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Sunday, 10 September 2017

US Open Tennis Day 14 Picks 2017- Men's Final (September 10th)

The final Grand Slam tournament of the season comes to a close on Sunday with the men's Final between Rafael Nadal and Kevin Anderson the centre piece of the final day.

This far from the end of the tennis season with two months still to go before 2017 is in the books, but the last Major of the year is clearly a big moment. The World Number 1 Ranking will still be up for grabs in both the ATP and WTA Rankings and there is also the matter of the ATP and WTA World Tour Finals to be completed.

This will be the last tennis picks until at least next week when the Davis Cup Semi Final matches are played. The two tournaments this week both are on the WTA Tour but they are not the deepest events and it feels a good time to take a few days before heading back for the Asian swing tournaments that will begin in ten days time.

Rafael Nadal win 3-1 v Kevin Anderson: This does look like a men's Final where the favourite Rafael Nadal should have too much for his opponent Kevin Anderson who is playing in his first Grand Slam Final. With some of the biggest names on the ATP Tour not even making it to New York City and the draw being loaded in the top half, Kevin Anderson has taken advantage of a kind draw to reach the Final.

There is little doubt that this is by far the biggest challenge Anderson will have faced in the US Open this year as he takes on the World Number 1 Rafael Nadal who has won multiple Grand Slam titles let alone play in many more Grand Slam Finals. The experience edge clearly belongs to Nadal who has been improving in each passing Round in New York City this tournament and should be able to secure a second Slam in 2017.

The biggest danger for Nadal is that Anderson has an unplayable serving day, but even then it would be a big ask for the South African to win three out of five sets against an opponent he has never beaten. They have known each other for twenty years, but on the professional circuit, Nadal and Anderson have met four times and played ten sets with the results being 4-0 and 9-1 respectively to the Spaniard.

Any time this match sees a rally go beyond four or five shots should see Nadal have the clear edge and he has also been serving well enough to prevent Anderson from really building some momentum. The feeling is that Nadal is likely going to get this done in straight sets, but Anderson's aggressive play in the tournament should pay off at least a little bit if he is confident enough to keep going for his shots.

Nerves can't be factored in because we simply don't know how Anderson will respond to a maiden Grand Slam Final. He can either take this as an opportunity he never expected to receive, or he could be let down by the nerves and believing he won't get another chance to win a Slam and that is hard to determine until you see both men playing.

Nadal has admitted to nerves of his own in the past and the chance to win another hard court title and move up to sixteen Grand Slams in his career will be something he has to move to the back of his mind. He has shown he can do that and I fully expect Rafael Nadal to be holding the title at the end of this match.

While the most likely scenario is Nadal winning in straight sets, I do have to say Anderson has impressed enough to take a small interest in him winning a set. He has served big and played with aggression off the ground and those two factors combined have been problematic for Nadal through his career when opponents are able to find their marks on the court.

It is unlikely Anderson can do it long enough to win the match, but he may sneak a set out of this one and backing Nadal to win the Final in four sets for a unit looks the way to go.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal Win 3-1 @ 3.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)

US Open Update: 41-37, + 6.10 Units (152 Units Staked, + 4.01% Yield)

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