berdych, but he is still capable of winning matches like this one. Akira Santillon may be a part of the next generation of stars on the ATP Tour, but the youngster has not really made his breakthrough on the main Tour just yet.

The numbers have not been that strong to support a breakthrough win like this one would be if Santillon does earn the upset on Wednesday. Having won three matches and Berdych playing his first hard court match of the summer may help Santillon, but I think he will need more to close the gap between these players.

Santillon is just 1-5 against top 100 Ranked players in his young career, and he has had significant issues protecting serve. That will aid Berdych despite the declining returning numbers, while the Berdych serve is likely to be well protected.

It all seems to point to a fairly routine day for Berdych and Santillon's five losses against top 100 Ranked players have seen the opponent cover this number four times. I will look for Berdych to become the latest to do that after a slower start while getting the hard court feel back underneath the feet.


Julia Goerges - 3.5 games v Alison Van Uytvanck: There are a few players on the WTA Tour that can be hard to trust and I think Julia Goerges is definitely one of them. Despite having some strong numbers, Goerges does not play the big points as effectively as I would like when thinking of backing her, but this may be a match that suits her.

As well as Alison Van Uytvanck is capable of playing, I do think the main reason she has not been able to move up the World Rankings as effectively as she would like is the poor return numbers. That is going to be tested to the full by Goerges who can serve effectively on the faster surfaces and also has the slightly stronger return numbers which can see her cover this handicap.

There are times when Goerges can come completely off the boil which will give Van Uytvanck her chance to break the serve, but overall I do think the majority of chances will come for the German.

It is a matter of taking those opportunities when they are presented against an opponent who can rattle through service games before getting into a difficult position. The problem for Van Uytvanck is her aggressive style means she plays with little margin for error and she just doesn't have the same consistency as the top players to keep finding her marks.

Backing Goerges is always a chore, but she should have enough of an edge to work her way to a 7-6, 6-3 win in this one.

MY PICKS: Lucas Pouille - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-6, - 2.20 Units (22 Units Staked, - 10% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (August 2nd)

I didn't make any tennis picks from the Monday offerings because I simply didn't find any value from the limited matches on offer.

On Tuesday the remaining First Round matches in Atlanta will be completed, while the tournament in Florianopolis will move onto the Second Round as they look to get that event completed before the Olympic Games tennis begins on Saturday.

After a solid month of July, I am looking for another good week of picks to put into the books and keep the momentum rolling as we move further into August.


Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 games v Horacio Zeballos: Last year was a rarity for Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in recent seasons on the Tour as he finished 2015 with a winning record. That is the only winning record he has had in the last five years on the Tour, but the Spaniard is in a position to make it back to back years with a winning record for the first time since 2010.

Recent weeks have been difficult for Garcia-Lopez who will be hoping a move to the hard courts can help him change his form. It hasn't been the best surface for him in recent years and he has a losing record on the hard courts since 2010, but there is enough to like about his game against Horacio Zeballos who hasn't had much joy on this surface.

The latter hasn't played a lot of hard court tennis in recent years and is coming off the clay courts to take in this tournament in Atlanta. Horacio Zeballos is dangerous thanks to the lefty serve which can be difficult for players to read, but he can struggle with the consistency and speed coming through the courts.

I will admit it is hard to fully trust Garcia-Lopez considering the relatively weak serve and poor form he has been in. The hard courts are also not his favourite surface, but he does enjoy more success on these courts than Zeballos and I think that can be a key in a very tight match that can see Garcia-Lopez edge through 76, 64.


Sergiy Stakhovsky - 1.5 games v Ivan Dodig: The withdrawals from the Olympic Games meant there were late invitations for other players who had missed the cut. One of those was Sergiy Stakhovsky but he decided he won't make changes to his schedule and will play in Atlanta for important Ranking points rather than accept the chance to play in Rio de Janeiro.

The only way it will be seen by him and his team in being the right decision is if Stakhovsky can have a decent week in his first tournament back on the hard courts. It won't come easy as he will be faced by Ivan Dodig in the First Round, although the latter has lost six of his last seven matches including on the hard courts this summer.

That means Dodig has lost his last six matches on the hard courts and it is hard to stem that poor trend if the Croatian is not quite at full health. Dodig did play Borna Coric tough last week in Toronto, and his serve can be a dangerous weapon when firing at full potential.

Both players will look for their serve-volley game to dominate the other and it looks like it will be a close match between them. Like Dodig, Stakhovsky doesn't have a strong record on the hard courts at the main Tour level, but he has won a Challenger title on the surface in 2016 and I think he will have a slight edge from a fitness level to come through 64, 67, 63.


Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: Both Fernando Verdasco and Dusan Lajovic have had some solid results since the end of Wimbledon, but those have come on the clay courts in Europe and now they play one another on the North American hard courts.

I can see both players coming into the match with confidence, but there is a clear difference in the results each has produced on the hard courts. Over the last three seasons, Dusan Lajovic is just 7-17 on the hard courts at the main Tour level and just 12-8 in either Challenger or Qualifiers level.

That isn't to say that Fernando Verdasco has been dominating on the hard courts, but he is 26-25 over the same period as the Lajovic results with all of those matches at the main Tour level. While it was Lajovic that won their previous match on a clay court, the hard courts should give Verdasco the edge with his power being able to hit through the courts and taking away some of the defensive work the Serbian can produce.

This is still a lot of games for Verdasco to cover, especially when you look at the results and see that the Spaniard struggles with this number on the hard courts. However I have seen Lajovic have a hard time staying with opponents once they pick up his serve, which is not the biggest, and Verdasco can have enough joy to find a 63, 64 win out of this one.


Monica Puig - 5.5 games v Olga Savchuk: The way Monica Puig plays her tennis means she is always liable to producing games filled with errors. There is plenty of aggression to like from the Puig game, but being slightly out of sync means a host of errors occur which will give her opponents confidence to upset her.

It will be a huge upset if Olga Savchuk is able to get the better of Puig when they meet on the hard courts of Florianopolis on Tuesday. This is a player that hasn't shown much form in recent weeks with plenty of losses behind her, while Savchuk has taken some heavy losses on the hard courts as players break down her game.

Savchuk would be 1-9 in her last ten losses on the hard courts when it comes to getting within this number and she is just 1-6 overall on this surface in Qualifiers or lower level tournament than the main Tour through 2016. The Ukrainian has taken some heavy losses to players that are not of the same level of Puig, although the latter is just 2-3 on the Tour since her surprising run to the Eastbourne Semi Finals.

However Puig has had the majority of her wins on the hard courts and she was an impressive winner in the First Round. As long as Puig is serving well, she should have her chances in this one to break serve consistently and I think she will eventually wear down a player that doesn't face opponents of this level too often. After a battle in the first set, I look for Puig to move through the gears and see off Savchuk 64, 62.

MY PICKS: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Sergiy Stakhovsky - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2013 (August 2nd)

The first few days of this week saw a few of the picks just lacking the luck all picks require to end in the winning enclose, but Thursday proved to be the day when a lot of things went wrong at the same time to ruin the week so far.

The only saving grace so far is that Juan Monaco and Tommy Haas are both still in the draw as the outright picks and hopefully the last couple of days of this week are going to prove to have lady luck back on their side.

EDIT: I am stunned with how poor Thursday turned out to be as almost every pick had been in a winning position before suddenly collapsing into a heap: I made 6 picks on Thursday and four of them were in a strong position after the first stanzas of the match before falling away.

For example, Juan Monaco won the first set 62 before missing chances in the final set to get the 63 required only to break to love for 64... Fernando Verdasco won the first set 64 and made a couple of big mistakes to get broken in set two at 54 and then broke in the opening game of the third and still couldn't win the match... Radek Stepanek was a set and a break up and then suddenly collapsed to lose the match.

After having the luck earlier this week, that was a real kick in the gut for Thursday considering all of those picks ended on the wrong side and it doesn't feel great. As I said before, the only saving grace is both outright picks are still in their draws, although I don't think either are favourites to win the tournaments.


Marcel Granollers v Robin Haase: These two players had a really close match in Gstaad last week that was decided by a final set tie-break, but I believe Marcel Granollers may be able to gain a measure of revenge for his loss at the hands of Robin Haase.

Kitzbuhel has been a very good venue for Haase as he continues his winning run here since the tournament returned to the calendar and he is just two matches away from winning his third title in a row. His serve is given added bite with the altitude helping it zip through the court and confidence is high having reached the Final in Gstaad last week.

However, I do think Marcel Granollers can get the better of him as his serve is also aided by the conditions and I believe the Spaniard is a little more consistent with his backhand of the two players. That is the shot that both players would consider to be their weakest one and so the player that can limit their mistakes behind that stroke is most likely to come through the match.

I wouldn't at all be surprised if we see another three set match between these players, but I do think Granollers can end Haase's run here as long as he can take advantage of the break points that come his way. I expect Granollers to try and attack Haase's backhand and force mistakes from that shot and this time I will look for the Spaniard to win the key points that lead to a change in the result from last week.


Juan Monaco - 2.5 games v Albert Montanes: These two players have played the critical points better than their opponents this week and that is the reason that Juan Monaco takes on Albert Montanes in the second Semi Final in Kitzbuhel.

I believe in Monaco a little more than Montanes in this one because I do think he is consistently better from the back of the court, although his serve can be really erratic at times and he can go through streaks of unforced errors that make life easier for his opponent.

On the other hand, Montanes has been very successful behind his first serve this week, but the percentage is not really good enough and he has been fortunate to come through the last couple of Rounds here and it does feel his luck will run out in this one.

The Spaniard is a very competent clay court player, but he is up against another and I do think Monaco will get the better of the baseline rallies more often than not. There could be a fair few breaks of serve in this one, although Montanes has saved a lot of those points this week, and I think Monaco will be able to extract enough unforced errors to come through to the Final.

It could be a really close call for a while, but I think Monaco wins 63, 75.


Dmitry Tursunov v Marinko Matosevic: There was a major drift against Dmitry Tursunov in his match against Radek Stepanek, but he showed tremendous heart to come from a set and a break down to beat the Czech player. I believe he has the game to back that up against Marinko Matosevic, although the Australian has been surprising opponents all week.

Matosevic has a big game and has beaten James Blake, Nikolay Davydenko and Milos Raonic to reach this Quarter Final and all of those wins came as the underdog. To build even more confidence, he has won all of those matches without dropping a set and this run follows his run to the Semi Final in Los Angeles last year so the North American hard courts are to Matosevic's liking.

He has a big serve and that will certainly aid Matosevic on the hard courts and Tursonov's serve won't really intimidate him after he beat Raonic yesterday.

The Russian will have to serve well here if he is to win the match, but he has been playing well enough this week to think he can stop the surprising run that Matosevic has been on, although it may take three sets to do so.


Marcos Baghdatis + 2.5 games v John Isner: John Isner won in Atlanta last week and he has moved through fairly comfortably to the Quarter Final here in Washington, the event where he announced himself to the Tour a few years ago. He also has won all four previous matches against Marcos Baghdatis yet I think taking the games on the Cypriot could be the right call.

They haven't played on the Tour since the US Open in 2011, but the last two matches between the players have been close and Isner, while winning, has rarely won comfortably in the last two weeks. His serve is always going to be a weapon on this surface, but Baghdatis has snapped his losing run on the Tour and has the aggression to make Isner work behind it.

Baghdatis has also served pretty effectively this week and I think Isner will also find it tough to break him too and tie-breaks could be in the offing in this one. If Baghdatis can also string together a couple of solid points on the Isner serve, I think he may just sneak a set and all of that makes me believe that 2.5 games is too many for him to be given.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 games v Kevin Anderson: Another player who has a 4-0 lead in their head to head going into the Quarter Final is Juan Martin Del Potro over Kevin Anderson and my fears that he may not be motivated for a full week have been unfounded.

He even went through double-duty on Thursday as he beat Ryan Harrison and later Bernard Tomic, seeing off both youngsters without dropping a set and barely being troubled by the opposition.

A couple of the previous matches between these players have been close, but looking at the stats of the entire matches shows that the server, as expected, is the dominant player. However, it is Del Potro who has certainly got his teeth a little more into the Anderson service games and the big South African will not get away with as low a first serve percentage as he had last week in Atlanta, although he has been better this week.

I just feel that Del Potro, as long as he serves well, will certainly have the better opportunities to break serve and I can see him taking advantage of Anderson, who has played a lot of tennis in the last two weeks, and coming through 64 64.


Sorana Cirstea v Alize Cornet: Sorana Cirstea hasn't really moved her career on from the point in which she surprised Sam Stosur at the Australian Open and there is a case of untapped potential when you think about her game.

She is aggressive and she can certainly hit players off the court when she is feeling good, but there are a lot of inconsistent efforts from her and that has seen her remain outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings.

Cirstea will feel her aggression can see her get the better of Alize Cornet in this Quarter Final, especially as she has dominated the Frenchwoman in the last three meetings, winning all three without dropping a set.

Cornet is enjoying her best year on the Tour, but the hard courts don't always sit well with her as she is comfortable being the defender on the court and the speedier courts will make that tougher to do. I do think aggression will win the game in this one, as long as Cirstea doesn't put together too many unforced errors.


MY PICKS: Marcel Granollers @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dmitry Tursunov @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis + 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-13, - 9.64 Units (40 Units Staked, - 24.1% Yield)

Tennis Picks August 2nd (London Olympics Day 6 and Washington)

I've had a pretty rough couple of days as I received some bad personal news, so I haven't seen as much of the tennis as I would have normally.

That isn't to say I haven't followed some of the results as they come through, and I was heavily disappointed that yesterday didn't produce a winning record despite looking good for a little while.

I was most disappointed with Marcos Baghdatis' collapse against Andy Murray- he got himself into a pretty strong position at 6-4, 1-1, but then decided to stop playing... I can only guess at what happened as I didn't see any of that match, but the fact of the matter is he lost seven straight games and gave the cover no chance despite getting into a decider as I imagined.

Getting almost a sets worth of games looked like it couldn't miss if the match did go into a final set, yet it was that collapse in the middle of the match that left the Cypriot short of the cover.

While that was largely irritating, the fact that Serena Williams, Roger Federer and Petra Kvitova have all made the Quarter Finals is something to keep me in a positive frame of mind. The first two players I mentioned remain strong favourites to pick up the Gold Medal, but both face awkward Quarter Finals, while Kvitova has been a little inconsistent so far this week.

I guess it will all be made a lot clearer as this tournament quickly draws to a close and the players begin looking forward to the North American hard court swing leading up to the US Open.


John Isner + 3.5 games v Roger Federer: I have a feeling this pick may just need a little bit of luck for it to come to pass, but I am sure the first set is going to end in a tie-break and so I will be hoping Roger Federer is serving first and so will likely need to break serve twice or more to cover this spread.

John Isner is one of those players that can be unplayable when he is on form with his serve and he has been playing well so far this week. He has proven his ability to push the best players on the Tour when he is serving well and I also think Roger Federer can sometimes struggle to find a rhythm when it comes to returning serve.

Federer does hold a 3-1 head to head against Isner and would have covered this spread in each of those wins, but I don't think the big American will come into this feeling any fear and he may just be able to push the World Number 1 enough to cover this spread.


Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 games v Angelique Kerber: Both of these players came through a tough test in their last match to reach this Quarter Final and both have already shown they are very comfortable on the grass courts having reached the Semi Finals at Wimbledon last month.

I think the difference between them will be that Victoria Azarenka is the better player and she is mentally in a much tougher place, while we saw signs of Angelique Kerber 'giving up' on a couple of occasions at Wimbledon and that attitude will not get the job done here.

Azarenka has had a couple of tough matches here this week, and she is playing a lot of tennis being involved in the mixed doubles as well as these singles, but I think she is going to be too consistent for Kerber who is having a good season.

Earlier this season, Azarenka won in straight sets at Indian Wells against Kerber and I think we could see something similar here.


Mardy Fish - 3.5 games v Richard Berankis: The biggest issue surrounds Mardy Fish's fitness, but he was a comfortable winner in his first game so his ankle injury must be doing better than it may have been from a couple of weeks ago.

I like his chances in this match if he is feeling better, despite the fact that Richard Berankis has had a decent hard court swing in the United States over the last couple of weeks.

However, Berankis reached the Final in LA last week and while that will give him confidence, it also means he has played a lot of tennis and that has the tendency of catching up with players that are not so used to going deep in tournaments on the Main Tour.

Berankis was crushed in the Final last week by Sam Querrey and won just 2 games in that match, but he should perform much better than that in this match. However, I still expect Mardy Fish to be too strong and can see the American recording a 6-3, 7-6 win to cover this spread.


MY PICKS: John Isner + 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 3.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 5-7, - 3.08 Units (23 Units Staked)

Tennis Picks August 2nd Washington and San Diego

It has been an incredibly busy day today meaning I could not get on with my picks at a reasonable time so I am going to ignore the San Diego matches as they start very soon and I have not had time to look and analyse my picks.

On the other hand, we have a bit of time before the Washington tournament starts so I will make a couple of plays from there:

Ryan Sweeting vs Alex Bogomolov: It is hard picking through these early round matches as you get some untrustworthy players that are more likely to stress you out than give you an easy win.

In saying that, I am going to back Ryan Sweeting to beat his compatriot tonight even though Bogomolov has been in the better form when looking at his Semi Final appearance in Los Angeles last week.

Sweeting has not been playing that well in recent weeks but he did perform pretty well at Delray Beach and Indian Wells earlier this season and the hard courts in the US should be his best surface. He also has decent course form by reaching the 3rd Round here in Washington last year.

Bogomolov has had a couple of strong tournaments on the hard courts this year with the Semi Final from last week backed up by a 3rd Round appearance in Miami. He is perhaps more notable on this side of the pond for beating Andy Murray earlier this year.

Ryan Sweeting has also won 4 of the 7 matches they have played- in fact he is 3-1 in the last 4 matches that have taken place over the last 18 months and he also beat Bogomolov in the qualifiers here last year.


James Blake vs David Nalbandian: This could be a terrible pick at around 2am British time, but I think James Blake has a chance in surprising David Nalbandian here.

Blake has played some decent tennis over the last month on the hard courts so he should be mostly comfortable on the surface. It has taken the likes of John Isner and Juan Martin Del Potro to stop his runs and the American must be disappointed to be handed this tough 2nd Round match.

However, Nalbandian has not played a match since Wimbledon as injury and then lack of entry to tournaments has given him an extended time off. He is the reigning Champion here so motivation should be high with points to defend, but it is a tough test on little competitive tennis.

Blake also won their only previous meeting and could cause problems if he is hitting the ball well- the problem these days is the lack of consistency that Blake has and Nalbandian basically won this tournament last year with little tennis coming in.

As I said, it might look silly at 2am this morning, but I will back the underdog here too.


MY PICKS: Ryan Sweeting @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
James Blake @ 2.20 Stan James (1 Unit)


WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: + 0.2 Units

Tennis Picks August 2nd ATP Kitzbuhel

I don't have time to put up a long post on this occasion, but I do have 2 picks from this tournament and will be hoping I can come out with a profit:

Joao Souza vs Jerzy Janowicz


Filippo Volandri vs Marcel Granollers




MY PICKS: Joao Souza @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Filippo Volandri @ 2.88 BetFred (1 Unit)