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Friday, 8 September 2017

US Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2017 (September 8th)

For years the New York crowd have been desperate to see Rafael Nadal take on Roger Federer but for the sixth time they have missed out by one match.

The US Open won't suddenly grind to a halt though and Day 12 is set for the men's Semi Final matches. You would have done very well to predict the final four standing in the tournament this year in either the men's or women's events although Rafael Nadal has been leading the market for some time as the favourite in the men's tournament.

Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: As soon as Andy Murray decided to withdraw from the US Open, the entire field in the bottom half of the US Open men's draw had to have felt a real opening had been created. The likes of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer were on the other side and so it is perhaps not a big surprise that two outsiders have made it through to the Semi Final to be played on Friday.

Neither Kevin Anderson nor Pablo Carreno Busta have ever made it to this stage of a Grand Slam event before and there is the factor of how they deal with the obvious nerves they will be experiencing. The difference between the two players may come from the Anderson serve which is likely to offer so many more cheap points than the one Carreno Busta is blessed with.

The latter may be the superior player when it comes to rallies that need more than five shots to be won, but Anderson is playing with the aggressiveness that is going to be tough for Carreno Busta to deal with. Anderson will have every chance to attack the Carreno Busta serve and he is playing with confidence to take on his shots which is going to give him the slight edge as long as nerves don't mean the South African is missing shots he has been making throughout the tournament.

Both players will be confident after Anderson has moved through the draw with just two sets dropped compared with Carreno Busta who has won every match in straight sets. However the latter has had a favourable draw for much of the tournament with the stand out win over Denis Shapovalov one that could have easily gone another way.

Anderson's win over Sam Querrey was a superb performance and the way he was returning that day should mean he is able to create the break points he needs to win this match. He did beat Carreno Busta 6-3, 7-6 when they met in Montreal a few weeks ago and Anderson was the dominant player that day.

I think that will happen here too and I think Anderson is able to win the match in three or four sets with the break points coming his way more often than they do for the Spaniard. I will look for Anderson to come through with a cover of the handicap in this one.

Rafael Nadal win 3-1 v Juan Martin Del Potro: Everyone in New York City were talking about the chance of seeing Rafael Nadal vs Roger Federer at the US Open for the first time. Both players had been improving going into their Quarter Final matches, but no one had given Juan Martin Del Potro the script and he once again got the better of Federer at this tournament.

The confidence can't be in a better place for Del Potro who has previously beaten Federer and Nadal in back to back matches at the US Open. The first time was in 2009 and saw Del Potro crush Nadal in the Semi Final before beating Federer in the Final in five sets, but this is a player with a greatly reduced backhand wing than he had eight years ago.

The forehand and serve are hugely important for Del Potro if he is going to get the better of Nadal in this one. We have seen Nadal struggle against big servers who are able to control the point from the off and someone like Del Potro can certainly do that.

If Del Potro is struggling with the serve, Nadal is going to be able to get his forehand going into the the Argentinian backhand and that will give him a big edge in the match. Nadal has been serving well enough to keep Del Potro from taking control of those games too and I do think he is going to wear down a player who has openly admitted that he is feeling all the tennis he has played in the legs.

At the outset you have to think Del Potro will have plenty of belief and I can see him taking one of the first two sets played. At that point I can see the Nadal forehand beginning to break down the Del Potro game and Nadal should be able to get the better of him.

I don't think Nadal will win this in straight sets with the way Del Potro has been playing, but I think he will be too strong and can move through to the Final in four sets.

MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal Win 3-1 @ 3.80 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

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