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Tuesday, 6 August 2019

Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (August 6th)

Monday was not a great day for the Tennis Picks, but things can be turned around over the coming days as we get further into the Canadian Masters being played in Montreal and Toronto.

I have updated the totals from the Canadian Masters at the bottom of this thread, and you can see my selections from the remaining First Round matches and the Second Round matches that are scheduled for Tuesday in this thread too.

Gilles Simon - 1.5 games v Radu Albot: As you can get in any of the Masters events that are played throughout the season, there are some good looking First Round matches that take place. One of those that has me intrigued is this match between a veteran who is finding an Indian Summer and a player who has produced some of his best tennis of his career over the last few months to reach a new career high Ranking to open this week.

Gilles Simon is the veteran who has reversed what had been a declining position in the World Rankings and who could be Seeded at the US Open if he can put together some solid wins over the next couple of weeks. His opponent is Radu Albot who is five places behind him in the World Rankings, but who is fresh off a run to the Semi Final in Los Cabos which means he is at a career best Number 39 in the Rankings.

Both players will look to play a similar brand of tennis- they will feel their serve can be a little vulnerable, but they can make plenty of balls back on the return to win a large amount of points to earn the breaks of serve too. It really is going to come down to which of these two players can find their consistent tennis the best on the day to determine which will move through to the Second Round.

Radu Albot may feel he has been playing the better tennis since Wimbledon having taken in a couple of tournaments and reaching the Semi Final last week. However I do think Gilles Simon will feel like he was a very unfortunate loser to Nick Kyrgios in Washington last week and the defeat doesn't feel so bad when you think of how the Australian played on his way to winning the title in the United States capital.

The very slight edge in terms of the numbers over the last twelve months on the hard courts at the main ATP level have to be given to the Frenchman too. Gilles Simon has won a higher percentage of points behind serve and on the return when it comes to the hard court matches in that time period compared with Radu Albot and that has led to an edge in terms of percentage of service games held, although he has slightly fewer breaks of serve.

These two have also met on the hard courts twice before and Gilles Simon is yet to drop his serve against Albot while winning all five sets they have competed with the last match between the players coming in Metz less than twelve months ago. Gilles Simon has been very comfortable getting into the Albot service games and finding the breaks of serve in their previous matches and I give the veteran the edge to come through and win this match with a cover of the number too.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: The last twelve months have just seen Diego Sebastian Schwartzman fall back from his career best World Ranking achieved in June 2018. He will be looking to return to the top 20 in the weeks ahead as someone who is perhaps under-rated on the hard courts and Schwartzman picking up the title in Los Cabos a few days ago should be playing with confidence.

It can be very difficult to win a title and then produce some of your best tennis for a second week in succession, but Schwartzman has been given a chance to get his teeth into the Canadian Masters being played in Montreal. He is facing Italian Marco Cecchinato who is really struggling for his form and who has not been at his best on the hard courts.

Marco Cecchinato is just 5-16 on the hard courts over the last twelve months and he is now down at Number 61 in the World Rankings. He did reach the Semi Final in Doha to open the 2019 season, but for the most part it has been a struggle for Cecchinato and this could be a very tough match up for him.

In the last twelve months Marco Cecchinato has held just under 77% of his service games played on the hard courts, but the issues he has mainly faced is working out the best way to approach return games. The Italian has won just 31% of the return points played on the hard courts in that time and he has broken in 11% of return games played.

There is a chance that Cecchinato has more success against Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who has a serve which can be attacked by opponents. The Argentinian has held just 76% of the service games he has played on the hard courts over the last twelve months, but he makes a much stronger impact on the return of serve with almost 30% of the return games played ending in a break in his favour.

Having a long week in Los Cabos could also go against Schwartzman, but I think his ability on the return of serve will give him a chance to cover this number. These two met twice on the clay earlier this season and it is Schwartzman who had the slight edge with breaks in 30% of return games played compared with Cecchinato's 27% mark.

The last of those matches came in Madrid where the conditions tend to be quicker and it was Schwartzman who won comfortably that day. Quicker courts should suit him more here in Montreal too and I will look for the higher Ranked player to cover a big mark.

MY PICKS: Gilles Simon - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Taylor Fritz @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Canadian Masters Update: 1-4, - 6 Units (10 Units Staked, - 60% Yield)

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