Week 12 of the NFL begins on Thanksgiving Day in the United States and there are no more bye weeks as we start making the move towards the Play Offs.
The NFC looks like it is going to be a much more competitive battle to decide the six teams who are still playing football in January, while the AFC looks to be a bit of a mess outside of the two leading contenders in Pittsburgh and New England.
At this stage of the season, I think there is every chance a 9-7 team from the AFC will be able to take one of the Wild Card spots in that Conference while a 10-6 team could miss out in the NFC. That is the way the cookie crumbles from time time, but there is plenty of football still to be played before the shake up is completed.
The NFL games are spread over four days with a heavy Thursday night schedule on Thanksgiving Day. The Week 12 Picks will come out in this thread beginning with a pick from each of those Thanksgiving Day clashes.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Pick: The injury to Aaron Rodgers has opened the door for teams in the NFC North to make their way through to the Play Offs and the Minnesota Vikings have taken the most advantage with six straight wins. That has moved them 2 games ahead of the Detroit Lions who have won three wins in a row of their own as the opening Thanksgiving Day NFL game has plenty on the line for both teams.
Both teams will believe they are good enough to make the post-season, but the NFC North is a lot closer than the 2 game difference may suggest even with just six games left to go in the regular season. The Lions have gone 3-0 in the Division and sweeping the series with the Minnesota Vikings would mean they hold the tie-breaker down the stretch, although at the moment it is all about continuing to wins games and challenging for a Wild Card spot at the worst.
Playing on Thanksgiving Day used to be a chore for the Detroit Lions, but they have won all three games played under Head Coach Jim Caldwell and that has to give them encouragement. Matthew Stafford has also been playing at a high level at Quarter Back which has just papered over some of the cracks that the Detroit Lions have had.
One of the main issues has been the lack of success running the ball and I am not sure they are going to be able to get back on track in this one. Ameer Abdullah will be used, but I don't suppose he is going to suddenly go off in this one against a strong Minnesota Defensive Line that doesn't give up a lot of yards on the ground.
It all means the pressure will be back on Stafford's shoulders, but he has been able to deal with that in recent weeks with three wins in a row. The level he is playing at suggests Stafford can have success with some solid Receiving weapons and the ability of the Running Backs to catch the ball out of the backfield and make their plays.
The key for Stafford has to be how well he has protected the ball despite facing some pressure up front. That will be the case in this one too, but Stafford can have success throwing against this Secondary who are strong, but who have a couple of weaker spots that Stafford is more than capable of exploiting.
It will need a big game from Stafford for the Detroit Lions to have success in this Week 12 game with the way Minnesota have been playing. Case Keenum has played at a far superior level than could have been expected and that is keeping Teddy Bridgewater on the sidelines, while the Vikings have got full belief in their Quarter Back in their six game winning run.
You would imagine this is not going to be all on Keenum either after the struggles Detroit have had in stopping the run. Minnesota can have their Running Backs enjoy success and keep Keenum in third and manageable spots in this one, even if Minnesota's Offensive Line have not been opening as many holes on the ground as they would have liked in recent games.
Overall this is an Offensive Line that can pave the way for the Backs and they should have their biggest game in a while after seeing the Lions give up 6.3 yards per carry and 167 yards per game on the ground in their last three games. Keeping Keenum in third and manageable should mean the Quarter Back is not forced to make plays and also ease the pass rush that Detroit have managed to create.
One question for Keenum is making sure he can do enough to avoid turnovers which could be critical in this game. That could be a turning factor in this one, and I do like the Detroit Lions as the home underdog with the points here.
Detroit have won the last three against Minnesota with two of those coming as the underdog and it does feel like they may match up well with their NFC North rival. The underdog is 9-3-1 against the spread in the last thirteen in this series and Detroit have been strong on Thanksgiving Day under Jim Caldwell with three wins out of three.
The Lions are 5-1 against the spread in their last six Thursday night games. Add in the fact that Minnesota are just 3-7 against the spread in their last ten road games as well as being 2-6 against the spread in the last eight against the NFC North and I have to take the points on offer with the better Quarter Back Matthew Stafford in a position to earn another upset win over the Minnesota Vikings.
A full Field Goal in terms of a start would have been a two unit selection, but laying under a Field Goal gives Minnesota every chance of the cover if I am got this wrong so I will have a small interest in this one.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: With the way the two Conferences have been developing in the NFL this season, the Los Angeles Chargers are still very much in the Wild Card mix at 4-6 in the AFC. On the other hand, the Dallas Cowboys will know the pressure they will be under at 5-5 and with injuries and suspensions hurting them on both sides of the ball.
It does feel like the Chargers are a team moving in a positive direction after a 0-4 beginning to the season, but they have to keep winning and have little room for error. They are facing a Dallas Cowboys team who have not only lost back to back games, but who have been blown out and really begun to struggle Offensively.
That is a big problem for the Cowboys in the tough NFC East and the absence of Ezekiel Elliot has not been the biggest problem. Anyone who saw the Atlanta Falcons game against Dallas ten days ago would have seen what liked an Offensive Line bookended by turnstiles which saw the Falcons constantly in the face of Dak Prescott at Quarter Back.
With little time to throw the ball and constantly being harassed days later against the Philadelphia Eagles, Prescott was guilty of some big time turnovers as the Eagles ran away with the game in the second half. The absence of Tyron Smith has been huge for the Cowboys in those two games, but it looks like he will be back and that is a huge boost for the Cowboys.
Smith is going to be needed at his best as he takes on Joey Bosa, while the Chargers also have Melvin Ingram who should be able to create some havoc in the backfield. Even without Elliot the Cowboys have been able to run the ball and I think they will have some success doing that against the Chargers too, but the key will be how effective Smith is back on the Offensive Line when it comes to protecting Prescott and giving him time to make his throws.
There are some holes in the Los Angeles pass Defense that can be exposed with time, but Prescott has to make better decisions than he did against Philadelphia as the Chargers have been key to turn the ball over. I do think the Cowboys will do better Offensively than they have in the last couple of games, but once again they are going up against a team they won't want to fall behind against and allow the pass rushers to pin back their ears.
Dallas should be able to run the ball, but the Chargers should also have successes on the ground having shown improvement in that aspect of their Offense in recent games. That has been a huge boost for the Chargers and put them in a position to win games and I do think Melvin Gordon can help them establish the run which should make life that much more comfortable for Philipp Rivers at Quarter Back.
Rivers remains one of the better Quarter Backs playing in the NFL and he should be able to make plays from third and manageable spots. The Receiving weapons are decent enough to find holes in this Dallas Defensive unit, especially as any success running the ball should slow down the Dallas pass rush against a Quarter Back who is able to make his throws very quickly.
That should help the Chargers move the chains too, but this is going to be a close game and I have to admit I was leaning towards the home underdog with the returning Tyron Smith giving them the boost they need. It just feels like the Cowboys have been taking a lot of criticism at the moment and the Chargers are a little over-rated to be a road favourite when you think they have yet to be in that position this season.
However I do wonder how healthy Smith is on his return and the Chargers have a fierce pass rush which could cause problems for them. It still feels like a lot of points for the Dallas Cowboys to be given as the home underdog, but the better way to approach this game may be to look for the teams to combine for under the total points.
There are some big trends pointing in that direction and I do think the two teams have been struggling Offensively. With the Chargers likely able to stall some drives with their pass rush, the Cowboys are facing an Offensive unit who take their time to drive the ball up and down the field and that could mean possessions don't produce the points expected.
Turnovers can be a killer in these situations, but the Chargers had not scored more than 21 points in four straight games before picking off Nathan Peterman and the Buffalo Bills over and over again in the first half last week. The Dallas Offensive unit have produced 16 total points in the last two weeks, while they have been competitive Defensively before the blow out loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday.
I will look for some big plays to make sure this is a game that doesn't cover the total points line with both teams getting into the early 20's in points scored.
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins Pick: When the NFL schedule makers decided on the third NFL game for Thanksgiving Day it must have felt they had picked one that could be a pivotal game in the NFC East. Both the New York Giants and Washington Redskins have performed considerably under the expectations though and their seasons are on the brink of being a complete disaster.
In fact that is a pretty apt way to describe things for the New York Giants who have been decimated by injuries with Odell Beckham Jr the standout name who is absent through the season. However they will come into this one with some momentum having knocked off the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11 and that will definitely be a better feeling than the Washington Redskins have who were beaten in New Orleans in Overtime.
That loss has dropped the Redskins down to 4-6 in the loaded NFC and another loss might mean they are already out of contention for even a Wild Card spot. There will be no sympathy for the injuries the New York Giants have suffered either as Washington lost Chris Thompson last week and have also shut down Terrelle Pryor and a couple of starting Offensive Linemen.
It is incredibly difficult for the Washington Redskins to play with any consistency with that in mind, but Kirk Cousins continues to try his best to pick Washington up by the scruff of the neck. Even more will be on the Quarter Back's shoulders this week, but Cousins wants to show why he is worth the money he has been demanding on a long-term contract.
The Redskins have found it difficult to establish the run throughout this season and it has been even tougher in recent games. There may be some joy against the New York Giants Defensive Line who have given up some big plays on the ground, but with a banged up Offensive Line with back ups in play, it is going to be tough for the Redskins to establish the run with any consistency in this game.
Cousins will feel they can make some plays through the air, but there might be limited time for him even if the Giants pass rush has been very quiet in recent weeks. His Offensive Line is going to be challenged with the new look, but I can see a situation where Cousins is able to make a few big plays to keep the chains moving, although also some drives which are stalled by poor protection, penalties or time running out faster than the Quarter Back expects.
Injuries have also hurt the Redskins on the Defensive side of the ball, but it will be interesting to see if the New York Giants can exploit the issues Washington have been having. Since their entire Receiving corps went down, the Giants have really struggled to move the chains with any consistency and Eli Manning has continued to have his problems.
Manning will likely look to lean on Orleans Darkwa who has sparked the Giants on the ground, especially as the Redskins have had their problems stopping the run in recent games. That can keep the Giants in third and manageable and may just ease the Washington pass rush which can get to the Quarter Back, while also meaning Manning is not looking for long developing passing plays.
It is still hard to trust the Giants to find any consistency to their drives and this is a team who have not scored more than 21 points in their last four games. That could be changed against a Washington Defensive unit who have not made the plays they would have liked and this could be another game where the Giants can overachieve.
No one expected them to beat the Kansas City Chiefs last week and this looks a lot of points to give to a team that could exploit a few issues the Redskins are having from an injury point of view. It is a chance for the Giants to spoil the Washington season for good and the underdog is now 10-3 against the spread in the last thirteen in this series, while the New York Giants are 6-2 against the spread in the last eight.
Washington are also 10-28-2 against the spread in the last forty home games against a team with a losing record on the road and they look a little over-rated here after coming off an emotional Overtime loss to the New Orleans Saints. They can't afford to lose, but this is still plenty of points to be giving to the New York Giants and I will look for them to have a big effort against a Divisional rival and make enough plays to keep this one competitive.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets Pick: Both the Carolina Panthers and New York Jets come out of their bye with their hopes of making the Play Offs still intact. That might be a surprise for the Jets who have lost four of their last five games, but they can still fight for a Wild Card spot in the AFC in a season that was supposed to end with them having one of the top two picks in the next NFL Draft.
They aren't the only team in this one who may be overachieving with the Carolina Panthers having some difficult moments eighteen months since they played in the Super Bowl. Not many picked the Panthers to come out of the NFC South, but they are in a position to challenge for the Division against the equally surprising New Orleans Saints, while a Wild Card berth is very much within their grasp.
It makes this a big game for both teams in Week 12 with the regular season leaving just six games to go and I am not buying into the non-Conference factor in this one. While the Panthers have some big Divisional games to come and could be focused on those, I do think they would have been told of the importance of coming out of the bye week in the right way and to make sure they keep the momentum with which they entered the two week break.
The return of Greg Olsen is huge for Carolina and the passing game which has lost some key Receivers to injury or trade in recent weeks. Olsen is one of the best Tight Ends in the NFL and he could become the leading figure for Cam Newton through the air as the most trusted target on the roster.
Olsen could see his snaps limited this week, but taking to the air could be important for the Panthers against a much improved New York Defensive unit. There aren't huge holes in the Secondary with the way the Jets are able to get pressure up front and prevent Quarter Backs from having the time to carve them up, while the Defensive Line is the strength of the Jets Defensive unit and have been playing like that.
The Jets have made it tougher to run the ball against them in recent games and the battle at the line of scrimmage is going to be huge after seeing Carolina get things going on the ground. Spying Newton will be key as the Quarter Back has been the most successful of the players running the rock, but the Jets may feel they can at least give their team a chance by preventing Carolina having a lot of consistent success Offensively.
However the problem for New York is going to be on the other side of the ball where the Panthers Defense has been playing right up there with any in the NFL. While Josh McCown has plenty of experience at Quarter Back, this is going to be a tough day for him against the Panthers who have gotten up front and are likely to get after the veteran when he does step back to throw.
McCown has to look for the Jets to get the run established to at least give him a chance, but New York have had their issues running the ball all season. That will mean McCown is throwing under pressure and into a Secondary who have been able to turn the ball over and I do like the way Carolina have been playing to feel they can win here on the road.
Both teams have been very strong at home/road respectively against the spread which makes this a tough game to read. However the favourite is 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five in the series and I think the superior Panthers can do enough Defensively to work their way into a couple of short fields which leads to a win and a cover.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Go back a few weeks and the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills had to be very excited about their chances of making the Play Offs this season. Since then the Buffalo Bills have lost three games in a row to fall back to 0.500, while the Kansas City Chiefs have been beaten in four of their last five games to lose their grip on the AFC West at 6-4.
It just goes to show why you can't read too much into starts made in the NFL where things can quickly take a downward turn. The Bills didn't help themselves when Head Coach Sean McDermott decided he would remove Tyrod Taylor as his starting Quarter Back in favour of Nathan Peterman who subsequently threw five Interceptions in the first half of a blow out loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.
McDermott didn't immediately take responsibility for a terrible decision, but the Head Coach has shown some strong attitude to go back to Taylor and admit he read things wrong.
For the Chiefs the downward spiral is a worry as the Defensive unit haven't played that well all season and the Offensive plays have been a little one-dimensional. Andy Reid isn't going to make a change at Quarter Back like McDermott did, but he has to be displeased with the way things are going and this is a big game for the Chiefs even if the challengers in the AFC West have yet to really build any real momentum.
The Chiefs had Kareem Hunt going off for some big games earlier this season, but the rookie may have hit a wall and I would be worried about that. This is a big test to see how Hunt is feeling because the Buffalo Defensive Line have not been able to close the running lanes as they had been before trading away Marcell Dareus to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
If the run is established, it takes away all pressure from Alex Smith who has been guilty of some poor decisions when throwing the ball in recent games. Interceptions crushed Kansas City in their loss to the awful New York Giants in Week 11, and passing the ball against Buffalo has been a tough task for teams.
Some of that may be down to the fact you have been able to make some big gains on the ground against them, while last week they were only defending short fields which made it easy for the Los Angeles Chargers to score plenty of points. It will still be a tough day for the Chiefs if they are not able to get back up to speed and that gives Buffalo a chance with the number of points they are receiving.
Last week it looked like Buffalo had almost given up after the decision to bench Taylor at Quarter Back and I think his return may spark a big game for them. Kelvin Benjamin is out which takes away what could have been a key weapon for them in the passing game, but Taylor's mobility at Quarter Back means he protects the Offensive Line by escaping pressure and Taylor has also been careful enough with the ball.
His ability to scramble for long runs coupled with LeSean McCoy at Running Back could be huge for the Buffalo Bills this week. The Kansas City Defensive Line have not been able to stop the run with any consistency and Buffalo will pride themselves on trying to get the run established behind Taylor and McCoy, while Shady should also be a threat catching the ball out of the backfield.
Being able to run the ball will shorten the game and also give Buffalo the chance to keep the Kansas City Offense cold on the sidelines. I think the Bills can do that and they look to be receiving a lot of points here considering how the Chiefs have been struggling in recent weeks themselves.
Back to back blow outs will have had a factor in the spread, but I think the Bills may up their game in support of Quarter Back Tyrod Taylor here and look to match up well enough with the Kansas City Chiefs. The road team is 6-2 against the spread in the last eight in this series and the Buffalo Bills are 4-1 against the spread in the last five in Kansas City.
Buffalo have not been much fun to back at the window this season, but I do like them here and I will take the points on offer.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: Injuries are a part of a long NFL season, but the Seattle Seahawks won't believe the way their 'Legion of Boom' have been decimated. There is still every chance the Seahawks can win the NFC West or earn a Wild Card spot but they can't afford to lose Divisional games like this one if they are going to do that.
While the Play Offs are not something the San Francisco 49ers are worrying about at the moment, there is still very much every desire to play spoiler against the much disliked Seattle Seahawks. They are coming out of their bye week having recorded the first win of the season in Week 10 and the injuries suffered by their visitors have to offer some encouragement.
CJ Beathard remains the Quarter Back for the 49ers despite the trade made to bring in Jimmy Garoppolo who Kyle Shanahan said could be kept from having any action until the 2018 season. Beathard is coming off a really good game against the New York Giants and the Quarter Back may be encouraged by the problems Seattle have in their Secondary with both Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor ruled out.
While he will have some success throwing the ball, Beathard is still not one of the better Quarter Backs in the NFL and he will need to hope his limited Receiving corps can still win their battles. The problems may come up front though as the Seattle Defensive Line have really begin to exert their influence and they should certainly be good enough to win their battles with the San Francisco Offensive Line and put the young Quarter Back under pressure.
It has begun with the ability to stop the run and Seattle will be looking to keep Beathard in third and long spots and then get after him which could lead to some mistakes even against a banged up Secondary. That has to be a concern for the 49ers in this one, although I am also anticipating Beathard having some nice plays to keep the chains moving for the 49ers.
Seattle have some Offensive Line problems of their own, but I am not imagining the San Francisco 49ers having the same success as the Seahawks when it comes to getting after the Quarter Back. First off Russell Wilson is so used to scrambling away from pressure and still making big plays that I don't have much concern for him, while the other key factor could be the run game which has begin to spark for the Seattle Seahawks.
Being able to run the ball may just slow down the San Francisco pass rush to give Wilson a little more time to make his plays down the field. This is a 49ers Secondary which has made some mistakes this season and allowed passing plays to hurt them and I think Wilson can hook up with his Receivers to put the Seahawks in a very good position to try and win this one on the road and cover this number.
The Seahawks are now 4-1 against the spread in their last five visits to the 49ers. They are also 8-2-1 against the spread in their last eleven coming off a loss, while San Francisco are 0-4 against the spread in their last four following a bye. Add in a poor recent record at home when it comes to a return at the window and I like the Seahawks here in a game where I believe they can win by double digits.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: With six games left in the regular season, the Jacksonville Jaguars are in command of the AFC South but it is going to be a battle that goes down to the wire with the Tennessee Titans. They can't afford to drop any game at the moment, but this is not the easiest of spots for the Jaguars who are playing back to back road games.
They have won four in a row though and face the Arizona Cardinals who are having a really poor season which has not been helped by some big injuries. Both David Johnson and Carson Palmer have been hurt and the Cardinals have dropped two games in a row to fall to 4-6 on the season.
This is going to be a huge challenge for Drew Stanton and the Cardinals Offensive unit to get back on track in this one. The basis of the success for the Jaguars has been behind their impressive Defensive performances and they could be the key to their success in Week 12 too.
Arizona will try and establish the run with Adrian Peterson at Running Back but the struggles of the Offensive Line means the Cardinals have not been able to find any consistency running the rock. Since Marcell Dareus arrived from the Buffalo Bills, the Jaguars have improved their biggest weakness on the Defensive unit by beginning to shut down the run and it could be a long day for the Cardinals if they are stuck in third and long.
The Offensive Line have not only had issues in run blocking but the pass protection has not been much better and keeping the Jaguars out of the backfield looks a long shot. That means Stanton will be hit, dropped and throwing into a very strong Secondary under pressure and even the absence of Jalen Ramsey may not help him.
Stanton also never feels too far away from a critical turnover or two and I do think that will help the Jaguars put themselves in a position to win and cover here.
The key may be how much Blake Bortles can continue playing mistake free football for the Jaguars with the Quarter Back still very much the biggest question mark about this franchise. Bortles is facing a strong Defensive unit who are able to get plenty of pressure up front, while they have some very strong players in the Secondary who will feast on any mistakes he makes.
Running the ball will also be difficult for the Jaguars which will mean there is more pressure on Bortles shoulders in this one. In recent weeks Bortles has at least avoided the big mistakes that have blighted his career and he has to lean on the Jaguars Defense in this one. Doing that could see a couple of short fields open up and that will give Jacksonville the chance to win this game on the road and cover what does look to be a lot of points to get over on first glance.
The Jaguars are 7-1 against the spread in the last eight road games and the only concern here has to be the back to back and playing on the West Coast. However Arizona have been over-rated for some time which is shown up by them going 8-20-1 against the spread in their last twenty-nine games overall and only a really bad day in the office from Blake Bortles will give them a chance as far as I am concerned.
That is possible, but I will look for the Jaguars to make some big Defensive plays which helps them win and cover on the road.
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: The Pittsburgh Steelers as a huge home favourite on primetime is not a place I would want to lay my money with their notorious history of missing out on the cover in these kind of games. However I think the Steelers have to be feeling good after having a few more days to rest up for this game and I am struggling to see how the Green Bay Packers can score enough points to stay with them.
In reality this should have been a huge game with Aaron Rodgers coming to town, but the injury to the star Quarter Back has put the Packers on the back foot. Ten days ago the Packers fans would have seen the way the Pittsburgh Steelers forced the Tennessee Titans into mistakes with a far superior mobile Quarter Back than Brett Hundley who will lead the Green Bay Packers this week.
Hundley has had issues holding onto the ball far too long and this Offensive Line is not one that will keep the vicious Pittsburgh pass rush from penetrating the backfield and getting to the former UCLA Bruins starter. There are some top Receivers here in the Green Bay line up, but Hundley hasn't always had the confidence to find them and I would not be surprised to see an Interception or two as he is forced to throw under duress.
The Steelers Defensive Line have to feel they can continue shutting down the run too with the top two Running Backs of the Packers banged up. They restricted Marcus Mariota from making too many plays with his legs last week so scrambling may not be an option for Hundley and I think it could be a long day in the office for the Packers with the ball in their hand.
However the Green Bay Defense have tried to step up and that may at least limit the damage the Steelers can do and keep them in the game. Le'Veon Bell is one of the best Running Backs in the NFL, but there have not been a lot of room up front for him in recent games and the Packers Defensive Line have been strong at limiting the run.
Bell has been held in check by lesser opponents than the Green Bay Packers, but the problems remain in the Secondary and that is where Ben Roethlisberger and the improving pass Offense can make hay. They have lost rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster for this game, but Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Bell out of the backfield provide plenty of options for Big Ben.
Green Bay may be able to get to the Quarter Back and rattle him a little bit, but I would expect Roethlisberger to get untracked and the Steelers to find the points they need to cover a big number.
The Steelers have not allowed more than 17 points in their last five games since their blow out home loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Against this limited Green Bay Offense it would be a surprise if they give up more than that and I think a couple of turnovers from the Defensive unit can set up the Steelers to move away for a big win here.
Pittsburgh are 7-3-1 against the spread in their last eleven games following a win of 14 points or more and I will look for them to cover here.
MY PICKS: Detroit Lions + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Dallas Cowboys-Los Angeles Chargers Under 47.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
New York Giants + 7 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (1 Unit)
Carolina Panthers - 5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 14 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
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