Even now, it is very difficult to look past defending Champions Denver Nuggets and the team with the best record in the regular season Boston Celtics, but PlayOff Series can build the pressure and the likes of the Oklahoma City Thunder really impressed through the First Round.
The exit of the Milwaukee Bucks has to be considered a positive for the Celtics and it does feel that their place in the NBA Finals is very much in their own hands- if Boston play well, they will be almost impossible to beat over a best of seven setting, but games are played on the court and not on paper and there was a similar inevitability about them last year before the Eastern Conference Finals defeat to the Miami Heat.
As with the First Round of the PlayOffs, the Conference Semi Final Picks will be placed in two threads with the first four games of the Series placed in this one.
NBA Conference Semi Final Picks- Games 1-4 (May 4th-13th)
Saturday 4th May
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Game 1 Pick: Losing at the Denver Nuggets last month meant the Minnesota Timberwolves fell behind in the race to secure the top Seed in the Western Conference. The expectation was that the win for the Nuggets would mean the defending Champions secured the top Seed instead, but they suffered a surprising loss meaning they entered the PlayOffs as the Number 2 Seed.
It also means that the Nuggets and Timberwolves were in the same half of the Bracket on the way to the NBA Finals and this is perhaps a match up that the latter were hoping for more than Denver may have been.
The four regular season games were split with two wins apiece, and it should be noted that the two Minnesota wins were in blow out fashion, while the Denver Nuggets had to fight and claw for their two wins.
Ultimately the PlayOff experiences of the Denver Nuggets has to be a factor in this best of seven Series, as will the fact that they have the home court advantage.
They might not have been at their best in the First Round, but some of that may have been down to the Nuggets wanting to hide what they want to do the further they get into the PlayOffs. Beating the Los Angeles Lakers has been very common for the Nuggets over the last fourteen months and so they will have felt they did not have to be at their best, although the healthy of Jamal Murray is a potential concern.
On the other hand, Minnesota were in very strong form as they swept past the Phoenix Suns and the Timberwolves have long been making moves to be competitive against the Denver Nuggets, the leading team in the Western Conference. They have shown they can do that in the regular season and the Timberwolves may have enough Defensive intensity to give the Offensive players a chance to keep this one close.
Favourites in Game 1 of the Conference Semi Finals are just 4-20-1 against the spread when asked to lay fewer than 6 points and the Minnesota Timberwolves can come out strong in this Series. Winning outright will not be easy for any team visiting Denver, but the Timberwolves have done that in the regular season and the momentum with which they beat the Phoenix Suns in the First Round can certainly see them ride to a very competitive Game 1 performance against the defending Champions on Saturday.
Monday 6th May
Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks Game 1 Pick: Both of these teams came through testing First Round Series against two Eastern Conference rivals that entered the season with big expectations.
Injuries hurt the Milwaukee Bucks at a bad time, while the Philadelphia 76ers are perhaps looking to make a real move towards a NBA Championship in twelve months time, but take nothing away from the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks who had to come through in six games.
Both will now feel a big opportunity is in front of them when they meet in this Eastern Conference Semi Final Series, although the Boston Celtics remain red-hot favourites to represent the East in the NBA Finals.
That is a matter for another day and the focus here is for the Pacers and Knicks to make a strong start when Game 1 is played at Madison Square Garden on Monday.
The Knicks are likely going to be favourites for the Series with their grizzled team being pumped forward by Jalen Brunson's huge PlayOff output. However, the Indiana Pacers have won two of three regular season games against the Knicks, including winning at The Garden in February, and this is a team that has plenty of Offensive firepower across the starting line up and bench to believe they can challenge New York.
Home favourites in Game 1 of the Semi Final Series have not had things all of their own way in recent times and the Denver Nuggets have already dropped the first game in their Series. The line has proved to be a key indicator as to how Game 1 is played out, but it is dropping as far as the host New York Knicks are concerned and the Indiana Pacers certainly look capable of keeping this one closer than expected.
Much will depend on how effective the Pacers are at closing down the shot window for those not called Jalen Brunson.
If they can do that, Indiana may have enough Offensively to keep the scoreboard ticking over and eventually this may lead to a narrow, tight, competitive game. It should come down to late in the Fourth Quarter, but the Pacers have shown they can match up well with this New York team and they may be worth backing with the points in Game 1 of this Conference Semi Final Series.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: Two of the four Conference Semi Final Series will not have gotten underway when the Denver Nuggets look to rally against the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 2.
The defending Champions have not been finding their best form in the PlayOffs, but were still able to ease to a 4-1 win over the Los Angeles Lakers in the First Round. However, they were well aware that they needed to be better when facing the Minnesota Timberwolves, but the Nuggets were not able to raise their game as they were well beaten at home in Game 1.
For the Timberwolves, it has continued a smooth start to the post-season with five straight wins and none of those have been particularly competitive. For much of this season it was clear that Minnesota were ready to take recent experiences and make the leap forward, but not many would have tipped up Anthony Edwards to have moved his game to the level where he has it right now.
It was his 43 points that sparked the Game 1 win, although Edwards will point out to some strong support from his team-mates as the Timberwolves eased to the victory. Adjustments have to be expected from the Denver Nuggets, especially in what feels like a very important spot before travelling to Minnesota to play Game 3 and 4.
Jamal Murray's calf issue is becoming a real concern and you can see it is limiting his impact, while also putting a bit more pressure on Nikola Jokic. The latter is likely going to be named regular season MVP again, but Jokic will want to be a bit more efficient than he was in Game 1 having scored 32 points, but only after throwing up 25 shots.
If Murray continues to be limited, some of the other players will have to step up for the Nuggets who found themselves in an early hole in the opening game. A faster start will be key and you have to expect much better from the defending Champions.
Home teams in Game 2 of the Conference Semi Finals have really put on a clinic in recent times and they are 11-1 against the spread over the last three seasons. Those favoured by fewer than 7 points as hosts in Game 2 have put together a 16-4 run against the spread, while those who lost their previous game and are then playing at home have bounced back with a 19-8 record against the spread since The Bubble.
The Timberwolves do match up well with Denver and may feel they have a big opportunity to take a firm grip on this Series, but there may also be a feeling that they have done their job by at least splitting the first two on the road. With adjustments made for Anthony Edwards, the Denver Nuggets can at least bounce back and earn a win and a cover.
Tuesday 7th May
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick: They have been amongst the favourites to win the NBA Championship all season, but the Boston Celtics have moved to the top of the queue and are just evens to pick up the title in June. It is going to build a bit more pressure on a core of players that know they will be considered 'failures' if they are not able to finally help the Celtics become NBA Champions again, and that may ultimately be the only factor that holds them back.
On paper the Celtics have looked the best team all season and they produced a dominant win over the Miami Heat in the First Round to avenge the Eastern Conference Finals defeat from last year.
They are now well rested ahead of the Conference Semi Final Series, while the opponent has just finished off a First Round Series needing a Game 7 victory at home.
The Cleveland Cavaliers looked to be heading out of the PlayOffs in the First Round for a second consecutive season when trailing in the first half of that Game 7 against the Orlando Magic, but did enough to rally. Home advantage proved to be the key in a Series where all seven games were won by the host, but this is a significant upgrade when it comes to challenges being faced.
Jarrett Allen has missed three games in a row and could have to sit again, while Donovan Mitchell is playing through an injury as he continues to lead the team. Some may feel that the Cavaliers have nothing to lose in this Series as the significant underdog, but making this competitive might be considered a success at this point.
The Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis, but they will feel they still have the depth to cover his absence with the hope he will be back for the Eastern Conference Finals.
Being rested might have slowed some of the rhythm, but Cleveland are going to have to overcome the historical trend of winning a Game 7 and then going into the next Series- those teams have tended to be on the losing side of Game 1 of the next Series, while both home favourites in Game 1 of the Conference Semi Final Series have tended to be the ones likely to cover.
There is no doubt that this is a huge spread, but Cleveland were blown out in two of their three road losses against the Orlando Magic in the First Round. All four Boston wins over Miami were by at least 14 point margins in the First Round and the feeling is that the Celtics might be able to pull clear in the second half of this one against a banged up and potentially fatigued opponent.
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 Pick: Jason Kidd has signed an extension to Coach the Dallas Mavericks moving forward and his team just fought through a First Round Series with the veteran loaded Los Angeles Clippers. The finishing touches on that Series were produced in Game 6 and the Mavericks have benefited from being given a bit of time to rest and recuperate ahead of a massive Conference Semi Final Series against the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference.
This rest period is key with Luka Doncic feeling his knee and admitting that he is fighting through the pain in the PlayOffs. The top Mavericks player has stated that he would have been resting and sitting out games in the regular season with the same issue and Doncic's health is going to be a key factor within this Series.
Tim Hardaway Jr was also banged up in the First Round, but the rest looks to have done him good and he should be suited up for Game 1. However, the Mavericks have lost a couple of key contributors with injuries suffered in the First Round and the depth of this Dallas team is going to be tested.
Experience may be something the Mavericks feel they can use to their advantage when preparing to face the Oklahoma City Thunder who have a young team that is breaking new ground.
However, any hope that the top Seed in the Western Conference may slip in the PlayOffs may have faded a little bit after the Thunder crushed the New Orleans Pelicans in the First Round. The feeling is that there is still more to come from this young team who have moved into third favourites to win the NBA Championship.
Oklahoma City will know they got the better of the Dallas Mavericks in three of the four regular season games, although the last of those was when the Mavericks were resting starters. Even so, the Thunder have that mental edge and they will feel they have the enthusiasm and the match ups on the court that should swing this Series in their own favour.
Small home favourites in Game 1 of the Conference Semi Final Series have tended to struggle to cover and we have seen that twice already in this post-season when the Minnesota Timberwolves and Indiana Pacers covered as smallish road underdogs.
That is something to keep in mind, but this Oklahoma City team may be able to just hassle the slightly banged up star player for the Dallas Mavericks and try and force Luka Doncic to get others to win the game. Kyrie Irving is capable, but the Mavericks will go as far as that tandem can carry them and this Thunder team may have the depth and energy to come through with a win and cover in Game 1.
Wednesday 8th May
Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks Game 2 Pick: There were one or two controversial calls at the end of Game 1 which has left the Indiana Pacers frustrated as they were narrowly beaten by the New York Knicks. They had their chances to steal away home court, which would have added to the frustration levels, but there is no time to overthink matters and the Pacers will be looking to respond.
Adjustments have to be made when Game 2 is played at The Garden on Wednesday- the Pacers will want to find a way to get more out of Tyrese Haliburton who was restricted to just 6 points in Game 1, while the efficient shooting of the Knicks from the three point arc will have to be better managed.
Slowing down Jalen Brunson has been an issue for the teams in recent outings and he once again propelled the New York Knicks, although he was given good support in Game 1 to help overcome the first half deficit and earn the victory.
It was perhaps a surprise that the Knicks used a small rotation in Game 1 with the bench players not having much of an impact in the outcome. You have to imagine they will lean on those players a bit more in Game 2 with just a day of rest between these first two games in New York, while the Knicks will also be keen on making one or two adjustments to improve their Defensive effort.
If they can do that, the Knicks have to be very confident in winning Game 2 and taking a real grip of this Conference Semi Final Series before the move to Indiana. Over the last couple of seasons, New York have been very good at Madison Square Garden in the PlayOffs and so they will believe they can hold serve again.
A bigger question is whether the Knicks will cover in Game 2 having come up short in Game 1.
Hosts have been very strong at home in Game 2 of the Conference Semi Finals in recent years, but the Denver Nuggets fell in that spot on Monday. Teams that have lost on the road and playing again on the road have a 7-20 record against the spread in the last twenty-seven tries and those trends really work against the Indiana Pacers, who put in a huge effort to come up short in the opening game in the Series.
This is a significant spread, but hosts favoured by fewer than 7 points are 16-5 against the spread in Game 2 of the Conference Semi Final Series and this time the play is to back New York to make it 2-0 with a more convincing win than the first.
Thursday 9th May
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: After crushing the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1, the Boston Celtics have only hardened as favourites to win the Eastern Conference.
There was so much to like about the Boston Celtics performance in the 25 point win, but the scary part for opponents is that the team will know there is also some room for improvement.
Jayson Tatum was not at his shooting best and the Celtics are still looking for a way to get their best player going, while they hit just 39% of their three point efforts. Jaylen Brown had a big outing and Derrick White is playing hugely influential and efficient minutes for the Celtics, but more might be ready to come from Tatum as teams perhaps try and lock Brown and White down and leave that much more room for the top player to exploit.
Adjustments will have to be made by the Cleveland Cavaliers if they are even going to make this a competitive Series, but they look to be worn down. Donovan Mitchell emptied the tank in Game 1, but he is clearly not at 100%, while the Cavaliers are really missing Jarrett Allen who was absent for the last game having missed several games at the end of the First Round Series against the Orlando Magic.
The support without Allen has not really been good enough and the Cavaliers have really struggled to compete on the road in the post-season when the role players tend to have a few more difficulties. Losing games is one thing, but Cleveland have suffered big road losses as the Defensive unit have slowed down and the Offensive firepower outside of Donovan Mitchell has remained inconsistent.
Once again the Boston Celtics are a big home favourite and those have not tended to be the best teams to back to cover lines above 8.5 points. However, Boston did that comfortably in Game 1 and even a slightly more efficient three point shooting day will make it very difficult to Cleveland to make enough adjustments to get this one much closer on the scoreboard.
Limited rest time between games does not favour the Cavaliers and teams who have been beaten by 15 or more points are just 7-14 against the spread in the last twenty-one games in that spot in the Conference Semi Finals.
Hosts in Game 2 of the Conference Semi Finals have tended to be more focused when it comes to doing enough to cover the lines set and it is very hard to get in the way of this Boston team, even with the spread moving a couple more points wider than it was in Game 1.
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2 Pick: There is much to admire about the way the Oklahoma City Thunder are able to put their Offensive rhythm together on the court, but this is a young team that is dealing with the PlayOffs as if they have a lot more experience than they actually do.
While the Offensive firepower will make the headlines, the Thunder are priding themselves on the kind of Defensive showings that saw finish amongst the elite in the NBA in the regular season.
PlayOffs do have a different feel, but the Thunder are showing maturity to continue to perform at the level they have and they have yet to give up more than 95 points in any of the five post-season games played. Even that tally was only reached by the Dallas Mavericks in a blowout win for the Thunder in Game 1 and the feeling is that this is going to be a very difficult Series for the Mavericks unless they can get very healthy, very quickly.
Luka Doncic did not want make excuses for his performance in Game 1, but it is clear that he is another superstar playing through the pain to try and lead his team. A 6/19 showing, which included going 1/8 from the three point arc, is not going to cut the mustard for Dallas if they are going to make a run in this Series and they will be hoping a day between games is enough time for Doncic to be much stronger.
It may be a forlorn hope with the Oklahoma City Thunder having the energy and the Defensive qualities to really make things difficult for not only Doncic, but also Kyrie Irving. The latter was more efficient in Game 1, but Dallas may not have the depth to compete with the Thunder if the Number 1 Seed maintains their high Defensive levels, which in turn is sparking them on the Offensive side of the court.
After narrowly winning their opening PlayOff game, the Thunder have rolled in their last two at home and they certainly have the momentum to take a firm grip of this Series.
As mentioned in the Boston Celtics Game 2 preview, teams playing behind a 15 plus point margin of victory have followed up with a very strong covering performance in their next game and the same situation applies for the Thunder. Game 2 hosts also have a strong covering record in recent years in the Conference Semi Final Series, while those favoured by fewer than 7 points have a 16-4 record against the spread in Game 2 of this Round before the Knicks try and beat the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday.
Jason Kidd will make some adjustments and this is not expected to be a blowout again, but the Oklahoma City Thunder have shown they can get out in transition behind strong Defensive performances and that may see them edge past this line to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the Series.
Friday 10th May
New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers Game 3 Pick: The 1990s saw the New York Knicks reach the NBA Finals twice, albeit falling short of a Championship each time, but it has been a long time since this fanbase can be as excited about a team as they can be now. After reaching the Conference Semi Finals last year, the Knicks have rallied for a 2-0 lead in the same Round over the Indiana Pacers and will believe that the development of this team will continue in a positive direction.
However, it has not been perfect for the Knicks over the first few days of this Conference Semi Final Series, despite holding serve twice at Madison Square Garden.
Injuries have really been piling up and the team have lost the likes of Mitchell Robinson and Bojan Bogdanovic for the rest of the season, which means the bench depth is simply not where it once was. To make matters worse, OG Anunoby produced 28 points in 28 minutes in Game 2, but picked up a hamstring injury which means he will be doubtful for Game 3 and potentially longer.
Jalen Brunson missed almost the entirety of the Second Quarter with an injury of his own, but he was able to play through the pain to help the Knicks fight back from a big deficit and beat the Indiana Pacers. Again, you have to wonder how healthy Brunson can be with a day of rest between games and the worry for the New York Knicks is that their starters are having to play significant minutes already.
That feels unsustainable for the duration of the PlayOffs, but the Knicks have to be so proud of the way they have been able to dictate whatever they have wanted to do on the Offensive side of the court. Doing the same on the road compared with at home is the challenge for the team and New York will have to expect a big reaction from the Indiana Pacers, who have felt hard done by when it comes to late game officiating.
Head Coach Rick Carlisle did not hide his displeasure at the end of Game 2 and the Pacers will feel they should have taken at least one of the first two games. There wasn't much wrong with Indiana Offensively in Game 2 and they have a deeper rotation than the New York Knicks with key contributions coming off the bench, but the Pacers know they need to make adjustments Defensively to try and slow down this Knicks attack.
Being back at home will help and Carlisle has put some pressure on the referees by suggesting there has been some 'big market bias' at play in the first two games. The Pacers have won all three PlayOff games played here and the last two have been blowout wins, while those teams coming off a loss in the Conference Semi Finals and then playing at home have been strong to back when it comes to the betting window.
Game 3 hosts have bounced back to produce a 6-2 record against the spread over the last couple of seasons and so the Indiana Pacers will be feeling they can get the better of a short-handed opponent. This may feel like the game in which the Knicks perhaps take a breath before pushing again and the Indiana Pacers may be able to win and cover at home to halve the deficit in the Series.
Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 Pick: After coming up short in Game 1, the expectation was that the Denver Nuggets would just remind people why they are the defending Champions.
Instead, the blowout in Game 2 puts the Champs in a position where they might not be able to return home during this Series as they look to at least split the two games to be played in Minnesota.
This looks a big challenge against a Timberwolves team that have had all of the answers on both sides of the court and who have won all six PlayOff games with the closest margin of victory being 6 points. Four of those six wins have been blowout victories and the Timberwolves will be playing at home with the confidence of believing that they have shown they match up as well with the Denver Nuggets as they look to do on paper.
Nikola Jokic was awarded the regular season MVP again, but he has been massively contained in the first two games and the Nuggets need to find a way to release him. The Timberwolves are harassing Jokic into poor shots and he is just 15/38 in the first two games from the field, while the supporting cast are not producing efficiently enough for Minnesota to have to leave Nikola Jokic.
One of the big issues has been the injury that Jamal Murray is playing through and he had a terrible Game 2.
At this point of the season, Murray is not going to get a lot better and so the likes of Michael Porter Jr, Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have much more pressure on their shoulders. Shooting the three ball well enough has been a massive problem for the Nuggets through the PlayOffs and while it was too much for the Los Angeles Lakers, the Minnesota Timberwolves are showing why they are a different prospect.
Minnesota are doing what they have all season and they have shown a real depth in the rotation with players coming off the bench and really pushing them forward. Anthony Edwards may be the star, but his role players are producing around him and the Timberwolves have shown a huge intensity Defensively which has sparked them on the Offensive side of the court.
Hosts in Game 3 have been on a solid two season tear and the Timberwolves certainly have momentum behind them.
It would be foolish to write off the defending Champins, but the Denver Nuggets will feel they are already behind the black ball in this Series. Winning Game 3 is almost imperative considering no NBA team has managed to win a best of seven from 0-3 down, but it will need a significant change in fortunes for that to happen.
At least the Nuggets have had a bit more time to prepare with Game 3 being played after three rest days following Game 2, but even then, Jamal Murray is unlikely to be at full strength and the Timberwolves can keep marching forward.
Saturday 11th May
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Pick: A remarkable display of three point shooting helped the Dallas Mavericks edge past the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 2 to level this Conference Semi Final Series. Backing that up over a long Series is going to be tough, but the Mavericks will return home for the next two games with a big chance to take control of the Series.
The Thunder will have been disappointed by the fact that the role players made such an impact for the Mavericks, while they were not able to contain Luka Doncic nearly as well as they did in Game 1.
There will be adjustments made by Oklahoma City, but they may have big decisions to make if the Dallas role players start Game 3 as hot as they finished in Game 2. If those players are hitting their shots at such an efficient rate again, the Thunder may have to sap off the likes of Kyrie Irving and Doncic, but in turn that may free up the top two players for the Number 5 Seed.
It is something that will be discussed before the Thunder make the relatively short journey to Dallas for Game 3 on Saturday.
When the three point shot is landing, it makes it that much more difficult for teams to get out in transition and that may have contributed to the struggles that Oklahoma City had Offensively. Instead of facing a Dallas Defensive unit scrambling backwards, they were facing a set unit and that saw the Thunder's three point shooting dip in Game 2 from the output of the first game in this Series.
Picking a winner in Game 3 looks tough with the Dallas Mavericks down as small home favourites.
Instead the focus may be on the total point line, which has moved up by a couple of points from Game 2- the feeling is that the Mavericks will not be able to hit the three pointers nearly as efficiently as they did last time out, while the 'under' is 16-8 in the last twenty-four Game 3s played in the Conference Semi Final Series before this season.
You do have to respect how well these two teams can play Offensively, but they are also competitive Defensive units and the adjustments made in the shift from Oklahoma City to Dallas may contribute to this total points line being a point or two high for the teams to combine and surpass.
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 3 Pick: Much like Game 2 of the First Round Series against the Miami Heat, the Boston Celtics were beaten by a heavy dose of three point shooting, while their own shooters just struggled to make the impact expected.
And much like that Series, there will be no considerable panic inside the Boston locker room as they bid to regain home court advantage when visiting the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3 of this Conference Semi Final Series on Saturday.
Donovan Mitchell was in bullish mood after the win on Thursday and admitted 'whatever it takes' to win a game and protect home court is what the Cleveland Cavaliers have to put in. They only had two more three pointers in Game 2 compared with Game 1, but there is no doubting the improved efficiency between those games, and the sprinkling of luck of the bounce that seemed to go Cleveland's way.
Backing that up in Game 3 is the key, but a big reaction from the Boston Celtics has to be expected.
Jayson Tatum has yet to really get going in the post-season, but that has not been an issue when the rest of the squad have been producing at the level they have been. In Game 2, Tatum's struggles were clearer to see when the Celtics hit 8 three pointers compared with the 18 they put through the net in the first game of the Series.
Throughout the course of this season, we have only seen the Celtics prove time after time that efforts like Game 2 are an exception and they showed that in the First Round Series too. Expecting the Cavaliers to be as dominant from the three point line and the Boston Celtics to struggle as much as they did with good looks in Game 2 is perhaps asking too much and the Celtics can respond by taking back home court advantage in strong fashion.
We have not see a big road favourite of 5 or more points in this Round of the NBA PlayOffs for six years, but teams in that spot are 6-1-1 against the spread in the last eight. The Celtics have shown they can wear down opponents with their shooting and the response should be immediate to the setback suffered on Thursday.
Sunday 12th May
New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers Game 4 Pick: Each of the first three games of this Conference Semi Final Series has come to a big moment at the latter end of the Fourth Quarter. The first two went in favour of the New York Knicks behind some controversial officiating, but Game 3 was won by the Indiana Pacers thanks to an unexpected player stepping up and hitting what was ultimately the game winning three pointer with seconds left in a tied game.
Andrew Nembhard had only scored two points during Game 3 and had been 1/7 from the field before launching a deep three pointer as the shot clock wound down. This has breathed new life into the Indiana Pacers after coming through a game that went back and forth throughout the 48 minutes played, but ultimately landed in their favour and halved the deficit in this Series.
The schedule is unrelenting at this time of the post-season and that means a day of rest for the players before they face each other again in Game 4.
OG Anunoby was a big loss for the New York Knicks and his status for Sunday is going to be a huge part of any potential outcome. Since signing with the Knicks, the team have built a very strong record with Anunoby in the lineup and asking Alec Burks and Donte DiVincenzo to shoot as efficiently for a second game in a row might be too much.
The latter is having a big Conference Semi Final Series and is 18/32 from the three point range so there may be more believe in DiVincenzo to maintain current standards. However, Jalen Brunson is clearly playing through the pain and Josh Hart continues to play huge minutes, which is not ideal for the Knicks unless they can close this Series very quickly.
Indiana are using a deeper rotation and they will feel the bench underperformed, even if the team won Game 3 when all is said and done. The Pacers will be looking for a bit more out of those role players having leaned on their top three names to carry them through until Nembhard made the biggest impact of the night.
The Pacers have momentum and teams that have won Game 3 have followed up by going 13-5 against the spread in Game 4. There is another trend going against the New York Knicks in Game 4 with teams leading a Conference Semi Final Series being 11-21-1 against the spread in this spot and the limited time to recover may just favour a deeper rotation being used by the Indiana Pacers.
Nothing has been easy for either team in this Series, but the momentum cannot be ignored after winning Game 3 in the manner they did and Indiana may just be able to head to Madison Square Garden with this one tied up at 2-2 with a win and cover.
Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 Pick: After winning both road games to open this Conference Semi Final Series, the Minnesota Timberwolves returned to a party atmosphere ahead of Game 3.
However, getting too far ahead and dismissing the obvious threats of the Denver Nuggets, the defending Champions, is a mistake and the blowout win for the road team might just have reminded everyone that two more games still need to be won to eliminate them.
Jamal Murray looked to be out of sorts with an injury, but returned to form at a very good time and he was the spark that helped the Nuggets dominate Game 3. Efficient shooting makes it very difficult for the Timberwolves to get out in transition, when their Offensive decision making is most effective, and that all came together for Denver in the Game 3 win.
Nikola Jokic was as expected, but Murray's return to his best made it easier for the role players to find the open spaces on the court. This is key for the Denver Nuggets and they will be looking to ride the momentum into Game 4 knowing full well that teams leading the Conference Semi Final Series have struggled in this spot in recent times and those that won Game 3 have tended to come out on top in Game 4 too.
The Timberwolves will have been frustrated by their overall level as they were beaten in the PlayOffs for the first time in 2024 and this is going to be a real test of their character. The spread has dropped a couple of points from Game 3, which underlines the respect the oddsmakers have for the Nuggets, while we are going to learn a lot more about Minnesota in seeing how they respond to a first setback.
Ultimately they cannot have lost all belief seeing as they have a 2-1 lead in the Series and a win on Sunday would go a long way to making the Western Conference Finals.
Anthony Edwards was contained in Game 3, but the Timberwolves will be looking to make the adjustments that may just free him up, while the role players have to perform better than they did. The bench has been important for Minnesota, but they did not get the same production in the last game as they have in the first two and so there is going to be some work to do in order to get back on track.
Recent trends certainly favour the Denver Nuggets and it is always hard to oppose a team with the obvious qualities the defending Champions have.
However, this Timberwolves team is better than what they showed in Game 3 and the Conference Semi Final Series this season have seen teams bouncing back from blowout defeats. The same can be expected of the Minnesota Timberwolves as long as they make a more intense start to Game 4 and they can win and cover at home, even as a smaller home favourite.
Monday 13th May
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 4 Pick: Much like the First Round Series win over the Miami Heat, the Boston Celtics just showed their Championship mettle to bounce back from a disappointing Game 2 loss with a crushing Game 3 win. The final margin may 'only' have been 13 points, but it was a game in which Boston dominated in the second half and has left the Cleveland Cavaliers scrambling for answers again.
Once again Donovan Mitchell powered the Cavaliers, but they were always unlikely to be as efficient from the three point arc as they were in Game 2. The players outside of Mitchell had issues finding their consistency and ultimately that is not going to get it done if the Boston Celtics are even having an average shooting day from three point range.
Jayson Tatum has perhaps not needed to dominate in the post-season right now, but he might have felt Game 3 was an important moment to remind everyone that he is the best player on the court. His 33 points were backed up by Jaylen Brown's 28 points and this time it was Jrue Holiday who was the role player that made the big plays around the top two names.
There is still room for Offensive improvement from the Boston Celtics, but this is a team that finished with the best record in the NBA thanks to their Defensive qualities too. It is those that are going to make it very difficult for Cleveland to win this Series, although the Cavaliers might receive the boost of having Jarrett Allen return having been close to being cleared ahead of Game 3.
We only have a day of rest between Game 3 and Game 4, but that may be enough for Allen to make his return and try and give Cleveland the kind of spark they need. The reality is that Cleveland are going to have to find the lights out shooting of Game 2 at least three more times to win this Series, but that is a big ask of this team and the manner of the defeat on Saturday will have just reminded the team of the kind of mountain they need to climb.
As mentioned in other selections, teams that have won Game 3 have a strong record in Game 4 of the Conference Semi Final Series.
The Celtics win and cover also means big road favourites of a least 5 points are now 7-1-1 against the spread in the last nine tries in the Conference Semi Finals and Boston are certainly capable of taking complete control of the Series by winning again in Cleveland on Monday.
Taking away Donovan Mitchell looks unlikely and not something Boston will concern themselves with, but they will continue to attack the role players and force them into bad shots. If they can do that, Boston are never that far away from putting on a strong Offensive clinic and they can win and cover this line for a second road game in a row.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Pick: The less than 100% status of Luka Doncic had his status being listed as Questionable to suit up for the last couple of games. Each time he has been willing to play through the pain, but the most exciting factor for the Dallas Mavericks is that they have been able to support Doncic and ensure the team is leading this Conference Semi Final Series going into Game 4.
No one has scored more points for the Dallas Mavericks than PJ Washington in the last two games as they have moved 2-1 ahead of the Number 1 Seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.
Offensive Rebounding was a vital advantage for the Mavericks in the Game 3 win, while this young Thunder team have to make adjustments to just show a bit more consistency from the three point arc. They should be largely happy with what they have been able to achieve Defensively in this Series, but the Thunder know it will be easier to make stops if they can prevent buckets in quick transition and also prevent those Offensive boards that can make it very difficult to reset.
Picking a winner does not look easy with the Mavericks still going into this one as a narrow favourite, having been in the same position in the 5 point win on Saturday.
The narrow lean may be with the Dallas Mavericks considering how well Game 3 winners have performed in Game 4 of the Conference Semi Final Series of recent times. However, those leading a Series have not played that well in this middle game of a best of seven and the spread is one that is narrow enough to make a case for either side.
Instead it may be best to go back to the same well as Game 3 and look for this Game 4 to fall below the total points like set.
It should be noted that the line has dropped considerably between games, but these two teams know they will go as far as the strong Defensive schemes can take them. Two of the three games would have fallen below the current line total and it still looks a touch higher than it perhaps should be in a pivotal game in this big Series.
MY PICKS: 04/05 Minnesota Timberwolves + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
06/05 Indiana Pacers + 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
06/05 Denver Nuggets - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
07/05 Boston Celtics - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
07/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
08/05 New York Knicks - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
09/05 Boston Celtics - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
09/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
10/05 Indiana Pacers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
10/05 Minnesota Timberwolves - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
11/05 Dallas Mavericks-Oklahoma City Thunder Under 219.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
11/05 Boston Celtics - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
12/05 Indiana Pacers - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
12/05 Minnesota Timberwolves - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
13/05 Boston Celtics - 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
13/05 Dallas Mavericks-Oklahoma City Thunder Under 215.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Conference Semi Final Update: 9-7, + 1.23 Units (16 Units Staked, + 7.69% Yield)
First Round: 22-17, + 3.27 Units (38 Units Staked, + 8.61% Yield)
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