NFL Week 1 Picks 2020 (September 10-14)

I think it is partly the fact that the Coronavirus outbreak has basically disrupted my 2020 as well as many others, but also something to do with the fact that the English Premier League, College Football season and the NBA PlayOffs are all being played at different times than I would usually expect.

Whatever the reason, the 2020 NFL season has very much snuck up on me to the point that I honestly can't believe that Week 1 opens up on Thursday.

Last season I was pretty happy with my prediction that the Kansas City Chiefs would win the Super Bowl, although I tipped them to see off the Philadelphia Eagles in the big game.

I only actually got seven of the twelve PlayOff teams right this time last year, but injuries were one reason and jumping aboard a Hype Train was my other issue.

As I said twelve months ago, predictions for how the NFL season would have shaped up by the time we reach February are hard enough to make in December, let alone in September. This season we don't even have a pre-season to try and gather some information, while you simply don't know how effectively players will have gelled with their new teams and how Draft Picks have learnt in a new world without having that day to day contact with Coaches.

The same goes for the new Coaches joining teams to turn around the fortunes of those who have slipped from the level they wish to be operating at, but I can't go into Week 1 without having some thoughts about the way the Divisions, the PlayOffs and the season may shape up.

AFC East- the long time dominance of the New England Patriots in this Division looks to be coming to an end this season with the departure of Tom Brady, although it is a weak Division.

The Buffalo Bills look most likely to take over from the Patriots, but I don't want to draw a line through a team who won ten games with Matt Cassell at Quarter Back and especially not with Bill Belichick still very much in control. Cam Newton, if healthy, is a huge upgrade on Cassell and I do think New England can put him in a good position to be a success and in this Division there is every chance they can find a way to ten wins and earn a Wild Card spot at the very least.

Being a Division winner means a tougher schedule with both Super Bowl teams on the list as well as playing the likes of the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans and hoping Newton remains healthy all season is the big question mark.

If there is a slip the Buffalo Bills look strong Defensively and stronger Offensively which could see them finally get the better of the Patriots on their way to winning the AFC East for the first time since 1995, although I would expect both the Bills and Patriots to make the expanded PlayOffs.

There is no doubt the Miami Dolphins will be improved and they look to be under the perfect Head Coach, but they and the New York Jets are looking for a transitional season to show progression in and that is all I can really expect of both.

Winner- Buffalo Bills; Wild Card- New England Patriots

AFC North- twelve months ago I said the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers would both not be as bad as some people have advertised, but the former far exceeded my expectations and the latter were undone by crucial injuries at key moments.

Baltimore remain the team to beat with Lamar Jackson looking to bounce back from another poor PlayOff showing and I do think this is a team that has picked up some good looking pieces to keep the team chugging forward. I also think the Steelers will be better if Ben Roethlisberger can return to form after being out for almost a year, although Big Ben is definitely closer to the end of his career than the beginning.

Most expect the Cincinnati Bengals to finish bottom of the pile, but I like some of the moves they have made and if Joe Burrow hits the ground running they could at least play spoiler for others. They are still a year away, while the Cleveland Browns are hoping they are just a year behind where most expected them to be after a really poor 2019 that ended with a 6-10 record.

I hate to admit I had the Browns as the AFC North Champion twelve months ago, but it is hard to know what to expect from a team who have a first year Head Coach and a Quarter Back who showed regression in 2019. Baker Mayfield will need to be a lot better if the Browns are going to end with a Wild Card spot at the worst, but I do think he has been given every chance with an improved Offensive Line.

I've got the Ravens coming in with another Division crown, but I would not be surprised if the Steelers have better luck with their health and reach the PlayOffs and possibly even have room for the Cleveland Browns.

Winner- Baltimore Ravens; Wild Card- Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns

AFC South- you can almost draw a line through the Jacksonville Jaguars who have fallen away from the team that were minutes from reaching the Super Bowl in 2018, but the other three teams in the AFC South look capable of making some noise this season.

The Tennessee Titans reached the AFC Championship Game last season, but I still think there are holes to be filled if they are going to become a consistent top team in the Conference, while their Divisional rivals Houston Texans blew a 24-0 lead against eventual Champions Kansas City Chiefs in the PlayOffs.

Houston do look weaker with some more questionable off-season moves by General Manager/Head Coach Bill O'Brien, but they have Deshaun Watson who has shown he can carry this team on his back. However, without DeAndre Hopkins life has become much tougher for him and the Texans also carry the burden of being the Divisional Winner which means a very difficult schedule in front of them

Philip Rivers is hoping to show there is something left in the tank for the Indianapolis Colts who were hurt by Andrew Luck's retirement on the eve of the 2019 season. Even at 7-9 it feels like the Colts overachieved though and having someone like Rivers under Center certainly makes them more dangerous this time around, especially with a very good Coaching staff.

My feeling is that the schedule works best in favour of the Titans and that is why I think they win the Division- if Houston can get into their Week 8 bye with a winning record then I think they might have the momentum to go further, but I also believe a losing record would put the Texans under pressure and especially Bill O'Brien.

The Colts may sneak into the Wild Card spots if Rivers has anything left.

Winner- Tennessee Titans

AFC West- outside of a major injury to Patrick Mahomes I do think the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be winning the AFC West and I am not sure there will be many who dispute that.

The other three teams in the Division, the new Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos all have some issues around Quarter Back which will make it difficult for them, although all look to be improving teams too.

In this Division it is one thing having a strong Defensive unit, but you need to find the Offensive firepower to compete with Mahomes and the Chiefs and that is where these three teams have been focusing in the off-season.

My issue with the Raiders, Broncos and Chargers is that it feels like they can all feast on each other and that means it will be difficult to even fight for a Wild Card spot. All are improving, but may yet be a year away from truly competing.

Winner: Kansas City Chiefs

NFC East- there has not been a repeat winner of the NFC East since 2004 when the Philadelphia Eagles managed to do that and this current crop of Eagles will be hoping to do the same in 2020. I do like the Eagles and as long as they remain healthier they are going to be there or thereabouts when the PlayOff spots are decided, although the Dallas Cowboys look much better than 2019 too.

Both the Washington Football Team and the New York Giants have considerable work to do to challenge at the top of the NFC East again and it does really feel like a two horse race in what was once the toughest Division in the NFL.

Nine or ten wins has been enough to win this Division three times in the last five years and I think the schedules suggest the Cowboys are more likely to reach that mark than the Eagles.

Divisional games will be crucial, while an upset here or there can swing the momentum in favour of Dallas or Philadelphia, while both will believe the additional PlayOff spot should mean at least post-season Football regardless if they go in as Division Winners or not.

Winner- Dallas Cowboys; Wild Card- Philadelphia Eagles

NFC North- for me the biggest disappointment in the NFL in 2019 had to be the Chicago Bears who finished with an 8-8 record and lots of questions about Quarter Back Mitchell Trubisky. Nick Foles has been signed to compete with Trubisky and the big question for the Bears is whether they can get enough Offense together to make sure of what is a strong, but declining Defensive unit.

This is a tough Division with positives about each team, but vulnerabilities which look like the others can exploit.

Aaron Rodgers has to be irritated by the lack of support he seems to be getting in Green Bay where the Packers decided to move up in the First Round to select his replacement rather than Offensive support for a former Super Bowl winning Quarter Back. The Packers were a fortunate looking 13-3 last season and Rodgers is going to need his Defensive unit to continue improving while hoping someone, anyone can give him additional help in the Receiving unit along with Davante Adams.

The Minnesota Vikings have lost some key performers on both sides of the ball, but they remain under strong guidance and will believe their win over the New Orleans Saints in the PlayOffs is something they can build upon in 2020. Mike Zimmer will need that to show he is the long-term answer at Head Coach for the Vikings who are looking for a first Divisional title since 2017.

Another Head Coach that will be feeling the pressure is Matt Patricia at the Detroit Lions having gone 9-22-1 in his three seasons in Detroit. Last season the Lions lost Matt Stafford which did not help their cause, and this team is a lot better than the 3-12-1 record, although they are another team that have to show they finally understand what Patricia wants from them.

I don't think the Packers will win thirteen games in 2020, but I do think they remain the team to beat in a tight Division. With Aaron Rodgers they may just edge to the crown and this is a Division where the teams could feast on one another and prevent any Wild Card opportunities arriving.

Winner- Green Bay Packers

NFC South- the moment it was announced that Tom Brady would be taking his talents to Florida the first thought turned to Brady versus Drew Brees in two Divisional games.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints look to be the teams to beat in the NFC South, but I would not want to sleep on the Atlanta Falcons who finished 2019 as strongly as they did. However, the Carolina Panthers look to be in a rebuilding phase of their development having let Ron Rivera leave as Head Coach and also breaking in a new Quarter Back in Teddy Bridgewater.

Out of the Saints and the Buccaneers I do think the continuity of the Saints will give them the slightest of edges even with a much tougher schedule on deck. Week 1 is a big chance for either team to land a significant mental blow if nothing else, but I would be surprised if either was not able to make the PlayOffs.

Both the Buccaneers and the Saints look like they have ten wins on the schedule, while the Falcons are an upset or two from hitting that mark themselves. All three teams could show enough to take advantage of the additional PlayOff spot that is going to be made available this season and it would not be a huge surprise if the Number 1 Seed in the NFC comes from this Division either.

Winner- Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Wild Card- New Orleans Saints

NFC West- a poor throw from Jimmy Garoppolo was the difference between the San Francisco 49ers winning the Super Bowl or not, although it was a season of inches at times for the NFC Conference Champions. A huge Defensive stand in Week 17 with time running down helped the 49ers edge the Seattle Seahawks and subsequently earn home field throughout the NFC PlayOffs instead of being the Number 5 Seed.

Those two teams look like they are going to be the top teams in the NFC West for another season, although the improving Arizona Cardinals will have to be afforded respect. Much will depend on Kyle Murray's development and whether the Defensive unit have improved much from 2019, so this may be a season that comes too soon for the Cardinals who will simply be looking to challenge for the Wild Card spots.

San Francisco do have questions about Jimmy G at Quarter Back and whether he is really the player to take them over the edge, but all the pieces around him remain productive and strong and I do think the 49ers will be difficult to beat barring huge injuries or serious decline of some of the veterans on the roster.

While Russell Wilson is around the Seattle Seahawks will be a challenger, but the Offensive Line concerns will always mean the Quarter Back is in danger of picking up an injury he shouldn't really be having to face. The Seahawks have always been competitive and look to have seriously strong pieces coming together, although a pass rush on the Defensive side of the ball may be missing.

I would not be surprised if the Division is decided in Week 17 again when the 49ers and Seahawks are scheduled to meet.

You also can't discount the Los Angeles Rams even if there are questions about Jared Goff and his ability from the Quarter Back position. Salary cap issues means the Rams have had to let go of some key players, but they are still a decent squad and the schedule is looking relatively kind as long as they can win those big home Divisional games.

I don't know I can trust Goff to do that, although we could have a fight between the Rams and the Cardinals for the final Wild Card spot in the Conference.

Winner- San Francisco 49ers; Wild Card- Seattle Seahawks

AFC Seeds: 1) Baltimore Ravens; 2) Kansas City Chiefs; 3) Buffalo Bills; 4) Tennessee Titans; 5) Pittsburgh Steelers; 6) New England Patriots; 7) Cleveland Browns

NFC Seeds: 1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers; 2) San Francisco 49ers; 3) Dallas Cowboys; 4) Green Bay Packers; 5) New Orleans Saints; 6) Seattle Seahawks; 7) Philadelphia Eagles

Super Bowl Prediction- Kansas City Chiefs over New Orleans Saints

As I said last year, these predictions can look really dumb really quickly, but it is how I feel things are going to develop at this stage, although it is something worth revisiting at some point in November or December

Week 1 Picks

The NFL is back and I am going to be adding any selections from Week 1 in this thread beginning with the opening game of the 2020 season when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Houston Texans.

A good start to the season will hopefully lead to a strong 2020 campaign, although there are plenty of factors that will be at play that we won't usually be dealing with. I just hope all can stay safe during what has been a terrible few months for everyone around the globe.

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: When you win a Super Bowl as a Quarter Back you have to expect a shiny, brand spanking new contract will await you, but the manner in which Patrick Mahomes played in the PlayOffs last season meant even more to the Kansas City Chiefs. No one should be surprised that Mahomes has been rewarded with the biggest contract in the history of the NFL and he is certainly in a position to help the Chiefs win multiple titles in the coming years.

They will go into the season as the favourites to win the Super Bowl again next year, although things have changed for many in the months since the Chiefs saw off the San Francisco 49ers. The 2020 NFL season will begin without fans in the Stadium and Arrowhead Stadium has long been one of the toughest road venues to play at so this could be a benefit for the visitors to this Stadium until things return to some semblance of normality.

In other sports we have seen some deterioration in home advantage, but it will be interesting to see the impact it has on the NFL. That might be the best bet for the Houston Texans to win this game and earn a measure of revenge for the historical collapse in the PlayOffs inside this Stadium last year.

Houston were leading the Kansas City Chiefs 24-0 with less than ten minutes left in the first half, but that is when Patrick Mahomes took over and had his star shine brightly as he led the Chiefs all the way back to actually lead at half time.

The majority of the starters have remained with the Kansas City Chiefs since their Super Bowl success and I don't think Andy Reid is going to allow the team to slip backwards. Damien Williams did score three Touchdowns in the win over the Texans in the PlayOffs and has decided he will not take part this season, but the First Round Draft Pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire looks like being more than capable of filling in for the Running Back.

And ultimately while Patrick Mahomes is behind Center you would think the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be able to move the ball effectively. Having no pre-season could have an impact, while some teams might not be as far along with their preparations, but you have to believe the  Chiefs are going to be comfortable on the Offensive side of the ball knowing the system and what Head Coach Andy Reid wants from them.

Kansas City showed they can run the ball against the Texans in the PlayOff win, but they might have an even easier outing in Week 1 of the 2020 season with Houston losing key players on the Defensive Line. That only opens things up for Patrick Mahomes even more and I don't think the Houston Secondary is going to be good enough to hold out having allowed 75 points in two games played at Arrowhead Stadium last season.

The Texans can get some pressure up front, but Mahomes is capable of scrambling and throwing very effectively and it feels like Kansas City will be scoring plenty of points in this one.

As many teams in the AFC West believe, the only way to really compete with the Kansas City Chiefs may be loading up Offensively and trying to beat them in a shoot-out. That might have been the best policy for Houston too, but bafflingly they almost gave away DeAndre Hopkins in the off-season in a trade with the Arizona Cardinals and that means their own star Quarter Back Deshaun Watson loses his best target.

It isn't as though Houston have come out and filled the Hopkins gap either and relying on Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller to last the whole season my be foolhardy at best. Deshaun Watson has been frustrated with the direction the team have been moving to the point that some suggested he would push for a trade away from the Texans, and this looks a very difficult opener for him no matter how talented the Quarter Back is.

At the end of the day Watson will need to be protected by the Offensive Line against a strong Kansas City pass rush and that seems unlikely either which ultimately means not finding the time to throw to reliable Receivers. Where DeAndre Hopkins could make a stunning catch or two to move the chains, I am less convinced Cooks and Fuller are able to replicate that.

Instead the Texans may wish to pound the rock on the ground which can chew up the clock and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines. Bill O'Brien decided he wanted to bring in David Johnson as part of the trade for DeAndre Hopkins and he will team up with Duke Johnson to try and control the time of possession.

David Johnson has to show he can return to something like the level he once reached for the Cardinals and the Texans did actually run the ball pretty well against the Chiefs last season. They might have some success in this one again, but things will get very difficult if Houston find themselves two scores down and that would mean shifting from the game plan and having to find Deshaun Watson time to find his own Receivers.

He is certainly capable of finding a backdoor cover with the amount of points being given to the underdog in this one, but I do think the Houston Defensive unit is going to find it difficult to contain the Chiefs.

Kansas City are 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight games as the favourite and they won't have forgotten losing in the regular season to the Texans last season even if they did earn the revenge in the PlayOffs. They are also expected to be better prepared with the continuity through from last season which means 17 of 22 starters remain on the roster and Kansas City are 4-1 against the spread in their last five Week 1 games.

I can't ignore how well the road team has done when these teams meet, but I think Kansas City will be coming out to make a statement and look to have too much Offensive firepower for the Houston Texans.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots Pick: Week 17 of the 2019 NFL season saw the Miami Dolphins upset the New England Patriots and forced their Divisional rivals into the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs. The Dolphins were 16 point underdogs in that game, but the upset was compounded when the Patriots were beaten by the Tennessee Titans and Tom Brady's final pass of the season was a Pick-Six.

Even then not many would have thought that was going to be the final pass Tom Brady would throw as a New England Patriot, but that has turned out to be the case as he left for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. For a while it looked like New England would go into the 2020 season with an inexperienced Quarter Back, but the decision was made to sign Cam Newton and he at least will begin this season looking healthy.

I have no doubt about Cam Newton's ability and the quality of his Receiving corps is perhaps something that the Quarter Back has become accustomed to in his time with the Carolina Panthers. However, the scrambling ability is something the Patriots have simply not had before during the tenure of Tom Brady and I do think they would have spent the off-season tailoring the Offensive unit to be one that runs first.

Last season the Patriots did struggle to establish the run and that should change in the 2020 season as long as Newton remains healthy and effective. The Dolphins will feel some of the signings they have made and the inside knowledge of the New England Patriots will help defending the run, but this new system is one that many of the former players will likely be unfamiliar with and I do anticipate the Patriots having a strong day on the ground.

Anything else will make it very difficult for New England to have success because Newton will not be able to target a strong Receiving unit and this Dolphins Secondary have certainly picked up the talent on the Defensive unit. The Patriots can look to make the quick passes if the run is working for them, but they can't expect to have a dominant day through the air and it all is going to be based on how much they can get out of what should be a good rushing attack.

Changes haven't just been made on the Offensive side of the ball, but New England have lost key performers on their Defensive Line and Linebacker corps on the team. The Secondary still has plenty of experience and talent, but New England will be looking to show what they learnt from the Week 17 upset to the Dolphins who will still have Ryan Fitzpatrick starting at Quarter Back.

Upgrades have been made to the team at Running Back in the year after the Dolphins finished with the lowest yards per attempt average in the NFL. Matt Breida and Jordan Howard are going to give the Dolphins a one-two punch at the Running Back position and Miami would have taken note of how effective Tennessee were in the PlayOffs with Derrick Henry.

No one should confuse Breida or Howard with Henry though and so it may still be a tough day for the Dolphins against one of the better Defensive Lines in the NFL in 2019. While they have lost some of the power of last season, the Patriots will still be looking for Ryan Fitzpatrick to beat them through the air as he did in Week 17 and this time I think the Secondary will be more ready for him.

The Quarter Back did play well for the Dolphins last season so has to be respected, but there is still every chance that Fitzpatrick will have one of his four Interception days which have blown up many of his previous teams in the past. He will be confident, but Fitzpatrick likely knows he is also on a short leash with Tua Tagovailoa the First Round Pick who has looked far healthier than anyone would think he would be at this stage of his rookie season in the NFL.

Miami covered here last season, but had not in their previous seven visits to New England and I do think Bill Belichick is going to have his team prepared to show the rest of the NFL that the departure of Tom Brady does not mean an end to a dynasty. The future Hall of Fame Head Coach prepares his teams methodically and he will be looking for revenge for the loss in Week 17 which proved to be more than a single defeat for the Patriots.

I love Brian Flores and the way he has motivated Miami in his time as Head Coach so have nothing but respect for him. This group of players is significantly more talented than the group he had last season, but going back into Foxboro against an angry team looking to prove something may be too much for the Dolphins to cope with in Week 1.

MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

New England Patriots - 6.5 Points @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Minnesota Vikings - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Baltimore Ravens - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Washington Football Team + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Indianapolis Colts - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals + 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Los Angeles Rams + 2 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL Season Preview 2015 (September 10th)

The NFL season is now just a couple of days from beginning and my opening post for the new season will be a quick preview of the coming season ahead and what teams I perhaps favour to make their way to the Play Offs and potentially Super Bowl success.

It doesn't feel like there has been a lot of time since we saw Pete Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks make a call at the end of Super Bowl 49 that will have people still shaking their heads in disbelief. For the life of me, I will never understand why they chose to throw a ball instead of giving it to Marshawn Lynch on the one yard line and it is a decision that will likely haunt that fanbase for many years to come.

Of course Seattle will be amongst the favourites to get a shot at winning the big prize again this time around so without further ado, I will get on with the preview for the 2015 NFL season.

AFC East

Where else can I start but with the Division in which my favourite team, the Miami Dolphins, reside? It could be exciting times for Miami fans for the first time in a few years as the team looks to finally have made the kind of moves that could make them a contender in this Division.

There have been a few false dawns in recent years and Miami have perhaps underachieved when you consider how close they have been to a return to the Play Offs, but there definitely feels more positive vibes at the beginning of this season. The huge signing of Ndamukong Suh in Free Agency gives Miami one of the best Defensive Lines in the NFL, while they have shifted some of the unwanted big contracts, for example Mike Wallace, as well as the players with character concerns, for example Mike Wallace.

The schedule looks a good one for the Dolphins to try and chase down the New England Patriots who still seem to be the team to beat in the Division. The reigning Super Bowl Champions have made a number of personnel moves in the off-season though and they definitely don't look as strong as last season, although they will have Tom Brady playing after a judge overturned the four game suspension he was given after the 'Deflategate' saga was seemingly drawn to a close.

Players like Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner have moved on from the Secondary, while you don't replace the huge presence of Vince Wilfork on the Defensive Line easily. Tom Brady is a year older and the Patriots might be their most vulnerable in the Division since before Brady took over as the full-time starter.

I think the Patriots will just about hang on to their AFC East Division, while the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets could be the also rans behind New England and Miami.

Both of those teams will know all about Rex Ryan as the former Jets Head Coach takes over in Buffalo and while there is a lot to be excited about when it comes to the Bills, the Quarter Back is not one of them. Some Buffalo fans will point out the success Ryan had with the New York Jets and Mark Sanchez under Center, but they are opening the season with Tyrod Taylor at Quarter Back and he is a lot lower down the totem pole than Sanchez.

Taylor can run the ball and Ryan will be looking for LeSean McCoy to reinvigorate his career in Buffalo having traded for him from the Philadelphia Eagles. Buffalo will be a ground and pound team and have a very special Defense, but a difficult schedule and inconsistency from the Quarter Back may mean they struggle to break into a winning season.

It is still likely to be better than the New York Jets who have become such a mess that their starting Quarter Back is missing the first few games because a team mate punched him and fractured his jaw. Ryan Fitzpatrick at Quarter Back is not the answer as the likes of Buffalo and Houston will tell you and the Jets will be heavily reliant on a returning Darrelle Revis to plug holes in the Secondary.

It looks like a real rebuilding job for Todd Bowles and finishing outside the basement of this Division would constitute a successful season.

AFC North

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the current AFC North Champions, but they were not happy with the way things were going on the Defensive side of the ball and that saw Dick LeBeau leave his post as Defensive Co-Ordinator. A real feature of the Steelers is gone with that decision and Keith Butler will have some big shoes to fill, and he is also having to deal with an ageing unit that have slipped in the Defensive rankings in each of the last two seasons.

Unlike the Steelers of old, this team will look for the Offense to score enough points to keep them moving forward and there are some big playmakers here which make Pittsburgh dangerous. However, they have to make do without Martavis Bryant and, more importantly, Le'Veon Bell for a couple of games, while a more difficult schedule means the Steelers might drop off considerably from the 11 wins they achieved last season.

So who can perhaps take over from the Pittsburgh Steelers as Division Champions? One of the two teams looking to do that are the Baltimore Ravens who have won at least 10 games in four of the last five seasons including last season when they were barely beaten by the New England Patriots in the Play Offs.

However, they too have made some big moves in the off-season that doesn't look like they have improved the team for this season, barring new faces stepping up to the mark. Torrey Smith is gone from the Offensive side of the ball and Haloti Ngata is a big loss on the Defensive side, although that unit looks the better of the two.

If Joe Flacco can get on the same page as new Offensive Co-Ordinator Marc Trestman, this Baltimore team can match the 10 wins they earned last season with the schedule looking a good one even though it begins with a rough road game in Denver.

The Cincinnati Bengals will be looking to be in the mix again and you have to think Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton have to give the franchise a Play Off win at the end of this season if they are going to start 2016 at this team. I give the Bengals a lot of credit for their 31 regular season wins over the last three seasons, but they haven't won a Play Off game since 1990 and that is the next step to prove this Head Coach and Quarter Back are going to get things done.

Cincinnati have kept their key pieces in place for another run to the Play Offs, but theirs is another schedule that will need them to produce a couple of surprising wins if they are going to get back to the 10 win mark and a fifth consecutive Play Off berth.

All three teams will feel they have much better chances than the Cleveland Browns who continue to fail to get out of their own way when it comes to building a team capable of consistent success. The Johnny Manziel experiment is not quite over, but Josh McCown has been brought in as the starting Quarter Back and that looks a terrible decision after seeing the veteran struggle badly in Tampa Bay last year.

Their Defensive unit still looks the better of the two on the team, but Cleveland remain some way off their three Divisional rivals with the moves made this off-season and the Browns might be one of the teams 'chasing' the Number 1 overall Draft Pick next year.

AFC South

One of the favourites to win it all this season resides in the otherwise pretty awful AFC South, but the Indianapolis Colts won't care as it gives them a great chance to wrap up the Number 1 Seed in the AFC. With Andrew Luck likely to be Indianapolis for the next decade, this isn't the only window for the Colts to win another Super Bowl, but they have made some off-season moves to definitely take that step now if they can.

Andrew Luck means you are going to get plenty of points so adding Andre Johnson and Frank Gore to this Offense should only make them more potent. Defensively the Colts still look a little unsure, but they have the capability of outscoring all of their rivals, while a big regular season game is hosting the New England Patriots and proving they can beat that team.

It is the Patriots who have demolished the Colts in the Play Offs in the last two years so winning that game at home might be key for them mentally to prove they are ready to go all the way to the Super Bowl. Indianapolis do have to play the other Division winners, but this Division is paired with the NFC South and there are plenty of 'easy' games on slate for them to finish with the best overall record in the NFL.

The closest challengers to the Colts in the Division look to be the Houston Texans but they are similar to the Buffalo Bills in looking to be a team that might be over-reliant on their Defensive unit. Brian Hoyer has experience of the Bill O'Brien Offense from their time together at New England and he looks to be someone who can produce some special games, but also not too far away from really having a hard time as we all saw in Cleveland last year.

You can have no doubt that the Defensive Line is going to be nasty with JJ Watt patrolling and Vince Wilfork and Jadeveon Clowney alongside him and that is going to inspire the entire Houston Defense. However, winning games comes down to scoring points too and I think the schedule means there is a chance they even take a step back from the 9 wins they achieved in 2014.

With Indianapolis and Houston leading the way, the other two teams in the AFC South are still playing catch up as they continue turning around franchises. Gus Bradley has seen an improvement in the way the Jacksonville Jaguars have been playing even if the record books didn't show that improvement in terms of wins in his second season.

He now has Blake Bortles in his second year as a starter and the Jaguars have made some fine moves in Free Agency and the Draft to show an improved number of wins this time around. The Defense being built looks a strong one and Jacksonville might just have found the Running Back of the next few years in taking TJ Yeldon from Alabama in the Second Round, but they still look a little short of Offensive playmakers.

I think the Jaguars will surpass their three wins from last season, but most of their winnable games are on the road which might mean Bradley has to settle for another losing season. It should be better than the Tennessee Titans to avoid finishing in the basement of the Division for the third year in a row as Ken Whisenhunt continues to get time to rebuild in Nashville.

Marcus Mariota has been picked as the future franchise Quarter Back for the Titans, but the rookie will experience teething problems and the Offensive Line has been rebuilt and might take time to bed in. Dick LeBeau has joined the staff to improve the Defensive unit too, but Tennessee might be looking at a very high Draft Pick again next season with the way the schedule has come down.

AFC West

A couple of one and done' seasons meant the Denver Broncos moved on from John Fox despite those years being sandwiched by one Super Bowl appearance. The Broncos made the move to sign Peyton Manning three seasons ago because they wanted to WIN a Super Bowl and merely getting there once in three seasons with two other disappointing Play Off losses was not enough for John Elway.

Gary Kubiak comes in as the new Head Coach and Manning remains along with most of his key Offensive weapons although Julius Thomas was lost in Free Agency. That might not matter as Kubiak will look to run the ball more to try and power this Offense and Denver look to have a decent balance Offensively if CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman can pick up from where they left off at Running Back last season.

It is on the Defensive side of the ball that Denver looks especially strong and Wade Phillips will be very happy with the players he has to organise into his 3-4 system. The Broncos could generate a lot of pressure up front to create turnovers and make sure their Offense is not relying on Peyton Manning to throw 40 times a game to win.

Denver still look by far the best team in the Division and I expect them to be challenging for a bye in the Wild Card Round of the Play Offs.

The main rivals to Denver look to be the Kansas City Chiefs who finished second in the Division in 2014 and have had winning records in back to back seasons under Andy Reid. The big question for the Chiefs is whether Alex Smith has enough to carry them back into the Play Offs at Quarter Back although I do think Jeremy Maclin is a big upgrade at Receiver and there will be a TD thrown to a player in that position this time around.

Jamaal Charles is a huge player for Kansas City if they can keep him healthy, but the schedule makers haven't exactly been kind to the Chiefs who could easily find themselves in a 0-4 hole after taking on Houston, Denver, Green Bay and Cincinnati to open the season. If they can manage to get out of that at 2-2, Kansas City have a solid Defensive unit that can perhaps carry them into a Wild Card spot, although a poor start will lead to their first losing record under Reid.

I am not so sure what to make of the San Diego Chargers who have considerable talent on both sides of the ball but can be guilty of struggling to put it all together. They are relying on a rookie in Melvin Gordon to spark the running game which would make Philip Rivers more dangerous, and the rebuilt Offensive Line looks one that will give the Quarter Back time to find the likes of Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd, Stevie Johnson and Keenan Allen.

The Chargers have looked to improve the Defensive unit through the last Draft and if they have managed to do that, they can overtake the Kansas City Chiefs in the Division. San Diego look to have the better schedule between themselves and the Chiefs, but they might need an upset or two to make the Play Offs after missing out last year.

The Oakland Raiders might have to settle for another place in the basement of this Division, but they look an improving team who are finally looking to rebuild in the right way rather than throwing bad money on top of bad money. Derek Carr looks to be a potential franchise Quarter Back and I love some of the Draft Picks they have made on both sides of the ball in the last couple of years.

Khalil Mack looks a stud Linebacker and I am expecting big things from Amari Cooper at Wide Receiver, while Latavius Murray might give Oakland a genuine threat out of the backfield.

The change in Head Coach (Jack Del Rio looks an excellent appointment) means a change in systems and that might knock Carr from a big improvement this season. However, this is an improving team that might surpass the number of wins they have had in each of the last three seasons and potentially double their win total from last season (3) if making a strong start to the new season and buying into Del Rio's methods.

NFC East

Every where you look it seems like people are very high on the Philadelphia Eagles to reclaim the Division they lost last season, and I think that has a lot to do with their schedule compared to their rivals. A late season inexplicable collapse cost the Philadelphia Eagles a return to the Play Offs last season, but they are all in with Chip Kelly who has jettisoned some more of the big playmakers including LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin this off-season.

It is all about belief in the system for Kelly who also traded for oft-injured Sam Bradford to be his new Quarter Back in a big trade with the St Louis Rams that saw Nick Foles go the other way.

DeMarco Murray was the other big move made by the Eagles that would have caught the attention and Philadelphia look solid on both sides of the ball. The big thing that goes in their favour has to be the schedule too and they could easily go into their bye week unbeaten and then work their way through to double digit win and perhaps even surpass the number they have achieved in each of the two seasons under Chip Kelly (10).

No doubting that the biggest rivals to the Philadelphia Eagles in this Division are the NFC East winners from 2014, the Dallas Cowboys who believe they can overcome the loss of leading rusher Murray to the Eagles.

With an Offensive Line that has been built through very good Draft Picks, Dallas believe the likes of Joseph Randle, Lance Dunbar, Darren McFadden and Christine Michael can produce solid numbers at Running Back. I'm a fan of Michael and returning to the State where he starred in College could be exactly what he needs to get something going in his NFL career having struggled at Seattle to make an impact.

I have little doubt Dallas will score plenty of points with the Offensive Line wearing down Defenses up front by opening holes for the Cowboys to run the ball down their throat. That only makes Tony Romo more of a threat knowing he doesn't have to push too much and the likes of Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley, Jason Witten and Dez Bryant are much more than a supporting cast.

The issues for Dallas are clearly on the Defensive side of the ball, especially the Secondary with Orlando Scandrick a huge loss having been their best player in Training Camp. Plus winning the Division means taking on the likes of Seattle, Green Bay, while Dallas have road games in Miami and Buffalo compared with the Eagles who those at home.

All of that combined means I don't believe the Cowboys match the 12 wins from last season, but I do think they can get to double digits which might be enough to reclaim the Division if Sam Bradford struggles/is injured for the Eagles, while a Wild Card spot is the minimum this team should expect.

There isn't much to say about the Washington Redskins who look in complete disarray at the moment and have benched RG3 with the likelihood he is traded away soon. I simply don't think Kirk Cousins is the answer at Quarter Back, especially not behind an Offensive Line that simply stinks, while the Defensive unit have too many new faces to really be expected to gel together and form a cohesive unit immediately.

Jay Gruden is under some pressure as the Head Coach and some consider Washington to be the worst team in the NFL, while the schedule doesn't make for great reading and I think this team reaching 4 wins to match 2014 would be pretty remarkable alone.

The New York Giants don't seem to be in as much of a mess as Washington, but who does to be honest, but they haven't really made the moves that can see them close in on the top two teams in the NFC East. Eli Manning does have Victor Cruz back to pair up with breakout Odell Beckham Jr, and I expect they will score points, but there are questions about the Defensive Line and the Secondary that don't seem to be answered.

With an Offense that should be able to score lots of points, I expect the Giants will have a couple of surprise wins, but I also won't be surprised if they are upset a couple of times too. All of it leads me to thinking that New York might end with their third straight losing season under Tom Coughlin and perhaps part with their two time Super Bowl winning Head Coach.

NFC North

I don't think the Green Bay Packers will ever forget the way their 2014 season ended as they somehow snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the NFC Championship Game in Seattle. Whether it was the onside kick they failed to recover, the Interception that inconceivably was not even bothered to be returned, or the conversion of a two point play, the Packers have to feel they should have been playing in Super Bowl 49 and perhaps even adding another Championship to the rafters.

Most teams might fail to pick themselves up, but the Packers still look the team to beat in the NFC North with Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back and some key pieces returning including BJ Raji. Even the injury to Jordy Nelson is unlikely to stop the Packers as I am a big fan of Davante Adams and think he is going to have a huge season.

James Jones has also been re-signed and should add decent depth, while the Packers look like they can have a disruptive Defense that will force teams to throw on them when playing catch up to Rodgers and his Offense. I fully expect the Green Bay Packers to win at least 10 games and I think they will be challenging for the Number 1 Seed in the Division as they host the Seattle Seahawks and the Dallas Cowboys.

The closest rival in the Division is likely to be the Detroit Lions again, but I am interested to see how they do on the Defensive side of the ball having lost a dominant force like Ndamukong Suh as well as Nick Fairley in the middle of the Defensive Line.

Haloti Ngata has been brought in to fill the big shoes Suh has left behind and I think the Secondary might just be exposed now the pressure is perhaps not as strong up front as it was.

However, Detroit still possess a top Offensive unit that should be able to score plenty of points. They will be looking for someone to take on in the running game and Draft Pick Ameer Abdullah could be the man to do that, but it is clear that the Offense will continue to rely upon the arm of Matt Stafford and the catching ability of Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and hopefully an improved Eric Ebron.

A tougher schedule will need Detroit to secure an upset or two if they are going to make it back to the Play Offs for a second consecutive year, but they have the scoring power to do that if Ngata can fill in for Suh on the Defensive Line.

I do love what the Minnesota Vikings are doing under Mike Zimmer and the return of Adrian Peterson to the fold will only aid second year Quarter Back Teddy Bridgewater who already looked pretty comfortable in his rookie season.

I am a fan of Bridgewater and think he was harshly treated to fall so far down the First Round in the Draft of 2014, but the Vikings will be the beneficiary of having him here. Signing Mike Wallace to provide another deep threat for Bridgewater might sound good on paper, but the locker room needs to keep the moody Receiver from breaking the confidence of the young Quarter Back.

Jerome Felton has moved on as Full Back and he was a key in aiding Adrian Peterson to come close to breaking the season rushing record, but the return of the star Running Back and a young cast around him makes the Vikings dangerous. With Mike Zimmer known for the way he crafted the Cincinnati Defense in recent years, he has already had a big impact with the Vikings Defense and this looks a team that might potentially challenge in the Division or for a Wild Card spot.

The problem is a difficult looking schedule and a poor record against their Divisional rivals last season which may mean Minnesota are still a year away from competing barring some big upsets early in the season to build confidence and momentum.

A complete rebuilding job is going to need to be done with the Chicago Bears who have a new Head Coach in John Fox, but have some major holes in both Offensive and Defensive units to make up. Jay Cutler is still the starting Quarter Back, but I am not convinced he has the support of everyone in the organisation, although he needs to be better protected to produce better numbers.

Brandon Marshall has moved on though and the second weapon of choice for Cutler was Kevin White before an injury has knocked him out too. Tim Jennings and Charles Tillman are gone from the Defensive unit and Vic Fangio is going to have to work some magic to make them a competent team on that side of the ball too.

John Fox can turn things around with Fangio as Defensive Co-Ordinator and Adam Gase as Offensive Co-Ordinator, but this looks a transition season and even matching the 5 wins from last season might be beyond them in 2015.

NFC South

The NFC South had never seen a repeating Champion since being form in the Division re-alignment of 2002 and that was the case going into 2014. Somehow, the Carolina Panthers managed to win their last four games of the season to actually repeat as NFC South Champions with a 7-8-1 record, but a three-peat looks like it will be beyond them.

They still look a force on the Defensive side of the ball, but the injury to Kelvin Benjamin has taken away a big weapon from Cam Newton and it is hard to see them consistently moving the chains Offensively.

Jonathan Stewart is the main Running Back these days having previously shared the duties with DeAngelo Williams, but he is injury prone and another losing record looks like it will be the result for the Panthers, but one that won't produce a Division win in 2014.

You have to think that Lovie Smith and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still not ready for a push in the Division having picked Jameis Winston with the Number 1 overall Draft Pick in May to become the franchise Quarter Back. While Winston has some big targets to aim for in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, he will have some rookie teething problems.

Doug Martin has looked good in the off-season and a return to form from the Running Back would be a big boost for Winston, while the conversion back to the Tampa-2 Defense is in its second year and may see an improvement on that side of the ball where the Buccaneers have some talent.

Tampa Bay potentially get out of the NFC South basement for the first time in three years if they take advantage of some of the weaker games on their schedule and I expect an improvement on their 2 wins from 2014 although not enough to challenge in the Division.

Picking a winner in the NFC South hasn't proved easy in recent years but I think the game in Week 17 between the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints may be the decider and I would give the edge to home field advantage and the Falcons.

Dan Quinn has taken over from Mike Smith as Head Coach of the Atlanta Falcons and he has built his reputation on what he created at the Seattle Seahawks as their Defensive Co-Ordinator in 2013 and 2014. Assuming he can get some improvement out of this Falcons Defensive unit that struggled in 2014, Atlanta might be the team to beat.

Brooks Reed, Adrian Clayborn and Vic Beasley are all expected to have an impact for the Falcons on the Defense with the former two being brought in during Free Agency and the latter as a top Draft Pick. Dan Quinn has been blessed with a strong Offensive unit so doing what he did in Seattle will give Atlanta every chance of winning the Division.

Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are two very strong players to have on the Offense, but Atlanta will be hoping Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman can give the Falcons something of a running game to keep the pressure off of Ryan and allow him to have time to make his passes.

Compared with Atlanta, the New Orleans Saints look to be changing their philosophy on Offense and have traded away Jimmy Graham to Seattle in exchange for Max Unger. The Center could be huge for the Saints who want to move to a power running team with Mark Ingram, but the key will be keeping the Running Back healthy, while any team with Drew Brees at Quarter Back is going to be a threat.

Brandin Cooks looks to be the big threat at Receiver as New Orleans moved on Kenny Stills to Miami too with salary cap issues hurting them. The Saints will be hoping Rob Ryan can fix the Defensive problems of 2014 and the big challenge for Ryan will be to incorporate all the new faces at Linebacker and in the Secondary into his system.

If the likes of Dannelle Ellerbe and Brandon Browner can make a big impact coming in, New Orleans might be a better team than I initially expected from them. Drew Brees the Offensive Line to protect him now as the Saints look to run the ball to keep their Quarter Back in manageable down and distance, but they might have to win a road game in Atlanta in Week 17 to get into the Play Offs.

NFC West

The two teams that made the Play Offs last season are expected to be challenging in the NFC West in the coming season.

The Seattle Seahawks have to show there is no Super Bowl hangover after losing the big game in the most excruciating and mind boggling ways possible. That is going to be tough to pick themselves up from, while I am not sure the trade for Jimmy Graham is going to be considered a good one at the end of the season knowing how much they struggled to run the ball without Max Unger last year.

Graham is a big target, but he simply doesn't run block effectively and Seattle remains a team committed to pounding the ball with Marshawn Lynch at Running Back. The Offensive Line has a few questions to answer too and Russell Wilson may have to make a lot more plays with his legs if they can't hold up protection.

Defensively they still look strong, although Kam Chancellor is unhappy and threatened to hold out unless given a pay rise. If Chancellor was to miss time, that would mean two of the four 'Legion of Boom' players from last season are gone after Byron Maxwell moved on, and Earl Thomas has been banged up. The Seahawks still look like the best team in the Division and they have won at least 11 games in their last three years and can expect to challenge for the Number 1 Seed in the NFC for a third consecutive season.

Their main rivals this season look to be the Arizona Cardinals who have surpassed expectation the last couple of years under Bruce Arians and will be looking for better health to reach the levels the fanbase may expect this time around. Carson Palmer returns at Quarter Back after injuries to that position saw Arizona have less than 80 Offensive yards in the Play Offs last season after a positive start to the season looked to have put the Cardinals in a position to win the NFC West.

If Palmer is back to the level he was producing, the Cardinals look solid on both sides of the ball and they are going to be one tough team to knock off during 2015. Arizona have won at least 10 games in each of the last two seasons and the Cardinals will challenge for a Wild Card spot in the NFC although they might need a surprise win or two to reach double digits in terms of wins this season.

The St Louis Rams haven't had a winning record since 2003 and only twice have they finished even, but Jeff Fisher has built a solid roster and has to start producing wins to keep the owners from perhaps think about making changes. Rumours about an impending move to Los Angeles has to be another distraction for the entire franchise, but St Louis can't let that be an excuse for them to fail again.

Nick Foles has been traded for to replace Sam Bradford and St Louis will be hoping for better luck at the Quarter Back position than they had with the former Number 1 overall Draft Pick. Foles had a really big year for the Philadelphia Eagles in 2013 and has to show he is more than a product of the Chip Kelly system and he does have some playmakers on this side of the ball.

However, the majority of the big time players the Rams have are on the Defensive side of the ball and they will keep this team in every game as long as Foles doesn't give it away when the Offense has the ball in their hands.

There is every chance that the St Louis Rams can finish with their first winning season if they can record a couple of big wins in home games later in the season, but challenging for the Division still looks a little while away.

Finally we get to the dysfunctional San Francisco 49ers who have replaced Jim Harbaugh with Jim Tomsula as Head Coach and this looks a real transitional season for the team. The Offensive side of the ball has seen the Offensive Line continue to struggle to protect Colin Kaepernick who has an ageing Anquan Boldin and inconsistent Torrey Smith as his main weapons along with Vernon Davis.

While that side of the ball is going to suffer through some inconsistencies, the Defensive unit has been decimated by retirements and off field issues of some huge players. Justin Smith, Patrick Willis and Chris Borland have all retired, Ray McDonald has been released, while Perrish Cox and Chris Culliver have left in Free Agency.

Vic Fangio has also moved on as Defensive Co-Ordinator and the 49ers now look a mess in a unit that was a strength for them in recent seasons. It is a tough situation for Tomsula to walk into and I am not sure he can motivate this team to get anywhere near a winning record.

With the schedule as it is, I think there is a fairly high chance that the San Francisco 49ers halve their number of wins from 2014 and they could be one of the teams picking high in the next Draft if making a poor start to the season.

NFL Week 1 Picks 2014 (September 4-8)

I can't believe that there have been seven months since the last game in the NFL when the Seattle Seahawks absolutely battered the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl.

I went back to have a quick look at my predictions from this time last year and, while there were some horrific picks in terms of who I thought would make the Play Offs, I picked the San Francisco 49ers to be the team to beat both Seattle and Denver. To that end, I feel I was only one Interception from being able to have hit on those teams and would have favoured the 49ers over Denver, even more so in hindsight.

There have been a number of changes in the rosters heading into the new season, but the elite teams in Denver, San Francisco and Seattle will be the favourites to win the Super Bowl this time around too. New England and Green Bay could be teams on the periphery that may make a move forward, especially if both teams can remain healthy, but there are always a couple of surprise packages that you have to look out for.


Below I have a few thoughts from the season upcoming with my predictions for the Super Bowl and how I feel each Division may end up shaping up. Hopefully this will be the start of another positive season following on from the last season, but the NFL is not an easy sport to pick winners consistently and I will need a bit of luck to land on my side too.


AFC East: This is a Division that has mainly been dominated by the New England Patriots and I do think they are the most likely winners again. The Patriots look improved on Defense with the arrival of Darrelle Revis, and the Offense might have more consistency with a returning Rob Gronkowski and I wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots are challenging for the Number 1 Seed in the AFC as I can see them finishing with a 12-4 record.

The closest challengers in the Division may be the Miami Dolphins who I have projected at 7-9 unless Ryan Tannehill really improves and they may have to settle for another season out of the Play Offs. The Buffalo Bills are backing EJ Manuel this season, but he wasn't appointed a Captain which shows how much his teammates believe in him as far as I am concerned.

Sammy Watkins is a boost to their team, but the Defense might have taken a step back in the Secondary and the Bills may do well to surpass last season and I have them down for a 5-11 season.

One team that I under-estimated last season was the New York Jets, but I still can't see them matching their 0.500 record from last season. Geno Smith is still lacking some serious play-makers in this Offense and the Defense has lost some big players.

Rex Ryan is respected enough to coach this team up so I may be way wrong again with the Jets, but the schedule looks difficult this time around and a 4-12 record may be as good as it gets.


AFC North: This is a Division that I can't really get my head around this season and I have projected the top three teams to all have winning records and potentially all make it to the Play Offs as Wild Card teams as well as the Division winner.

Last season I picked the Pittsburgh Steelers as the Division winner, but they failed to finish with a winning record for consecutive years for the first time in over ten seasons. They began 0-4 last time out, but rallied to finish level and I think they can make a couple of adjustments to end 10-6 this time around.

They are likely to be challenged for the AFC North from old rivals the Baltimore Ravens who I have also projected to finish with a 10-6 record, although a couple of bad bounces could see them struggle to hit that mark.

Baltimore also finished with a level record in 2013, but I like these two old powerhouses to finish ahead of the Cincinnati Bengals who I believe may fall  from their back to back double digit win seasons and end with a 9-7 record this time around. The Bengals have put all their chips into the Andy Dalton basket, while losing Mike Zimmer as Defensive Co-Ordinator may prove to be the biggest obstacle to overcome.

Jonny Football may be arriving at the Cleveland Browns but he doesn't look like he will be a starter and there aren't a lot of weapons on the Offensive side of the ball. The Browns may even struggle to finish with as many wins as last season as I think they will end 3-13 this season.


AFC South: I think the AFC South could be one of the weakest Divisions in the NFL and that means I make the Indianapolis Colts as a surprise team that could win the Number 1 Seed in the AFC. With rebuilding teams in the AFC South that are not quite ready to challenge, Indianapolis could win all 6 Division games and their schedule doesn't pose a lot of problems.

They get New England at home off a bye, while also facing Philadelphia, Baltimore and Cincinnati at  home and I do think the Colts are good enough to finish as good as 13-3 or better this season.

With that in mind, I am not expecting a lot from the Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars who all are beginning new projects or are coming out of a big hole.

The Texans may improve to the point of doubling their 2 wins from last season, while Tennessee could take a step back from the 7 wins they achieved. Jacksonville may be an improving team that Gil Brandt described as a dark horse for a Wild Card spot, but I think their schedule may mean matching last season's 4 wins is a good job from Gus Bradley unless they decide Blake Bortles needs to begin playing.


AFC West: After the embarrassment of the Super Bowl last February, the Denver Broncos have loaded up on their Defense to try and get over the hill. The likes of Aqib Talib, TJ Ward and DeMarcus Ware should all have a big impact for the Broncos, while Peyton Manning can take Denver to the upper reaches of the NFL when it comes to their Offense too.

With the AFC West paired up with their NFC counter-parts, Denver will do well to surpass the 12 wins they achieved last season even if they remain the pick of the teams in the AFC. That could mean that all roads to the Super Bowl in this Conference may not be going through Peyton Manning's backyard as it has the last two seasons.

After strong showings in 2013 which ended with Play Off spots for both teams, I think both the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Diego Chargers may struggle to end the season with a winning record this time around. The schedules are tougher with Denver in the Division, matching up with one another effectively and being matched with the tough NFC West and both may miss the Play Offs this time around.

The Oakland Raiders are an interesting team that have had back to back 4-12 seasons and they may struggle to even reach that with the way the schedule has panned out for the team. Rumours of a move from Oakland may dominate the fans thinking, although they have the experience of playing in London to look forward to and I think the schedule means matching last year's 4 wins would be a success.


AFC Division Winners: New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianpolis Colts and Denver Broncos
AFC Wild Card: Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals
AFC Champion: Denver beating Indianpolis in the House that Peyton Built to reach a second Super Bowl in a row


NFC East: In my opinion, this is one of the most difficult Divisions to forecast in the NFL simply because there is a lot of doubt about every team in the NFC East.

Can the Philadelphia Eagles play the way they did last season or will teams figure Chip Kelly's Offensive schemes out? Will the New York Giants get good Eli or bad Eli? Will Jay Gruden reinvigorate the Washington Redskins? And can the Dallas Cowboys somehow produce anything resembling a Defense to give a powerful looking Offense the chance to win games?

Out of all the teams, I think the Eagles are in the best position to repeat as NFC East Champions even despite losing DeSean Jackson to the Washington Redskins and I think they are the only one that finishes with a winning record.

The Giants will do well to surpass the 7 wins they achieved in 2013 with issues on both Offensive and Defensive Lines to resolve, while Eli Manning might have already slid too far from the ranks of the elite Quarter Backs.

I am expecting a much improved Washington team that might be able to double their wins from 2013, while the Dallas Defense may mean the team settles for just their second losing season in the last ten years.

Washington, Philadelphia and Dallas have a lot of Divisional games in the final weeks of the regular season and it may take a little bit of momentum for any of those teams to reverse/fulfil projections and win the Division.


NFC North: As long as Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy, I would expect the Green Bay Packers to be a leading contender to win the Super Bowl and it will all begin by continuing their recent dominance of the NFC North. The Packers barely won the Division last season after it had looked like Rodgers injury was going to cost them for the first time since 2010.

They had to beat Chicago late in the season to win the NFC North and open at Seattle this time around, but Green Bay have a decent schedule outside of a couple of tough games and I can see them reaching as many as 13 wins this season.

It won't be easy for the Packers, as they are likely to be chased down by the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions for much of the season. The Bears are still transitioning their Defense, but look a team that can score plenty of points and may reach double digits in wins for the third time in five seasons and are a real Wild Card kind of team.

The Lions also should be improved as long as the front four can disrupt Offenses enough to cover the holes in the Secondary and the arrivals of Golden Tate and Eric Ebron give them other passing threats outside of Calvin Johnson. Detroit finish the season with back to back road games at the Bears and Packers and that might be the reason they finish with 9 wins and miss a Play Off berth.

The Minnesota Vikings should be better with Norv Turner known for his Offensive credentials and I expect him to get the best out of Adrian Peterson, while Teddy Bridgewater should start sooner rather than later.

However, I think the Vikings need some breaks going their way to finish better than 3-13 this time around with a difficult schedule to negotiate as well as playing their home games in an unfamiliar venue. Later in the season, those will become unfamiliar conditions with outdoor play in the freezing temperature of Minnesota.


NFC South: Since the realignment of the NFL Divisions back in 2002, no team has won the NFC South in back to back years and I fully expect that to continue this season with the Carolina Panthers not looking in a position to repeat.

The Panthers have lost a number of their playmakers from last season, Cam Newton looks beat up before a ball has been thrown and is playing behind a porous Offensive Line. Of course, Carolina still have an awesome Defensive Line that will pressure opponents, but that might not be enough to hide their problems and they might only win half as many of the 12 games they did last season.

That leaves room at the top and I think the most complete team in the Division is the New Orleans Saints who remain an Offensive machine, but also have the benefit of a second season under the guidance of Rob Ryan as Defensive Co-Ordinator. The Saints look like a team that could earn home-field advantage in the NFC this season and that would make them a real contender to reach another Super Bowl, although that means continuing their dominance at home when Green Bay and San Francisco come calling.

I am also expecting to see an improvement out of the Atlanta Falcons who finished with just 4 wins last season- they have Julio Jones back, but the Falcons may only go as far as their Offensive and Defensive Line can carry them and I project them for 8 wins this season, although that could quickly change if they beat the Saints in Week 1 at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers are an interesting case with Lovie Smith and Lesley Frazier returning as Coaches, but I think they are still finding their real identity Offensively and I don't trust Josh McCown despite his success with the Bears last season. It might be another transitional year with the schedule being what it was and I projected the Buccaneers to finish with a 4-12 record.


NFC West: I don't think you would many people to argue with if you call the NFC West the best Division in the NFL, a far cry from just four seasons ago when it was comfortably the worst. Solid decision making and coaching makes this the most fascinating Division, especially as it houses two of the favourites to win the Super Bowl.

Of course, the Seattle Seahawks have a huge target on their backs after winning the Super Bowl so convincingly and it will be interesting to see if they can become the first team in ten years to repeat as Champions. The tools are there and even the losses hasn't changed the depth in the rotation for Pete Carroll, but the big question is whether they can come through this tough Division unscathed.

I expect the battle to be between the Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers through the season for the Division and it could come to those two epic games between them in a three week stretch beginning on Thanksgiving Day. I expect both to reach double-digits in terms of wins and both should at least the Wild Card, although home field proved invaluable last season for Seattle and may be a key to deciding which team goes furthest this time around too.

The other two teams in the Division would be a leading contender in any other Division other than the NFC West. Out of the two teams, there are more questions surrounding the St Louis Rams who have lost Sam Bradford for the season and will likely b starting Shaun Hill at Quarter Back.

Last season, the Arizona Cardinals won 10 games but missed the post-season and I think the schedule makes it tough for them to reach that again, especially with the loss of key Linebackers and losing Darnell Dockett for the season.

I actually think the Cardinals may take a step back this season unless they get a couple of surprise wins like they did at the back end of last season and could see Bruce Arians' men finishing at 7-9.


NFC Division Winners: Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks
NFC Wild Card: Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers
NFC Champion: Green Bay Packers over New Orleans Saints at Lambeau Field


Super Bowl Champion: Green Bay Packers break Peyton Manning's heart in the big game, 35-31 winners over Denver Broncos.

Week 1 Picks

I had a look back at the results of last season and the difference between 2013 and 2012 was simply the fact that I recovered the terrible weeks with some really big performances. That is the nature of the NFL, although I would love to bring more consistency through the season.

Half of the first six weeks proved to be losing weeks for the picks and I want to improve the percentage of strong weeks, and I do want to improve the 54% strike rate which is the lowest limit from which to produce winning totals, especially where the picks are being managed.

It is a couple of things that I have been noticed from the results over the last couple of years and something to keep in mind going forward.


New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: Both the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons will feel they are going to be capable of scoring a lot of points this season, but the former definitely seems to have an edge in a couple of facets of the game that could prove critical.

I expect New Orleans to have the better Defense against the pass and I also think New Orleans will be able to run the ball more effectively than the Atlanta Falcons which could prove to be the difference in this game.

There have been improvements in the Atlanta Defense, particularly the players brought in to improve the run Defense, but losing Sean Weatherspoon is a big blow, while Jake Matthews is in for a rude awakening in his first start at Left Tackle against the likes of Cameron Jordan.

While both teams should score points with the Receivers on display, I can see the New Orleans Saints making enough plays Defensively to turn the momentum in their favour and secure a big opening week win.

The Saints were a terrible road team last season against the spread, which is my biggest concern in backing them to open the season with a win in the Georgia Dome where they have won on 6 of their last 8 visits.


Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: The Pittsburgh Steelers have to play the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football this week which could take away some of their focus, but I think Mike Tomlin would have reminded them of what a poor start cost them last season.

With that memory still fresh, the fact that this is a Divisional game to open the season should keep Pittsburgh occupied with the Cleveland Browns and I think their younger looking Defense is going to cause problems for a Browns Offense lacking playmakers.

Ben Tate could get established to help the Browns, but I think Brad Hoyer will be need his Receivers to step up in the absence of Josh Gordon and the Steelers actually played the pass pretty well last season. Ryan Shazier improves the Linebackers and Pittsburgh could ride the Defense to inspire the Offense.

There is no doubt that the Cleveland Defense is one of the better units in the NFL, but Pittsburgh will look to wear them down early with a power running game that should be more effective than in recent seasons. Ben Roethlisberger seems happier with what Todd Haley wants the Offense to do too, while Cleveland have had a hard time in Pittsburgh in recent years with 10 straight losses by over two Touchdown a game on average.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: At the end of the 2013 season, there were clear signs that the Jacksonville Jaguars will be moving in the right direction under Gus Bradley after some poor years for this franchise. However, they will begin this season with a number of Wide Receivers out through injury or suspension and Chad Henne remains the Quarter Back despite the pick of Blake Bortles at the top of the last NFL Draft.

Those injury problems at the Receiver position should give the Philadelphia Eagles a chance to begin this season with a decent game from the Secondary, especially if they can generate more pressure up front. That was a problem for the Eagles in 2013, but the Jaguars Offensive Line is still a weakness and Henne isn't someone that is mobile enough to scramble away from pressure.

Toby Gerhart will be the premier Running Back, but he will need the Offensive Line to open up more holes than they did in 2013 so the Jaguars can control the clock in this one.

A bigger concern for the Jaguars is trying to slow down the Philadelphia Offense which was so potent last season. Nick Foles should be more comfortable in his first full season as a starter and they should be able to attack a Secondary that is still inexperienced. DeSean Jackson has moved on, but there are still enough weapons for Foles to attack this Jaguars Defense starting with LeSean McCoy.

This is a non-Conference game on the road for Jacksonville and they were 0-4 against the spread against non-Conference teams last season. The Eagles weren't a great home favourite last season, but they did go 3-1 against the spread in their last 4 games in that spot and I think Jacksonville will struggle to peg them back if they fall into a two score hole.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: This looks like being a tight game between two teams that will believe they are the favourites to win the AFC North this season, and one that shouldn't have a lot of points scored when it is all said and done.

Baltimore are looking for a bounce back year after failing to make the Play Offs last season following their Super Bowl win, while the Cincinnati Bengals want to prove they are better than they have shown in the Play Offs the last three seasons.

Both Offenses may come off second best to their Defensive counter-parts this week, but I think the Baltimore Offense may have the edge. That is mainly down to the continuity they have Defensively and the fact it feels they have more weapons for the Cincinnati Defense to be looking out for.

The Bengals were also just 3-5 on the road in the regular season last season and Baltimore have won at least 6 games from their 8 home games under John Harbaugh as Head Coach.

Add in the ridiculous stat that teams that reached the Play Offs who are then road underdogs in Week 1 the following season are a crazy 2-21-1 against the spread in those games and I like Baltimore to open their new season with an important home Divisional win.


Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears Pick: I can see both the Chicago Bears and the Buffalo Bills doing very well on the ground in this first game of the season with players like Matt Forte, CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson capable of ripping of yards and doing well for Fantasy Football players.

However, I believe the Chicago Bears have the edge when it comes to throwing the ball and it will be interesting to see how the Buffalo Bills deal with a couple of key losses on their Defense in Kiki Alonso and Jarius Byrd from a top ten unit of 2013.

Jay Cutler won't want to be in too many long distance situations considering the pressure Buffalo produced on the Quarter Back a season ago, but he will be keen to get his big time Receivers the ball.

Marc Trestman will be hoping the Defense is in better shape than a season ago, but the return of Charles Tillman and Draft choice Kyle Fuller should improve the team. They will want to get more pressure up front and hope Jared Allen can replace Julius Peppers, but the Bears look in better shape than the Bills coming into Week 1.

The Bills are also just 3-11 against the spread as the road underdog and might not be fully committed to a non-Conference road game with the Miami Dolphins next on deck.


New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Pick: For all the casual players out there, the New England spread looks far too short and they are being pounded to cover in Miami, but those same people need to be aware as to how tough life as been for Tom Brady when visiting this Stadium.

Add in the doubts about Rob Gronkowski and how much playing time he will have, plus the calf injury that Brady is playing through, and I think an improving Miami Dolphins team can keep this very competitive.

A Divisional game will always get the juice flowing, but the Dolphins may even be able to take advantage of the conditions with the humidity that is likely to follow the storms in Miami. Tom Brady may be a little hobbled and is playing behind an Offensive Line that has lost Logan Mankins in recent weeks and you have to believe the Miami Defensive Line is looking forward to getting after the Quarter Back.

Miami will be hoping the Secondary has improved with the signing of Cortland Finnegan to start opposite Brent Grimes, but the key to their success will come by getting pressure up front. I expect New England to be on the same page Offensively, while Shane Vereen/Stevan Ridley could have success moving the chains on the ground.

However, the feeling is that the game could be kept close with a new Offensive Line coming together to give Ryan Tannehill time to make plays with his arm. The young Quarter Back has shown signs of improvement under the tutelage of Bill Lazor, but New England's Defense looks improved too with the addition of Darrelle Revis. Tannehill may be asked to do the majority of the work if the Offensive Line  is still struggling to open running lanes but the Dolphins can certainly make this a game with their successes over New England and the new, quick passing team that they will become.

The Dolphins are 5-1-1 against the spread as the home underdog under Joe Philbin, while New England failed to cover as the road favourite last season. Miami have covered in their last 2 home games against the Patriots too and I think this looks like a field goal game to me.


Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: These two teams could be going in opposite directions in the 2014 season after the Carolina Panthers decided to let go of all their big time Receivers from last season.

Cam Newton has been banged up too and I think an improved Tampa Bay team coupled with the excitement of a new Head Coach at the helm is going to contribute to a Buccaneers win in this NFC South Divisional game.

Tampa Bay's Offensive Line will be under pressure from the front seven that Carolina have, but Josh McCown will remember his time with the Chicago Bears in 2013 and has two huge Receivers that can go up and make plays against this Secondary. Both Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans will believe they have the strength and size to make some plays, although Doug Martin may struggle to be established as a Running Back against a Defense that allowed just 87 yards per game on the ground in 2013.

I still believe the Buccaneers can make some plays and Carolina will have to do the same if they want to win this game. However, Newton doesn't have a lot of options to throw to and he might not be as mobile as he wants to do be with his rib injury suffered during pre-season. Add in the fact that the Carolina Offensive Line allowed more sacks in 2013 than they had in three years with Tampa Bay's 35 sacks last season and Newton could be under pressure all day.

The Panthers may be able to establish a running game through Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams as that was a facet in which the Buccaneers struggled at times in 2013, but Tampa Bay could sell out on the pass and look to make Carolina one-dimensional.

Carolina have been a strong road underdog under Ron Rivera, but they look to have lost a lot of pieces and Tampa Bay may just be able to open with a win in 2014.


Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos Pick: There has to be some anger that the Denver Broncos want to get out in this game and I think this is a bad place for the Indianapolis Colts to be starting their NFL season. The Broncos look improved on the Defensive side of the field and are always going to score their points with the Peyton Manning led Offense, so the question is whether the Indianapolis Colts can keep up.

Unfortunately for the Colts, I can see the Offense becoming one dimensional as I am not expecting a lot of running room for Trent Richardson and that means a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Andrew Luck.

In a shoot out in New England, Indianapolis' Defensive problems meant they couldn't hang with the Patriots in a Play Off game and were eventually beaten easily. The Colts are 4-6 against the spread as the underdog on the road in the regular season, plus they have lost 2 Play Off games on the road as the underdog.

Add the statistic I mentioned earlier of road underdogs in Week 1 coming off a Play Off being 2-21-1 against the spread and the fact Denver are 12-3 against the spread as the home favourite over the last two seasons and I think the Broncos show they are over their Super Bowl hangover.


New York Giants @ Detroit Lions Pick: This is a very simple pick- as long as the Detroit Lions don't do what they normally do, which is make stupid mistakes and shoot themselves in the foot, I think they will comfortably beat a New York Giants team that is still implementing new ideas in the Offense.

I think the additions of Eric Ebron and Golden Tate will allow Matthew Stafford to look away from Calvin Johnson when trying to move the chains and the Quarter Back should have a fairly clean pocket to throw from. The Giants struggled to get pressure up front in 2013 and have lost the likes of Justin Tuck, so the pressure is on the younger players to step up their play, but the Lions should also have success with the screen passes to Reggie Bush to negate any pressure they see.

I fully expect Detroit to be able to score points, but the bigger problem for the Giants is the Offensive Line which is faced with a fearsome front four that the Lions have. Eli Manning hasn't looked comfortable in the new West Coast Offense that has been put in place although I respect the fact the Giants are 11-6 against the spread as the road underdog over the last three years.

Detroit were a poor home favourite over the last couple of years, going 4-8 against the spread in that spot, but I am struggling to see how the Giants can suddenly click into gear Offensively and that should give the Lions the chance to move clear.

Picks for 0 Units: Green Bay Packer + 6 Points, Minnesota Vikings + 3.5 Points, New York Jets - 5 Points, Washington Redskins + 3 Points, Tennessee Titans + 3 Points, Dallas Cowboys + 4 Points, San Diego Chargers + 3 Points

MY PICKS: New Orleans Saints - 3 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 7 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Chicago Bears - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins + 4 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2.5 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units