NBA PlayOffs 2024- First Round Picks Games 5-7 (April 29-May 5)

 

NBA PlayOffs 2024- First Round Picks Games 5-7 (April 29-May 5)

The NBA PlayOffs have perhaps not been filled with the drama some would have hoped for, but we are moving into a position to have some very strong looking Conference Semi Final Series beginning next week.

That does not mean there is still not some work to do for the leading teams to move through to the next Round.

At the time of writing, only the Minnesota Timberwolves have swept their way through the First Round after humiliating the Phoenix Suns, although the Oklahoma City Thunder play on Monday bidding to become the second team through without dropping a game.

Six of the eight Series that have begun will need at least a Game 5, but there are a couple of teams heading back home to complete wins, while another is looking to secure the upset that many tipped in the First Round.

Will we get to a Game 7 in any of the First Round Series? Two are tied at 2-2 through four games, and so the feeling is that the Conference Semi Final Round could potentially begin this weekend instead of any Game 7's being scheduled to be played.

It has been an up and down time for the NBA PlayOff Picks and the key going forward is trying to find the consistency to at least push the positive surge forward.

In the main there has not been too many really down days, but that does not mean there is not room for improvement if trying to get anywhere near the number produced at the end of the 2023 post-season.

Tuesday 30th April

Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks Game 5 Pick: There has been frustration throughout this First Round Series for the Philadelphia 76ers- in Game 2 they feel the officiating cost them the chance to leave Madison Square Garden with a split of the first two games, while Joel Embiid voiced his disappointment that there has been so much vocal support for the New York Knicks in both Philadelphia road games.

He did not say much about that after the Game 3 win, but on Sunday night the Knicks held off the Philadelphia 76ers for an important victory that moves them 3-1 clear in the First Round Series.

The first chance of eliminating the 76ers comes on Tuesday when the Series shifts back to New York City and the Knicks have to be confident having won a game where Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo combined for 12 points and had a 3/18 shooting day from the field.

That isn't to say they did not impact Game 4 in a different way, but it also meant the New York Knicks had to lean on Jalen Brunson for the win. After struggling in the first couple of games, Brunson has found his touch in the post-season and set a new franchise record of 47 points while leading the Knicks to the road win.

Momentum is certainly with the Knicks now.

Outside of Game 3, the Knicks have really ramped up their Defensive strengths and they have been able to contain the Philadelphia threats. Shutting down Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey completely always looks to be unlikely, but they are harassing the two best 76ers and ultimately the role players have not been able to make an impact except for in the one game the 76ers won.

The hope for Philadelphia is that they can make the adjustments to get those role players going, but it has long been a much tougher test for those players when having to perform on the road. They almost won Game 2 inside The Garden so there is still hope for the 76ers to at least push this Series into Game 6 back at home, but the momentum has certainly swung very much behind New York.

The Knicks did not shoot the three ball very well in Game 4, which makes the win that much more impressive, but they should get back on the horse on Tuesday. Home teams have tended to dominate Game 5 of the First Round in the PlayOffs in recent years and the Knicks may just do enough to secure passage into the Conference Semi Finals without having to travel again.

Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 5 Pick: The Fourth Quarter of Game 2 saw the Orlando Magic rally, but ultimately come up short against the Cleveland Cavaliers and they returned to Florida 2-0 down in this First Round Series.

However, it seemed like the Magic had found something that could give the Cavaliers problems in that Fourth Quarter and back to back home blowouts have seen them run with the momentum that may have been gained, even when coming up short.

All four games in this Series have been won by the home team and backing the home favourite has led to a 4-0 record against the spread.

Things may be about to change.

While the Magic have found the adjustmens and really ramped up their shooting, the steady Cleveland Cavaliers have not really found Offensive answers. Winning the first two games behind strong Defensive performances is one thing as the Cavaliers held the Magic to an average of 84.5 points per game, but Orlando's adjustments have seen them average 116.5 points per game in winning two in a row at home.

A young, inexperienced team have to show they can take those adjustments on the road, and that is where that Fourth Quarter rally in Game 2 may just give Orlando the confidence to win a game in this Arena. They did do that once in the regular season, although this will depend on the bench players showing they can compete in a very different kind of PlayOff intensity and atmosphere that comes with playing on the road.

The Cavaliers have yet to find their own Offensive identity and they may be relying on the Magic to miss more than actually sorting out their own issues as we move into Game 5 of the Series. Cleveland have yet to score more than 97 points in any game in this Series, although they will at least point to their better Offensive performances being at home having failed to crack 89 points in either road loss.

Being at home will help, and home teams have been strong in Game 5 in First Round Series outside of the NBA Bubble of 2020. However, those teams are only 20-20 against the spread, while being 31-9 straight up, and the Orlando Magic look to have rolled some serious momentum behind them.

This looks enough points to expect the road team to keep this one within the number set, especially as Orlando have every chance to winning this one outright.

Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 5 Pick: The First Round exit to the Miami Heat twelve months ago meant there were some serious discussions in Milwaukee as to how the Bucks can get closer to winning another NBA Championship.

Pairing Giannis Antetokounmpo with Damian Lillard looked a very good plan and am mid-season decision to fire Adrian Griffin and replace him with Doc Rivers suggested they were all in to try and win the NBA Championship for the second time in four years.

Unfortunately the injury bug has bitten the Bucks at the wrong time with both Antetokounmpo and Lillard out of Game 4 as they ran out of steam in the defeat to the Indiana Pacers. A tough looking match up has now left Milwaukee with no room for error with the team trialing 3-1 and with both star players still doubtful to return.

To make matters worse, the Bucks have a banged up Khris Middleton trying to hold things down, while Bobby Portis was ejected during Game 4 to really make things very difficult for the road team. It means the Pacers have won three in a row and have all the momentum they need to try and secure a gentlemen's sweep of this First Round Series.

Quite a lot of factors have fallen in favour of the Indiana Pacers, but there is still room for improvement from the team leading 3-1. In two of the four games played in this Series, the Pacers have lit things up from the three point range, but they are still searching for the consistency that may give them a chance to progress further than the next Round.

Sharing the ball around and finding the hot hand worked in Game 4 as a short-handed Milwaukee team just could not keep up and especially not after Middleton was banged up again and Portis was thrown out of the game.

At home you would expect the Bucks to show their Championship resiliency, but something similar may happen here.

You would make a hard case for the Milwaukee Bucks having enough bodies to keep this one competitive if they fall into a early hole and the Pacers might just be ready to move through to the Conference Semi Finals, which may begin as soon as Saturday if Indiana can win one of the next two games.

Wednesday 1st May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: The three point onslaught in Game 2 saw the Miami Heat upset the odds and earn a split of the first two games of this First Round Series, but most would have expected that to be an outlier in the overall scheme of this PlayOff clash.

And ultimately those opinions look to be proven to be right.

The Boston Celtics might have had one or two mental demons to exorcise after losing Game 2, but this is a team that has a clear focus on trying to win the NBA Championship. That means needing to respond like Champions and the Celtics have done just that by blowing out the Heat in back to back road games and now moving to the brink of earning a spot in the Eastern Conference Semi Finals.

At this stage it would be a real upset if the Celtics are not able to complete the job and most likely as soon as Game 5 is played on Wednesday.

It has not been a perfect Series by any stretch of the imagination and Kristaps Porzingis looks to have picked up an injury that may keep him out until the Eastern Conference Finals at best. The Celtics are unlikely to risk him considering the important role he has been playing with the team, but they will be confident that they can make relatively comfortable passage even if they have to give Porzingis time to recover.

There is also still more to come from the top names on the roster, but the Boston Celtics have to be pleased with the dominance they are showing in this Series even without Jayson Tatum and/or Jaylen Brown needing to take control of games. The roster has been built to have threats all over the court and that is what we have seen, coupled with Defensive intensity that has suffocated a Miami Heat team badly missing Jimmy Butler.

The only real hope the Heat had was to nail their three pointers at the clip they managed in Game 2, but that has always felt unsustainable for four out of seven games to win this Series. They managed 23 three pointers in that Game 2 win, but just 18 combined in the last two games at home and neither has been as close as the 20 point and 14 point margins of victory would suggest.

Covering this spread will not be easy as the Celtics have clearly taken their foot off the gas in the last couple of wins, and did the same in Game 1, but they have shown they can build massive leads before they do that.

The chance to eliminate the team that upset their NBA Championship aspirations last year will have given Boston the motivation to ensure they have gotten into position to have those big leads, and that may be the case again in Game 5.

The line has moved up a couple more points with the Series heading back to Boston, but it is shorter than the one set for Game 1 and Game 2 with the Porzingis injury perhaps being a contributory factor. The Celtics have covered double digits spreads in all three of their wins in this First Round Series and they can do that again on Wednesday as they move into the Conference Semi Finals, which could begin this weekend.

Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 5 Pick: The end of the First Quarter in Game 4 of this First Round Series saw the big road underdog finish with a 23 point lead over the Dallas Mavericks as they looked to square up the Series. There will have been some panic on the Los Angeles Clippers sideline when the Mavericks fought all the way back to level the game, but somehow the veteran team held off the rally and return home at 2-2.

It was a remarkable game and one that will have hurt the Dallas Mavericks.

Perhaps they were overconfident having won two in a row in the Series and with Kawhi Leonard sitting out, but the deep hole of the end of the First Quarter proved to be costly for the Mavericks who now have to win at least once more in Los Angeles if they are going to progress to the Conference Semi Finals.

The Oklahoma City Thunder will be rested by the time that Series comes around, and so it is important for the Mavericks to exert some control. The last three Quarters of Game 4 will have given them some momentum and the Mavericks have been favoured in all four games in this First Round Series, which makes the fact it is tied at 2-2 all the more disappointing as far as they are concerned.

For the Clippers, replicating the hugely efficient three point shooting day will be the challenge as they look for a couple more upsets to keep the NBA Championship hopes alive for a veteran roster. Failing to win a Championship will likely mean big chances are coming this off-season, although a deep PlayOff run may persuade the higher ups to give the likes of Leonard, Paul George, James Harden and Russell Westbrook one more run.

In the previous two games, both losses, the Clippers had struggled to have an impact from the three point shooting range and that has given the Dallas Mavericks an edge. Defensively the Clippers are giving themselves a chance, and that is going to be key for the team again if they are going to find a way through to the Conference Semi Finals.

It has been a competitive Series, but the response of the Mavericks in the last three Quarters of Game 4 should see them come out much faster than they did in that one. They cannot afford to be chasing again, but showed they do have an ability to drag back the Clippers if needed.

This time the Mavericks may be in the game at the end of the Third Quarter and that could lead to them finding the big plays late on to secure a win and cover.

Thursday 2nd May

Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers Game 6 Pick: The First Quarter ended with an 8 point deficit, but the Milwaukee Bucks were not prepared for the season to end and dominated the middle two Quarters to pummel the Indiana Pacers and force Game 6 on the road.

Keeping the positives going will not be easy without Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo, but the Milwaukee Bucks have found something in the last three games.

Bobby Portis had a very big Game 6 having apologised to his team mates for being ejected in Game 5 and allowing the team to be overwhelmed. Without the top two names on the roster, Portis and Khris Middleton have become major players for the Milwaukee Bucks and the former showed in his 29 point effort in Game 6 just how important he is going to be for the remainder of this Series and potentially beyond.

Finding the same quality of shots on the road will be a challenge for the Milwaukee Bucks, but they will feel they are still being very competitive against the Indiana Pacers, who are not as experienced when it comes to winning PlayOff Series.

The depth of the Pacers makes them dangerous, and they should be all the better for being back at home despite absorbing a big haymaker in Game 5. They shot the ball incredibly well in Game 4 at home, but the three point shooting has not been as strong for the Pacers in the games around that one and it should give the Bucks an opportunity if they can keep all of their players involved in the game.

Winning here will be very tough, but road teams are 29-10 against the spread in Game 6's of the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs in recent years and the Milwaukee Bucks look to be receiving enough points where they can be backed to keep this one competitive.

New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 6 Pick: We have already seen the Philadelphia 76ers recover from an incredible collapse in a PlayOff game once in this First Round Series, but it is going to be the New York Knicks looking to do the same when Game 6 is played on Thursday.

The Series looked to be coming to an end with the Knicks holding a two possession lead and with thirty seconds remaining, but things turned around just as unexpectedly as the Game 2 that New York won. This time they were forced into Overtime before coming up short as they looked to close out a Series at Madison Square Garden for the first time in almost thirty years.

Bouncing back will not be easy and the Knicks have struggled to find their shooting rhythm outside of Jalen Brunson, who is trying to carry this team into the Eastern Conference Semi Finals again.

Earlier in the Series others were stepping up for New York, but there has be a concern with the level of performance in the last couple of games. Josh Hart has been having his struggles, while the depth of rotation is not as great as the New York Knicks fans would have hoped.

Injuries have played a part and the Knicks have to find a way to lift themselves having more than a single foot moving into the Conference Semi Finals before capitulating late on in Game 5.

For Philadelphia, the feeling is that they have deserved to at least have one more game at home even if it came about in unexpected fashion. They have been very much relying on Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid to lead the way and have some of the other players on the roster chip in, something that should be easier to do at home.

It will be the game plan going forward for the 76ers, but the feeling is that the Defensive schemes are getting on top of the opponent.

This has been key in Game 6's in recent years in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs and that has also been important for road teams in their bid to cover. Those on the road looking to close out a Series have also been very successful against the spread and the New York Knicks can be backed to bounce back from the heartbreak of Game 5.

Friday 3rd May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic Game 6 Pick: A strong start was needed and made by the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 5 having dropped back to back games in this First Round Series. Both losses had been on the road and they would have been extremely concerned about potentially losing in the First Round of the PlayOffs for a second season in a row if the Orlando Magic had stolen home court advantage away.

It all came down to the final ninety seconds of Game 5 with the Cleveland Cavaliers holding on to a narrow lead and they did just enough to secure a single point win, one point that means leading 3-2 and with the chance of earning a spot in the Conference Semi Finals against the Boston Celtics as soon as Friday evening.

Doing so without Jarrett Allen made the win that much more special for the Cleveland Cavaliers and gives them options- they can either choose to begin Allen on the bench for Game 6 to make sure he is fully ready to go in case of any Game 7, or bring him back into the fold as long as he can deal with the bruised hip that kept him on the sidelines a couple of days ago.

This is a game time decision for the Cavaliers, but the 3-2 lead has allowed them to think ahead as to how they can approach the end of this First Round Series. They did crack 100 points for the first time in this Series, but the Cavaliers have to show they can compete much better on the road than they have in Game 3 and Game 4 when suffering blowouts.

The Magic will be disappointed with the defeat in Game 5, but they have been much more confident at home and the shooting efficiency backs up that belief. After nailing down 12 three pointers in Game 3 and 13 in Game 4, the Magic only managed 9 in the last game and that effectively proved to be pivotal to the narrow margin in which they were beaten.

Players have been much more comfortable in home settings and Orlando have been stronger on both ends of the court in front of their own fans. Hosts of Game 6 have not had a very successful time of late and road teams closing out a Series in Game 6 have tended to be strong covering options, but the Magic have to have more confidence after the way in which they have both games at home in this Series.

Game 5 proved to be the first one in which the host has failed to cover in this First Round Series and the Orlando Magic can ensure that is the exception as they push for a win and cover that forces a Game 7 decider on Sunday.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks Game 6 Pick: It really did feel like the Dallas Mavericks may still have had the momentum, despite dropping Game 4 at home, and that was largely down to how they performed for all but a single Quarter in that one.

Game 5 had a similar feel with the First Quarter being closely contested against the Los Angeles Clippers, but this time the Mavericks were not 23 points behind and instead a single point ahead. From that moment it was all Dallas and the blowout win on the road has given them a 3-2 lead in the Series and with an opportunity to close out and progress into the Conference Semi Finals as soon as Friday evening when the Series shifts back to Texas.

Luka Doncic played through illness and an injury, one that he felt would have meant rest in the regular season. However, this is the PlayOffs and it is all pumps to the deck as Dallas look to fight past an injury hit Los Angeles Clippers who have a veteran core that may be wearing down.

They did hang onto the win in Game 4 even when the huge lead evaporated, but that would have meant a considerable effort from the Clippers and it perhaps hurt them last time out. There is little time for rest between Game 5 and Game 6, but having the likes of Paul George and James Harden playing fewer than 34 minutes each will at least help a little bit as the Clippers hope to bring this Series back to Los Angeles for a PlayOff decider.

Kawhi Leonard missed out again and has to be considered doubtful for Game 6- even if he finds a way to suit up, Leonard is going to be limited and all of the chips are now in favour of the Dallas Mavericks having won three of the last four games.

Most have been close so this spread seems a touch high, especially if the travelling back and forth from Los Angeles means a little more suffering for Luka Doncic. He showed he can battle through and be very effective and was also given considerable rest in the Fourth Quarter of Game 6 to ensure he is going to be ready and that should mean Dallas are in a position to move into the Conference Semi Finals.

Covering might be more challenging, but it should be noted that the last two Dallas wins in this Series have been by double digits so the play is to back them to find some big buckets in the Fourth Quarter to pull clear of this line set.

Sunday 5th May

Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 7 Pick: Out of all of the First Round Series in the NBA PlayOffs, there was a feeling of inevitability about seeing a Game 7 between the Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers.

Seven of the eight Conference Semi Finalists have moved through to the next Round without the need for a decider, but this one is going to have that Game 7 on Sunday after the Orlando Magic made it six straight wins for the home team on Friday evening.

They covered the mark after a meaningless three pointer was missed at the buzzer by the Cleveland Cavaliers, but it was another close game following the one point win for the Cavaliers in Game 5. Donovan Mitchell was huge for Cleveland, despite not looking at 100%, but he was not supported enough and the Cavaliers might be a touch concerned about their top player and what he has left in the tank.

Being back at home will help considering the impact of the role players at home compared with on the road.

The same can be said for the Magic, albeit from a negative stance, with the team not nearly as effective in their three road games as they have been at home. Momentum is with Orlando having won three of the last four games and only just coming up short in Game 5 on the road, but this is a young core of players lacking post-season experience and that could be telling.

Jarrett Allen has missed the last two games and his return will be very important for Cleveland as they look to fend off the opponent they 'wanted' to face in the First Round having allowed themselves to tank on the final day of the regular season. The Number 1 Seeded Boston Celtics will be rested and waiting in the wings for whoever comes through, but there feels like a bit more pressure on the Cleveland shoulders with another First Round exit likely leading to significant off-season decisions to be made.

In recent times, the favourite has tended to prevail in these First Round Game 7s, although those teams are only 6-10-1 against the spread when going 13-4 straight up.

Cleveland are unsurprisingly the favourites, but the line has dipped a couple of points from where it stood in Game 1 and Game 2 and that underlines the feeling that the Orlando Magic have been the better team.

Backing the Magic to finally get over the line on the road looks to be the right decision as the First Round concludes on Sunday.

SIDE NOTE- the Conference Semi Finals begin on Saturday, the day before the First Round is concluded. The first selection and thread for Game 1-4 can be read here.

MY PICKS: 30/04 New York Knicks - 4 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

30/04 Orlando Magic + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

30/04 Indiana Pacers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

01/05 Boston Celtics - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

01/05 Dallas Mavericks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

02/05 Milwaukee Bucks + 8 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

02/05 New York Knicks + 3.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

03/05 Orlando Magic - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

03/05 Dallas Mavericks + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

05/05 Orlando Magic + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

First Round Update: 22-17, + 3.27 Units (38 Units Staked, + 8.61% Yield)