A huge increase in pressure is going to be on the shoulders of the Boston Celtics after the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference and the defending Champions were both eliminated this past weekend.
And barring injuries, it is very difficult to imagine a situation where the Boston Celtics are not able to win at least four games out of seven against any of the teams left.
Take nothing away from a young, improving Minnesota Timberwolves team, or a hot shooting Indiana Pacers.
The Dallas Mavericks have a star player and some decent support around him, but for the majority of this season, the Boston Celtics have looked to have had the perfect balance and they are the strong favourites with a little over a month left of the NBA season.
A poor run for the Conference Semi Final Picks over the last four days has meant the positive returns have not been as great as they were looking before Friday evening. There is some frustration with that in mind, but the Conference Finals are a chance to bounce back.
Out of the four Rounds last season, this was the one with my worst results so this also feels like a personal opportunity to bounce back and look for a much stronger return all around.
The good news is that we do have a winning return from both the First Round and Conference Semi Final Rounds, but more work is to be done.
NBA Conference Finals Picks 2024- Games 1-4 (May 21st-28th)
Tuesday 21st May
Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick: The long time Eastern Conference favourites have made their way into the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Boston Celtics might be a little surprised about the opponent in front of them.
That was the case twelve months ago when the Number 8 Seeded Miami Heat had made their way through to the Conference Finals, but the Boston Celtics soon found themselves 3-0 down in that Series and ultimately were not able to complete the comeback in a 4-3 Series defeat.
It has fuelled the Boston Celtics season and they are not lacking for any motivation.
Out of the four teams remaining, the Celtics are strong favourites to win the NBA Championship, although that does mean the players have to show they can handle the pressure. They will be expected to be without Kristaps Porzingis in the first two games at home, but the Celtics are well rested after beating the Cleveland Cavaliers in five games and they will have been focused on preparing for whichever team made it through from the other Series.
In saying that, most would have expected that to be the New York Knicks, but the injury bug really hurt the Number 2 Seeded team and it is the Indiana Pacers who have surprised all by reaching the Eastern Conference Finals. The Number 6 Seeded Pacers have already beaten the Milwaukee Bucks and the Game 7 win on the road over the New York Knicks will have given them a huge boost in confidence.
However, beating an injury hit opponent as they have done in the first two Rounds and now being able to knock off the top Seed in the Conference is a very different test. The Pacers will feel they have the depth and the shooting to stick with the Boston Celtics, but there is going to be a natural comedown after the levels reached in the Game 7 win on the road, especially with just a day of rest between games.
Rick Carlisle will need to make some big adjustments ahead of this Conference Finals, the first time he is Head Coaching in this Round since leading the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Championship in 2011. A lot of First Round exits or failing to reach the PlayOffs have been on his record since then, but Carlisle may feel his team have some destiny surrounding them having benefited from some of the uncontrollable factors like injury.
His team have given the Boston Celtics something to think about in the regular season, but Game 1 is at the TD Garden and a rested host might be able to control the Pacers.
We have become used to seeing Boston being asked to cover big spreads, but teams in the last couple of years in the Conference Finals have really struggled to deal with being asked to lay anything above 5 points. That was the case last year when those favourites were 0-7 against the spread in this Round, while home teams are 5-3 against the spread in Game 1 having seen both hosts fail to cover this time last year.
This should be a closer Series for the Boston Celtics than the last two have been, but they look rested and ready to open with a strong win.
Wednesday 22nd May
Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 1 Pick: This has to be considered a surprising Western Conference Finals, despite the obvious improvements that both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks have made in the off-season and through the regular season.
Coming through a Game 7 against the defending Champions, the team that Minnesota have been built to beat, will have been a huge boost for the Timberwolves. They will have to overcome some history in the Western Conference Finals as teams that have played a Game 7 in a previous Series have struggled when facing an opponent that has not been pushed the distance.
They will hold home court in the Western Conference Finals, and being at home in Game 1 has to be an important factor for the Timberwolves. The Series starting on Wednesday will have given Minnesota a bit more time to get themselves mentally prepared for the Western Conference Finals and this is something that should help.
Minnesota are facing the surprising Dallas Mavericks who have beaten a couple of top four Seeds already on their way to the Western Conference Finals twelve months after failing to even finish in the top ten.
The victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder will have really helped the confidence of the Mavericks, especially considering the manner in which they won a couple of games in that Semi Final Series. Luka Doncic will be a key for Dallas and he should be grateful for the little bit of rest that he has been afforded between Series, but the Mavericks may need a bit more out of the likes of Kyrie Irving if they are going to reach the NBA Finals.
These teams met four times in the regular season and it was the Timberwolves who won three of those, all by a comfortable margin too. The pressure of the Western Conference Finals is going to be felt by all involved in this one and that may make games that much more competitive, but Minnesota might be able to ride the momentum of their Game 7 win over the Denver Nuggets on Sunday and through into this Game 1.
They do look to match up well with the Dallas Mavericks and Anthony Edwards is growing as a force right in front of our eyes. Home teams had been starting well in the Conference Finals before 2023 and the Timberwolves can win and cover to open this one.
Thursday 23rd May
Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: It was a special Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals in 2024, but this time the Boston Celtics managed to find a way to overcome the resistance of the underdog. Twelve months ago they were not able to do that against the Miami Heat, at least not early in the Series, but Boston have shown how much they have grown by forcing Overtime and then beating the Indiana Pacers to take a 1-0 lead.
Without a doubt the key moment was very late in the Fourth Quarter as Tyrese Haliburton turned the ball over with the Pacers up by three points and with 10 seconds left on the clock.
Even then, the failure to foul and instead allow Jaylen Brown to hit a game tying three pointer has been criticised, including by LeBron James. Head Coach Rick Carlisle has made it clear that the Pacers were going to foul, but Brown had found a spot on the court where the three pointer was on and risking a foul at that moment would have been a mistake.
No matter what, the Pacers will know they let Game 1 get away from them despite a stellar night shooting the ball again and with the Boston Celtics not producing the free-flowing Offensive output we have come to expect from them.
Bouncing back immediately is going to be a challenge for the Pacers- teams that have been involved in a close defeat in the Conference Finals have found it tough to be competitive again in the next game, while Game 1 winners at home have tended to back that up in Game 2.
In saying that, the Pacers are being given plenty of points in Game 2 and they will certainly feel they may match up with the Celtics without Kristaps Porzingis better than expected.
The 'under' has been a real feature of the Conference Finals in recent seasons, especially when the total has been as big as the one set for this game. However, a slightly improved three point shooting day from Boston will give Game 2 every chance of following Game 1 and heading over this mark set (Game 1 would have been an 'over' even if the game had been concluded in regulation time).
Both teams may continue to push the tempo and that could lead to plenty of points agian, even if Boston remain out of foul trouble. The spread looks tough to call, but backing Game 2 to surpass the total line set looks the route to go.
Friday 24th May
Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 2 Pick: Despite the struggles of Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, the Minnesota Timberwolves saw their role players step to the fore and help the team into a four point lead with four minutes left of Game 1.
Things soured from there with the team failing to add another point over the next three minutes and it was Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving that showed their star qualities throughout Game 1 to help the Dallas Mavericks take the lead in the Western Conference Finals.
Kyrie Irving had a big first half and it was Doncic who closed the show for the Mavericks as they edged to the victory. Now they go into Game 2 looking to really take a stranglehold of the Conference Finals, although the Timberwolves will be itching to get back onto the court and make amends for blowing the opener.
It feels that much worse when a big game from those outside of the star names is wasted, as it was in Game 1, but the Timberwolves have shown their character in the PlayOffs already. Many, including myself, thought they were done when losing three games in a row to the Denver Nuggets in the Semi Final Series, but this Minnesota team is growing in leaps and bounds.
Minnesota will have to make a couple of adjustments to just get a bit more efficiency out of their top two scoring options, while the Dallas Mavericks will be hoping for more of the same from the Irving-Doncic tandem. Those two players combined for 63 points in Game 1 and yet the Mavericks will feel that more is to come from the two considering their lack of consistency from the three point line.
In recent years the zigzag theory has worked best in the Conference Finals and teams playing after a defeat have a 25-12-1 record against the spread in their next game over the last thirty-eight games in that spot.
Big home favourites of 5 or more points have continued to struggle when it comes to covering the spread in recent Conference Finals games, but the Timberwolves may feel it won't take a lot to swing this one back in their direction.
The Mavericks will expect more out of their own role players, but this Timberwolves team is still very good Defensively and the home team can level up this Series before it shifts to Dallas for two games.
Saturday 25th May
Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers Game 3 Pick: Falling into a 2-0 hole in a PlayOff Series has not prevented the Indiana Pacers from making their way into the Eastern Conference Finals. However, it feels a much bigger task fighting back against the Boston Celtics compared with the shorthanded New York Knicks, and even more so if the Indiana Pacers are going to have one of their better players absent or limited in Game 3.
After giving their all and effectively throwing Game 1 away, the Indiana Pacers never recovered from a poor start to the Second Quarter of Game 2 and they were not really as competitive as they would have hoped. They have to hold onto the fact that the Boston Celtics have only 'held serve' by winning both games at the TD Garden, but there were one or two concerns coming out of Game 2 that will be worrying the Indiana fans.
First off is the fact that Rick Carlisle seemed to pull his key starters much earlier than would have been expected- after the game, the Head Coach admitted his team had been feeling the run of three road games in five days and so he felt it best not to risk those players in the Fourth Quarter with the team unlikely to narrow the deficit.
Those players should be ready to compete being back at home where Indiana have played so well in the PlayOffs and especially so if the rest has done them good.
However, the second concern has to be the sore hamstring that forced Tyrese Haliburton to sit out much of the second half. This was supposedly similar to the issues Haliburton had dealt with in the regular season and clearly impacted him and so the Indiana Pacers have to be really worried about competing with the top Seed if their best player is not quite able to play at full strength.
All of this points towards the Boston Celtics finding a way to try and close this Eastern Conference Finals as soon as possible and then begin preparing for the NBA Finals which begin in June. They would be keen to have Kristaps Porzingis return to the lineup before any extended break, but otherwise things are going smoothly for the Celtics who did what they needed to in a comfortable Game 2 win.
Slightly more efficient shooting in Game 2 compared with Game 1 helped the Boston Celtics pull away for a big win. They have yet to lock down Defensively, but Boston have to be comfortable with this match up and they could move to the brink of the NBA Finals on Saturday when travelling to the Gainbridge Fieldhouse for the first time in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Celtics have won all four road games played in the post-season and all have been by at least 7 points with the top Seed exerting their power over opponents.
The switch in venue has tended to favour the hosts in recent Game 3s of the Conference Finals, while teams who lead 2-0 have only produced a 5-8 record against the spread in the last thirteen games in that spot. Those teams had been 3-8 against the spread before both the Nuggets and Heat covered in Game 3s while up 2-0 last year and Boston are certainly capable of keeping that going.
Indiana are coming off a 16 point loss in Game 2, but those teams losing by double digits are 8-2 against the spread in Game 3 so there is hope. However, you have to wonder if the Pacers have enough in the tank to beat a team with the qualities of the Boston Celtics, even in their return home, and laying the points looks the right play.
Sunday 26th May
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Pick: There is going to be some real disappointment in the Minnesota Timberwolves camp having blown a lead in both of the first two games of the Western Conference Finals. Instead of being potentially 2-0 ahead, late buckets have swung the game against them and they will be heading to Dallas 0-2 behind.
Turning this around is not going to be easy, but it is not impossible and Minnesota will know that having seen the Denver Nuggets fight back from the same position in the Conference Semi Finals.
However, there are one or two signs that will really concern fans of the Timberwolves and you do have to wonder if this young team have left much of themselves on the court when rallying to beat the defending Champions in the last Round. The Timberwolves had to win the last two games of that Series, including a Game 7 on the road, and evidence of fatigue has been seen as they have worn down in the Fourth Quarter of both of the games in the Western Conference Finals.
Anthony Edwards is trying, but is clearly not playing at his highest level, while Karl-Anthony Towns is struggling to such an extent that he was benched for key moments in the Game 2 defeat. Making adjustments now will be the key, but finding the energy that has clearly been missing down the stretch is much more difficult this deep into the post-season.
Things will feel much more comfortable for the Dallas Mavericks who have shown they can win on the road throughout their semi-surprising PlayOff run. The depth might not be as great as some of the other teams, but Luka Doncic has really stepped up to the plate and it was his big three pointer in the final seconds of Game 2 that turned the game in the Dallas favour for the last time.
The Mavericks will have to expect some kind of reaction, but they will also feel they have shown they have more energy all around when it comes down to the crunch and just staying with the Timberwolves early is enough. Simply put, Dallas have been much more efficient when it comes to the Fourth Quarter and so many NBA games have been decided in those moments, which has also been the case for Game 1 and 2 in the Western Conference Finals.
The shift in venue means a shift in favouritism, but the best play may be backing this to be the third game in a row that finishes above the total points line set.
Dallas look to have the momentum, but the Minnesota Timberwolves are shooting the ball well enough to believe they can contribute to this total being surpassed. The fatigue has affected the Defensive qualities and this should aid the Mavericks and another game where both teams reach the low 100s looks to be in play.
Monday 27th May
Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers Game 4 Pick: There is no doubting that the Series has been competitive, but the Boston Celtics have managed to find the big buckets when needed and are now one win away from returning to the NBA Finals.
Last year they were in the opposite position of being 3-0 down and managed to fight back against the Miami Heat, so nothing will be taken for granted. However, it is going to take a significant effort for the Indiana Pacers to turn this one around and especially knowing they will have to win at least twice on the road.
At this point merely getting this Series back to Boston might be seen as a big achievement for the Pacers who blew a big lead in Game 3.
An absent Tyrese Haliburton meant there was more pressure on the other players on the roster, but the Indiana Pacers continued to show the depth on the roster. They look like a team that could take some serious leaps in successes in the coming years by learning from the experiences faced in this post-season, but it does look to be coming to an end.
The fight shown will have given the fans much to be encouraged by, although the fact is that the Pacers have dropped Game 3 and that would have been a heavy blow to absorb for the players.
Being back at home will give Indiana a chance, but teams that are 0-3 down in the Conference Finals are 3-4-1 against the spread in the last eight in that spot. Those teams had been 2-4 straight up before last season when Boston managed to win Game 4 against the Miami Heat and took the Series back home.
The Celtics are going to be very comfortable about where they are at in this Conference Finals and they have shown that different players can lead the way for them on any given night. Even without Kristaps Porzingis, Boston have looked the best team in the East, and perhaps the NBA as a whole, and they may just be able to start better in this one.
If they can, Boston should be able to win this game and just about get over this spread set for the game.
Tuesday 28th May
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Pick: The trend in this Western Conference Finals is that the Minnesota Timberwolves have gotten into a position to win games, but ultimately been let down by a poor Fourth Quarter.
It happened again in Game 3 and the Timberwolves are now on the brink of exiting the PlayOffs and allowing the Dallas Mavericks to move forward to compete in the NBA Finals.
That would be a remarkable turnaround for a team that missed out on the PlayOffs completely twelve months ago, but Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic have led this team very effectively. The role players have done enough to back up the two superstars and there is little doubt Irving and Doncic have outplayed Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns at key moments.
The Mavericks lost the turnover and rebounding battle, but they had a very efficient day shooting the ball and ultimately the Timberwolves were not able to keep up in the Fourth Quarter. With KAT not performing near the level expected, Anthony Edwards has tried to put the team on his shoulders, while the Minnesota role players have been effective, but missing a real support for Edwards that would be needed to turn this Series back around.
It looks unlikely and the NBA have to be concerned about the gap between now and the NBA Finals starting on June 6th- both Conference Finals could be swept, and that will mean a significant gap before the Finals begin.
This is not to the concern of Boston or the Dallas Mavericks as they look to get things done without overextending themselves.
Home teams that have not faced elimination in Game 4 of the Conference Finals have been on a very strong run in this Round and every bit of momentum is with the Mavericks having shown their character to make the late buckets and win games. Much like mentioned in the preview for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals, teams down 0-3 have struggled to be as competitive as they would like and the Minnesota Timberwolves might just feel they have given all they have and still come up short.
All Dallas can do is focus on making sure they do not give the Timberwolves any hope to replicate the Boston Celtics and fight back from 3-0 down to force a Game 7 as happened last year. Winning this one at home and then sitting down to prepare for the next challenge will be the only message Head Coach Jason Kidd will be handing down to his team and the Mavericks can win and cover for a fourth time in a row.
Thursday 30th May
Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 5 Pick: It really has been a much more competitive Series than any potential sweep opportunity suggested, but the Dallas Mavericks will feel they let Game 4 get away from them.
Much like the first three games, the Mavericks weathered the early Minnesota Timberwolves storm before rallying for a late win. This time they made the mistakes in the closing minutes of the Fourth Quarter and that has allowed the Timberwolves to take Game 4 on the road.
Keeping the Western Conference Finals alive can only be positive news for the NBA, who would have been fearing a second sweep after the Boston Celtics beat the Indiana Pacers 4-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals. With better Fourth Quarter execution, the Timberwolves might have been returning home with an opportunity to move into the NBA Finals of their own, but they have dug a deep hole and the pressure is never that far.
However, you would not have guessed that from Anthony Edwards who has made his feelings known about making sure this Series goes back to Dallas for a Game 6.
Anthony Edwards has largely played a decent enough Series, but it was the revival of Karl-Anthony Towns that helped the Timberwolves hold off the Mavericks as the rally pushed forward. His big time three pointers late on helped Minnesota and they will need more from KAT, while also expecting the role players to play a strong outing at home.
Kyrie Irving did not have his best game, but Dallas will be expecting him to bounce back having been on the losing end of a potential close out game for the first time. An inefficient shooting day meant Irving was willing to take the blame for the Game 4 defeat on his own shoulders, although Luka Doncic was quick to do the same as Dallas look for an immediate response.
Last year we did see Boston fight back and return home for Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals having erased a 0-3 deficit- that will give Minnesota something to aim for over the next few days, although going one better and becoming the first NBA team to win a best of seven Series when trailing 0-3 is the ultimate challenge.
Game 4 saw some of the scoring dry up, but that might change again when this Western Conference Finals shifts venue again. The total is set back down a couple of points compared with the last game and both teams have shown they can produce enough big moments to look for this one to surpass the total line set.
MY PICKS: 21/05 Boston Celtics - 9.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
22/05 Minnesota Timberwolves - 4.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
23/05 Boston Celtics-Indiana Pacers Over 224.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
24/05 Minnesota Timberwolves - 5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
25/05 Boston Celtics - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
26/05 Dallas Mavericks-Minnesota Timberwolves Over 208.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
27/05 Boston Celtics - 8 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
28/05 Dallas Mavericks - 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
30/05 Minnesota Timberwolves-Dallas Mavericks Over 209.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Conference Finals Update: 3-6, - 3.27 Units (9 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)
Conference Semi Final: 13-11, + 0.87 Units (24 Units Staked, + 3.63% Yield)
First Round: 22-17, + 3.27 Units (38 Units Staked, + 8.61% Yield)
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