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Sunday, 19 November 2017

ATP World Tour Finals Day 8 Picks 2017- Men's Final (November 19th)

There was one really big surprise in the ATP World Tour Finals Semi Finals played on Saturday as Roger Federer was beaten by David Goffin for the first time and after a dominant first set.

I am not convinced Federer was at 100% as he seemed to be favouring his leg, but it was still a huge surprise.

How many people would have gone into the 2017 season and predicted the last match on the Tour would have been between Grigor Dimitrov and David Goffin? The winner may see this as the boost they need in their career to perhaps take the next step at the Grand Slam level, although I still think it would be a huge ask for either Dimitrov or Goffin to become a Slam Champion barring something like the injuries that have been at play this year which gave us the final eight we had in London.

That's the way it goes sometimes, but I think the likely challengers for the Slams will be much deeper going into 2018 and so it will be tough for either of the Finalists to take that step and add a Major to the CV. However, this is a big boost for the confidence and players have been able to progress with a belief in what they are doing off the court making the difference on it for them going forward.

Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v David Goffin: I backed Grigor Dimitrov to get the better of David Goffin when these two players met in the Groups earlier this week, but he is now being asked to cover an additional game on the handicap.

The match earlier this week was very one sided as Dimitrov dominated, but I think there will be more nerves at play in this one with a big prize on the line. I also don't think David Goffin can play as poorly as he did in that Group match, although there is a little similarity with the situation.

A few days ago Goffin went into the Group match having beaten an injured Rafael Nadal in three tough sets and he failed to overcome the emotion of that. Now he has come through in three sets against another legend in Roger Federer and I do wonder if he is going to have the same kind of let down and against the same opponent.

Dimitrov has enjoyed the match up with Goffin and has shown he can get his teeth into the return games which makes him the clear favourite to win this match. You just don't ever know how Dimitrov will react to the sense of expectation that will be on his shoulders and that is my biggest concern when it comes to this number as I do think he will get the yips down the stretch.

However I think Dimitrov will be able to get into a strong position with the way he has been taking the opportunities that have been presented to him. He has been winning sets by wide margins which has allowed Dimitrov to cover the games even when forced into a third set and I do think David Goffin will have some emotional let down after a big win on Saturday.

It's a tough one with the Dimitrov nerves likely to play a part, but I think he can win this one 6-3, 6-4 and take home the biggest prize of his career so far.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

ATP World Tour Finals Update: 8-6, + 2.76 Units (28 Units Staked, + 9.86% Yield)

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