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Saturday, 30 August 2014

US Open Day 6 Picks 2014 (August 30th)

More positives came out of Day 5 and I will be hoping to ride this positive trend through the Third Round matches that have been scheduled in New York today.

Flavia Pennetta - 4.5 games v Nicole Gibbs: This time last year, Flavia Pennetta crushed Nicole Gibbs in the First Round at this tournament, but I would be surprised if this isn't a more competitive match, although I still believe the Italian will come through.

Pennetta has beaten the likes of Shelby Rogers and Taylor Townsend this summer, the former in the Second Round at the US Open, so taking on another young American hope won't put any additional pressure on her, or so you would think.

She is going up against a player that has had two surprising wins already, but Gibbs has played a lot of tennis this week to get to the Third Round and she hasn't had a lot of experience of the top WTA level.

With hours spent on court, Gibbs may struggle to contain Pennetta who has heavy groundstrokes and I expect the latter can use those to punish the American and eventually come through 64, 63.

Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: You have to respect Leonardo Mayer who has shown he is more than a clay court specialist this season with a strong run at Wimbledon and he is in the midst of a career season.

Of course, Mayer is still most comfortable on clay where he won the title in Hamburg this summer and I think Kei Nishikori is going to wear him down and eventually prove too strong.

The first set should be very close, but I think Nishikori will be very difficult to pull back if he can take that set and should then move away from Mayer.

Nishikori can't take the match for granted though and must continue working hard as Mayer does have a decent serve that can set up the easy points, but I think this one ends 76, 64, 63 for the Japanese star.

Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Sam Querrey: On first glance, I though this spread was giving up too many games in favour of the big serving American Sam Querrey, but Novak Djokovic has the weapons to nullify that serve and then move forward.

In the last four meetings between these players, Djokovic has won almost half the sets (5/11) with either a bagel or a 61 scoreline and doing that again will give him every chance of surpassing this number.

Djokovic looks a man on a mission this week as he looks to add another Grand Slam title to the one he won at Wimbledon in July and I don't think he will be taking this match lightly. Querrey remains dangerous, especially if he builds some steam, but Djokovic should force the American to play enough balls to extract real errors from him as he goes closer and closer to the lines.

I will be looking for Djokovic to come through with a 75, 61, 63 win.

John Isner Win 3-1 v Philipp Kohlschreiber: These two players have had some incredibly close battles through the last few years, but I think John Isner gets a measure of revenge over Philipp Kohlschreiber for losses in the last 2 US Opens.

Isner has won all 4 other matches they have competed against one another, but this will be anything but straight-forward and a straight sets win would be a big surprise.

Expect tie-breaks and one break of serve could win any set, but I think the American will have learnt from the last two experiences and this time turn it around against Kohlschreiber.

Stan Wawrinka - 6.5 games v Blaz Kavcic: Stan Wawrinka has struggled for consistency since winning the Australian Open, but he can still move safely into the Fourth Round as long as he can maintain his focus going into this match.

This is the kind of match that a Grand Slam Champion should be dominating as Kavcic doesn't have any particular overwhelming weapon.

Any player that has won a couple of matches in a Slam has to be respected though, although Kavcic suffered comfortable losses to Nicolas Mahut and Benjamin Becker this summer, while Wawrinka is another level higher than those players.

As long as he keeps his focus, which has been a issue for Wawrinka, I would imagine he can come through 64, 63, 64.

MY PICKS: Flavia Pennetta - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
John Isner Win 3-1 @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)

US Open Update: 6-5, + 3.34 Units (20 Units Staked, + 16.7% Yield)

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