NFL Play Offs Conference Championship Game Picks 2015 (January 18)

After the controversy during the Dallas Cowboys win over the Detroit Lions in the Wild Card Round of the weekend, the NFL would have been hoping fans around the world would have focused on the games on Divisional Round weekend.

All seemed to be going well for the League after a truly classic Play Off game on Saturday when the New England Patriots just about outlasted the Baltimore Ravens, but it all turned around on Sunday in arguably the biggest game of the weekend.

The Dallas Cowboys were again involved, but this time a 'bad rule' prevented them having the chance to beat the Green Bay Packers and move into the NFC Conference Championship Game. Everyone would have called Dez Bryant's amazing play a catch if you were hanging out and in all definitions it seemed to be the case, but the rule states he has to maintain position going through the ground or make a 'football play' and what would have been an all time great play was overturned.

Dez Bryant's reaction said it all and it looks like the backlash from the game means that the rule is likely to be made more objective and cleared up from the 'grey area' it currently stands in.

Like last week, the Dallas Cowboys weren't guaranteed a win if the catch had stood, but it was a play that would have given them a very good chance. Dallas still had to score the TD and then would have gone for two points to try and extend the lead to three points over the Packers.

That would have still left Aaron Rodgers and the Packers around 3 minutes with three Time Outs to either score a tying Field Goal, if Dallas succeeded in going for two points, or they could have scored a Touchdown/kicked the winning Field Goal if they trailed by a single point.

However, I would have loved to have seen the team moving through to the Conference Championship Game because of what they did on the field rather than a 'bad rule' or the officials making the big, but ultimately wrong, call.


I mentioned the New England game against the Baltimore Ravens which became an instant classic after the Patriots became the first team to win a Play Off game having trailed by 14 points on two occasions. The story out of the game was the Offensive formations that New England used in the second half when only sending out four Offensive Linemen and then declaring one of their Receivers as ineligible on the play.

It infuriated John Harbaugh who took an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty while complaining to the officials and looks to be another issue the NFL will have to deal with this off-season.


The Seattle Seahawks comfortably dismissed their 'attractive cousins' from Carolina and are the clear favourites to win the Super Bowl for the second season in succession. They are a big favourite to beat the Green Bay Packers this weekend and I would expect the Seahawks to be laying at least 3.5 points on a neutral field against either New England or Indianapolis if they get to the Super Bowl.


That's right- Indianapolis! I didn't predict the Indianapolis Colts to go into Denver and beat the Broncos in the Divisional Round of the Play Offs, but it has since been revealed that Peyton Manning was indeed limited by his thigh injury.

Manning's future has been left up in the air, but John Elway didn't wait too long to make changes after firing (well they claim mutual consent) John Fox as Head Coach and allowing the Coaching Staff to all explore their options. The Broncos also have some big decisions to make concerning which Free Agents they are going to extend, especially with Demaryius and Julius Thomas both needing extensions, while Manning is going to be involved in the search for a new Head Coach even if he decides retirement is the way forward.

The Denver Broncos fanbase must be a little concerned that they have missed their window to win a Super Bowl with Manning at Quarter Back and there could be a lot of changes at this team in time for the new season. It could shift the power in the AFC going into the new season if Manning does indeed retire and I think there are going to be a lot of questions to be answered over the coming weeks by the front office beginning with the announcement of a new Head Coach.


Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: The NFC Championship Game will be the first one played this Sunday and I think most would accept it would have a lot more potential to be a classic if Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers were coming in healthy. Rodgers couldn't disguise his limited movement on an injured calf last weekend against Dallas and, despite saying it probably feels better than a week ago, the Quarter Back has to have more than he did in the Divisional Round game to give the Packers any kind of chance in this one.

The Cowboys got some pressure on Rodgers, but he was mainly well protected by his Offensive Line and that allowed him to pick apart a Cowboys Defense that has given up a lot of yards this season. It will be tough to replicate that success against the Seattle Secondary that will have Byron Maxwell back at Corner Back opposite Richard Sherman.

Seattle can get a lot of pressure up front with a four man rush and the Green Bay Offensive Line will be tested to the fullest if Rodgers is unable to step up and perhaps scramble a little more than last weekend. The pressure without blitzing means there are less spaces to exploit in the Secondary, but Rodgers will at least be boosted by two more weapons he has this week than he did in Week 1.

For starters, Davonte Adams has become more comfortable in the Offense and being matched across from Sherman won't mean Rodgers automatically shies away from one side of the field as he did in Week 1. Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson remain key Receivers, but Richard Rodgers could be another new factor at Tight End.

Eddie Lacy and James Starks will find it tough to keep Rodgers in winnable downs and distance as Seattle's Defense is very strong against the run, but the Carolina Panthers showed it can be possible to move the chains on the ground. Keeping Rodgers in third and short will give their Quarter Back a chance to make plays and Green Bay have to be excited about some of the success that Cam Newton enjoyed in the Divisional Round here last weekend.

Lacy and Starks MAY have success, but Marshawn Lynch is almost a lock to be able to punish the Green Bay Defense on the ground. Max Unger looks like he won't miss this game which is huge for the Seattle Seahawks who virtually average a Touchdown more per game with the Center in the line up, while Lynch has also been a lot more effective when Unger plays. Lynch had over 100 yards and 2 Touchdowns when Seattle met Green Bay in Week 1 and he should be able to follow DeMarco Murray to rip some big gains on the ground.

If the Packers can make some Defensive stands, Russell Wilson is also a threat for the Seattle Seahawks when it comes to running the ball and could become the latest mobile Quarter Back to pose problems for the Packers Defense. It is Colin Kaepernick that has ended Green Bay's last two seasons in the Play Offs and Wilson is capable of getting out of the pocket and happy to run the ball for First Downs or scores.

Green Bay may want to dial up the blitz to try and force Wilson to get rid of the ball quicker than he would like- Seattle have allowed a lot of pressure on their Quarter Back through the season and Green Bay have an effective pass rush which could be their best avenue of success. However, the Packers would prefer to have made some stops on Lynch to set up third and long before they decide to bring these packages into play as Wilson could take off for the First Downs if in man coverage behind the blitz.

Wilson has also been very efficient with the ball when it comes to throwing despite not having the 'big name' Receivers that the NFL fans will be used to hearing. Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and Luke Willson are all capable Receivers, but the Green Bay Secondary is a ball-hawking unit that will believe they can make the big plays to try and slow the Seahawks down.

Both teams will be confident they have the game plan to win this one and move to the Super Bowl where they will likely be favoured to win. The injury to Aaron Rodgers calf is really bothersome and Seattle have a very strong home record since Russell Wilson was Drafted, going 20-7 against the spread in those games including 2-0 straight up and against the spread against Green Bay.

Green Bay have neither been a good underdog (2-10 against the spread over last three seasons) nor on the road (10-14 against the spread last three seasons), but I think the Packers are getting too many points this week. They have an Offense that can score points and I like the earlier start which may suit them a little more than a late evening game on the West Coast.

It just seems like too many points to be giving a team like the Green Bay Packers and that is backed up by the trend that an underdog being given 7 or more points in a Championship Game are 9-3 against the spread over the last 18 seasons.

Another trend backing the Packers is the fact that teams who return to play a game at the same venue they have already been beaten at are 28-14 against the spread when that opponent is not from the same Division.

Lacy and Starks could get something going on the ground and I think Green Bay have more weapons than when they played here earlier this season. Rodgers' injury means I can only back this for minimum stakes, while Seattle could pull away as they did against the Carolina Panthers last week if they can establish the run and wear the Packers down. However, I think Green Bay will make enough plays against the tough Seattle Defense to keep this closer than most will anticipate and I like taking the points in this game.


Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots Pick: The AFC Championship Game is another repeat of one we have seen in a prime time spot earlier this season, but this one won't be taking place at the home of the Indianapolis Colts. This time it is the New England Patriots who will be hosting the Colts in Foxboro and there will be plenty of headlines written about Andrew Luck facing another sure-fire Hall of Fame Quarter Back in Tom Brady after last weekend.

With Brady and Peyton Manning dominating on the AFC side of the NFL for a number of years, Andrew Luck could be in a rare position of beating both in consecutive weeks on the road as he looks for a 'passing of the torch' moment. Getting to the Super Bowl would also vindicate Jim Irsay's decision to draft Luck and allow Manning to move on.

Luck had an effective game against the Denver Broncos last week but the stars of the show were the Defense who held the Broncos to 13 points. Peyton Manning was said to be suffering with a severe enough injury to make me wonder whether that was a real factor in this Defensive performance put forward by the Colts, especially as they had not only lost, but been blown out by a number of the better teams they have faced.

That includes a huge home loss to the New England Patriots, but Luck might feel better with the emergence of Dan Herron who has provided a running game to complement the passing. Trent Richardson is officially a bust in Indianapolis having been a healthy scratch last week, but Herron has proved the Colts can establish the run without him and he is also an effective Receiver coming out of the backfield.

New England's Defense has played the run well for the most part this season and they have a player like Jamie Collins who seems to make plays all over the field from his position at Linebacker. Darrelle Revis must have been running 'Revis Island' on a minimum staff last week as he could not handle the Baltimore Receivers, but the Corner Back is better than he showed and it might be difficult for Indianapolis to consistently move the chains.

The Patriots should get a better pass rush than the demoralised Denver Broncos managed, while I do think it would be foolish to ignore the fact the Colts only scored 24 points. Luck also turned the ball over twice in that game and these are areas where New England will look to thrive this weekend.

Last week the Colts also looked to dare Peyton Manning to throw the ball, but that might have been down to the fact that they were not convinced he was 100% healthy and that isn't the case this week. Daring Tom Brady to do that will give Indianapolis match up problems against Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, and that will open up the Colts to the New England ground attack which hurt them so badly when the teams met earlier this season.

Vontae Davis can take away one of the Receivers New England will be running, but this is an Offense that found the adjustments to beat Baltimore and I don't think the Colts Defense is as good as it showed.

Jonas Gray may not be the featured Running Back in this one, but his 200 rushing yards i the first game between these teams has to be a concern for Indianapolis. LeGarrette Blount is more of a power runner than Gray, but he could take advantage of running lanes that may open up if Brady shows he has a lot more in the tank than Manning had last weekend.

I think the Patriots are the right side in this one and I am surprised that they are actually favoured by a full Field Goal less than Denver went off against Indianapolis last weekend. Even the opening line that the Broncos had was more than what the Patriots have been given and I do think too much stock has been put into the Colts win last weekend. Andrew Luck played well in Denver, but also made some mistakes, and playing outdoors is going to be tough for him, especially if it remains cold in the north east of the United States.

New England have also blasted Indianapolis in their 3 games since Andrew Luck was drafted by the Colts and all of those wins have come by at least 21 points including in the Play offs here last season. Tom Brady will have heard all the talk about Luck after his win over Peyton Manning's Denver and that should inspire a typically big performance from the Quarter Back in this spot.

The Indianapolis Colts Defense looked better thanks to the injury Manning played through and I also think Luck is still good for a couple of mistakes against the best teams. I also expect Darrelle Revis to have a bounce back game at Corner Back and perhaps help himself to a key Interception at some point.

There are some trends that really favour Indianapolis, but I think New England are the better team and can cover this number thanks to a couple of adjustments made by Bill Belichick at half time. The Patriots have failed to cover in their last 5 Conference Championship Games, but this number remains too low as far as I am concerned and the Patriots should book their place in Arizona in two weeks time.

MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
New England Patriots - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Divisional: 3-1, + 3.76 Units
Wild Card: 2-2, + 0.90 Units
Week 17: 5-3, + 2.55 Units
Week 16: 5-6, - 3.55 Units
Week 15: 5-4, + 1.56 Units
Week 14: 2-10, - 14 Units
Week 13: 4-7, - 6.36 Units
Week 12: 3-6, - 4.36 Units
Week 11: 5-4, + 1.20 Units
Week 10: 4-2, + 3.90 Units
Week 9: 4-3, + 1.42 Units
Week 8: 1-8, - 13 Units
Week 7: 8-1, + 11.20 Units
Week 6: 2-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 5: 3-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 2014: 75-79-2, - 8.24 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

NFL Play Offs Conference Championships 2014 (January 19th)

We have reached the final weekend of the NFL season as we get to decide the two teams that will compete in the Super Bowl in two weeks time in New York City. In all honesty, I think we are fortunate in seeing the four best teams in the NFL remaining alive to win the big game and that should lead to two very good Conference Championship Games on Sunday.


The Play Offs haven't been as successful for my picks as last season, but the season has proved to be a very profitable one and that's all you can ask for back in September when everything gets going.

I hope the last three games will at least add to that as we get the games going.


New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Pick: We know what the Broncos are able to do with the powerful Offense they have been running all season, although there have been small signs that teams are beginning to get a hang of what they are seeing. Even then, it is tough to find a way to stop the likes of Demaryius Thomas, Erik Decker, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker and that is just the Receivers and not accounting for the Running Backs coming out of the backfield.

Bill Belichick is sure to have something up his sleeve in a bid to rattle Peyton Manning when he does drop back to pass and the New England Patriots have found pressure from their pass rush. The Patriots should also show more discipline than the San Diego Chargers who were probably dreaming about 'Omaha' on their journey back to California after the loss last weekend.

If New England can at least force Manning to think about where the pressure is coming from, they have a Defense that can cause some disruption in the passing game, but it will all begin and end up front. If the pressure is not there, we did see Andrew Luck have decent success throwing the ball against the Patriots last week and there is no doubt that Denver hold many more weapons than the Colts did without Reggie Wayne in their line up.

It is not like the Patriots can sell out to defend the pass either as Manning is smart enough to check into a run play if there are not the number of men in the box that he is expecting. New England have struggled against the rush without Vince Wilfork so the likes of Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball should be able to keep the chains moving if they are handed the ball by the Quarter Back.

The rushing attack has also been all the rage in New England in their last few games and that was highlighted by the team scoring over 40 points against Indianapolis, yet Tom Brady didn't throw one Touchdown pass. New England have lost some serious Receivers since last season and during the course of this one through injury, but the Offensive Line seems to have enjoyed pounding the ball on the ground and that has seen LeGarroutte Blount show off his own ability.

Between Blount, Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley, New England have the change of pace at the Running Back position and they have all been effective, although it might not be so easy against a stout Denver Defense. Despite the injuries on that side of the ball, the Broncos have continued making it tough to run the ball against them and they showed that off last week by shutting down the San Diego Chargers when it came to an element that had hurt them at times in the regular season.

That does mean New England are likely to rely on Tom Brady a little more in this one than they did last week and the Quarter Back could open the running lanes by having success through the air. Von Miller is out for the Broncos, but they still managed to get a pass rush going against San Diego, and that is an area that the Patriots Offensive Line haven't always been as comfortable with.

Denver will have to get to Brady if they are to win this game, particularly with the injury suffered by Chris Harris last week which exposed a Secondary in the last quarter against the Chargers. Brady might not have the household names any more, but Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman could pose problems for the Broncos if Quentin Jammer hasn't improved his play with a week of practice under his belt. That will at least give New England the chance to compete in a shoot-out too and could be the biggest problem for Denver to deal with in this game.

Both of these teams have had me convinced that they are the right side to back at different times during the week and it has been tough to get a real feel for being on the correct side, although I have eventually landed with taking New England and the points to at least keep this game competitive.

The Patriots know all about Peyton Manning and while his Offense looks loaded with talented weapons, I think Bill Belichick will do enough to give Tom Brady and his own Offense the chance to surprise the home team.

That's not to say New England will prevent Denver scoring points, I just think the Defense will have enough success to at least limit them to the point that the Patriots own Offense can score enough points to stay with them.

It is easy to see one mistake being critical to which teams goes through to the Super Bowl in New York, but getting more than a field goal head start on New England looks a touch too high. That is especially the case considering the Patriots have rarely been beaten comfortably with their highest point loss being just 7 points all season and I can see Tom Brady at least scoring late to get within the number.

The Patriots are also a good team that has won 13 games this season and the trend that teams that have won at least 12 games but have a weaker record than their opponent are 39-11 against the spread does favour them. However, coming off big blow out wins in the Play Offs has been tough to back up and that has to be a concern for the Patriots backers.

Even then, the absence of Chris Harris for Denver looks to be opening a big enough hole in the Secondary for New England to find a way to exploit it and I think Tom Brady is already a touch annoyed at being the underdog. He mentioned last weekend that no one will expect New England to win and the Patriots have always been strong in that position too so I will take the points in this one and just hope for a close Denver win (that's the Miami Dolphin fan coming out of me at the end).


San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: One of the questions that is going to need answering is how well Russell Wilson plays at the Quarter Back position with some in the media beginning to question how well he is playing. It is true that Wilson hasn't been at his best the last few games, but he is a Quarter Back that relishes the big game and he will be able to make plays against this Secondary if he can scramble away from the pressure that San Francisco have been generating with the return of Aldon Smith.

It will begin by handing the ball to Marshawn Lynch and letting 'Beast Mode' try and pick up some yards on the ground, although it has to be said that the 49ers Defense is playing the run very well in recent games. While they have been productive in that regards all season, the 49ers have only given up 3.4 yards per carry over their last three games, although don't expect Seattle to get away from the game plan as Lynch is capable of breaking tackles.

The Seahawks will look to keep San Francisco honest by using the run, but it might also be a good idea to design runs for Russell Wilson as the Offense needs to stay in third and manageable situations if they are to sustain drives. Otherwise, the 49ers can pin back their ears on obvious passing downs and pressure Wilson, while they have also shown good discipline to contain running Quarter Backs as shown against Cam Newton last week.

Wilson is likely to be not have Percy Harvin in the Receiver position to give him another threat, but there is enough in their passing game to think they can get the ball downfield against a Secondary that has been burnt through the air.

Another factor the Seahawks will look to employ is their home field advantage which has bamboozled the 49ers the last two times they have visited here. The crowd is loud, while the Seattle Defense is probably the best one in the NFL and these are conditions that Colin Kaepernick will have to deal with if the 49ers are to return to the Super Bowl for the second season in succession.

To Kaepernick's defence, he will have a lot more weapons to go against the Seattle 'Legion of Boom' this time as he has Michael Crabtree and a healthy Vernon Davis to complement Anquan Boldin, but that doesn't necessarily mean he will find a way to move the chains throughout the game.

Like Seattle, San Francisco begin by trying to run the ball but the Seahawks Defense has been absolutely bruising against those attacks in recent games. There were a couple of times when teams had success moving the ball on the ground, but I am not sure Frank Gore will get too much joy against a Defense that has allowed 2.4 yards per carry over their last three games.

Again, like Seattle, San Francisco are likely to design more running plays for Colin Kaepernick at the Quarter Back position to keep the Offense in third and manageable situations. If you think San Francisco have a decent pass rush, Seattle's is as fierce as any in the NFL and they will give this Offensive Line a lot of problems in late down and long distance if the 49ers can't keep the Offense in a good position.

Kaepernick may have his full complement of weapons back, but the Seattle Secondary is physical and have the ability to make plays under pressure so it will be a tough test for the Quarter Back to make the plays with his arm. I do think he will have some success, but Kaepernick has to make the right decisions too as turnovers have been one of the main problems in the last two games here which has seen the game get out of hand. At home, Seattle have the highest turnover differential in the NFL so you know they are capable of forcing Interceptions which could be critical for their chances to make it back to the big game.

So what can you say about this game that you wouldn't have read already? We all know it is a fierce rivalry that has been best described as the 'new Pittsburgh-Baltimore' of the NFL and I expect it to be as physical and bruising as those Steelers-Ravens games have been over the years.

The two teams are almost mirror images of one another with the same basic principle of tough Defense and using the ground and pound when they have the ball on Offense. What has made a difference in their games has been home field advantage and it is a big mental obstacle for the 49ers to overcome after taking back to back heavy losses in visits to Seattle.

Colin Kaepernick does have more weapons at his disposal, but this physical Defense of the Seahawks matches up well against them and I think turnovers are more likely to come from the 49ers which could prove to be the difference at the end of the game.

It is the turnovers that have killed the 49ers in their last two visits to Seattle and the loud crowd could help force some more to win the game for the home team and help them cover the spread in this one.

The Seahawks have been a strong home favourite to back in recent years and are 24-10 against the spread in that spot since 2007, but they do have to reverse the fact that the underdog is 9-4 against the spread in the last 13 NFC Conference Championship Games. In fact, the underdog has won the last 4 NFC Championship Games, but the 'sharp' money is backing the Seahawks and I do think they are going to prove a little too good for a San Francisco team that is playing their third road game in three weeks.

MY PICKS: New England Patriots + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Divisional Round: 1-3, - 4 Units
Wild Card Round: 2-2, - 0.10 Units
Week 17: 7-1, + 10.68 Units
Week 16: 4-6, - 4.23 Units
Week 15: 2-6, - 5.32 Units
Week 14: 5-4, + 0.54 Units
Week 13: 6-4-1, + 3.65 Units
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units

Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 2013: 84-69-2, + 20.53 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

NFL Play Off Championship Games 2013 (January 20)

Well, well, well, we have finally made it through to the penultimate weekend of the NFL season (I don't count the Pro Bowl) and it has been a positive Play Off run for the picks in what was a disappointing and tough regular season to negotiate.

The run in the Play Offs has reached 7-1 thanks to Seattle and New England covering last Sunday and hopefully that will continue through for three more games.

Just before I get on to the picks, I have to say a little about the Manti Te'o situation- it is very worrying to think someone as intelligent as Te'o was catfished so comprehensively, but there is enough gnawing at me to think there is more to the tale.

I have little belief that he didn't know it was a hoax sooner and there are a lot of interviews that contradict what he is now saying. It is a shame, as he looked a lock for a top 15 pick in the NFL Draft, and I do see that stock falling. What makes it worrying is that someone would think it is correct to perpetuate a lie, to almost go out of their way to let the lie develop and there are so many questions to be answered.

The story shows little to no sign of slowing down at the moment and I think a lot is going to be revealed as to how much Te'o knew about the 'hoax'.

Personally, I think there has to be an opportunity for Jeff Ireland to interview Te'o and see if he can put his foot in his own mouth any worse than when he interviewed Dez Bryant.


San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: The first thing I would say is that the spread is ridiculous as it should be much shorter, although I do believe the right side is being favoured and I do think San Francisco will cover in the win to book their place in New Orleans in two weeks time.

The problem for Atlanta is that they have shown nothing to think they can slow down Colin Kaepernick- both Russell Wilson and Cam Newton have carved up this Defense this season and Kaerpernick has the wheels and the arm to become the latest to make hay in that situation.

I have little doubt that San Francisco will be moving the chains in this one, almost at will, and my only concern is the situation with Michael Crabtree and whether he will be active for the game. I would be surprised if he wasn't, but if Crabtree was unavailable,  Vernon Davis will be given a bigger opportunity in the Offense.

That won't be a bad thing as Davis is more than capable of replicating what Zach Miller did last week for Seattle, although the loss of Crabtree would limit the Offense a little.

Another issue for Atlanta is that their Offense could be made fairly one-dimensional in this one... Michael Turner showed some life last week against Seattle, but the Seahawks are not as stout against the run as the 49ers and I expect all the pressure will be on Matt Ryan.

Ryan banished some of the demons with a come from behind win over Seattle last weekend, but this is a tougher Defense in my opinion and it won't be easy for him to torch the Secondary without a running game established. The likes of Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez are top receivers so they will find spaces, but to do that consistently will be an issue for Atlanta in my opinion.

There are a lot of trends that do favour the Falcons in the game that worry me, particularly of sides coming off a huge Offensive output as the 49ers are (teams scoring at least 40 points in the Play Offs are 3-20 against the spread since 1996).

However, they look the better team and I do think the 49ers are going to be too good on both sides of the ball and pull the win.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons 24-30 San Francisco 49ers


Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots Pick: Is it destiny or something else? The Baltimore Ravens certainly feel that the whole season was going to boil down to them going back to Foxboro for the AFC Championship Game and a chance to earn some redemption from a season ago. Everyone remembers the Lee Evans dropped touchdown and the Billy Cundiff choke in a game the Ravens deserved to win.

That was the weekend when both Harbaugh brothers saw their team lose in the Championship Round to miss the chance of getting to the SuperBowl and I think they may both be in different situations this time around.

I have no doubt that Baltimore are banged up Defensively, but this unit has come together in the last couple of weeks as they rally around for one last run to the big game as a team. Ray Lewis is gone at the end of the season and I wouldn't be surprised if Ed Reed joins him, but they look like a team that feels they can put the exclamation point at the end of Lewis' career.

Baltimore should have some success through the air and on the ground against this Defense, particularly if Play Off Joe Flacco has another big game. He outplayed Peyton Manning last week and he outplayed Tom Brady last season, while Jim Caldwell has already shown he is a far better Offensive Co-Ordinator than Cam Cameron.

Rob Gronkowski is missing for New England, but I don't think that will have the huge impact that it would have done a season ago, especially with the Patriots playing down the stretch without him this season. Brady will still find a way to move the chains with his receivers and he will get the ball out quickly to avoid pressure, something that Baltimore have rattled him with in the past.

I also expect the Patriots to find some success on the floor with Steven Ridley and Shane Vereen, but something has to be said about how tough Baltimore have played New England throughout recent seasons.

I hate the fact that Bill Belichick is a covering machine when he faces a team he has lost to previously in the season (14-3 against the spread), but teams given at least a touchdown in Conference Championship Games are 8-3 against the spread since 1997.

Baltimore have also played New England tough in their last 3 visits here, going 2-0-1 against the spread in those games too and I'll take more than a touchdown start that they can do the same again.


MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens + 8 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

NFL Preview 2012 (NFC Conference)

The NFL season is now just days away from beginning and I have broken down both Conferences with my choices for the teams that will make it to the Play Offs.

You can find my look at the AFC here.

The NFC is the Conference I believe will provide the SuperBowl winner again this season and they have two of the toughest Divisions in the whole of football in the NFC East and NFC North.

I am sure there are going to be a couple of big teams that miss out again this season after the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys and the Chicago Bears all failed to reach the post-season in 2011.

Below are my projections for the NFC this season.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) Record from last season in brackets

The last time any team managed to win back to back NFC East titles was back in 2004 and I project another winner this season. Last season, the Philadelphia Eagles loaded their roster with talent and Vince Young described them as the 'Dream Team', yet they flattered to deceive and had to win their final 4 games to avoid a losing season.

However, those wins have got the fans believing this could be a big season for them and they have kept most of their key players on the roster while adding in the likes of DeMeco Ryans (LB) to close some of the holes they had a year ago.

The biggest issue may be keeping Michael Vick healthy for the season, but we have seen how fragile he can be as he picked up a couple of injuries in the pre-season games. He will be good to go, but the Eagles need a full season out of him if they are to get to the SuperBowl.

A lot of that will be down to an Offensive Line that is most likely going to miss Jason Peters for the season, but they did look like an improving unit down the stretch in 2011.

The Defense finished in the top 10 in both yards per game and points per game last season and I think they may even improve on those numbers now that this unit has been together for a season. They get a lot of pressure on the opposition Quarter Back with their front 4, while the Linebackers should be improved with Ryans joining the team from Houston with his experience and leadership qualities.

The Secondary is talented and will be helped out by the pressure generated up front and the Eagles look a real threat in the NFC this season.

With the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys in the same Division, the schedule is always going to be tough, but Philadelphia have the easiest one of those three teams and that is why I believe they win the Division. After finishing 2011 with lots of momentum, I think the Eagles will push on this season and get around 3 wins more than last season to take their record to 11-5.

New York Giants (9-7)




When the New York Giants were swept by the Washington Redskins last season, they were left with a 7-7 record and knowing they would have to win 6 games in a row if they were to win their second SuperBowl in 5 seasons. The Giants won the battle of New York against the Jets, then beat Dallas to make it into the Play Offs and only saw their momentum keep building in wins over Atlanta, at Green Bay, at San Francisco and then knocking off the New England Patriots in the big game again.

However, the schedule makers have given the Giants no favours this season and that is why I believe they will actually fall down a position in the NFC East, although potentially getting back into the Play Offs.

Brandon Jacobs, Mario Manningham and Aaron Ross are some of the bigger names that have left the Giants this off-season and there are still some questions to address if they are to prove themselves a year after winning the SuperBowl.

The Offensive Line struggled to open up holes in the rushing game last season, while Victor Cruz is not the unknown player he was a year ago when becoming a top receiving threat for Eli Manning. The Defensive Line will also show the same level of play they got in the final 6 games and bring that for the whole season if the Giants are to improve in the yards per game and points per game they allow.

You don't win a SuperBowl without a lot of talent in the team so I don't want to do the Giants a disservice, but take away their final 6 games last season and I think there is a lot of inconsistency with their play and that may cost them the Division this season.

The schedule matches them with Philadelphia (twice), Dallas (twice), visiting San Francisco, Atlanta and Baltimore, while also hosting New Orleans, Green Bay and Pittsburgh... I have seen the Giants projected to win 11 games this season in some places, but I think they may be closer to their record from last season and go 9-7, although there are a couple of games that look really tight and could go either way.

It wouldn't be a huge surprise to me if they did manage up to 11 wins, but there is just as much a chance that they could go 7-9 with the games on slate so I am going to stick with my initial thoughts and say the Giants finish 9-7.

Dallas Cowboys (8-8)



One of my best friends is a Dallas Cowboy fan so this team has always been a 'second favourite' of mine behind the Miami Dolphins. They were close to making it to the Play Offs last season and would have made it if they hadn't had blown a big lead over the New York Giants in a home game earlier in the season, even if they did get another chance against the eventual SuperBowl Champions in New Jersey in Week 17 in a 'winner takes all' game.

The blowing of a big lead in the first game against the Giants was a symptom of the Cowboys season as they blew double-digit leads against the New York Jets and Detroit Lions as well as the Giants.

Dallas have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, although they need to maintain better health to get the full benefit of it. Miles Austin has a lingering hamstring injury that cost him games last season and continues to come up from time to time and there isn't the depth at Wide Receiver to have him missing for an extensive time.

Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are talented playmakers in the receiving areas for Dallas, but the Offensive Line will have to play better to protect Tony Romo after giving up 39 sacks last season. The line could be helped if DeMarco Murray can stay healthy as he looks a real threat with the ball in his hand and may force Defenses to just take a moment to think before getting after Romo, especially if Murray continues from where he left off last season at 5.5 yards per carry.

One of the poorest areas of the team last season was the Secondary that was badly exposed- Rob Ryan runs the Defense here and he uses his front 7 to pressure the opposition Quarter Back but the Secondary did not do a good job of limiting the big play. This is an area Dallas looked to strengthen and the signing of Brandon Carr from Kansas City and picking Morris Claiborne with their first pick in the Draft has seen that unit massively upgraded.

With a full off-season to work with Ryan, I expect the Defense as a whole will be an improved unit, but the schedule, like for the Giants, has not been Dallas' friend.

There are at least three or four games where I really think it could go either way, games where they are currently favoured or dogged by just 1 point. Much as I said with the Giants, Dallas could easily get into double-digit in wins, but may also end with a losing record for the second time in three seasons. I've projected the Cowboys in 3rd in the NFC East with an 8-8 record, but they could easily surpass this expectation.




Washington Redskins (5-11)



Washington have attached their future to Robert Griffin III by giving up a number of draft picks to move up to the Number 2 spot in the draft to take the Quarter Back. After years of uncertainty at this position RGIII is the man for Mike Shanahan and will decide whether the Head Coach is going to be here for the long term or not.

RGIII has been given some weapons like Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan, but it isn't an overwhelming Offense around him and it does look a rebuilding year. There are big questions about the Running Back and the Offensive Line and it could be a rude awakening for Griffin in the NFL.

Looking at the Defense overall and I think they are a decent unit that should be able to keep Washington in games and give their new Quarter Back a chance to put some wins on the board. A lot will depend on whether the front 7 continue to get pressure and maybe improve on the 41 sacks that were recorded by the team last season.

The Secondary is inconsistent at best and are susceptible to the big play, especially if the opposition Quarter Back gets time to throw the ball. Brandon Meriweather comes in to play Strong Safety having spent a year in Chicago, but he is far removed from his performances that took him to the Pro-Bowl as a member of the New England Patriots.

They picked off the ball just 4 times last season, the worst record in the NFL, and will be heavily reliant on the likes of Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan causing problems in the backfield ahead of them if the Secondary is to keep improving statistically.

Washington are another one of the NFC East teams that has a stinker of a schedule and I am struggling to see them reaching the 5 wins they got to last season (remember they had to sweep the Giants to get to that number) and, barring any more surprise results, I think they will finish with a weaker record than last season, but the fans have to be patient in a year where they are getting the pieces together for future success.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers (15-1)

The Green Bay Packers looked like the best team in the NFL for the majority of last season, although the Defense was a big concern with the amount of yards per game they were giving up. That didn't stop people backing the Packers to once again win the SuperBowl, but they failed to win a Play Off game as they were knocked off by the eventual winners, the New York Giants.

This season, the Packers are once again the leading contenders in the NFC, although they are in the toughest Division in my opinion with three real Play Off calibre teams within the North.

I don't have too many concerns with the amount of points the Packers will score as they still have their key players in play on the Offense, while Greg Jennings is back having had injury problems last season. However, they will be looking to James Starks and the Offensive Line to create more holes in the running game as they do feel a better balance will only make Aaron Rodgers that much more productive.

With all the issues on the Defense in 2011, it was no surprise that the Packers spent their first five picks in the Draft on Defensive players and they took Nick Perry with their first pick. He should get playing time immediately, lining up opposite Clay Matthews in the Outside Linebacker position. Last season, they didn't get enough pressure on the opposite Quarter Back so Jerel Worthy may also be expected to have an immediate impact from the Defensive End position.

It is possible to pass on the Packers, but they do have some ball-hawking playmakers in the Secondary that may be able to continue creating turnovers as long as the front seven can get the pressure on the Quarter Back.

The schedule makes the Packers favourites to reach double-digits in terms of wins this season, although I don't think they get up to 15 like they did a year ago. I am projecting them to get up to 13 wins this season which should secure the Division as they take on teams from the weak AFC South and NFC West.

Detroit Lions (10-6)

There haven't been too many positive vibes going into a new season for the Detroit Lions fans in recent seasons and before last year they had ten losing seasons, nine of those with double-digit defeats. However, the end of the 2010 season had shown signs that the Lions were turning things around and that was the case in 2011 as they finished with 10 wins and also made the Play Offs for the first time since 1999.

Detroit may have lost to the New Orleans Saints in the Wild Card Round, but the positives of the season sees them enter 2012 as one of the top contenders in the NFC and another Play Off appearance is the least of their expectations.

As long as Matthew Stafford can stay healthy, this is an Offense that is going to score lots of points. He has a huge playmaker in Calvin Johnson and there is no doubt that the Madden 13 cover boy is the best Receiver in the game at this moment. Titus Young and Brandon Pettigrew are great complements to Johnson and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Stafford reach 40 touchdown passes again.

The one element of the Offense that needs to improve is the running game as the Lions did become a little one-dimensional down the stretch. Jahvid Best has had a number of concussion issues, but Mikel Leshoure is back from a torn achilles and these two players can help the Lions move the chains on the ground. That should improve the Offensive Line play and keep Defenses from zoning in on attacking Stafford.

The Lions Defense was a little poor last season in terms of numbers, but there is a lot of upside here, particularly in the front seven. The Defensive Line has a number of big, powerful pass rushers and it will be down to them to protect a Secondary that still looks the weakest unit of this entire team. If they can get to the Quarter Back, the Lions should be able to improve their numbers, but no pressure will see them being ripped apart as they were by Matt Flynn and Drew Brees in their final two games last season.

I have found it hard to separate the Lions from the Chicago Bears, but their schedule does look like it will provide another double-digit win season as long as their key players on the Offense can stay healthy. 5 of their 8 road games are very tough, while they haven't won more than 5 home games in a single season in the last ten years. However, they have the look of a team that will be able to put up big points and I am projecting another 10-6 season.

Chicago Bears (8-8)

The Chicago Bears were sitting at 7-3 in 2011 before the season fell apart thanks to two big injuries on the Offense that saw them lose both Jay Cutler and Matt Forte for the season. They lost five straight games at that point to miss out on the Play Offs, but these two players are back this season and the Bears look like a Play Off calibre team that could potentially challenge the Green Bay Packers for the NFC North title.

Chicago have Cutler and Forte back this season, but were obviously spooked by what happened last season as they signed Jason Campbell and Michael Bush to add depth to those positions. The biggest revamping this off-season has been at the receiving positions as Brandon Marshall was traded from the Miami Dolphins and Alshon Jeffery was second round Draft pick.

Marshall and Jeffery will have a big impact in the passing game for the Bears and the Offensive Line looks a little better than it has been in recent seasons and they look a really good Offense with a lot of balance in the way they can move the chains.

The Bears have been known for a tough Defense and this season figures to be no different, although they are looking for improvements in the pass rush after picking Shea McClellin first in the NFL Draft to line up opposite Julius Peppers. Brian Urlacher was considered a doubt for the opening games of the season, but he is set to start in his usual Linebacker spot and you have to think there will be an improvement to their numbers from last season in both points per game and yards per game allowed.

Chicago can't be disappointed in their schedule this year and that makes me believe, with their added talent in key positions, that they will be the third team in this Division to reach double-digits in terms of wins. I really can't separate them and the Detroit Lions, and their game in Week 17 may be a 'Play Off' game in all but name, and they are currently favoured in 11 games so a 10-6 record is the minimum I am expecting.

Minnesota Vikings (3-13)


This is only the third season since the Minnesota Vikings were a play or two away from playing in the SuperBowl, but expectations of anything like that are long gone in what will be a transitional season.

Minnesota are just 9-23 in the last two seasons since reaching the NFC Championship Game and they have a number of question marks on the 2012 squad that makes me pretty sure they are going to have their third losing season in a row.

Christian Ponder is the second year Quarter Back, but he is playing behind an inexperienced Offensive Line that struggled to keep him upright last season, while Adrian Peterson is coming off an ACL injury and may be limited in the early part of the season. The receivers are decent, but outside of Percy Harvin there are not a lot of players that can heavily concern Defenses.

Jared Allen will continue leading the Defensive Line after racking up 22 sacks last season, but the Secondary and the Linebacker units are weak or inexperienced and it just seems the fans are going to have to be patient with their team.

Being in the NFC North means the Vikings have six games that are tough right off the bat, but there are some winnable games on the slate as they play Jacksonville, Arizona, Tennessee and Tampa Bay at home and also visit a rebuilding Indianapolis and Washington. However, I think they will do well to surpass the 3 wins they earned last season and I think Minnesota will be a unanimous pick to finish in the basement of the North everywhere except their locker room.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints (13-3)


Where else can you start with the New Orleans Saints projections for the 2012 season than with the bounty-gate scandal that has seen them lose Head Coach Sean Payton for the season as well as Linebacker Jonathan Vilma, while other players are suspended for the early games as is Interim Head Coach Joe Vitt.

There are two ways this season can go for the Saints with all that in mind- either they rally together and have another big year, or they fall apart without their leader and fail to make the Play Offs.

With Drew Brees running the show from Quarter Back, I am backing the former to happen!

Brees was magical last season as he broke the NFL passing record that was formerly held by Dan Marino and also threw 46 touchdown passes. He has lost Robert Meacham in the passing game and Carl Nicks has moved to Tampa Bay from the Offensive Line, but there is still a lot of talent here and Ben Grubbs is an effective replacement on the OL.

They also have the balance of an effective running game that Green Bay would crave and have a number of players that will form a committee with Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles all offering different things from the backfield.

New Orleans biggest question is the Defense due to the bounty-gate scandal, but I actually think they will be able to cover the absentees. It has always been possible to pass against the Saints, but they are a Defense that causes turnovers and they can be comfortable attacking the Quarter Back as the Offense does give them leads to play with.

I won't be surprised if they continue giving up over 350 yards per game as a Defense, but I still believe they will come together over the suspensions they suffered and get the job done.

No team has ever retained the NFC South Division title since its inception, but I am projecting the New Orleans Saints to do that this year. The schedule is tough, but New Orleans are very good at home and I can see them splitting their eight road games to finish at 11-5 this season, slightly down on 2011.

Atlanta Falcons (10-6)


This is Mike Smith's fifth season as the Head Coach of the Atlanta Falcons and he has led the team to the Play Offs in three of his previous four seasons... However, the pressure is now on Smith to lead them to a win in the Play Offs after losing all three of those appearances.

Atlanta have a very solid Offense that may have improved from last season now that Julio Jones has spent a season in the NFL, and there aren't too many weaknesses on this side of the ball. The Offensive Line will protect Matt Ryan enough so he can make plays and Michael Turner is still effective at running the ball to give them balance.

The bigger question for the Falcons may be the Defense which will now have Mike Nolan as the Defensive Co-Ordinator, a Coach who prefers a 3-4 system with what was a 4-3 Defense last season.

Atlanta will look to get more pressure on the Quarter Back from their front 3 or 4, but they have new starters in Linebacker positions and they have signed Asante Samuel to boost the Corner Back positions who is a player that can be burned as he likes risking moves for the Interception.

The Falcons could be a top team again in the NFC if they can get used to what Mike Nolan wants from them, particularly considering the success Nolan had with the Miami Dolphins last season (finished as the Number 6 Defense for points per game allowed).

Atlanta have a weaker schedule than the New Orleans Saints this season, but I think they are more likely to falter in games against Divisional rivals Tampa Bay and Carolina than the Saints so have projected them to finish below New Orleans. They have reached double-digit wins in three of the four seasons that Mike Smith has been in charge here, but I have them finishing 9-7, although only a surprise win or two away from winning the Division.





Carolina Panthers (6-10)


2011 was all about Cam Newton and all he achieved in his rookie season as a Carolina Panther, but that has increased the expectations in his second season.

All the doubts about whether Newton was the right choice with the Number 1 overall pick in the Draft were quickly erased when he took the field and all despite the lockout. Newton can run the ball as well as he can pass and there are enough playmakers on the Offensive side of the ball to think he can avoid the Sophomore Slump.

He is well protected by a decent Offensive Line and there is every chance they can finish in the top ten of both yards per game and points per game as they were a season ago.

The problem for Carolina remains the Defense which doesn't get enough pressure on the Quarter Back nor stops the run effectively. There remains issues in the Secondary and in the Linebacker position and it was no surprise they finished 27th or worse in yards per game and points per game allowed in 2011.

Depth is another concen for the Defense and they may need Frank Alexander and Luke Kuechly to come in and have an impact immediately (both chosen in the first three Rounds of the Draft).

There is a lot of expectation that Cam Newton can continue the upward curve for the Panthers who improved from 2 wins in 2010 to 6 wins last season, but the schedule isn't really conducive to that. The Defense is still rebuilding so Carolina will need to put up a lot of points to win games and I have them reaching the same 6-10 mark as last season with a potential to improve to 7-9 if the Saints have qualified for the Play Offs and rest starters in Week 17.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)


Raheem Morris was fired as the Head Coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after the team crumbled down the stretch in 2011 falling from a 10 win team to a 4 win team. They now have had a complete overhaul of the Coaching staff, although much more is expected of this squad in 2012.

Josh Freeman struggled last season at Quarter Back, but he has been given some new weapons in the forms of Dallas Clark and Vincent Jackson. Doug Martin has also been picked up in the Draft to upgrade the Running Back position, while Carl Nicks was signed in Free Agency to improve the Offensive Line.

'Improve' is the word I have used a lot to describe the Offense and I expect that to be the case for a team that finished 27th in points per game last season.

Tampa Bay had the worst points per game allowed last season and were also 30th in terms of yards per game, but the Defense will be better if they can remain healthy. Mark Barron was their first pick in the Draft and Eric Wright was signed in Free Agency to improve the Secondary and these players will have to have an impact as the Buccaneers struggle to get enough pressure on the Quarter Back.

The coaching changes make it tough to evaluate how the Buccaneers will do this season, but the schedule does give them a chance to surpass last seasons 4 win year. They have improved units on the team that makes me think they can get up to as many as 6 or 7 wins this season, but it will depend on how they react to Greg Schiano in his first ever season as a NFL Head Coach.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers (13-3)

The San Francisco 49ers were the pick of the Division last season and there is nothing that has happened in the off-season to think that it will be any different in 2012.

Alex Smith is back to Quarter Back the team after their flirtation with Peyton Manning and he has been given some new weapons to work with as Mario Manningham and Randy Moss have signed to give him more options in the passing game.

Brandon Jacobs is in to help take the load off of Frank Gore's shoulders, but there have been a couple of changes to the Offensive Line, although nothing earth-shattering that will change the way they play the game.

The Red Zone efficiency of the 49ers was poor last season and led to David Akers hitting the most field goals in NFL history (and he had most attempts too at 52), but the arrival of someone like Moss may just open things up for Smith as he is a big body that will have to be respected by Defenses.

San Francisco's Defense remains one of the best in the NFL and they have exceptional talent on the Defensive Line and at Linebacker, units that just make the Secondary even better with the pressure they can create up front. As long as they stay healthy, I expect the 49ers may just finish in the top 5 of yards per game allowed and points per game.

The schedule is challenging at times for the 49ers, but they will get back into double-digits in number of wins this season and that will be enough for them to take the Division. I don't think the 49ers reach 13 wins though and are likely to be one of the teams involved in Wild Card Weekend.

Seattle Seahawks (7-9)

The Seattle Seahawks have finished 7-9 in each of their last two seasons, but it wasn't good enough to make the Play Offs in 2011 as it was in 2010. While they are still rebuilding the team to Pete Carroll's requirements, they may be one of the surprise teams in the NFC in the coming season.

I was very high on Russell Wilson after seeing the way he performed at Wisconsin last season, and I wasn't that surprised that someone took a chance on him in the Third Round as his leadership qualities and belief in his own game gave him every chance to make it in the NFL. However, I wasn't expecting him to be the starter when Seattle picked him up as they had signed Matt Flynn, the much sought after Free Agent Quarter Back, but Wilson has won the job and will go in Week 1.

He does have some good playmakers around him, but it is Wilson's mobility that might be his biggest asset as the Offensive Line is still inexperienced and gave up 50 sacks last season. Wilson will need the likes of Sidney Rice and Marshawn Lynch to stay healthy, but a rookie at Quarter Back behind this Offensive Line means they will have inconsistencies.

I am high on the Secondary in Seattle as they are the biggest in the NFL and do have the quality to match up with the big receivers we are seeing throughout the League.

It also seems to have been forgotten somewhere that this team finished 7th in Defense last year in terms of points per game allowed and 9th in terms of yards per game allowed. They made a surprise choice by picking Bruce Irvin with their first choice in the Draft, but he will help a team that only had 33 sacks last season.

That side of the ball looks like it has been upgraded this season on an already pretty productive unit and it will be down to the Offense to score enough points for them to protect.

Unfortunately for Seattle, they don't have a nice schedule and face FOUR games in the Eastern Time Zone. They also have a tough start to the season for Russell Wilson and the Offense and could be as bad as 1-7 at Week 8, but I still think they are an improving team that may just equal their 7-9 record for the third straight season with a little bit of luck and a couple of surprise results (remember they knocked off New York Giants in New York, Chicago in Chicago and also Baltimore and Philadelphia).

Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

The Arizona Cardinals were the SuperBowl runners-up in 2008, but the retirement of Kurt Warner in 2009 has left them in an uncertain state at Quarter Back and they are yet to have a winning season since his departure, something I don't expect will change this season.

John Skelton has won the Quarter Back job from Kevin Kolb as the Cardinals were another team that missed on the Peyton Manning sweepstakes. Skelton is a little inconsistent, but will have two big targets this season in Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd (first pick in Draft) and he will also be hoping to have a healthier Todd Heap back.

The Offensive Line remains a developing unit after they allowed 54 sacks in 2011 and they were reinforced with lower Draft picks so I still think that will be an issue for the team. However, Skelton may be able to get the ball out quicker with teams double-teaming Fitzgerald and Floyd being a 6 foot 3 target.

Arizona's Defense is still young and improving and were better in almost all key Defensive categories in 2011 than they were in 2010. Patrick Peterson could be a real shut down Corner Back in the Secondary that will have improved with his year of experience underneath him.

However, the uncertainty at Quarter Back will only take this team so far and that is one of their problems in the NFC West with San Francisco in the Division.

They haven't been given any favours in the schedule and that is why, coupled with the Quarter Back issues, that make have me projecting Arizona below Seattle and finishing with their second losing season in three seasons since Warner retired.

St Louis Rams (2-14)

After 'winning' the Number 1 pick in the NFL Draft in 2009, the St Louis Rams were only one more loss away from finishing in that position yet again last season as they had the joint worst record in the NFL with the Indianapolis Colts. They brought in Jeff Fisher as Head Coach, but the New Orleans Saints' bounty-gate scandal filtered to them as Gregg Williams, who had been picked to run the Defense, was suspended for the entire season.

The overhaul of the Coaching staff is going to cause some teething problems for the Rams, but they do have a franchise Quarter Back here in the form of Sam Bradford as long as they offer him some protection. Last season, they gave up 55 sacks, the most in the NFL, and Bradford missed 6 games as he took a bit of a beating behind the Offensive Line at times.

Unfortunately for Bradford, the Offensive Line is being rebuilt so it could be another tough year for him behind Center. The Rams did take a couple of Wide Receivers in the Draft this year, but they have lost Brandon Lloyd so it seems the Offense will rely on the running game provided by Steven Jackson.

Jackson is a top running back, but is now in his ninth year in the NFL and has had injury problems, although he only missed one game last season. A lot of the Rams Offense is likely to go through him if Fisher's previous Head Coaching roles are anything to go by.

The Rams picked up two players for the Defense in the first three rounds of the Draft this season and there is some talent on this side of the ball. The Defensive Line has players like Chris Long and Robert Quinn who will provide pressure from the Defensive Ends while Michael Brookers will come and play in his rookie season in the middle of that line.

However, I still think there are issues in the Secondary that can be exploited, despite the addition of Cortland Finnegan and it could be another tough season for St Louis (who are rumoured to be moving to Los Angeles so how will the fans respond if they start losing?)

St Louis should be improved from a season ago and the schedule does get easier after finishing in the basement of the NFC West, while they have a Division where they will feel they can take 2 of their 3 home games at the least. I have projected them to at least double last seasons 2 win total, possibly finishing as well as 5-11 in a transitional season.


The NFC looks to be the deeper, stronger Conference of the two in the NFL this season and I think they are going to pick up another SuperBowl winner.

Green Bay should be the team that finishes with the Number 1 seed in the Conference, but they have some ghosts to exorcise after being bounced in their first game last season. I have then projected the Philadelphia Eagles, with their easier schedule compared with the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys, to finish Number 2.

New Orleans and San Francisco should round up the Division winners, but the Wild Card race could be really interesting all the way to Week 17 when Chicago visit Detroit and both the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants face Divisional rivals.

It is really difficult to pick a winner of the Conference as injuries and momentum are factors I just can't predict, but Green Bay have sounded plenty focused in the off-season and may just make home-field advantage count this time around.

NFC Play Off Prediction: Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints, Detroit Lions and New York Giants