Tennis Picks 2019 (February 28th)

It has been an up and down kind of week, but there are still enough positives to take away to think it is going to be possible to bounce back from what was the first losing week of the season.

The tournament in Dubai has already reached the Quarter Final stage because the Final is due to be played on Saturday, but the rest of the events being played this week will complete the Quarter Final line up today.

As I have done all week, I am going to update the weekly totals once all the matches have been completed from the selections made. I will also add any selections from the ATP and WTA event being played in Acapulco when those markets are put together during the evening, but for now I have my Picks from Dubai and Sao Paulo which can be read below.

Gael Monfils - 4.5 games v Ricardas Berankis: There won't be many people who would argue against the natural talent and athleticism Gael Monfils possesses, but the Frenchman has perhaps not always focused on winning as much as he has on entertaining the fans. That has made Monfils a very popular figure on the Tour for fans and peers alike, but he has opened the 2019 season with a real focus and that has turned into some strong results.

He reached the Semi Final in Sofia and then backed that up by winning the title in Rotterdam the following weeks which has helped Gael Monfils begin to move back up the World Rankings. The numbers have been impressive on the hard courts in 2019 to produce the 11-2 record, but somehow Monfils has actually been even better this week in Dubai.

In the two wins over Marin Cilic and Marcos Baghdatis, Gael Monfisl has held 90% of his service games and he has put immense pressure on those opponents which has produced a 42% break percentage. Both of those numbers are up on the 83% and 32% marks he has set for the 2019 season overall on the hard courts, but even those are very strong numbers being set by Monfils and he should be heading into this match feeling very good about himself.

Ricardas Berankis will also be feeling very positive after coming through a couple of Qualifiers and beating an in-form Daniil Medvedev in the First Round. The Lithuanian has been playing very well on the hard courts, but generally he has been playing a much lower level than the one he is dealing with in Dubai and the win over Medvedev is a rare success over top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface.

While he has gone 2-1 in those matches in 2019, Berankis was 1-8 last season and his service and break percentages took a significant dent in those matches. He has been serving very well this week and in 2019 in general, but Gael Monfils is playing at an extremely high level and I think he will have a little too much for this opponent.

As well as Berankis' numbers indicate he is playing, Monfils' numbers are better on both the serve and return and I think that will see him earn a break more in each of the first two sets played and work his way to a cover of a big number.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Hubert Hurkacz: I might not have been behind him on Wednesday, but all credit has to be given to Hubert Hurkacz for the way he battled past Kei Nishikori. While a very good win on paper I do think Hurkacz was aided by his opponent who simply did not play anything like as well as he can.

It is unlikely Hurkacz will be able to rely on his opponent being out of sorts on Thursday in this Quarter Final as he faces Stefanos Tsitsipas for the second week in a row. Last week these players met in Marseille as Tsitsipas put a dominant win on the board over Hurkacz on his way to winning the title there.

On that day Tsitsipas produced one of his stronger performances when it comes to returning the serve and he will believe he can do the same here. As well as Hurkacz played against Nishikori, the serve was not as dominant as he would like and he has continued to just struggle when he has played the top players on the Tour on the hard courts.

Last week Hurkacz did not break the Tsitsipas serve and he won less than 20% of the points against the serve which will put him in a very difficult spot if he repeats that here. The serve has been a potent weapon for the Greek star in 2019 in general and very much so this week in Dubai as he has put two wins on the board to reach this Quarter Final.

I have mentioned before that it can be hard to trust Tsitsipas to cover big numbers because of a limited return game, but he has had his eye in so far this week. That has led to him breaking in just under 32% of the return games played and he did find three breaks of the Hurkacz serve last week in Marseille which will give him confidence to take in this Quarter Final.

Two breaks of serve may be enough for Tsitsipas to cover in this one if Hurkacz is not able to have much success getting into the return games. I think the Greek player can do that here and I will back him to cover the handicap in this Quarter Final.

Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 games v Hugo Dellien: The South American Golden Swing early in the season can give some of the lesser lights on the Tour a real chance to make an impact on a big stage. Both Hugo Dellien and Juan Ignacio Londero have spent a lot more time on the Challenger circuit rather than playing in these main ATP events, but both have made use of their opportunities and also improved their World Rankings over the last month.

In fact both players reached a career high World Ranking at the start of this week when the new Rankings were released. That would have given them a boost and now they meet in the Second Round in Sao Paulo looking to reach another Quarter Final.

Hugo Dellien did that last week in Rio de Janeiro, but Juan Ignacio Londero has been even more impressive after taking the title home in Cordoba to open up the Golden Swing.

One of the key reasons for the successes that both players have had is the strong returning numbers produced that has seen both Dellien and Londero break serve at a very good percentage on the clay courts. Their return numbers are very, very similar, but the Londero has been a significantly more effective server on the clay courts over the last thirteen months and I think that will make the difference for him here.

Juan Ignacio Londero should also hold the mental advantage in this one having beaten Hugo Dellien in six of their seven previous matches. That includes beating him in their last two matches in 2018 and again I think it is the serve and the slightly stronger one that Londero possesses which makes the difference for him in those head to heads.

I think he can use the serve to edge out Dellien again in this Second Round match and I will look for him to do that by a margin that covers this handicap.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Casper Ruud @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-11, + 2.48 Units (50 Units Staked, + 4.96% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 27th)

After a pretty poor Monday, Tuesday proved to be a much better day at the time of writing although two Picks from the tournament in Acapulco have still to be completed.

If both of those can return as winners it will be a very good start to the week, but I will update the weekly record on Wednesday once the full set of Tuesday selections are in the books.


As is the case with the beginning of this week, I am going to put up my selections from the ATP Dubai and ATP Sao Paulo tournaments below and I will add anything from Acapulco once those markets have been formed through the evening.


Ricardas Berankis - 2.5 games v Denis Kudla: Both of these players have reached the Second Round in Dubai thanks to upset wins in the First Round and you have to think both are feeling very confident they can make the Quarter Final from this match.

Denis Kudla has really been having a hard time to open 2019, but he showed some real resilience to come back from a set down to beat Matteo Berrettini. In some ways Kudla was a little fortunate, but it will be a confidence boosting win for a player who had been 2-6 in 2019 before that First Round match and had dropped the first set by a comfortable margin.

You have to credit a player who is able to stay in a match through tough times, but Kudla could be facing more of those against the very talented Lithuanian Ricardas Berankis.

One of the criticisms of Berankis' career is that he has not found the consistency to be playing at this level on a regular basis, but the win over Daniil Medvedev in the First Round shows what he is capable of. That comes after winning two matches in the Qualifiers and Berankis has won a Challenger event earlier this season too.

Berankis has been playing well on the hard courts with an 83% hold percentage so far, but the wins have been racking up thanks to a very strong return game. In his fourteen matches in 2019 on this surface, Berankis has broken at just under 30% of the time and he should be able to get into the Kudla service games with the way the American has been playing.

A win in the First Round will help, but Kudla is still holding at 75% on the hard courts and struggling to recover if he does fall behind. He did manage that against Matteo Berrettini, but Kudla has broken in 14% of the return games played on the hard courts in 2019 and I think Berankis can get the better of him like he did at Winston Salem last year.

These two players have met twice before on the hard courts and it is Berankis who has the better returning numbers. I think that will be the case on Wednesday in the Second Round match between them too and I will look for the Lithuanian to cover and reach the Quarter Final.


Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Hubert Hurkacz: It was perhaps a little closer than I would have liked, but Kei Nishikori was able to get the better of Benoit Paire and cover a big spread in the First Round and earn us a winner. I think you can stick with the same market in the Second Round especially now that Nishikori will be a little more familiar with the conditions in Dubai where he is making his debut this week.

As expected it was not always straight forward for Nishikori who found Paire in good form. Early in the match Nishikori had to save a huge amount of break points, but he begun to get stronger he moved through the second set and I think he should have the majority of the play in this one as soon as we get into rallies.

He will still have to respect Hubert Hurkacz whose serve has been a potent weapon for him on the hard courts and he has held at just a tick under 90% of the service games he has played on the surface. However it is easy to ignore the fact that the majority of the matches Hurkacz has played this season have come against players Ranked much lower than the one he will play in the Second Round and we have yet to see the Polish player really produce his best when facing some of the best players on the Tour.

Hurkacz has not won any of his six previous matches on the hard courts against players Ranked in the top 50. A couple of those matches have been fairly competitive but the others less so including a defeat to Stefanos Tsitsipas earlier this season.

The numbers underline the problems for Hurkacz who has held just 60% of his service games in those six matches against the top 50 Ranked opponents. He has really struggled on the return of serve too and I think Kei Nishikori could be playing well enough to make enough balls back in play on the return of serve to wear down Hurkacz in this one.

Kei Nishikori's return game saw him break the Benoit Paire serve three times in the First Round and I think he can match that in this Second Round match. That will give him a chance to cover this number on the handicap and I think Nishikori can get the job done on Wednesday.


Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: The upset win over Milos Raonic has seen Jan-Lennard Struff move through to the Second Round in Dubai, but he will be the underdog again in this match against Marton Fucsovics.

In the last four years Struff has been a competent server on the hard courts, but he is put under pressure by an average return game. It means the German will go into many matches he plays knowing he can't afford to have a slip on the serve if he is going to work his way into a winning position, but knowing you can't drop serve can really affect a player at key times of a match.

The chances might be a little better to recover against Fucsovics who has been holding serve at just under 80% of the games played on the hard courts in 2019. However he has still put a number of wins on the board because of what looks to be a return game significantly superior to the one that Struff will bring to the court.

I also have to say that Fucsovics has seen his overall numbers dented by some one-sided losses to the elite players on the Tour, namely those inside the top 20 of the World Rankings. The Hungarian is actually 5-0 on the hard courts against players Ranked outside the top 50 and in those matches Fucsovics has seen his hold percentage move from 79% overall in 2019 to 86% when those matches have been against the players lower down the Rankings.

At the same time the return of serve has remained strong and Fucsovics should be well rested for this one and I do think he can edge out Struff in this Second Round match.

You have to acknowledge how well Struff can serve which makes this a tougher spread to cover than you may think. However I think Fucsovics is returning the ball well enough to believe he can find a couple of breaks of serve during the course of this match and it may be enough for him to cover.

MY PICKS: Ricardas Berankis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)
Saisai Zheng - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Peter Gojowczyk + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-6, + 2.82 Units (30 Units Staked, + 9.40% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 26th)

It was an up and down Monday, but I will have used it as a learning experience as I have made a few adjustments to a couple of players going forward.

I was a little unlucky to come away with a losing start to the week as Taro Daniel should really have worked his way to a win over Marco Trungelliti, while Roger Federer missed a cover by one game after going through the first two sets without making as much of an impact on the Philipp Kohlschreiber serve as he perhaps should have done.

It happens and I also had a bad selection thrown in which means coming away with three losses from five picks made.


On Tuesday there is a whole host of matches scheduled to be played in the ATP events in Dubai and Sao Paulo. As will be the case every day this week, I will add the selections from the Acapulco event later once those markets and order of play have come together. Of course we could have another situation like Monday where I didn't have any selections from the Acapulco event because nothing hit my mark, but we will see on Tuesday.

What I do know at the time of writing is these are my Tennis Picks from the two tournaments I have mentioned and you can read them below.


Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Benoit Paire: In a somewhat surprising development Kei Nishikori is playing at the ATP Dubai tournament for the first time in his career. You do tend to worry when a player arrives at a new tournament and looks to work their way into understanding the conditions at the event, but Nishikori is one of the top names on the Tour and I don't think that can be an excuse if he is upset in the First Round.

A bigger test may come from opponent Benoit Paire who has beaten Nishikori twice before on the professional Tour. Both previous wins for Paire against Nishikori have come on the hard courts including when he upset him at the US Open, but their most recent match came in Tokyo at the back end of last season and it resulted in a very comfortable win for Nishikori.

2019 has started very well for Nishikori who has won one title and reached the Quarter Final and the Semi Final in the other two events he has played. The hard courts have been very good to Nishikori throughout his career and he would love to put another big week in the books before heading to the tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami and over the next few weeks the Japanese player could be heading back towards his career high Ranking.

Nishikori has produced some very good numbers on the hard courts with a strong 84% hold percentage backed up by an almost 28% break percentage. Those numbers are considerably up on 2018 when he was returning from injury, while the service numbers are about as good as Nishikori has ever produced on this surface.

I would expect Nishikori to have too much for Benoit Paire who is very talented, but also never seemingly too far away from hitting a run of losing a number of games in a row. The Frenchman is just 6-7 on the hard courts in 2019 and he is likely to find a little more difficult to hold serve and is perhaps not as clinical at breaking serve as his opponent in this one and that could be the difference maker and also give Nishikori the chance to cover a big number.

For all the talent Paire has, he is someone who has struggled when facing the top 20 Ranked players on the Tour. That is underlined by his numbers on the hard courts against those opponents in recent years where Paire has struggled to hold above 68% of his service games and has a sub 20% break percentage. It does have to be said that Nishikori's game is one that won't overwhelm Paire and he will have his chances in this one, but his two previous losses in Dubai have ended up being very one-sided and I think the Number 1 Seed in the draw covers in this First Round match.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Matthew Ebden: Any time a player wins a title you do have to wonder how much they are looking forward to spending another long week on the Tour, but I am not sure that is the case for Stefanos Tsitsipas. He won the title in Marseille on Sunday, but over the last year he has followed up other deep runs and successes in tournaments by producing some strong tennis in the following week.

It won't be lost on Tsitsipas that this is a big tournament being played in Dubai and he should have plenty of confidence to take into the event.

He is not someone I have been very keen on backing simply because he has a pretty average return game on the hard courts, but there is no denying Tsitsipas is a very talented player. In a lot of cases I would consider this to be far too big a number for someone struggling on the return to cover because you could need three more breaks of serve than drops of serve if you are going have a chance to get over the number.

On serve I don't really worry so much about the Greek youngster considering he has held 84% of service games on the hard courts in 2017 and 2018 and has moved that number up to near 90% in 2019 so far. Stefanos Tsitsipas is now facing Matthew Ebden whose return of serve has been letting him down so far and been the main reason he is 2-4 on the hard courts in 2019.

The Australian reached a career high in the World Rankings in October, but he looks certain to be moving down the Rankings in the the weeks and months ahead. This has been a level that has routinely been too much for Ebden to deal with and the 71% hold percentage on the hard courts in 2019 should mean even a limited returning game like the one Tsitsipas possesses could have more success than usual.

When Tsitsipas has faced those players outside of the top 20 of the World Rankings the return game has been a little better than his overall numbers. It should mean he has some chances to break serve in enough games to cover this handicap and I think the youngster can back up the title win in Marseille by earning a spot in the Second Round in Dubai with a good looking win on the scoreboard.

This feeling is helped by Ebden having lost two matches to top 20 Ranked players in 2019 and holding just 64% of service games in those matches. I do note that both losses are against two very strong returners, but I think Tsitsipas can outperform his usual numbers here too.


Jaume Munar - 4.5 games v Pedro Sakamoto: Coming through the Qualifiers makes those players a potential threat to those in the main draw as they are used to the conditions in which they are playing. One of those making his way though to the main draw is Pedro Sakamoto who should get plenty of support from his home Brazilian crowd as he plays the first main draw match of his career.

It is a pretty late time for a player to reach this level like Sakamoto has, but he did reach a career high World Ranking earlier this month. That career high Ranking is Number 376 in the world and it goes to show the kind of gap in quality he is going to try and bridge this week in Sao Paulo.

Wins over Matteo Donati and Carlos Berlocq have to be respected especially as Sakamoto fully deserved to win both thanks to some strong serving.

He is going to need all that when he takes on Jaume Munar in the First Round of the main draw and the young Spaniard's run to the Quarter Final in Rio de Janeiro last week has seen him reach a career high World Ranking this week. That run is the third straight Quarter Final reached by Munar in the South American Golden Swing, but he has yet to get over that hump although it still means he is playing at a considerably higher level than his opponent in this one.

This is a big number for Munar to cover despite the wins he has put together over the last month on the clay courts. His serving stats are not quite as good as he would want, while Munar has perhaps underwhelmed a little bit when it comes to breaking serve.

Munar is still winning a strong number of return points, but he has perhaps not played the big points as well as he would have liked. It is going to be very important for him to attack the Sakamoto second serve and put the Brazilian under some pressure and Jaume Munar is also someone who looks to have the superior return game compared with his opponent in this one.

The unfamiliarity with Sakamoto could aid the lower Ranked player to keep the first set close in this one. There won't be much Munar can learn about him prior to this match beginning and I do think it will take a bit of time to know what is coming from the other side of the court.

However I would expect Munar's higher quality to then begin to shine through and I think that will happen in time for him to have a chance of covering this number. This handicap has not been an easy one for the Spaniard to cover and he has had some upset losses to players Ranked outside the top 100 which would worry me, but Sakamoto will have to play at a level he has not really shown in his career to win this match. He could serve his way into a position to keep it close, but I think Munar will wear him down and eventually find a way to win a set with a couple of breaks of serve which should be critical when it comes to covering in this one.


Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: The South American Golden Swing has proved to be very important for Juan Ignacio Londero who has reached a career high World Ranking after winning his first main ATP Tour title. He could have perhaps hoped to have had better runs in Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro after winning the title in Cordoba, but the draws could have been kinder and the same could be said here in Sao Paulo.

The First Round has pitted Paolo Lorenzi against Londero and the Italian has a 3-1 head to head advantage over him. The last two of those wins have come on the clay courts, although Lorenzi and Londero have not faced one another since 2015 and I do question the schedule Lorenzi has put together for himself in February.

The veteran took in the first clay court event this month in Cordoba, but Lorenzi then decided to play a couple of hard court events in the United States. It is a surprising decision from a player whose best successes have come on the clay courts and I do think it leaves Lorenzi vulnerable against Londero as he returns to this surface.

In the last couple of years there have been signs of decline from Lorenzi on the clay courts and in 2019 he is 1-2 having held 72% of his service games and broken in just 18% of the return games played. Compare that to Londero who has held at 80% and broken at 33% on the clay courts in 2019 and won the title in Cordoba and I do endorse the Argentinian being set as the favourite in this First Round match.

I do have to respect Lorenzi as being someone who can make life very difficult for players on the clay courts when he is feeling at his best. He should be confident after putting some wins together on the hard courts over the last couple of weeks too and I don't anticipate the change in surface to affect the veteran who has enjoyed playing on the clay courts throughout his career.

However I can't ignore the signs of decline of his ability on this surface and Juan Ignacio Londero has been playing well enough to put Lorenzi under pressure. I would not be that surprised if we see three sets to separate the players, but Londero looks like he has the edge both on the return and the serve and he can win this match and cover the number to move through to the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jaume Munar - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Danielle Collins @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-3, - 2.74 Units (10 Units Staked, - 27.40% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (February 25th)

The Tennis Tour is a long one for the players but it can also feel like a long one when it comes to making Picks from week to week.

I honestly don't know anyone who can say with a straight face that they can pick winner after winner in each passing week so you have to expect there are going to be some tough times and the first one I suffered through in the 2019 season took place last week.

I had a horrible time picking the WTA Dubai matches, while I didn't have a lot more success anywhere else in what turned into a poor week. After the Friday action I was convinced the best policy was to take the weekend to reset and try and get back on the horse on Monday.

There is another stop in Dubai this week as the ATP players take in a tournament for the week with the tournament here considered an ATP 500 one. That means Roger Federer is back on the court after his surprise loss at the Australian Open in the Fourth Round, but he is not the top Seed with that place taken by Kei Nishikori.

We have another ATP 500 event being played in Acapulco which is headed up by Rafael Nadal, while the only WTA event being played this week takes place at the same venue.

Finally the Golden Swing in South America comes to a close this week with a stop in Sao Paulo.

After this the entire Tour will shift attention to the two big North American events that are played in March beginning with Indian Wells and moving through to Miami. That will conclude the hard court season until July and the build towards the French Open will begin in April which is always a time I love watching tennis even more than normal.


The Tennis Picks from the Acapulco event will be added to the thread on Monday with the order of play to be released at some point during Sunday evening. Before that I have had a look at the ATP events in Dubai and Sao Paulo and you can see my Picks below as I look to get this week off to a positive start after the disappointment of last week.


Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: One of the players on the Tour that I don't like opposing too much is Damir Dzumhur and the main reason for that is there is clearly a talented player there. When he is feeling his best tennis he can be very tough to beat, but I think this spread is at least one game shorter than it should be when he faces Marton Fucsovics in the First Round at the ATP Dubai tournament.

The conditions in Dubai tend to play a bit faster than the other hard courts on the Tour which is always something you want to consider when making picks from this tournament. We will know more about the court is playing after a couple of days here, but I think a faster court might not be too the liking of either of these players which should negate the factor.

Over the last thirteen months Dzumhur has been under some pressure on the hard courts because his serve has been a weakness. So far in 2019 Dzumhur is holding just 52% of the service games he has played on the hard courts and that means he is under immense pressure to get his return game working way above the level you can really expect from anyone on the Tour.

That pressure to break back and stay in matches may be the reason Dzumhur has only broken in just under 17% of return games despite the return being a strength for him. His numbers on that side of his tennis are someway down on 2018, but Dzumhur has more to offer although we may not see that completely in this one against a player who has reached one Final on the hard courts already in 2019.

The one thing Marton Fucsovics has done very well in 2019 on this surface is beat the players he is expected to beat. He might have an 8-5 record on the hard courts, but Fucsovics is 7-1 against players Ranked outside the top 20 and his numbers have backed that up with especially the serve where Fucsovics has held at a much higher rate when facing those outside the elite of the Tour.

These two players met in Shanghai at the back end of the 2018 season and it was the Fucsovics serve which proved to be the difference maker. I think that may be the case here too and I think he can cover a number I believe is one short of where it should be at the least.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: The ATP Dubai tournament has been one that the top names have been happy to play as it covers the ATP 500 commitment they need to fulfil for their World Rankings and the financial rewards have made it worthwhile for them. Over the years we have had some of the very best take the title home in Dubai and this year the headline player on the ATP Tour heading to the tournament is Roger Federer.

He is scheduled to play on Monday in the opening evening session of the tournament and the Number 2 Seed should be able to make his way through to the Second Round without too many difficulties.

Roger Federer faces his friend Philipp Kohlschreiber and the two veterans will be very much aware of what the other brings to the court. This is going to be their fourteenth professional match against each other and it is Federer who has won the previous thirteen matches including all seven played on the hard courts.

The last of those of matches came a little over twelve months ago and while Federer has remained pretty steady on the hard courts, Kohlschreiber is clearly a declining force. It is the return numbers that have really shown that in the last few years on the hard courts, but Kohlschreiber may feel he can serve his way into a competitive match.

So far in 2019 Kohlschreiber has held 89% of his service games and it has to be noted that Federer's return game let him down at the Australian Open. While he is still playing at a very high level, Federer's return has just shown signs of decline too in each of the last three years and I do wonder if he can turn that around at this stage of his career.

Roger Federer's serve is still a huge weapon for him though and I think that can be used to pressure Kohlschreiber in this one. It is a huge number for him to cover when you think of the way he was returning in Melbourne, especially if Kohlschreiber is at his best on that side of his tennis, but the match up is a good one for Federer and I think the odds against quote for him to cover this number has to be worth considering.

In their matches against one another on the hard courts, Kohlschreiber has not had a lot of success returning the Federer serve. He did serve very well to get out of a couple of jams when they played in Rotterdam in February 2018, but I think Kohlschreiber may just feel the pressure against someone who has broken him in 1/4 return games on the hard courts in their seven matches on this surface.

That could lead to the breaks of serve Federer needs to cover a big number and I will look for the former World Number 1 to get this week off to an impressive start.


Roberto Carballas Baena v Maximilian Marterer: The layers are having a hard time separating these two players in the opening Round of the ATP Sao Paolo tournament which begins the main draw action on Monday.

Both Roberto Carballas Baena and Maximilian Marterer have taken in the South American Golden Swing but neither has been able to make the kind of impact they would have liked. At least Carballas Baena has reached the Quarter Final in one of the three events that have been played over the last month, which is considerably better than any run Marterer has been able to produce.

It is not easy to produce the big serving numbers on the clay courts as it can be on the hard courts, but both Carballas Baena and Marterer have looked after that side of their game well enough. The slight edge has to be given to the lefty serve of Marterer and I think that is why the layers believe this could be a tough match to predict because Carballas Baena has been having some difficulty in getting through his service games over the last month.

The Spaniard has still held almost 75% of his service games, but there is room for improvement on that front. However I am giving him more chance of winning this match because of the return of serve where Carballas Baena has had more success than Marterer on the clay.

Over the last twelve months Marterer is only breaking at a little under 19% of return games played on the clay courts and that makes it tough to believe in him on this surface where holding serve can be so difficult. If Marterer falls behind it is tougher to think he can recover compared with Carballas Baena whose break percentage is at 30% over the same time period.

I won't be surprised at all if we need to see the full three sets to determine which of these players is going to move through to the Second Round. However I think Carballas Baena's return game coupled with more wins produced over the last month compared with Marterer could prove to be the difference on the day in what is a pick 'em contest.

This will be the fifth meeting between Carballas Baena and Marterer with all four previous matches played on the clay courts. Those have been split 2-2, but the two wins for the Spaniard have been much more convincing than Marterer's including their last match which was played in May 2018. It is Carballas Baena who has held at 70% compared with Marterer's 62% in those previous matches and I think the Spaniard can take the lead in their professional head to head.


Taro Daniel - 1.5 games v Marco Trungelliti: One of the most memorable images of the French Open last year had to be the post Marco Trungelliti put onto his social media pages showing him travelling in a car between his mother and grandmother from Barcelona to Paris. A late 'Lucky Loser' spot had opened up for Trungelliti into the main draw at the second Grand Slam of the 2018 season, but he had left the site and had to make the journey back to Paris as he highlighted the life of those lower down the World Rankings.

A win in the First Round only added to the story, but Trungelliti has not really made a consistent impact at the higher levels of the Tour. The Argentinian has yet to crack the top 100 of the World Rankings, but he should be comfortable on the clay courts with the majority of his time spent on the surface in 2018.

Those matches have mainly come at the Challenger level and Trungelliti has yet to have any success on this South American Golden Swing having lost both matches played in Qualifiers over the last month. It has been a real struggle for Trungelliti when it comes to holding his serve, but the bigger issue is the 5% break percentage he has through those two matches where he has won a total of thirteen games in four sets.

His opponent Taro Daniel has not exactly been pulling up too many trees of his own, but it did need eventual Rio de Janeiro Champion to knock him out in the Second Round last week. While he has yet to really get things going in 2019 on the clay courts, Daniel has been decent on the surface in recent years and I think he can edge out Trungelliti.

The numbers do suggest this could be a close match and the layers tend to agree, but I think Daniel and Trungelliti tend to operate at different levels. Taro Daniel has been very strong when he has faced opponents outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings on the clay courts while Trungelliti does not play too many opponents inside the top 100.

You have to respect the fact that Marco Trungelliti will be very comfortable on the clay courts, but Daniel can edge him out in this one and I will back the latter to cover the games in this one too.

MY PICKS: Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roberto Carballas Baena @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Taro Daniel - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 38.58 Units (363 Units Staked, + 10.63% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (March 2nd)

The Tennis Picks from Thursday were all being played at the ATP and WTA tournaments in Acapulco so I will add the 'weekly totals' to this thread on Friday morning.

Any Picks from either the Sao Paulo or Acapulco tournaments from the matches scheduled to be played on Friday will also be added at that time, but I will begin with a single pick from the two ATP Dubai Semi Final matches that are set to be played.


Filip Krajinovic + 2.5 games v Lucas Pouille: Some times you have to look in the mirror and admit where you are wrong and my feelings about Lucas Pouille and his limited game have to be put to one side.

Regardless of what the numbers say about Pouille, he seems to just find a way to hang around in matches and I have to give credit to the clear mental resolve he demonstrates on a weekly basis on the Tour.

After reaching the Final in Marseille last week, Pouille is into the Semi Final in Dubai and he is perhaps the favourite to go on and win the tournament. However I don't think he will have an easy day in the office against Filip Krajinovic who has flown up the World Rankings thanks to some very strong results at Challenger level before upsetting his way through to the Paris Masters Final.

Krajinovic has clearly earned some confidence from that run and he has been playing well enough in 2018 to feel he can keep this match very close. The serve has been important for both players, but it is Krajinovic who has displayed the better returning ability and he should have beaten Pouille in Marseille last week.

Like his opponent, Krajinovic has backed up a decent week with another good showing in Dubai and the numbers suggest he could overturn the defeat to Pouille last week. As long as he serves to the standard he has produced this week and in 2018, I like Krajinovic to keep this close at the least by taking one set, but there is also every chance he can upset the Frenchman through to the Dubai Final too.


Horacio Zeballos v Rogerio Dutra Silva: The layers are finding it hard to separate these two players at the Sao Paulo Quarter Final stage and I do think it has the making of a tight match.

Both Horacio Zeballos and Rogerio Dutra Silva have had a couple of strong wins this week, although the form has to go to Dutra Silva who has been a little more dominant in his wins.

However it is Zeballos who has the stand out win having beaten Gael Monfils in three tough sets on Thursday. That is the second time this week that Zeballos has had to win a deciding set and I do wonder if there is going to be a little fatigue which can put him in a tough spot in this match.

Dutra Silva has had it much easier with back to back straight sets wins and he is playing with some confidence. I do think the home crowd will also give Dutra Silva a boost and I am not surprised the layers are finding it hard to separate the players.

Both have served pretty well on the clay courts, but it is Zeballos who has the slight edge and I think he will be able to create a few opportunities against the serve. It is likely to be another match that goes the distance for Zeballos, but he has beaten a home favourite here in Sao Paulo already this week and I will look for him to overcome any fatigue and work his way through to the Semi Final.


Nicolas Jarry + 2.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: He may have reached the Final in Quito last month, but Albert Ramos-Vinolas should be disappointed with his performances during the South American Golden Swing.

He has lost some poor matches and is just 2-2 from his last three tournaments on the clay courts which should be his favoured surface. Ramos-Vinolas has perhaps not returned as well as he would have liked to make life a little easier for himself, but he should be motivated to earn revenge over Nicolas Jarry who beat him in Rio last week.

Jarry went down in the Semi Final in Rio to eventual winner Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, but he has bounced back this week and reached a third Quarter Final during the Golden Swing.

My one concern for Jarry has to be the amount of tennis he has played over the last two weeks especially as he has needed a final set decider to win both matches this week. However Jarry has been serving very, very well for the most part and that has allowed him to take his chances on the break points as opponents have just been put under some pressure.

I would expect Ramos-Vinolas to be better in this match than he was in his defeat to Jarry in Rio, but I still think it is worth taking the games with the strong serving Chilean. His World Ranking is not the best, but Jarry has been playing above that level and I will take the games and look for him to keep this one close.


Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Jared Donaldson: I was pretty surprised by the dominant win Jared Donaldson produced over Feliciano Lopez in the Quarter Final, but matching that level is asking a lot from the young American.

Donaldson has been returning well so far in Acapulco, but I would be surprised if he is able to have as much success as he did against Lopez when he faces Kevin Anderson. The South African has been very solid again this week as he reaches yet another Semi Final in 2018 and I think Anderson deserves a lot of credit for the performances which have taken him into the top ten of the World Rankings.

The Anderson serve has been a potent weapon throughout 2018 and it was the difference maker against Hyeon Chung in the Quarter Final too. It has also meant Anderson can approach return games with some confidence and he managed better numbers than his season stats for the third match in a row.

There has been a clear decline in the return numbers in each passing Round though and Donaldson does have a very good serve which has been working well. However this is a player who has still got a tendency to throw in a loose service game from time to time and I think that could be a huge blow to his chances of beating Anderson.

Donaldson has some decent return numbers thanks to the way he has been playing this week with three very strong wins. Those return numbers are impressive, but the rest of 2018 has seen him have some difficulties and the win over Lopez showed return numbers far greater than those produced in his other matches against top 50 Ranked players in 2018.

I will look for Anderson to use his serve to put the pressure on Donaldson which Lopez failed to produce in the Quarter Final. That should help Anderson reach yet another Final in 2018 and I will look for him to cover this number.


Lesia Tsurenko - 2.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: The defending Champion Lesia Tsurenko crushed Kristina Mladenovic in the Quarter Final on Thursday and she has been in very strong form all week in Acapulco.

It is clearly a tournament and conditions that Tsurenko has enjoyed and the level being produced at the moment should be too much for Daria Gavrilova who had a much tougher path through to the Semi Final on Thursday.

The problem for Gavrilova is her serve has been vulnerable and the way Tsurenko has been returning it would not be a surprise to me if she actually won more points against the serve than Gavrilova is able to hold onto. When you begin to feel that has a decent chance of happening, Tsurenko looks a decent favourite to back in this one.

I am more confident with the pick considering how well Tsurenko has been serving so far this week too and she may be able to restrict what Gavrilova is able to do on the return. The Australian has been returning very well this week and it has helped her through difficult moments in matches, but a confident Tsurenko may make it that much harder to fight her way back into the match once she moves ahead.

I will look for Tsurenko to have the better of this match either side of the court and I think she is going to move through to the Final with a cover of this handicap.

MY PICKS: Filip Krajinovic + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Horacio Zeballos @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Nicolas Jarry + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Lesia Tsurenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-12, - 6.14 Units (44 Units Staked, - 13.95% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (February 28th)

It has been a difficult start to the week for the Tennis Picks after two very strong weeks which have produced over 40 units of profits to move the 2018 season into a positive position.

Tuesday was a little frustrating with Nicolas Kicker missing his cover by a single game which can be attributed to his failure to serve out the first set at 6-5. Joao Sousa also lost his match despite having four break points at 4-4 in the decider and holding three match points in the final set tie-breaker.

Two other picks were simply poor picks and never really had much of a chance of success, but it could have been a much better day all around.

At the time I am writing this, the Acapulco Picks have yet to be played with the two from Tuesday both taking place in the early hours of Wednesday morning in London. I won't be up watching, but instead will be trying to stay warm with the 'Beast from the East' settling in for the remainder of the week before we get some more appealing temperatures, although wet weather will arrive instead of the snow.


EDIT: Dominic Thiem became the second player to reach match point in time for a cover as he led 6-3, 5-4 but just lost his concentration which resulted in a much tighter match than needed. Thiem and Joao Sousa could have turned the entire day around, but instead it was a tough Tuesday.


Borna Coric - 2.5 games v Benoit Paire: There isn't a lot of places between these two players in the World Rankings, but it is the lower Ranked Borna Coric who comes in as the favourite to beat Benoit Paire.

He has performed well in Dubai in the past and Coric had an impressive win over Richard Gasquet in the First Round which has to give him some confidence.

So far 2018 has not been a great start for Coric, but there is definitely better to come from the youngster. His serve has not been as effective as it can be, but Coric dominated behind that shot in the First Round win over Gasquet.

Coric has definitely been a little stronger when it comes to the return of serve compared with the last twelve months and that could be important in this match. He is facing Benoit Paire whose numbers on the hard courts have been pretty steady and that has continued in 2018 where his serve has been decent enough on this surface but the return has not been as strong as the Frenchman would have liked.

There is a slight concern that Coric is not able to produce his best tennis for the second day in succession, but the previous successes in Dubai coupled with an opponent whose numbers can make him vulnerable on the hard courts leads me to believing the favourite wins this one. It will be tight at times and Paire is very capable of producing a big match with some solid performances behind him in 2018, but I think Coric is able to get past him with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 kind of win.


Yuichi Sugita v Jan-Lennard Struff: Both of these players got through their First Round matches in Dubai very comfortably and the layers are finding it tough to separate Yuichi Sugita and Jan-Lennard Struff.

It is going to be a close match, but I think the Sugita performances on the hard courts are at a slightly higher level than what Struff produces, particularly they get onto the outdoor hard courts.

At times Struff can be very solid with a strong serve backed up by decent enough groundstrokes to put the pressure on his opponents. However those are times on the hard courts and too many times Struff finds it difficult to sustain those levels and the return of serve can be a real problem for the German.

The Sugita serve has been better than it may look because of the way this player has been able to play off the ground to make sure he wins enough points to keep his nose in front. However he has been the superior returner of the two players in this Second Round match and I think he can get the better of Struff in this pick 'em contest.

Three sets may be needed, but I will back Sugita to come through for a place in the Quarter Final in Dubai on Thursday.


Karen Khachanov v Lucas Pouille: This is a repeat of the of the Final played in Marseille a few days ago and I am going to back Karen Khachanov to frank his win over Lucas Pouille when they meet in Dubai.

Both players had to dig deep to come through their First Round matches on Tuesday, but the confidence of beating this opponent just a few days ago has to work in Khachanov's favour.

I am a big fan of the talented Russian and I think he is showing a lot more potential than Pouille who I don't rate as high as his World Ranking may suggest.

One of the biggest criticisms I have of Pouille remains the return of serve and winning enough points on that side of the court. He is going to have show something to do enough to trouble Khachanov who continues to serve at a high level, while the youngster has also shown some improvement when it comes to his own return of serve which is going to set him up for a big move up the World Rankings.

The target for Khachanov has to be a top 20 World Ranking by the end of this season and he is well on the way to that. Being able to back up title winning weeks like he had in Marseille with another strong showing in Dubai would underline that and I do think he can win a pick 'em match with his superior return numbers helping him past the Frenchman in conditions that should be far from alien to Khachanov who spends a lot of time in Dubai.


Federico Delbonis - 2.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: The South American Golden Swing has similar looking fields from week to week and it is no surprise when you get to see a couple of rematches at this time of the season.

We have another in the Second Round when Federico Delbonis and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez meet in Sao Paulo and I like the Argentine to make it back to back wins over the Spaniard.

It can be difficult to beat the same player in a short space of time simply because they have gotten a feel as to what to expect and can make a few adjustments to change things around. That is what Garcia-Lopez will be looking to do, but Delbonis has been serving well enough to keep him under some pressure, especially with the Garcia-Lopez serve having some vulnerabilities.

Garcia-Lopez has not been serving as well as he would have hoped in the last couple of weeks and that has highlighted a poorer than expected return of serve. It won't be easy to improve those numbers against Delbonis whose serve is still making sure he is able to hold enough times on this surface to then allow his return of serve game to flourish.

I expect this will be as tight as when they met in Buenos Aires which ended in a straight sets win for Delbonis, but one in which he only won eight more points than Garcia-Lopez. This one should be a little closer on the scoreboard, but I think the Delbonis serve and return has been more effective than Garcia-Lopez' and I expect that will eventually lead to a win for the Argentinian and with a cover of this number games.


Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: It has been a strong season in terms of results for Kevin Anderson who has reached the Final in Pune and won the inaugural title in New York earlier this month. However, Anderson will be the first to look for areas of improvement and there are a couple of places where he can become even stronger.

While the return points won are of a similar level to the last twelve months on this surface, Anderson is not breaking at the same kind of rate and that is where he will want to be a little more productive.

He should have chances to do that against Adrian Mannarino who has been dominant against players lower down the World Rankings, but whose numbers shrink the higher up the opponent is Ranked. That isn't a huge surprise, but there is a significant difference in the way the Frenchman is able to return against the top players and someone like Anderson is unlikely to offer up much of a reprieve with the way he has been playing.

The Mannarino serve can be a decent weapon with the lefty stance giving him an edge and meaning he can steer away from the more dangerous Anderson forehand. However he has struggled against the weight of the Anderson shot in the past and I think that could be a factor again against a confident opponent.

With a little bit more improvement in the return expected, I like Anderson to win and cover this number of games in the Second Round in Acapulco.


Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Peter Gojowczyk: These two players met at the Australian Open back in January and it resulted in a fairly comfortable win for Alexander Zverev. I expect him to get the better of compatriot Peter Gojowczyk in the Second Round in Acapulco too with the superior serve and return game giving him the edge.

However he will have to respect Gojowczyk who reached the Final in Delray Beach a few days ago and who has played well in 2018.

Gojowczyk has been producing enough quality behind his serve to keep the pressure on opponents, but that is going to be tested by the returning of Zverev who will believe he can get into enough rallies to beat his fellow German.

Ultimately it may come down to scoreboard pressure with Zverev capable of serving very well and making sure opponents do not get a lot of chances to break serve. It was the serve that really set the tone for his win over Gojowczyk at the Australian Open, while Zverev should be able to convert one or two chances to move ahead in sets.

The long week in Delray Beach could also play a part in this one and I will back Zverev to win and cover with a 7-6, 6-3 kind of victory in the Second Round.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 games v David Ferrer: The head to head between Juan Martin Del Potro and David Ferrer may be led by the latter, but it is Del Potro who has gotten the better of recent matches and I think he can do that again in Acapulco.

David Ferrer had a very good win over Andrey Rublev in the First Round, but there is no hiding from the fact that his numbers have seriously declined. He will try and expose the Del Potro backhand, but I think Del Potro will get a good enough read on enough returns to put the pressure on his Spanish opponent from the off in some points.

Del Potro's serve has been a big weapon for him so far in 2018 in his run back into the top ten of the World Rankings, and I think he can use that to put pressure on Ferrer in this match.

The numbers have been very good for Del Potro and I think finding those levels will be enough to beat Ferrer again having already done that in Auckland this season. Del Potro has been returning well enough to think he will have a few chances to break the Ferrer serve and his own serve should restrict Ferrer's successes even if the latter is still a decent enough returner.

At the end of this one I would expect Del Potro to earn a break more in each set of a straight sets win and I will back him to cover these games.

MY PICKS: Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yuichi Sugita @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-7, - 8.90 Units (20 Units Staked, - 44.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (February 27th)

Monday has proved to be a busy day which means I am simply going to be place by Tennis Picks from the matches scheduled below.

I will add those from Acapulco and Sao Paulo on Tuesday morning as the new week of matches really get going on Tuesday with a lot of matches scheduled through the day.


MY PICKS: Joao Sousa @ 2.30 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Ilya Ivashka + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denis Istomin + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Nicolas Kicker - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Hyeon Chung - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2 Units (6 Units Staked, - 33.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (February 26th)

The last two weeks have produced plenty of winners when it comes to the Tennis Picks and that has also turned the 2018 season right around and into a positive position.

It has been a good period in a long season and I am hoping the tournaments to be played in Acapulco, Dubai and Sao Paulo can keep the momentum going.

Only one of those tournaments are featuring the WTA players, but it is an important week ahead of the first major event outside of the Grand Slam tournaments when the Indian Wells Masters begins in around ten days from now.

Any Picks from Acapulco will be added to this thread on Monday, but I am going to begin with a couple of Tennis Picks from the other two events being played.


Marcos Baghdatis - 1.5 games v Victor Troicki: The Dubai field used to be one of the better ones outside of the Masters and Grand Slam events on the ATP Tour, but the last couple of editions have perhaps looked underwhelming.

The same can be said this year and the First Round matches on Monday are tough to get a real feel for, although this is the one match that does stand out for me.

I like Marcos Baghdatis to beat Victor Troicki in this match between two veterans who are clearly not as good as they once were. However I think Baghdatis is perhaps still playing at a higher level than Troicki while the latter has had some disappointing performances in recent weeks.

Troicki has won the last couple of matches against Baghdatis but he was beaten in Dubai when they last played here.

I will look for Baghdatis to get past Troicki in this one with his superior returning perhaps paying dividends in this match. It could go the distance, but I will take Baghdatis to open this new week on the Tour.


Leonardo Mayer - 2.5 games v Gastao Elias: The only pick I will take from the Sao Paulo Monday First Round matches will be backing Leonardo Mayer to beat Gastao Elias on the clay courts.

There may not be as much between Mayer and Elias as the layers think, but I do think the Argentine player can get the better of this one.

Leonardo Mayer and Gastao Elias have both been serving decently, but the edge has to be given to Mayer who is able to make use of his second serve a little better than Elias. The latter has also had some issues when moving up and competing at the full ATP level and I expect that to show up at some point.

Neither player can really be considered a top returner and that is what makes this a closer match than some may think, but again Mayer may have the slight advantage.

Overall it feels like it can help him win this match and earn a cover of this number of games and I am going to back Leonardo Mayer to get it done on his way through to the Second Round.


Andrey Rublev - 1.5 games v David Ferrer: This is a match between an improving young player and a declining veteran and I am looking for Andrey Rublev to get the better of David Ferrer for the second time in 2018 on a hard court.

There is no doubt that Rublev is improving on a weekly basis, although he is far from unbeatable when he faces the top names. However there is a clear improvement on the way he has been returning and that has led to more break points being taken and I think he is going to keep Ferrer under some pressure in this one.

Ferrer's serve has always been a vulnerable part of his game, but I think the declining number have come from a slight loss of movement around the court which is making it much harder to find the depth off the ground that took him into the top five of the World Rankings. That has shown up with the percentage of points won behind serve being on the decline and Rublev should have an edge on the serve.

The Spaniard is still a dangerous returner though and that will likely mean a few chances of his own in this one and there is a potential for a third set decider to be needed. However I think Rublev might just have a little more confidence in his overall game at the moment and he can win this First Round match in Acapulco on Monday.

It could be close with a number of break points for both players, but I will look for Rublev to continue to show his improvement on the way past a veteran.

MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Season 2018: + 20.20 Units (290 Units Staked, + 6.97% Yield)