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Friday, 3 May 2024

Boxing Picks 2024- Canelo Alvarez vs Jaime Munguia (Saturday 4th May)

Upsets in Boxing really do make some major headlines and it was no surprise that many were talking about Ryan Garcia's win over Devin Haney after a tumultuous build up.

That confused many and there was a feeling that Ryan Garcia was not completely focused on the huge fight that was coming up, and even coming overweight was forgiven relatively quickly in light of his win.

It is unlikely to be the case with the news that has broken on Wednesday evening.

Failing a drugs test after coming in overweight should mean Ryan Garcia is hit hard by fans and the boxing commissions, and the win over Haney is now incredibly tainted. It should have been after missing weight deliberately, but Devin Haney's team should have pulled the plug on the event with his well-being in mind and ultimately they went ahead having been paid enough to do so.

However, it is not going to be the case when it comes to this drugs test failure and Ryan Garcia should be ashamed- he won't be having picked up a career payday and ultimately Boxing will know how big his next fight will become after all this controversy, but he should be battered from pillar to post for an absolute pathetic display of cheating.

What makes it worse is the amount of so called fans who will make excuses for fighters like this- the idea that someone is victimising the cheat is an incredible way to look at the evidence, but others have gone down that route over the last couple of years so there is no surprise that Garcia's approach will be the same.

Instead of hearing about a length of a ban, the anticipation is that Ryan Garcia will announce his retirement and serve his suspension under the cover of that blanket. Like others, he will then announce his return and give us some strange story about being 'self-cleared' as if the failed test was a mistake by the testers and Boxing will likely welcome back a potential needle-moving 'star'.

It is a story that we have seen time after time with some of the biggest names still operating in the sport and should not come as a surprise to anyone when it happens.


For Devin Haney, the plan will be to force a No Contest decision to remove the loss from the record, but social media makes things very different now.

Losing in that high profile spot and some of the images from the Knock Downs cannot be erased and there will also be some mental demons to exorcise going forward. He took some real punishment and that is a shame considering Haney was playing within the rules and suffered for that by someone willing to cut corners, act unprofessionally and ultimately cheat.

Expunging the result from the record may work when it is read out before fights, but Devin Haney is right to be furious and will have to change the narrative around that result in the ring, certainly as far as a certain portion of the fanbase are concerned.


This is a story that has legs and will likely be in the forefront of Boxing headlines for some time to come, but the hope is that this weekend will see those in the ring making the statements.

There are two big names heading out on Saturday in the United States and then on Monday in Japan.

Thoughts on Naoya Inoue vs Luis Nery will be placed in a separate thread with the focus in this one being the return of Canelo Alvarez who takes on a young compatriot that has been calling for this fight for a long time.


Canelo Alvarez vs Jaime Munguia

Hours before the Ryan Garcia news broke, Oscar De La Hoya stood at the podium and made note of the failed drug tests that Canelo Alvarez had several years ago.

He might be regretting that now with Golden Boy's top star under the cloud of a failed test of his own, but De La Hoya is clearly trying to get into the head of Canelo Alvarez and hoping to rattle him enough to make mistakes.

Tension between the two, former promoter and star fighter, have been growing since Canelo Alvarez took the legal route to get out of his contract with Golden Boy. He managed to do that and there has been no love lost between Canelo and Oscar De La Hoya, which came to a head in the last presser and with two almost squaring up.

It could have been a bout several years ago, but that is not likely to happen now despite what Oscar De La Hoya has hinted at in recent times.

And while these two are jawing at one another, with some serious allegations being made by Canelo Alvarez against Golden Boy and De La Hoya, Jaime Munguia is quietly focusing on the biggest night of his career.

This has been a fight that Jaime Munguia has long been speaking about, but the question remains- how good is the unbeaten Mexican? Pulling out of World Title eliminators or when pushed into a Number 1 contender spot has raised eyebrows and it has felt like Munguia has been positioned to earn this fight without taking any serious risk.

Back in 2018, an unknown Jaime Munguia was close to stepping into the ring with Gennady Golovkin, but it was decided by the Nevada State Athletic Commission that the then 21 year old was not a suitable opponent. Instead he was given the chance to rip the WBO Light Middleweight World Title from Sadam Ali and Jaime Munguia announced himself in a big way with a Fourth Round Stoppage.

The resume since that win over Ali shows how carefully Jaime Munguia has been matched and you would find it tough to point out a stand out win. Beating Sergiy Derevyanchenko is perhaps that victory, but Munguia was very close to losing that one and needed a Twelfth Round Knock Down to secure a narrow victory on the cards, while the victory over John Ryder in January was against an opponent who has since retired.

Canelo Alvarez does look to be on the slide, but this is still a considerable step up for Jaime Munguia and the feeling is that it might have come a touch too early for him. The power is perhaps not quite there at Super Middleweight, but Canelo Alvarez is still a quality fighter who can impress in those spurts to put the Rounds in the bank.

The last three wins have all been on the cards against Gennady Golovkin, John Ryder and Jermell Charlo, although none of those performances can really be considered that impressive.

However, there is no doubting the Boxing IQ and Canelo's foot work is likely going to be the key to getting past his young compatriot, although the Champion will be pushed at times.

The work rate of Jaime Munguia will make him dangerous, but he can be outboxed and it feels like it will be very difficult for him to land something significant enough to completely change momentum within this Championship bout. Having his successes is one thing, but having enough to secure a win on the cards looks unlikely even if the expectation is that Jaime Munguia will offer much more of a positive approach than Jermell Charlo did.

The younger fighter will be able to come again, but the expectation is that Canelo Alvarez will have his hand raised after Twelve Rounds are completed. While this has the makings of an intriguing fight, the prices are less impressive and finding a good angle to approach this one is tough.

Canelo has Knocked Down three of his last five opponents to show he has the pop to hurt Jaime Munguia, although perhaps not to finish him. However, he is just about odds against to put Munguia down during the Twelve Rounds and this is going to be a fight to enjoy without picking a position in which I expect it to be concluded.

The most likely outcome feels like Canelo Alvarez will win this one on the cards, perhaps by a closer margin than some expect, and it would not be a surprise to me to see a 116/112 score across the board.


The undercard is featuring a number of fighters looking to push their careers forward, none more so than Eimantas Stanionis who is the WBA Regular Champion in the Welterweight Division.

The 147 pounders have been held up by Terence Crawford and Errol Spence Jr and things are still murky ten months after those two leading names met with Bud taking home Undisputed. He is set to move up to Light Middleweight and that should mean the World Titles are officially vacated with the likes of Stanionis and Mario Berrios likely being upgraded.

Despite the hold up, injuries both to the Regular Champion and his opponents has meant Eimantas Stanionis has been far too inactive in recent years.

He might be the WBA Regular Champion, but that sounds silly when you think Stanionis will be making his ring return for the first time in over two years. Inactivity is unforgivable and this will be just the third fight since April 2021, which could leave Eimantas Stanionis vulnerable, even against this level of opponent.

Gabriel Maestre is somehow Ranked at Number 4 by the WBA after just seven professional bouts and he holds a controversial win over Mykal Fox and a Split Decision draw with Taras Shelestyuk on his resume. He did win a couple of fights against veteran Devon Alexander and unbeaten Travon Marshall in 2023 and that activity may make him dangerous, but it is still a big ask of Maestre to rip the title from Stanionis.

The Champion should retain, but his inactivity really makes it very difficult to know what we are going to see- the only hope is that with Jaron Ennis soon to return, the Welterweight Division finally gets back to life after both Terence Crawford and Errol Spence Jr move on following long dominances in the weight class.


Both Eimantas Stanionis and Jaron Ennis have been given full titles with the WBA and IBF in the 147 pound Division, but Mario Barrios is an Interim WBC World Champion who will be upgraded if he retains this weekend. He goes up against Fabian Andres Maidana, who is the younger brother of Marcos Maidana, and retaining the Interim World Title will put Barrios in line to perhaps Unify with the likes of Stanionis and/or Ennis in the months ahead.

Terence Crawford moves into the Light Middleweight Division in early August, when the WBC are likely to make the winner of this fight the full World Champion, and so there is a lot on the line.

Mario Barrios lost back to back fights against Gervonta Davis and Keith Thurman, but he returned to win two fights in 2023, including the upset of former World Champion Yordenis Ugas in September to pick up this Interim Title. The dominance shown in that win will have given Barrios confidence as he prepares to face a name that is very familiar to those in the United States.

Instead of Fabian Andres, Marcos Maidana will be the name people are thinking of when seeing the opponent that is facing Mario Barrios and the hope for many is that the younger brother is as capable as Marcos showed he was during his pomp.

He is something of an unknown and the feeling is that Marcos' name will be a bigger selling point around this fight than anything that Fabian Andres has achieved. The majority of recent bouts have been in his home country and there are not many names that will stand out on the resume, which suggests this is a considerable step upwards.

Argentinian fighters are tough and Fabian Andres Maidana is very much expected to be the same, but this is an opportunity for Mario Barrios to show that he is ready to compete with the very best names left in the 147 pound Division.

Mario Barrios has shown he has pop that will give Maidana something to think about, although the big question in this bout is whether the Interim Champion can go through the gears and force the Stoppage.

The expectation is that Barrios can go wear down Maidana and ultimately that is likely going to lead to a late Stoppage. The underdog and Challenger will be a threat and may go for broke if he is behind, but that may mean more opportunities for Mario Barrios to find a big counter or two late on to eventually get the referee to step in and end this contest before the scorecards.


Fourteen months have passed since we last saw Brandon Figueroa in the ring and the current Interim WBC Featherweight Champion will be looking to defend that Belt against Jessie Magdaleno.

Cuts have perhaps contributed to the layoff, and in that time Rey Vargas has returned to the Division having defending the full WBC World Title in a controversial draw with Nick Ball, who should have perhaps earned the win. This result does leave Brandon Figueroa's future as Interim Champion a little uncertain, but the focus has to be on returning with a victory and then pursuing Vargas before eventually trying to Unify against other World Champions.

There is definitely some excitement about the return of Brandon Figueroa who is rarely in a poor fight and he will certainly feel he can hand Jessie Magdaleno a third career defeat.

The last time we saw Magdaleno he was coming up short against Raymond Ford, who has since come from behind in a World Title bid to become the new WBA Featherweight Champion.

He has had a similar lay off to Brandon Figueroa and the feeling is that the Interim World Champion will have too much work rate and too much power for Jessie Magdaleno to be able to stand up to all he faces.

There were times where Raymond Ford looked to have worn down Magdaleno, whose previous defeat was late in the fight against Isaac Dogboe.

Something similar may occur here when Brandon Figueroa shakes off some of the early ring rust and the body work that he puts in is likely going to pay dividends at some point just past halfway. Raymond Ford almost made that pay out against Jessie Magdaleno, but the feeling is that Brandon Figueroa has a bit more pop and ultimately I expect the Interim World Champion to force the Stoppage in around Nine Rounds.

MY PICKS: Mario Barrios to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Brandon Figueroa to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.60 William Hill (2 Units)

Boxing 2024: 17-27, + 10.92 Units (62 Units Staked, + 17.61% Yield)

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