This has become a frustrating week with missed break point chances a feature of too many picks.
It is one thing getting into a position to earn those break points, but the disappointment of those being missed only to see opponents take the limited chances that come their way is hard to take.
You have to ride with that during the grass court campaign though and hope some of that luck evens up through the next few weeks.
Nicolas Mahut - 1.5 games v Sam Querrey: Both of these players have had considerable success on the grass courts in their career and you can't take anything away from the performances Sam Querrey and Nicolas Mahut have produced so far this week. That should mean both are confident and a big serving display from each could mean we are going to see limited break points in this one.
Taking those will be difficult too, but I do think Mahut is very comfortable in Hertogenbosch and that could prove to be a difference maker in this match. There isn't much between the players as both can be very tough to attack when they are serving big on this surface.
However Querrey is much more comfortable playing from the baseline and he may be asked to make some awkward passes against a very good net player in Mahut. That pressure can wear players down when they don't have the best returns and I think Mahut will favour himself in the rallies that get past four shots, even when Querrey is serving.
They played a very tight match at the US Open last year and I think this one will be very close too, but I will look for Mahut to just make the big plays at the right moments to record a 75, 76 win.
MY PICKS: Nicolas Mahut - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-12, - 5.06 Units (44 Units Staked, - 11.5% Yield)
Showing posts with label Ricoh Open Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ricoh Open Picks. Show all posts
Friday, 10 June 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (June 10th)
A bit of bad luck coupled with a couple of bad picks made it a more difficult Thursday compared to Wednesday.
The grass courts can be difficult for predictions because a match can quickly become very tight if chances to break serve are not taken when the come along. It was the main reason Juan Martin Del Potro didn't earn the cover on Thursday as he had plenty of opportunities to earn a couple of breaks in the second set of what was a comfortable 64, 64 win over John Millman.
Roger Federer also made it through to the Quarter Finals, but he wouldn't have expected such a tight battle against Taylor Fritz which could have easily gone the other way with a point here or there going in favour of the young American.
For a lot of the time Federer did look physically comfortable as he gets his match fitness back up to the full level he expects.
Friday is all about the Quarter Finals in the various grass court tournaments being played this week and I am looking to get back to winning ways.
Sam Querrey - 3.5 games v Stefan Kozlov: This has already been a big tournament for 18 year old Stefan Kozlov who won his first ever match on the main Tour. He backed that up with an upset win over Steve Johnson, but this is a big challenge for him against Sam Querrey who is very comfortable on the grass courts and has looked good so far this week.
Winning matches will build confidence for any young player on the Tour, but it will be difficult for Kozlov to handle the scoreboard pressure that someone like Querrey will bring to the court. The higher Ranked American has been in fine serving form and that is only going to increase the pressure on Kozlov if Querrey is able to rattle through his service games as he has done for much of the first two Rounds.
Stefan Kozlov was beaten by Denis Kudla on the grass courts in Manchester last week and he didn't have a lot of success in previous years on the surface. The higher level that Querrey can produce should make the difference in this one and I think he will be offered up some chances to break the Kozlov serve.
There were 21 break point opportunities handed out by Kozlov in his first two matches and giving those up to a big serving Querrey should lead to the latter coming through 64, 64.
Bernard Tomic v Nicolas Mahut: This Quarter Final in Hertogenbosch looks incredibly close to call as two players very comfortable on the grass courts meet each other. Nicolas Mahut is the defending Champion, but Bernard Tomic is looking for a couple of big runs in preparation for Wimbledon.
There is a different approach that both Mahut and Tomic will take to this Quarter Final match- Mahut will look for the big serve to set up his approaches to the net and will use plenty of slice to get to the net and force Tomic to pass him over and over again.
For Tomic it will be much more about control from the baseline and trying to attack the second serve, but the Australian will also have to serve well to keep Mahut from taking control of the rallies.
I have no doubt that this is going to be a keenly contested match, but I think Tomic looked focused on his tennis in the first match he played here this week. He is also the better returner so might extract some volleying errors from Mahut and I think he can come through in three very highly contested sets.
Dominic Thiem - 2.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: The grass courts are the last surface on which Dominic Thiem is trying to find some consistency having produced good results on the clay and the hard courts. That has seen him move into the World Number 7 spot in the Rankings and Thiem has had a solid win in the Second Round here over Sam Groth.
This is a tough match for Thiem who faces a experienced grass court player in Mikhail Youzhny but he should be looking to beat a veteran like this. It has been a good week for Youzhny who has battled through two Rounds, his first back to back wins on the main Tour since the Canadian Masters last year.
The Russian has all the grass court nous to give Thiem problems, and the latter has to find a way to give himself the time to unleash his shots on a surface where the balls come through quicker and often lower than players think. The win over Groth won't have helped in terms of building a rhythm but Thiem has a serve that should work well on the grass and I expect he will have plenty of joy in the rallies against the veteran.
Youzhny lost all three grass court matches he played last season and I think Thiem will prove too good in a 75, 64 win.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Florian Mayer: A few years of injuries have affected Florian Mayer and his ability to stay in a position to earn his place in these kind of tournaments. He is currently outside the top 200 in the World Rankings so his two wins in the main draw will give Mayer some important Ranking points and he is a very good player on the grass.
The second serve is not a strength, but Mayer has shown through the week that his first serve can set up the points for him, although the challenge is markedly stronger on Friday. The German has played well in these pre-Wimbledon tournaments in the past in his home country so playing in Stuttgart won't bother Mayer but inspire him.
He will need all of his experience when taking on Roger Federer who was close to exiting the tournament at the hands of Taylor Fritz in the Second Round. That three set win will have tested how Federer is feeling having returned to the Tour for the first time since the Rome Masters and back on his favourite surface.
Federer has won all six previous matches against Mayer and I think he will have a better time returning against this opponent than he did against Fritz. I do look for Federer to be better behind serve too and that should lead him to a 63, 64 win in this Quarter Final.
Radek Stepanek + 2.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: This has been an impressive run from Radek Stepanek to the Quarter Final here in Stuttgart having come through the Qualifiers. It follows a really impressive performance in a defeat to Andy Murray at the French Open and Stepanek is a player that is much more comfortable on the grass courts.
He will look to base a lot of his threat from the first serve and an ability to close angles at the net and Stepanek had a very strong serving display in the win over Marin Cilic. This match up has been a good one for Stepanek in the past with seven wins from eight matches against Philipp Kohlschreiber, although the last of those was three years ago.
The German will have the support of the home fans behind him and has been in good form in his first two wins in Stuttgart. Kohlschreiber will need to serve well to keep Stepanek at bay because his second serve is likely to be attacked with the Czech player looking to again close the net and force his opponent to make the passes.
This has all the makings of a match that might need three sets to decide it and I like Stepanek's chances of keeping this competitive. He looks to have matched up well with Kohlschreiber, loves the grass and has some momentum behind him as Stepanek looks to move up the World Rankings and I will take the games in this one.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 games v Gilles Simon: Matches between Gilles Simon and Juan Martin Del Potro have been very competitive in the past but their two previous matches on the grass have landed in favour of the latter. The head to head might be three wins apiece, but those two wins on the grass will give Del Potro the edge especially in the form he has shown so far this week.
The serving has been very much on point from Del Potro and he will need to be at his best in that aspect of his game to see off the Frenchman. There will be chances to break serve if he can look after his own serve and Del Potro's flat hitting can be a problem for opponents on this quicker surface.
Simply being the bigger hitter won't be enough for Del Potro who has to take the chances that come his way in better fashion than he did against John Millman in the Second Round. Simon has shown that he can diffuse big hitters in wins over Milos Raonic and Tomas Berdych on the grass last year, but I do think Del Potro has a little more to his game on the grass than those two players.
Del Potro will employ the slice a lot more than Raonic and Berdych and I think his shots have a little more off the ground while those come very flat and can stay low on the grass. It should be a competitive match, but I think Del Potro can come through 76, 64 for a place in the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Sam Querrey - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Betway (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Radek Stepanek + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-8, - 0.12 Units (32 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
The grass courts can be difficult for predictions because a match can quickly become very tight if chances to break serve are not taken when the come along. It was the main reason Juan Martin Del Potro didn't earn the cover on Thursday as he had plenty of opportunities to earn a couple of breaks in the second set of what was a comfortable 64, 64 win over John Millman.
Roger Federer also made it through to the Quarter Finals, but he wouldn't have expected such a tight battle against Taylor Fritz which could have easily gone the other way with a point here or there going in favour of the young American.
For a lot of the time Federer did look physically comfortable as he gets his match fitness back up to the full level he expects.
Friday is all about the Quarter Finals in the various grass court tournaments being played this week and I am looking to get back to winning ways.
Sam Querrey - 3.5 games v Stefan Kozlov: This has already been a big tournament for 18 year old Stefan Kozlov who won his first ever match on the main Tour. He backed that up with an upset win over Steve Johnson, but this is a big challenge for him against Sam Querrey who is very comfortable on the grass courts and has looked good so far this week.
Winning matches will build confidence for any young player on the Tour, but it will be difficult for Kozlov to handle the scoreboard pressure that someone like Querrey will bring to the court. The higher Ranked American has been in fine serving form and that is only going to increase the pressure on Kozlov if Querrey is able to rattle through his service games as he has done for much of the first two Rounds.
Stefan Kozlov was beaten by Denis Kudla on the grass courts in Manchester last week and he didn't have a lot of success in previous years on the surface. The higher level that Querrey can produce should make the difference in this one and I think he will be offered up some chances to break the Kozlov serve.
There were 21 break point opportunities handed out by Kozlov in his first two matches and giving those up to a big serving Querrey should lead to the latter coming through 64, 64.
Bernard Tomic v Nicolas Mahut: This Quarter Final in Hertogenbosch looks incredibly close to call as two players very comfortable on the grass courts meet each other. Nicolas Mahut is the defending Champion, but Bernard Tomic is looking for a couple of big runs in preparation for Wimbledon.
There is a different approach that both Mahut and Tomic will take to this Quarter Final match- Mahut will look for the big serve to set up his approaches to the net and will use plenty of slice to get to the net and force Tomic to pass him over and over again.
For Tomic it will be much more about control from the baseline and trying to attack the second serve, but the Australian will also have to serve well to keep Mahut from taking control of the rallies.
I have no doubt that this is going to be a keenly contested match, but I think Tomic looked focused on his tennis in the first match he played here this week. He is also the better returner so might extract some volleying errors from Mahut and I think he can come through in three very highly contested sets.
Dominic Thiem - 2.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: The grass courts are the last surface on which Dominic Thiem is trying to find some consistency having produced good results on the clay and the hard courts. That has seen him move into the World Number 7 spot in the Rankings and Thiem has had a solid win in the Second Round here over Sam Groth.
This is a tough match for Thiem who faces a experienced grass court player in Mikhail Youzhny but he should be looking to beat a veteran like this. It has been a good week for Youzhny who has battled through two Rounds, his first back to back wins on the main Tour since the Canadian Masters last year.
The Russian has all the grass court nous to give Thiem problems, and the latter has to find a way to give himself the time to unleash his shots on a surface where the balls come through quicker and often lower than players think. The win over Groth won't have helped in terms of building a rhythm but Thiem has a serve that should work well on the grass and I expect he will have plenty of joy in the rallies against the veteran.
Youzhny lost all three grass court matches he played last season and I think Thiem will prove too good in a 75, 64 win.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Florian Mayer: A few years of injuries have affected Florian Mayer and his ability to stay in a position to earn his place in these kind of tournaments. He is currently outside the top 200 in the World Rankings so his two wins in the main draw will give Mayer some important Ranking points and he is a very good player on the grass.
The second serve is not a strength, but Mayer has shown through the week that his first serve can set up the points for him, although the challenge is markedly stronger on Friday. The German has played well in these pre-Wimbledon tournaments in the past in his home country so playing in Stuttgart won't bother Mayer but inspire him.
He will need all of his experience when taking on Roger Federer who was close to exiting the tournament at the hands of Taylor Fritz in the Second Round. That three set win will have tested how Federer is feeling having returned to the Tour for the first time since the Rome Masters and back on his favourite surface.
Federer has won all six previous matches against Mayer and I think he will have a better time returning against this opponent than he did against Fritz. I do look for Federer to be better behind serve too and that should lead him to a 63, 64 win in this Quarter Final.
Radek Stepanek + 2.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: This has been an impressive run from Radek Stepanek to the Quarter Final here in Stuttgart having come through the Qualifiers. It follows a really impressive performance in a defeat to Andy Murray at the French Open and Stepanek is a player that is much more comfortable on the grass courts.
He will look to base a lot of his threat from the first serve and an ability to close angles at the net and Stepanek had a very strong serving display in the win over Marin Cilic. This match up has been a good one for Stepanek in the past with seven wins from eight matches against Philipp Kohlschreiber, although the last of those was three years ago.
The German will have the support of the home fans behind him and has been in good form in his first two wins in Stuttgart. Kohlschreiber will need to serve well to keep Stepanek at bay because his second serve is likely to be attacked with the Czech player looking to again close the net and force his opponent to make the passes.
This has all the makings of a match that might need three sets to decide it and I like Stepanek's chances of keeping this competitive. He looks to have matched up well with Kohlschreiber, loves the grass and has some momentum behind him as Stepanek looks to move up the World Rankings and I will take the games in this one.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 games v Gilles Simon: Matches between Gilles Simon and Juan Martin Del Potro have been very competitive in the past but their two previous matches on the grass have landed in favour of the latter. The head to head might be three wins apiece, but those two wins on the grass will give Del Potro the edge especially in the form he has shown so far this week.
The serving has been very much on point from Del Potro and he will need to be at his best in that aspect of his game to see off the Frenchman. There will be chances to break serve if he can look after his own serve and Del Potro's flat hitting can be a problem for opponents on this quicker surface.
Simply being the bigger hitter won't be enough for Del Potro who has to take the chances that come his way in better fashion than he did against John Millman in the Second Round. Simon has shown that he can diffuse big hitters in wins over Milos Raonic and Tomas Berdych on the grass last year, but I do think Del Potro has a little more to his game on the grass than those two players.
Del Potro will employ the slice a lot more than Raonic and Berdych and I think his shots have a little more off the ground while those come very flat and can stay low on the grass. It should be a competitive match, but I think Del Potro can come through 76, 64 for a place in the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Sam Querrey - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Betway (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Radek Stepanek + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-8, - 0.12 Units (32 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
Wednesday, 8 June 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (June 9th)
Wednesday was cut short in Stuttgart by the storms that were in the area, but the tournament has a chance to get back on track on Thursday.
The big news in Stuttgart was the return of Roger Federer and he looked good in the first seven games played against Taylor Fritz although how his body reacts to being back on court is only going to be seen on Thursday. Federer will be second out on court as he concludes his match with Fritz and the organisers will be hoping the rain that affected Wednesday play will have moved on by Thursday morning.
It was a good day for the picks with the completed picks going 3-1 to move this week in a positive direction. That will hopefully be built upon in the next couple of days to keep the trend going and make a good start to the grass court season.
While the tennis was being played away from the casual fans, those same fans would have heard the news about Maria Sharapova who was suspended for two years until January 2018 for failing her drugs test. There will be many arguments between those who believe she made a mistake and those who will say she has been 'doping', but I do fall into the grey area between those two absolutes.
I have little doubt that Sharapova didn't know about the benefits of taking the pill she was and what extra it would give her on the court, but I am also someone who can't accuse someone of 'doping' when a drug wasn't illegal.
Morally she would have to be questioned as to why she was taking a pill if she didn't need it, but you would have to be privy to her medical records to confirm that. I do think this whole episode has destroyed her reputation and I do think a two year ban would effectively see Sharapova retire from the Tour, although I can see a situation where her appeal is heard by the CAS and the suspension reduced to January 2017.
Hopefully tennis will take what they have learned from this situation and continue to improve their own testing methods, while I am sure some of the big names in the sport will be happy to show that no one is above the law. This story is still a long way from being over though and the next stop is the CAS as Sharapova has already indicated.
Gilles Muller - 2.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: Both of these 33 year old players have had very good wins in the First Round here in Hertogenbosch which will have given them confidence to take into this Second Round match. It is Guillermo Garcia-Lopez who has had the better of the previous matches as he leads 4-1 against Gilles Muller, but the most recent match came this year in Bulgaria where Muller broke his duck against the Spaniard.
This won't be the first time they have met on the grass with Garcia-Lopez recording a win over Muller in 2009 at Queens, but Muller reached the Semi Final here last season and clearly enjoys the conditions. His serve is a big weapon on the grass courts and was the reason he was able to pressurise Robin Haase in the First Round and eventually beat the home favourite.
I do think Garcia-Lopez has a decent serve and he will be able to get plenty of cheap points out of that on the grass courts, but the Spaniard is more likely to throw in a poor service game. That can be costly against someone like Muller who can get out of troubling spots with his big lefty serve compared to Garcia-Lopez who may feel the scoreboard pressure when he gets behind on serve.
This match could easily develop into a very similar feel as to when they played in Sofia earlier this season with a tight first set leading to a victory for the player that wins it. Gilles Muller can have the edge on this faster surface and I think he will work his way through to a 76, 64 win.
David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Dudi Sela: David Ferrer had a disappointing loss to Tomas Berdych at the French Open to analyse ahead of this tournament, but the move to grass isn't always a strong point for the Spaniard. However he has won the title here on a couple of occasions and Ferrer will be able to work his way into the tournament when he faces Dudi Sela in the Second Round.
The bottom line is that Sela is not going to blow anyone off court behind serve and being able to build a rhythm on the grass is important preparation for Ferrer. The points will likely be more extended than many others on this surface as both men look to use their movement around the court to work the ball around, especially as Ferrer will get only a little extra out of his own serve.
Long rallies are likely to be the outcome of this match and it will be interesting how long Ferrer needs to get used to the conditions he will be seeing. At least Sela has a match behind him, but that was a tougher than expected win over Dennis Novikov and the Israeli will have to be a lot better to see off Ferrer in this one.
The last three years have seen Ferrer make a slow start to life back on the grass which is a concern. However I think this is a match up that will suit him more than the likes of Marcos Baghdatis and Xavier Malisse who are very good grass players. Once he gets used to his surroundings, I think Ferrer wins the break point battle and comes through this Second Round match with a 64, 64 win.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v John Millman: It is hard to really place Juan Martin Del Potro's win over Grigor Dimitrov in the First Round here as his opponent has been terribly out of form. It was still an impressive performance from a player who missed the Rome Masters and the French Open to get ready for the grass court season and Del Potro looked in good form.
That win over Dimitrov saw Del Potro put in a strong serving match and he will look to do the same to put pressure on John Millman in this one. The Australian is a battler, but he doesn't have the same firepower as Del Potro and Millman will have to work much harder to prevent his serve being broken.
The serve remains a vulnerable shot for Millman and a solid win over Lucas Pouille won't disguise that even if the grass courts will aid that shot a little bit. He isn't playing the best returner on the Tour, but Del Potro will look to feast on the second serve by playing first strike tennis on a surface where it can make all the difference.
Millman has a bit more variation in his game but I think he will be overpowered during the course of the match and I like the former top ten player to come through with a 75, 63 win.
Jelena Jankovic - 5.5 games v Evgeniya Rodina: This has been a poor season for Jelena Jankovic in terms of results and I can't help feel that she is already perhaps thinking about life beyond the Tour. The poor form has seen her slip out of the top 20 in the World Rankings, but Jankovic did have a very good win in the First Round and she is playing an opponent she has dominated.
Evgeniya Rodina has not been in the best form herself and generally plays at a lower level than the main Tour so won't bump into too many players like Jankovic. Her First Round win was an expected one but she has struggled to find the consistency to break through the Jankovic defences in their three previous matches.
Last year at Wimbledon Rodina did take the first set before winning just four games in the next two sets against Jankovic. This is a surface that Jankovic does enjoy and she was a very convincing winner in the First Round which should have given her a little confidence to take into the Second Round.
The serve can be a problem for Jankovic, but she should be winning the extended rallies in this one as she extracts errors from the Rodina game. She should have plenty of chances to break the Rodina serve and I think Jankovic is able to come through with a 64, 62 win.
Johanna Konta - 5.5 games v Saisai Zheng: Last season Johanna Konta made her breakthrough on the main Tour at this time of the year as she reached the Quarter Final here in Nottingham. Konta was earning some Wild Card spots, but the last twelve months have been so impressive that the British player will come in to the events this time around inside the top 20 of the World Rankings.
So not only is Konta earning direct entry into the top tournaments around the world, but Konta is in Nottingham as the Number 2 Seed. She will expect a good run at Wimbledon having been drawn against Maria Sharapova in the First Round there last year (I don't think either player would have expected their careers to have changed so much in a single year from that match).
I am expecting Konta to get the better of Saisai Zheng, a player she has beaten twice before including a fairly straight-forward win over her at the Australian Open. Playing on the grass should give Konta more of an edge in this match and I would expect this match to be decided on her racquet.
Zheng was an easy winner in the First Round here in Nottingham, but she had been 2-9 in her previous eleven matches on the grass. The wins both came against Emily Webley-Smith and eight of those losses would have seen her beaten on this handicap. With Konta's game suited so strongly to the grass courts, I think she can beat Zheng 63, 63 and move into the Quarter Final in Nottingham for the second year in a row.
MY PICKS: Gilles Muller - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.38 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-4, + 4.32 Units (20 Units Staked, + 21.60% Yield)
The big news in Stuttgart was the return of Roger Federer and he looked good in the first seven games played against Taylor Fritz although how his body reacts to being back on court is only going to be seen on Thursday. Federer will be second out on court as he concludes his match with Fritz and the organisers will be hoping the rain that affected Wednesday play will have moved on by Thursday morning.
It was a good day for the picks with the completed picks going 3-1 to move this week in a positive direction. That will hopefully be built upon in the next couple of days to keep the trend going and make a good start to the grass court season.
While the tennis was being played away from the casual fans, those same fans would have heard the news about Maria Sharapova who was suspended for two years until January 2018 for failing her drugs test. There will be many arguments between those who believe she made a mistake and those who will say she has been 'doping', but I do fall into the grey area between those two absolutes.
I have little doubt that Sharapova didn't know about the benefits of taking the pill she was and what extra it would give her on the court, but I am also someone who can't accuse someone of 'doping' when a drug wasn't illegal.
Morally she would have to be questioned as to why she was taking a pill if she didn't need it, but you would have to be privy to her medical records to confirm that. I do think this whole episode has destroyed her reputation and I do think a two year ban would effectively see Sharapova retire from the Tour, although I can see a situation where her appeal is heard by the CAS and the suspension reduced to January 2017.
Hopefully tennis will take what they have learned from this situation and continue to improve their own testing methods, while I am sure some of the big names in the sport will be happy to show that no one is above the law. This story is still a long way from being over though and the next stop is the CAS as Sharapova has already indicated.
Gilles Muller - 2.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: Both of these 33 year old players have had very good wins in the First Round here in Hertogenbosch which will have given them confidence to take into this Second Round match. It is Guillermo Garcia-Lopez who has had the better of the previous matches as he leads 4-1 against Gilles Muller, but the most recent match came this year in Bulgaria where Muller broke his duck against the Spaniard.
This won't be the first time they have met on the grass with Garcia-Lopez recording a win over Muller in 2009 at Queens, but Muller reached the Semi Final here last season and clearly enjoys the conditions. His serve is a big weapon on the grass courts and was the reason he was able to pressurise Robin Haase in the First Round and eventually beat the home favourite.
I do think Garcia-Lopez has a decent serve and he will be able to get plenty of cheap points out of that on the grass courts, but the Spaniard is more likely to throw in a poor service game. That can be costly against someone like Muller who can get out of troubling spots with his big lefty serve compared to Garcia-Lopez who may feel the scoreboard pressure when he gets behind on serve.
This match could easily develop into a very similar feel as to when they played in Sofia earlier this season with a tight first set leading to a victory for the player that wins it. Gilles Muller can have the edge on this faster surface and I think he will work his way through to a 76, 64 win.
David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Dudi Sela: David Ferrer had a disappointing loss to Tomas Berdych at the French Open to analyse ahead of this tournament, but the move to grass isn't always a strong point for the Spaniard. However he has won the title here on a couple of occasions and Ferrer will be able to work his way into the tournament when he faces Dudi Sela in the Second Round.
The bottom line is that Sela is not going to blow anyone off court behind serve and being able to build a rhythm on the grass is important preparation for Ferrer. The points will likely be more extended than many others on this surface as both men look to use their movement around the court to work the ball around, especially as Ferrer will get only a little extra out of his own serve.
Long rallies are likely to be the outcome of this match and it will be interesting how long Ferrer needs to get used to the conditions he will be seeing. At least Sela has a match behind him, but that was a tougher than expected win over Dennis Novikov and the Israeli will have to be a lot better to see off Ferrer in this one.
The last three years have seen Ferrer make a slow start to life back on the grass which is a concern. However I think this is a match up that will suit him more than the likes of Marcos Baghdatis and Xavier Malisse who are very good grass players. Once he gets used to his surroundings, I think Ferrer wins the break point battle and comes through this Second Round match with a 64, 64 win.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games v John Millman: It is hard to really place Juan Martin Del Potro's win over Grigor Dimitrov in the First Round here as his opponent has been terribly out of form. It was still an impressive performance from a player who missed the Rome Masters and the French Open to get ready for the grass court season and Del Potro looked in good form.
That win over Dimitrov saw Del Potro put in a strong serving match and he will look to do the same to put pressure on John Millman in this one. The Australian is a battler, but he doesn't have the same firepower as Del Potro and Millman will have to work much harder to prevent his serve being broken.
The serve remains a vulnerable shot for Millman and a solid win over Lucas Pouille won't disguise that even if the grass courts will aid that shot a little bit. He isn't playing the best returner on the Tour, but Del Potro will look to feast on the second serve by playing first strike tennis on a surface where it can make all the difference.
Millman has a bit more variation in his game but I think he will be overpowered during the course of the match and I like the former top ten player to come through with a 75, 63 win.
Jelena Jankovic - 5.5 games v Evgeniya Rodina: This has been a poor season for Jelena Jankovic in terms of results and I can't help feel that she is already perhaps thinking about life beyond the Tour. The poor form has seen her slip out of the top 20 in the World Rankings, but Jankovic did have a very good win in the First Round and she is playing an opponent she has dominated.
Evgeniya Rodina has not been in the best form herself and generally plays at a lower level than the main Tour so won't bump into too many players like Jankovic. Her First Round win was an expected one but she has struggled to find the consistency to break through the Jankovic defences in their three previous matches.
Last year at Wimbledon Rodina did take the first set before winning just four games in the next two sets against Jankovic. This is a surface that Jankovic does enjoy and she was a very convincing winner in the First Round which should have given her a little confidence to take into the Second Round.
The serve can be a problem for Jankovic, but she should be winning the extended rallies in this one as she extracts errors from the Rodina game. She should have plenty of chances to break the Rodina serve and I think Jankovic is able to come through with a 64, 62 win.
Johanna Konta - 5.5 games v Saisai Zheng: Last season Johanna Konta made her breakthrough on the main Tour at this time of the year as she reached the Quarter Final here in Nottingham. Konta was earning some Wild Card spots, but the last twelve months have been so impressive that the British player will come in to the events this time around inside the top 20 of the World Rankings.
So not only is Konta earning direct entry into the top tournaments around the world, but Konta is in Nottingham as the Number 2 Seed. She will expect a good run at Wimbledon having been drawn against Maria Sharapova in the First Round there last year (I don't think either player would have expected their careers to have changed so much in a single year from that match).
I am expecting Konta to get the better of Saisai Zheng, a player she has beaten twice before including a fairly straight-forward win over her at the Australian Open. Playing on the grass should give Konta more of an edge in this match and I would expect this match to be decided on her racquet.
Zheng was an easy winner in the First Round here in Nottingham, but she had been 2-9 in her previous eleven matches on the grass. The wins both came against Emily Webley-Smith and eight of those losses would have seen her beaten on this handicap. With Konta's game suited so strongly to the grass courts, I think she can beat Zheng 63, 63 and move into the Quarter Final in Nottingham for the second year in a row.
MY PICKS: Gilles Muller - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 2.38 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-4, + 4.32 Units (20 Units Staked, + 21.60% Yield)
Tennis Picks 2016 (June 8th)
Tuesday was another mixed day, but going 2-2 is better than finishing with a losing record on the day.
Now is the time to push on and look to get this week going in a positive direction. It might be a slow Wednesday with the tournament in Stuttgart looking to be heavily affected by the poor weather in the area and I am not convinced too many matches get played through on that day.
The fans won't want to hear that with Roger Federer set to make his debut in Stuttgart and his big return to the Tour having missed the French Open. I am convinced Federer goes into this month with full belief he can win the title at Wimbledon and so getting his grass court campaign off and running is key for him.
Second Round matches are scheduled for the three different tournaments that are being played this week as the first grass court main Tour events continue on Wednesday.
Bernard Tomic - 3.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: Aljaz Bedene might represent Great Britain these days, but he has yet to really take to the grass courts that his adopted country is known for. He did win his First Round match here in Hertogenbosch comfortably, but the competition level is ramped up significantly when he takes on Bernard Tomic in the Second Round.
The Australian is very comfortable on the grass courts even if he hasn't had the really spectacular results over the last couple of seasons. Tomic has not been in the best form recently, but I don't think he is very comfortable on the clay courts and the move back to the grass should be effective with his solid first serve and variation giving opponents something to think about throughout the match.
He did reach the Quarter Final here after two impressive wins last season before Tomic found Rafael Nadal too good, a player that went on to win the title here. Tomic has had some really disappointing losses on the grass last season and his attitude on the court is not always at the level it should be which makes it difficult to trust him at all times.
However if Tomic serves well I would think he can keep Bedene under some pressure, while his slice return might force some errors from his opponents game. Bedene has yet to really get his feet set on the grass courts and I think Tomic will find a way to record a 76, 63 win in this one.
Sam Querrey - 3.5 games v Tatsuma Ito: The serving was on point in the First Round win over Benjamin Becker, but Sam Querrey will feel he should have done more on the return in that match. Someone like Becker can be awkward if his first serve is working, but a player like Tatsuma Ito doesn't have that same penetration and will have to work for every point he earns in this match.
The majority of Ito's time is played at a level below the main Tour although he did have an impressive win over Ivan Dodig in the First Round. His issue will be trying to keep clear of scoreboard pressure if Querrey is serving as well as he was against Becker when he simply didn't offer up too many chances to get into his service games.
The American will try and use the big serve and heavy forehand to keep Ito on the back foot and he should have a better opportunity to time his returns against the Ito serve. It is key for Querrey to play first strike tennis on this surface and I think he will put his opponent under pressure.
Ito has a habit of playing some really poor tennis behind his serve as he can't rely too much on the cheap points that Querrey might do. Having to work hard can break a player down mentally and physically and I think Querrey will beat him 63, 76 in this one.
Madison Brengle - 2.5 games v Richel Hogenkamp: At 24 years old, you would think Richel Hogenkamp would be looking to play a lot more main Tour tennis, but she has been stuck at the level below that. A Wild Card into Hertogenbosch is her first appearance in the main draw of this tournament and was likely given to her after a strong run at Wimbledon twelve months ago.
In 2015 she did reach the Second Round at the third Grand Slam of the season after coming through the Qualifiers which is impressive. Hogenkamp was a very easy winner in the First Round and should be confident when she takes on the American Madison Brengle.
It was not a big surprise that Brengle did not have the best clay court season as she heads onto the grass. Brengle has not had a lot of wins on the grass in recent years, but she had a difficult draw at Wimbledon last year when matched up against Venus Williams, and her win in the First Round here was impressive.
The crowd will be behind her opponent and there are likely to be quite a few break points on offer for both players, but I do think Brengle is the better player. She might not have the best recent grass court record, but can perform on the surface and I think Brengle will be able to extract enough errors over the course of a couple of hours to record a 46, 64, 63 win.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 games v Denis Kudla: It was almost a perfect performance from Philipp Kohlschreiber in his First Round win on Tuesday and he will return to the court on Wednesday hoping to replicate that form. The grass courts have always been very comfortable for Kohlschreiber who has a decent serve and heavy groundstrokes that can be tough to contain when he is at his best.
The German only dropped five games in two sets in his win over Pierre-Hugues Herbert, but Denis Kudla surpassed that with only two games dropped in his own win. I think much of that had to do with his opponent Dusan Lajovic who was not at the races, but Kudla is another player that has recorded some very good results on the grass in the past.
Kudla reached the Semi Final of a Challenger event on the grass last week and last year he won a title at that level as well as reaching the Final of another event and the Fourth Round at Wimbledon. That shows he is a player to be respected although the majority of his wins have come against players lower down the Rankings.
The big question is whether Kudla can pick himself up from the mental blow of winning just one game against Kohlschreiber at the Indian Wells Masters earlier this season. There is no doubt this one will be a lot closer than that match, but I do think Kohlschreiber has enough grass court experience to work his way to a 64, 63 win.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Taylor Fritz: We are going to get a few more of these situations in the coming years where young players get to play against their idols and this Second Round match in Stuttgart is one of those occasions. Taylor Fritz has admitted that he was streaming the US Open Final of 2009 to watch his idol Roger Federer in action but now he has the opportunity to play him on grass, a surface Federer once dominated.
The big question for Federer fans is how their man is doing after missing the French Open with a back issue that has been affecting his play since the Australian Open. A knee injury was another issue that Federer has been dealing with as this looks to be the most injury hit year he has had on the Tour since he turned professional.
Federer will be hoping he is back to full health now at a time of the season when he feels he can play his best tennis. Preparing for Wimbledon means Federer will take in Stuttgart for the first time before he heads to Halle and it will be interesting to see how he is feeling after this match.
I do think Federer will be good enough to get through this first match though and then he will have to see how he is feeling. For anyone it can be tough going against your idol and I think that might affect some of the Fritz shot selection as this young player is still in the early stages of his professional career. After some hardship, I expect Federer can have enough in the tank to record a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Bernard Tomic - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Brengle - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-3, + 0.02 Units (12 Units Staked, 0% Yield)
Now is the time to push on and look to get this week going in a positive direction. It might be a slow Wednesday with the tournament in Stuttgart looking to be heavily affected by the poor weather in the area and I am not convinced too many matches get played through on that day.
The fans won't want to hear that with Roger Federer set to make his debut in Stuttgart and his big return to the Tour having missed the French Open. I am convinced Federer goes into this month with full belief he can win the title at Wimbledon and so getting his grass court campaign off and running is key for him.
Second Round matches are scheduled for the three different tournaments that are being played this week as the first grass court main Tour events continue on Wednesday.
Bernard Tomic - 3.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: Aljaz Bedene might represent Great Britain these days, but he has yet to really take to the grass courts that his adopted country is known for. He did win his First Round match here in Hertogenbosch comfortably, but the competition level is ramped up significantly when he takes on Bernard Tomic in the Second Round.
The Australian is very comfortable on the grass courts even if he hasn't had the really spectacular results over the last couple of seasons. Tomic has not been in the best form recently, but I don't think he is very comfortable on the clay courts and the move back to the grass should be effective with his solid first serve and variation giving opponents something to think about throughout the match.
He did reach the Quarter Final here after two impressive wins last season before Tomic found Rafael Nadal too good, a player that went on to win the title here. Tomic has had some really disappointing losses on the grass last season and his attitude on the court is not always at the level it should be which makes it difficult to trust him at all times.
However if Tomic serves well I would think he can keep Bedene under some pressure, while his slice return might force some errors from his opponents game. Bedene has yet to really get his feet set on the grass courts and I think Tomic will find a way to record a 76, 63 win in this one.
Sam Querrey - 3.5 games v Tatsuma Ito: The serving was on point in the First Round win over Benjamin Becker, but Sam Querrey will feel he should have done more on the return in that match. Someone like Becker can be awkward if his first serve is working, but a player like Tatsuma Ito doesn't have that same penetration and will have to work for every point he earns in this match.
The majority of Ito's time is played at a level below the main Tour although he did have an impressive win over Ivan Dodig in the First Round. His issue will be trying to keep clear of scoreboard pressure if Querrey is serving as well as he was against Becker when he simply didn't offer up too many chances to get into his service games.
The American will try and use the big serve and heavy forehand to keep Ito on the back foot and he should have a better opportunity to time his returns against the Ito serve. It is key for Querrey to play first strike tennis on this surface and I think he will put his opponent under pressure.
Ito has a habit of playing some really poor tennis behind his serve as he can't rely too much on the cheap points that Querrey might do. Having to work hard can break a player down mentally and physically and I think Querrey will beat him 63, 76 in this one.
Madison Brengle - 2.5 games v Richel Hogenkamp: At 24 years old, you would think Richel Hogenkamp would be looking to play a lot more main Tour tennis, but she has been stuck at the level below that. A Wild Card into Hertogenbosch is her first appearance in the main draw of this tournament and was likely given to her after a strong run at Wimbledon twelve months ago.
In 2015 she did reach the Second Round at the third Grand Slam of the season after coming through the Qualifiers which is impressive. Hogenkamp was a very easy winner in the First Round and should be confident when she takes on the American Madison Brengle.
It was not a big surprise that Brengle did not have the best clay court season as she heads onto the grass. Brengle has not had a lot of wins on the grass in recent years, but she had a difficult draw at Wimbledon last year when matched up against Venus Williams, and her win in the First Round here was impressive.
The crowd will be behind her opponent and there are likely to be quite a few break points on offer for both players, but I do think Brengle is the better player. She might not have the best recent grass court record, but can perform on the surface and I think Brengle will be able to extract enough errors over the course of a couple of hours to record a 46, 64, 63 win.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 games v Denis Kudla: It was almost a perfect performance from Philipp Kohlschreiber in his First Round win on Tuesday and he will return to the court on Wednesday hoping to replicate that form. The grass courts have always been very comfortable for Kohlschreiber who has a decent serve and heavy groundstrokes that can be tough to contain when he is at his best.
The German only dropped five games in two sets in his win over Pierre-Hugues Herbert, but Denis Kudla surpassed that with only two games dropped in his own win. I think much of that had to do with his opponent Dusan Lajovic who was not at the races, but Kudla is another player that has recorded some very good results on the grass in the past.
Kudla reached the Semi Final of a Challenger event on the grass last week and last year he won a title at that level as well as reaching the Final of another event and the Fourth Round at Wimbledon. That shows he is a player to be respected although the majority of his wins have come against players lower down the Rankings.
The big question is whether Kudla can pick himself up from the mental blow of winning just one game against Kohlschreiber at the Indian Wells Masters earlier this season. There is no doubt this one will be a lot closer than that match, but I do think Kohlschreiber has enough grass court experience to work his way to a 64, 63 win.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Taylor Fritz: We are going to get a few more of these situations in the coming years where young players get to play against their idols and this Second Round match in Stuttgart is one of those occasions. Taylor Fritz has admitted that he was streaming the US Open Final of 2009 to watch his idol Roger Federer in action but now he has the opportunity to play him on grass, a surface Federer once dominated.
The big question for Federer fans is how their man is doing after missing the French Open with a back issue that has been affecting his play since the Australian Open. A knee injury was another issue that Federer has been dealing with as this looks to be the most injury hit year he has had on the Tour since he turned professional.
Federer will be hoping he is back to full health now at a time of the season when he feels he can play his best tennis. Preparing for Wimbledon means Federer will take in Stuttgart for the first time before he heads to Halle and it will be interesting to see how he is feeling after this match.
I do think Federer will be good enough to get through this first match though and then he will have to see how he is feeling. For anyone it can be tough going against your idol and I think that might affect some of the Fritz shot selection as this young player is still in the early stages of his professional career. After some hardship, I expect Federer can have enough in the tank to record a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Bernard Tomic - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Brengle - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-3, + 0.02 Units (12 Units Staked, 0% Yield)
Tuesday, 7 June 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (June 7th)
It was a mixed opening day of the grass court season as Nicolas Mahut comfortably won his match but Sam Querrey couldn't find a break of serve in his straight sets win over Benjamin Becker meaning he missed the cover by a single game.
On Tuesday a whole host of First Round matches are being played through the three tournaments that are being played this week although the top Seeds have been given 'byes' in some of the events.
That does mean we will be waiting for the return of Roger Federer to the Tour having missed the French Open as he gets set to get his preparations down for Wimbledon. The last few months of the season is when I feel Federer is at his most dangerous with the conditions more to his liking, but the key is to make sure he is fully healthy if he has real ambitions of challenging the dominance of Novak Djokovic.
Gilles Muller - 2.5 games v Robin Haase: The grass courts have not really been to the liking of Robin Haase through his career but he did make something of a breakthrough at his home tournament in 2015. Last season Haase reached the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch and pushed Nicolas Mahut the distance before coming up short and that might be the kind of memory he needs for a big week again.
The clay courts are supposed to be Haase's favourite surface, but he struggled as his form has dipped over the last few months. The Dutchman does have a solid serve which can produce cheap points on this surface and he is facing an opponent that isn't known for a tremendous return, but Gilles Muller looks the more adept on grass.
His lefty serve has pace, but Muller's strength is being able to hit his spots in the service box which leads to him being able to get forward and put away volleys and the short balls. Muller reached a Semi Final here and also the Quarter Final in Queens and he has won a title at the Challenger level on this surface.
If Muller is serving well he should keep Haase under pressure and I think Muller will have his chances to break serve. The key here is taking his chances when they do come along on the grass courts but I think Muller looks the happier on the grass courts and I will look for him to come through 75, 76.
Radek Stepanek - 2.5 games v Denis Istomin: It has been a very difficult twelve months for Denis Istomin, but one of the rare highlights in that time was winning a title on the grass courts in Nottingham. He might defend that title the week before Wimbledon, but it has been a tough season for Istomin and he will be hoping that the grass courts can turn around his form.
Istomin does have some very good results on grass in the past which will make him dangerous in Stuttgart, but I think he has drawn the short straw when it comes to the Qualifiers he could have faced. Radek Stepanek had a memorable showing at the French Open when he almost beat Andy Murray in the First Round, while he had two impressive wins in the Qualifiers which should see him come in with some confidence.
He might be 37 years old now, but Stepanek is still trying to make his way back up the World Rankings and clearly loves the game. Stepanek was beaten in his two grass court matches last season, but his game does translate onto this surface very well with an ability to get to the net and decent movement around the court.
This is going to be a tough match for Stepanek, especially if Istomin rediscovers the form that has deserted him in recent weeks, but I do think the Czech player can come through 64, 75.
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: Two veteran players meet each other in the First Round in Stuttgart and both Mikhail Youzhny and Feliciano Lopez are very comfortable on the grass courts. However it is Lopez who has been the more consistent at the main ATP level in the last couple of years and I think that can play a part in this match as he looks to improve his 6-2 head to head against the Russian.
You can see why Lopez is very comfortable on the grass courts- he has a big lefty serve that can earn him plenty of cheap points and a sliced backhand that stays low on the grass courts and puts opponents under pressure. The Spaniard is very happy up at the net where he can play his volleys and I don't think anyone is surprised by the strong record Lopez has on the surface.
These days the best we see of Youzhny comes in matches that are not played at the main ATP level and I think there is a clear difference in the levels in which these two players operate.
I do have to respect Youzhny because it is only three years ago that he reached the Final in Halle and the Fourth Round at Wimbledon where it took Roger Federer and Andy Murray to end his runs respectively. He is a very capable player on the grass courts but I think Youzhny doesn't have the same pop on the serve that Lopez will bring to the court and that should lead to the latter coming through with a 64, 64 win.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: An unfortunate draw meant Philipp Kohlschreiber didn't have a very long run at Wimbledon last year when he was beaten by Novak Djokovic in the First Round. In Halle it was Roger Federer who was his First Round opponent, but Kohlschreiber did have a run to the Quarter Final in Stuttgart.
He is a better grass court players than the results indicate from 2015 because of those two players he was unfortunate to run into. Kohlschreiber didn't have a great French Open but he did have a decent clay court season and while I think he might have lost a step around the court, the faster surfaces should still be one which Kohlschreiber can use to his advantage.
The same can be said for Pierre-Hugues Herbert who has a solid first serve which should work well on the grass courts. He has begun to win matches on the surface in the Qualifier stages having done that twice in a row for Wimbledon. A tough loss to Bernard Tomic last season at Wimbledon shows that Herbert is more than capable of giving players a difficult match on this surface when he is serving well.
I just think Kohlschreiber is going to be a little stronger off the ground in this one and will feel most comfortable on the grass of the two players. If the German can take the chances that will come his way, I will look for him to move into the Second Round behind a 76, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Gilles Muller - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Radek Stepanek - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)
On Tuesday a whole host of First Round matches are being played through the three tournaments that are being played this week although the top Seeds have been given 'byes' in some of the events.
That does mean we will be waiting for the return of Roger Federer to the Tour having missed the French Open as he gets set to get his preparations down for Wimbledon. The last few months of the season is when I feel Federer is at his most dangerous with the conditions more to his liking, but the key is to make sure he is fully healthy if he has real ambitions of challenging the dominance of Novak Djokovic.
Gilles Muller - 2.5 games v Robin Haase: The grass courts have not really been to the liking of Robin Haase through his career but he did make something of a breakthrough at his home tournament in 2015. Last season Haase reached the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch and pushed Nicolas Mahut the distance before coming up short and that might be the kind of memory he needs for a big week again.
The clay courts are supposed to be Haase's favourite surface, but he struggled as his form has dipped over the last few months. The Dutchman does have a solid serve which can produce cheap points on this surface and he is facing an opponent that isn't known for a tremendous return, but Gilles Muller looks the more adept on grass.
His lefty serve has pace, but Muller's strength is being able to hit his spots in the service box which leads to him being able to get forward and put away volleys and the short balls. Muller reached a Semi Final here and also the Quarter Final in Queens and he has won a title at the Challenger level on this surface.
If Muller is serving well he should keep Haase under pressure and I think Muller will have his chances to break serve. The key here is taking his chances when they do come along on the grass courts but I think Muller looks the happier on the grass courts and I will look for him to come through 75, 76.
Radek Stepanek - 2.5 games v Denis Istomin: It has been a very difficult twelve months for Denis Istomin, but one of the rare highlights in that time was winning a title on the grass courts in Nottingham. He might defend that title the week before Wimbledon, but it has been a tough season for Istomin and he will be hoping that the grass courts can turn around his form.
Istomin does have some very good results on grass in the past which will make him dangerous in Stuttgart, but I think he has drawn the short straw when it comes to the Qualifiers he could have faced. Radek Stepanek had a memorable showing at the French Open when he almost beat Andy Murray in the First Round, while he had two impressive wins in the Qualifiers which should see him come in with some confidence.
He might be 37 years old now, but Stepanek is still trying to make his way back up the World Rankings and clearly loves the game. Stepanek was beaten in his two grass court matches last season, but his game does translate onto this surface very well with an ability to get to the net and decent movement around the court.
This is going to be a tough match for Stepanek, especially if Istomin rediscovers the form that has deserted him in recent weeks, but I do think the Czech player can come through 64, 75.
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: Two veteran players meet each other in the First Round in Stuttgart and both Mikhail Youzhny and Feliciano Lopez are very comfortable on the grass courts. However it is Lopez who has been the more consistent at the main ATP level in the last couple of years and I think that can play a part in this match as he looks to improve his 6-2 head to head against the Russian.
You can see why Lopez is very comfortable on the grass courts- he has a big lefty serve that can earn him plenty of cheap points and a sliced backhand that stays low on the grass courts and puts opponents under pressure. The Spaniard is very happy up at the net where he can play his volleys and I don't think anyone is surprised by the strong record Lopez has on the surface.
These days the best we see of Youzhny comes in matches that are not played at the main ATP level and I think there is a clear difference in the levels in which these two players operate.
I do have to respect Youzhny because it is only three years ago that he reached the Final in Halle and the Fourth Round at Wimbledon where it took Roger Federer and Andy Murray to end his runs respectively. He is a very capable player on the grass courts but I think Youzhny doesn't have the same pop on the serve that Lopez will bring to the court and that should lead to the latter coming through with a 64, 64 win.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: An unfortunate draw meant Philipp Kohlschreiber didn't have a very long run at Wimbledon last year when he was beaten by Novak Djokovic in the First Round. In Halle it was Roger Federer who was his First Round opponent, but Kohlschreiber did have a run to the Quarter Final in Stuttgart.
He is a better grass court players than the results indicate from 2015 because of those two players he was unfortunate to run into. Kohlschreiber didn't have a great French Open but he did have a decent clay court season and while I think he might have lost a step around the court, the faster surfaces should still be one which Kohlschreiber can use to his advantage.
The same can be said for Pierre-Hugues Herbert who has a solid first serve which should work well on the grass courts. He has begun to win matches on the surface in the Qualifier stages having done that twice in a row for Wimbledon. A tough loss to Bernard Tomic last season at Wimbledon shows that Herbert is more than capable of giving players a difficult match on this surface when he is serving well.
I just think Kohlschreiber is going to be a little stronger off the ground in this one and will feel most comfortable on the grass of the two players. If the German can take the chances that will come his way, I will look for him to move into the Second Round behind a 76, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Gilles Muller - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Radek Stepanek - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)
Monday, 6 June 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (June 6th)
The 2016 French Open might not have been the most memorable of Grand Slam events, but the tournament will go down in the history books as the place where Novak Djokovic became just the third player to ever hold all four Slam titles at the same time.
The dream Djokovic has always had of becoming a Champion here in Paris came true for the World Number 1 in a dominant win over Andy Murray as he took complete control after the first set was completed. The best player in the World now has won all four majors and he can win the calendar Grand Slam having won the first two Slams of the season.
It was refreshing to hear how honestly Novak Djokovic was talking when he was asked about the calendar Grand Slam- most athletes would have downplayed their chances, but Djokovic looked confident of his ability to win Wimbledon at the US Open to complete the Grand Slam.
Right now it is tough to see who will beat him as Djokovic looks ahead of all his rivals, but the likes of Roger Federer and Andy Murray are likely to be his closest challengers over the next few weeks. Djokovic also has the chance to make added history by winning the Olympic Gold Medal in the same year as the four majors which would be unprecedented and I am struggling to see a reason why he can't do that as long as he stays healthy.
For Andy Murray it was a big tournament too and he has to be proud of his clay court campaign. Coming up short in the French Open Final to Novak Djokovic is no disgrace and now Murray can take a few days to get himself mentally and physically prepared for the grass court season which will begin for him on Monday 13th June at Queens.
He is the World Number 2 and Murray has to consider himself a big threat at his two favourite tournaments at Wimbledon and the US Open and I think there are some exciting times ahead in Men's tennis.
The grass court season has begun at the Challenger level, but this is the first week of main Tour events on the surface. There are some big names in action, but none more so than the returning Roger Federer who has taken a place in the tournament in Stuttgart where Rafael Nadal won the title last season.
Sadly Nadal looks set to have some time on the sidelines and is unlikely to play in the forthcoming weeks heading into Wimbledon and is almost certainly missing that event too. Hopefully the Spaniard can soon return to the court and I am also hopeful that we can begin to see a healthy Roger Federer who missed the French Open with a lingering back issue.
Nicolas Mahut - 3.5 games v Lukas Lacko: The beginning of the grass court season can be tough for some players to make the adjustment coming off the clay, but that has never been an issue for Nicolas Mahut. One of the few remaining serve-volley players, Mahut has loved playing on the grass and has a very good record at this tournament having won the title here in 2013 and last season.
The defending Champion will be expecting to get off to a good start against the Qualifier Lukas Lacko although I have to credit the latter for winning two matches here already this week. Lacko's career has not taken the trajectory I would have expected as injury and a loss of form has seen him come off the main Tour and focus on Challenger events.
There is talent in the Lacko racquet that can pose problems for players when he is in top form, but the confidence is perhaps not in the very best place. His second serve will likely be attacked by Mahut who will try and force Lacko to make the passes to win the points and that can be difficult under the type of pressure the Frenchman will put him.
Mahut has won the two previous matches between these players, but those came a long time ago and are less relevant now. However I do think Mahut is the superior player on grass who clearly enjoys playing at this tournament and I fancy he will get his grass court season off to a good start with a 64, 64 win.
Sam Querrey - 2.5 games v Benjamin Becker: The clay courts are never going to see the best of Sam Querrey and I think the second half of the season might be more to his liking. The American is not always the most reliable player to back, but his serve and forehand combination has worked well on the grass courts in the past and Querrey is a dangerous player on this surface.
More so than Benjamin Becker who was beaten early in a Challenger event on grass last week and who is looking more and more like a player at the back end of his career. Becker has reached the Final at this event just a couple of years ago so can't be dismissed easily, especially if the first serve is firing against an opponent whose return is limited to say the least.
However I think there are too many occasions when Becker throws away his serve with a poor game and that can be critical against someone like Querrey on this kind of surface. Querrey can be guilty of quitting on his own serve at times, especially if someone can force him into five shots or more to try and win a point and not allow the American to dictate behind a big serve and then big forehand combination.
The head to head is leaning towards Querrey which will give him a mental edge too and having won the last three matches between these players, I am looking for Querrey to have enough to record a 76, 64 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Nicolas Mahut - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Season 2016: - 28.72 Units (811 Units Staked, - 3.54% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
The dream Djokovic has always had of becoming a Champion here in Paris came true for the World Number 1 in a dominant win over Andy Murray as he took complete control after the first set was completed. The best player in the World now has won all four majors and he can win the calendar Grand Slam having won the first two Slams of the season.
It was refreshing to hear how honestly Novak Djokovic was talking when he was asked about the calendar Grand Slam- most athletes would have downplayed their chances, but Djokovic looked confident of his ability to win Wimbledon at the US Open to complete the Grand Slam.
Right now it is tough to see who will beat him as Djokovic looks ahead of all his rivals, but the likes of Roger Federer and Andy Murray are likely to be his closest challengers over the next few weeks. Djokovic also has the chance to make added history by winning the Olympic Gold Medal in the same year as the four majors which would be unprecedented and I am struggling to see a reason why he can't do that as long as he stays healthy.
For Andy Murray it was a big tournament too and he has to be proud of his clay court campaign. Coming up short in the French Open Final to Novak Djokovic is no disgrace and now Murray can take a few days to get himself mentally and physically prepared for the grass court season which will begin for him on Monday 13th June at Queens.
He is the World Number 2 and Murray has to consider himself a big threat at his two favourite tournaments at Wimbledon and the US Open and I think there are some exciting times ahead in Men's tennis.
The grass court season has begun at the Challenger level, but this is the first week of main Tour events on the surface. There are some big names in action, but none more so than the returning Roger Federer who has taken a place in the tournament in Stuttgart where Rafael Nadal won the title last season.
Sadly Nadal looks set to have some time on the sidelines and is unlikely to play in the forthcoming weeks heading into Wimbledon and is almost certainly missing that event too. Hopefully the Spaniard can soon return to the court and I am also hopeful that we can begin to see a healthy Roger Federer who missed the French Open with a lingering back issue.
Nicolas Mahut - 3.5 games v Lukas Lacko: The beginning of the grass court season can be tough for some players to make the adjustment coming off the clay, but that has never been an issue for Nicolas Mahut. One of the few remaining serve-volley players, Mahut has loved playing on the grass and has a very good record at this tournament having won the title here in 2013 and last season.
The defending Champion will be expecting to get off to a good start against the Qualifier Lukas Lacko although I have to credit the latter for winning two matches here already this week. Lacko's career has not taken the trajectory I would have expected as injury and a loss of form has seen him come off the main Tour and focus on Challenger events.
There is talent in the Lacko racquet that can pose problems for players when he is in top form, but the confidence is perhaps not in the very best place. His second serve will likely be attacked by Mahut who will try and force Lacko to make the passes to win the points and that can be difficult under the type of pressure the Frenchman will put him.
Mahut has won the two previous matches between these players, but those came a long time ago and are less relevant now. However I do think Mahut is the superior player on grass who clearly enjoys playing at this tournament and I fancy he will get his grass court season off to a good start with a 64, 64 win.
Sam Querrey - 2.5 games v Benjamin Becker: The clay courts are never going to see the best of Sam Querrey and I think the second half of the season might be more to his liking. The American is not always the most reliable player to back, but his serve and forehand combination has worked well on the grass courts in the past and Querrey is a dangerous player on this surface.
More so than Benjamin Becker who was beaten early in a Challenger event on grass last week and who is looking more and more like a player at the back end of his career. Becker has reached the Final at this event just a couple of years ago so can't be dismissed easily, especially if the first serve is firing against an opponent whose return is limited to say the least.
However I think there are too many occasions when Becker throws away his serve with a poor game and that can be critical against someone like Querrey on this kind of surface. Querrey can be guilty of quitting on his own serve at times, especially if someone can force him into five shots or more to try and win a point and not allow the American to dictate behind a big serve and then big forehand combination.
The head to head is leaning towards Querrey which will give him a mental edge too and having won the last three matches between these players, I am looking for Querrey to have enough to record a 76, 64 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Nicolas Mahut - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Season 2016: - 28.72 Units (811 Units Staked, - 3.54% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
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