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Monday, 11 August 2014

Cincinnati Tennis Picks 2014 (August 11th)

Sometimes you have to take a step back from the tennis picks that you are making and try to figure where things are not quite going right- that was the situation at the end of the tournaments in Canada last week when I seemed to get things so wrong after a very positive start to the week.

It meant the picks ended the week with a losing record despite the early positives and I decided to take that step back.

There were some strange results through the week that didn't help, none more so than the Jo-Wilfried Tsonga winning the tournament in Toronto. It was an impressive title win with victories over Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Roger Federer during the tournament and it will be interesting to see if Tsonga has turned a corner after an average 2014 to this point.

Tsonga was serving huge in Toronto, but his return of serve had been just as impressive and I am looking forward to seeing how he backs that up in Cincinnati this week.

It wasn't just the men's tournament that saw some surprising results- Maria Sharapova was beaten in Montreal by Carla Suarez Navarro, while both Petra Kvitova and Serena Williams lost matches that most would have expected them to win.

All of these results in Toronto may have muddied the waters for the likely winners of the final Grand Slam of the season at the US Open which is now only two weeks away, but that could all change again if the event in Cincinnati is more 'predictable'.

After the struggles of last week, I really hope I can bounce back this week after making some very poor picks to be brutally honest.

With the layers catching up with the tennis markets, I will have picks up from the first day of the tournament very soon.

Jeremy Chardy v Philipp Kohlschreiber: Both of  these players have decent serves and heavy groundstrokes, but both can also be too inconsistent to really challenge the very best players consistently.

Of the two, Jeremy Chardy might be in a good position as the underdog to surprise Philipp Kohlschreiber as he has never lost to the German on the professional circuit and was in decent nick last week in Toronto even if he was beaten in the Second Round.

The loss to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga doesn't look that bad considering how well Tsonga did the rest of the week and it is arguable that Chardy was the player who pushed him the most in a week where Tsonga beat Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Roger Federer.

That kind of form may prove a little too good for Kohlschreiber who has lost the last three matches he has played and I like the Frenchman in an underdog spot here.

Gael Monfils - 4.5 games v Federico Delbonis: Federico Delbonis has had a decent season on the clay courts in 2014, but he has yet to transfer that form onto the hard courts where he has lost all five matches he has played on the main Tour.

That includes another First Round loss last week in Toronto and he may find himself on the wrong end of another defeat by Gael Monfils if the latter can bring in the form he displayed in Toronto. Monfils pushed Novak Djokovic all the way last week and has the athleticism to really give Delbonis plenty of problems, while the weight of shot can also keep the Argentinian on the back foot.

It will be the key to the match for Monfils to remain aggressive- the Frenchman can be guilty of becoming comfortable in rallies and believing in his own ability to get plenty of balls back in court, but that might play into Delbonis' hands.

Delbonis might be able to settle into the match if that happens, but he has generally been beaten comfortably on this surface this season and I do believe Monfils can come through 63, 64.

Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: The last few weeks on the Tour haven't been the best for Dominika Cibulkova, but she has generally produced her best tennis on the hard courts and can come through this tough First Round encounter with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

The Russian has been in better form of the two players, but her movement may be exposed by Cibulkova in this one, especially if the latter can bring in the aggression she is capable of showing.

However, it does have to be remembered that Cibulkova has lost three of her last four matches on the Tour, including a surprise defeat to Heather Watson last week in Montreal. That would be a concern if she is not quite to form because Pavlyuchenkova can certainly produce tough tennis which makes her difficult to beat.

Their last two matches have been won by Cibulkova, but neither came easily and this may need three sets again. However, I think the diminutive Slovakian can come through 63, 46, 64.

MY PICKS: Jeremy Chardy @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Final10-13, - 6.40 Units (46 Units Staked, - 13.91% Yield)

Season 2014+ 30.08 Units (1271.5 Units Staked, + 2.37% Yield)

Season 2013+ 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012+ 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011+ 82.02 Units

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