Tennis Picks 2021 (March 2nd)

The week started off pretty poorly, but two late winners has at least prevented serious damage being done on Monday as four new tournaments begin.

There are plenty of matches scheduled on Tuesday through the day with the majority of the First Round completed. The Qualifiers are done and those who have made it into the main draws will be looking to keep the upsets going, while those tournaments scheduled in the Middle East are the exception to the rule when it comes to Finals being set for Sunday and that always means a busy week in those events.

I've written down some of my thoughts for the ATP Rotterdam Picks for Tuesday and added the selections from WTA Doha, WTA Lyon and ATP Buenos Aires below.

Alex De Minaur - 4.5 games v John Millman: There are some big decisions that will need to be made by the players who represent Australia as they look to rejoin the Tour in 2021 with many missing the entirety of 2020 following the suspension of the Tours. Quarantine issues back home will mean the majority of those players will be living out of their suitcases for the foreseeable future and two Australians will meet thousands of miles away from home in the First Round in Rotterdam.

Alex De Minaur and John Millman will know all they need to about the other, and it is the higher Ranked Australian who will be heading into this match as the favourite. He enjoyed a much better month than John Millman who has made a stop in Singapore where he suffered his latest loss on the way to Europe.

Both are solid hard court players, but confidence has to be an issue for Millman having lost three matches in a row and the sole win coming against an opponent Ranked outside the top 400 in the World Rankings. Last week in Singapore John Millman was beaten by a fellow Australian Matthew Ebden, and his numbers have been pretty poor from the small sample of matches played on the hard courts in 2021.

Those numbers are considerably weaker than Alex De Minaur's numbers so far this season and I do think that makes a difference in this First Round match. Where Alex De Minaur has held 81% of service games played on the hard courts this season, John Millman is at 70%, while the former has also been the much more efficient returner so far.

Since the beginning of the 2020 season, Alex De Minaur has really been on top of those players he has faced outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings on this surface. His numbers have backed that up and I do think he will be able to get the better of his compatriot who De Minaur beat for the loss of four games in September 2019.

No one will deny how competitive John Millman can be, even when playing some of the stronger players on the Tour, and his return game can be a leveller. However I think Alex De Minaur does everything a little bit better than Millman and that can produce a solid win.

Karen Khachanov v Stan Wawrinka: These two have already faced each other in Rotterdam this week and that came on the Doubles court as Karen Khachanov partnered Andrey Rublev to a win over Stan Wawrinka and Dusan Lajovic. It feels like a good chance for Karen Khachanov to beat Stan Wawrinka on the Singles court too in what is likely to be a big hitting match, but one where the younger player may have too much strength for the former multiple time Grand Slam Champion.

There is no doubting how dangerous Stan Wawrinka can be and his serve continues to be a big weapon for the Swiss player and especially on the hard courts. He will look to put some pressure on Khachanov with a big serving day in conditions where it could be aided by the surface, but Wawrinka will be the first to admit that he needs to be a little more consistent if he is going to get back to the kind of level he once displayed.

The serve is important, but it has some pressure on it because of the way Stan Wawrinka has struggled with the return aspect of his game on the hard courts. In the four matches played so far in 2021 the return hasn't been too bad, but in the last three seasons Stan Wawrinka has struggled to break serve with less than 19% of return games resulting in a break.

It is an aspect of his game which will be severely tested by Karen Khachanov who has consistently won around 66% of service points played on the hard courts. His numbers have been slightly stronger to open 2021 as Khachanov has put a Semi Final run and a Third Round run at the Australian Open in the books.

Like his opponent, Karen Khachanov is pretty comfortable in what he can do behind serve, but he also has his issues when it comes to breaks on the hard courts. It is perhaps the main reason this match has been set as a pick 'em, but in recent years Karen Khachanov has had the slightly superior returning numbers which could prove to be the difference.

Stan Wawrinka does lead the head to head 2-1, but the last of those meetings was won by Karen Khachanov who would have felt hard done by when losing the match prior to the win in Canada. The Russian has had the slightly better success when it comes to the return of serve in their head to head matches and he has created 11 break points compared with Stan Wawrinka's 6 break points in the last two matches.

You can't ignore the fact that Stan Wawrinka has been a little more clinical with his chances when they have come up, but winning their last match will help the Karen Khachanov mindset ahead of this match. I think he can level the head to head with the serving edge going to him in Rotterdam and I will look for Khachanov to win this pick 'em match.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Egor Gerasimov: The defeat in the Australian Open Semi Final would have stung Stefanos Tsitsipas, especially the manner in which he was beaten, but this is a star player in the making. The win over Rafael Nadal in the Quarter Final showed what Stefanos Tsistipas is capable of and he will be looking for a strong final month on the hard courts before moving onto a more favoured clay court season.

He can have a strong run in Rotterdam this week as the Number 2 Seed in the draw and Stefanos Tsitsipas will be up against a Special Entrant in the First Round. You can't take anything for granted with the Qualifiers usually having their eye firmly in as well as a couple of matches in the new conditions that come with a move to a new tournament, but Egor Gerasimov has benefited from direct entry into the Rotterdam tournament thanks to his efforts in Montpellier last week.

The run last week will have given Gerasimov some confidence having seen off Andy Murray on his way to the Semi Final. Unlike his opponent, Egor Gerasimov would not have had many positive memories to take from his trip to Australia as he exited the first Grand Slam of the season in a match in which he won just a single game!

There is definitely more to him than that defeat to Aslan Karatsev would suggest and the Bulgarian has shown off some solid returning to back up what can be a very big serve when he is hitting his spots. It could particularly be a weapon for Gerasimov on an indoor hard court against someone like Stefanos Tsitsipas who has had his returning issues in his early career.

Signs in Australia suggested that Tsitsipas has improved parts of that side of his game, but the small sample means it is going to be a test for the World Number 6 to see if he can maintain his successes. Stefanos Tsitsipas has shown improvement in his game on the hard courts in the last couple of seasons though and so my feeling is that he will be able to improve his return ratings over the course of 2021 compared to where he has been in 2019 and 2020.

These two players did meet on what has traditionally been fast hard courts in Dubai a couple of years ago and it was Stefanos Tsitsipas who blew past Egor Gerasimov. I do think the latter is improved since then, but so is Tsitsipas and he can begin his healing after the disappointing end to his Australian Open campaign by winning this match in good fashion.

MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Ons Jabeur - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Paula Badosa  @ 1.72 Bet Fred

Albert Ramos - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Facundo Bagnis @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (May 22nd)

The Tennis continues in the lead up to the French Open which begins on Sunday, but the tournaments being played this week will be hoping the weather settles down to ensure they are finished on Saturday as scheduled.

I've placed the Second Round Picks being played on Wednesday in this thread.

This should be the last time I am not able to write out any analysis for the Tennis Picks between now and the end of the French Open. Things have been a little hectic to prevent that happening over the last couple of weeks, but that should be cleared up going forward.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Nikoloz Basilashvili - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Christian Garin - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-2, - 1.80 Units (6 Units Staked, - 30% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (May 26th)

I arrived back in London late on Thursday night and was understandably exhausted so there were no tennis picks written out on Friday.

I did research the Semi Final matches being played in the four tournaments this week and I am going to just place them in the 'MY PICKS' section below.

Friday is also the day the French Open draw will come out and that is going to be interesting to breakdown, especially the women's draw which looks absolutely wide open.

MY PICKS: Milos Raonic - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia @ 2.15 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2017 (May 24th)

There won't be any tennis picks on Thursday as I will be away for the Europa League Final until late Thursday evening, but I will look through the schedule for Friday and see if anything stands out.

So far this week there haven't been too many picks as I have not seen a lot of options, but Wednesday looks to be a busier day with the majority of tournaments looking to get their Second Round matches completed so the events can be concluded on Saturday.

The draw for the French Open main draw will also be made on Friday and we should have the schedule of play for Sunday released on Saturday when the outright picks and Day 1 Picks should be ready to go.

Before that I will have a thread for the FA Cup Final and the big boxing night at Bramall Lane where Kell Brook defends his World Welterweight Title against Errol Spence Jr in what looks a cracking fight.


Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: Going into the clay court season, Albert Ramos-Vinolas may have been one of those players people would have picked for a really strong showing. He did reach the Final at the Monte Carlo Masters, but there have been some disappointing early losses too and the Spaniard is going to have to defend a lot of points in Paris next week.

Back to back losses to Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and John Isner would have been matches that Ramos-Vinolas may have expected to win. That has got to have knocked some confidence and there is no doubting the danger that Andrey Kuznetsov brings to the court in this one.

The Russian has talent and has previously enjoyed his time in Geneva with some solid wins behind him. Kuznetsov came from a set down to beat Thomaz Bellucci in the First Round although he has been inconsistent on the clay courts at this level in his career.

There are times Kuznetsov is picking all the right shots and he can be very tough to break with the way he approaches the match. That will give Ramos-Vinolas something to think about, but I do think the Spaniard is the better clay court player and I would expect him to showcase that over the course of the match.

It might need three sets to determine the winner, but I am looking for Ramos-Vinolas to come through with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 kind of win in a topsy-turvy Second Round encounter.


Qiang Wang - 1.5 games v Shelby Rogers: There might be something that I don't know about how Qiang Wang is feeling, but I would have her as a much bigger favourite to win this match than the layers have in this Second Round encounter. Wang has been playing really well over the last few weeks and I think Shelby Rogers might be over-rated for a win over Caroline Wozniacki who had to retire in the second set of their match.

Rogers did play well at the French Open last season but she hasn't had a lot of matches under belt thanks to injury and early losses in a number of tournaments in preparation for Roland Garros this year.

The American is capable on the clay courts with the added time allowing her to power past opponents but I think she is not playing with the consistency or had enough matches for the rhythm that will be needed to beat Wang.

Wang is 9-3 on the clay courts this year, although a few of those have been on the Qualifiers, and that comes at the end of a title win in Zhengzhou on the hard courts which have clearly given her more belief. I think that carries over here and she can beat Rogers in two tight sets which will be enough to cover this number.


Oceane Dodin - 2.5 games v Misaki Doi: There is a lot to like about Oceane Dodin's game and the young Frenchwoman has the chance to put together a strong week in Nuremberg in preparation for the French Open next week. Some inconsistencies still come through, but Dodin is able to hit the ball very hard through the clay courts and can have the patience to win this match.

She will need to be patient against Misaki Doi who is a solid enough defensive player that will look for the mistakes to be made against her. However her lack of real punch off the ground does mean that opponents are able to get the upper hand in rallies and staying in the match from a mental point of view is the key for Dodin in this one.

If she starts getting frustrated with the Doi defences, it is going to lead to more and more unforced errors and that is a surefire way to lose a match. However, Dodin will have the edge in the rallies with the chances she will have the first strike more often than not and her confidence can improve if she is able to restrict those mistakes and ultimately win the points.

It is a match up of contrasting styles, but one where I think the power and aggression of Dodin can see her get the better of Doi in the Second Round. Dodin should be able to get her teeth into the Doi service games and that can lead to a 6-4, 6-4 kind of win for the younger player and a place in the Quarter Final on Thursday.


Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Hyeon Chung: There is no doubting that Tomas Berdych is not the player he once was, but he is still a solid enough clay court player to win matches like this. When Berdych has been beaten, he has tended to be beaten fairly comfortably over the last few weeks on the clay courts, but he does have a 6-3 record on the surface.

Only one of his losses might be looked at as one he shouldn't have taken and Berdych would have covered this number of games in all six wins on the clay since April.

Hyeon Chung has to be respected as he has won three matches here in Lyon and this is the first match that Berdych will be playing. The win over Alexander Zverev in Barcelona looks a very good one for the youngster who has yet to really find the consistency to be playing in the biggest events on the Tour having missed out in Madrid and Rome.

Chung also had a strong run in Munich in his last tournament so you can see why the layers don't want to give too much away on the handicap in this one. The wins have been solid enough over the last couple of months, but I think Berdych has been beating those players he should be some comfort and I can see him doing the same on Wednesday.

It won't be easy for Berdych who has to play close to his best level to see off Chung in the Second Round. However I think he can do that in a 7-6, 6-4 win here in Lyon and I will back him to cover the games.

MY PICKS: Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Qiang Wang - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Oceane Dodin - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2017 (May 23rd)

The four tournaments being played this week move into the Second Round in a few cases as they want to make sure they are completed before the French Open begins on Sunday.

The First Round at Roland Garros is played over the first three days of that event which is the only Grand Slam to begin on a Sunday. That means the pressure is on the events this week to make sure they can complete the tournaments on a Saturday so avoiding poor weather is the key.

It does feel like a very good week for tennis in Europe though which is extending into next week in Paris where the Qualifiers are being played at the moment.


Eugenie Bouchard - 1.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: The tournament in Madrid was an important one for Eugenie Bouchard who has had a couple of really average years on the WTA Tour. I was never as high on the Canadian as some people when she did produce some of her best tennis in the Grand Slams, but that was now back in 2014 and it is not a stretch to say that Bouchard has been nothing better than average in that time.

Her wins in Madrid may give her some confidence in what has been another poor five months on the Tour compared to the press time Bouchard is afforded. Bouchard is just 8-10 on the clay courts since reaching the Semi Final at Roland Garros and I don't think many will be backing her to have a strong run at the French Open next week.

In saying all that, I do think Bouchard can get the better of Yulia Putintseva in this First Round match in Nuremberg, a player who has been underachieving on the clay courts this past six weeks. She has had success in the past, but Putintseva is generally outgunned at this level and it is hard to win matches when fighting so hard to hold onto your own service games.

Someone like Bouchard will throw in some sloppy games of her own though which makes this a tight match and I do think it will likely go into a third set to decide the winner.

However I do think Bouchard can just get the better of Putintseva behind the heavier groundstrokes and with the added confidence of a decent run in Madrid. It could end up with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 kind of win for the Canadian to move through to the Second Round.


Samantha Stosur - 3.5 games v Madison Brengle: It hasn't been a vintage season for Samantha Stosur who simply isn't the player she was a few years ago, but I would still heavily favour her to get the better of Madison Brengle on the clay courts.

It was a decent win for Brengle in the First Round after winning a couple of Qualifiers to get into the main draw in Strasbourg, but she is just 5-11 in main draw clay court matches. Her style of play should not really be one that transfers onto the clay courts that well as she will use a lot of defensive shots that simply sit up on the surface and allow opponents to dominate.

I am not that surprised that she is beaten quite comfortably when she does get beaten on the surface, but Brengle will likely extract some errors from the Stosur game especially when she can force her into backhand to backhand rallies.

The difference here is Stosur's serve should set her up much more effectively than it does for Brengle and I do think that is going to decide the course of the match. While Brengle is likely going to have to dig deep in the majority of her service games to hold, the Stosur serve can set up short returns for the Australian to dominate the rally and effectively hold with much more 'ease' than her opponent.

That should see Stosur have enough to earn a break more in each set of a straights set win and I will back her to cover this number.


Kyle Edmund - 3.5 games v Thiago Monteiro: Late decisions to enter tournaments can sometimes mean a lower Ranked player enters a main draw when the higher Ranked player had come through the Qualifiers. That is the case in Lyon where Kyle Edmund had to win a couple of Qualifiers before entering the main draw where he will be favoured to beat Thiago Monteiro.

I don't think Edmund will mind having to play a couple of Qualifiers just for the additional clay court matches to put under his belt in what has been a mixed portion of the season for him. There have been signs that Edmund can very much produce his best tennis on the clay courts, but he is still very inconsistent with his results which can make it difficult to trust him.

However it should be said that Monteiro does tend to play his best tennis in South America rather than on the European clay courts and he has not exactly been producing the results to build the confidence. The Brazilian has been able to push a couple of opponents, but he didn't play well in a loss to Daniel Evans and will have to be significantly better to beat Edmund.

Even if an inconsistent Edmund shows up, I think he will likely win a close one. However Edmund is 5-4 during this clay court swing heading into the French Open and would have covered this number in all five wins he has had.

I think he can put enough pressure on the Monteiro game to come through with a relatively straight-forward 6-3, 6-4 kind of win in this one and I will back the British player here.

MY PICKS: Eugenie Bouchard - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Samantha Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)