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Friday, 29 August 2014

US Open Day 5 Picks 2014 (August 29th)

After a poor start to the tournament, there has been an improvement in each of the last three days to move the week back into a positive, although that doesn't mean I am any less fed up of these retirements.

One of the three landed in my favour, but both Marin Cilic and Kei Nishikori looked in great positions to win their matches comfortably before opponents decided to pull out. Now both Marcos Baghdatis and Pablo Andujar probably had fine reasons to do so, but that won't help me feel any better when players fail to cover in situations where they should and I feel some profit has been left out there.


Jelena Jankovic - 5.5 games v Johanna Larsson: Johanna Larsson is coming off a big win over home hope Sloane Stephens, but all she has really done is put an exclamation point on the poor season that Stephens has been having.

Facing Jelena Jankovic should prove to be an altogether more difficult prospect for Larsson, especially considering she has been comfortably beaten in their last two matches.

Jankovic has been having a decent, if not a spectacular year and she has every chance of surpassing the 46 wins she achieved in 2013 with a couple of decent runs. The match up looks a good one with the consistent Serb able to extract errors from the Larsson game and I am not that surprised that the latter has won just six games from four sets that they have played against one another.

I would imagine the Larsson win over Stephens has boosted confidence to make this a closer match between these two than the last two matches, but I still believe Jankovic comes through 75, 62.


Grigor Dimitrov - 7.5 games v Dudi Sela: Grigor Dimitrov barely came through a sloppy second set against Ryan Harrison but was still a comfortable First Round winner and I would be surprised if he can't back that up against Dudi Sela.

Sela... The bane of my life earlier this hard court season with a couple of decent runs and surprise wins, but it is asking a lot of him to knock off a confident player like Dimitrov who truly believes he should be at the business end of every tournament he competes in.

I would expect Dimitrov to have a lot more joy attacking the second serve of Sela than he did against Harrison, and I also believe his ability to make a number of balls is going to extract errors and give Dimitrov the chance to dictate things in this match.

The last time they met ended in a close three set win for Dimitrov, but I would say he has improved a lot since that 2012 meeting and expect this one to be a little more routine.


David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Bernard Tomic: You know I haven't really gone near a David Ferrer match since the French Open as it has seemed he is not quite himself and a number of his results since then have confirmed my doubts.

However, I still think he has the mental fortitude to take care of Bernard Tomic in this Second Round match as his ability to make balls is surely going to frustrate the young Australian. It hasn't been a great season for Tomic who suffered an injury that kept him out earlier in the year, but he has won a title on the hard courts during this summer.

That came in Bogota against limited opposition to say the least and Tomic has not been very consistent since then. Ferrer has had some strange results too in that time, including dropping sets in the most bizarre fashion and that would concern me in this match.

However, I think mentally Ferrer is still as good as ever and that is the factor that could see him come through while covering this number of games in four sets.


Ivo Karlovic win 3-1 v Marcel Granollers: I was looking at a couple of ways to back Ivo Karlovic in this match, but I have settled on him coming through in four sets against a Marcel Granollers who has had a poor 2014 season.

Ivo Karlovic still has the monster serve that made him so dangerous to play, although it is not the all-conquering weapon it had been at the peak of his powers. Nowadays, more and more opponents begin to get a good feel for what Karlovic brings, but an unconfident Granollers is perhaps not the man to take advantage.

However, the fact that more and more players are getting into the Karlovic service game means there is every chance that Granollers can win at least a set, especially with the lottery of the tie-break to get through too.

I do think Karlovic, despite a generally poor record in Grand Slams, will be too strong for the Spaniard when it is all said and done, but a small interest on a 3-1 win is the call.

MY PICKS: Jelena Jankovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic Win 3-1 @ 4.20 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)

US Open Update: 4-4, + 0.54 Units (15 Units Staked, + 3.6% Yield)

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