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Sunday, 8 September 2019

US Open Day 14 Tennis Picks 2019- Men's Final (September 8th)

She The North.

Bianca Andreescu won yet another major title on the hard courts in 2019 and it was by far the biggest of the lot as she became the latest Grand Slam Champion on the WTA Tour. It was a win she deserved, even through the second set blip, and I do think Andreescu is built to be a major player for years to come.

For Serena Williams it is a fourth Grand Slam Final loss since returning from giving birth and it is going to get harder and harder for the American to win Number 24. That has looked a foregone conclusion for a number of years, but younger players are no longer intimidated and there are enough quality players in the women's game to think there will always be one player better than her in the coming months.

Wimbledon and the US Open in 2020 will be her best chances for a Grand Slam title to match Margaret Court and Williams will be amongst the favourites in Melbourne and Paris too, but I would not be that eager to put my money down on her to earn the one more Grand Slam she needs to join Court at 24 for her Singles career. It is still more likely than not when you think how close Williams has come in the last couple of years, but it is not as guaranteed as it once felt.

The US Open comes to a close on Sunday and we end the tournament with the men's Final. It is a chance for Rafael Nadal to move to within one Grand Slam of Roger Federer at the top of the men's list, but Daniil Medvedev is going to be entering the Final with plenty of confidence too.

You can read my Pick below and I have also updated the US Open totals for the tournament.

Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: A lot of the headlines in the United States will be taken over by the NFL with the majority of Week 1 games of the 2019 season being played on Sunday, but for tennis fans it is the last Singles match to be played in the Grand Slams in this calendar year too. The Men's Final is taking centre stage on Sunday and it looks to be a very good one on paper when Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev meet for the title.

Both players have come through some injury concerns to make the Final and both were strong winners in their Semi Final matches on Friday. Daniil Medvedev was a straight sets winner over Grigor Dimitrov and Rafael Nadal matched that in his win over Matteo Berrettini and it is the latter who has been given the favourite tag.

On first glance it looks like the Spaniard is far too short in the outright market, and I do think that has something to do with the fact that there are still out there that very much believe Medvedev is far from 100%. I also think the way Nadal beat Medvedev for the title in Montreal is playing a part in the prices as the 18 time Grand Slam Champion secured that win with just three games lost and he had broken the young Russian in 57% of return games that day.

I do think Daniil Medvedev will have learned from the experience, and I would be surprised if he doesn't make this a little more competitive. However I also have to take note that he has not been a dominant winner in the last two Rounds and those matches could have easily moved in another direction if the first set tie-breaker had been lost by Medvedev rather than won.

Daniil Medvedev is playing the big points very well at the moment and that can be underlined by his performances in break points in the last few matches. He actually earned fewer break points in the Fourth Round than Dominik Koepfer and earned the same amount as both Stan Wawrinka and Grigor Dimitrov in the Quarter and Semi Final respectively, but on each occasion it is Medvedev who has provided more break points than his opponents.

He is going to have to continue to play his best tennis at the key moments, but Rafael Nadal has been the superior hard court player over the last twelve months and his level has been consistently higher than Medvedev's throughout this tournament. Rafael Nadal has also needed to win one fewer match having benefited from a withdrawal in the Second Round and the Spaniard looks to be the fresher going into this match.

I would be disappointed if Medvedev is not able to at least be competitive for a while in this match, but I think he is going to struggle to contain Nadal who will be happy for the longer rallies to develop to wear down his opponent. He has to expect a tougher challenge than the one he faced in the Semi Final, but I think the Spaniard is going to move to one Grand Slam behind Roger Federer with a win that sees him pull away from the middle of the match and that should give him every chance of covering this mark.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

US Open Update: 27-18, + 8.68 Units (90 Units Staked, + 9.64% Yield)

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