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Sunday, 1 September 2019

US Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2019 (September 1st)

I was at the big Boxing fight at the O2 Arena on Saturday evening which means my US Open Tennis Picks from Day 7 have been published a little later than the last few.

Saturday was a very good day for the selections made and we now move into the second week of the tournament with a decent return from the first week. It is something to build on in the coming days as we get into the business end of the final Grand Slam of the season.

The totals for the tournament have been updated and you can see my selections from Day 7 below.

Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Stan Wawrinka: I was left scratching my head that the last time these two players met was at the US Open three years ago when Stan Wawrinka stunned Novak Djokovic to win the last of his Grand Slam titles. Injuries to both players means they have perhaps not entered as many tournaments at the same time in the years since, but it still surprised me considering this is going to be the twenty-sixth time they take to the court seeing the other on the opposite side of the net.

That match at Flushing Meadows in 2016 was actually the third time Stan Wawrinka and Novak Djokovic were facing each other at a Grand Slam in a twenty month period. At the time Wawrinka was really pushing Djokovic all the way with two wins in those three Slam matches and the one that the World Number 1 won came in five sets at the Australian Open.

Things are much changed for Stan Wawrinka these days while Novak Djokovic has seen a slip down the World Rankings before returning to the top of the men's game over the last eighteen months. It was important to see Djokovic looking a little fired up in his Third Round match and also the fact he came out of the win over Denis Kudla feeling much more confident about the shoulder issue that has been bothering him over the last month.

He was a very easy winner on the day and it was much more straight-forward than Stan Wawrinka's own straight sets win in the Third Round. While I have to credit any player getting through to the second week of a Grand Slam tournament, I also have to say that Wawrinka hasn't had a lot of margin for error as he has just about got the better of the last couple of opponents and this is a huge step up for him.

I expect to see Wawrinka fired up, and he has played pretty well against top 20 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months. The Swiss player has been very productive behind serve, but the return has been something of a work in progress in that time and that has been particularly evident when facing the top players on the Tour and makes it very difficult to believe in an upset.

Over the years Novak Djokovic has been the better of the players when these two have taken to the court, but Stan Wawrinka doesn't match up badly with him and those Grand Slam results of a few years ago shows that. He might not be the same player as he was, but I think it is worth having a small interest in Wawrinka being the first player to take a set off of Novak Djokovic at the US Open.

No one has really come close to doing that yet, but I think Wawrinka should be able to put his serving together in a single set which will give him every chance to do so. However it would be a huge surprise to me if Wawrinka is able to make the match much more competitive than that so I will have a small play on Novak Djokovic winning this one in four sets.

Daniil Medvedev - 6.5 games v Dominik Koepfer: The New York City crowd are always the most vocal of the Grand Slam audiences and it is almost encouraged at Flushing Meadows for fans to get involved in matches. Over the years many players have been suddenly seen as the villain on the court and given all sorts from the crowd and I do think it can be a real struggle mentally for even the top players to handle the occasion.

Daniil Medvedev is showing he is not just a very strong player on the court, but one who has the stuff between the ears which is going to take him very close to the top of the men's game in the years ahead. He is already seen as the best of the 'Next Gen' players coming through the ranks, and Medvedev showed he can take the best of what the fans can throw at him as he saw off veteran Feliciano Lopez in four sets in the Third Round.

The interview after the match was very impressive as Medvedev gave it back to the crowd, while he was also shown on the big screen flipping the bird to them and that is likely going to make him the pantomime villain for the rest of the tournament. I don't think Medvedev is going to care and he is going to be very happy to have a day to rest his cramping legs as he looks to put an exclamation point on what has been an impressive six weeks on the Tour.

The Russian is going to be a big favourite in the Fourth Round as he faces Qualifier Dominik Koepfer who has continued his surprising run through the tournament. His win over Nikoloz Basilashvili is the third straight over top 100 Ranked opponents and the German has also beaten a top 20 Ranked opponent for the first time on this surface.

I have no doubt that Koepfer is playing way above his usual level, but he is also handling the big points really impressively. This is something I am struggling to see how he can maintain through the remainder of the tournament and now he is facing an opponent who is not just Ranked in the top 10 in the World Rankings, but one who has been performing about as well as anyone over the last two months on the hard courts.

The cramping issues are perhaps the biggest opponent for Medvedev and I think having the day of rest between the Third Round and the Fourth Round is key here. Daniil Medvedev should be able to come out on Sunday feeling much better than he might have been over the last few days and I think he is going to have too much returning power for Dominik Koepfer in this one.

It is a big number, but I do think Daniil Medvedev is more than capable of covering as long as he is healthy. I think he is going to be highly motivated after the way the crowd turned on him on Friday and Medvedev can take that out on Dominik Koepfer who has massively overachieved in reaching the second week of a Grand Slam in which he had to win three Qualifiers just to get into the main draw.

Roger Federer - 5.5 games v David Goffin: We are yet to see vintage Roger Federer and I think even his win in the Third Round had much to do with the way the schedule worked out for Daniel Evans. In saying that I do think Federer had every right to be annoyed about being questioned about how the schedule was arranged with some suggestions that he had been a serious key to the organisers decision making.

It was about as frustrated as Federer was all day after cruising through the Third Round match and he should be pretty comfortable with this match to get into the Quarter Final. That is not dismissing what David Goffin can do on a tennis court, but he has long been someone who can push the top players for a little bit, but will come up short more often than not.

This has been a strong tournament for Goffin who has been struggling for consistency in recent months and whose numbers over the last twelve months have not been that impressive on the hard courts. He has only dropped a single set so I expect Goffin to be playing with a lot of belief and confidence, especially as he reached the Final in Cincinnati too, but facing Roger Federer is a much different task than beating the likes of Pablo Carreno Busta.

Whenever Goffin has faced opponents Ranked in the top 20 he has had some real troubles as far as being able to be a threat is concerned. Over the last twelve months his struggles on the hard courts against those opponents have been evident.

In that time David Goffin has played four matches and he has held just 71% of the service games played, while he has struggled for breaks with only 19% of return games converted into winning games. That is really not going to cut it against Roger Federer unless the former World Number 1 really is struggling with some untold injury, but it would be a massive surprise if Federer is beaten here.

Roger Federer was a comfortable winner over David Goffin in Halle on the grass courts a couple of months ago, but I would expect the hard courts to make it a little more competitive for the Belgian player. However in their previous hard court matches Roger Federer has held 91% of service games played compared with David Goffin's 67% number and I do think that is going to be key in helping Federer win and cover here.

Even if this match needs four sets to be settled, I do think Federer can find the breaks in one set to pull away for a comfortable margin which is going to be key to getting over this number. While it won't be easy at times, I expect Federer to create the break points which will give him every chance to do what most will think he can do.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic Win 3-1 @ 3.75 Coral (1 Unit)
Daniil Medvedev - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

US Open Update: 18-11, + 7.70 Units (58 Units Staked, + 13.28% Yield)

1 comment:

  1. great job yesterday dav. Great write ups as always. You should post on sports like sbr tennis subforum. Sbr and covers have great traffic, and I like tennis insight. Cheers