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Thursday, 1 August 2019

Tennis Picks 2019 (August 1st)

I didn't have a lot of luck on Wednesday with the Tennis Picks being made and a couple of games would have literally swung the day to be a very strong one. In saying that, I can't complain whenever a winning record is put on the board and that continues to turn this week back around.

On Thursday I will be adding any Tennis Picks to this thread once the markets in Washington and Los Cabos have been set. Those matches are being put together during the night as the full Second Round is completed in both events to try and ensure the tournaments are completed before the Canada Masters begins this weekend.

Hopefully it can be one more positive day to get this week back into the black. I will also update the weekly totals once all of the Wednesday Picks have been played.


Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: Playing in front of home crowds should always be a boost for players and I do think someone like Frances Tiafoe will thrive in those kind of conditions. He was a comfortable winner in the Second Round, but the level of opponent increases significantly when he faces Daniil Medvedev in the Third Round.

There has been a consistency to the Tiafoe performances on the hard courts and the numbers he has produced in 2019 are virtually identical to 2018. In both seasons the American has held 81% of his service games played on the surface, and he has won 64% of service points played in each year too.

Even on the return there are similarities with Tiafoe breaking in 19% of return games in 2018 and moving that to 20% in 2019. This season he has more breaks but he is winning slightly fewer return points in terms of a percentage and Tiafoe's numbers are fairly average on the hard courts.

Now Frances Tiafoe has to face Daniil Medvedev who only recently reached a new career high of Number 9 in the World Rankings. The Russian has shown significant improvement on the hard courts in 2019 and he is playing some of his best tennis on the surface this year.

He has continued to prove to be effective behind serve having held 84% of his service games played on the hard courts in 2019. The numbers are similar to 2018 in terms of hold percentage, but Medvedev is actually winning a higher percentage of points behind serve, while the real key to his success on the surface has been the improvement in the return.

Last year Daniil Medvedev broke in 24% of return games on the hard courts, but he has improved that number to 28% in 2019. He looked strong in his Second Round win over Bjorn Fratangelo and I think he can get the better of Tiafoe in this one too.

I was hoping that Medvedev would still be a little under-rated by the layers, but they are on top of him at the moment. However I think he should have been favoured to cover a handicap number slightly higher than where the line has been set and I will back Daniil Medvedev to win and cover.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Thanasi Kokkinakis @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lesia Tsurenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-9, - 1.08 Units (38 Units Staked, - 2.84% Yield)

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