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Boxing Picks 2026- Johnny Fisher vs Michael Pirotton (Saturday 26th September)

After the back and forth over a number of weeks and months, an announcement was made that Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua would finally be mee...

Showing posts with label May 21st. Show all posts
Showing posts with label May 21st. Show all posts

Thursday, 21 May 2026

Premier League Darts Night 16 Picks 2026 (Thursday 21st May)

We have made it through to the final regular season Night of the Premier League Darts, but not many would have anticipated that almost everything would have been decided ahead of time.

Both Luke Humphries and Gerwyn Price reached the Final on Night 15 and that has pushed them into the Play Offs along with Jonny Clayton and Luke Littler.

The only situation of real importance on Night 16 is determining whether Humphries or Price finish 3rd in the standings and thus take on Clayton in the Semi Final, while the player finishing 4th will face Luke Littler at the O2 Arena.

It is not what the organisers would have wanted and it may finally mean a change in the format, which is something that the fans have been clamouring for over the last couple of years.

At the moment there is no changes and so the last regular season Night will be played as usual and with the Semi Final lineup to complete.


Luke Littler to win & over 5.5 total 180s v Josh Rock: There is nothing to lose for either player in this Quarter Final, but Josh Rock will be looking to round back into some kind of consistent form.

He won the last European Tour title, which is a big achievement, but his Players Championship runs have not been that impressive since then.

Josh Rock will be looking to have one more big impact in the Premier League and there has been little wrong with his maximum hitting, but Luke Littler is well rested and has just received his MBE award.

The World Number 1 has been skipping recent European Tour events and has not been playing in the Players Championship floor events, but he had won three Premier League Nights in a row before losing to Luke Humphries in the Semi Final last week. He may yet be hoping to avoid facing Humphries in the Play Offs next week, at least until the Championship Match, but Littler should also be focused enough to want another strong showing on the stage ahead of the visit to the O2 Arena where he will be looking to reclaim the title lost.

That focus should see Luke Littler have a bit too much for Josh Rock for the sixth time in a row in 2026.


Luke Humphries to win & both players over 1.5 180s v Michael van Gerwen: It took fifteen weeks, but Luke Humphries was finally able to pick up a Premier League Nightly win and remove all drama from Night 16.

The five points on the board have secured the defending Champion a spot in the Play Offs, but he may need to win another Nightly title if he wants to avoid facing Luke Littler in the Semi Final next week.

Luke Humphries picked up another Players Championship title earlier in the week and he will be confident in his own form even if he is to face Littler in his first match back at the O2 Arena, but avoiding the latest clash with the World Number 1 until the Championship Match is preferable.

Momentum is with Humphries who has won a couple of big titles over the last eight days and that will help against Michael van Gerwen who will be very disappointed that he has missed the Play Offs again.

Missing one of the fifteen Premier League Nights with an illness has proved costly for the Dutchman, but his overall form has been impressive and Michael van Gerwen can be confident it will lead to more titles over the remainder of the year.

Unlike Humphries, Michael van Gerwen did not play in the Players Championship events this week- that may be an issue when it comes to trying to beat the in-form World Number 2, but van Gerwen can certainly contribute in what should be a quality match and both players can hit at least two maximums in a Quarter Final that is eventually won by Luke Humphries.


Jonny Clayton-Stephen Bunting over 5.5 180s: Both of these players enjoyed one strong run at the two Players Championship events played earlier this week and that will give them some confidence.

That will be needed as both Jonny Clayton and Stephen Bunting look for much stronger Premier League efforts than in Night 15 when they were beaten 6-0 in Quarter Final matches.

This is a 'dead rubber' in terms of the standings, but both players should be motivated to want to have one more big night on this stage- Jonny Clayton is heading to Finals Night next week and he will be keen to keep his strong form going.

However, Stephen Bunting has shown he can pile in with the maximums when he does find time to build up his rhythm, while Jonny Clayton is very confident around the treble 20 as well.

Only the top two Ranked players in the world have more maximums than Jonny Clayton in the Premier League and this is a Quarter Final that can feature at least six as long as we don't have another blowout one way or the other.


Gerwyn Price to win & most 180s v Gian van Veen: After admitting he was not feeling his best and some uncertainty around his decision to skip the World Cup of Darts, Gerwyn Price produced a couple of key wins last week to earn his spot in the Premier League Finals.

He should be well rested having skipped the latest Players Championship events and Gerwyn Price may have too much for Gian van Veen in this Quarter Final.

The young Dutchman will have learned plenty during his Premier League run, but the last couple of months have been difficult as Gian van Veen has lost some confidence and his own health has not been at 100%.

Gian van Veen was unfortunate in his defeat to Price last week, but that has ended hopes of finishing in the top four in the Premier League standings, while a couple of relatively early defeats in the last Players Championship tournaments will not have helped the confidence.

Motivation has to be questionable for Gerwyn Price who may be more focused on the Premier League Finals next week, but there is a chance to avoid playing Luke Littler in the Semi Final. That may be important enough for the Welshman to dig in on Night 16 and Gerwyn Price has shown his power scoring throughout this Premier League run.

MY PICKS: Luke Littler to Win & Over 5.5 Total 180s @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Luke Humphries to Win & Both Players Over 1.5 180s @ 2.30 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Jonny Clayton-Stephen Bunting Over 5.5 180s @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Gerwyn Price to Win & Most 180s @ 2.87 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Darts 2026: 64-96, - 19.96 Units (157 Units Staked, - 12.71% Yield)

Tuesday, 21 May 2019

Tennis Picks 2019 (May 21st)

I was hoping a few things would have been cleared up in my personal life that would have given me the time to write out fuller Tennis Pick threads over the last week.

However that is yet to be the case and I am expecting a couple more shortened threads this week, but all should be back in line by the time we get round to the start of the French Open on Sunday.

I will update the season totals in the Wednesday Tennis Picks thread, while the tournaments being played this week have to be hoping the rain disappears having seen Monday badly affected. The two WTA events look to have another wet day in front of them, but the two ATP tournaments should be back on track after today.

With days to go before the second Grand Slam of the season begins it is much harder to expect players to want to dig deep and invest a lot of energy playing twice in the same day as they would have done at the Rome Masters. That means selections may not be so easy to make in those spots and it could mean this week is ended earlier for the Tennis Picks as I begin to concentrate on the French Open instead.


MY PICKS: Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tuesday, 14 May 2019

NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Picks 2019 (May 14-21)

NBA PlayOffs 2019- Conference Finals Picks Games 1-4 (May 14-21)
It has taken a month to get here, but we are down to the final four teams in the 2018/19 NBA season and there are a couple of surprises involved.

They might have finished with the Number 1 Seed, but back in August I don't think the Milwaukee Bucks would have had too many backers outside of their own fanbase to reach the Eastern Conference Finals. The Bucks deserve to be here because of how they have played all season, but they have to be considered a surprise name compared with the Toronto Raptors who would have been pegged with the Boston Celtics as the teams most likely going to be in a position to take advantage of LeBron James leaving the Conference.

The Golden State Warriors being involved in a fifth straight Western Conference Finals will have been short odds back in August, but the Portland Trail Blazers have upset the odds to join them. Portland have to be respected for winning two Series where their opponents were picked to beat them, but this is another big step up for them.


In this thread I am going to tally up the results and selections from the first four games of the Conference Finals. I will put together a new thread to cover Games 5-7 from next week if necessary.

So far the PlayOffs have been mainly positive for the NBA Picks, but I had a miserable middle part of the Second Round which meant ending with a slight negative. Overall the numbers are still very much on the up going into the Conference Finals.


Tuesday 14th May
Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors Game 1 Pick: The big news coming out of this Conference Finals is that Kevin Durant is expected to miss at least the first two games in the Series. Both of those are being played at home for the Golden State Warriors who closed their Second Round Series with the Houston Rockets without Durant, but you can't disguise the absence of the best player in the world and what it could potentially mean to the direction this Series takes.

The Portland Trail Blazers rallied from a huge first half deficit to beat the Denver Nuggets in Game 7 of their own Second Round Series and they will be playing with some real belief right now. No one would have picked the Trail Blazers to reach the Western Conference Finals at the beginning of this season after they had been swept out of the First Round of the PlayOffs by the New Orleans Pelicans twelve months ago, but the Trail Blazers have held themselves together for long enough to make their way through to the Conference Finals.

They have had a couple of days to come down from the euphoria of winning a Game 7 on the road, but the Portland Trail Blazers will need to raise their game even more if they are going to upset the Warriors. Even without Durant Golden State showed what they are made of by beating the Houston Rockets in Game 6 on the road and the return to form of Klay Thompson and Steph Curry is pivotal to their chances of having success.

The 'Splash Brothers' can be lights out from the three point range and that is going to be an issue for Portland who will be trying to steal games by outperforming Golden State from that distance. In Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum the Trail Blazers have two players who can get very hot from any distance too, but Lillard has not been at his best in the PlayOffs so far and that has to be a real concern for Portland because they will need both of their top players at their best.

CJ McCollum was the star of Game 7 for Portland, but this is going to be another pressurised environment to play. They did split four games with Golden State in the regular season, but Portland don't really look to be match up that well with the Warriors and especially not with Jusuf Nurkic in the line up.

Enes Kanter has done well in his stead, but the Warriors know they can look to restrict Portland to taking awkward jumpers and I think the superior shooting of the defending Champions can see them through the Series.

In Game 1 I do think the potentially tough seven game Series in the last Round can play against Portland, while Golden State can continue to try and rally together to make up for Durant's absence. The last couple of teams who have won their Conference Second Round Series in Game 7 have been beaten by double digits in Game 1 of the Conference Finals and Golden State are capable of scoring points in bunches to pull away from Portland, even if they remain a tough home team to back against the spread.

Portland are 9-22 against the spread in their last thirty-one games at the Oracle Arena though and they are also just 1-5 against the spread when given 6 or more points as the underdog this season. Zagging after a Portland win has been a good move too as they are 1-5 against the spread in their last six following a win and I do think the emotions of winning their Second Round Series could play into this Game 1.

Unsurprisingly Golden State have some terrible home trends to overcome, but they are 10-4 against the spread in their last fourteen Conference Final games. The Warriors could take advantage if Portland do struggle to make their three pointers in this one and being able to oppose the public with the defending Champions is not a bad thing.

The spread has just come down half a point from opening which may have been down to Kevin Durant's confirmed absence, but I like the Warriors in this one.


Wednesday 15th May
Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 1 Pick: The entire Arena had to hold their collective breath as Kawhi Leonard's shot bounced around the rim for what seemed an eternity. Eventually it fell in Game 7 of the Toronto Raptors Second Round Series win over the Philadelphia 76ers and that has taken the Raptors through to the Eastern Conference Finals.

That game was played on Sunday so the Raptors have had a little more time than the Portland Trail Blazers were afforded when they began their own Conference Finals Series on Tuesday. They are also facing a Milwaukee Bucks team who have earned their spot in the final four much faster than the other three teams competing for a place in the NBA Finals and the Raptors may feel they can get the better of a team who might have lost some rhythm from the long rest between games.

The Bucks crushed the Boston Celtics in the Second Round having dropped Game 1 at home when they had been playing on five days rest. This time they are getting six days rest between games and playing a team with their rhythm and adrenaline pumping from a Game 7 win and who also have had enough time to see fatigue drip away.

However, the Milwaukee Bucks have looked very, very impressive in the NBA PlayOffs as they have won eight of nine games and they have covered the number in each of their wins. They also had the better of the Toronto Raptors in the regular season with three wins from the four meetings between these teams and two of those wins came in blow out fashion.

Toronto do have a very good team, but they are going to find it much tougher against Milwaukee than they did against Philadelphia. This time they face a team with a similar depth and also with a star player in Giannis Antetokounmpo who can match the production of Leonard.

Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka could cause one or two problems for the 'Greek Freak' and Gasol's trade was with a potential PlayOff Series against the Bucks in mind. He has been important for Toronto, but I think Milwaukee can match the depth that the Raptors bring and arguably have the better players around their star performer which can make a difference in this Series.

There are a lot of trends that would favour the Bucks, but it can't be ignored that they were only favoured once in the regular season against the Raptors and lost that game at home outright. They are also 5-14-1 against the spread in their last twenty games when playing on three or more days rest and we saw the Bucks lay an egg in Game 1 of the Second Round Series with the Boston Celtics.

The road team is 7-1 against the spread in the last eight between the Raptors and the Bucks and the underdog has covered in seven straight. Having a bit more time than Portland to recover from a Game 7 win in the Second Round has to help the Raptors in this one too and I can't help but think they are the right play in Game 1 of this Series.

Opposing the Milwaukee Bucks is not something I want to do too often during this Series, but Game 1 looks a strong spot to do that. The Bucks winning all eight games while covering in the PlayOffs can't be set aside easily, but I think the Raptors can keep this one competitive at the least even if I am not convinced they have enough to actually win.


Thursday 16th May
There are times when you have to accept you made the right choices when putting your selections together and simply didn't have enough fortune to earn the winner.

That is the case on Wednesday as the Toronto Raptors led for the large part of Game 1, let alone been in a position to cover, but failed to score in the last four minutes and saw the Milwaukee Bucks produce a 10-0 run which helped them win the game by 8 points.

I really don't think that game could have been capped better and anyone backing the Bucks got a break. However that also means the Bucks are 9-1 in the NBA PlayOffs and they have covered the spread in all of their wins, while the Toronto Raptors have to pick themselves up very quickly with Game 2 being scheduled for Saturday.


Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Pick: The Golden State Warriors finally blew Game 1 open for good in the fourth quarter and that has seen them hold serve and move into a 1-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals. Both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson stepped up as they knew they were going to have to without Kevin Durant and the Warriors are going to be looking for more of the same with Durant at least out for Game 2.

It is going back to the basics which made the Warriors the dominant team that Durant wanted to join and that means creating turnovers with their energy Defensively and shooting lights out from the three point arc. Both were in evidence in Game 1, but it needed a real run at the beginning of the fourth quarter to really take control of things and turn the screw on a Portland team that may also have been dealing with fatigue.

That could be a reason for the lacklustre performance from the Trail Blazers who struggled from the field and were not able to look after the ball anything like they need to if they are going to win this Conference Finals. Even then the team are looking at the positives of sticking with the Warriors until the fourth quarter despite not playing their best game and now it is up to Portland to make the adjustments they need to be more competitive.

CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard both have plenty of room for improvement after a slow Game 1 and they are going to be key for the Trail Blazers. While they are not as strong as the back court that the Warriors have, there is enough talent for Lillard and McCollum to at least match the 'Splash Brothers' in a one off game and that is key for Portland who also have to look after the ball much better than they did in Game 1.

Portland have won at the Oracle Arena in the regular season so they should not be overawed by the situation, but it is tough off a seven game Series to be asked to play back to back games on the road. In fact it is the third road game in a row for the Portland Trail Blazers, but the players won't want to return home in a 0-2 hole and I do think it is going to be a real motivated Trail Blazer team who should be a lot better than a couple of nights ago.

I do think the Trail Blazers will shoot much better than they did in Game 1- the reality is I can't imagine they can play as poorly again all around- and the dept of Portland could give them a chance to perhaps steal Home Court. They are appealing with the start on the spread in this one, especially when you think of the Golden State record against the spread at home.

Golden State are 19-41-2 against the spread in their last sixty-two games following a double digit win which is a remarkable number. They also face a Portland team who are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven following a loss and so I can see the road team covering, although I think they are going to have to be much better Offensively to do that.

If they are then this is a game that could surpass the total points line after that number dropped a couple of points from Game 1 to Game 2. I still anticipate the Golden State Warriors to earn their points even if they should be more challenged from the three point line and the 'over' has a strong trend in recent games between these teams and also in recent Portland games when coming in off a loss.

My expectation is an improved Portland who have refocused will come out in Game 2 and I do think the line is right on the money with a case that can be made for both sides. My lean is that the Portland Trail Blazers will cover in Game 2, but I think that will have to happen in a game where both teams hit the triple digit mark by a comfortable margin and so I am going to back this game to surpass the total line being set.


Friday 17th May
Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 2 Pick: I was on the Toronto Raptors two nights ago and felt pretty disappointed with the end of Game 1 as they blew a lead and didn't cover the spread thanks to failing to score in the last three minutes. The fans must have felt even worse as the Raptors missed a huge opportunity to steal Home Court in the Eastern Conference Finals and I am struggling to know how Toronto can pick themselves up from such a loss after needing seven games to get through their Second Round Series.

The fact of the matter is they are also facing a much better team than the Philadelphia 76ers and now the Milwaukee Bucks should have shaken off the cobwebs that was clearly evident in their play in Game 1.

They were playing that one off a big rest between games, but this time the Milwaukee Bucks are off a day of rest and I expect them to be a lot more ready to go from the off. Once again they showed they can wear down an opponent and I do worry for the Raptors that their role players are not stepping up to the plate as they would like.

Kyle Lowry had a huge Game 1, but it is hard to expect the Bucks to allow him to dominate from the three point line as he did. I would also expect the Milwaukee shooters to be a lot more ready to go than they were in Game 1 and by the fourth quarter of that one you could see the rhythm was coming back so I am expecting them to pick up from where they left off.

It makes it tough to see how the Raptors can be any better barring someone like Pascal Siakem coming out of his slump. The length of the Bucks makes it very difficult to challenge them and they have some wonderfully strong trends which back them in this one.

The Raptors dropped to 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games and Milwaukee remain perfect in the post-season against the spread whenever they have won a game. I would have loved to be backing Milwaukee off a straight up loss like I did in the Second Round against the Boston Celtics, but I think the players will be looking to show a much more complete game anyway in Game 2 and I will back them to win and cover.


Saturday 18th May
Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 3 Pick: The Portland Trail Blazers are in a similar position as the one the Toronto Raptors were facing in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. After blowing a chance to steal Home Court in the last game, the Trail Blazers have to pick themselves up immediately and try and respond in the right way.

That was not the case for the Toronto Raptors who were blown out by the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 2 on Friday, but Portland are in an even more desperate position as they return home 0-2 down. Another defeat will all but end this Series and it is hard to see how Portland can play much better than they did in Game 2.

Even the Golden State Warriors admitted that they were fortunate to come away with the win in Game 2, but win they did as they continue to deal without Kevin Durant. The All Star has been ruled out for the next two games as he has not travelled to Portland, but this could be important time off for Durant who is still hoping to be passed fit if the Warriors reach the NBA Finals which is set to begin later this month.

The Warriors are not playing badly without Durant having won their last three full games in his absence and also holding off the Houston Rockets in Game 5 of the Second Round Series in which he was injured. They seem to have found a good rhythm that the players had before Durant signed for the team and this does seem to be a difficult spot for Portland having invested so much to come up short on Thursday.

They have some decent trends that favour them and of course there is the recent NBA winning trend of backing a team that is 0-2 down in a Series on the half time spread. The layers have cottoned onto that trend and so Portland are actually by the same amount at half time as they are to win the full game.

Portland did have a big lead at half time of Game 2, but that trend of backing a team 0-2 down in a Series to be covering at the end of the first half has remained true this season. That includes the Houston Rockets doing the same in a Game 3 win over the Golden State Warriors in the Second Round Series and I think that might be the best back to back Portland who should come out with some intensity to try and make this Western Conference Series competitive.


Sunday 19th May
Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors Game 3 Pick: The Toronto Raptors need some of their role players to step up right now if they are going to make this Eastern Conference Finals something more than a procession for the Milwaukee Bucks. In reality the Raptors should have been at least level in the Series, but they blew a big chance in Game 1 and were then blown out by the Bucks in Game 2.

It can be easy to overreact to the fact that the Milwaukee Bucks have only held serve so far in the Conference Finals by winning the first couple of games at home. However the Toronto Raptors are under pressure to respond as no team has won a PlayOff Series in the NBA when they have trailed 0-3, but teams have made positive starts to games in which they are trailing 0-2.

That was the case on Saturday when I backed the Portland Trail Blazers on the Half Time spread which saw them cover easily. The problem was they could not contain the Golden State Warriors in the second half and perhaps some fatigue is involved for the two teams who needed a Game 7 to win their Second Round Series.

You can't deny that the Toronto Raptors have to be concerned about that fatigue that has built up with some of their bigger names going cold in the fourth quarter. Being back at home might be a real inspiration though and we have seen Portland cover in the Half Time market on Saturday and the same trends apply for the Raptors here.

I just can't oppose the Milwaukee Bucks who have been so good in the NBA PlayOffs and who should be highly motivated considering the layers have set them as the underdog in this one. This is a team who have a star in Giannis Antetokounmpo, but whose role players are stepping up and different players have taken over the last couple of games to help them lead 2-0.

Milwaukee not only covered as the underdog twice on the road in the PlayOffs at the Boston Celtics, but they also won both of those games straight up. They are 9-2 against the spread as the underdog and you can add in the fact that the Bucks have won twice on the road against the Toronto Raptors already this season and both of those wins have come as the underdog too.

The Bucks have a very strong 20-6-1 record against the spread in their last twenty-seven on the road and the mental edge over the Raptors could see them come on strong in the second half of this one. I did consider laying the points on the Half Time market as I did with the Portland Trail Blazers, but my main belief is the Milwaukee Bucks being able to exert their pressure on the Raptors as they continue to give them plenty of issues with the size they have.

So many factors seem to be pointing to the road underdog winning here and I am going to back Milwaukee to do that in what should be a lower-scoring game than Game 2 barring the referees getting whistle happy again.


Monday 20th May
Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 4 Pick: For the second game in a row the Portland Trail Blazers blew the big first half lead they had opened up by going cold in the third quarter. Once again it was the Golden State Warriors taking advantage of that and then wearing down this opponent to move to 3-0 in the Western Conference Finals as they recorded a comfortable win on the road and now have a chance to close the Finals with the first sweep in the post-season in 2019.

It won't be easy for Golden State to do that when you think of the pride with which the Portland Trail Blazers will likely be operating. They were swept out of the PlayOffs by the New Orleans Pelicans in the First Round twelve months ago, but another sweep would be a real body blow for the players to absorb considering they had their chances to win Game 2 and Game 3.

Damian Lillard has not been allowed to dominate the Series and his task has been made all the tougher by news that he is playing with separated ribs. I have no idea how that works, but it sounds excruciatingly painful and puts more pressure on CJ McCollum and the rest of the team to step up for him.

At times different players have managed to get hot from the field, but the Portland Trail Blazers won't be surprised that it has been hard for those role players to maintain their performance throughout the 48 minutes of each game. With the Warriors not changing what they want to do and how they want to Defend against this team, those players have begun to miss the open looks they have received and Golden State have been far too good for Portland.

While I am expecting the crowd and the players to perform with the motivation of wanting to extend this Series at least one more game and avoiding consecutive sweep defeats in the post-season, it may still not be enough for Portland. They have taken two huge mental blows having lost the last two games despite holding big leads at half time and it is tough to imagine how Portland can pick themselves up to really compete at the level they need.

It was Draymond Green who picked up the Warriors in Game 3 on Saturday and this is a team that has performed with a level of comfort even without Kevin Durant. They seem to have rallied together and gone back to the old methods that proved successful even before Durant signed for the team and Portland have not been able to cope with the power scoring surges Golden State have been able to put together.

The body language was not ideal from the Trail Blazers in Game 3 as it slipped away from them, although my one concern in backing the Warriors has to be how much intensity they are going to have in coming out for a sweep. They have needed to rally in the last couple of games with big second half recoveries to wipe out big deficits and I am not sure they will be able to do the same here knowing they will be likely able to close the Series in a couple of days time when it would return to the Oracle Arena.

However if the Trail Blazers are feeling sorry for themselves it could be a real chance for Golden State to get this Series done and then have ample time to rest before the NBA Finals are due to begin. The Warriors are 5-3 against the spread in their last eight games when leading a PlayOff Series 3-0 and all of those have been played on the road which should mean the players are very much aware of what they need to do.

Portland have bounced back from heavy losses and recent trends are favouring them, but the way the last two games have gone has been hard to shift for me. Pride is one thing, but mentally it will be difficult for Portland and I think the Warriors will be able to play their way into Game 4 and eventually pull away for another win and another cover.


Tuesday 21st May
Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors Game 4 Pick: A double Overtime was needed for the Toronto Raptors to dig deep and just about hold off the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 3 to pull this Series back to 1-2. The pressure is still on the home team to look after their own court or they could be facing elimination when the Eastern Conference Finals will be heading back to Milwaukee in a couple of days time.

It really took a big effort from the Raptors who basically led from wire to wire, but couldn't quite finish off Milwaukee when they had the chances to do that. Late missed free throws gave the Bucks the chance to keep extending the game and that could have taken something away from the Toronto legs even though they managed to win the game.

Kawhi Leonard had a huge game despite showing an obvious limp during Game 3 as he played 52 minutes. He admitted he is feeling sore, but Leonard has shown he wants to dig deep for his team even though he may be moving on in Free Agency at the end of the season..

Despite the loss, the Milwaukee Bucks have to still be feeling pretty confident about their chances of reaching the NBA Finals to take on the Golden State Warriors. They played as poorly as they have in any game in the PlayOffs and yet they were right there at the end with a chance of winning and that was without Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe making a real impact on things.

George Hill continues to step up for the Bucks and give the bench a huge boost and it would not be a big surprise if he is given a starting spot in favour of Bledsoe who has been struggling in the post-season. Those minor adjustments could help Milwaukee move to the brink of reaching the NBA Finals, although I don't think there is anything to really worry about right now and there is a real chance they go into Game 4 with a similar mindset as the last couple of games.

The oddsmakers are certainly expecting to see a positive reaction from Milwaukee as they have been set as the favourite just two days after being the underdog in the same venue. They might be taking no chances in opposing the Bucks who are 21-5 against the spread in their last twenty-six games following a loss and who are 4-1 against the spread in their last five in Toronto.

Toronto have to be respected at home and they are 5-3 against the spread when set as the underdog being given less than 3 points. They also have performed well when hosting the best teams in the NBA, but the fatigue factor has to be going against them after the way Game 3 ended.

With the Milwaukee Bucks showing immense bounce back performances throughout the season, I am expecting a big response from the road team. I can't imagine Antetokounmpo and Middleton both struggling again as much as they did in Game 3 and those two can take the Bucks over the edge here and get into a position to close the Eastern Conference Finals in two days time.

MY PICKS: 14/05 Golden State Warriors - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
15/05 Toronto Raptors + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
16/05 Golden State Warriors-Portland Trail Blazers Over 218.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
17/05 Milwaukee Bucks - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
18/05 Portland Trail Blazers - 2.5 Points HALF TIME @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/05 Milwaukee Bucks @ 2.10 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
20/05 Golden State Warriors - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/05 Milwaukee Bucks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

NBA Conference Finals Update: 4-4, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Second Round: 12-11, - 0.04 Units (23 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
First Round: 23-17, + 4.02 Units (40 Units Staked, + 10.05% Yield)

Sunday, 21 May 2017

Weekend Football Picks 2017 (May 21st)

The final weekend of the Premier League 2016/17 season is played on Sunday before a few Cup Finals and a round of World Cup Qualifiers completes the campaign.

Only four days after the Scotland v England World Cup Qualifier the fixtures for the 2017/18 Premier League season will be released, although the two months wait for the new season will feel like a long time.


Arsenal v Everton Pick: They might have beaten Watford 1-0 at home last weekend, but Everton have not been at their best in the final weeks of the season as the players have achieved all of their goals for the current campaign. That doesn't mean they are going to roll over for Arsenal in this one, but Everton have looked like they have been struggling for motivation at times.

Everton haven't been that good away from home this season either and the lack of motivation compared with Arsenal might prove to be a difference maker.

Like many times in recent seasons, The Gunners are finishing the season with a flourish, but this time it looks like they are not going to do enough to finish in the top four. Arsene Wenger will urge his team to focus on their own matters and win this game to force Liverpool to do the same when they host Middlesbrough, but an early lead for Liverpool is likely to see the supporters turn on the manager.

The players have at least responded for their manager and I think Arsenal will have the majority of the play as they look to end the season with a fifth consecutive home win. Arsenal still have the likes of Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez to open the door against a stubborn Everton team who are missing some key defensive faces and I think they can win this game.

Only two teams, Chelsea and Liverpool, have beaten Everton by more than a single goal margin this season, but I will look for Arsenal to do that this weekend against a demotivated opponent.


Burnley v West Ham United Pick: There is no doubt that a number of the players in both squads will be looking forward to the end of the season in which Burnley have overachieved and West Ham United have underachieved. While Sean Dyche is preparing for the new season already, Slaven Bilic is under big pressure as manager of West Ham United with the raised expectations there.

It is important that Bilic sees a reaction from his players after the awful display in the second half of the 0-4 loss to Liverpool. West Ham United looked disorganised and offered very little resistance to the speed and creativity that Liverpool produced on Sunday.

That is not going to be the way that Burnley approach things and so it may be a little easier for West Ham United to defend this weekend. They had been looking solid in the new three at the back system before being ripped apart by Liverpool, and goals may be at a premium when you think how Burnley have just lost their edge down the stretch.

I do think Burnley have the slight edge in terms of motivation playing at home, and a narrow success for the home team would not surprise me here. However I think there could be a real end of season feel to this one and I am backing fewer than three goals to be shared out between Burnley and West Ham United in this one.


Chelsea v Sunderland Pick: There will be another party atmosphere at Stamford Bridge where Chelsea will be given the Premier League trophy at the end of this fixture. However this time the fans will likely be given a chance to thank the majority of players who led the way for the triumph in the League this season and that doesn't bode well for this Sunderland side.

It was yet another away loss for Sunderland during the week and they can thank goalkeeper Jordan Pickford for only losing by a couple of goals at Arsenal. The team looks tired and not up to the standard of the Premier League and it feels like it will be a long afternoon for them against a Chelsea team who will want to sign off at Stamford Bridge in style.

The 'win to nil' is not as attractive as it was for Arsenal to beat Sunderland on Tuesday and instead I am looking for Chelsea to win this one by a wide margin.

They did concede some sloppy goals against Watford on Monday, but Chelsea should have the key players back in the defensive unit and Sunderland have simply not shown they can score a lot of goals.

With the attacking players likely to enjoy some spaces, Chelsea can win this one with a slightly easier margin than Arsenal produced on Tuesday.


Hull City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The last couple of weeks have been difficult for Hull City as what looked like being a positive fight against relegation were ended in unceremonious fashion. The 0-2 home loss to Sunderland seems to have deflated all confidence and belief that Marco Silva had built up and following that up with a 4-0 loss at Crystal Palace underlined that.

It will be difficult for the players to go out on a high on Sunday despite their really strong record at home under Silva’s watch. The problem for Hull City is they are facing a Tottenham Hotspur team who have been in rampant form and are making a serious bid to make sure they end this season with positive momentum behind them unlike last season.

On the final day last season Tottenham Hotspur visited the North East against an already relegated opponent and were humbled 5-1 at Newcastle United. That is unlikely to happen again this weekend and it is more likely that Tottenham Hotspur will reverse that scoreline if their 1-6 win at Leicester City on Thursday is anything to go by.

A team playing with the confidence Tottenham Hotspur have is going to be tough to slow down and I am not sure I can see how Hull City will be able to compete with them. While Hull City have had some really good results at home under Silva, including beating Manchester United and Liverpool, confidence has to be shot.

I can only see another strong Tottenham Hotspur win on Sunday to sign off on another season of improvement and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.


Leicester City v Bournemouth Pick: 10th place looks to be on the line when Leicester City and Bournemouth meet in the final fixture for both clubs on Sunday and that might initially sound like an almost meaningless achievement. However there is no doubt the difference in feeling when ending with a top half finish compared with a bottom half finish and so both Leicester City and Bournemouth should be motivated enough.

Leicester City are coming off a humbling experience from Tottenham Hotspur on Thursday and there has to be some tiredness in the legs. That is an area Bournemouth will look to expose with their passing game keeping the home players on the move and chasing the game.

However The Foxes have been very good at home under Craig Shakespeare and I think Thursday might just be an exception to the rule. Leicester City have scored plenty of goals since Shakespeare took over from Claudio Ranieri, but defensive injuries means there will be chances for Bournemouth too.

It does feel like both clubs will create opportunities for the likes of Jamie Vardy and Josh King and I am going to look for the season to finish with a flourish at the King Power Stadium on Sunday.

I backed goals when Leicester City hosted Tottenham Hotspur on Thursday and I think there will be goals in this one as two attacking teams meet.


Liverpool v Middlesbrough Pick: This is a huge game for Jurgen Klopp and Liverpool for the development of the club as they are on the brink of getting back into the Champions League. The financial aspect is one element, but being able to offer big name players the chance to compete in the premier European competition is huge for Liverpool as they try and bridge the gap to the teams above them in England.

Failure is simply not an option for Liverpool and the only way they can guarantee their place in the top four of the Premier League is by winning this fixture. The concern for the fans has to be the fact that Liverpool have not won any of their last 3 at Anfield against the likes of Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Southampton, and that will open the door for Arsenal.

However, I think facing Middlesbrough or Sunderland would have been the ideal situation for Liverpool and I think an early goal could potentially see Middlesbrough crumble. They have tried to be more positive under Steve Agnew, but that has seen the side concede 11 goals in their last 3 away games and at least three times in each game.

Middlesbrough have looked disinterested and lacking belief in their losses to Chelsea and Southampton over the last two weeks and I am not sure they can pick themselves up to dent the Liverpool bid to make the top four.

The one thing Liverpool can do is score goals and I expect they are going to be able to breach the Middlesbrough defences a few times. It could be nervy if there is a narrow lead being protected by the home team, but I can see Liverpool putting Middlesbrough to the sword early and creating enough chances to win this game by a comfortable margin to ensure Champions League Football is back at Anfield in August.


Manchester United v Crystal Palace Pick: This is clearly a game that both Manchester United and Crystal Palace would likely happily set aside and move on to more important matters. After confirming their place in the Premier League last weekend, the Crystal Palace players may easily have booked their holiday plans for the coming couple of weeks before the World Cup Qualifiers for some and the focus and intensity might not be there.

On the other hand, Manchester United are not playing a recognised team in this final game with the Europa League Final just days away and Jose Mourinho has already stated he hoped Crystal Palace will take it easy against his young team.

It does make the prices on a Crystal Palace win attractive to a point, but those have shortened in the last week as Mourinho's intentions have been made clear. Now that Crystal Palace have secured their place, it is also hard to know how much the players will really push forward to win here even if someone like Wilfried Zaha would love to show the Old Trafford crowd what didn't work in his time with Manchester United.

The young Manchester United players will have an education trying to break down a Crystal Palace team organised by Sam Allardyce and this feels like it could have a pre-season kind of feel for both teams.

That usually means limited goals and the fans at Old Trafford may have to sit through another 1-1 scoreline which has been grating on so many over the course of the season. That scoreline is the one that worries me when it comes to opposing both teams scoring here like I did when Manchester United travelled down to St Mary's during the week, but I will look for this game to feature fewer than three goals on Sunday.


Southampton v Stoke City Pick: With the season ending on Sunday, it is hard to know what the future holds for Southampton and Stoke City who have both struggled down the stretch which won't have pleased the fans. It would be a huge surprise if Stoke City didn't give Mark Hughes another transfer window to bring in the players he wants to improve this squad, but Southampton are almost certainly going to be looking for someone to replace Claude Puel.

A lack of goals has been the complaint for both Southampton and Stoke City and all the signs are pointing to another game which will send the fans to sleep at St Mary's. There is a lot of endeavour in the Southampton side, but they can lack a cutting edge, while Stoke City's flair players just simply don't play as well away from the Bet365 Stadium.

There are many an occasion at the end of season when teams loosen up and produce fireworks and that could happen here if an early goal is scored by either. However it feels much more likely that the teams could sleepwalk through the ninety minutes with limited chances at both ends and so I will go back to the same pick I had when Southampton hosted Manchester United on Wednesday.

Southampton have failed to scored in 5 of their last 6 home League games, but they have also had 3 goalless draws in that time including on Wednesday. Stoke City had failed to score in 6 straight away games before the 2-2 draw at Bournemouth last time out and I will back one, if not both, team to fail to score on Sunday.


Swansea City v West Brom Pick: Instead of the tension filled final day of the season that Paul Clement and the Swansea City supporters must have been expecting, this game at the Liberty Stadium is a chance for the fans to show their appreciation of their club which has avoided relegation to the Championship.

The hard work will begin on Monday for Clement, but for now he will send the players out to enjoy their relative successes. It should mean Swansea City can play with some freedom and enjoyment in front of their fans where they have won 5 of their last 7 Premier League games.

That has been vital to their achievement of escaping the bottom three and another win looks to be on the cards on Sunday against a West Brom team who have been demotivated since March. The lack of intensity has seen West Brom lose 6 of their last 7 Premier League games and the players may struggle to match Swansea City in this final game.

It is what I am expecting on Sunday and I can see Swansea City winning another home game under Paul Clement which will give them plenty of belief going into the new season. Home form is likely going to be important for them again in the 2017/18 campaign and I will back The Swans at odds against to earn the three points on offer on Sunday.


Watford v Manchester City Pick: The decision to announce Walter Mazzarri's sacking days before the end of the season is an interesting one from Watford and I am not sure he is going to get the reaction from the players he would want. There have been suggestions that the players and the manager have not seen eye to eye for some time and now he is going, the current team may decide they can perhaps ease off.

That would be a huge danger against this Manchester City team who have looked rampant at times over the last few games of the season. They can score plenty of goals and being away from home has suited Manchester City with the expectation that opponents will come onto them at some stage and leave spaces open.

Watford will feel they can create chances against this defence, but the lack of motivation could be a real problem for them.

On the other hand, Manchester City will be searching for the three points that will take them into the Champions League Group Stage next season and I expect they will earn those. Manchester City have won 11 times away from home in the Premier League, which only trails Chelsea's 13 away wins, and 8 of those have come by at least two goals.

The majority of those have come against teams in the bottom half of the Premier League table and I can only see one winner this weekend when these teams conclude their campaigns.

I just don't think the Watford players will be able to match the intensity that Manchester City will come in with, nor deal with the pace and creativity in the final third considering all the defensive absences in the home team's squad. I will look for Manchester City to conclude the season with a bang and cover the Asian Handicap.

MY PICKS: Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Burnley-West Ham United Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City-Bournemouth Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.50 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Liverpool - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester United-Crystal Palace Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Southampton-Stoke City Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Swansea City @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Thursday, 21 May 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (May 21st)

Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: Marin Cilic had to dig down much deeper than he would have imagined to see off young star Andrey Rublev in the Second Round, but the more playing time he gets, the better for the US Open Champion. After a long lay-off through injury, it will take some time for Cilic to get back to his very best, although he is one of the better grass court players in the world and should enjoy the extended season on that surface.

First of all Cilic is trying to get himself into some form to take into the French Open as he looks to make an impact at the second Grand Slam of the season after missing the Australian Open. Cilic's win over Rublev should set him up for a solid week in Geneva ahead of the tournament in Paris, but backing it up won't be easy against Santiago Giraldo.

It has not been the best clay court season for the Colombian, although his two wins in Geneva will have helped Giraldo get back on track. However, he has a bad match up against Cilic whose aggression on return has put the pressure on Giraldo in their four previous matches which have all been won by the Croatian.

There have been signs of Cilic getting back to that aggressive return game which helped him win the US Open last September, but consistency will be an issue for him for a while because of that lay off. However, I think his ability on the court and what he wants to do matches up well with Giraldo and I can see Cilic finding his way into the Semi Final with a 64, 64 win behind him.


Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Federico Delbonis: Stan Wawrinka hasn't quite made it onto my blacklist despite some poor recent performances of late as he looks to change his form on the court after some off-court issues have been affecting his personal life. Those issues have seen Wawrinka have troubles finding the consistency to string some wins together, but playing back in Switzerland should help as should the fact that he is meeting an opponent who hasn't been pulling up any trees himself.

You have to respect any player that has won back to back matches to reach the Quarter Final, although the level of competition goes up a couple of level for Federico Delbonis in this match. The Argentinian has been a little inconsistent in recent weeks, but he did win a Challenger tournament and Delbonis is much more comfortable on the clay courts than the other surfaces.

That will make Delbonis a dangerous Quarter Final opponent for the home favourite, but he has struggled at the highest level this season and will offer Wawrinka chances to break serve and come through.

I can see match with breaks both ways on current form, but one that Wawrinka eventually takes control of as he come through 75, 64.


Juan Monaco - 2.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: Two Argentinian players who are most comfortable on the clay courts meet in a Quarter Final in Nice with the winner in a very strong position to go all the way and win the title. Leonardo Mayer might be the Number 1 Argentinian player on the ATP Tour at this moment in time, but I think Juan Monaco is producing more positive results and can win the battle between them.

I do think Mayer has the stronger serve, but I would favour Monaco to be able to dictate the rallies from the baseline and eventually he should have the chances to break serve and control the match. There are times when Monaco seems to feel the pressure when ahead, which would be a concern against a quality player like Mayer, but the former has been winning more matches of late which should help him through the tough moments.

There will be some long rallies and some gruelling moments for both, while I also expect there to be chances to break serve for both Monaco and Mayer.

However, I think Monaco will eventually find more winning rallies as he breaks down the Mayer game and I think the former can frank the form that saw him beat Mayer in Buenos Aires earlier this season.


Borna Coric - 3.5 games v James Duckworth: There are a couple of really big talents coming through the ranks and one of those is Borna Coric who is looking to reach his first Semi Final since Dubai in February. That isn't to say that Coric hasn't been playing well, but that simply he is like many other young players who struggle for consistency.

This is the kind of tournament where someone like Coric can make hay as many of the top names are already preparing for the French Open and it is no surprise that he is the favourite to see off James Duckworth in this Quarter Final.

It is a surprise to see Duckworth reach the Quarter Final, but he has taken advantage of Gilles Simon's withdrawal at the top of the draw and his two wins this week are not really up to the level of main ATP Tour events. That fortune has helped the Australian and Duckworth has spent the majority of his time playing at Challenger level on the clay courts with his game much more suited to the fast surfaces.

While Duckworth can serve well at times, he is going to have to be very strong from the baseline if he is going to secure the upset. I would give Coric a real edge when it comes to the extended rallies that tend to develop on a clay court and I think the youngster comes through 64, 64 to move into the Semi Final.


Jelena Jankovic - 1.5 games v Sloane Stephens: She might not be at the same level as when she managed to reach World Number 1, but Jelena Jankovic is still capable of very strong showings and I like her chances against Sloane Stephens on a clay court. The biggest question mark about Jankovic is whether she is over the issues that has seen her miss the majority of the clay court season, although her performance in Rome and winning two matches here have erased any doubts.

With the way that Sloane Stephens can play, this is far from an easy match for Jankovic even if I do think the latter is the stronger player on the clay courts.

Jankovic has also found a way to diffuse the Stephens power and extract enough errors to win all three previous matches between these players, although none of those have come on the clay. Stephens has done well to come through her two matches here too, but this is her worst surface and Jankovic is the better mover on it.

That can be a key in the extended rallies as the better mover is more likely to be in a more effective position to turn the tables and I think Jankovic is playing well enough to do that. This might need three sets to separate the two players, but I like Jankovic to find a 76, 46, 63 win to move into the Semi Final.


Elena Vesnina - 3.5 games v Virginie Razzano: Both of these players came through Second Round matches impressively as the underdogs and now have a real chance to pick up some vital Ranking points. Elena Vesnina is Number 95 in the World Rankings and Virginie Razzano is Number 251 which only highlights how important the points they can earn are this week with big names not taking part in the draw.

Vesnina displayed all of her power to knock Alize Cornet off of her game and come through in three sets on Wednesday which means she has now won 4 of her last 5 matches to improve confidence. Virginie Razzano was an impressive winner over Francesca Schiavone, but she has mainly been playing at a lower level to try and rebuild her career and I think that is going to be an issue in this match.

Razzano has really not been competing with so much on the line in recent weeks and I think that can play a part mentally as the Frenchwoman tries to get back up the World Rankings. She has gone through some real hardship off the court which will have made her a stronger character, but Razzano could be pushed back by the power of Vesnina if the latter is on her game.

That power might be enough to help push Vesnina onto the baseline and dictate this match, although she has to avoid the unforced errors that blighted her in the first set against Cornet yesterday. If she can do that, I believe she can get the better of Razzano in a 64, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elena Vesnina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-3, + 4.36 Units (18 Units Staked, + 24.22% Yield)

Wednesday, 21 May 2014

Tennis Picks 2014 (May 21st)

The tournaments before the French Open will be continuing on Wednesday as Second Round action commences. The Tuesday picks produced a 2-2 record, while I have only found two matches of interest through the day with thoughts already turning to Paris.


Dmitry Tursunov + 2.5 games v Robin Haase: It hasn't been a good clay court season for Dmitry Tursunov with some really poor results on the surface, but one of the successes he had came against Robin Haase in Monte Carlo.

The Dutchman also has had a pretty poor six weeks on the clay courts, although he did reach a Semi Final in Bucharest and that will have sapped some confidence for Haase who relies on mentally being in a strong place to win matches.

Tursunov's serve may keep Haase on his toes in this one and I think the heavy shots off the ground could give him the edge in this match. It was the first serve that gave Tursunov a platform to build upon in Monte Carlo and if he serves at a high clip in this Second Round, I would expect him to come through.

Either way, I am struggling to understand why Tursunov is the underdog in this match by a considerable margin and I will take the games he is being given.


Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 games v Martin Klizan: Martin Klizan must feel in a great place having won nine matches in a row which saw him take the title in Munich after qualifying for that event. He had some big wins over the likes of Tommy Haas and Fabio Fognini in that tournament and is obviously in a good place, but Ernests Gulbis should pose plenty of problems for him.

It has taken some top players to prevent Gulbis from really going deep into a tournament the last month, but the Latvian is playing some of the most consistent tennis of his career.

Gulbis has a decent serve and a heavy weight of shot off the ground and I expect that will trouble Klizan, although the latter has a lefty serve that will cause its own problems.

A tight first set may end in a tie-breaker, but I expect Gulbis to then pull away and win this match 76, 63.

MY PICKS: Dmitry Tursunov + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.20 Units (8 Units Staked, - 2.5% Yield)

Tuesday, 21 May 2013

Tennis Picks 2013 (May 21st)

There is a lot of rain around in Europe at the moment, particularly in the north of France and Belgium where a couple of the WTA tournaments are being played this week. It could also be a slight problem for the organisers of the French Open as it is expected to rain every day in Paris up until the weekend meaning a lot of the qualifiers for the next Grand Slam could be forced indoors.

Hopefully the tournaments this week will get back on track on Tuesday and I will be looking for a couple of guys coming out of Challenger events last week to push on with wins in the main tour events.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: Santiago Giraldo is very comfortable on the slower clay court surfaces, but he has the game that can be a little erratic at times and I am expecting him to give his opponents some chances to break his serve.

That is an area that could be taken advantage of by Gael Monfils as the Frenchman looks to get himself moving back up the Rankings after an injury plagued twelve months. Monfils is ranked outside of the top 100 and had to rely on a Wild Card to play here in Nice and at the French Open next weekend.

Monfils, however, has looked to build his confidence by playing in a Challenger event last week and actually went on to win in Bordeaux. A win in the Challenger level of events won't be what Monfils would be expecting from his career, but he has needed to get some wins under his belt and that could be enough to propel him back up the Rankings.

This won't be easy for Monfils, but getting the home crowd backing him and with the confidence from last week may just see him over the line in this one.


David Goffin v Grega Zemjla: Another player that had a good week in Bordeaux was David Goffin who reached the Semi Final where he was beaten by eventual winner Gael Monfils.

The last twelve months have been a real eye-opener for Goffin after it seemed he had the world at his feet following a Fourth Round appearance at the French Open where he pushed Roger Federer.

However, it hasn't been so good for the Belgian player when the big crowds are no longer watching his matches, and he hasn't had a lot of wins under his belt this season. Even with that in mind, he could be facing the correct opponent in Grega Zemjla who has also spent more time losing matches this season and one that has struggled to turn his form on the clay courts when it comes to main tour events.

It wouldn't surprise me if the match went the distance, but Goffin's run to the Semi Final last week may stand him in good stead to win this one.


MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Goffin @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Christina McHale - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet 365 (2 Units) To be completed from Monday

Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Saturday, 21 May 2011

Jean Pascal v Bernard Hopkins II- May 21st 2011

The rematch for the WBC Light Heavyweight Title takes place on Saturday 21st May in Montreal after the quite astonishing draw from the first fight between these two men a few months ago.

On that occasion, Jean Pascal came out swinging in the early rounds and legitimately put Bernard Hopkins on his backside, but the later rounds were dominated by the wily veteran who aims to become the oldest World Champion in the history of this fine sport.

Hopkins should not be underestimated- for a fighter who lost his first professional fight to come back and have the career he has is quite a feat in itself. He seems to be getting better with age and is one of the best underdogs to have on your side.

Felix Trinidad, Kelly Pavlik and Antonio Tarver have all been defeated in fights where Hopkins was the underdog and who would back against him surprising again.

Jean Pascal is more famous in England and Europe for his tear-up with Carl Froch in December 2008, his sole loss. However, the Haitian is more famous on the other side of the Atlantic for dethroning Chad Dawson, one of the real up and coming stars of American boxing.

The fight should develop much more in the form of the latter rounds of their first encounter as Hopkins will now be aware of the punching power Pascal has in the early rounds. I expect the veteran to steer clear and box well in the early rounds and once again begin to dominate the latter stages of the fight.

George Foreman has been around in Hopkins' corner and suggests the older man will only get the title if he wins the fight by knockout.. I dont think it will need to come to that as Hopkins will once again show his superior talent and know-all to pull the decision.

The fight might not be the most exciting of the year, and I think the scorecards will read around 117-111 in Hopkins' favour.

There is a slight chance Hopkins does get the stoppage late as Pascal becomes a little wild trying to get the knockout he will need by the time the last 3 rounds begin, but after seeing him survive a punch-up with Carl Froch, I would be surprised to see him stopped.


MY PICK: Bernard Hopkins to WIN @ 2.4 Sporting Bet (2 UNITS)