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Sunday, 31 August 2014

US Open Day 7 Picks 2014 (August 31st)

It just seems like the week is flying past as we have reached the Fourth Round of the women's event at the US Open and the conclusion of the Third Round of the men's event.

The results for the picks have improved as the week has moved on and it was another successful day on Saturday, but that doesn't mean I can be complacent and expect another strong Grand Slam performance without the necessary research.

Hopefully Sunday will provide another move upwards for the tournament with the following picks.

Marin Cilic win 3-1 v Kevin Anderson: This is a battle of big-servers but I expect Marin Cilic to have too much off the ground to win this match, although he might need four sets to get the job done.

Cilic is the more aggressive returner off both first and second serve and he may be able to push Anderson back a little despite the big serve the South African has.

In the longer rallies I would fancy Cilic to have the more consistency, but the Anderson serve means he is likely to take a set either with a late break of serve or through a tie-break.

However, the Croatian should be too strong when the match is said and done and should move into the Fourth Round.

Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Richard Gasquet: The battle of two Frenchmen who perhaps should be making a grander impact in the Grand Slam events takes place on Sunday and I think Gael Monfils gets the better of Richard Gasquet.

They have had many close matches in the past and Monfils is leading the head to head thanks to wins in their last two matches and also has a win over Gasquet at the US Open.

I believe the extra athleticism that Monfils has causes Gasquet some problems as he forces him to look closer to the lines and there should also be plenty of breaks of serves both ways in this exciting match.

At the end of it, I expect Monfils has a little extra in the locker and can see off Gasquet, possibly after four tough sets.

Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 games v David Goffin: Grigor Dimitrov is one of the more recognised faces on the men's Tour these days, but he is quietly making his way through the draw at the US Open.

He has been in impressive form when you consider five of the six sets he has won has come by a 62 or better scoreline and I expect he is going to have a little too much for David Goffin too.

It has been an impressive summer for Goffin who has won plenty of matches and is set to re-enter the World Top 50 in the Rankings, but Dimitrov should be the one controlling the rallies in this match and I expect the Bulgarian will have the edge in the match.

There is a real belief that Dimitrov is capable of winning a Slam now and I think he comes through this one with a 63, 64, 64 win.

Sara Errani - 3.5 games v Mirjana Lucic-Baroni: Sara Errani came through a tough Third Round match against Venus Williams and I think she is going to be able to back that up against Mirjana Lucic-Baroni who has already caused two big surprises during this tournament.

Lucic-Baroni beat Garbine Muguruza in the First Round and then stunned one of the favourites for the title by beating Simona Halep in the Third Round.

I expect someone like Errani to try and bamboozle Lucic-Baroni by forcing the latter into more and more shots and then trying to extract errors from her game. Lucic-Baroni had lost 7 matches in a row prior to her run at the US Open where the confidence has come from coming through the qualifiers and then winning three main Round matches.

This might be a step too far and I think Errani comes through 64, 64.

Maria Sharapova - 2.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: I have been a big critic of Caroline Wozniacki over the last few seasons, but I have to admit I have been very impressed with her since she split from Rory McIlroy.

It seems to have revitalised a career that was seemingly stuck in neutral and Wozniacki is a big threat to win even the biggest of tournaments, something I didn't really consider her even when she reached World Number 1 in the Rankings.

The match with Maria Sharapova is a fascinating Fourth Round encounter, and I think there is a chance that this goes to three sets. However, I think Sharapova is mentally hardened to deal with what Wozniacki throws at her and has dominated the head to head between them.

As I said, I do think Wozniacki is improved recently, but Sharapova can win this one 63, 46 64.

Lucie Safarova - 2.5 games v Shuai Peng: After reaching the Wimbledon Semi Final earlier in the season, Lucie Safarova must feel she has the making of a Grand Slam Champion, and I do expect her to be too good for Shuai Peng.

It has shown from Safarova's three set wins in the last two Rounds that she has a new found belief in her game, although Peng has been impressive with two straight wins against higher Ranked players to build her own confidence.

I can see both players having their success in this one after they played a tight battle in Doha earlier this season, but Safarova should be able to pick up the cheaper points behind her lefty serve.

Another match that might go three sets, I fancy Safarova to come through 62, 36, 64

MY PICKS: Marin Cilic Win 3-1 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

US Open Update: 9-6, + 7.86 Units (27 Units Staked, + 29.11% Yield)

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