The Tennis continues in the lead up to the French Open which begins on Sunday, but the tournaments being played this week will be hoping the weather settles down to ensure they are finished on Saturday as scheduled.
I've placed the Second Round Picks being played on Wednesday in this thread.
This should be the last time I am not able to write out any analysis for the Tennis Picks between now and the end of the French Open. Things have been a little hectic to prevent that happening over the last couple of weeks, but that should be cleared up going forward.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Nikoloz Basilashvili - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Christian Garin - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-2, - 1.80 Units (6 Units Staked, - 30% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Geneva Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Geneva Picks. Show all posts
Wednesday, 22 May 2019
Tennis Picks 2019 (May 22nd)
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Tuesday, 21 May 2019
Tennis Picks 2019 (May 21st)
I was hoping a few things would have been cleared up in my personal life that would have given me the time to write out fuller Tennis Pick threads over the last week.
However that is yet to be the case and I am expecting a couple more shortened threads this week, but all should be back in line by the time we get round to the start of the French Open on Sunday.
I will update the season totals in the Wednesday Tennis Picks thread, while the tournaments being played this week have to be hoping the rain disappears having seen Monday badly affected. The two WTA events look to have another wet day in front of them, but the two ATP tournaments should be back on track after today.
With days to go before the second Grand Slam of the season begins it is much harder to expect players to want to dig deep and invest a lot of energy playing twice in the same day as they would have done at the Rome Masters. That means selections may not be so easy to make in those spots and it could mean this week is ended earlier for the Tennis Picks as I begin to concentrate on the French Open instead.
MY PICKS: Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
However that is yet to be the case and I am expecting a couple more shortened threads this week, but all should be back in line by the time we get round to the start of the French Open on Sunday.
I will update the season totals in the Wednesday Tennis Picks thread, while the tournaments being played this week have to be hoping the rain disappears having seen Monday badly affected. The two WTA events look to have another wet day in front of them, but the two ATP tournaments should be back on track after today.
With days to go before the second Grand Slam of the season begins it is much harder to expect players to want to dig deep and invest a lot of energy playing twice in the same day as they would have done at the Rome Masters. That means selections may not be so easy to make in those spots and it could mean this week is ended earlier for the Tennis Picks as I begin to concentrate on the French Open instead.
MY PICKS: Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
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Thursday, 24 May 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (May 25th)
The final week before a Grand Slam begins is a tough time to be making daily picks from the Tennis Tour and it is no surprise I have only had three picks all week despite four tournaments being played.
The last two have both come back as winners but I didn't see anything I liked to follow those up from Wednesday and had a day away on Thursday.
Instead I had a quick look through the French Open draw which was made on Thursday evening- the tournament begins on Sunday, the only Slam to begin on a Sunday, and I will have my break down of the draw and any outright picks ready to go on the site on Saturday.
Day 1 Picks will also be out on Saturday evening with the First Round matches scheduled for that day and I am looking forward to two good weeks in Paris. I wish I was going this year and it is now five years since I visited the French Open which is a remarkably long time considering how close I actually live to the event.
The French Open remains one of my favourite tournaments though and I can't wait for the start this weekend.
Before that I have some Tennis Picks from the Semi Final matches in Geneva and Strasbourg which can be read below.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Peter Gojowczyk: This is a rematch between these two players from the Rome Masters last week where Fabio Fognini was able to get the better of Peter Gojowczyk in straight sets.
It was a deserved win for Fognini who was a little fortunate to come through his Quarter Final match here in Geneva although he is arguably the favourite to win the title now Stan Wawrinka is out of the draw.
Fognini has not been as strong as previous years on the clay courts, but his return has been in good shape and he should have success against Gojowczyk like he enjoyed in Rome last week.
On the other hand Gojowczyk has room for improvement on his own return of serve despite putting three solid wins together here in Geneva. His return of serve could be more effective and I think that is going to be a difference maker between these two players on Friday with Fognini more likely to produce the break points and subsequently take those opportunities when they come his way.
It could be a tight match if Fognini is as erratic as he can be, but I think he may win in a similar fashion to Rome when he got the better of Gojowczyk with a break more in each set of a straight sets win.
Steve Johnson v Marton Fucsovics: Both of these players deserve a lot of credit for making it through to a Semi Final on the clay courts at Tour level, but it does look like Steve Johnson is playing the better tennis of the two.
Marton Fucsovics has had the best win this week when he was able to beat Stan Wawrinka, although Johnson managed to beat the Swiss player last week on this surface. Much of those wins are down to Wawrinka's recent return to the Tour, but Johnson has added solid looking wins over the likes of Guido Pella to add to his confidence on the clay.
His opponent has to be respected with the wins he has produced this week to reach the Semi Final but the numbers from the American have been very good. He has been serving at a high level on the clay and that had made Johnson tough to break, while he is doing enough on the return to get into a position to win matches.
A strong serve means opponents perhaps feel the pressure of their own serve against Johnson and I think Fucsovics will feel that too. His numbers behind the serve are simply not at the same level as Johnson and I like the latter in what is a pick 'em match.
Dominika Cibulkova v Mihaela Buzarnescu: After some injury issues, Dominika Cibulkova looks to be rounding into strong form and she has played really well in Strasbourg so far this week.
The serving has been very effective and Cibulkova has always been an aggressive returner who can enjoy playing on the clay courts. 2017 was a tough season for her on this surface, but 2018 has looked a lot better over the last couple of weeks as Cibulkova has restored some confidence with a number of wins in that time.
It will be a test of that confidence when Cibulkova takes on Mihaela Buzarnescu who has had a stunning rise up the World Rankings over the last nine months. She was dominant on the clay courts at the level below the main WTA Tour and Buzarnescu has taken that onto the main Tour with a run to the Final in Prague.
Her three wins this week have been very impressive, but Buzarnescu had lost three matches in a row on the clay before the tournament in Strasbourg began.
Both players do have similar numbers which is why the layers have this down as a pick 'em match and I think it is going to be a very close one. However I think Cibulkova has the more impressive wins this week and she is playing at a very good level at the moment which may be tough for Buzarnescu to match over the course of a couple of hours.
Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: Ashleigh Barty has been a real success since returning to professional tennis and she has looked very comfortable on the clay courts over the last couple of months. Not many players will want to run into Barty at the French Open after close losses to Caroline Wozniacki and Maria Sharapova and those can be reversed in the form she has displayed.
Barty has really leant on her serve which is an underrated shot and she has a very strong return which is going to put some pressure on Anastasia Pavlychenkova when they meet in the Semi Final on Friday.
The Russian has been in good form this week herself, but the underlying numbers are not nearly as strong as the ones Barty has put on the board.
Pavlyuchenkova has a very good serve of her own which can produce plenty of cheap points, but her second serve is attackable. She also can struggle with her movement and I think Barty is the better defender of the two players which can be a key factor on the clay courts.
There is also a significant difference in the way the two players have returned and the success they have had on that side of the court. Barty looks to have a real edge in that department and I think the Australian will beat Pavlyuchenkova and be able to cover a big number in this second Semi Final in Strasbourg.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Steve Johnson @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.70 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
The last two have both come back as winners but I didn't see anything I liked to follow those up from Wednesday and had a day away on Thursday.
Instead I had a quick look through the French Open draw which was made on Thursday evening- the tournament begins on Sunday, the only Slam to begin on a Sunday, and I will have my break down of the draw and any outright picks ready to go on the site on Saturday.
Day 1 Picks will also be out on Saturday evening with the First Round matches scheduled for that day and I am looking forward to two good weeks in Paris. I wish I was going this year and it is now five years since I visited the French Open which is a remarkably long time considering how close I actually live to the event.
The French Open remains one of my favourite tournaments though and I can't wait for the start this weekend.
Before that I have some Tennis Picks from the Semi Final matches in Geneva and Strasbourg which can be read below.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Peter Gojowczyk: This is a rematch between these two players from the Rome Masters last week where Fabio Fognini was able to get the better of Peter Gojowczyk in straight sets.
It was a deserved win for Fognini who was a little fortunate to come through his Quarter Final match here in Geneva although he is arguably the favourite to win the title now Stan Wawrinka is out of the draw.
Fognini has not been as strong as previous years on the clay courts, but his return has been in good shape and he should have success against Gojowczyk like he enjoyed in Rome last week.
On the other hand Gojowczyk has room for improvement on his own return of serve despite putting three solid wins together here in Geneva. His return of serve could be more effective and I think that is going to be a difference maker between these two players on Friday with Fognini more likely to produce the break points and subsequently take those opportunities when they come his way.
It could be a tight match if Fognini is as erratic as he can be, but I think he may win in a similar fashion to Rome when he got the better of Gojowczyk with a break more in each set of a straight sets win.
Steve Johnson v Marton Fucsovics: Both of these players deserve a lot of credit for making it through to a Semi Final on the clay courts at Tour level, but it does look like Steve Johnson is playing the better tennis of the two.
Marton Fucsovics has had the best win this week when he was able to beat Stan Wawrinka, although Johnson managed to beat the Swiss player last week on this surface. Much of those wins are down to Wawrinka's recent return to the Tour, but Johnson has added solid looking wins over the likes of Guido Pella to add to his confidence on the clay.
His opponent has to be respected with the wins he has produced this week to reach the Semi Final but the numbers from the American have been very good. He has been serving at a high level on the clay and that had made Johnson tough to break, while he is doing enough on the return to get into a position to win matches.
A strong serve means opponents perhaps feel the pressure of their own serve against Johnson and I think Fucsovics will feel that too. His numbers behind the serve are simply not at the same level as Johnson and I like the latter in what is a pick 'em match.
Dominika Cibulkova v Mihaela Buzarnescu: After some injury issues, Dominika Cibulkova looks to be rounding into strong form and she has played really well in Strasbourg so far this week.
The serving has been very effective and Cibulkova has always been an aggressive returner who can enjoy playing on the clay courts. 2017 was a tough season for her on this surface, but 2018 has looked a lot better over the last couple of weeks as Cibulkova has restored some confidence with a number of wins in that time.
It will be a test of that confidence when Cibulkova takes on Mihaela Buzarnescu who has had a stunning rise up the World Rankings over the last nine months. She was dominant on the clay courts at the level below the main WTA Tour and Buzarnescu has taken that onto the main Tour with a run to the Final in Prague.
Her three wins this week have been very impressive, but Buzarnescu had lost three matches in a row on the clay before the tournament in Strasbourg began.
Both players do have similar numbers which is why the layers have this down as a pick 'em match and I think it is going to be a very close one. However I think Cibulkova has the more impressive wins this week and she is playing at a very good level at the moment which may be tough for Buzarnescu to match over the course of a couple of hours.
Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: Ashleigh Barty has been a real success since returning to professional tennis and she has looked very comfortable on the clay courts over the last couple of months. Not many players will want to run into Barty at the French Open after close losses to Caroline Wozniacki and Maria Sharapova and those can be reversed in the form she has displayed.
Barty has really leant on her serve which is an underrated shot and she has a very strong return which is going to put some pressure on Anastasia Pavlychenkova when they meet in the Semi Final on Friday.
The Russian has been in good form this week herself, but the underlying numbers are not nearly as strong as the ones Barty has put on the board.
Pavlyuchenkova has a very good serve of her own which can produce plenty of cheap points, but her second serve is attackable. She also can struggle with her movement and I think Barty is the better defender of the two players which can be a key factor on the clay courts.
There is also a significant difference in the way the two players have returned and the success they have had on that side of the court. Barty looks to have a real edge in that department and I think the Australian will beat Pavlyuchenkova and be able to cover a big number in this second Semi Final in Strasbourg.
MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Steve Johnson @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 1.70 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
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Friday, 26 May 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (May 26th)
I arrived back in London late on Thursday night and was understandably exhausted so there were no tennis picks written out on Friday.
I did research the Semi Final matches being played in the four tournaments this week and I am going to just place them in the 'MY PICKS' section below.
Friday is also the day the French Open draw will come out and that is going to be interesting to breakdown, especially the women's draw which looks absolutely wide open.
MY PICKS: Milos Raonic - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia @ 2.15 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
I did research the Semi Final matches being played in the four tournaments this week and I am going to just place them in the 'MY PICKS' section below.
Friday is also the day the French Open draw will come out and that is going to be interesting to breakdown, especially the women's draw which looks absolutely wide open.
MY PICKS: Milos Raonic - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia @ 2.15 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Wednesday, 24 May 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (May 24th)
There won't be any tennis picks on Thursday as I will be away for the Europa League Final until late Thursday evening, but I will look through the schedule for Friday and see if anything stands out.
So far this week there haven't been too many picks as I have not seen a lot of options, but Wednesday looks to be a busier day with the majority of tournaments looking to get their Second Round matches completed so the events can be concluded on Saturday.
The draw for the French Open main draw will also be made on Friday and we should have the schedule of play for Sunday released on Saturday when the outright picks and Day 1 Picks should be ready to go.
Before that I will have a thread for the FA Cup Final and the big boxing night at Bramall Lane where Kell Brook defends his World Welterweight Title against Errol Spence Jr in what looks a cracking fight.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: Going into the clay court season, Albert Ramos-Vinolas may have been one of those players people would have picked for a really strong showing. He did reach the Final at the Monte Carlo Masters, but there have been some disappointing early losses too and the Spaniard is going to have to defend a lot of points in Paris next week.
Back to back losses to Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and John Isner would have been matches that Ramos-Vinolas may have expected to win. That has got to have knocked some confidence and there is no doubting the danger that Andrey Kuznetsov brings to the court in this one.
The Russian has talent and has previously enjoyed his time in Geneva with some solid wins behind him. Kuznetsov came from a set down to beat Thomaz Bellucci in the First Round although he has been inconsistent on the clay courts at this level in his career.
There are times Kuznetsov is picking all the right shots and he can be very tough to break with the way he approaches the match. That will give Ramos-Vinolas something to think about, but I do think the Spaniard is the better clay court player and I would expect him to showcase that over the course of the match.
It might need three sets to determine the winner, but I am looking for Ramos-Vinolas to come through with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 kind of win in a topsy-turvy Second Round encounter.
Qiang Wang - 1.5 games v Shelby Rogers: There might be something that I don't know about how Qiang Wang is feeling, but I would have her as a much bigger favourite to win this match than the layers have in this Second Round encounter. Wang has been playing really well over the last few weeks and I think Shelby Rogers might be over-rated for a win over Caroline Wozniacki who had to retire in the second set of their match.
Rogers did play well at the French Open last season but she hasn't had a lot of matches under belt thanks to injury and early losses in a number of tournaments in preparation for Roland Garros this year.
The American is capable on the clay courts with the added time allowing her to power past opponents but I think she is not playing with the consistency or had enough matches for the rhythm that will be needed to beat Wang.
Wang is 9-3 on the clay courts this year, although a few of those have been on the Qualifiers, and that comes at the end of a title win in Zhengzhou on the hard courts which have clearly given her more belief. I think that carries over here and she can beat Rogers in two tight sets which will be enough to cover this number.
Oceane Dodin - 2.5 games v Misaki Doi: There is a lot to like about Oceane Dodin's game and the young Frenchwoman has the chance to put together a strong week in Nuremberg in preparation for the French Open next week. Some inconsistencies still come through, but Dodin is able to hit the ball very hard through the clay courts and can have the patience to win this match.
She will need to be patient against Misaki Doi who is a solid enough defensive player that will look for the mistakes to be made against her. However her lack of real punch off the ground does mean that opponents are able to get the upper hand in rallies and staying in the match from a mental point of view is the key for Dodin in this one.
If she starts getting frustrated with the Doi defences, it is going to lead to more and more unforced errors and that is a surefire way to lose a match. However, Dodin will have the edge in the rallies with the chances she will have the first strike more often than not and her confidence can improve if she is able to restrict those mistakes and ultimately win the points.
It is a match up of contrasting styles, but one where I think the power and aggression of Dodin can see her get the better of Doi in the Second Round. Dodin should be able to get her teeth into the Doi service games and that can lead to a 6-4, 6-4 kind of win for the younger player and a place in the Quarter Final on Thursday.
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Hyeon Chung: There is no doubting that Tomas Berdych is not the player he once was, but he is still a solid enough clay court player to win matches like this. When Berdych has been beaten, he has tended to be beaten fairly comfortably over the last few weeks on the clay courts, but he does have a 6-3 record on the surface.
Only one of his losses might be looked at as one he shouldn't have taken and Berdych would have covered this number of games in all six wins on the clay since April.
Hyeon Chung has to be respected as he has won three matches here in Lyon and this is the first match that Berdych will be playing. The win over Alexander Zverev in Barcelona looks a very good one for the youngster who has yet to really find the consistency to be playing in the biggest events on the Tour having missed out in Madrid and Rome.
Chung also had a strong run in Munich in his last tournament so you can see why the layers don't want to give too much away on the handicap in this one. The wins have been solid enough over the last couple of months, but I think Berdych has been beating those players he should be some comfort and I can see him doing the same on Wednesday.
It won't be easy for Berdych who has to play close to his best level to see off Chung in the Second Round. However I think he can do that in a 7-6, 6-4 win here in Lyon and I will back him to cover the games.
MY PICKS: Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Qiang Wang - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Oceane Dodin - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)
So far this week there haven't been too many picks as I have not seen a lot of options, but Wednesday looks to be a busier day with the majority of tournaments looking to get their Second Round matches completed so the events can be concluded on Saturday.
The draw for the French Open main draw will also be made on Friday and we should have the schedule of play for Sunday released on Saturday when the outright picks and Day 1 Picks should be ready to go.
Before that I will have a thread for the FA Cup Final and the big boxing night at Bramall Lane where Kell Brook defends his World Welterweight Title against Errol Spence Jr in what looks a cracking fight.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: Going into the clay court season, Albert Ramos-Vinolas may have been one of those players people would have picked for a really strong showing. He did reach the Final at the Monte Carlo Masters, but there have been some disappointing early losses too and the Spaniard is going to have to defend a lot of points in Paris next week.
Back to back losses to Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and John Isner would have been matches that Ramos-Vinolas may have expected to win. That has got to have knocked some confidence and there is no doubting the danger that Andrey Kuznetsov brings to the court in this one.
The Russian has talent and has previously enjoyed his time in Geneva with some solid wins behind him. Kuznetsov came from a set down to beat Thomaz Bellucci in the First Round although he has been inconsistent on the clay courts at this level in his career.
There are times Kuznetsov is picking all the right shots and he can be very tough to break with the way he approaches the match. That will give Ramos-Vinolas something to think about, but I do think the Spaniard is the better clay court player and I would expect him to showcase that over the course of the match.
It might need three sets to determine the winner, but I am looking for Ramos-Vinolas to come through with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 kind of win in a topsy-turvy Second Round encounter.
Qiang Wang - 1.5 games v Shelby Rogers: There might be something that I don't know about how Qiang Wang is feeling, but I would have her as a much bigger favourite to win this match than the layers have in this Second Round encounter. Wang has been playing really well over the last few weeks and I think Shelby Rogers might be over-rated for a win over Caroline Wozniacki who had to retire in the second set of their match.
Rogers did play well at the French Open last season but she hasn't had a lot of matches under belt thanks to injury and early losses in a number of tournaments in preparation for Roland Garros this year.
The American is capable on the clay courts with the added time allowing her to power past opponents but I think she is not playing with the consistency or had enough matches for the rhythm that will be needed to beat Wang.
Wang is 9-3 on the clay courts this year, although a few of those have been on the Qualifiers, and that comes at the end of a title win in Zhengzhou on the hard courts which have clearly given her more belief. I think that carries over here and she can beat Rogers in two tight sets which will be enough to cover this number.
Oceane Dodin - 2.5 games v Misaki Doi: There is a lot to like about Oceane Dodin's game and the young Frenchwoman has the chance to put together a strong week in Nuremberg in preparation for the French Open next week. Some inconsistencies still come through, but Dodin is able to hit the ball very hard through the clay courts and can have the patience to win this match.
She will need to be patient against Misaki Doi who is a solid enough defensive player that will look for the mistakes to be made against her. However her lack of real punch off the ground does mean that opponents are able to get the upper hand in rallies and staying in the match from a mental point of view is the key for Dodin in this one.
If she starts getting frustrated with the Doi defences, it is going to lead to more and more unforced errors and that is a surefire way to lose a match. However, Dodin will have the edge in the rallies with the chances she will have the first strike more often than not and her confidence can improve if she is able to restrict those mistakes and ultimately win the points.
It is a match up of contrasting styles, but one where I think the power and aggression of Dodin can see her get the better of Doi in the Second Round. Dodin should be able to get her teeth into the Doi service games and that can lead to a 6-4, 6-4 kind of win for the younger player and a place in the Quarter Final on Thursday.
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Hyeon Chung: There is no doubting that Tomas Berdych is not the player he once was, but he is still a solid enough clay court player to win matches like this. When Berdych has been beaten, he has tended to be beaten fairly comfortably over the last few weeks on the clay courts, but he does have a 6-3 record on the surface.
Only one of his losses might be looked at as one he shouldn't have taken and Berdych would have covered this number of games in all six wins on the clay since April.
Hyeon Chung has to be respected as he has won three matches here in Lyon and this is the first match that Berdych will be playing. The win over Alexander Zverev in Barcelona looks a very good one for the youngster who has yet to really find the consistency to be playing in the biggest events on the Tour having missed out in Madrid and Rome.
Chung also had a strong run in Munich in his last tournament so you can see why the layers don't want to give too much away on the handicap in this one. The wins have been solid enough over the last couple of months, but I think Berdych has been beating those players he should be some comfort and I can see him doing the same on Wednesday.
It won't be easy for Berdych who has to play close to his best level to see off Chung in the Second Round. However I think he can do that in a 7-6, 6-4 win here in Lyon and I will back him to cover the games.
MY PICKS: Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Qiang Wang - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Oceane Dodin - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)
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Thursday, 21 May 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (May 21st)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: Marin Cilic had to dig down much deeper than he would have imagined to see off young star Andrey Rublev in the Second Round, but the more playing time he gets, the better for the US Open Champion. After a long lay-off through injury, it will take some time for Cilic to get back to his very best, although he is one of the better grass court players in the world and should enjoy the extended season on that surface.
First of all Cilic is trying to get himself into some form to take into the French Open as he looks to make an impact at the second Grand Slam of the season after missing the Australian Open. Cilic's win over Rublev should set him up for a solid week in Geneva ahead of the tournament in Paris, but backing it up won't be easy against Santiago Giraldo.
It has not been the best clay court season for the Colombian, although his two wins in Geneva will have helped Giraldo get back on track. However, he has a bad match up against Cilic whose aggression on return has put the pressure on Giraldo in their four previous matches which have all been won by the Croatian.
There have been signs of Cilic getting back to that aggressive return game which helped him win the US Open last September, but consistency will be an issue for him for a while because of that lay off. However, I think his ability on the court and what he wants to do matches up well with Giraldo and I can see Cilic finding his way into the Semi Final with a 64, 64 win behind him.
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Federico Delbonis: Stan Wawrinka hasn't quite made it onto my blacklist despite some poor recent performances of late as he looks to change his form on the court after some off-court issues have been affecting his personal life. Those issues have seen Wawrinka have troubles finding the consistency to string some wins together, but playing back in Switzerland should help as should the fact that he is meeting an opponent who hasn't been pulling up any trees himself.
You have to respect any player that has won back to back matches to reach the Quarter Final, although the level of competition goes up a couple of level for Federico Delbonis in this match. The Argentinian has been a little inconsistent in recent weeks, but he did win a Challenger tournament and Delbonis is much more comfortable on the clay courts than the other surfaces.
That will make Delbonis a dangerous Quarter Final opponent for the home favourite, but he has struggled at the highest level this season and will offer Wawrinka chances to break serve and come through.
I can see match with breaks both ways on current form, but one that Wawrinka eventually takes control of as he come through 75, 64.
Juan Monaco - 2.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: Two Argentinian players who are most comfortable on the clay courts meet in a Quarter Final in Nice with the winner in a very strong position to go all the way and win the title. Leonardo Mayer might be the Number 1 Argentinian player on the ATP Tour at this moment in time, but I think Juan Monaco is producing more positive results and can win the battle between them.
I do think Mayer has the stronger serve, but I would favour Monaco to be able to dictate the rallies from the baseline and eventually he should have the chances to break serve and control the match. There are times when Monaco seems to feel the pressure when ahead, which would be a concern against a quality player like Mayer, but the former has been winning more matches of late which should help him through the tough moments.
There will be some long rallies and some gruelling moments for both, while I also expect there to be chances to break serve for both Monaco and Mayer.
However, I think Monaco will eventually find more winning rallies as he breaks down the Mayer game and I think the former can frank the form that saw him beat Mayer in Buenos Aires earlier this season.
Borna Coric - 3.5 games v James Duckworth: There are a couple of really big talents coming through the ranks and one of those is Borna Coric who is looking to reach his first Semi Final since Dubai in February. That isn't to say that Coric hasn't been playing well, but that simply he is like many other young players who struggle for consistency.
This is the kind of tournament where someone like Coric can make hay as many of the top names are already preparing for the French Open and it is no surprise that he is the favourite to see off James Duckworth in this Quarter Final.
It is a surprise to see Duckworth reach the Quarter Final, but he has taken advantage of Gilles Simon's withdrawal at the top of the draw and his two wins this week are not really up to the level of main ATP Tour events. That fortune has helped the Australian and Duckworth has spent the majority of his time playing at Challenger level on the clay courts with his game much more suited to the fast surfaces.
While Duckworth can serve well at times, he is going to have to be very strong from the baseline if he is going to secure the upset. I would give Coric a real edge when it comes to the extended rallies that tend to develop on a clay court and I think the youngster comes through 64, 64 to move into the Semi Final.
Jelena Jankovic - 1.5 games v Sloane Stephens: She might not be at the same level as when she managed to reach World Number 1, but Jelena Jankovic is still capable of very strong showings and I like her chances against Sloane Stephens on a clay court. The biggest question mark about Jankovic is whether she is over the issues that has seen her miss the majority of the clay court season, although her performance in Rome and winning two matches here have erased any doubts.
With the way that Sloane Stephens can play, this is far from an easy match for Jankovic even if I do think the latter is the stronger player on the clay courts.
Jankovic has also found a way to diffuse the Stephens power and extract enough errors to win all three previous matches between these players, although none of those have come on the clay. Stephens has done well to come through her two matches here too, but this is her worst surface and Jankovic is the better mover on it.
That can be a key in the extended rallies as the better mover is more likely to be in a more effective position to turn the tables and I think Jankovic is playing well enough to do that. This might need three sets to separate the two players, but I like Jankovic to find a 76, 46, 63 win to move into the Semi Final.
Elena Vesnina - 3.5 games v Virginie Razzano: Both of these players came through Second Round matches impressively as the underdogs and now have a real chance to pick up some vital Ranking points. Elena Vesnina is Number 95 in the World Rankings and Virginie Razzano is Number 251 which only highlights how important the points they can earn are this week with big names not taking part in the draw.
Vesnina displayed all of her power to knock Alize Cornet off of her game and come through in three sets on Wednesday which means she has now won 4 of her last 5 matches to improve confidence. Virginie Razzano was an impressive winner over Francesca Schiavone, but she has mainly been playing at a lower level to try and rebuild her career and I think that is going to be an issue in this match.
Razzano has really not been competing with so much on the line in recent weeks and I think that can play a part mentally as the Frenchwoman tries to get back up the World Rankings. She has gone through some real hardship off the court which will have made her a stronger character, but Razzano could be pushed back by the power of Vesnina if the latter is on her game.
That power might be enough to help push Vesnina onto the baseline and dictate this match, although she has to avoid the unforced errors that blighted her in the first set against Cornet yesterday. If she can do that, I believe she can get the better of Razzano in a 64, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elena Vesnina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-3, + 4.36 Units (18 Units Staked, + 24.22% Yield)
First of all Cilic is trying to get himself into some form to take into the French Open as he looks to make an impact at the second Grand Slam of the season after missing the Australian Open. Cilic's win over Rublev should set him up for a solid week in Geneva ahead of the tournament in Paris, but backing it up won't be easy against Santiago Giraldo.
It has not been the best clay court season for the Colombian, although his two wins in Geneva will have helped Giraldo get back on track. However, he has a bad match up against Cilic whose aggression on return has put the pressure on Giraldo in their four previous matches which have all been won by the Croatian.
There have been signs of Cilic getting back to that aggressive return game which helped him win the US Open last September, but consistency will be an issue for him for a while because of that lay off. However, I think his ability on the court and what he wants to do matches up well with Giraldo and I can see Cilic finding his way into the Semi Final with a 64, 64 win behind him.
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Federico Delbonis: Stan Wawrinka hasn't quite made it onto my blacklist despite some poor recent performances of late as he looks to change his form on the court after some off-court issues have been affecting his personal life. Those issues have seen Wawrinka have troubles finding the consistency to string some wins together, but playing back in Switzerland should help as should the fact that he is meeting an opponent who hasn't been pulling up any trees himself.
You have to respect any player that has won back to back matches to reach the Quarter Final, although the level of competition goes up a couple of level for Federico Delbonis in this match. The Argentinian has been a little inconsistent in recent weeks, but he did win a Challenger tournament and Delbonis is much more comfortable on the clay courts than the other surfaces.
That will make Delbonis a dangerous Quarter Final opponent for the home favourite, but he has struggled at the highest level this season and will offer Wawrinka chances to break serve and come through.
I can see match with breaks both ways on current form, but one that Wawrinka eventually takes control of as he come through 75, 64.
Juan Monaco - 2.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: Two Argentinian players who are most comfortable on the clay courts meet in a Quarter Final in Nice with the winner in a very strong position to go all the way and win the title. Leonardo Mayer might be the Number 1 Argentinian player on the ATP Tour at this moment in time, but I think Juan Monaco is producing more positive results and can win the battle between them.
I do think Mayer has the stronger serve, but I would favour Monaco to be able to dictate the rallies from the baseline and eventually he should have the chances to break serve and control the match. There are times when Monaco seems to feel the pressure when ahead, which would be a concern against a quality player like Mayer, but the former has been winning more matches of late which should help him through the tough moments.
There will be some long rallies and some gruelling moments for both, while I also expect there to be chances to break serve for both Monaco and Mayer.
However, I think Monaco will eventually find more winning rallies as he breaks down the Mayer game and I think the former can frank the form that saw him beat Mayer in Buenos Aires earlier this season.
Borna Coric - 3.5 games v James Duckworth: There are a couple of really big talents coming through the ranks and one of those is Borna Coric who is looking to reach his first Semi Final since Dubai in February. That isn't to say that Coric hasn't been playing well, but that simply he is like many other young players who struggle for consistency.
This is the kind of tournament where someone like Coric can make hay as many of the top names are already preparing for the French Open and it is no surprise that he is the favourite to see off James Duckworth in this Quarter Final.
It is a surprise to see Duckworth reach the Quarter Final, but he has taken advantage of Gilles Simon's withdrawal at the top of the draw and his two wins this week are not really up to the level of main ATP Tour events. That fortune has helped the Australian and Duckworth has spent the majority of his time playing at Challenger level on the clay courts with his game much more suited to the fast surfaces.
While Duckworth can serve well at times, he is going to have to be very strong from the baseline if he is going to secure the upset. I would give Coric a real edge when it comes to the extended rallies that tend to develop on a clay court and I think the youngster comes through 64, 64 to move into the Semi Final.
Jelena Jankovic - 1.5 games v Sloane Stephens: She might not be at the same level as when she managed to reach World Number 1, but Jelena Jankovic is still capable of very strong showings and I like her chances against Sloane Stephens on a clay court. The biggest question mark about Jankovic is whether she is over the issues that has seen her miss the majority of the clay court season, although her performance in Rome and winning two matches here have erased any doubts.
With the way that Sloane Stephens can play, this is far from an easy match for Jankovic even if I do think the latter is the stronger player on the clay courts.
Jankovic has also found a way to diffuse the Stephens power and extract enough errors to win all three previous matches between these players, although none of those have come on the clay. Stephens has done well to come through her two matches here too, but this is her worst surface and Jankovic is the better mover on it.
That can be a key in the extended rallies as the better mover is more likely to be in a more effective position to turn the tables and I think Jankovic is playing well enough to do that. This might need three sets to separate the two players, but I like Jankovic to find a 76, 46, 63 win to move into the Semi Final.
Elena Vesnina - 3.5 games v Virginie Razzano: Both of these players came through Second Round matches impressively as the underdogs and now have a real chance to pick up some vital Ranking points. Elena Vesnina is Number 95 in the World Rankings and Virginie Razzano is Number 251 which only highlights how important the points they can earn are this week with big names not taking part in the draw.
Vesnina displayed all of her power to knock Alize Cornet off of her game and come through in three sets on Wednesday which means she has now won 4 of her last 5 matches to improve confidence. Virginie Razzano was an impressive winner over Francesca Schiavone, but she has mainly been playing at a lower level to try and rebuild her career and I think that is going to be an issue in this match.
Razzano has really not been competing with so much on the line in recent weeks and I think that can play a part mentally as the Frenchwoman tries to get back up the World Rankings. She has gone through some real hardship off the court which will have made her a stronger character, but Razzano could be pushed back by the power of Vesnina if the latter is on her game.
That power might be enough to help push Vesnina onto the baseline and dictate this match, although she has to avoid the unforced errors that blighted her in the first set against Cornet yesterday. If she can do that, I believe she can get the better of Razzano in a 64, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elena Vesnina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-3, + 4.36 Units (18 Units Staked, + 24.22% Yield)
Wednesday, 20 May 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (May 20th)
Wednesday is a very busy day across the tournaments being played this week with all of them looking to get the results in the bag by Saturday as the French Open will begin on Sunday. That means all the Quarter Finals will be played on Thursday, Semi Finals on Friday and Finals on Saturday which means the tournaments are looking to get on schedule on Wednesday.
There might be a lot of tennis to be played on Wednesday, but that doesn't always mean there will be a lot of picks- with the French Open less than a week away, my focus is also on that event and wondering what kind of motivation some of the players will have left this week, while I am not going to make picks just for the sake of it.
As always, I have to feel 100% confident in the pick and anything less is simply not worth the hassle of picking with the next Grand Slam on deck.
Nick Kyrgios v Dominic Thiem: Two young guns that could be competing at the top of the men's game for years to come meet for the first time on the professional Tour in this Second Round match in Nice. Nick Kyrgios had to battle his way through in the First Round against Mikhail Kukushkin, especially after a really tight first set that was decided on a tie-breaker, but his serve will always give him a chance in matches like that even when not at his best.
The Australian will have to be better against Dominic Thiem who was an impressive winner in the First Round and had a good week in Rome last week. However, Thiem has the same problem that many young players do in trying to find the consistency from week to week and I also think his serve can be erratic and will give Kyrgios a chance in this match.
While I think Thiem can hang with Kyrgios from the back of the court and is probably the better player off the ground at this stage of their careers, the serve can make a big difference with Kyrgios likely to be able to set up some short balls and unreturnable serves.
While Thiem will have some success on serve, he can make mistakes at times that Kyrgios can jump on and find his way to a three set victory, possibly having the match decided on a tie-breaker.
Joao Sousa - 2.5 games v Jurgen Melzer: I respect the heart with what Joao Sousa plays, but his game is one that can be attacked by the best players on the Tour and has been a big reason he has been losing as many matches as he has through the last twelve months.
However, the clay courts should give him a real chance to beat the veteran Jurgen Melzer who had an impressive First Round win, but is clearly in the last paces of his career. Melzer was a solid player that could give the best players a hard time when he was on his game, but he has been doing a lot of losing on the Singles Tour as the veteran has begun to wind down.
Melzer has lost to players that are not quite as good as Joao Sousa, although it has to be said that the latter has to play at a high level to avoid the upset in this one.
The Melzer serve used to be a real weapon and if that is firing, it is going to be an issue for Sousa to deal with, but it has been a long time since the Austrian has won back to back matches on the Singles Tour and I think Sousa comes through 76, 64.
Alize Cornet - 3.5 games v Elena Vesnina: It has been an inconsistent clay court season for Alize Cornet who has beaten the likes of Simona Halep, but also lost to someone like Denisa Allertova during this portion of the season. The Frenchwoman also had a disappointing Roland Garros last season so it could be a morale boosting week for Cornet if she can go deep into the Strasbourg draw.
That won't be straight-forward against Elena Vesnina, although her best success has been on the Doubles Tour this season. Vesnina has also struggled on the Singles Tour on the clay court but her defeats have been less impressive than the majority of Cornet's and she simply hasn't beaten someone of the calibre of Halep.
Cornet has also dominated the head to head between these two as her athleticism around the court has forced mistakes from the Vesnina game as she is forced to hit closer and closer to the lines. The clay courts are not the favourite surface of either of these players, but Cornet should have the movement to at least force Vesnina to hit one more ball than she may like.
As I have said, this is going to be far from an easy match for Cornet, but she should still find enough in her game to come through with a 64, 64 win and a place in the Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-2, + 4.70 Units (14 Units Staked, + 33.57% Yield)
There might be a lot of tennis to be played on Wednesday, but that doesn't always mean there will be a lot of picks- with the French Open less than a week away, my focus is also on that event and wondering what kind of motivation some of the players will have left this week, while I am not going to make picks just for the sake of it.
As always, I have to feel 100% confident in the pick and anything less is simply not worth the hassle of picking with the next Grand Slam on deck.
Nick Kyrgios v Dominic Thiem: Two young guns that could be competing at the top of the men's game for years to come meet for the first time on the professional Tour in this Second Round match in Nice. Nick Kyrgios had to battle his way through in the First Round against Mikhail Kukushkin, especially after a really tight first set that was decided on a tie-breaker, but his serve will always give him a chance in matches like that even when not at his best.
The Australian will have to be better against Dominic Thiem who was an impressive winner in the First Round and had a good week in Rome last week. However, Thiem has the same problem that many young players do in trying to find the consistency from week to week and I also think his serve can be erratic and will give Kyrgios a chance in this match.
While I think Thiem can hang with Kyrgios from the back of the court and is probably the better player off the ground at this stage of their careers, the serve can make a big difference with Kyrgios likely to be able to set up some short balls and unreturnable serves.
While Thiem will have some success on serve, he can make mistakes at times that Kyrgios can jump on and find his way to a three set victory, possibly having the match decided on a tie-breaker.
Joao Sousa - 2.5 games v Jurgen Melzer: I respect the heart with what Joao Sousa plays, but his game is one that can be attacked by the best players on the Tour and has been a big reason he has been losing as many matches as he has through the last twelve months.
However, the clay courts should give him a real chance to beat the veteran Jurgen Melzer who had an impressive First Round win, but is clearly in the last paces of his career. Melzer was a solid player that could give the best players a hard time when he was on his game, but he has been doing a lot of losing on the Singles Tour as the veteran has begun to wind down.
Melzer has lost to players that are not quite as good as Joao Sousa, although it has to be said that the latter has to play at a high level to avoid the upset in this one.
The Melzer serve used to be a real weapon and if that is firing, it is going to be an issue for Sousa to deal with, but it has been a long time since the Austrian has won back to back matches on the Singles Tour and I think Sousa comes through 76, 64.
Alize Cornet - 3.5 games v Elena Vesnina: It has been an inconsistent clay court season for Alize Cornet who has beaten the likes of Simona Halep, but also lost to someone like Denisa Allertova during this portion of the season. The Frenchwoman also had a disappointing Roland Garros last season so it could be a morale boosting week for Cornet if she can go deep into the Strasbourg draw.
That won't be straight-forward against Elena Vesnina, although her best success has been on the Doubles Tour this season. Vesnina has also struggled on the Singles Tour on the clay court but her defeats have been less impressive than the majority of Cornet's and she simply hasn't beaten someone of the calibre of Halep.
Cornet has also dominated the head to head between these two as her athleticism around the court has forced mistakes from the Vesnina game as she is forced to hit closer and closer to the lines. The clay courts are not the favourite surface of either of these players, but Cornet should have the movement to at least force Vesnina to hit one more ball than she may like.
As I have said, this is going to be far from an easy match for Cornet, but she should still find enough in her game to come through with a 64, 64 win and a place in the Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-2, + 4.70 Units (14 Units Staked, + 33.57% Yield)
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Tuesday, 19 May 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (May 19th)
You have to be careful this week not to fall into a trap of backing a player that might have to head to Paris early for the qualifying ahead of the French Open. It will be less of a concern as the week goes on with the majority of those players likely to be out of events, but it proved to be a real issue on Monday at some of the tournaments being played.
I always wonder why players who know they need to head off early are allowed to be entered into tournaments this week as you know they are going to tank away a match at some point to prepare for that qualification coming up. That just seems really strange to me and something tournaments and the Tour have to work on together to prevent happening too often.
Janko Tipsarevic - 2.5 games v Denis Istomin: It hasn't been the most consistent return to the Tour for Janko Tipsarevic, but that has to be expected for a player that hadn't played a tournament in eighteen months.
Tipsarevic can't look back at his career with disappointment as he really did get the best out of his ability, but he clearly has made a return because he feels there is some unfinished business for him. And you can look at his return with some positives that he has won matches on his return and none of his losses has seen him outplayed to such an extent as to knock his confidence.
If Tipsarevic can bring that confidence to Geneva, I would fancy his chances to beat Denis Istomin who has slipped down the World Rankings and who has been struggling for some time on the court. The clay season has almost gone by with a lot of losses for Istomin, although I do think his game has to be respected as he has plenty of talent at his disposal.
However, Istomin's confidence has to be in a poor place and he is always liable to throw in a terrible service game or two and that might give Tipsarevic the chance to come through with a narrow 75, 64 win.
Marin Cilic - 4.5 games v Andrey Rublev: He had been awarded a Wild Card into the French Open Qualifiers this year having won the Junior title last season, but Andrey Rublev doesn't seem to have taken that. That is a surprise to me considering how much he has been playing on the main Tour and the young Russian has all the makings of someone who is going to be amongst the next generation at the top of the men's game.
He has already won a fair few First Round matches on the main Tour, including beating Jarkko Nieminen in the First Round here, while Rublev's best win has come against Fernando Verdasco in Barcelona last month.
Rublev has some power off the ground and is growing into his body, but it will be a big ask to beat the reigning US Open Champion even if Marin Cilic has been struggling to get back into the groove since his injury lay off.
Cilic has had some disappointing losses over the last few weeks and has lost 4 of his last 5 matches, but those have come at a high level for the most part and Rublev will be under pressure by the aggressive return of serve Cilic employs. It won't be easy for Cilic simply as he tries to work out what Rublev is going to bring to the court, but I think Cilic is good enough to still find a way to find a break of serve more in each set and come through 63, 75.
Nick Kyrgios - 3.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: He is the kind of character that tennis will love to have amongst their ranks as Nick Kyrgios will likely bring in a lot of attention for casual viewers as long as he continues progressing at his current rate. I am not convinced Kyrgios will ever become a serial winner on the Tour, but his serve will give him a chance for plenty of upset wins as shown already in his young career as he has wins over the likes of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer.
The clay courts would have been expected to be Kyrgios' worst surface, but he has reached the Final in Estoril and has beaten Federer on it this season. That kind of form gives him a great chance to beat Mikhail Kukushkin who has generally struggled on clay through his career and doesn't have much form coming into this tournament.
There is no doubting the talent that Kukushkin has, but he can be so erratic with his play and can't afford to do that against a player that serves as big as Kyrgios.
As long as Kyrgios remains focused and not look ahead to the French Open, where he will be Seeded, I think the Australian has enough in his game to come through with a 63, 76 win.
Juan Monaco - 3.5 games v Sam Querrey: The American players generally are not big fans of the European clay courts and Sam Querrey is no different as he takes in a stop in Nice ahead of the French Open. Querrey has lost early in Madrid and Rome and must be looking forward to the extended grass court season before returning home for the North American hard court swing leading into the US Open.
Those faster surfaces suit Querrey as his serve really can carry him through matches, while his movement is less of an issue with rallies generally being shorter. However, on the clay those issues are exposed and someone like Juan Monaco has all the experience to find the holes in the Querrey game to move into the Quarter Final.
It has been a little bit of a disappointment for Monaco on the clay courts so far as he would have expected to have picked up more wins than he has so far since the Miami Masters when he was a surprise Quarter Finalist on the hard courts. Monaco has been guilty of missing some opportunities as he has struggled to put away opponents when they looked down and out, but he should have the edge in any of the rallies that get into five shots or more territory.
Both were impressive First Round winners, but the extra clay court nous that Monaco has should help him come through with a 64, 64 win as long as Querrey doesn't serve extra-big in this one.
MY PICKS: Janko Tipsarevic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-0, + 5.06 Units (6 Units Staked, + 84.33% Yield)
I always wonder why players who know they need to head off early are allowed to be entered into tournaments this week as you know they are going to tank away a match at some point to prepare for that qualification coming up. That just seems really strange to me and something tournaments and the Tour have to work on together to prevent happening too often.
Janko Tipsarevic - 2.5 games v Denis Istomin: It hasn't been the most consistent return to the Tour for Janko Tipsarevic, but that has to be expected for a player that hadn't played a tournament in eighteen months.
Tipsarevic can't look back at his career with disappointment as he really did get the best out of his ability, but he clearly has made a return because he feels there is some unfinished business for him. And you can look at his return with some positives that he has won matches on his return and none of his losses has seen him outplayed to such an extent as to knock his confidence.
If Tipsarevic can bring that confidence to Geneva, I would fancy his chances to beat Denis Istomin who has slipped down the World Rankings and who has been struggling for some time on the court. The clay season has almost gone by with a lot of losses for Istomin, although I do think his game has to be respected as he has plenty of talent at his disposal.
However, Istomin's confidence has to be in a poor place and he is always liable to throw in a terrible service game or two and that might give Tipsarevic the chance to come through with a narrow 75, 64 win.
Marin Cilic - 4.5 games v Andrey Rublev: He had been awarded a Wild Card into the French Open Qualifiers this year having won the Junior title last season, but Andrey Rublev doesn't seem to have taken that. That is a surprise to me considering how much he has been playing on the main Tour and the young Russian has all the makings of someone who is going to be amongst the next generation at the top of the men's game.
He has already won a fair few First Round matches on the main Tour, including beating Jarkko Nieminen in the First Round here, while Rublev's best win has come against Fernando Verdasco in Barcelona last month.
Rublev has some power off the ground and is growing into his body, but it will be a big ask to beat the reigning US Open Champion even if Marin Cilic has been struggling to get back into the groove since his injury lay off.
Cilic has had some disappointing losses over the last few weeks and has lost 4 of his last 5 matches, but those have come at a high level for the most part and Rublev will be under pressure by the aggressive return of serve Cilic employs. It won't be easy for Cilic simply as he tries to work out what Rublev is going to bring to the court, but I think Cilic is good enough to still find a way to find a break of serve more in each set and come through 63, 75.
Nick Kyrgios - 3.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: He is the kind of character that tennis will love to have amongst their ranks as Nick Kyrgios will likely bring in a lot of attention for casual viewers as long as he continues progressing at his current rate. I am not convinced Kyrgios will ever become a serial winner on the Tour, but his serve will give him a chance for plenty of upset wins as shown already in his young career as he has wins over the likes of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer.
The clay courts would have been expected to be Kyrgios' worst surface, but he has reached the Final in Estoril and has beaten Federer on it this season. That kind of form gives him a great chance to beat Mikhail Kukushkin who has generally struggled on clay through his career and doesn't have much form coming into this tournament.
There is no doubting the talent that Kukushkin has, but he can be so erratic with his play and can't afford to do that against a player that serves as big as Kyrgios.
As long as Kyrgios remains focused and not look ahead to the French Open, where he will be Seeded, I think the Australian has enough in his game to come through with a 63, 76 win.
Juan Monaco - 3.5 games v Sam Querrey: The American players generally are not big fans of the European clay courts and Sam Querrey is no different as he takes in a stop in Nice ahead of the French Open. Querrey has lost early in Madrid and Rome and must be looking forward to the extended grass court season before returning home for the North American hard court swing leading into the US Open.
Those faster surfaces suit Querrey as his serve really can carry him through matches, while his movement is less of an issue with rallies generally being shorter. However, on the clay those issues are exposed and someone like Juan Monaco has all the experience to find the holes in the Querrey game to move into the Quarter Final.
It has been a little bit of a disappointment for Monaco on the clay courts so far as he would have expected to have picked up more wins than he has so far since the Miami Masters when he was a surprise Quarter Finalist on the hard courts. Monaco has been guilty of missing some opportunities as he has struggled to put away opponents when they looked down and out, but he should have the edge in any of the rallies that get into five shots or more territory.
Both were impressive First Round winners, but the extra clay court nous that Monaco has should help him come through with a 64, 64 win as long as Querrey doesn't serve extra-big in this one.
MY PICKS: Janko Tipsarevic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Monaco - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-0, + 5.06 Units (6 Units Staked, + 84.33% Yield)
Monday, 18 May 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (May 18th)
Novak Djokovic and Maria Sharapova both won their respective tournaments in Rome to head into the French Open with momentum and both will have a well earned rest this week to get focused for the next Grand Slam of the season.
Djokovic has been in great form all season and has every chance of winning the title that he craves more than any other- he would have hardened as favourite having won the titles in Monte Carlo and Rome and Djokovic will be expected to win the title in Paris in three weeks time.
The biggest threat to Djokovic may actually be himself- can he cope with the huge expectation on his shoulders to win the title in Paris or will that hinder him at a critical moment and give one of his rivals the chance to knock him off? I'd say that is probably the biggest question going into Roland Garros next week and one I am looking forward to see how it gets answered.
The woman's draw is much more open with the likes of Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova, Petra Kvitova and Simona Halep leading the way when it comes to the expectation of the fans. However, all four of those players have to hope the draw favours them with some dangerous players like Angelique Kerber, Victoria Azarenka and Carla Suarez Navarro all capable of beating them if they are off their game and I think it could be the WTA draw which is the more intriguing.
This week is one where the majority of the big name players will be taking a week off to prepare for the Grand Slam coming up and I will be doing the same for the majority of it. However, there are some opportunities to make picks and I will take them where I see them.
It might mean that I miss a day or two during the course of the week if there is nothing I like, while this weekend the concentration will shift to the French Open which is the Grand Slam that gets things kicked off on Sunday.
Joao Sousa - 2.5 games v Joao Souza: This is going to be fun simply to hear how the umpire is going to distinguish between Joao Sousa from Portugal and Joao Souza from Brazil.
Both players will feel the clay courts are their best surfaces, but neither has had much success during the last six weeks although Sousa has at least put together a couple of wins during that time.
On the other hand, Souza has struggled to bring the form to Europe that took him into a couple of long runs during the South American Golden Swing earlier in the season. He has lost six straight matches, including a couple of early losses in the qualifiers, and his confidence has to be in a poor place heading into this tournament.
I don't feel overly comfortable backing Joao Sousa simply because he has to work so hard to hold serve, but I think he has at least put some wins together during this clay court season in Europe and is the better player of the two. As long as Sousa can pressure the Souza serve as expected, he should find a way to come through with a 63, 46, 64 win.
Madison Keys - 2.5 games v Christine McHale: Two young American players meet in the First Round this week and neither will really expect to have a big impact at the French Open despite some positive results on the clay over the last six weeks.
Madison Keys has had two early exits in Madrid and Rome since reaching the Final in Charleston, while Christine McHale reached the Quarter Final in Rome despite having a number of early losses prior to that tournament. McHale was aided by Serena Williams withdrawing from their Third Round match, but four wins in the Italian capital might give her some confidence to take into the remainder of the season.
Both of these players will feel confident in the conditions in Strasbourg having both reached the Semi Final here last season, but both Keys and McHale will be hoping another strong week isn't followed by a First Round exit in Paris.
I like Keys in the match because I think her extra power and ability on the serve will just set things up a little easier for her. Keys can be inconsistent off the ground at times, but she should have enough in her game to force McHale backwards and that should give her the edge in the match and help Keys win this one 64, 64.
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games v Monica Puig: Monica Puig hasn't been in the best form coming into Strasbourg, but it was a similar story for her twelve months ago before she went on to win the title here. It is going to be a difficult task for Puig to defend her title with a very tough First Round match against Sam Stosur and I favour the latter to come through the match.
Ut has been a disappointing clay court season for Stosur too coming into this event as she looks to pick up some form for the remainder of the 2015 season. The Australian has a strong serve, but has failed to back it up effectively from the ground and that has just worn her out at times.
Stosur's losses have come at a higher level than Puig's and I think she has been close in a couple of losses which suggests she isn't so far away from having a decent run somewhere. The winner of this match may feel they can go all the way, but I think Stosur's serve will give her the slight edge in both sets.
Being back in Strasbourg should inspire the defending Champion Puig, but I think Stosur finds a chink in her armour a couple more times than the other way round which leads to a 64, 64 win for the Australian.
MY PICKS: Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rome Final: 11-12, - 4.30 Units (46 Units Staked, - 9.35% Yield)
Season 2015: + 41.99 Units (653 Units Staked, + 6.43% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Djokovic has been in great form all season and has every chance of winning the title that he craves more than any other- he would have hardened as favourite having won the titles in Monte Carlo and Rome and Djokovic will be expected to win the title in Paris in three weeks time.
The biggest threat to Djokovic may actually be himself- can he cope with the huge expectation on his shoulders to win the title in Paris or will that hinder him at a critical moment and give one of his rivals the chance to knock him off? I'd say that is probably the biggest question going into Roland Garros next week and one I am looking forward to see how it gets answered.
The woman's draw is much more open with the likes of Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova, Petra Kvitova and Simona Halep leading the way when it comes to the expectation of the fans. However, all four of those players have to hope the draw favours them with some dangerous players like Angelique Kerber, Victoria Azarenka and Carla Suarez Navarro all capable of beating them if they are off their game and I think it could be the WTA draw which is the more intriguing.
This week is one where the majority of the big name players will be taking a week off to prepare for the Grand Slam coming up and I will be doing the same for the majority of it. However, there are some opportunities to make picks and I will take them where I see them.
It might mean that I miss a day or two during the course of the week if there is nothing I like, while this weekend the concentration will shift to the French Open which is the Grand Slam that gets things kicked off on Sunday.
Joao Sousa - 2.5 games v Joao Souza: This is going to be fun simply to hear how the umpire is going to distinguish between Joao Sousa from Portugal and Joao Souza from Brazil.
Both players will feel the clay courts are their best surfaces, but neither has had much success during the last six weeks although Sousa has at least put together a couple of wins during that time.
On the other hand, Souza has struggled to bring the form to Europe that took him into a couple of long runs during the South American Golden Swing earlier in the season. He has lost six straight matches, including a couple of early losses in the qualifiers, and his confidence has to be in a poor place heading into this tournament.
I don't feel overly comfortable backing Joao Sousa simply because he has to work so hard to hold serve, but I think he has at least put some wins together during this clay court season in Europe and is the better player of the two. As long as Sousa can pressure the Souza serve as expected, he should find a way to come through with a 63, 46, 64 win.
Madison Keys - 2.5 games v Christine McHale: Two young American players meet in the First Round this week and neither will really expect to have a big impact at the French Open despite some positive results on the clay over the last six weeks.
Madison Keys has had two early exits in Madrid and Rome since reaching the Final in Charleston, while Christine McHale reached the Quarter Final in Rome despite having a number of early losses prior to that tournament. McHale was aided by Serena Williams withdrawing from their Third Round match, but four wins in the Italian capital might give her some confidence to take into the remainder of the season.
Both of these players will feel confident in the conditions in Strasbourg having both reached the Semi Final here last season, but both Keys and McHale will be hoping another strong week isn't followed by a First Round exit in Paris.
I like Keys in the match because I think her extra power and ability on the serve will just set things up a little easier for her. Keys can be inconsistent off the ground at times, but she should have enough in her game to force McHale backwards and that should give her the edge in the match and help Keys win this one 64, 64.
Sam Stosur - 3.5 games v Monica Puig: Monica Puig hasn't been in the best form coming into Strasbourg, but it was a similar story for her twelve months ago before she went on to win the title here. It is going to be a difficult task for Puig to defend her title with a very tough First Round match against Sam Stosur and I favour the latter to come through the match.
Ut has been a disappointing clay court season for Stosur too coming into this event as she looks to pick up some form for the remainder of the 2015 season. The Australian has a strong serve, but has failed to back it up effectively from the ground and that has just worn her out at times.
Stosur's losses have come at a higher level than Puig's and I think she has been close in a couple of losses which suggests she isn't so far away from having a decent run somewhere. The winner of this match may feel they can go all the way, but I think Stosur's serve will give her the slight edge in both sets.
Being back in Strasbourg should inspire the defending Champion Puig, but I think Stosur finds a chink in her armour a couple more times than the other way round which leads to a 64, 64 win for the Australian.
MY PICKS: Joao Sousa - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rome Final: 11-12, - 4.30 Units (46 Units Staked, - 9.35% Yield)
Season 2015: + 41.99 Units (653 Units Staked, + 6.43% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
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