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Wednesday 29 May 2024

French Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2024 (Thursday 30th May)

It has been an incredibly wet day in Paris and more bad weather is to come on Day 5 at the tournament, which really could play havoc on the schedule.

The organisers will be hoping for wider pockets of clear weather to try and get as many of the Second Round matches through, especially with the Third Round scheduled to begin on Friday.


Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 games v Miomir Kecmanovic: He has not always had much love for the clay or the grass courts, but Daniil Medvedev has shown he has the grit and determination to produce big results at the French Open and Wimbledon.

Last year was a disappointment considering he had won the big title in Rome, but Medvedev is back in Paris and will be hoping to fly under the radar early on with the focus on Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.

It took four sets to get past Dominik Koepfer in the First Round, but it is a solid win for Daniil Medvedev who had a relatively unspectacular build up to the second Grand Slam of the season.

Next up is Miomir Kecmanovic, who is very capable of upsetting the very best players on the Tour when he is able to put his tennis together. Finding that consistency has been tougher and perhaps the main reason this player from Serbia has not been able to crack the top 20 of the World Rankings like others from his nation in recent years.

The clay court season was pretty disappointing as far as Kecmanovic is concerned, but a solid First Round win over Thiago Monteiro will have him feeling better about his tennis. Miomir Kecmanovic was beaten by the same opponent in Rome, but he does hold a win over Casper Ruud on the red dirt in the lead up to the French Open and that will give him confidence, and Daniil Medvedev something to think about.

However, it has not been a good match up for Kecmanovic who has lost all three previous matches against Daniil Medvedev and without causing too many problems either. This is the first meeting in sixteen months, but Medvedev will fondly remember beating this opponent in three very comfortable sets at Roland Garros two years ago.

We should have a more competitive match than that under a likely roof with poor weather forecasted, but Daniil Medvedev can still come out on top and cover the spread set for the Second Round match.


Casper Ruud - 6.5 games v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: There was nothing to really worry Casper Ruud in the First Round and he made relatively easy work of his opponent just days after winning the Geneva title. He has reached the Final in back to back years at the French Open, but the last player to beat Ruud who was not called Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal will be standing on the other side of the net in this Second Round match.

He only missed out on a Seeding spot so this might be as tough a match as Casper Ruud could face when going up against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

The Spaniard is well versed on playing on the clay courts, but confidence has to have been dented by his 1-4 record on the surface leading into Paris. The First Round win was expected, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina perhaps made it a touch more difficult than it should have been and further underlines the feeling that he is playing without a lot of confidence.

However, it makes him dangerous that there is 'nothing to lose' and there is no doubting that Davidovich Fokina can produce some top clay court tennis.

We know Alejandro Davidovich Fokina can return very well, but his serve has really not been up to scratch and that could be exploited by Casper Ruud.

The expectation is that there will be competitive games and one, perhaps two sets could be very tight, but you have to lean towards the more confident Casper Ruud to get this done. He will remember losing to Davidovich Fokina at Roland Garros, but this is a good opportunity to earn revenge behind a strong win.


Elina Svitolina - 4.5 games v Diane Parry: These days Elina Svitolina is treated like an honourable Frenchwoman having married Gael Monfils, but the crowd might be a little more split than usual when the Ukrainian takes to the courts of Roland Garros.

A loud, vocal support helped Elina Svitolina come from behind to beat Karolina Pliskova in the First Round, but there will be plenty supporting Diane Parry in this Second Round match that may have to be played under the roof.

It will certainly help the atmosphere grow that much more, and the 21 year old Frenchwoman will be looking for revenge having lost in her home country against Elina Svitolina last week in Strasbourg. Diane Parry also had to come from a set behind to beat a compatriot in the First Round so she may be ready for the split loyalties the crowd will be faced with and instead has to focus on her tennis.

Prior to this tournament, Diane Parry had been struggling for form with a single win on the clay courts and so there is a significant gap to bridge.

She will also gain some confidence from the fact that Elina Svitolina has been struggling for consistency on the red dirt, even if the French Open Quarter Finalist from 2023 has shown how well she can take to this surface.

The strengths of the players might be going up against one another here- Diane Parry may feel her serve can set up a few more easier points, but Elina Svitolina is a very strong return player and that has shown throughout her clay court season.

It was the Elina Svitolina return which won the day when the players met in Strasbourg, but this is expected to be a tough test for the higher Ranked player. Diane Parry has to believe that it won't take much to turn things around in the match up after the defeat last week, but the overriding feeling is that Elina Svitolina will find a way to frank the form in a good looking Second Round match.


Madison Keys - 4.5 games v Mayar Sherif: The American has been more comfortable on the clay courts than you may expect and Madison Keys is certainly capable of having a deep run at the French Open in 2024.

She won the title in Strasbourg last week to build confidence, while runs in Madrid and Rome were both ended by Iga Swiatek, who has been the dominant clay court player on the women's side of the sport for some time.

After winning in the First Round without breaking a sweat, Madison Keys has to expect a bit more of a challenge from Mayar Sherif.

Last year Mayar Sherif reached a career best World Ranking of Number 31, but she is back outside of the top 50 heading into this tournament. Much like Madison Keys, Sherif made easy work of a First Round opponent, while she has reached back to back clay court Finals in the two weeks prior to the start of the French Open.

Losses in those Finals will have hurt, but they have been a part of a strong run of form for Mayar Sherif and that makes her dangerous and to be respected. At her best, the Egyptian can match the serving output that Madison Keys will expect from her own game, but whether Sherif can do that for long enough to win the match is another question altogether.

A competitive set cannot be ruled out, but Madison Keys may be able to then get on top and exert her extra qualities on the match. She has a slightly stronger returning numbers this season and that may be the big difference maker for Keys as she looks to march into the Third Round.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

French Open Update: 6-1, + 7.40 Units (14 Units Staked, + 52.86% Yield)

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