At the time of writing, we have two guaranteed Game 6s to be played and by Monday evening there may be a situation where all four Series are going to head into a Game 6 no matter the outcome of the upcoming Game 5.
This is a time where teams are being worn down and the gaps between games have stretched rotations, but the last three potential games of the Conference Semi Finals are given a bit more breathing room. This should help some teams, but the pressure has ramped up ahead of the Conference Finals as the chance of a NBA Championship is felt by the players and fans.
NBA Conference Semi Final Picks- Game 5-7 (May 14th-20th)
Tuesday 14th May
Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks Game 5 Pick: The key point to remember as fans of the New York Knicks is that the blowout loss in Game 4 counts the same as if the team were beaten by a single point... Namely it leads to one game and the Conference Semi Final Series is still tied at 2-2 before shifting back to Madison Square Garden.
There is little doubt that the Knicks looked tired and fatigued as they were punched in the mouth in the First Quarter of Game 4 and never made things competitive. The short rotation has meant the starters have played heavy minutes and the blowout loss might actually have helped the Knicks with the likes of Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart earning more rest than they would have expected.
Overcoming the absence of OG Anunoby has proven to be tough for the Knicks since signing him and the record backs that up. Unfortunately it looks unlikely that Anunoby is going to return to boost the team before Game 5 and the Knicks starters have to find a way to bounce back and slow the obvious momentum picked up by the Indiana Pacers.
After a late three pointer that turned Game 3 in their favour, the Indiana Pacers could not have come out any stronger than they did in Game 4 and they were in control of the outcome from the off. The deeper rotation is keeping the Pacers as fresh as they need to be and that is allowing to use speed and tempo to break down the New York Knicks.
More of the same has to be expected in Game 5, and they have shown they can produce some very efficient basketball at The Garden, even if the Pacers have come up short in both games here in this Series.
Momentum is with the road team, but the New York Knicks will be expecting to bounce back and just have that bit more energy thanks to the blowout defeat in Game 4. This has worked for teams in the Conference Semi Final Series in recent years with teams coming off a Game 4 defeat of more than seven points being 17-6 against the spread in the last twenty-three games in that situation.
Game 4 could not have gone any worse for the Knicks, and there is a feeling this team is wearing down, but they have shown their character all season and a response is expected. The Pacers will shoot the ball well, but they are not a Defensive powerhouse and that will help New York who may just move ahead again in this Series.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Game 5 Pick: This has been a tough Conference Semi Final Series to predict, but the defending Champions Denver Nuggets will only be concerned with how they are playing now.
After dropping both home games to open the Series, the Nuggets have won two in a row as a road underdog to not only level the Conference Semi Final at 2-2, but they will return home as favourites to make it through to the Western Conference Finals.
Home advantage has not meant much in this Series with all four won by the road team, but the momentum is now in favour of the defending Champions. They have found a way to make adjustments Offensively, but have backed that up with continuing ability to step up Defensively and the questions are now being asked about the Minnesota Timberwolves and what they can do to turn things back in their own favour.
Anthony Edwards had a monster Game 4, but he was given little efficient support and ultimately that cost the Timberwolves.
Karl-Anthony Towns is huge for the Timberwolves, but struggled in Game 4 and that will have to change if Minnesota are going to return home later this week and not have to face an elimination game.
At the same time, Minnesota are under some pressure to make adjustments to slow down the Denver Nuggets who have been very good Offensively in back to back wins. Nikola Jokic has been as advertised in the last couple of games, but his efficiency has been helped by the big improvements made by Jamal Murray, who struggled badly in Game 1 and Game 2.
With the top two players on the roster performing to the level hoped, it has made things easier for the role players and that has seen Michael Porter Jr and Aaron Gordon both stepping up. It was Gordon's 27 points in Game 4 that will have made the headlines, especially at 11/12 from the field, and the Nuggets may just feel they have gotten to grip with the Timberwolves and this Series.
Keeping the momentum going at home will be key, but this has been a tough Series for the hosts and the favourites have struggled in Game 5 of the NBA Conference Semi Final Series in recent years. The Nuggets are right to be favoured considering what we have seen in the last couple of games, and the pressure is on Minnesota to make adjustments so the narrow lean has to be with Denver and a potential first favourite cover within this Series.
The Timberwolves have to find a way to make adjustments, but the momentum with the Nuggets is hard to ignore here.
Wednesday 15th May
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: Being without Jarrett Allen has made it very difficult for the Cleveland Cavaliers in this Conference Semi Final Series, but that difficulty increased tenfold when it was announced that Donovan Mitchell would miss Game 4.
Unsurprisingly it led to a comfortable enough win for the Boston Celtics once they got to grips with an unfamiliar line up that was in front of them.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown continue to lead the Celtics and it would be a massive surprise if they are not able to complete the Series win on Wednesday and ensure they are able to earn some rest before the Conference Finals. The two top players on the Boston roster have been key to the two road wins to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the Series and they are huge favourites to win this one on Wednesday with the expectation being that both Mitchell and Allen are going to miss out again.
Adjustments from the Cleveland Cavaliers will be made, but they simply lack the firepower to take on this Boston team and even more so without their two best players on the court. The role players stepped up in Game 4, but that was at home and it is going to be a much different, much more intense atmosphere to overcome as Cleveland look for a second road win in this Conference Semi Final Series.
It looks very hard to do that and the spread underlines the difficulties for the road team.
However, it is a big number and one that could be hard for the Boston Celtics to overcome if the Cleveland Cavaliers continue to play as hard as they have in the last couple of games. The Celtics did blow out the Cavaliers at home in Game 1, and the feeling is that this is another game in this Series which will trends towards the 'over' with the amount of three point shooting expected.
48 of the 94 shots Cleveland took in Game 4 were from the three point distance and they will likely need to do the same here if they are going to earn the upset. The Celtics have not shot the three ball very well in this Series, but they are also a team that will take a lot of those looks and it could lead to a higher scoring game than expected, even when involving two solid Defensive teams.
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 Pick: For all the world it looked like being a 3-1 lead for the Dallas Mavericks as the Fourth Quarter moved into the final minutes of Game 4, but the Oklahoma City Thunder rallied and reminded everyone why they are the Number 1 Seed in the West.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the superstar in the making, but this Thunder team has a very strong, young core, that are a growing after every game in the post-season.
It was SGA who led the way in the comeback against the Mavericks in Game 4, but Dallas are going to feel like they gave it away.
Luka Doncic had a triple-double, but Kyrie Irving offered very little support and it was PJ Washington who once again stepped up to support the top Mavericks player. However, it was not a very good game from Doncic who made just 6/20 shots from the field and who had more Turnovers than made shots at the end of the game.
The Mavericks know they are going to need more from Doncic, who is playing through the pain, but they will also want to see Irving step up having failed to score at least 10 points for the second time in the Series. The first time it was not a concern with Dallas winning easily on the road, but it is after the narrow loss in Game 4, a defeat that pushes the momentum on the side of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
This time Oklahoma City are the big favourite in Game 5, but this might be the third time in a row to back the 'under' play in this Conference Semi Final Series.
Both teams have shown they can be competitive Defensively and the referees seem to be letting the players perform through contact. In three of the four games played in the Series, the teams have finished under the total line set and even the drop in that total has not prevented the teams to continue to dominate on the Defensive side of the court.
Having to play Overtime would almost certainly see this game fly over the total, but if it ends in regulation, the feeling is that the slightly out of sync Offensive units will not be able to combine for enough points to surpass the total line set.
Thursday 16th May
Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 6 Pick: The defending Champions have certainly reminded everyone why they won the Championship last year and why they still have the best player in the NBA on their roster.
Dropping the first two games of a Series, both at home no less, would have dented the confidence of most, but that is not the case for the Denver Nuggets. Instead they have beaten the Minnesota Timberwolves three times in a row and now return to Target Center hoping to book a spot in the Western Conference Finals without having to host another game.
All of the momentum is with the Nuggets who have shown their strength at both sides of the court, while the Minnesota Timberwolves look to be wearing down. Anthony Edwards is a star in the making, but like many others before him, he is learning a valuable lesson about PlayOff Basketball and what it means when the stakes are ramped up.
He did have 18 points in Game 5, but Anthony Edwards took 15 shots to do that.
A bigger adjustment for the team will be trying to find a way to slow down Nikola Jokic, who picked up his MVP award on Tuesday and underlined his status as the best player in the NBA by dominating the Timberwolves in a big win for Denver. 75 points have been scored across the last two games and Jokic was extra special in the Game 5 win having performed without turning the ball over once.
Enough support is being provided by the likes of Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon and the Nuggets have all of the momentum to carry them through to the Western Conference Finals by winning a fourth game in a row.
The underdog is 17-8 against the spread in Game 6 of the Conference Semi Final Series over the last ten years and it is difficult to see what kind of adjustments Minnesota can make to stop the Denver Nuggets after three successive losses.
Being at home should mean the Timberwolves are going to leave it all on the court to try and push a Game 7 across the line this weekend, but Minnesota's Offensive issues have not been cleared up. That means relying on making the stops to stay competitive, but they have had no answer for Nikola Jokic and we may see more of the same on Thursday.
Friday 17th May
New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers Game 6 Pick: One half of the Eastern Conference Finals has been set after the Boston Celtics won their Conference Semi Final Series in the exact same manner as they won their First Round Series.
While the top Seed in the East and the favourite to win the NBA Championship will be resting, Game 6 of the Indiana Pacers-New York Knicks Series takes place on Friday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Home court has proven to be decisive in this Series so far with all five games won by the host, and that means the New York Knicks are leading the Series 3-2. The blowout loss in Game 4 was a concern, but the starters were well rested for Game 5 and the adjustment to the starting line up and bringing in Miles McBride into the five proved to be a very strong move for the Knicks.
They returned the favour to the Pacers by blowing them away in Game 5 and the Knicks will also appreciate the extra day of rest between that game and this one back in Indiana. Instead of one day of rest between games, there has been two clear days and that is so important to a short-handed Knicks team, and that may give them every opportunity to try and close this Series without having to play one more game at Madison Square Garden on Sunday.
OG Anunoby's absence has been keenly felt by the Knicks and he is expected to miss the remainder of this Series, even if he is beginning to get back on the court. Having him return for the Eastern Conference Finals would be a huge boost for the New York Knicks, but no one in this locker room will be looking too far ahead and they will certainly be anticipating a reaction from the Indiana Pacers.
The Pacers couldn't miss in Game 4 to level the Series, but they were also dominant on the boards and that is where the Knicks took over in their Game 5 win. The Indiana role players have been better at home, while Tyrese Haliburton will also have something to prove having scored just 13 points in 33 minutes on the court in what was a surprisingly passive display.
He had scored 55 points across Game 3 and Game 4 and being back on home court should help in what should be a more competitive game than the last two we have seen.
The spread looks to be in a good position for the New York Knicks to make use of the points being given to them, but the lean instead may be on the 'under'.
That total line has dropped a couple of points after the last two blowouts, but you have to believe the Defensive intensity will be higher after a couple of days of rest. The 'under' is on a 9-2 run in Game 6 of the Conference Semi Final Series and it has hit in three in a row in this Series.
Both teams can get very hot from the three point line, which challenges this total line mark, but there is little margin for error at this stage of this Series and so the Defensive focus may take over for both teams after back to back blowouts for the hosts.
Saturday 18th May
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks Game 6 Pick: This has been a really competitive Series and the Dallas Mavericks may feel they have broken the spirit of the young Oklahoma City Thunder, even if they are the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference. However, Game 4 saw the Thunder win here at the American Airlines Center and this Series is far from over right now.
A big effort will be needed and the Thunder will certainly be hoping that Luka Doncic of Game 4 is playing, rather than the Doncic who was smiling and happy in a dominant Game 5 performance. A late block from Luka Doncic turned the game completely in favour of the Mavericks and Dallas will feel they can go as far as their best player can take them.
Once again adjustments will have to be made by the Oklahoma City Thunder, although they may also feel a couple of days of between games will have helped cool down Doncic.
The Thunder will have to be more convincing on the boards and they have to find a way to force others to beat them if they are going to drag this Conference Semi Final Series into a Game 7 decider, like the other Western Conference Semi Final.
They have talented youngsters, but the Mavericks have really picked up their Defensive intensity and worked out a way to cool the Thunder down. That has seen Dallas win three of the last four games and Oklahoma City have not scored more than 101 points in any of the last three.
However, one of those still produced a winning effort thanks to their own Defensive make up and this Game 6 may follow recent trends.
After the Denver-Minnesota Game 6 on Thursday, the 'under' has been a winner in ten of the last twelve Game 6s played in the Conference Semi Finals. Both the Mavericks and Thunder know the importance of keeping things steady on that side of the court and each of the last three in this Series has fallen below the total points line set.
In saying that, it should be noted that the total has moved from 216.5 points in Game 3 down as low as 209 points in some places for this one. This is a considerable drop, but the teams look locked in on the Defensive side of the court and that may show up in the final score on the day.
Picking a winner is not easy with the underdog in good form in recent Game 6s, but Denver failed to cover in such a spot on Thursday and Dallas may feel they have broken the back of this Series by winning Game 5 on the road. Three wins in four games certainly gives them the momentum and the Mavericks might just edge to the victory in another strong Defensive showing.
Sunday 19th May
Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks Game 7 Pick: Home court has proven to be key to this Series and the New York Knicks will be hoping that trend remains strong as we are treated to a Game 7 in this Eastern Conference Semi Final.
The Boston Celtics are going to be big favourites regardless of the winner, but there is some pressure on the Knicks who will be aiming to reach a first Conference Finals in almost twenty-five years. They led 2-0 and 3-2 in the Series and so the expectation will have been raised, while the players may feel a big opportunity was missed if New York are not able to rally one more time.
Losing on Friday evening in Indiana would have hurt and the Pacers will have had some confidence restored, but the mental hurdle here is that they have yet to win at Madison Square Garden in the Series.
After blowing out the Knicks in Game 4, the Pacers could not have arrived at The Garden in any more confident mood than when they did in Game 5, but they were on the wrong end of a blowout on that day.
It is quite clear that the Rebounding is going to be massive and that has been key to the successes of the teams, especially clearing up the three point misses and making sure that second chances can be created. This is something New York have been able to do much more effectively at Madison Square Garden than on the road and this may be the key to the outcome of this one.
Indiana will have confidence and Game 6 winners have had the edge in recent Game 7s in the Conference Semi Finals. That has to offer them something to hold onto as they look for a first win here in this Series, but the players have not quite reached the same level of performance when playing here and that might be the key factor that influences the outcome of this one.
Pressure and tension will be really high on the day as the two teams look to reach the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Knicks can show their ability to bounce back and edge through with a win and cover at home.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Game 7 Pick: It looked like the defending Champions had gotten a full grip on this Conference Semi Final Series, but the Minnesota Timberwolves rallied for a Game 6 win to force this Game 7. Prior to that, the Denver Nuggets had won three in a row and looked like they had been very comfortable with the match up, but they were blown out last time out and have to deal with this 'Win or Go Home' spot.
Being back at home for that one is a benefit and the Nuggets will be looking to make one or two adjustments having failed to contain Anthony Edwards as they had in the previous three wins.
The Timberwolves credited the return of Mike Conley for opening things up for Edwards, but Denver have won games with Conley on the floor for the opponent and it was just a dud performance from the off.
The home crowd and the conditions in Denver will favour the Nuggets, but there is pressure- for example they have played three times here in this Series against the Timberwolves and have lost twice.
However, they did win last time out here and that will help the Nuggets, while they will just make a couple of Defensive adjustments to make sure they are in better shape to deal with what Minnesota bring to the court.
The expectation is that the Denver Nuggets cannot be as poor Offensively as they were in Game 6- they started badly and never really found a way to get things going, but Denver have showed enough prior to Game 6 to believe they can get back on the horse.
They followed a 26 point loss to the Timberwolves in Game 2 to blowout Minnesota by 27 points in their next game. Having a couple of days of rest between games will help Denver refocus and all of their experiences to fall back upon may just see them find a way to get over the line.
Nothing will come easy for Denver, but they have shown they are strong enough Defensively to largely manage what Minnesota bring to the court and the Nuggets can wear them down over the course of this important Game 7.
MY PICKS: 14/05 New York Knicks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
14/05 Denver Nuggets - 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
15/05 Boston Celtics-Cleveland Cavaliers Over 205.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
15/05 Oklahoma City Thunder-Dallas Mavericks Under 213.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
16/05 Denver Nuggets + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
17/05 Indiana Pacers-New York Knicks Under 215.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
18/05 Dallas Mavericks-Oklahoma City Thunder Under 209.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
19/05 New York Knicks - 2 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
19/05 Denver Nuggets - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Conference Semi Final Update: 13-11, + 0.87 Units (24 Units Staked, + 3.63% Yield)
First Round: 22-17, + 3.27 Units (38 Units Staked, + 8.61% Yield)
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