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Wednesday, 15 November 2017

ATP World Tour Finals Day 4 Picks 2017 (November 15th)

It is a real shame the ATP World Tour Finals has lost Rafael Nadal because it does feel that the first Group is now a lot stronger than the second Group. The players who are back in action on Wednesday will dispute that for sure, but I would not be surprised if we get a repeat of a match seen in the first Group next Sunday when the ATP World Tour Finals Final is played.

The players in the second Group are playing their second round robin matches will certainly want to prove that prediction wrong as we look to see if another Semi Finalist can be confirmed following Roger Federer's place being secured on Tuesday.

Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v David Goffin: You have to have nothing but respect for the way David Goffin has been able to produce enough results to stay with the elite of the men's game when it comes to the World Rankings. However he is some way short of the very best players although Goffin has gone 4-4 in matches against fellow top ten players in 2017.

The win over Rafael Nadal came after a gruelling battle with the injured World Number 1 and I do wonder if that is going to be a factor in this one just a couple of days later. Goffin did really play well in that match, but you would be foolish to ignore the troubles Nadal has been having which flared up in that match and even then it took the Belgian some time to put away his opponent.

I am not sure this is the best court for Goffin who is so good at defending his position around the court. That could be an issue against the aggressive Grigor Dimitrov we have seen in 2017 although Goffin will feel he has the better consistency off the ground if Dimitrov is not at his best.

It has been a match up that Dimitrov has enjoyed for the most part as he has won six of their seven professional matches. However the last one of those was won by Goffin although that was a match Dimitrov will feel he blew.

That match in Rotterdam was the third time these two players have met in 2017 and it was Dimitrov who won the first two matches including at the Australian Open. In the matches won by Dimitrov over Goffin, the Bulgarian has been able to really get his teeth into the Goffin serve and he has to be better than a couple of days ago against Dominic Thiem when Dimitrov did struggle with his return.

However Thiem has a much bigger game than Goffin and the heavier shots he can produce gave Dimitrov plenty of issues. That is not going to be the case here and I do think Dimitrov can get into a position to dictate the points more often than not and that should mean he is able to push Goffin around the court and get into a position to win this match.

I also believe Goffin is perhaps a little more fatigued than Dimitrov after his battle a couple of days ago and I will look for Dimitrov to win this one 6-3, 3-6, 6-3.

Dominic Thiem - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: With both players having a loss next to their name in different circumstances, this is a big match for both Dominic Thiem and Pablo Carreno Busta if they have real ambitions of making it through to the ATP World Tour Finals Semi Final on Saturday.

The defeats on the ledger means they have to really hope to win their final two matches to have a chance of getting through to the Semi Final which should make it a tense evening at the O2 Arena.

It can be tough to trust Dominic Thiem at this time of the season as he is one player who really needs to improve his scheduling to make sure he has the energy for a full season. There were some signs of fatigue in his three set loss to Grigor Dimitrov on Monday and that has to be a concern for him.

On Monday night Thiem was also staying at the same hotel as a couple of other players which had seen the fire alarm go off in the early hours. However he has had a full day of rest since then so I think Thiem should be ready to go, although I do wonder how much is left in the tank for the remainder of his 2017 season.

On the other hand Pablo Carreno Busta has inherited Rafael Nadal's loss and takes over for his compatriot who has pulled out with an injury. This is a big achievement for Carreno Busta to make it to the World Tour Finals with his strong run at the US Open showing he is more than a clay court specialist.

However Carreno Busta has not produced his best tennis since that run to the US Open Semi Final and he has a 1-5 record on the main Tour since then. Carreno Busta has taken some fairly comfortable losses to the likes of Steve Darcis, Daniil Medvedev, Albert Ramos Vinolas, Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Nicolas Mahut and there is no disguising the fact that he is playing players of a higher level here in London.

Thiem has dominated the head to head having won the last four matches between these players and I do think the Austrian is the superior player on what is a pretty fast hard court. He has the consistency to break down Carreno Busta when both play on the clay courts and I think the experience of playing a match on this court only gives Thiem more of an edge.

Fatigue is a concern, but I think Carreno Busta has lost his way in the last couple of months of a career season and I think Thiem winning this one 6-3, 6-4.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

ATP World Tour Finals Update: 3-3, - 0.64 Units (12 Units Staked, - 5.33% Yield)

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